Peter Diamandis: "Exploring Exponential Technologies" | Talks at Google
Thank. You jack a force. Of nature here. So a pleasure. To be here I want, to actually, tee, up a bunch, of quick conversations. That, we can carry, to our fireside chat and conversation. With you so, first of all I'm clear. That were alive, during the most extraordinary time ever in human history, all right there's never been a, better time to be alive other than perhaps tomorrow, we're, at a time where each, of us have more power than nation-states. Had at. Heads, of industries, had just. Decades. Or century ago we. Forget, how, amazing, the world is right we forget that a hundred years ago in 2019. And 1918. In that, one year alone, 50. Million people died from, the Spanish flu right. 20, odd million people died from World War one scale. That to today's population, you'd be talking about a quarter billion people that would have passed away this year so, we forget despite. All of the negative, news on. What I call the crisis news network and so forth we're still living in the amazing time. It's. Also true that I think none of us really, understand, how fast the world is changing. We're. Living in a world where. Technologies. Across. The board are growing exponentially. You know computation, sensors, networks AI robotics, 3d printing synthetic biology AR Viera blockchain all those technologies, are themselves. Accelerating. But it's the combination of, two three or four those together that, are. Accelerating. Things add, to that the notion that in the next six years we're going from 3.8, billion people connected on planet Earth last, year at the end of 2017 to, eight billion people connected, right we're adding four billion new minds, into. The global conversation have, never been there before and that's, a massive empowerment. For acceleration, add to, that the fact that we've got more capital, available. Flowing. Than, ever before we hit all-time highs, in venture, fund seed funding, crowdfunding. Icos. Sovereign. And and so more capital, flowing at the same time that all the technology that we're using to, make stuff happen is de, monetizing. Faster than ever before, right the human genome was sequenced for, a hundred million dollars in, 2001. Today. It's circa, 500 bucks Illumina. Is projecting, $100, in one hour as is the Beijing genome Institute so, there's, more money everything. We need to do is cheaper, right look at Google, Cloud computational. Capabilities. And so, more, people more, money cheaper. Stuff more experimentation, and what. It means is we're entering a period of a hyper. Acceleration. Right. As I think about how fast the world is going it's. Not slowing down and in fact you. Know it's an acceleration, of the acceleration, that we're hitting so. That makes for an amazing amazing. Future and one, of the things that I focus on a lot is the, notion that there is no problem we cannot solve all right, and I'm clear, that the right combination, of technology. Talent. And treasure can, take on any problem. And and, my, message to a lot of people around the world is. You're. Now empowered if you are sick and tired about a problem or you're inspired, to solve something you, can. It's. A matter of do you do you give yourself permission to be that audacious, and go do it 100. Years ago the, only people could actually solve, a problem at any scale were. The. Nation-states. Right, or were, the robber barons, the industrialists. And even, all they could do was unleash. Monetary, policies, or troops. Or so forth today. I just. Want you to feel and understand how empowered, you are to. Find a problem and solve a problem that's what gives me hope that. Entrepreneurs. By definition are individuals, who find problems, and solve problems and there, are more and more entrepreneurs, with more and more data with more computational, power with, more and more access to capital. Solving. More and more problems so. I would give you that perspective. For, a moment, another. Area I'm, excited about I. Serve. As founder and executive chairman, of the, XPrize Foundation Jack, is. For, a while now since the earliest days one, of my trustees. And, so. We we, focus on. What. Are the world's biggest problems, they're not being solved and how. Do we set a very clear objective and say I don't care you, know who you are where, you went to school what you've ever done if you solve this problem it hit these metrics you win and so, the very first XPrize was, from my you, know, nine-year-old, childhood, passion of spaceflight I gave up on massive. Being the way I was we go to space I did, the math and your. Chance are right mark one in a thousand, of, being a NASA astronaut, I had a better chance of becoming an NBA all-star at, five five than I did a NASA, astronaut, and so. When. I read that Lindbergh in 1927, crossed the Atlantic to win a $25,000.
Prize And looked at the numbers. Nine. Teams spent four hundred thousand, trying to win this $25,000. Prize and. Raymond. Orteig spent. Nothing on the losers only, paid the winner and Lindbergh. Was the most unlikely guide to do it so I said okay I'm gonna create a prize for spaceflight he's. Gonna be a ten million dollar prize ten million was enough money to inspire the. Entrepreneurs, but not the Airbus the Boeing the Lockheed I don't want the large players just, buying the prize I wanted true innovation. That. Ten million dollar prize inspired. Twenty six teams around the world who spent a hundred million dollars they're all optimists, and. Burt. Rutan backed by Paul Allen who, we just lost. Funded. That, prize. Development, and won it was spaceship won Richard Branson came in and bought the rights to. Create Virgin Galactic. Richard. Has publicly announced he expects a flight, to space, approximately. This month so, fingers, crossed we'll see something is what three weeks left in the month or there abouts. And. Then. We. On the heels of that created, an amazing, board very proud that we've had as board, members and benefactors Larry, and Sergey, and Eric and Ann Ann, and a multitude of Googlers, in the earliest days, and. Folks, like Elon, Musk and Jim, Cameron, and. Ratan. Tata and so, we've. Launched a bunch of prize let me give you a few, that are active, right now just for fun. Elon, funded a global learning XPrize, and. We asked teams can you build a piece, of, Android. Software that. Could take a child in the middle of no place from. Illiteracy, to reading, writing and numeracy in under 18 months and, so. Sundar. Very kindly gave us 5,000 Android tablets, with. The World Food Program we went into Tanzania, where we are right now, we interviewed. Hundreds. Of villages, and we. Found 2,500. Kids who knew no swahili no English and put. The tablets, in their hands we had 800 teams, enter the competition. 141. Ish delivered. Software. We, narrowed it to five finalists, those five finalists, are in 500 tablets each in the villages right now we're measuring the impact on the child the family and the village and then. We're gonna open source the winning software. The. Goal would be that this becomes part of you know Android kernel for example in the notion that every time an Android device is built it's. A teacher right, we're building a billion teachers a year we.
Have To go in those villages and set up our there, so, that's one XPrize, we're doing. One. That we just awarded, is called, the water abundance, XPrize. Now, half the disease burden on planet Earth is due to unclean drinking water and so, we asked the. The, team could, you pull. Water, out of the atmosphere there quadrillions, of liters of water in the atmosphere when, it you, know when it condenses on particles, we call it rain, and. Could. You pull the app water out of the atmosphere 2,000. Liters for. Under two cents per liter from all renewable energy and. We. Just awarded the winner of that competition. About. A month ago I, just. Came back from Greece and, we. Have a an X Prize going on right now on, on. Mapping. The ocean floor we've, mapped less than 5% ocean, floor the. Physics of salt water makes it very difficult and so, we. Said to win this prize at 7 million dollars put up by shell and by NOAA you've. Got to build an autonomous vehicle that. Can launch from land. Go out some, some. Distance, tens of kilometers into the ocean then, go down 4000. Meters. And. Map 250. Square kilometers, in 24, hours on its own return, and provide the data right. So fully, autonomous, large-scale, mapping. We're. Down to five finalists, that are in in Greece. Right now off the coast. Of. The mainland and, I've. Met two of the five teams one team is a group of 13. Academics. And grad students from Germany, other team is two people at a switzerland and the team is out of japan and it's, amazing what they're doing it's transforming. What's. Possible, in ocean one, of my favorite exercise is going on right now is called the avatar XPrize and we've, asked teams to build a robotic avatar, so. A robot so, imagine I'm not here I'm back in Santa. Monica where I live and at. Home I've got on pair of VR goggles and, a, haptic suit and as. I'm moving around the, robots moving on as I'm looking at here the robots looking at you so it's basically, a remote. Avatar. Telepresence. To. Allow you to go and, and. Solve. A problem do a medical. Diagnostic. Go into a disaster, zone and so for us we have over 400 teams entering, that competition, so. A lot of XPrize is going on we can dive into more when when Jack and I talk or you. Have your questions, another, area I'm passionate about is human longevity I'm. Clear we're gonna be able to add 10. 20 potentially, 30 healthy, years and everyone's life right. Google's, got a massive, investment in Kaliko, besides. Calico there's, a multitude, of different companies, going on right now company. Down in San Diego Sam, you med that's using. That's manipulating, wind, pathways, which is a communication pathway, that's. A thirteen billion dollar private, company because the results are extraordinary, they're in Phase two clinical trials on. A multitude, of different. Anti-cancer. Hair-growth. Anti-wrinkles. Osteogenesis. I mean it's incredible, what they're doing, you. See companies, like unity Biosciences. Which are working on synthetic medicines to, kill, senile, cells cells. That have. To, the hayflick limit and have stopped, replicating. And then are becoming inflammatory. Agents if you can kill those cells and make. Room for new cells to generate from, endogenous stem cells the. Organism. Regenerates. And you. Get an extended, lifespan. Another. I have two companies in the longevity business, one. Is in the stem cell business called cellularity. We. Have, the. World's, largest, bank. Of placentas. Turns, out you can think of the placenta as the, 3d, printer that manufactures. The baby and that, placenta, is the richest, source of stem cells and so, those stem cells delivered. Back to an aging, organism, can extend life 30, plus percent as we, age our stem, cells in our bodies, and all the compartments fall off very rapidly over, time and so. One of the reasons for aging, is we lose the ability to regenerate ourselves to repair ourselves or the stem cells in our body they will, drop hundred to a thousand, X in population. But, they undergo epigenetic, changes, mutations. And so forth and they're not capable. As they were before so. Stem. Cell replenishment, is another area. One, fun one, that. That. I co-founded, called human longevity we're, down in San Diego will. Be opening around, the country and. What human longevity does, is, you come in for three hours we. Sequence your genome while 3.2, billion letters we do a 30x, sequencing, on you we sequence your microbiome, we, look at the, your.
Metabolomic, Aliy the top hundred plus, proteins. In your and chemicals, in your micro small, molecules in your bloodstream we, do a full body MRI head-to-toe. A brain, MRI brain vasculature. Coronary. CT lung, CT and then, we feed about 150, gigabytes of data into. Our system, to. Determine two things number, one is there anything going on inside your body right now that you should know about and, number. Two based upon your genetics, what. Are you likely to die from and, how. Do you find, it before so, numbers. Are pretty telling the price point initially for, for. Hli that what's called the health nucleus, facility, was, 25,000, bucks so it's not cheap all, these people who came were very. Well-to-do. Patients, so to speak. The. Price has dropped down to five thousand, and three thousand, for subsequent visits but still, then. In, two, percent, right so we're, in a room of roughly, a hundred two of you have, a brain, or a or deque aneurysm, you don't know about which. Is kind of shocking two, percent and this, is for population, two older than you are here for 50 and older have, a, have. A high grade cancer, tumor. 3.4. Percent have, a significant, cardiac condition atrial, fibrillation. Or. Bundle. Branch block or, so it like II and, we find 14 percent of the people who've come through have, significant, findings they take action on immediately so, the faculty matter is we're all optimists, we. Think everything's fine in our body and then. Until you go to the hospital, at which point you're like oh you know I didn't, know that and but. I'm a pilot, I fly a couple of planes before I take off make, sure everything's in the green but. For most of us we don't know that eventually we'll all have wearables, we were talking about I have my aura ring, here right with about about. 14 15 different, sensors that measure, my pulse wave form my temperature my acceleration and give me sleep, data, I've. Got my you know Apple watch I've got a small. Little. Fr, ID chip implanted over here got my business card on it. Completely. Useless but eventually, it'll be something as well but. We'll all have this data uploaded, to, give, us minute by minute how we doing, and the goal people, say I want to know if anything's wrong with me, of course you want to know and. You want to solve it right then at the, very beginning when it's most solvable, right, so it's going from sick here which is what it is right now we take care of you after you're sick to, healthcare, do, you find anything at stage 0 so. I'll. Close. Single our University ray and I ten years ago. What. Month are we in ten. Years ago two months ago we announced X. But now in single our University, I was. Reading Ray's book The Singularity is near and I said there's no place in the world you can go not Harvard MIT not Stanford not super or whatever it might be that you can go and actually, get an overview, of all the exponential, technologies, and. Understand. What. They're able to do in, convergence. So we created, a graduate, program it's, now called the global startup, program our goal is a thousand, startups a year and then. We started. Executive. Programs for six day programs where executives come in and we. Give them an overview of what's going on in all the technologies, and how they're converging, and, it's really about.
You. Know awareness. And education. But, it's it's we're growing you. Know a good, clip of 30 to 50 percent year-on-year, so. I'll pause there and bring. In maestro. Great, opening talk thank you Bob let's start with connectivity. 1969. ARPANET. It's taken, 50 years since then to get three billion, just, about 40%, of the world connected, four, billion people not yet connected, to. The Internet to everything, that in this room we, work on we build on we engage in and other companies, up and down Silicon, Valley and around the world talk, to us about a world the, numbers indicate not, from us but from third party sources that well, it took 50 years to get to three billion we, might get the next three billion that is the doubling of the number of people Internet, in about, within, six maybe seven years yeah very very soon, paint. Us a picture of that world the world where suddenly. You. Know huge swathes of countries, and. Others that are not online today suddenly become part of not just the information, flow, but also the global economy, buying selling, putting. Stuff into markets talk to us about that kind of world a great question. So first of all the. Layers of connectivity, that are coming online right 5g, is probably one of the the biggest. Incredible. Explosions, coming online. We'll see test deployments, in 2019, and really, full deployments, in 2020, and onward, and you. Know 10 gigabit, connection, speeds means, you're downloading a movie in a fraction of a second you take your new LG TV set and put it on the wall you, plug in the power and it's got you know 500 channels, Sutton so, 5g is gonna is gonna spread like kudzu on the planet but, on top of that obviously loon. Has now been spun out as its own company, you've, got 1.2 billion dollars of money from masses on that soft Bank backing. One. Web then. You've got you know Elon, who is gotten F a F. CC permission, for, 11,000. Satellites. You. Know a set, that a 4,000. Satellite layer in a 7,000, satellite layer called. Called. Space link right Starling. Which. Is incredible, and then you've got. Terabit. Boeing, satellites, in a mio orbit so we're, basically covering. The entire planet. With. Bandwidth, and then. On top of that we're gonna all have all of these micro, cells on, non-licensed. Bands I think, eventually we're all going to be dribbling bits all the, time and our AI is going to be negotiating prices. On, different. Mechanisms, so that sounds like a great future dribbling bits dribble dribble. Bits we're all gonna be dribbling bits you know I think we're all gonna have our own personal version of Jarvis eventually, right, Google. Now and an, echo, and Missouri are all all versions of that which. Are which, you get permission to have access to everything your, email your conversations. Your your. Microbiome. Your your bloodstream and, and. It's transacting. Constantly, but so. Eight billion. People potentially. Connected, in the next six years, as. The, price comes, down now the question, is can they afford these devices, and. So can the poorest people in the world before those devices so I've, seen years ago. Engineering. Drawings, for a $20 cellphone or $20 tablet there, is a price point at, which the price the device gets so cheap that. Google is going to give them away right and, Amazon is gonna give them away to get the, traffic to. Get the data to get the transactions. So, I, think, we are heading very quickly towards a world of eight billion people that are digitally, connected, and, if. You do the math right. I mean and I I'm, screaming, this from the rooftops and no one's talking about this which drives me nuts because four, billion you people connected, and if they're just transacting, you know on, the average ten dollars a day that's, tens.
Of Trillions of, dollars, flowing. It's a global economy that no one's talking about and, and. The, markets, all of these four. Billion new digital you. Know digital, newbies, are all going to want insurance and banking and. Education. And health care you're, also going to be creating content right, they're gonna be critical are now there's a certain number of dominant. Players creating, a lot of the content and also of course is distributing content, and crowdsource content but, four billion people are not yet part of that conversation and. And, what's. Gonna happen is, they'll generate. Content they'll generate revenue, but, they're also going, to demand these. Services. At de minimis you. Know freemium, prices, and it, and, I talked to insurance companies and banks, I say listen this. Is coming to see but that's not my marketplace so. It's fine it's not your marketplace today, but, some entrepreneur, within 50 kilometres of ground zero here, is working, on delivering, value, to those individuals, when the new business model and then, when, it starts working they'll bring it back to New York and Chicago, and, eat your lunch there great, let's, switch gears because we have a limited time let's, go open with genomics, the first. Genome, sequence Craig, Venters you know was about three billion went down to a hundred million hit, a thousand, now about five hundred and as you mentioned probably, we're on the way to a hundred dollars or even less and, of course the analysis, with that is as important, as a sequence to itself and that's starting to ramp up the bioinformatics around, it. The, estimates, are that right now in total, putting aside smaller. Genomic, tests but in terms of whole genome, sequencing, there may be are a few hundred thousand, mats of a million people who maybe have had, a head of seven plus billion people, when do we get to a critical mass that, helps us understand, the, significance. Of billions. Of those base. Pairs that we don't understand, yet the sequence significance, of in other words we, have a lot of good sense about. The usual five hundred that are cancer, drivers that are oncogenes. We don't have a good sense of literally billions, plus, of some of those, you know base pairs in sequence tell us about the critical mass we need to start, to understand the sample size that we need to really drop it so so, we're getting amazing, results. With tens. Of thousands, right now at HLI, I can't I can't. State the, stuff until it's, published but you. Know traditionally. We talk about the, exome, the part of the genome that codes for proteins, and yes. Too has been euphemistically, called junk DNA but. It's not junk DNA none, of its junk DNA it's, all in some way structural. Or coding or, control. Segments, and it's interesting that as, you look at enough large enough population you, start to say listen these.
Segments, Of DNA are protected. Any mutation. Here is lethal to the person right. So we, start to discover by elimination, and by subtraction. Fascinating. Parts of the genome that are worth looking at and the, other thing I might just say is it's the correlation. What was really exciting is the correlation between genome. And then rich phenotypic, data right. Well we've got your. Genome and then we have full body MRI and, coronary, and heart CT and metabolome and so forth then, you start to really correlate, AHA that's. What this does right, now I was gonna get to methylation. Right, now genome, sequence coming down but the ability to get to epigenetics. In terms of methyl groups things like that talk, to us about all the other rich information, that's necessary to draw, those conclusions so I think, one of the things that is true is this, next decade is going to be just discovery. After discovery, and I think AI is gonna play the most is is. The only way we're gonna make sense of all of it the amount of data that's coming out, and. I. Remember. When I was in medical school what. Got me on this path of one, of my massively, transformative, purposes, is making. A hundred years old into 60 how do we have add a hundred to cognition the aesthetics, and mobility that we had at sixty I remember, watching a TV show on long live sea life that some. Whales. Could live hundreds of years sharks. Could live four or five hundred years Turtles, two six seven hundred years I was like if they can why can't we write. It's either a software problem or a hardware problem but we need to swim more yeah, we have to be in a water park cool, our body temperatures down but. But. I really think we're going to start to unravel that, and understand it and let's jump to another area of health care which is our brains and you mentioned that we're going to live longer and it's already happening in a number of countries but. That also now is revealing, greater populations, with Alzheimer's, Parkinson's neurological. Diseases we. Have we've, had a good handle, so far on cardiac, diseases, morbidity. From chronic has actually come down diabetes. Is, on the rise but there's some you know hopes there but. Talks about the neurological, diseases yeah so we, have, cardiac. Conditions. In our 50s and 60s we have, cancers. In our 60s and 70s and, we had neurological. Disease in our 70s and 80s and the fact the matter is just for contact, that's a bright future I like that, until. You prevent it right life is short until, you extend it and and so forth but, the. Human body was never intended. To live past age 30 I mean, just to put it on the table here right you would go into puberty, at age 13, you'd. Have a baby and, then. By the time you were 26 your baby was having a baby and back. Then 100, thousand years ago before whole foods and McDonald's, was around right. When food was scarce, the. Last thing you wanted to do for The Selfish Gene was to take the money out of here at grandchildren's, mouths and. Now compete with them so, you do, the best thing you could give your bits back to the environment but. Of course that's changed, now and we're. Beginning to extend, life and as we extend life we run into new problems. There. Is. Amazing. Drugs, in Phase two clinical trials right, now, we're. Seeing impact, from sin, oolitic medicines, we're seeing impacts from wind, pathway manipulations, on, cancers. And, and. Alzheimer's. I. Think. One, of the areas that is super, exciting as well it's a whole field of brain-computer interface, right. My last count there's probably a billion dollars a year going into interfacing. Your neocortex with, the cloud, in. Buildings not far from here and so. At the end of the day we're. Gonna learn a lot about how the brain works and, the. Root causes of these diseases as we have over and over again but, a lot of its gonna come because our ability to sense and gather data and analyze, the data is you. Know. Billions. Trillions, of times you know better. Than, ever let's, turn to one of your first passion space. Let's, talk about really space travel, that's we. Hear from Branson that it may be imminent. Virgin. Galactic may, be launching imminently with paying customers, and there's been a long line of thousands, of people putting their.
Bets In, terms of their down payments on getting, a seat on that ride which. Is it's great to see that any Virgin, Galactic ticket holders here in the audience so to curiosity. Ok, well. That's the customers potential exactly, I'll take a check later. But. But talk to us about what. You, see as the odds that we're gonna be a multi-planet. Species within, say 10, years 20, years 50, years sure, we, obviously have, the potential, the technology, I don't think that there's, doubt that we can actually get to another planet now but, tell us about the will and the mobilization, to, make that out yeah so, probably, the the single most important. Driver. That's, making, that happen is, the. Individual. Passionate. Actor. In this, case in. The form of Elon. Musk and Jeff Bezos and Richard Branson and just. Past, Paul. Allen and it's, interesting right a lot of these individuals grew. Up in the case of Jeff Webb known for 35 years since the early days of CEG's I was founder. Seds and said and Jeff, ran that Princeton chapter a. Member. Meeting Jeff after he started Amazon so what he doing with this Amazon thing and. He, goes well I'm gonna make a lot of money there and spend it on space no. Really and and, Neil ons committed, said, I will spend all his money on opening up space that is his both of them are that committed, and I think a lot of it was those. Who were born during the Apollo and, shuttle era, got. Enamored. With this vision right from Star Wars and Star and all of those things and then NASA, never implemented. It. Never never, paid off on the deal and so, now you've got individuals. Saying we'll, do it. I've. Known Elon since he sold PayPal, and watched what he did with with, with, SpaceX, with the Falcon one and one Ian Falcon nine and heavy and I would, never bet against him he is dead, set on making that happen and I think he will you. Know he set a target at landing, in 2024. On the Martian surface okay. Listen I'll give him an extra four years. But. Could, he get there by 2028, I would. Bet on him over any government, hands down and. Then Jeff is sort. Of the the, tert the tortoise in the race right he's, committed a billion dollars a year and he's just that. Is his, and his endgame, and, so. I think we're, gonna do it I think it's gonna be a function, of. You. Know I don't think governments, can take the risks anymore, that, were inherent, in the early Apollo program, days its, way to failure. Is not an option for them and therefore risk, is no option either but. Individuals. Can, say I'm. Going to do this I mean. You know, there. Is a Tesla. On a, earth asteroid. Return. That's insane. I mean just like like, game over point, yeah. You. Mentioned a number of great entrepreneurs, and we can see how they're changing the world so let's talk about entrepreneurship now yeah, here, in Silicon Valley we know the power of entrepreneurship we see it we feel it there's other key entrepreneurial, centers around the world but it's, not spread, evenly, enough yet it's not as inclusive as it needs to be and could be and not. Only is that the case we're missing out on the talents, of many of those people from diverse backgrounds that, could be part of the entrepreneurial. During. Lift and is earning what, are your thoughts around how to change that game so. First, of all we're. Dematerializing. Democratizing. And. D monetizing. All the, tools for entrepreneurship, right. So it used to be that to, be an entrepreneur. You needed to have computational. Power you need to have an Ethernet cable or a modem. Plug or, whatever and you need to have you, know now obviously, with Google Cloud and AWS. You have all the computational, power you want. By. The, number is by. 2023. I, believe, there'll be 300 billion, dollars available, in crowdfunding. Which. Means anyone, around the world with a good idea can launch a crowdfunding campaign to get the capital so capital becomes less of a restriction. Obviously. Google makes the world's information available, so what used to be scarce. Resources. I, mean, bad with I remember back in 2001, I had a stealth. Company, called blast off my number one expense was Akamai, on bandwidth, to send video to people was like ridiculous, and now it's, nothing so. We're, literally everything. You need to be to, to. Create, an entrepreneurial, startup, is becoming. Available globally, at, lower. Lower costs, and. So, it's. Now the, number one, scarce. Resource, that I see an entrepreneurship, around the world is mindset, so. I was just in Greece at an. Su, Athens. Summit, meeting. There with heads, of the country and the entrepreneurs, and they were saying what do we need to do to.
Become, More innovative it's a country of 10, million people it's. Like one. Google. Sized success, story dwarfs. The budget of the country so. It's like you need to create a mindset, of. Entrepreneurship. You to have the you know some venture capital would be great but, failure. Needs to be an option so. A lot of Central, and South American countries if, you, fail it's a black mark for life right. Here, we call it success at X you know you celebrate, a failure every week when something gives up their their their. Company. And say we're gonna spend our money on our time someplace else better that's, amazing, so it's teaching, that. That, mindset, of failure, I had this conversation with write to talk to one of our fellow trustees, who. Who, in India it's really, hard if you fail you're, screwed and so. You don't take, steps and so. He, wanted to sort of dismiss, that ethos. And so he was like we're, gonna celebrate failure, we're, gonna celebrate a great idea that was worth trying that, failed and give. This person their next and next shot, so speaking that mindset breakthrough and then we'll turn to one or two questions so it it's if you want to line up at the at the mic if people have questions. You. Know you've. Now, su is now trained, I don't know thousands, of people it must be now an exponential, thinking and through XPrize and others who've also touched a lot of people and changed a lot of people's mindset, about what is possible. You. Know when you go back to the. News reports on polio back in the early part of last century it's, written in such a way that people never thought it could be over I come today. When people speaking about cancer, yes, incremental. Progress, but, most. People when you ask that they don't believe that in their lifetime we're gonna see the management, and containment, you know of cancer so identified. For us three or four things that you think we should apply exponential. Breakthrough thinking and we're, not doing today we're gonna look back 30, 40 years from now and say we. Were people like polio, you, know looking at polio the same way that, we should have had a different mindset. Sure so let me talk about where the places we're doing X prizes as a, perfect example right so, first of all we. Are in. Final, steps for, what, I hope will be a hundred million dollar cancer XPrize for. Going beyond liquid biopsy, but very early detection. Something. Like a blood, test, or something like a you, know a pap smear or, something that is tens, of dollars very, easy to do type of detection. We're, also working on an Alzheimer's. XPrize same, order of magnitude, one. Of my favorite prizes that I want to do right now is a fire, detection, and extinction, XPrize the. Idea that we don't know when a fire starts, is. Ridiculous. Right, so this is a simple XPrize for. Me a, team. Has given five hundred square kilometers.
Of Forest, land and you. Have to detect a, fire. Above a certain looming level let's say five campfire is worth it right and. You have to put it out within ten minutes and. I don't care what how you do it with drones with water balloons whatever the case might be I think if, that technology, exists. You. Insurance. Makes. It possible and deploys it across all forest lands we don't have devastating, forest fires again right so I'd, love to do that working. On a. Earthquake. Prediction, XPrize I think, it's a massive, data, play there's, no way in the world that. A magnitude, 6 earthquake doesn't. Believe. Digital. Trails before and Alisha's know, 30, Hiroshima, bombs of energy. Working. On a. Hurricane. Trajectory. Prediction. XPrize so, it turns out that. That. You, know all those wide area. Projections. Of our hurricane caused, devastation, and if. You can measure wind velocity, at 10 meters above. The center, of the eye of a hurricane, that's. The missing data so is there a drone, or technology, for doing that accurately. There's. Energy XPrize, we're working on a feeding the next billion XPrize, for. Massive. Protein, food production, the way that we grow our protein, today this, is a planet, for cows if you didn't know, right. One third of our non ice landmass, is used, a Peter is used for is. Used, for livestock, production, and. That's. Crazy, with, co2, water, energy, and so forth so we've. Been working with a lot of the companies. That are, in the beginning of cultured, meat to, create a large-scale, cultured, meat XPrize for. For. Meat. And plant or stem-cell meat and plant-based derivative. That tastes better than what you buy and it's. Finally I know you've been thinking about housing for a while in terms of the ability to medicine. From next prize but in general, can we provide housing you know for folks so with that we have time for two questions we have two questioners mostly Zechs prizes, have to do with science and technology. Or when. They evolve humans, they treat humans as individual, units how. Would you do an X PRIZE that involves, connections. Between humans. This. In this the social space what would they be groups of people you. Mean invite, a behavioral. Prizes yes, yeah, so to be clear. X. Prizes. They've been successful so far have been for widgets devices. Transportation. Modes and things like that where, people can go and have a very clear measurable objective, and can rapidly iterate we've. Talked about doing competitions, between. Regions. Like cities, or companies. And so forth one of my favorite XPrize ideas, and, actually the very first person ever mentioned this was Larry Page would. Be a it's, a two-part prize one would be a happiness, X it's called a happiness XPrize could you build a device that could. Physiologically. Measure your state of happiness like. If I asked right now are you happy number seven right and if the, times gonna be a 10 or - whatever it is but. If you can actually accurately, measure they, even creative you could create a policy change at Google and then, measure didn't, make people happier or not so. I think the, ability to measure something, first, and then, create state changes, afterwards, would. Be my. My approach to that but we haven't done it successfully yet we keep on banging our heads against it and continue to but thank you for that you, talked a lot about accelerating, technologies, in the year Torterra future and my, question had, to do with do. You think there's any risk of these accelerating, technologies, being misused by. Bad actors in the shorter near term yeah I'm thinking of things like China's, Social Credit System which just seems kind of like I don't know a nightmare to me but like.
What Are your thoughts on that yeah so the, answer is of course, and. I would just say listen the Social Credit System first. Of all anybody, who went through school and got an a a B or C or had a you, know review, we've, had that all through our lives it's the negative externalities. That are the issue with that but being, able to tell a person, how there's, good parts of a social credit system if it's for, the upside not for the downside. Just, to be clear not to defend what they're doing they're to be very clear, but. Yeah. I'm clear. That even though the world is getting better by almost every, measure. You. Know the, cost of food energy water healthcare all these things are plummeting as life, is going up as you know childhood, mortality rates. Have plummeted from 45%. Of. People of kids dying under age five to now 4%, all these, metrics are getting better and better and. I. Think they'll continue to we're, still gonna have terrorism, we're still gonna have warfare, we'll still they have a whole bunch of things the, thing that gives me the greatest hope, for. For. Not being decimated, is that. It's harder or harder to do anything in secret. It's. The flip side of loss of privacy right. That there, are cameras all the time everywhere, right a single, autonomous car with, a wide are generating, 750, megabytes of data as it's going down the roads everything is being imaged whatever, augmented, reality goggles, we're all gonna be wearing or gonna have you know millimeter cameras. Looking out you, know. 1.6. Million drones flying over the sky is the United States so everything, is going to be visualized, and so your ability to do something in secret becomes. Harder and harder and that. Lets. Me sleep a little bit better at night but. Ultimately, when, I do my calculus, the. Question, is are there. More good people in the world using these technologies, or. Bad, sure. We're. Not leave that to you there thank, you thank you so final word of advice, to those in this room on livestream, and then watch this on on YouTube around the world, you're. At a company like Google you're, another company you're managing five 10 20 people maybe. A hundred people what, is your advice to somebody as they're growing, their career, as they're building products, to, kind of tap into the kind of you know exponential. Focus, that you have and you kind of live, every day but in, the practical, day-to-day sense, what, is your advice to folks so, first. Of all don't do anything you don't absolutely love doing I, don't. Have to say it more, clearly than that I did. Do anything big and bold in the world and make a difference on the planet is hard, it's. Extraordinarily, hard, and if. You don't love doing what you're doing you're, gonna give. Up before you get there right so any. Of my successes. You know overnight. Successes after 11 years of hard work and I, just did not I refuse, to give up and sometimes there's, an important point to give up, but. I didn't because you know for X Prize like is my zero-g company which anybody here flown in zero-g. Marquez. In again you, know it took 11 years to get FA permission, to do this with, a 727, had a chance to fly Stephen Hawking no zero-g was amazing.
But. I just refused to give up I mean I was like battling, the, FAA and I was saying you're gonna die or retire before, I give up was my attitude and. Sometimes. Because, only because I cared about it that much. The, other part is and, this is one of the ethos of Google. That the world's biggest problems, are the world's biggest business opportunities, right. I mean I tell people probably. The, company that's made the biggest positive impact, on the planet is Google right. In terms of and you don't have to be a non-profit to, create an incredibly, better world. And. Then you, know going to become a billionaire helped a billion people so. It's those kinds, of mindsets, I think that are. Convergent. With the power that you have and. Never astrum, underestimate, what you can do each. Of you are extraordinarily. Powerful, to solve problems, you just have to have that, committed, passionate human, mind great, Peter thank, you thank you very much. You. You.