Market update with Chartguys Chartman Dan
what's up what is up everybody this is special treat this is wonderful i want to say thank you thank you thank you let's get this party started here enough of the music i should really never really never say that enough in the music but this is kind of an impromptu live stream with uh you know by the way folks let me know if you can hear me okay um in the chat room there's an impromptu live stream with someone i respect probably among you know the top top of the list um you know i've been doing this for a long time not even as you know certainly not as long as this guy uh someone i respect a lot he's a great teacher a great analyst um and we've done streams before we've done stuff like that but um let's just get right to it we have chart guys from twitter chart man dan let's get my screen up here the chart guys you definitely want to check him out on twitter um if you click on that link chart guys it will take you right here to his webpage he's also i would say incredibly prolific um on youtube he's he pretty much streams every day and he's got a great team kind of behind him someone you definitely want to um check out real quick if you don't know him big chad's on twitter chad's trading on youtube check out the playlist playlists uh the spaces are great these are conversations i've been doing on twitter uploading them here um check out the quick market updates that's where this video will go check out the free version of my book trading wisdom i just put lesson 17 up yesterday that's the free version of my book available on amazon right now but might as well get it for free on youtube first and of course of course check out the master class tutorials i just uploaded a advanced master class from earlier this week and of course bitcoin live something i'm proud to be involved with i've been doing market updates there for four years uh something i'm super proud of but uh you don't want to hear from me you want to hear from the man himself damn what's up buddy thanks chad's glad to be here i appreciate you having me on again it's always a pleasure so how how you doing man how's um so what was the deal with the turkeys we saw in your window did you figure out the correlation in the turkey not yet we need some more data uh the turkeys are definitely increasing as the fall rolls around they're doing their their mating and their their hierarchy battles it's funny it's it's been it's really funny because i'll be there like all right i'm ready to go the bell's about to ring to the market open and i'll look and there's two turkeys staring me dead in the face well just reminds us that we're sharing uh this planet in this space with other creatures so i think those are good reminders you know good reminders so um so what's up why don't you just uh why don't you spit for us a little bit here i'll bring up your screen once you just kind of roll through tell us how you're feeling what you're seeing if you don't mind and maybe we'll just go from there yeah i want to do we'll do a little broader market analysis here of everything bigger picture and then i want to talk about rsi that's been a a nice topic that you keep touching based on and i can give a little bit more in depth of how i utilize it and i think that'll be a good discussion from here as well so i got bitcoin on the weekly frame and people always want to know is the bottom in and and the simple i always want to make trading as simple as possible i want to make clear statements so for me if the weekly ema 12 which is this red line if that is resistance i cannot be bullish bitcoin as far as the bigger picture bottom and if we just shoot up from here i would say oh i missed that move and i have zero regrets about that because probability wise i look at this setup and of course there's always a one percent chance 10 percent chance a low probability that the less likely scenario can play out but if you see the a chart is rejecting from a resistance line time and time again and we've rejected probably four or five of the last six times you just can't be bullish so get over weekly ema 12 and we can talk about maybe a longer term temporary bottom or permanent bottom whatever you want to call it then that discussion is open but if the weekly ema 12 is resistant then it's not even a question for me i can't have any confidence that a bottom is in because we're just setting lower highs and we topped out and set a lower high 25.2 and then we topped out most recently another lower high at 22.8 000 and i know you're yourself and myself as well we're we're very heavy into price trends and using those concrete levels not having the subjectivity of trend lines and things like that and so if the lower highs keep forming we are bearish where's our higher low brother that's the uh name of the game right absolutely we tried we tried to form one here and technically you know we're still holding 18-5 barely holding on at this point so there are a couple short-term levels from the last couple months that we're watching but again we would need a big reversal and sentiment as well because the broader stock market is still extremely weak and it is correlated hand in hand we can see the nasdaq already broke the low of the last couple of weeks bitcoin has not done so yet but it's knocking on the door of doing so and we are just again not seeing any time any type of trend follow through as far as higher lows and higher highs we had a big old bounce in stocks for a couple months but we never confirmed a weekly trend change we were missing that higher low and higher high that establishes supports that tilts the scales between supply and demand and yes it was a big bounce but we're in the process of giving back most of that so again just not really bullish in stocks and not bullish in crypto and just patiently waiting mostly cash and and waiting for that signal knowing that i don't need to nail the bottom i can wait until trends change and have the momentum at my back and be a lot more favorable in terms of risk reward entries for the bulls and we're just not there yet what about like commodities are you kind of watching any of those yeah i'm watching the dollar the dollar's playing a big role here and it's getting more and more popular with with people watching it this past year and it's the same thing if the weekly ema 12 this red line if that is support on the dollar it's bullish it's gonna all die hit alt i right on the keyboard i'm gonna die that's new to me what's that dude do it ah now it looks like bitcoin weekly right exactly yes that's awesome invert man i do that to challenge my bias sometimes it's pretty definitely that's a good that's a good trick i didn't know you could do it that easily good to know but yeah so if weekly ema 12 is there's an inverse relationship between the dollar i pretty much just view commodities crypto and stocks are over here and the dollars over here and if the dollar has weekly ema 12 as support it is bullish and it's really hard to be bullish the things on the other side because they have this inverse relationship so gold's been getting smacked silver's holding up better than gold recently i'm watching to see if that relative strength can keep up but commodities in general i mean oil's been dropping for months at this point so it's dollar strength and it's weakness most everywhere else at this point and there's little pockets of strength adam is a cryptocurrency that keeps showing us relative strength but yeah there are far more bears and so the trend is your friend and bears are having a good time of it in 2022. i think a lot of our viewers um are like you know crypto guys so what do you think about ethereum too i mean we talk about bitcoin and we've had you know ethereum versus bitcoin and they're inverse the dollar what you tell us what you think here you know so yeah ethereum's got a key support approaching as well the weekly time frame so i view how we just played out as a solid bounce off the lows 100 plus gains you know goals had a solid opportunity can we change the weekly trend with a higher low and higher high we pull back here's our higher low we failed to break the 2031 top we had to have broken that level for an uptrend yeah so we failed and now we're testing this low right now and if 14 20 breaks then it's just continuation of lower highs and lower lows would you buy there like 1280 if it dropped you know 1420 what do you think you know top of like a daily ascending triangle maybe i would be if if we could see if we broke 14 20 and start i like looking for wedges you know that as well and so wedges for me show a sign of exhaustion in one direction so if we start breaking supports and lacking follow through and what i mean by that what's a lack and follow through if we break 14 20 and go straight into a daily bounce then okay i start paying attention like okay the bear break didn't see much follow through we're still in a weekly and a daily downtrend so i'm not getting aggressive as a bull but i'm paying attention a little bit more i say okay we we broke straight into a bounce that shows me not a lot of bare conviction and follow through so i'm watching for that other direction but as far as targets you know i'm not really i'm not really one that looks and says at this price level i'll be interested because there's many different ways we can get there we can get there in a straight drop we can get there in bear flag after bear flag we can get there and the broader market and the dollar are doing something different so i can you know say all right i might get interested at 12.50 but then once we get to 1250 it's not an automatic buy for me that just means all right now look at everything else and see if things are aligning for a good risk reward trade so do you ever set low ball bids then i mean it sounds like maybe not because you want to kind of see the price action when we get there yeah i don't honestly i've got i've got too much ptsd from 2017 where you could see i mean the lack of liquidity it's definitely a much more liquid market these days with with a lot larger larger market cap but back then i mean if you set a bid sometimes it could be 10 below where the price is and you could still be put in a very bad position if you're not near the computer so that ingrained in me that i need to be near the computer to be in the zone essentially if i'm trading and the analogy that i gave is if i'm a marathon runner i don't get to choose when the marathon is i train for it the date is set if i'm a trader i choose when i trade and i can choose the times when everything is all aligned if before the marathon i twist my ankle or i i eat some bad sushi and i don't feel like running because i'm not my 100 percent i'm sorry you got to run it but as a trader no like i didn't get good sleep last night i don't have to trade today i'm not 100 so i want to be at my computer i want my comfortable setup i want my monitors and that's when i'm 100 anything less than that and i'm not giving 100 effort i can still trade but i just have to start with the base understanding this is not my ideal situation so you're choosing your battles right exactly are you doing like um alerts to know like when the price gets to certain levels you ever do any of that like you know your phone rings okay we're getting close to an area or you just kind of mark it on the chart and kind of just watch them you know give me triggers yeah i'll use some alerts um one of the things when we dive into rsi a little bit more is i like when rsi is at absolute extremes but on a lot of time frames together so dailies oversold the four hours in the low 20s the hourly just dropped to the teens the 15 minute the five minutes when you're in line like that we call that a super stack where you're stacking all these time frames that's when i'm starting to get interested in buying into fear and weakness you know because that's when we're in free fall sky is falling mode and that's where we were when we dropped on the initial break at twenty thousand down to seventeen five and then had a nice rally from there but that was when all time frames were aligning in extremes and that's one of the only times that i will look bullish based on rsi in a downtrending market when you're at those extremes on all those time frames so you want to talk about it brother you want to get to the rsi or what yeah let's do it so all right all right so with rsi you do tweet about rsi a lot and it's a it's a it's a confliction for me because i read the tweet and it's like like oh man i love the rsi it's made me so much money over the years but who you are talking to and your audience that you are talking to it's good information because you've got a lot of newer traders traders in their first year or two and to utilize the rsi successfully you need to be a bit more advanced in the game and you need to be you know you get into trouble when rsi is your first thing if you look at rsi is oversold i'm gonna buy no no no rsi is like step three or four so i need to know the most important things which are what are the price trends are we in a downtrend on the weekly are we in a downtrend on the daily what's the prevailing trend if we are in a prevailing downtrend using the rsi and oversold conditions is dangerous it's not a good indication the only time i will use rsi as a bullish signal in a downtrending market is the scenario i just described we are at historical extremes on a lot of rsi levels how do i know historical extremes i can scroll back on the chart and watch and then look at previous times but again i want all those time frames oversold because you could be oversold on the daily but if you're not oversold on the hourly it might just be an hourly bear flag it's about to see another leg down so so that for me is the only time i will look bullish due to rsi in a downtrending market the best time to use rsi is in a trending market and in the direction of the trend so an example is i'll use the s p 500 as an example the s p 500 is in a daily and a weekly downtrend right now yesterday we saw a bit of a bounce and that bounce from the low of the day yesterday this is the five minute time frame solid bounce 390 to 394's that's over one percent gain yeah but you zoom out we know we're in an hourly downtrend we know the result of that bounce is most likely to be an hourly lower high one of the pieces of the puzzle so that's my baseline understanding okay we're a daily weekly downtrend we're bouncing on the hourly from just about oversold conditions but i know that anything under the high of the day 395 96 is just an hourly lower high so i've now gone through a checklist okay i know where the trends are i know what the most likely scenario is on the hourly time frame then i get to rsi and i can use it as a bear rsi hits 70 on the five minute time frame for the first time on the day and that marked our hourly lower high that marked the peak for the bulls the best top of the bounce that they saw for hours and then we rolled over into fresh lows and continued the trend the prevailing downtrend on the hourly time frame so i call these back burner trades and i got a whole video on youtube if you've youtube chart guys back burners but it's essentially in a strong trending market you look for the first time rsi levels are hit so in this instance this was the first five minute rsi being at 70 and multiple in in a couple days so we look for that to be a potential bearish signal again i'm not just blindly buying or not just blindly shorting because the five minute rsi is 70. i am using it as a piece of the puzzle and establishing the trade game plan okay we hit 70 maybe i'll short a little at 390 430 and i'll have one more order a little bit higher i love scaling in and scaling out yeah i'm not an all or none trader because tell us about that for those who understand that's a big point what do you mean by that dan so early on i realized i should not expect that i'm going to nail tops and bottoms in the market sometimes you do and it's great but it's not the majority it's the minority of the time that will happen so i scale in and scale out where i will break up the dollar the size of the position let's say i want to have one bitcoin for uh a short i will look to either buy a half a bitcoin at this level and then a half a bitcoin a bit higher or i can break it down even further you know 0.3.3.3
and what that allows for is a little bit of wiggle room and a little bit of breathing room and that just doesn't mean just scale in blindly and that next thing you know you're in the hole because the trades going against you it's establishing part of the trade game plan so if i'm in half of a bitcoin just making up numbers short at 20 000 and another half short at 20.4 000 my breakeven is now 20.2 and i can do the math okay 20.2 is my break even if we get up to 21 000 what's the size of my lost pair is that too big of a loss is that an acceptable loss what's my target is my target 18 000 so my risk is 600 before i stop out and my potential reward is multiple thousand dollars to the downside is just establishing the trade game plan to ensure the risk and the reward are properly aligned meaning you always want more potential reward than potential risk and scaling in it just allows for again not needing to nail the top because if i use all the capital i want for the trade and i enter and it keeps going up a bit now i'm playing defense and i'm in the hole and i'm sweating a little bit i got to place my stop loss and it's just much harder it's much easier to stop out if you've only got one position so play around with it because this was a huge level up in my trading and crypto was a big aspect of that after the 2017-2018 run you know i used to 2017 i was all in market buying new highs and it would follow through and it was a thing of beauty but those are not normal market conditions and so i've talked to myself and many traders where changing from one order only to scaling in has been a game changer for them so are you um just staying on rsi and you you know i had a couple other questions that just jumped up from while you were talking i want to ask you also about like are you trying to just trade you know reversals continuations breakouts i want to touch on that but still in rsi are you using it all for divergence i don't think i've ever really seen you talk about that is that no good observation i don't and um it's definitely plenty of traders do so i know that there is potential use there so i'll never look at something that i don't do and say you shouldn't do this because there's a successful trader doing it somewhere you know someone someone's using eg clouds really well and and living their life on it and so for me i know that there's enough legitimate traders to use divergence that it can be useful but for me personally it's really not telling me things that i'm not getting elsewhere from price trend you know for me when i say a lack of follow-through and i'm looking you say we gotta bounce and we see a higher high with a lack of follow-through straight into consolidation i'm scouting a rising wedge showing me bulls are tiring and that's when a trader would look and say oh there's there's rsi divergence here as well because the price is still going up and the rsi is dropping so we're it's just a different way to visualize some of the same information and i just haven't found it useful and i'm in the point of my career where i want to be simplifying things rather than adding on first year or two absolutely add on new things play around and just realize that a lot of that stuff is going to be on the chopping block that you eliminate later i used to have tons of ma's the bollinger bands i used to have all this on my charts and i just slowly as time went on over the years just eliminated them because i was getting information elsewhere and it was just not really giving me much to be going off of that's a great point i think you um you got to find out what works for you you start you know you start with a lot of things you kind of trim it down and with rsi one of my biggest you know concerns is the divergent so i'm glad you're not using it i mean it's a bounded oscillator it has a fixed limit so people look for the lower high you know that's most the time it's a false signal like i like to use the on balance volume um did you ever use like stochastics rsi as well you know obviously you don't want to use both but if you yeah i i did have uh i did early in my career and then again i just saw there's these two things now under my chart yeah and they're telling me the same thing why i don't i don't need both of them so yeah i eliminated it that's a great point so let's it's amazing because uh two of the things i rave about are integral to your style rsi and diagonal lines right so um you know can we talk a little bit how you're playing those diagonal those wedge breakouts are you looking for you know like like um you know horizontal like a higher lower lower high for confluence that it breaks as well or you know how aggressive are you just triggering based on a diagonal uh break alone so again it's always it's it's never primary it's always down the list so what's the overall price trend so i've got on the screen right now coin coinbase which is a company i am not a fan of but i shorted them yesterday and so i was watching this price action on the morning where we have a big bull move on the morning and then we had a big pullback that was in part due to a group coming out saying hey we're short in coin that had an impact as well as the broader market weakness and so on this bounce here i was scouting a 15 minute lower high because for me we held a low of the day anything under the high of the day is a 15 minute lower high and so i'm watching this bounce and i'm always zoomed in for the details if i'm looking for a 15 minute lower high to be the result of a bounce i'm going to the two minute because the two minutes in an uptrend when that 15 minute bounce is happening and the loss of that two-minute uptrend is the first indication that your 15-minute lower high is being set so i would say if you're going to utilize rsi or wedges or just trading in general the two most important aspects are understanding how price levels dictate trends and then understanding how the different time frames relate to each other yeah and and a loss of the two-minute uptrend on a bounce is a 15-minute lower high being set that's a that's a standard that you can use it's obviously not every single time but as far as guidance it's a good one and i've got a uh image here and i'll tweet this out after we're done here but this is just a bit of a guide in terms of which time frames relate to the the other time frames and you're not going to be able to understand this looking at it it's a it's going to be confusing but i'll break it down i'll do a little video after this i'll do a video explaining what this means you better yeah so back to the example i'm scouting a coin 15 minute lower high i zoom in and i look for clues that the two minute uptrend is being lost and so i start to say okay here's our higher high on the two minute and it goes straight to a pullback and then we got another higher high and it's going straight into a pullback so whenever i see that it shows me okay bulls are starting to lose a little bit of their momentum and so at this point in time i had this just a visual guide i'm not really often basing things off of the trend lines only again it's always in conjunction with other things so i'm watching for weakness on this two minute time frame to show me the 15 minute lower highs being set and i also have back to the 15 minute i'm always cycling through these time frames i have 15 minute ema 12. i'm looking for a bounce and if we reject from 15 minute ema 12 i know it is a overall weak bounce so i've got a ema resistance i've got a two minute trend that is my guide and i've got signs that that trend is starting to slow a little bit because we're not seeing increasing volume here at this point you know the initial move there's some decent little bull volume there but you know our next leg's up there's nothing in terms of volume standing out for the bulls so we we break this rising wedge bearish and our 15-minute lower high is set and so my short was 78 50s or so right up in there and i exit half on the bear break and now my stop just goes over that high and i'm risk-free and and i let it play out and i eventually stopped out of some of that position because we did see the bulls hold the low and it did follow through a bit from there but i positioned myself in a trade i could not lose we're either going to roll over into the new low of the day and i'm going to have a big win where the bulls are going to save it which they did at least temporarily and i exited that portion of the trade break even so i love getting in breakeven scenarios and i do that through partial positions so that's brilliant do you want to talk about that a little bit more yeah so as soon as as soon as i sell half if it's in profit so again let's just go scale and scale out i scale in bitcoin twenty thousand and twenty point four thousand and i'm looking short and i've got a break even of twenty point two and i like like using the same position sizes so i can just do the math in my head you know nice and easy but if that's harder for you you can have a calculator i definitely take that for granted that i do simple math well in my head it's an aspect of trading that when you're on the fly it's very helpful but a calculator can help as well so i got my two positions breakeven 20.2 we start to pull back now on that pullback it's possible let's just say i'm shorting for a four hour lower high it's possible we hold the recent low so if i want to be defensive and conservative i will take half of my profit at let's say 19.8 so 22 20.2 average 198 i exit half my break even is now 20.6 and in an ideal world we've topped out right
around 20.6 or lower so our lower high in the four hour is set we pull back i take half of my profit and if i'm wrong i stop out at 20.6 break even if we never get back to 20.6 and we keep rolling over i've got a good position so selling half to change your cost basis of what break even is is what i do is as a more conservative uh mindset in my trading but just always remaining in once you break even the psychological burden that is released and it's just you are in absolute control and it's a very freeing feeling i love i mean you never want to let a trade own you right own your mental space you want to be able to go do stuff you want to be able to sleep and not worry about it so i really want to encourage people to listen to those words i totally agree i think that's brilliant um so what are we doing here man you know what do we think i mean it's uh it's a pretty bearish macro environment but still we have to trade the data that's in front of us which is historical right so you know what are we doing here i mean i'm sick and i like i said i like simple mindset and so after we had the bearish reaction to cpi numbers earlier this week and again if you're a crypto trader more and more because these correlations you got to be paying attention to the fed you got gotta be paying attention to this fundamental data or at least aware of when it's coming out because we know when volatility is coming we knew that tuesday morning we were going to see volatility it could have been a big bull move up a big bull moved down but we had not seen a daily trend change off of the lows we were extended to the upside and so the cpi numbers come out and we get a huge dump in response to that so i have a mindset right now with i am just not looking bullish until bulls give me a reason to look bullish i'm just i'm just shorting the lower highs so if we start you know weak on the morning let's just say and bitcoins drop in here i'm just patiently waiting for a 12 hour lower high right now bitcoin has been setting a lower high every single 12-hour candle since the cpi reaction and so if i'm looking for a swing trade i'm just saying you know if we keep dropping from here i'm not going to be in the trade and i'll miss some profit that's fine but i don't like the risk to reward for a swing bearish entry at these levels but the next time we bounce on the 12 hour anything under 22 8 is a lower high so i'm going to anticipate that a 12 hour lower high is the most likely scenario and then from there i will look to establish a short swing position and i'll use the shorter term time frame so the first indication that a 12-hour lower high is being set is a loss of an hourly uptrend because the 12-hour bounce will likely start with an hourly uptrend so again it's the understanding of how these all these different time frames interact with each other and overlap with each other and establishing most likely scenarios and then determining on your microscope you know what how far am i zooming in am i zooming in to the the hourly am i zooming into the five minute and that's that's important as well you know if you're a swing trader the five minute time frame doesn't really matter a whole lot to you right that's going to be taking up your brain space and it's going to be potentially confusing you keep it simple right now yeah if i'm looking at a longer term time frame sorry ethereum just broke that low oh it did boom 1410.
um sorry i'm watching live i'm kind of a d-gen like you we see it's exciting i want to ask sorry to interrupt so yeah like so you're just to reiterate a point i think you're making you know there's not a trade here but if you want it to short you need to bounce first you need to bounce into what you anticipate being a lower high using classical charting when the price is approaching what is a likely maybe lower high area you're switching to lower time frames which is the proper time to do that and you're using that multi-time frame analysis to help you time your entry you're managing your risk properly by scaling in you understand what your idea fails um is that generally describing your approach yeah you got it down and oftentimes if i don't have a clear price level where my idea fails it's a dollar amount so i like to have a dollar amount where this is my day maker this is my goal for the day and if i lose that amount i'm done for the day so i don't spiral into you know going on tilt and having you know blowing up oh there goes my week of profits so talk about that i've had you on before how do you handle these tough losses dan what do you do to kind of reset you know definitely get get off the damn screen you gotta you gotta get out in nature it's just such a uh an easy way to reset and remember what's important you know if you've got a family go hang out with your kid that's way more important than what's happening on the chart get out in nature calm your mind and just approach it you know with as a reset okay i made a big mistake things have to change i need to change my routine whether that's my sleep schedule my my exercise habits discipline is so important as a trader and it's not like i need to be disciplined in my trading it's i need to be disciplined in my life and apply that to trading and so if if i need to change something i need to change my lifestyle to help change my trading and my results and my routines in my trading so after a big loss i take a step back i take some time off i hit the reset button because you do not want to be coasting off those emotions again you lose a poker hand and you start going on tilt i need to make that money back and you're aggressive and you're risking your money more and that's the absolute last thing you want to be doing you want to call timeout you know if you're in the nba and the other team goes on a 10-0 run and they are just rolling you call a timeout to break their momentum so you call it time out in your trading to break the bearish negative cycle mindset and you go out in nature you reassess what's most important you establish a game plan i need to do this this and this to improve when i get back i've got the motivation to do it and i'm going to start from scratch i'm going to leave that loss behind i'm going to learn from it i'm going to reflect on what my issues were but i'm not going to take that loss with me when i come back to the screen i love it let's just quickly switch gears what are you planting this fall dan yeah so this fall i've got greens going now so salad and spinach and collards and kale and all that those that's the easier stuff that is a bit cold tolerant and i have a little greenhouse it doesn't really do a great job but it provides some frost protection but i'm just looking for the leaves are just starting to slowly fall on some of the trees here yeah so really looking forward to the the shift in the season how about you yeah i actually just planted a couple raspberry bushes i've got um i've got like a low kind of a lower light area i tried blueberries that weren't doing great so i'm putting some raspberry bushes in and uh most of the planting will be in the spring i'm doing roses and stuff like that but um yeah that's i'm trying to get some raspberries man those are doing okay in a little light i have tall trees around me so it makes gardening a little bit more difficult you know i had some blueberries die out this year and i'm going to replace them with raspberries so we're on the same page oh that's excellent um all right so let's see uh what about atom we had a question about that and folks we won't be going for that much longer because i know dan's got stuff to do we're honored to have him here you got to make sure to follow him um but if you want to ask a question maybe we'll get a few a couple of those in here we do have a great guest what do you think about atom dan so adam honestly i still don't know what this coin does and i don't care what it does but over and over again this year it's consistently showing us relative strength where you know it's not going to be able to to surge huge gains on its own but it holds up really well in the bare environment and then once bitcoin gets a bit of a bounce going it heads higher and so we do have you know a significant amount of follow through it's a completely different looking weekly chart than than what i just had up on bitcoin let's just quick quick comparison here that bitcoin with weekly ema 12 rejections and hovering around its lows and that's adam up near the high of the entire bounce and still up over 200 from its lows or right around that and so whatever's going on with adam people are there's supply and demand so the demand for adam is outweighing the supply and when you see weakness in big daddy bitcoin that leads to the bots in the algos trading off that correlation and they're adding downward pressure and this is showing us that if adam is disregarding the weakness in bitcoin the demand for adam is exceeding what the box and the algos are selling in correlation with bitcoin if that makes sense so whenever i love the pairing charts adam btc shows us that we are testing right now the strongest that adam has been comparative to bitcoin in the last many many months this is actually a pretty key little zone right here but if we were to clear it we could say that we are the strongest we've been comparative to bitcoin in the last seven months which is a prolonged period of time that's very notable and it's it's again consistent look at the ema 12 i love the ema 12 but you know we grind along it and hold it we hold it again we hold it again and we hold it again and so that's a great visual guide we can say that adam is likely to maintain its relative strength against bitcoin as long as the atom btc chart which is up right now has weekly or daily this is the daily ema 12 support that's a great visual guide and i love watching this and saying you know again keeping it simple we're in an uptrend if this ema 12 is lost something is different from what we've seen over the last two months it's a shift in the market environment and we need to recognize that shift because the same things we've been doing in the previous market environment are not going to work the same way in the shifting market environment so do you how do you separate um you know adam's bullish you know usd and definitely versus bitcoin um are you like are you able to play this chart knowing how bearish bitcoin is or are you able to just say i'm just playing this chart and i'm going to focus on the four corners you know of this chart you can you can i'll outline it so i'll say okay i know bitcoin is weak but if bitcoin is shaping up or maybe you know this this hourly bounce is shaping up and if bitcoin sees an hourly bounce from here even if bitcoin's just gonna bounce and set an hourly lower high but that bounce adam is positioned really well to benefit from it so adam could go up you know five percent for the bitcoins one and a half percent bounce so i will always reference bitcoin because if bitcoin's about to fall through support i don't want to be longing at him because even though it's stronger it will still be impacted negatively by that support break on bitcoin so it's it's aligning with you know i wouldn't long bitcoin in this spot but i'll along the the stronger coin because it is has a much stronger relative relationship what else is strong i mean i don't know what do you think about uh qlc have you um seen this one at all i have not uh let's see what do i have qlc on let me see i have it on binance there's there's some history there yeah yeah that's definitely it's it's definitely a low liquidity coin i could see that just by you know a coin in in two days is going up 120 percent yeah there's there's low liquidity there so just roughly always want to look at the dollar volume so for trading 100 million coins at four cents that's four million dollars so we're trading roughly 20 million dollars on the day so that's enough for me i like to have a base you know if something's trading less than five million dollars a day i don't care what it's doing it's just not enough liquidity and volume for me but uh if i'm you know if i want to be this is the kind of name that i'd be day trading so if i'm looking for that volatility and bitcoins boring and there's not much going on then this is the keep an eye out so back burner i mentioned back burner and rsi keep an eye out for this coin what happens when the fur when rsi hits five minute oversold conditions for the first time because i can scroll back here on this bull run and i can see in this bullish environment with uptrend five minute rsi is marking these longer term higher lows and it's only because this is in such a bullish market environment and it's in an uptrend it's in a daily uptrend and it just went you know significantly higher so that's the environment if we have a trend a strong trend and it's an uptrend i'll use first five minute oversold conditions to scout an hourly high or low again it's not just blindly assuming that it will happen it's scaling in a couple entries it's putting a stop where my dollar risk is acceptable i'm willing to risk this much on the trade and looking for five minute oversold to mark a longer term higher low and this is just a good example where qlc has been doing that on this bull run over the last couple of days there's not much out there uh in terms of relative strength right now it's a tough it's a tough spot and um how do you imagine you want to interrupt how do you utilize rsi out of curiosity i i don't i don't use it i've deleted it um i get it and you just the point you made like there's there's there's ichimoku traders who can trade circles around me and i totally understand that um i just don't i don't i use the on balance volume but most of the time i don't use any of that i'm looking at just um key moving averages like you i'm using the 8 ema using the 12. i'm looking at key horizontal levels and i'm using like japanese candlestick signals with the bollinger bands you know like ethereum just had a tweezer top at the upper bollinger so i was looking for weakness um just so many ways to crack an egg and you gotta you know find the way that works for you and that's what's great about the space um there's no one way to do it if there was i mean there'd be no edge there'd be no no edge for anyone so i just don't use the rsi um maybe i will listen to you maybe i'll take another look at it i honestly i would say just reserve it if you don't want to use it now absolutely don't but next time we're in a very trending market i mean when we're in blue sky breakout if i don't want to be chasing i'm buying the first five minute oversold or the first hourly oversold and that's when i call it my anti-fomo trades where all right i missed the breakout on this one but on the consolidation when we're looking for an hourly high or low i'll buy first five minute oversold and that keeps you patient as well i mean you know what you're doing and when i talk about it it's like i'm i'm you know i see people with the daily oh it's rsi is oversold i'm gonna buy here but you know the only way to get oversold is to be bearish and trends tend to continue so it's like i don't want to buy you know something bearish so it's true a lot of what i say is geared um towards newer traders um what about you do any forex i don't know that i've ever really seen you talk about that no no forex the next place i dive into will be futures i'm not i'm not a futures trader at this point but i do i do envy the swing trading aspect of the futures market where if i want to swing trade stocks i got to worry about gap up gap down all that yeah so futures will be next for me will you uh what do you want to wrap up with here man anything you want to say to the people uh before we send them on their way just big gratitude for everybody that's following along and in this market environment again this year is tricky there's there's obviously the bears are in control for the most part but there's swings in both directions and just be patient with yourself this game takes years and years and if the it's capital preservation right now and if you're struggling to trade stop trading and then focus solely on education and if you focus i say this so many times but the amount of traders and the chart guys that did well in the 2017 run-up and did very poorly and learned all their lessons and learned they didn't know what they were doing on the pull back down in 2018 2019 they learned they they focused on education and they smashed it in 2021 so we know we go through these cycles there's gonna be another bull cycle eventually so prepare for it and and focus on your education and go through ched's content and his books and and our youtube content and just make that when i was learning it was my full-time job and i said all right six hours today i am focusing on learning i'm gonna go through this content and i'm gonna go down the rabbit hole of macd and i'm gonna learn about what bollinger bands do and just establish your own your own criteria not your your roadmap your own roadmap of of education and treat it seriously but not too seriously because it is flashing numbers on the screen and you got a new book coming out right when's that coming yeah book three uh trading quotes i'm editing it right now i should i'd say by christmas maybe a little bit sooner appreciate you asking about that it's going to be super fun dan why don't you show us um like your group or kind of just give us give us a little bit of a pitch you know show us what you've got yeah so if you're new i always you know i'm not a salesman by any means i i love that we have a bunch of free content because it's always go check out our free content if you want to dive in deeper than then we got more we've got courses we've got you know our chat room i'll pull up the chat room right now where we just got a bunch of traders you know we got a thousand plus traders from all over the world and just sharing a bunch of information just constantly constantly stuff going on yeah but as far as the website go to our website and if you're newer to technical analysis we've got an intro course for free so technical analysis intro course take that as your baseline starting point and then from there you know explore your content explore our content we definitely have a lot of similarities some differences but uh i think that we both don't don't succumb to price predictions and and our emotions and that's the the two most important things in staying in this game long term what about your youtube where do i start because you've got like a trillion videos and you're using truly we really do that's the other thing if you want to go back and watch you know every single video from the 2017 2018 market we've got them all there like you can go back and look what was dan doing on this day yep but um go check out my favorite one honestly is market psychology and trading lifestyle this playlist okay there's a ton of good stuff there how to trade with patients how is trading like surfing just all these analogies bigger picture before you zoom in to the details and the trends and all that you got to have the right headspace and it's it's the less talked about aspect of trading that is the hardest aspect of trading and one of my favorite ones that i put out recently was looking back at psychology and mindset of a trader and i just go back and these are all the books that i read in my early 20s that helped shaped who i am as a person none of them with reference to trading at the time but in hindsight all of them absolutely built the foundational layer of the psychology that allowed for me to succeed as a traitor i love it man folks i mean for my people you can see why i'm a big fan of chartman dan um he's prolific he's honest he's he's experienced and he's a great teacher so you know big big recommendation from this end you got to check out everything this guy does appreciate you chad's we'll leave it here with a little dancing gift yeah i love it i appreciate you i appreciate you man um i hope you have a great great rest of the day great great weekend and all that all right you too brother love you love you too man take care bro all right uh let's get this uh wrapped up thanks again dan let's get this wrapped up of course big chad's on twitter chad's trading youtube uh my youtube feels empty now looking at all his youtube stuff but um what i can say is there's a free version of my book trading wisdom check that out i just did love lesson 17 that's the book that's available on amazon in four formats it's got great reviews i'd encourage you to check that out this market update will go under quick market updates and i'm probably going to add it to the long form interview series as well uh just check that stuff out if you and if you want to check out bitcoin live i'm a founding analyst i've been doing market updates there for over four years twice a week i'm sick i'm on vacation i stop and i do an update so i'd encourage you to check that out um i would encourage you to take your trading seriously you're going to get out of it what you put in um you know nobody picks up a guitar and can play stairway to heaven right right away so it's up it's up to you how much you're going to get out of this expect the journey to be difficult and long but if you are disciplined if you take care of your mind you take care of your body and you manage your risk right cut your losers add your winners you know and the rest is history so that's for me to you and uh for my good buddy dan as well folks thank you so much um finish it off with some dancing and i'll uh wish everyone a great weekend so let's get that music back up here you
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