限电后果: 中国制造业最长的增长期终结/中国4支失业大军的这个冬天特别冷/美国经济8月放缓后劲凌厉/Consequences of China's Power Cuts/王剑每日观察/20210930

Subtitle: Tina users Hello everybody Today is Thursday, September 2021 No. 30 Wang Jian welcome to attend daily watch a live broadcast of the program we have three theme of a consequence of China's manufacturing power rationing longest period of growth the end of the second day China is a four unemployed especially cold this winter and the third is the uS economy slowed in August staying sharp us about the uS economy uS economy there are some changes we look at the impact of power rationing to the Chinese manufacturing sector in September, the shrinking the end of 18 months to help the Chinese economy out of the impact of the epidemic expansion momentum September 30, the national Bureau of Statistics announced in September PMI purchasing managers index of manufacturing purchasing managers index 49.6 in August, below the 0.5 percent that is less than 50 What is 50 called? 50 called the ups and downs of the line 50 is more than the expansion of growth fell below 50 is contraction This is the National Bureau of Statistics released data from last year's March 1st into the contraction zone contraction in manufacturing fell explanation display data from the manufacturing sector breakdown supply and demand are two production index slowed in September and new orders index was 49.5 and 49.3, respectively, down 1.4 and 0.3 percentage points from these two data which is the lowest level since March production index than in August last year is 2020 since March 1st to enter the following 50 sub-industry perspective from a number of energy-intensive industries, including oil and coal fuel processing chemical fiber rubber, plastics ferrous metal smelting are below 45 show a very low supply and demand dropped significantly new export orders, export orders index fell 0.5 percent in September fell to 46.2

for five consecutive months of decline in the state of import index lower than 46.8 in August, 1.5 percentage points national Bureau of statistics division, said in September was mainly a lower level of high energy-consuming industry boom by factors double impact of energy consumption is limited to the manufacturing PMI fell below the critical point of high energy-consuming industries and the limited power of the Chinese economy a great influence NDRC be dual control energy consumption announced the first half of the dual-control target barometer of Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Guangdong nine a barometer of high energy-consuming plants provincial non-compliance rising energy intensity, Zhejiang, Anhui and other 10 provinces which are not standard manufacturing province have all been ordered to limiting the production of cement and steel and coke production decreased also in aluminum production 15 days power now is to analyze industrial electricity limited direct blow to the PMI 9 month fell Jiangsu and Guangdong power rationing began industrial users Shantou, Jieyang open 2 stop 5 is open 6 Dongguan October 1 stop us start talking about a few choice one analyst Luo Zhiheng said Luo Zhiheng is a large-scale brownouts limited production will lead to normal manufacturing production and business impact can be expected September industrial added value growth rate will drop significantly and is weak PMI will Vidy Comment the Chinese government will give an alarm if the government does not change its policy in the fourth quarter economic growth may slow further and will soon slow down the speed of the wave and then the village he said so, he said the power shortage caused by power rationing plus economic growth this year of real estate regulation the main driving force suffered a double blow to further economic slowdown is already inevitable PMI index is a leading indicator advance what is expected of it? Future prospects for the manufacturing sector is expected to undesirable impact on the manufacturing sector the largest power cuts are expected in the fourth quarter brownouts will continue to impact on the economy is still very large unique worth seeing what is it? The only worth seeing is the September non-manufacturing PMI non-manufacturing PMI is 53.2 rebounded by 5.7 percentage points back to the trend in which the expansion of the service sector business activity index was 52.4 He explained that because controlled by the epidemic outbreak in August affected by the flood in September began to recover so soon rebounded to above the critical point of this is understandable, but I think the situation is not ideal in September epidemic really is not ideal, I think the non-manufacturing PMI's expansion into the region is to balance Bureau a decline in the manufacturing PMI non-manufacturing PMI manipulation I think you see what is down the hotel to know the situation of the hotel you will not know the hotel well in August August hotel dining you how bad will in the expansion area Woolen cloth? Another immediate impact is very limited power of what? Is the Sino-US trans-Pacific shipping freight plummeted cliff-style slump we know because of severe pneumonia epidemic in Southeast Asia Wuhan last six months since a large number of other European and American Wuhan pneumonia orders all go to China invested in China to order a very large throughout the Southeast Asian What are the consequences of coming to China? This is one aspect of the surge of orders defensive measures worldwide port became operational efficiency strict ports dropped significantly mainly concentrated in China so do a lot of cargo traffic jam caused by a serious shortage of container outside the port in September and just Europe and America Christmas goods the peak of the shipping container freight forwarders so the price of a soaring 40-foot container from China to Scoop how much the price of the Spanish-American? Scoop $ 20,000 is four times last year had 5,000 20,000 So what has now become the most recent case? The most recent case is the sudden sharp price plunge freight China freight forwarder start position of the Sino-US trans-Pacific route sale of container What happens then? China is now the United States and the West to China to 40 feet we are talking about the price of 20,000 dollars of the US West Coast fell How much? 8000-9000 is 15,000 four days ago and then move forward is 2,000,020,000,150,008,000 9000 Para Para to fall to the current situation in China to the US West Coast shipping freight has fallen much? Fell 30 waist previous 13-17 per kg compared this situation to cut freight company that people who speak limited power to limit production led to fluctuations in the shipping market is mainly the production of goods out of production goods shipped out to the nearest traffic delay has begun to decline in demand began to reduce positions so there is no way speculation and there are part of the reason is the hype when you know a lot of the rise in demand for transportation of cargo when the company took the opportunity to live Hold position and wait for your number to come when he does not have if some people can not increase the fare increase would also give him the opportunity to earn a little of what the situation is? When the freight shipping company found out when the decline began to throw down on speeding up freight rates freight company so it is now hard to throw the case what is the position now? If you use you know September China's export slump will plunge slump this data, it must be the case since before the surge in inflation plunged China is now the result of limited impact on the global supply chain of power to limit production so we can see immediate results the United States began to emerge inflation is inflation in the United States has a relationship with the Fifty Cent say that we are limited power to limit production to make up the uS inflation that indeed there is a link, but a consequence of limited power on-site, but you said put their hands to prevent the chop other people to do that is no reason we repeat that back to power rationing Development and Reform Commission operation regulation innings Bureau is adjusting what? What did the original State Planning Commission say on September 29? Speak limited power of influence of the northeast Northeast Development and Reform Commission, said he has taken many measures to ensure a stable supply of energy this winter and spring to ensure that residents with safe electrical energy is what security measures include it? Including multiple channels to increase energy security for the release of coal resources and advanced it to increase production capacity and orderly Why coal imported coal is not enough? Earlier this year there were two mine about two cases of mine safety supervision bureau began to investigate what investigation? Mine production safety check each one can check the production of coal began to decline because of China's major coal is very backward in human labor as long as you operate under a lot of production is to increase what it would be dead with his accident occurs? With his skill level behind the entire production of a relationship So the dead exceeded the target and then pinch the pinch too hard coal production will decline but before we talk about it because manufacturing is booming export orders, export orders lot of it a lot of energy consumption is very substantial energy consumption but the great demand for coal is rising coal supply it increased by only 4.4

January to August so have seen coal prices rising coal prices rose Another reason is that imports of imported coal for two reasons. the first reason is that China now Australia trade war does not import coal from Australia, which is a human actions can change the other one is Indonesian Chinese imports from Indonesia Indonesia ran into it? Indonesia flood flooding harbor no way lead to the normal operation is not imported from Australia imported coal from Indonesia Indonesia floods have not come out although China's overall imports of Chinese coal consumption accounts for only about 8% up to 8% 8% but do not forget the number is very the large number of resulting in a rise in coal prices Development and Reform Commission said, we want to increase the release of coal production capacity of advanced what advanced production capacity? To not advanced not to say China coal mine will be out of a rising China mine Why? Because the price of hard coal production a good look at a hard time for it to produce a mine So what order to increase coal imports Communist Party daily to play this game of words his mother ordered sequence then what is the livelihood of the people adhere to energy security for the bottom line in fact, this word game to play all all all responsibility in whose body? In the NDRC's body and then he speaks of the total installed capacity of about 2.4 billion kilowatts peak load increases effective sixty million kilowatts peak power generation capacity can be increased to more than more than 1.2 billion kilowatts

say this is nonsense Why? Power generation capacity is not without power do not want to be too high because of a loss of coal power plants how to do it? What to start? Guangdong Provincial Development and Reform Commission began to adjust the price of Report No. 31 August it is about to further improve all speak perfect because I have very good action all I have to do to improve TOU pricing policy of October 1 What started enforce it? In fact, say in the end is the price picked up to raise electricity prices is capped raise electricity prices peak increase electricity prices by 25% and the central rate of nuclear power began to stand this time to rub Guangdong Nuclear addition to individual nuclear units CNNC Nuclear Power running at full capacity CNNC 22 units full power heat in in shutdown overhaul all at full load operation of the nuclear Group with Guangdong nuclear Power Group total there are 48 sets of running nuclear power plants and then took the opportunity to again cover nuclear power plant is estimated then that the original vice president of what Chinese Academy of Engineering, called Du Xiangwan came out to speak Chinese coming year under construction for six to eight nuclear power base for 2030, nuclear power accounted for about 8% this is a another what the other one is Russia, China began to help increase supply China in Russia to purchase electricity from Russia's state electricity company exports 9 No. May 30, said the Chinese side has received the request for additional power requirement is considering a substantial increase export volumes to reduce the impact of power shortages caused by the industrial northeast ongoing discussion about the feasibility of increasing the supply of transmission lines is between this year China with Russia It can provide up to seven billion kwh of electricity supply during the first half of this year 1.25 billion kwh how much of it fell by 7.2% year on year to know why the lack of electricity it our first theme to talk so much power rationing impact on the Chinese economy began to come out then you can see the exports began to fall the second we talk about the Chinese have four ranks of the unemployed had five large-scale wave of unemployment occurred especially cold this winter for 40 years since China's reform and opening up is the biggest in the 1990s by the Chinese plan a large number of state-owned economic transformation to a market economy workers unemployed laid-off hundreds of millions of the unemployed largest impact on society is great this time of the formation of a wave of unemployment What? Formed a Chinese civilian sectors of Chinese society on the formation of the city at this time this is the first time the second time in 2008 when the 2008 global financial crisis, mass unemployment of a large number of business failures in 2008 is the closure of enterprises manufacturing so the main mass unemployment of unemployed migrant workers are also concentrated in the city so the impact on the Chinese economy is not too great, but the overall economic impact of large Chinese cities overall economic impact on the final result in what? Wen's four trillion four trillion economic stimulus policies in 2016 is the third time in 2016 focused on the Internet industry in 2015 China's Internet financing will fall by half by 2016 China's Internet industry, venture capital money can not get into the winter thaw less than 2 years of funding in 2016 O2O industry is the next line to line in the industry that there is a traditional industry to provide Internet industry, enabling the industry is very large at the time of the Internet boom concentrated in O2O that money does not come without money how to do? because a large amount of funding strand breaks O2O companies began to go bankrupt many of them are thousands of people began to close down the enterprise funds strand breaks on the formation of an Internet of a massacre this wave of unemployment is concentrated in a number of Internet industry to So millions from that time began with the Internet-related venture capital industry entered the winter wave of unemployment but this time focused on the Internet industry is the fourth of last year 2020, Wuhan Wuhan pneumonia epidemic outbreak of pneumonia What is the biggest impact is? In fact, he has an impact not affect exports from the manufacturing sector as manufacturing exports is certainly not a lot of factories have closed manufacturing plants closed down, but it's time to return to work March 4 Yuefen resumption of production and a lot of it alive for the entire manufacturing industry for the industry Big but not so big, where is the biggest one? Services such as tourism tour is basically a tourism group off we all know there are tens of millions of tens of millions of employees in tourism is plus hotel plus if these aviation-related industries that are tens of millions of Tourism is the group there is a trade off dining there is also a great influence foreign trade so this time the wave of unemployment is very large-scale wave of unemployment he wiped out a large number of middle-class city is also one hundred million one hundred million is also on the Chinese economy hit him the most important thing Where is the impact? He is the urban landscape began to change a lot of Chinese migrant workers left the Chinese city we are talking about China's reform and opening up is a very important process of urbanization is the urbanization of farmers to the cities to become the city people have a lot of migrant workers return to the countryside last year this is the fifth time this year to this year, four unemployed 1st 2nd Real estate education and training What is the first three cross-border electricity supplier first four are? Graduates what? Another is that this year you can see Manufacturing Manufacturing is unemployed Xi Jinping Thanos snap of his fingers constantly mine explosion in various industries are most evident in the real estate mine explosion mine explosion and what is its greatest impact on the real estate division two one is unemployed? An intermediary real estate transactions continue to decline this year, especially second-hand housing second-hand housing turnover continued to shrink what the consequences of various cities are shrinking shrinking cities is caused? Each city agency began large-scale layoffs several millions of real estate agency employees left the industry What is the first wave of the second wave is? The second wave is the real estate company real estate companies continued mine explosion rival Sony China Fortune began to start mine explosion then is the whole real estate companies began to shrink their knee to the real estate company clearest turning point came did not come they began to shrink layoffs real estate company layoffs green cut 40% of Agile CD 50 CD 33 regional headquarters Fantasia cut 30% of the sunshine City area known Vanke cut 40 KWG investment layoffs in Fort Nanhai Lun Sony layoffs layoff pay cut 50 50 Branch of the entire real estate industry laid off 20% of the wave of layoffs swept the country this wave operation of course, the real estate business down small real estate company closed down almost a day collapse of a real estate industry, so it will be his one million unemployed, this is the first one of the two industry education and training education and training education and training industry is double-cut policy institutions across the country group off the faucet is new Vostok September 17 new Oriental management Conference Mr Yu announced enrollment under will stop school with junior high school business after the end of the fall line each city next will gradually close the teaching point along with the contraction of business is to layoffs earlier this year, new Oriental overall so you want to know the number of one hundred thousand of these education and training are a great number of industries we know the characteristics of the education and training industry is facing a lot of people face to face is the need for training to teach so in fact this industry is the Chinese city which is very important platform for employment you education and training industry will go to destroy a large number of unemployed he is a very important reservoir of education and training industry throughout the industry employed 40 million education and training industry is the teacher of teachers is 10 million 10 million industry employees in 4000 Wan from the current situation, the education and training industry will shrink 80% to 80% of employees will leave that you have to count at least 20-30 million unemployed people this is a big vote of the three is the manufacturing and cross-border electricity Qty Japanese and Korean companies this year is the withdrawal of large Japanese companies in particular you look at the number of September 30 off the Toshiba plant in Liaoning plant switched off in September to turn off Samsung Samsung shipyard in April Ningbo Panasonic Panasonic is closed Shanghai electronics factory then IBM IBM China closed all the German Institute of Electrical giant moved to Shenzhen Hang motor evacuation India so you can see a lot of foreign manufacturing plants operating in China for decades gone this is a trend that the trend continued this trend in the occurrence of so thousands of people are coming up and then he walked manufacturers to follow his supporting plants and some to follow to go with this one, but the manufacturing sector unemployment is relatively easy to absorb more easily absorbed because now manufacturing industry demand for skilled workers is still very long, but now the other end of the unemployed technician, he may not remain in the country now is where to run a lot? What then is the run to Vietnam cross-border electricity providers have encountered problems with cross-border electricity tumbled this year, mainly? Mainly in the Amazon before this year China's cross-border electricity supplier into a new pattern of China's exports are now cross-border electricity supplier how he went to get a very simple Amazon and other electronic business platform basically shop shop on Amazon about 60% sellers from China China's electronic business platform he ran to the shop and then rent a warehouse in the United States so you see there are many large electricity supplier warehouse the goods directly to his warehouse in the Bay Area and then shipped to customers in the United States like the United States after costs are very low discount season had finished doing their goods directly to throw Why? Because the cost of transportation costs back even higher than he threw away even more than he was selling out of the money so that he can throw away so you see above in the Amazon discounted the most ruthless of the stores are Chinese Why? Because he does not discount the sale, then he would throw away this year, Amazon began to tighten enforcement of Chinese sellers of all fraud caught on closed shop so the Chinese sellers against very large There are many companies began to shrink on a shrink but layoffs from the social impact of the block level, but not from an economic perspective, the impact of large cross-border electricity providers are mainly concentrated in three areas affect one in Guangdong is a major Jiangsu, Zhejiang is one of the three places four unemployed who army is it? It is very difficult to graduates of this year's economic situation is bad very bad job of university graduates plus returnees If we add 10 million last year did not complete the job because now young people like slow employment employment is slow so I got some family property Do not worry employment slow employment plus last year's graduates have not completed these employment actually graduating students in China are now wandering inside the city should count the number of very large millions I do not know how many but certainly the number is the number to now millions of college graduates can not find work to do? Express little brother you can say a 1990s state-owned enterprises led to a large number of laid-off workers of state-owned enterprises that unemployment should be the largest wave of unemployment since the CCP has it but at the same time it also created another trend is that employees of state enterprises he laid on where to go? He went to foreign private enterprises he went to go do his job then? He would do so in fact the tertiary industry provides services for other industries if labor is not so large-scale state-owned enterprises laid-off workers that other industries are also not develop this is a very important change so you say 90 years in fact, the wave of unemployment is accompanied by a process of economic transformation without this process of economic transformation of China's economy is not today this is one aspect, but you can see the Chinese economy this several times later in the unemployment tide explain what? Shows that the Chinese economy in decline on the decline particularly clearly seen twice recently finished second theme of unemployed Chinese influence on the Chinese economy is also a great influence on Chinese society is very large then talk about the US economy US but the economic slowdown in August, staying aggressive Federal reserve Bank of Chicago September 30 released data showed the US economy continued to maintain national activity index in August, above-average growth and July but at a slower pace compared to Chicago from 7 January level fell 0.75 0.65 0.29

did not meet market expectations of economic activity has slowed down the Chicago Fed index in August representing the four constitute the index numbers are growing but slower growth in three of indicators it is Another is that a number of initial claims for unemployment benefits rose slightly last week, the United States shows what? Delta economy by the impact of the epidemic strain mutation but the US economic data to maintain the momentum of recovery is the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits last week increased by 16,000 from the previous week by the total number of seasonally adjusted data the number of people applying for benefits 351 000 330 000 for the first time moving average of jobless claims four-week declined slightly last year to maintain the lowest level since the outbreak since mid-July this year, a steady decline in the number of people claiming benefits in what explanation? Description Despite the outbreak strain mutation Delta continued to maintain business operations but no layoffs Oxford Economics said that over time the economic downturn began to revive the employment situation continues to improve the real estate on the other hand there is a change in August August housing real estate market began to Why the slowdown? because housing prices continued to rise up so buyers start watching a very powerful National Association of real estate agents on Wednesday after data seasonally adjusted US residential housing chain of transactions fell 2 percent turnover began to decline in August fell 1.5% annualized rate of 5.88 million units basically in line with market expectations over the past few months because of US house prices continued soaring lead to fierce competition among buyers pushed up prices buyers can not afford some people continue to bid to buy not always buy to temporarily leave the market waiting to see what I look NAR said the median transaction price in August, an increase of 14.9% over the same period last year was 15% of

the median house price rose to $ 356,700 but less than in July rose in July 18 % economists predict outbreaks Delta mutation strains inhibited the growth of the US economy this summer, but with the impact of the US economic recovery faded mutation strains will re-accelerate most economists have lowered the United States in the third quarter economic growth is expected to come back again because of the epidemic outbreak because it leads to what? reduce travel out to dinner so the hotel restaurant with reducing aviation are slowing US economy then on the other hand the current situation there are two individual first hand the shortage of two products shortage of product shortages led to a moderate increase in inflation in fact, economists have increased in mid-expected economic growth for next year is expected to forecasting firm IHS Market called the end of September this year, projected growth in the third quarter US GDP was 3.6% in July forecast what? July forecast in the third quarter was 7.8% cut more than it was expected in the third quarter before the outbreak comeback everyone on the US economy grew in the second half feel than cut out so well that the company forecast third quarter should be 7.8 results are now forecast What does it reflect when it becomes 3.6 ? Delta reflects the impact of the outbreak of the US government will announce GDP data in the third quarter of No. 28 October

but IHS Market economists believe the US economic recovery, he said the foundation is very strong but not as strong as the first half of the US CDC disease control Center predicted that the United States beginning of the epidemic under control new cases will continue to fall economists believe what if new cases decline in US household spending will begin to restore American families are now the situation is? American families are now net assets reached a record high of $ 142 trillion net worth of US households So US consumer spending will be the biggest drivers of economic growth sessions generally agreed that US consumers are very comfortable situation well in hand have the ability to Americans spend money as long as the economy is like a rocket up the run especially economic holiday holiday economy will be the wave of the first wave began last year because Americans do not go out epidemic outbreak that now it has slowed down the Americans began to go out August digital analytics company Similar to his analysis involving the Internet on August December December December Christmas holiday travel search volume content was five times last year's holiday demand is very strong so we know you want to go out so the trip will be the US economy the first wave of the wave of the wave ran out last week the Fed forecast released in June next year economic growth forecast next year's economic growth forecast last week 3.3 3.8 we believe that the US economy after the third quarter began to speed Decision economics predicted the US economy in the third quarter 6.5 then is the United States the first quarter of next year is 5.1 in the ongoing fourth quarter rose 4.2

US economy so what is it like? Like a spring ready Fed Chairman Powell said the recent No. 29 September inflation may exceed the expected duration of the price gains will eventually subside, but he said that the current surge in prices is mainly due to bottlenecks in the supply chain will continue until next year due to all this and dissipated about restarting the economy is a beginning and an end of the process is difficult to say how long but how much influence he told the Fed to see if there is evidence that soaring prices could lead to homes and businesses expected to change his thought prices would continue to rise will contribute to lasting inflation the Fed will consider raising interest rates, he said we have not seen evidence of this if we see higher inflation will certainly respond we will spend our tools is the subject of today's hike we will stop here we summarize at first a limited power of influence immediately see that China's exports will slump Chinese exports slump will hit the Chinese economy Why? Because China is now the case that the consumer not only poor investment support overall export restrictions on electricity exports plunged out of a slump export of course, what is the evidence? Shipping freight between the US slump slump in exports slump affecting explanation began to come out of the two big economic impact of unemployment on the unemployed Chinese course, you should not expect China to consume what better solve the employment it does not solve the employment problem of consumption is not rising up 3rd August in the middle of the US economy is actually slowing US economy has been affecting Delta mutation strain presents a slight slowdown in the recovery of stamina but sharp all economists are optimistic about the US economy rebounded in the fourth quarter because the situation was brought under control next year is also very optimistic about the overall situation is such that we enter the following tips before entering the interactive interactive please point like to invite new users to subscribe please join us to support our members do better programs Acknowledgments October 1st day of fall grief into strength to move down the mountain this case CCP Dongguan manufacturing a friend started selling cars in order to maintain the factory started selling very optimistic sellers selling cars right circumstances Xi'an coordinate November last year, my 40-room hotel is the cheapest 700 full week in advance today, prices fell more than 200 today did not completely full even more miserable than eleven words simply can not be anything wrong with the hotel or bad hotel description? Description economy is poor because generally speaking tour is the first cut is the cost of electricity when you first cut of the revenue impact is a luxury tourism and other non-necessities such circumstances a plant if long hair, then sold to the people of Supply Bureau At least most of the electricity will go up fifty cents a coal-fired plant has been losing money on subsidies can not rely on subsidies to many coal-fired power plants are listed companies generally do not call us called thermal power plant coal-fired thermal power plant coal power plants if more than 1,000 dollars he What began to lose money loss loss consequences? The consequences of not less power loss generating a lot of people have asked me the day before yesterday asking why the government does not subsidize these plants? Wouldn't it solve the power curtailment problem by letting him continue to generate electricity? In fact, very simple ah Now the question is no money to buy coal power plants because we all know what a loss means a loss of business? A business loss on account of cash means that he quickly reduce the rapid decrease in the cash account was worried how he would do because he will be broken capital chain will reduce the coal to buy things including, of course he does not buy the coal that coal stocks in rapid reduction then off to turn off a switch off two or even three may turn off a machine on the left in power so no outside electricity was asked why the government does not subsidize power plant? Let him buy coal power China not let him go without electricity Chinese power plants China is not without some power plants China has shut down hundreds of power plants during the epidemic began to turn off part of 2016, production capacity is also shut down the portion so China has a lot of power plant China has enough generating capacity, but China's current mechanism is very bad cause why he brownouts government does not subsidize? There are two reasons first reason is that the government itself has no money and no money to the government's own concept of what we all know how much a unit one day lose? A unit pay off one day a month is probably 30,000,100 million a year if it is 400 million a year is a 3-4 million units of two to three units how to do? That is two billion more than a dozen local governments have not so much money? I think not so much money local governments have subsidized the emergence of a dozen or two billion such massive subsidies do not do a set? We are uncertain about the local government can not get it working, then the provincial government get? Government can not handle more you think about these cities have run if he can not handle money that the central government will take money from central government local government what he Time to pay out? So government subsidies this matter itself, this will not happen Chinese government has not done so dry and for how long? How long is the subsidy? To go down that local financial subsidies might collapse so why prevalence is limited power? Because local governments can not subsidize a subsidy is not the second case there is no such willingness Anhui population decline cliff-style government issued a policy to increase maternity leave, marriage leave time to pressure to push the corporate body it should be a sentence Wang I treat you dig I treat the money you'll note that this is not me who said this? Jiang Zemin said, like to say that I'll treat you money or you'll treat me money I quit the case because of the electricity shortage affecting Shenzhen 5G 5G base station basically shut down the power station is very 5G 4G base stations than the S & P consumption comprehensive cost 10 times the cost of 4G 5G telecommunications so basically all telecom companies conduct business is lost in the mess 5G only sell equipment to make money is to ask Huawei since domestic coal imported coal accounts for only 8% of that in accordance with the Communist Party of disregard for human life Why not command character of domestic coal mines at full capacity to increase domestic coal supply to stabilize the price of coal? This requires a process ah you said gave the order on the mountains of coal yet? It was dug ah is not it? I believe he would have been ordered but that there is a process he had to dig it out, but you want to quickly produce coal production out what this middle? There was the middle of these bureaucracies react to this influence was out so I'm sure he had ordered but when the coal out? When can stabilize the price of coal is still some time to view the entire regulation do not go the whole net red with a cargo of society as a whole will be more and more grandiose Why remediation red with a cargo net? What about exaggeration? Do not exaggerate guilty? What is the reason for you to exaggerate exaggerated exaggeration that? The reason is not enough pompous little more exaggerated the CCP is not in fact do not understand the logic of the CCP to now not get to know what a market economy is a market economy? What does the market economy mean when you see chaos? Description is not enough supply but also increase the supply of Chinese people also do not understand the market you want to know what the market economy will be sure to let him too far too far too far when he will go on his own does not require remediation every day thinking about what it means to remediation ? When you get remediation Another consequence is the loss of remediation remediation is not thinking of the Communist Party of the Communist Party regardless of the field have developed very well I, for example, such as home appliance industry appliance industry is very good regardless of the Communist Party in this area he feels let you play the results did not kill you to go die to see China's home appliance highly competitive people do not spend a lot of money to buy the industry is very good and we all earn a renovation of the Communist Party a hand on a broken view that this thing actually goes free the economic process was feeling really confused, but as long as the line to seize up and down naturally do not need to toss a stable government is doing what the government is doing a good rule-making rules you hold the bottom line of the law enforcement you I give an example P2P P2P is What? P2P is I need money, I can not find someone to borrow money people money then what I wanted to do?我就想找我不认识的借钱 我要付利息我愿意付利息 另外一个人呢我有点闲钱 我又不想存银行 我想拿到比银行稍微高一点的利息我就可以了 P2P是什么？是你想借钱 你想 把钱借给人那行我做个平台 你们之间撮合 这不挺好吗？ 这有点像什么？ 有点像 共享单车有点像共享汽车 共享服务Uber就是这样的逻辑 我把我的资产拿出来 分享出去 然后呢你来使用你使用的时候我收费 整个社会资源一下子就盘活了 这件事情在英国发展的很好然后他就慢慢的提高规模慢慢的上升 上升到一定程度的时候他就开始出规矩 出规矩什么呢？ P2P的公司你不可以把钱放到水池里面去 然后那个人去借水池里的钱这不可以 你只能撮合 只要你保持撮合P2P公司不会倒闭 也没有风险 你就给大家打分 打分就好了 借款的人打分出借人也打分 这样的话让这件事情有秩序的交易起来 我设定规则P2P公司哪些不可以干 哪些必须严格的干 这样的结果呢 P2P在英国发展的非常好 然后很多P2P的公司慢慢变成了小贷公司 小额贷款公司 因为它规模上来了 但是在中国就变成了一个 金融风暴 为什么？ 中国的人民银行跟银保监会根本不管 这些P2P的公司就干什么？就干坏事 干什么坏事？ 本来你是撮合他就不撮合了 你把钱给我 我就把钱放到那个水池里 我就 不按照P2P的规则来行事 我就变成了集资 然后你跟我借钱 借钱给我就变成幌子 P2P公司就使劲的拉人进来把钱放到这里面来 这就变成一个什么？ 变成了储蓄银行 他变成了一家银行 他不是一个 中介机构 这些 开P2P公司的人 都是穷光蛋 穷光蛋出来 一看这上面几百上千亿 那还不跑？ 转身就跑所以整个这个领域的监管不存在 当这个领域监管不存你看就崩了 就都是卷款 就是纯粹的骗子进入这个行业 中国的P2P就变成这样 市场经济要的是什么？ 要的是成长 要的是大家去做 但是政府来干嘛？ 执法 制定规则 不是整治 结果到最后中国就开始整治P2P 发现它有风险 有风险怎么办?有风险我就戳爆它 他去戳爆P2P 然后就关掉强制关掉 你自己让别人开的 你自己给他发的牌照 结果你又找一些 完全不着调的理由把P2P关掉强制关掉 政府在违法 中共就是这样 烂就烂在这里 所以你一说整治政府说要整治我就非常反感为什么？ 中共就是干这种烂事天天干这种烂事 正事儿不会 情况 初中 同学在贵州某发电厂工作 他们贵州也是严重缺煤发电 受煤价影响他说远地的煤他们买不起只能就近购买 但是上半年贵州发生了几起矿难 矿地在整改无法生产 所以他们电厂基本没煤 每天只能 开一台机组也就是限电日子 已经好几个月了 就是这样 一出矿难 煤价一涨 煤矿就使劲生产煤矿一加大生产就出矿难 一出矿难 整个就整改 一整改 煤就没有了 中国的事情就是这样 非常烂 这是习近平 吹牛逼 习近平天天就吹牛逼 他的国家治理就这水平 情况互联网这几年每况愈下 但应届生进几个主要互联网大厂的薪资还是年年涨 今年出现严重的倒挂 倒挂老员工薪资什么情况？ 什么叫倒挂老员工薪资？ 就是新员工比老员工工资高是这样吗？ 年年涨这是好事啊 互联网大厂年年涨好事啊说明他挣钱 挣钱工资高给大家多发钱多好 这不是坏事 倒挂老员工我不知道你是什么情况 怎么实现的呢？ 你刚进公司 工资不可能太高 因为没有证明你的能力 证明你的能力然后给你一个好的position 然后你的工资才能上去 如果不是这样的我凭什么一上来就给高工资而且是应届毕业生 这个可能性很小吧 观点中共还没有转变成为一个正常的执政党 这么多年了还是一个黑帮组织 跟迷信AK47和火箭炮的塔利班 没有本质的区别非常正确同意 观点中国大陆和伊朗一样就是个政教合一的国家 起初想建立一个乌托邦理想 完全受自己控制的国家 搞个人崇拜搞言论控制搞文化思想控制 最后的结果是全民自娱共同富裕的结论就是全民反贫 非常对 有道理 观点限电之后还有一串可怕的事 大家都跑出来逛街串门聚集很难想象这之后 会造成什么影响 家里没电就上街 商场也没电 商场没电 商场没电怎么办 街上串门有什么串的他们家也没电 我不知道怎么聚集？ 就在楼道里面摇着扇子聊天儿呗 还能怎么样？ 把衣服 卷到上面 提问长期来看中国整体经济下跌 会不会连带影响到整个东南亚地区的经济一起下滑？ 会的 东南亚 最早 会受到中国经济的影响 为什么？ 东南亚现在是中国第1大贸易伙伴 所以你想一想 中国经济开始下滑东南亚一定有影响 观点我们越南生产的产品很多原材料都是由中国进口 非常对 如果中国的电荒问题不能生产越南要进口中国原材料越南工厂也要 关门所以 中国的问题也会连累到越南本土经济非常对 观点历史给东亚各经济体公平的40年增长期 而中国是拥有最多人口与资源的经济体 但表现最差 广大的人口顺势时 就说是有市场优势 广大人才库要挟他国 逆势时就甩锅说人口太多很难养得起 东亚各经济体的成长期40年 已经说明中共的体制拙劣无能无担当 所以以前中国经常吹嘘说中国经济奇迹 我都讲过很多次中国经济没有奇迹 整个东亚国家都是这样 而且东亚经济 包括日本 包括韩国包括台湾 包括香港 他们的表现比中国好得多 中国没有经济奇迹 中国的经济表现 跟韩国没法比 大概率 跟日本可以比一下 我讲的是增长速度 但是 中国现在40年过去了 他的增长期结束了 中国开始老龄化 中国借了一堆的钱 你别看日本日本政府借了一堆的钱 但是日本的老百姓很有钱 非常有钱 日本的企业非常有钱 所以完全不一样 观点现在美国通胀主要在食物上 主要原因可能是不够农业工人和最低工资增长 还有油价的上升和中国的关系不大 OK 情况台湾许多制造业仍然卡在中国难以脱钩 台湾的果农也是跟中国贸易水果外销的简易包装 外观条件需求 看来相当宽松 我没理解 中国的贸易条件 观点台商在中国的电子 和传产股 这几天股票跌得很凶 有名嘴说台商会加速逃离中国 因为如果年年搞限电台商根本没有办法出货 作为台湾人非常乐见台商移出中国 观点政府的 责任之一 就是在市场中制定规则有的评论说 政府不会管出现垄断但忘了防止垄断也是规则之一 罗斯福新政就是制定各个行业 企业份额才能快速恢复 他不是制定企业份额 罗斯福新政 跟罗斯福新政有没有关系其实 美国反托拉斯不是罗斯福 政府应该反垄断 而不是制定市场份额 就是当出现垄断的情况的时候我就告你 把你分拆 这是一个 观点煤炭短缺的国内因素并不是事故的原因前几年煤炭产量太高 中国政府玩了供给侧改革把民营煤矿关了 保国有煤矿的价格很多 矿主每天付银行利息 但不开采 这是咎由自取 OK 请问中国经济未来有没有突然死亡的可能 我不知道假设性问题不答 鸣谢 我又来了小小的支持一波谢谢 人民币升值对中国经济好吗？ 中央地方政府财政苦困 中国国债是否走上垃圾债券之路？日本退休基金已经退场 第1个 一个货币涨还是跌 取决于什么？ 取决于它的经济形态 没有绝对的好没有绝对的不好 大家要知道货币汇率的上涨 对某一部分经济体是有利的 对另一部分经济体是不利的 比如说 人民币汇率上升 对于准备投资越南的企业来说他就很好 人民币 汇率高 他投的钱就少一点 对吧 但是对于出口商来说 就不好因为人民币汇率上升 我出口价格就上升了 因为出口价格是以美元计算的 汇率一上升美元价格就上涨 竞争力就下降 可能订单就会跑到越南去 这就是一件事情有两面 一个国家有综合性的考虑 我到底采取什么样的汇率水平 会比较符合我的利益 所以这没有一个绝对的好坏 要具体的分析不同的时期不同的经济状态 另外一个中国国债走上垃圾债券 中国国债是目前中国债券市场上 最优质的债券这是没有疑问的NO1 就有点像美国美国国债也是一样 美国国债是美国债券市场上NO1的债券 因为它最可靠最稳定 流动性最高 所以这个问题没有疑问 如果中国政府的国债变成了垃圾债券中国经济已经崩溃了 我们不用回答这个问题 提问为什么集中力量办大事这次电荒不灵了 集中力量办大事是办一件事 电荒是什么原因？电荒是因为制度的原因 中国现在没有解决制度的问题什么制度？ 他把煤炭价格放开了煤炭价格 随行就市 需求高的时候价格上升需求低的时候价格下落 但是呢他管住什么？管住电价电价不让波动 电价不让波动有100个理由 于是呢出现的情况是这边波动这边不动 当煤炭价格上升到一定的高度电厂就不生产电了 电厂是有生产能力的 中国的电厂是足够 生产中国需要的电 但现在的问题是当波动到这个程度的时候 电厂就不生产 电厂不生产就限电 所以这不是集中力量办大事的问题 这是 中国在市场经济转型的过程当中 他转一半不转了 所以 我们讲中国经济是由计划经济向市场经济转型 理论上来说必须持续的转 最终转为市场经济 但现在的情况是转到一半 摸着石头过河摸着摸着就不上岸了 他一直在那儿摸 为什么？摸的好他能把东西装自己兜里 现在的情况就是这样 他转了一半煤炭放开电价不放开 电价不放开的结果就是这样 提问请问王老师对失业大潮中的危险行业从业人员 有什么建议？ 第1个 不要转工 不要换工作不要跳槽 珍惜现在的岗位 第2个 在你现在的岗位当中 让你成为不可或缺的那个人 这是第2个 第3个 尽量的持有现金 不要买那么多的房子 不要做那么多的投资不要去炒股票 把你的现金放在银行账上看住 就这几点没有别的 覆巢之下焉有完卵 每个人都想尝试 在一个动荡的时代保持 自己的 安全这是很困难的事情但是 并非无所作为 大家都可以做一些 让自己 处于心安理得状态的一些准备工作 今天的节目就到这里感谢大家的参与我们下个节目再见 再见之前请大家点赞请新来的网友订阅 请大家加入我们的会员支持我们做更好的节目 做更好的自己谢谢

2021-10-08 14:07

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