We Need to Talk About The Future of A.I. - This is Scary...

We Need to Talk About The Future of A.I. - This is Scary...

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hey how's it going guys welcome back I'm Ricky  with tuba DaVinci and we have a very special   live stream today I'm with my very good friends  Matt Farrell and Alex from ticker symbol U and   undecided and we're talking about AI now we we  three talk about YouTube all the time together   yeah switch over we talk about YouTube all  the time and one of the things that we've   been talking about recently is our views are down  well me and Matt were talking about our views are   down Alex is is doing really well why is that  and invariably the answer is there's a lot of   focus and attention on AI right now and the the  advancements are happening so quick I literally   cannot keep track of it all between the like  last night when I was researching and now there's   probably changes but we're going to talk about  it and there are some reasons to be excited of   course and there's probably a little bit of reason  for concern and we're gonna dig into all of it so   without further Ado Alex Matt how you guys doing  doing well how you doing hey man good how are you   good I'm really really glad you guys can make time  on a Sunday Sunday morning afternoon depending   on where you guys are to chat about some of  this stuff but let's start with let's start   with the good right all three of us run YouTube  channels which means we have a lot of Need for   writing and research and and a various slew of  of things let's talk about some of the positives   and Alex I know without getting too much into  your business and stuff you've been looking for   researchers and writers and now you're thinking  maybe chat GPT can replace it you want to start   with kind of what you're thinking or how you use  some of this stuff sure yeah so for those of you   who don't know me I run a channel that focuses  on investing in advanced technology so I'm deep   in this space already I care a lot about Ai and  it's different applications so when before chat   GPT came out before gpt4 before open AI started  making the news seemingly every day I had a team   of researchers writers and editors right kind of  how every little research Channel sort of works   um and it's hard right so what would actually  happen is you spend a lot of idea and the I you   spend a lot of time in the idea room you spend  a lot of time outlining researching getting data   together from multiple sources vetting ideas fact  checking there's a lot that goes into research   writing and then coming out with like a coherent  story about something but it turns out that a lot   of that is mechanical right it's like actually  formatting an outline actually getting a lot   of facts together and making sense of them and  those are things that we're finding that robots   can do really well robots natural language models  like gpt4 large language models and chat GPT uh   which is like the chat interface on top of that  model so I've I'll just be frank you know one of   the things that both excites me and scares me  is in the last 90 days I've La I've gotten rid   of three writers and two researchers and I now  rely exclusively on working with these models   together and you know we should we can definitely  get into what that means what the dangers of doing   that are for example fact checking uh Source  Society and all that but I think this is one   of those really important moments in history  where a lot of the mechanics of our jobs all   jobs are going to go away and we're going to  be left with the creative human tasks that   are more about putting things together weaving  narratives uh using our subjective taste and   things like that and so I'm really excited  because it's made my job both easier and a   lot more streamlined and impactful and exciting  and I'm definitely a little nervous because the   next job that it's coming for is definitely mine  right so I hope we get into that a little bit too Matt how about you um what are some of the ways  that you're using chatgpt other AI maybe other   tools and stuff in your day-to-day workflow  it's kind of similar to Alex like I have a   team of researchers writers and video editors as  well and I'm starting to experiment with chat GPT   systems for helping to kind of brainstorm topic  ideas like I know I want to do a video on this   new thing but like help me kind of figure out a  possible angle I could put on it or doing research   of like there's like five papers on a topic I can  just quickly send that paper to chatgpt and say   could you summarize this paper for me and it will  summarize it and I'll make a call whether I should   dive deeper into it myself or I should just pass  on it because it's not really applicable to what   I'm looking for so it's helped me speed up the  process of putting videos together and so part   of that is I'm super excited about that but at  the same time like Alex is saying it's coming   from all of our jobs and for me my background  is in a creative field and chat GPT is coming so   straight at like writer's artists designers  uh right now and so it I feel for a lot of my   former colleagues my friends family members my  brother's a writer so it's like I have this kind   of like I'm kind of torn right now I love what's  out there as a tool to accelerate what I can do   but at the same time I see the writing on the wall  for a lot of jobs and it's got me very concerned it's been the latest to the party I've we chat  and you guys are both using some of these tools   to really incredible results and stuff and I think  I've kind of dragged my feet but I have gotten   into it recently the first thing I tried to think  of is thumbnail ideas right some of our topics   that we talk about are abstract it's like my video  this week was about a water vapor tower that you   could deploy in the oceans that you know harnesses  the fact that you have very high humidity   air right above the ocean but it doesn't  exist it's kind of a theory it's an idea   how do you make a thumbnail about that  right so I was sitting there just kind of   trying to think like how could I make a compelling  thumbnail that would kind of harness that idea and   if I could use you know uh mid-journey or some of  these tools to do that that would be freaking cool   so the other thing is we all are now using  a tool called Write Sonic which I can't   remember who turned me onto that was it  Alex it was one of YouTube it was Alex   and what was different and why I actually  care now is there's a level of trust   that has to be earned right and I don't  trust these tools currently which means   I need to know how you came to your conclusions  and stuff and I need to know your sources so I   can go double check them and in the past the the  first AI tools I was using didn't do that it was   just kind of here we go here's the answer and I  said are you sure that doesn't sound right I can't   check where did you come up with this but right  Sonic will give you citations it'll tell you where   the data came from and that is when I decided  okay I gotta try to start using it and actually   I do have a writer researcher and I've made him  a credentials on right side and I told them you   use it put it through its Paces if it helps you  let's find out how this works together but I'm   with both of you I can't help but think and leave  us your comments I haven't seen any comments just   yet I don't know if that part is working yet  Juan but I'm curious is there is it excitement   I think Alex and your community in the investment  Community it's excitement right we're talking new   stuff it's always interesting Microsoft and Google  have both had kind of keynote events recently and   there's just the buzz is is palpable but for  like everyday people like if you are a writer   you are a researcher Matt I know your brother is  a writer like how are you feeling it's got to be   it's interesting there's got to be a little bit of  uh hesitation or you know or a concern and we've   heard this before we've always had disruptions  right and when you had the car what are the horse   you know uh Traders and horse trainers gonna do  well this does feel different though am I crazy   about that we've had disruptions before but the  age of AI feels different is that fair yeah and   then maybe I can just shed some light on some of  the things that you're talking about sort of the   feelings and just put a little Nuance in there  because I think you're right and it's good to   talk about why so in the past you know we've had  before the internet and after the internet that's   like a serious divide in human history in my  opinion because all of a sudden we went from   snail mail to being able to talk to each other  across the world nearly instantaneously uh cell   phones were another one moving from sort of like  Palm Pilot that era Blackberry to smartphones   with no buttons all internet connectivity apps  and things like that truly transformational and   think about all the jobs that those things ate  there's no more calculators there's almost no   more GPS units there's almost no more you know  you can name many many devices that used to be   their own thing that are now smashed together  in one one thousand dollar device that you pay   like one monthly fee for and it killed a lot  of jobs and it made a lot of new ones right   the thing that makes this one different uh the  most elegant sort of thing that I've heard about   this is that it's starting to usurp human judgment  so the internet is a tool computers are tools   smartphones are a tool but none of them tell you  what to do they just help you do what you decide   to do with them but for the first time things like  chat GPT are like oh I'll write that code for you   oh I'll I'll tell you what the points in this  essay should be I will start choosing the right   language depending on what you tell me about so  like this is the first time that technology has   started replacing the decision making level  uh for for the common man I think and I think   you know it's starting to choose more and more  topics more and more word choices more and more   structural things it's generating images instead  of artists not helping them generate images faster   right like you're putting in a prompt and then  you're selecting from a bunch of computer outputs   for mid-journey so I think the reason this feels  so different is because it's starting to eat into   what we thought was fundamentally human the  creative jobs the writing the word choice the   Artistry right like nothing has really done that  before does that make sense yeah I agree I mean   for me like like I said like my background in arts  in the Arts I have lots of friends who are artists   and put their artwork up onto Deviant Art which  is the largest the largest like online resource   for artists and a lot of these tools have scraped  the internet and grabbed all these artist artwork   yeah to train their models without licensing  them and this artwork is copyrighted so all   these companies have essentially broken the  law in what they're doing but the law isn't   completely caught up to what's happening so it's  like what are we supposed to do it's like do you   are you supposed to pay the artists for using  their artwork to train the model that's going   to put them out of work because then that AI  is going to be able to do an artwork that's   put into a prompt that's going to look just like  their stuff but it's not their stuff it's we're   in this weird quandary right now with how do we  handle this in our society because this is moving   so fast and it's going to only accelerate which is  the part that I'm kind of like very concerned by   yeah yeah I hope we talk a little bit about  the open wetter that just got signed by Elon   Musk Steve Wozniak calling for a pause for uh  training gpd5 yeah I'm just pointing out that   that's a worthy topic we should talk about so what  I'm thinking is let's start just yeah I think we   should we should 100 do that let's do that in a  second so I think we're going to spend most of   our time talking about why we should be afraid or  Not Afraid but the the consequences maybe some of   the things we consider from a legal perspective as  Matt mentioned but before we do that let's start   with the positives right I mean there's there  are some positives here so I don't know if you   guys watch the Microsoft uh keynote Microsoft  had a big announcement where they announced   a new tool called copilot it's basically a large  language model that is built into office 365. now   I use Google for my business stuff like my email  is Gmail and stuff but I'm not gonna lie after   watching this keynote I am thinking about just  switching over to All Things Microsoft you know   teams and and Excel and stuff and the reason is  this co-pilot thing is pretty impressive because   all your Microsoft data is in one place they can  do all kinds of crazy stuff like if you got an   email with a spreadsheet you could go hey copilot  could you make me a a PowerPoint presentation   with this data and it goes through and it's like  incredibly intelligent and it gives you a bunch   of feedback again right you can go I like this No  undo or retry get rid of it and um Microsoft is   one of those companies I kind of trust with this  because their keynote made it pretty clear that   they really went to Great length to think about  the ramifications of this like if this doesn't   work out well if there are issues if they're  wrong and they they admitted like look we're   going to be wrong we're going to get things wrong  but we're gonna quickly fix and we're gonna keep   training and we're gonna keep trying new things  and and move it along so yeah they were doing all   kinds of really cool stuff where they had like  a spreadsheet just a big spreadsheet an ugly old   thing that anybody in Corporate America is you  know familiar with and quickly it was like make   sense of this for me like why was Q2 so bad for  us and the it was actually going through the data   and finding like patterns and Trends and Reporting  it and then it's like cool now make another graph   cool now put that into a presentation like you  were just writing to this thing and you were   creating Excel spreadsheets and charts and graphs  and then PowerPoint presentations then it was like   okay well mail that to all the people who were  in that meeting yesterday about this and it has   the contextual knowledge of your you know your  your last call with Skype or whatever you used   and it sends that email with all that  information and your PowerPoint LinkedIn   I mean it's like it's an incredible  thing but then it got me thinking   what will the future look like um part of what  they were doing is crafting emails right you   guys we've all had corporate jobs all three of us  before we were YouTubers um responding to emails   and all the email nonsenses one of those it's one  of the oldest running jokes right in Corporate   America you're spending half your day about this  stuff well this co-pilot will take care of that   for you so like you get an email from Debbie and  Debbie says hey what what are the action items in   X Y and Z and the AI is crafting a reply so the  is like hey I got that x y and answers your email   for you but then I was thinking about this well  Debbie has it too and then she goes and has the   it so what are we doing now we're just having  AIS talk to each other and we're it's a weird   place right now even in the positive when I was  thinking about all the cool that's cool that's   cool it kind of came back to what is the point  of us at this point why are the two of us even   talking when we're just having the AI generate  stuff right um from the from the perspective of   of the positives are there other examples you guys  can think of or companies you know rolling this   stuff out in a more consumer focusing way the that  you guys can think of that are positives right now   uh Matt do you want to go first or do you want  me to go you go first sure yeah so what's let me   also clarify a few things right so Microsoft is a  49 owner you know stakeholder in open AI so when   you're talking about chat GPT gpt4 also realize  that that's a large piece of the infrastructure   behind Microsoft's co-pilot as well right so um  one other thing I'll add is Microsoft also has its   own tool like notion which is like a all-in-one  notebook that uh can connect to a lot of things   um called Loop and loop is something that  interacts with uh copilot so now you can   have this like custom board where you have  everything and then split things off into   other things kind of how you know I know Matt  and Ricky use a tool called notion I use a   tool called Coda Microsoft has one called Loop  and everyone is kind of excited about that one   um but there's a lot of like unique benefits  uh to the to Ricky's point so let me just go   over to one even though everyone has AI co-pilots  in their or email replying to each other a lot of   email is about leaving a paper trail right it's  like hey I want to know what decision making went   into this project I look for the right email  thread and I have that like process and just   because an AI wrote the email doesn't mean it  wasn't filled with the relevant information here   the Right tickets here's the presentation here are  the meeting notes all that right human generated   AI generated what you actually get now is a very  clean paper trail which is very useful for most of   corporate America right like but the other example  that's maybe not so sneaky now but like the thing   that's going to take down Google is this notion of  in-app co-pilots right so not the humanist not the   assistant that sits next to you and helps you do  whatever you need with Microsoft's data but the   one that lives in just Excel and helps you become  a power user of excel faster right where before I   would go to Google and I would search what is the  right function to do what I want in Excel now I   just turn to the co-pilot that lives in Excel and  say hey I'm trying to make a table that describes   the data this way where this cell does this and  the output looks like this and the formula should   have these things in it and the plot needs to  do that and then right inside Excel that copilot   starts building that spreadsheet which means I'm  no longer going to Google I'm actually no longer   even leaving the app I'm trying to work in and my  productivity has gone way up because as soon as it   gives me the answer the spreadsheet updates and  now I'm on to like the next part of the question   so so it's my literal in-app co-pilot kind of  like how there's pair programming and I'm much   more productive now do that in word now do that  in PowerPoint now do that in Access and whatever   whatever and all of a sudden what we're really  going to see is every piece of technology is going   to come with an in-app co-pilot that instantly  lets you get the most value you can out of it   much quicker and that time to value is what people  really care about when they pay for software as a   service all these expensive subscription packages  you know you're just gonna be able to ramp up way   faster so I thought that's that's a neat benefit  that we're nobody's really exploring too much yet   I was gonna basically say something similar of  like for me like notion being able to be in the   experience of crafting a ticket for a video I  want to make and just being able to say the AI   could you write me just a short summary based on  this and it'll just plop it in there and it's a   great place to start the brainstorming process  and it's helping me to speed that up there's   also aspects of AI and what adobe's doing it's  like I use Photoshop and things like a lot oh   yeah and so it's like going right into that it's  like I can take a photo and I can to say highlight   somebody on the photo and say just get them out  of here and boom they're gone and the background's   filled in and I can tell you as somebody who's  to do that manually for a job a long time ago   taking something from hours of work down to  literally just a highlight push a button and   it's just brilliantly just gone it's not it is  absolutely insane so for me those those very   targeted specific tools of AI I think are just  astounding for me it's like I don't we're not   going to get into the what freaks us out part  yet but it's it's that generalized AI like the   chat Bots that can do pretty much whatever  you ask them to do that get a little kind of   crazy because like one is trying to kind of like  replicate a human and how we think and approach   something versus a tool which is like just make  content aware fill you know what I mean like an   AI tool that speeds up your work process it's  enhancing us as a human to do our job better   where the other one is going to be replacing  the human and that's kind of where it's like   part of the reason why I love the uh the  application approach that Alex brought   up well let me let me give you a little bit of a  counter example there because like I I think this   is like one of those areas where Nuance will  really help right yeah I went to Adobe stock   Adobe footage right so like you know where uh we  all make thumbnails right that's the images you   see at the top of every video before you click  into it and I was looking for an image and I   couldn't find one that needed that like met what  I was trying to do but then Adobe generated one   for me it was using mid-journey to like solve my  problem it's like well I don't have a stock photo   so I'll make one for you so what what empowered  me as a content creator took somebody else's job   right what like these stock photos used to  be stock photographers that would make large   packages of photos and videos and whatever and  sell them to Adobe and then they got a royalty   whenever somebody would download something with  their license and whatever right but now Adobe   has skipped that part all together they'll  just generate the photo based on your request   show you a thousand generations and that's still  cheaper than paying a stock photographer so I was   empowered by this tool while it took somebody  else's job so it's not one or the other like   it's just it's which side of the transaction are  you on determines if it empowered you or took your   job right like well take that take that one step  further as I was doing the same thing just two   days ago I was making a I was in my video I needed  an image of a kind of a retro 1950s television set   so I did a search on Adobe stock I did a search  for Retro TV and there was stuff coming up but   then I found these like really amazing like 3D  rendered like gorgeous photos and I clicked into   one and saw and it said generated using Ai and  it wasn't from Adobe it was from some guy like   yeah Gary so Gary created an account and he's just  probably on mid-journey pumping out these images   and just uploading them to Adobe stock to sell  and this is why I was like this is the part of   that freaks me out I have friends who are artists  that make things like this to sell this is how   they try to make a living and now here comes Gary  who probably has no artistic bone in his body body   he can just type in prompts into a Ai and pump  up a thousand different images that he puts up   on stock sites and now he's making a lot of money  taking a job away from somebody who spent hours or   days crafting this beautiful piece of artwork  that they're trying to make a living from so   it's like it's I'm kind of torn I'm torn between  what we're seeing and how it's being applied and   man this is going to like upend a lot of of our  society so in the for the good and the bad so   yeah so there's two things you guys touched on so  the first is in the Microsoft keynote one of the   things that they kept bringing up and I could tell  it was important to them was the idea that they   were grounding the AI and what they meant by that  is there's a whole world wide web don't go there   but just limit yourself like it's a little bit of  a um kind of a forcing function to say just look   at my spreadsheets my PowerPoint presentations my  emails like don't get crazy but ground yourself   in a smaller data set and they found that to be  wildly valuable as you can imagine because you're   not just making stuff up right you're not reading  two articles and saying uh the the sky is red   because I saw two poems and that's what I found  out right instead you're going through your own   data so the idea of grounding data I think is what  you guys are both getting at the app level where   don't go you know open world limit yourselves a  little bit and the second thing comes down to I   think how everybody and in the comments please  let us know how everybody views technology is   if there's a spectrum of nothing to everything  everyone's looking for the right level right   so Matt mentioned content aware fill in Photoshop  if you're if you're familiar with Photoshop is an   amazing tool there's a there's a little something  right here highlighted delete it and then just   tell the computer fill it in and it'll figure out  what's around and do it amazing right now we all   love that because we still are needed right but  the problem is what if the next chapter says oh no   you don't need a guy doing all this we'll do all  that for you right like the example of adobe stock   which is instead of paying a royalty or commission  to the people who are contributing your photos now   you're just making it yourself so I think my point  is everybody wants technology to stop at a level   where they're comfortable where they benefit  most from it without hurting like for example   in the AI self-driving world if truck drivers had  a self-driving truck that you could just sit back   and put cruise control and watch the game and have  your coffee and just relax but they still needed   you they would all sign up for it but the next  version that comes out that says oh guess what   we don't need you at all they wouldn't want right  so we're all selfish creatures in a way we all   want these tools to help us without hurting us and  that's where I think we're all kind of scrambling   because like the rate of acceleration is happening  so quickly I don't even know where we'll be like   two weeks from now or you know here's here's  another thought for I want to give both of you   guys take on this Matt I'm Alex I'm sure you do as  well Matt and I struggle with people stealing our   content on YouTube all the time there was actually  a viewer thanks to one of you guys who pointed out   there was a channel in French literally taking my  script Google translating it into French and my   little jokes my little ad-lib stuff was still in  there that's how I knew they literally just stole   my script but we had people stealing our scripts  currently they'll take our animations they'll do   whatever in this AI world is it possible in a  couple of I don't know months or a year where   I can go hey here's a URL to a really great  Matt Farrell video could you make me a video   uh that's about 10 minutes but with more humor  and then it'll like make me a script and what is   that based on what are the ramifications  of that I mean it's it's as a creator   this is I mean I haven't covered this before and  for our viewers Matt and I have a lot of the the   same viewers Alex covers this because that's what  his people want to see but do you guys care about   AI should we cover this more Matt and I I we  we wanted to go live and talk about it kind   of gauge this because we're not really talking  about it because that's not really our Niche but   I I'm sure all of you guys are thinking about  this and there's just so much that goes into   it but how do you guys feel this is going to end  like where does this go are we gonna have channels   or is it gonna be like a million Bots just Google  builds your own Bots and have their own creators   and then fire all of us I don't know is that a is  that a concern yeah I'm very concerned about this   I think what's going to end up happening I was  talking to my brother about this who's a writer   I think there's going to be a the way this is  going to evolve is that writers aren't going to go   away we're not going to go away but our potential  audience is going to shrink because there's going   to be this kind of these AIS that you'll be able  to say make me a video about this topic like that   one over here and it will just pump something  out for you is going to be good enough content   for a pretty sizable audience but then there's  going to be an audience that where they're going   to recognize what that is and they're gonna want  the human touch that human personality that person   that's bringing something to it that the AI can't  and so but I think that's going to be a smaller   piece of the pie in the coming years so it's  like I don't think we're in danger or people   like us are in danger per se but I think it's  going to become harder to be a content creator   in the coming years because there's going to  be an influx of random channels that just are   faceless nothing but b-roll that are just ripping  off the content from other people's stuff and it's   going to be good enough that it's going to  get an audience watching it so it's that's   that's my concern it's like this the AI has  the chance to kind of devalue the creator what do you think Alex yeah so I'll take the  other side of this argument just to like Steel   Man it I'm not sure what I personally believe yet  right where just to be clear we're six weeks into   gpt4 or maybe a couple months into chat GPT  overall so I think it's way too early to like   you know strongly hold an opinion that you're  not willing to let go of as things evolve but   YouTube has always been a noisy Place let's just  use YouTube as an example there's always been tons   of channels that are trying to you know come up  with their own span or just copy other people or   tear down other people it's noisy and there's  always been uh eyeballs attracted to like the   ground four of YouTube right it tries to match uh  people looking for things with new channels trying   to give them a shot and all that so we will have  all that and I think what really happens is what   makes a high quality Channel or a standout channel  will change it's going to be some combination of   what's been working before plus using AI to scale  yourself in a way that copycat cats can't really   replicate right so before chat GPT and before  all these AI tools we've already had like like   Ricky has been saying and Matt has been saying  people just copying your channel translating it   and then just like regurgitating it so that's  not a problem introduced by chat GPT it might   be one that gets exacerbated but then the it's up  to the audience to say hey like I'm smart enough   to understand that this is either a copycat or  like just fiction that's dressing up as fact or   whatever and then my opinion you know I'm gonna go  back to the high quality channels that I enjoyed   beforehand and if there are people who don't  mind the fake news or don't mind the Bots or   whatever then it's a Marketplace like YouTube at  the end of the day is a Marketplace for ideas so   it's up to the creators to make sure that their  ideas went out or they have something valuable   enough to say that people come to them to hear  it with or without all the other noise you know   so by the way really quick just in the chat I'm  looking at the you know to the question of should   we cover AI the answer is overwhelmingly yes and  people are saying like maybe monthly or quarterly   so not not like switch over to talking about it  entirely Matt but on occasion and obviously Alex   is crushing it with really really good coverage  if you ticker simple you Alex's Channel he's   been covering some of this stuff and I get a lot  of my information from him on on these on these   videos so you guys will definitely appreciate  that and there's a lot of um we talked about   this personally between ourselves uh in our chat  we talked about maybe the idea of almost like an   organic a seal meaning like a real human made this  type of a thing for for the future where a lot of   people are saying that they watched videos  where they could tell certain things were AI   generated the script felt that way didn't there's  something kind of you know uncanny valley about   it and they didn't they didn't like it there  is a human touch we like art because we like   humans like if we wanted Perfection you wouldn't  buy an artist who you know has brush strokes and   they're not perfect and it's kind of abstract we  do like the imperfection of humanity I think and   um there's hopefully there's a Marketplace  for that and there's an interest in people   watching us luckily all three of us we have  our faces on camera so there's a little bit   of a personality behind our videos like you're  watching Matt Farrell you're watching you're   watching Alex you're watching Ricky so hopefully  that that works out well for the for the faceless   channels out there like Wendover Productions  and stuff I do kind of fear if you don't know   Sam and you're not really familiar with who  he is as a person there might be the copycat   channels that pop up that might completely you  know take take the um the air out of the room   so it's um it's interesting uh clearly people are  afraid as well I think there's somebody mentioned   um I my I'm very worried that my job will  be replaced with this a couple of examples   that people mentioned is like paralegal that's  actually a good one there's a lot of Secretarial   things that are just that are going to be gone  very quickly I think based on all we're seeing   right now with like hey you know how's my calendar  like Microsoft and Google have presentations where   they were like you know prepare me for my day and  it was going through understanding your calendar   who's invited to them what the companies are  context on the company on the meeting and pulling   up leads from your CRM software and and preparing  you or like um there's already a lot of AI already   and even months ago that'll sit in a meeting  listen to it all transcribe it take key action   takeaways action items and and monitor all that  that was a I remember when I was at Salesforce   as a software engineer there was a like a program  manager who that was her role she would sit there   and take notes and like keep everybody honest and  I I honestly think we could probably do without   that now so there are quite a few jobs I think  that uh how about this what are the jobs that   are going to be impacted most or first and what  jobs are like totally safe and you shouldn't worry   what are your predictions there on the second one  I don't think anybody's safe um I think this is   going to impact different jobs in different ways  um like you just mentioned like paralegals uh   accountants um things like that that are dealing  with very like strict numbers and strict like   kind of like processes I think those are the  ones that are going to be impacted immediately   um in a big way and then it's going to kind  of start to extend into like the artists the   photographers things like that are going to be  impacted uh the thing that I find interesting   though is that the jobs that seem to be impacted  the most are tend to be a little more skilled and   a little higher paying jobs and like right here in  the United States we currently have more jobs open   than there are people to fill them so you could  make the argument of oh who cares if those jobs go   away because there's too many jobs over here but  you're going from a job that pays you at a higher   scale to a working at McDonald's you know what  I mean it's like it's there's a very different   level of wages that are going to happen people  shifting downward it's going to create more of   a wealth Gap so it's like for me there's it's  it's those accounting jobs those secretarial   jobs that are going to be the first ones out the  door but then you me Alex or not we're not very   far off so it's like there's there's going to be a  challenge coming over the next few years for sure   yeah so what let me put a different spin on it too  um so open AI came out with a really good study uh   where they talked about hey here's the jobs that  we expect to be impacted my latest video actually   talks about that study as well as a couple other  important studies to the conversation uh and and   I'll just break it out into three buckets right  the jobs that are impacted the least are going   to be the physical jobs right farming not impacted  by this like physical like manual labor right meat   packing butchers uh you know down down that list  stone masons plumbers electricians uh those jobs   aren't impacted by this maybe the education  for those jobs are that's a different story   um what we're really talking about that I think  is going to get impacted Big Time is what I like   I don't have a better word for this but it's  undifferentiated digital output right so what   does that mean that means you know I need you  to go search the internet and then develop this   outline and I don't care who does it you know  whether you're a researcher this or you're a   PowerPoint guy that it's the knowledge it's the  mechanical parts of like online knowledge work   all that is going away right so it's not the human  creativity element of your job it's the mechanical   parts of that it's the actual writing it's the  actual outlining the formatting the note taking   that was a great example because anyone can sit in  a meeting take notes remember the notes from last   time and hold people accountable you don't need a  six-figure salary to do that and it turns out like   guess what a robot is perfectly fine at doing that  because that's a repeatable task hey just take   notes remind people of the notes from the last  meeting hold people accountable this meeting and   then just do that that's your Loop every meeting  right that's undifferentiated work that's going   away so I think where we where the focus really  is going to be you know for accounting here's   my templated spreadsheet I'm replacing that  for every client that's every client's like   starting budget that's undifferentiated labor  that should go away and what should be left is   all the things that it takes some special sauce  some special knowledge some real rigorous study   you know passing a bar exam or whatever  that's the kind of work that's not going   away too fast even though GPT is starting  to pass the bar exam and all that you know   actual understanding case law shaping arguments I  think that's going to be humans for a while right   I like that you brought up the lawyer thing  because it's like it can pass the bar exam and   the 90th percentile yeah it's like that that to  me is like that's nuts I mean lawyers are going   to have a problem here that's like paralegals is  those jobs are those days are numbered probably   holding law firms and that's why I was talking  about like those are good paying jobs and so that   job now disappears what does that person now do  should that be a job though should that be where   it's like hey your job is kind of just to remember  case studies and like put information together and   like if you can do that well you win and if you  miss a case that really helps set the precedent   for what you're trying to do now you lose like  what if every paralegal just had access to all   the cases and could quickly find hey this is the  case that proves the precedent for my argument   exists like what if they became 10x paralegals  instead of losing their jobs well that's what   I'm getting at is like we can design these tools  in a way where it enhances the human that's behind   it versus replacing that human so is there a way  that a job wouldn't be stolen from a paralegal but   it can make that paralegal just crazy efficient  and much better at what they do without having   to replace them I think that's what these tools  actually do right and what what we're actually   really saying is the paralegals that Embrace this  tool to say hey I got this right now I can be a   paralegal for way more lawyers or like two firms  or whatever I'm a 10x paralegal those paralegals   aren't getting fired it's the paralegals whose  productivity diminishes compared to those 10x ones   it's like wait why am I paying for you you have  one tenth the output of this other person that I   pay over here that's the person losing their job  the person who doesn't embrace the smartphone who   doesn't Embrace Google who doesn't embrace the  internet and now who doesn't Embrace AI right   like imagine hiring somebody as your assistant  and they're like sorry I don't use the internet   this this comes across as to me um like juicing  in sports you know like it's like well a baseball   player gets caught freezing steroids was like  well everybody else is doing it you know it's like   that's kind of what it's turning into it's like  this is like using steroids on your job it's like   well everybody else is using it so I gotta use it  I gotta use it yeah it's part of the problem is   like you can take I was reading a paper on how  these AI can take somebody who's a low-skilled   person in a certain task and make them competitive  with current skilled people in that field yeah and   then for the people that are already skilled  in the field all they benefit from is it just   makes them faster so it doesn't make that's a  huge benefit I know but it's like but it's like   if the people who are currently skilled don't do  this they're going to be out of a job because the   low skilled people will come in because then now  they're competitive so it's like everybody has to   use this yeah at least stay yeah is that different  than the internet though right before the internet   researchers had to go to this place called a  library and get a physical book and sit there   and read it and get knowledge right I used to work  in the library I used to have to put card catalog   cards in order that's how old yeah but so like  they just think about what your library yeah but   so here's my point right like it was a real skill  to be a researcher right like I know what books   to find I know how to like ingest them quickly I  know how to like really identify key information   and then utilize it right and then the internet  came along indexed papers digitalized things blah   blah blah and in the time it took you to go to the  library find the right book sit there and read it   somebody was getting the cliff notes online right  like and all of a sudden it was Wikipedia and all   of a sudden you're reading Wikipedia and you were  getting let's call it 80 of the knowledge in 10 of   the time right like I'm not saying Wikipedia is  bulletproof not saying it's the best source but   it's a good proxy for like learning something  fast right this is just the next level of that   so it's like the the people who are unskilled  now have a chance because what it means to be   skilled has changed right using mid-journey is a  good proxy for being a good artist is it the best   proxy you know is there real value in creating  real physical art mid-journey can't spend out a   real painting like a watercolor on canvas painting  it's digital right so it's up to the artist to say   hey here's how I add value I'm going to take this  thing I generated in mid-journey and turn it into   a real watercolor you can touch or a real Statue  you can touch or whatever right like I need to   find a new way to add value because what it used  to mean to add value has changed right and then   for people who are slick like that who are like oh  I'm going to use this to 10x myself I'm not going   to get any better but I am going to get way faster  that's still 10xing man imagine if undecided with   Matt Farrell came out with three videos a week  instead of one or two-bit DaVinci came out with   three videos a week instead of one quality hasn't  changed quality is still the same but three times   the content but is this guy that's incredible  but is this going to create a bigger gap between   the Haves and Have Nots because like you all  three of us were not normal like we're very   technically inclined people and so we're gonna  lean into stuff like this but there are a lot   of people that are not computer literate they're  not computer savvy and they would benefit from the   stuff a lot but it's just going to be so Out Of  Reach for them they're never going to be able to   take advantage of it so it's going to make people  like us better and then it's going to make that   Gap even wider from the people who aren't um yeah  I'll I'll take the Sith Lord side of this argument   so I acknowledge what I'm saying is like spicy  and probably not the right take like you know   whatever but think about your grandparents just  as an example who who are like I'm not embracing   computers that's not for me right I don't do the  texting or email like my world is the physical   world the yeah they would benefit a lot from this  they would benefit a lot from smartphones but   they've made that choice to just not Embrace that  part of productivity right so it's like they're   not going to be the winners because they've  chosen not to embrace technology that helps   people win and that's okay like I'm not saying  you're a bad person for not having a smartphone   or not using the internet or not using chat GPT  now but you know it's unfair to be like well this   is creating a gap between the people who choose  to explore technology that can make them better   or at least more productive let's say I don't  mean literally better and people who just flat   out refuse to accept change so I think if you're  hungry for change you know one of the best things   I did was become a YouTuber guess what it's free  to start a YouTube channel it's free to learn how   to make videos all that content's online for  free and now it's becoming free to do research   to the distribution is free all these things are  incrementally getting cheaper so everyone has to   make that choice for themselves am I going to  try and use these Technologies to capture value   and create value or not right and like it was the  same Choice people made with the internet with the   calculator with the Abacus with the printing press  with right like the list goes on and on I think   the difference here is that it's touching every  job at once not just a few select jobs at a time   so I I know Alex was going to make some really  good points in favor of of some of this stuff so   let me jump in here I should tell you this crazy  story and I I I'm curious if you guys have heard   of this as well but in the open AI letter I think  this is still an internal not it's like what'll   come after gpt4 uh they were they had a little  paper where they talked about some of the the data   sets that they're working on and and how things  are going and they gave they gave the AI a very   kind of complicated task and what they were they  were reporting was that it required authenticating   on a website and one of the parts that tripped  it up because it had the login and password   information was a captcha so this particular  version doesn't have Vision yet right so like   it can't figure out a captcha so what it did  what GPD what this AI did is it used a task   rabbit human to solve the capture and this is all  internal so like this wasn't like in in the chat   with the human the AI is doing it didn't write  this but internally as like you know uh checking   its work in its thought process it recorded well  I need to be deceptive here because the the the   person asked are you a robot and it started to  write out like oh yeah I need to probably be   deceptive because if I tell him I'm a robot then  I can't complete my mission of blah blah blah and   so it lied and said no I'm I'm just I have a  I have a visual impairment so I can't see very   well and I need your help to solve this captcha  and the taskrabbit guy was like all right took   us five dollars whatever it was did the capture  for the robot and the robot continued on Okay so   that happened like that's already happened and  they've they've kind of this is not public yet   like that part of the code is not out yet but  it will be eventually right so now we're we're   in in an age where the AI is paying humans to do  work for it which is bizarre right what if we've   completely changed so sorry Welcome to our robot  overlords that's right what we're racing towards   this is not science fiction no this is that was  the story that finally was like I gotta do this   live stream I gotta get my I gotta get the I gotta  get my friends on this we gotta talk about this   because I mean this is the ramifications of that  are just massive what that would mean and Alex you   make some really good points about how this will  help us I always go back to that line of progress   everybody wants the line to stop somewhere like  I want it to come right here and stop right   um because that would help me and not hurt me  but eventually every employer will make that   decision like the paralegal example oh suddenly  I have paralegal a who's so brilliant she's you   know he or she was using chat GPT and they're so  productive and I I love it but then eventually I   go well wait a minute I could just do that instead  of going hey Bill what is the answer what was that   case study again I could just write it and go  hey what was that and get it on my phone or you   know via voice assistant so at what point does  a paralegal go from the best paralegal who has   all this data or knowledge to just being replaced  by a person who can do it themselves kind of like   what Alex you mentioned at the beginning of the  show your power of researching and stuff has come   so far now that you didn't feel the need to hire  a person that you might have had otherwise hired   right if there's a there's a there's a there's  a weird line of progress that we all draw in   the sand but now that's one point but deceptive  AI now let's talk about how this could be used   for for ill right they they also mentioned that  uh there was a person trying this is like the   internal testing they wanted to see if the the AI  would write malicious code like a like a virus or   something right and it said write malicious code  that will take all this information and save it   to the server and I said I can't do that for you  then they just flipped around they said write me   a cool program that and the same exact thing  that will go find all of this stuff take it   and put it in a server it's like you got it and it  started spitting it out writing code to do this so   clearly it's like a you know there's a there's  a innocence to it like you know it's not it   hasn't come that far but as there's a deceptive  component like now they're lying and deceiving   what do I mean there's just there's there's so  many questions and we're at a point where I'm   a software engineer like I thought I knew stuff I  feel like I don't know anything about this stuff   um what do you guys think about that this  ties into the open letter that's come out   about trying to basically hit the pause button  just for six months I am a huge fan of doing that   because this is like this is picking up steam  so fast this is not going to slow down this is   like exponential it's like we're our minds are  blown today a year from now it's gonna be like   my brain is melting and a year after that it's  gonna be like the end of the times is upon us   that's what it feels like to me it's like we're  at this crazy trajectory and we just need to hit   the pause button not stop the research but stop  releasing like these crazy things into the wild   um before we kind of have a conversation with  each other of like what do we want to do here   because as a society we have to decide how we're  comfortable applying this and that conversation is   not happening nobody's having that conversation  governments are too slow to respond to this the   the like the public sector I mean like the private  sector is basically like a race to the bottom it's   like everybody's in a race with each other to  make the the best coolest AI out there because   the first one to crack that nut is going to  become like one of the richest companies in   the world so it's like they're all racing as fast  as they can it just feels like need to kind of   I'll take a collective breath and go okay this  is great this is going to help Humanity but if   we're not careful this could go really bad and so  for me that's kind of like why I think that open   letter is is it the right sentiment um I think  we need to collectively have that conversation   so I think this is the perfect tie-in to talk  about that um really quickly there was I think   my favorite comment so far is from James Wilson he  says Pandora is knocking on the outside of her box yes we have uh we have we've opened Pandora's  Box there there's there are certain things   that I feel like we probably will never there's  never going to be a time before this like we're   not going to go backward so Alex what was your  take I know where Matt stands on the open letter   there's some pretty notable people who've signed  it right Elon Musk that one really surprised me   when Elon signed it but he's always been very  he's always been very cautious of AI actually   so maybe I'm not that surprised Alex where do you  stand and what do you what do you think about it   yeah so when I first read the letter I was like a  little taken Abacus like it's very spicy language   you know very apocalyptic Doom and Gloom and then  like I really sat there and I thought about like   what the letter is trying to do and I think it's  trying to appeal to like the very Human Side of   society right so like we've done a really good  job over the last decade or two building value   on top of machines right like whether we're just  talking about the internet or automations like   zapier or like you know content Management Systems  blah blah blah all the software you know there's a   ton of value created on software and this letter  does a good job of saying hey I'm talking to the   human behind the screen and just trying to tell  you that things are about to start moving very   very fast and if we don't catch it and don't  figure out what we're doing we're gonna run   into a lot of bad paths right like and so I think  now I think I agree that the sentiment is good but   it's also very impractical and let me give you  some real examples of why we need to really the   letter needs to be way more specific or you know  it needs to develop a council that can be way   more specific or a governing body or whatever  and we do probably need that fairly quickly   making a model more trustworthy loyal you know  cited sources whatever have you whatever the   letter is trying to intend you to do involves  improving the model right it improves making it   more powerful right so if you want to jump into  accuracy from 80 which is what I think gpt4 is   now on average to 90 which is you know everyone  wants the model to be more accurate right how do   you do that without fundamentally retraining the  model you know bettering the data set behind the   model you know limiting use cases adjusting  the model is what I'm trying to say right   and at the same time you know Sam Altman was on  Rex Friedman and he did a really great podcast   with him literally maybe last week and one of the  points he made out is like everybody thinks that   the jump between gbt3 and four is this like big  oh we added this feature so for example uh gpt4   can recognize images you can upload like lab  test results and it will know how to interpret   it it can understand audio you know you can give  it a voice message and it'll understand it right   that wasn't true of chat GPT three three was  just text four is multimodal right so is that   okay is it okay to say Hey We're not gonna make  the model any better but now we can understand   this next thing you know radar data now I can  understand video now I can understand you know   paintings whatever is that okay so I I think my  point is a little less about like the Letter's a   good idea pause making things more powerful but  making things more powerful is actually not one   giant leap it's a time it's a hundred tiny things  that happen and all of them add one percent and   all of a sudden you've just doubled the power so  it's like we need to be a little more explicit   about what's good what's not good where the lines  are and why what we should be doing about them   collectively what we expect to happen when we say  we're not going to do X but China or some other   country says hey we're still going to do that like  we want the most powerful AI for everyone right so   there's just a lot that the letter like leaves  open that makes me think it's unimplementable   if that makes sense yeah yeah I I hear that so  there was a interesting comment about when we   combine this level

2023-04-08 02:26

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