Technology Lifecycle - Seasons, Clockspeed - Part 5
[Music] now we are interested to discuss about scope of technology for a customer what do we include into technological forecasting and what we don't include in the technological forecast and for this purpose i'd like to share the screen and let's us discuss about scope of technological scope of technological forecast in fact if i if i just look to the dictionary and the just recall uh we we already gave our definition of technological forecast when explicit answer for the question what when and where one technology will evolve and will be substituted by another one but if you look to the dictionary the technological forecasting uh can be translated as a process of predicting the direction and scope of future technological advances okay the whatever technological forecast we are talking about we need to be capable to answer for explicitly for all questions of decision makers and it depends as we already discussed about product life cycle it depends on the knowledge life cycle it depends on the life cycle of regulations all together because for us technology this is a synergy of this three one but let us see a bit uh more in detail how we can provide knowledge about future changes and why we need to provide knowledge and why technically one technology is replaced by another one if we start with the question of uh application of existing technology whatever technology we use for instance now we are using smartphones it will lead us to new customer needs first to satisfaction to the customer needs for communicate to have access to internet to have access to data to entertainment but it also results the new challenges like energy consumption like material to produce and continue to run this technology new knowledge and new regulations also and those social technological challenge we will produce also the question would are the emerging technology able to respond for those challenges what are the and next technology which will respond for the question about limitation of energy use how make it that our smartphone will be always charged for instance in fact we always have uh several technologies to choose among okay some substitution we can for instance for our smartphone we can use harvesting of energy we can use uh additional batteries we can use reduction of energy consumption but we need to provide information in order to answer for this question what other among emerging technologies will be candidate for the coming future to replace existing one existing technology that we use today why do we need so because we need to have a pathway from present state to the next state why because we need to plan the resources we need to plan resources for research scientific and technological resources we need to plan resources for research and development industrial resources we need to plan production and distribution resources we need to plan maintenance and service also which kind of services we will need what kind of specialist we will need what kind of education program we will need professional education and high education program we will need in order to support this new solution in the coming future and we need also to plan recycling and disposal in order to not to appear in the situation that we appear in many technologies which will be which were which were produced in 20th century today so as so that we plan all this and we accomplish with application of new technology we will arrive to the point from which we start we apply the technology in order to satisfy our needs but our needs also will shape our vision about what we will need in the future the technology for recast provide other knowledge about future but this knowledge are enough in order to plan and in order to describe the pathway between current state and future state and if i'd like to keep our definition of the scope as simple as possible in fact our technology forecast main application is a planning we take the data and information from existing environment we make our strategic planning and we make our forecasting and after that we compare how our forecast how our plans are consistent with the forecast and if they are not consistent we change the planning in order to keep it consistent because if the future changes are not consistent if our sorry if our planning are not consistent with the future changes they will not be successful whatever action is based on our planning when they are consistent we implement our plans into the reality and we have a positive outcomes and positive results if they are not consistent the result of our action result of our implementation will be always losses and negative of course our outcomes and results will produce some data and information that we will use for the future planning and we will use for the future foreign so our technology for recurs scope is to provide knowledge which are useful for decision making and in border of our course we are trying to learn the methods for particularly for strategic planning strategic planning we are making photocasting which i provide knowledge for strategic planning that's what i would like to share about scope of our forecast in border of our course how do we define technological forecasting in good of our cause do we have any dimitri thank you for that uh one quick question i have is can you please give us an example for this let's say i i just top of my head i'm thinking i'm i want to organize a conference say uh something not at all anything to do with technology but is this something that we can do with this this flowchart i found it very interesting and intriguing so can you explain that with that example please okay let us take an example with our mobility mobility technology today uh assume that we are living uh in the cities and not only in the cities we always have a need to to move to travel from point a to point b and today we are using different technology for that we are using bicycles we are using motorbikes we are using cars this is our available technologies but whatever technology we use we use the hardware as we already discussed we use a knowledge and we use some regulation but on the level of the hardware if we continue to uh scale the system that we use we arrive to the limiting resources like air pollution or like available materials to produce hardware on the level of knowledge when the density of transportation flows increase we arrive to the problem that we have not enough skills and the number of accidents start to increase and this is what we named social economical changes and on the level of the regulations we arrive also uh to some problems for instance in a situation of pandemic we we arrive that we have to transport we have to travel but we have to travel not in contact with other people okay those are the different the different limitations that we arrive and we aggregate all these kind of limitations what we name social economical challenges when the customer needs is always the same to travel from point a to point b and the customer needs is always changing also because if yesterday i spent 20 minutes or 30 minutes to travel from my home to my office tomorrow i would like to spend less 15 minutes and more comfortable so that's why in a time of running of this technology we are looking what are the new solution which will help me to gain time which will have less less limitation and which will satisfy all the regulations which arrive from the environment so we say okay how about different kind of transportation different kind of mobilities that we can use for instance if today i'm using bike bicycle to travel how about electric bicycle will it be the option for me in the future and what will be the path from using today's bicycle to electric bicycle we need it in order to plan our research and development to be capable to produce electric bicycles for affordable price of also maintenance and service because maintenance and service of electric bicycles and normal bicycles is not the same the same like electric cars and internal combustion cars this is absolutely different kind of services and of course we need to plan recycling and disposal because for internal combustion um engine recycling and disposal this is one thing but when we need to recycle and dispose the batteries this is another thing so so this is why when we predict when we predict we have to have enough information to see what will be the speed of these changes and what will be the real technology which will substitute one another will it be electric bicycle or will it will it be just uh working on distance from the office so the technology forecast has to cover all these questions but we always start from existing technology we try to understand the evolution of customer needs and we try to measure our social economic challenges socioeconomic challenges on the level of limiting resources and we try to depict the changes on the level of our evolution of evolution of our system all together using logistic s-curve which include uh behind of logistics curve there are always limitations that's why the exponential growth is limited is cupped and we inevitably will arrive to the platform is it okay with this example or we need one more example no this is more than enough what i was looking for in fact it is comprehensive uh one related question i have is and again this comes from our conversations from the past is uh laws particularly you brought the topic of recycling and disposal these laws uh particularly in uh developing nations like india change on a far more uh you know quicker cycles and have to be included in the planning itself so how do we take that into account when we are looking at technologies of the future so when i want to look at alternatives i also want to consider this but how do i include that in the big model uh that you showed uh you are talking about regulation you are talking about yes regulation yeah regulation okay let us let us look to this to this slide once again in order to better understand uh the meaning of the technology let us see the definition of the technology in fact the regulation this is inevitable part of any kind of technology without regulation technology doesn't work if you'd like to introduce new kind of new technology for mobility without regulation it doesn't work uh i'd like just to give you an example about new autonomous vehicles new autonomous vehicles they're available on the level of hardware for decades more than 10 years we have a safe automotive vehicles which circulate on the road not on regular basis but as a test prototypes in europe and united states why do we still not have them on the street because the regulations of countries are still not clear and just in order to give you example very simple question if any accident happened with this autonomous car who is responsible for and this until this question is answered the autonomous cars cannot appear on the street even the rate of accident for those cars dramatically lower than accident rate for cars which are driven by human being and it's very true because if you just look how do we recognize the badges and signals on the road the human being usually recognition rate about 73 75 when recognition rate of uh artificial intelligence more than uh 93 97 so those systems are much safer but as soon as that we have no answer on the level of regulation those hardware cannot even we have a knowledge and we have a hardware how to use these autonomous cars they cannot appear in our real life it cannot be it cannot appear as a technology that we can use on the daily basis is it is it example which is clear enough or you your question was a bit different um that is one part of it i think i think uh what i was looking for was the change in regulations also i mean particularly this pollution laws disposal they seem to be changing and getting stricter by uh and tighter as as we speak i mean every year there's a new regulation uh itself so how do we include that in the uh forecasting another map itself that we were looking at the big one that you showed us yeah uh the regulation about pollution this is this can be considered from point of view of competition for the resources between technical system hardware and human being in fact in when we use a logistic earth curve we are talking about always limiting resources and the new regulations about uh pollution for instance this is the way to protect human being health from the competitor okay this is a means to solve the problem that the technical system like internal combustion engine or existing technology to produce heat they take resources out of human being which are essential resources for surviving and this is from point of view of competition that's that's a pretty clear situation and whatever technical system we take why technical system will arrive to the plateau we already discussed about life cycle why technical system always arrive to the plateau of level of accomplishment and why technical system will always arrive to the face of decline and death because the available resources the available resources are limited so that's why today we not only in india we we have the same situation in paris for instance the uh vehicles with a diesel engine heavy tracks they are not allowed to enter into the city and when we have not enough rains and wind for instance sometimes cars are not allowed to circulate in paris after 6 pm that's because there is not enough space because there is not enough fresh air for people who are living this from point of view of competition we are going to uh to discuss how we can compute it because the main idea it has to be computable is it a cake for your question yes perfect thank you so much that that helped me a lot thank you so much for that yeah thank you for your questions
2022-10-14 04:05
