Sniffing Volcanoes from Space
Janet Callahan: This summer and i'm going to introduce you properly in a second but. Janet Callahan: they're repaving home and they're also kind of putting in all the lines all that good stuff so they stopped just before my house, at one point I took a picture there for enormous trucks like actually in my field of you out the out the back window. Janet Callahan: And so I ran out there, I coax everybody, and I said look, you know see you see my driveway it really needs a like a berm because when you know, and I pointed up a trim i'm like what's a when it's raining you like it just all comes down so. Janet Callahan: What you're telling me bill as it's happening above the ground and below the ground. Janet Callahan: But.
William Rose: Why why the. Janet Callahan: French drain. William Rose: I love to imagine it.
William Rose: above ground below ground think about the earth all the time, so. Janet Callahan: can't get off, no, no it's good. Janet Callahan: will, instead, so if you're just joining us i'm going to do kind of slow introduction, because we start broadcasting 555 not broadcasting, but you know recording so. Janet Callahan: You are listening to husky bites, this is a weekly webinar series that started about a year ago, almost, and so this is season three we didn't kind of summer ball, and this is spring season, although we've just been talking about snow. Janet Callahan: The topic tonight is is is volcanoes and detecting them and sensing them and. Janet Callahan: And so volcanic activity is part of the history of this place and so before I you know I formally introduce you build you wanted to say a word about that.
sure. William Rose: We are the copper country and the copper country is a totally unique place and it's the product of a great big geothermal area, so you can kind of imagine. William Rose: yellowstone steaming away above a big magma body which had before this geothermal event had created enormous lava flows, maybe some of the biggest lava flows on earth and it's a place where maybe the continents. William Rose: started to split apart, maybe the very first continental rift and so it's an historic place and it's a place where native American started mining copper. William Rose: For the first time it's a totally unusual geologic site and we're so proud of it we're trying to get people to know more about it and that's enough for me to. Janet Callahan: know that that's perfect all right, and so i'm going to going to go ahead and get formally started, so I would like to.
Janet Callahan: launch this evening i'm going to begin by showing a few slides, but first let me introduce myself, my name is Jana kalyan i'm dean of the College of engineering at Michigan technological university. Janet Callahan: Which is located in the upper peninsula of Michigan which, if you've never heard of it, you should look it up look up the upper peninsula of Michigan. Janet Callahan: And then, and then look for a town called potent H O U gh to, and that is the where Michigan tech. Janet Callahan: exists Michigan tech was founded in 1885 to train mining engineers and so it's kind of we've got to faculty from in from the Department of geological in mining engineering and sciences with us today. Janet Callahan: Alright, so i'm going to share screen and just show a couple slides and then i'm going to introduce you bill and then.
Janet Callahan: You will introduce our featured speaker this evening, Dr Simon carne. Janet Callahan: Well, welcome everyone it's wonderful to see you again, and if this is your first time joining us this is a weekly webinar and so, then this evenings presentation is sponsored by Michigan texts department of geological in mining engineering and sciences. Janet Callahan: Thank you to the gregory's who are matching sponsorships and up to $25,000 toward the Michigan tech annual scholarship fund.
Janet Callahan: And so, if you would like to support a future webinar 100% of anything that you give goes to all students at Michigan tech without any. Janet Callahan: distinguishing among them, in other words, these are not just college of engineering scholarships it's a Michigan tech annual scholarship fund. Janet Callahan: So in the special instructions just type in husky bites, then that is how your gift will get attribute it, and if you forget to do that, or if you just want to reach out just send an email to email@example.com where Danielle will answer any questions you have. Janet Callahan: So these are also being live streamed through Facebook and all the webinars are posted after the event and I encourage you, if you want to kind of look back into the library of different talks that have been given, please, please do so.
Janet Callahan: A quick poll to see who's with us today, the audience changes last week we had quite a lot of alumni so who's joining us today, if you are live here. Janet Callahan: You should be able to fill out the poll, and so we can see we've got a combination of Michigan tech students we've got alumnae and alumni faculty and staff friends Michigan tech and family of current future students, it will let that go for a few moments more predominantly. Janet Callahan: These are people who have graduated from my university still engaged in keeping in touch with what what's going on, and so, those of you who are alumni. Janet Callahan: Please reach out to other folks and invite them to ask you bites and I think it would be fun thing to do with it with a grandchild or with a son or daughter or with a cousin or any sort of future husky I think it'd be it'd be kind of fun to do that. Janet Callahan: So.
Janet Callahan: i'm going to go to the next slide. Janet Callahan: This is the lineup of the remaining lineup, these are all posted online you dispose it empty u.edu backslash husky bites so next week. Janet Callahan: We have a faculty Member joining us to talk about cybersecurity and then the following week, we have an early spring break, there will be no session that week and then we have a series of seven additional webinars that will follow so next week's webinar. Janet Callahan: will feature our faculty Member Dr 10 and whose first name is pronounced as chewy so that makes it easy to remember so.
Janet Callahan: Who is in the department electrical and computer engineering we're going to be learning about keeping ahead of the cybersecurity curve. Janet Callahan: And that's the email address to us if you would like to sponsor husky bites and if you sponsored one of the fall and want to do one of the spring, you know what all the money goes to students scholarships. Janet Callahan: Alright, so this is my cue to stop sharing and so i'm going to stop sharing and so i'm Simon go ahead and start loading up your slides while I introduce bill, and so my co host this evening is our beloved Dr bill rose, who has it has a long career here at Michigan tech. Janet Callahan: he's been at Michigan tech since 1970 he retired in 2011 he was chair and leader of the program but in the 1990s. Janet Callahan: bill joined us after graduating with his bs and PhD from Dartmouth, and I won't I won't give away what year that was bill, but I guess I did it was 1970 and then. Janet Callahan: He came here because he understood the strong relationship between this area, and you know and copper and you know lava and and his interest in the birth.
Janet Callahan: He loves hooton he loves hands on science, he loves going outside. Janet Callahan: His dual major as an undergraduate was geology and geography so there's a mix going on in both those disciplines and maybe someone could ask a question about what's the difference between those. Janet Callahan: In the Q amp a and, by the way, you can load a question at any time in the Q amp a, which is one of the features and zoom just type in your question and, at the end of the of the of the webinar.
Janet Callahan: Both bill and Simon will be available to answer Question questions, and so, when I asked bill what what accomplishment he was most proud of. Janet Callahan: It almost made me cry bill said I am I am so most proud of of my students and that's I think really just resonate with everyone here at Michigan tech that's why we're here that's why we've dedicated our lives. Janet Callahan: to doing this, and so, with that bill, I am going to turn it over to you to also introduce Simon. William Rose: Thank you. William Rose: Simon.
William Rose: came. William Rose: To Michigan tech as part of a partnership that we got developed about volcanic clouds, and this is when. William Rose: Okay, no started to be dangerous to aircraft that was an opportunity for us.
William Rose: and Simon had two. William Rose: Important mentors, from my perspective, one is a really good friend of mine who is that Cambridge where he was a graduate student and that was Clive Oppenheimer. William Rose: And outstandingly creative man, but also a really fascinating personality and inspiring personality and the second mentor was a man named marlin krieger.
William Rose: Who is that the NASA Goddard space Center and we had an association, because we were separated so far apart, I was the only person here at Michigan tech and everyone else was scattered from Australia to Argentina to. William Rose: Italy to Soviet Union wonderful wonderful people and a lot of people in the UK, and so they managed to form a consortium where we could get together and we were early users of the Internet, and so I got to know Simon. William Rose: And this was a long time ago goes back to. William Rose: 1977 I think when I first met him but. William Rose: We got together for many years, so I got to know him and then eventually at the right time. William Rose: Michigan tech decided to support.
William Rose: The effort we had made in vulcanology for a long time we produced because they got so many great students, we produce students who are leaders all over the place, and so they decided to support. William Rose: volcanologists and bring them into our program and there were a lot of people that deserve credit for this, there was an initiative. William Rose: About hiring really outstanding people from all over the world and that's how Simon got in he was competing with every kind of engineer, you can imagine.
William Rose: To get a position and so i'm so proud of the university, because now we have several volcanologists and I retired after 10 years but Simon is one of the very best he pioneered communication among the volcanic cloud group and he's exemplary. Janet Callahan: Oh he's carrying the mantle. Janet Callahan: at me. Janet Callahan: he's carrying the mantle. William Rose: But so, but so is. William Rose: So is great way and so is tad dairy and so is Thomas oldman bit we have.
William Rose: An amazing group of people working on volcanoes now much more than we ever had when I was here, so let me give it to Simon now that's enough right, I could go on and on. Janet Callahan: Well, I was trying to carry out upon he's carrying the mantle. Janet Callahan: All right, Simon, you have the floor i'll stay muted now I promise. Simon Carn: yeah thanks Ben thanks thanks Janet for the introduction thanks bill and a lot to live up to, obviously, and yeah I mean like bill said it's kind of a so he's been a great tradition to Michigan tech volcanology and build started at all so we're sort of continuing his tradition. Simon Carn: So what i'm going to talk about is titled this sniffing volcanoes from space yeah we're not literally sniffing Of course this is we're talking about measuring.
Simon Carn: Volcanic conditions from satellite and so i'm gonna tell you a bit about how we, you know how that works kind of what things kind of things we can see and sort of significance for mostly for the atmosphere and climate i'm going to sort of focus on that. Simon Carn: And I want to start also by just acknowledging, you know most a lot of my work is funded by NASA. Simon Carn: And I worked along for a long time with colleagues NASA Goddard space flight Center and still work with them and also lately, with people from environment Canada so it's Obviously, like all science a big you know it's a collaborative effort. Simon Carn: So sorry, so you know my talk is going to be about volcanic eruption so just spend a little bit of time, you know discovering what the volcanic eruption is.
Simon Carn: So you know volcanic eruptions they start off we have liquid rock on magma beneath the surface of the earth that contains gas dissolved gas as the magma rises towards the surface. Simon Carn: The gas bubbles, you know grow in size and expand and eventually they become so largely they blow the magma partner fragments and it forms a big eruption column above the volcano which can rise to you know great heights in the atmosphere. Simon Carn: And on the on just on the right, I got some you know some recent examples of some some of these sort of spectacular eruption columns from places like chili. Simon Carn: From a couple from Chile here there's one from Russia and up down here and there's one from Iceland, so you know we get typically every year or so, you know something fairly big adoption happens and they often make the news probably seen pictures like this, so they're all pretty spectacular. Simon Carn: But he has a volcanology as well, the questions we get asked all I get asked a lot is, you know how big is this eruption how high in the atmosphere, does it go.
Simon Carn: Will there be any climate impacts has got some it's something that some people are interested in right now very topical, of course, climate change things like that. Simon Carn: And so you know when we talk about eruption magnitude or sighs. Simon Carn: What we what we refer to typically as well, just as the amount of the mass or the volume, sometimes of the solid material limited. Simon Carn: You so in this picture in the background here this picture actually shows the Pinatubo eruption and in the Philippines in in June 1991, which is the. Simon Carn: second biggest of the 20th century, one of the biggest in the last you know recent decades and it's a very significant events or come back to this later on in vulcanology because of the climate impacts it had. Simon Carn: But um yeah so we usually talk about you, you can see in this picture that the Gray stuff is the is the actual missions around us a solid material.
Simon Carn: And you know build a lot of work on that and the hazards you to ash, but also the gas emissions, which is something you can't see in this picture. Simon Carn: That the sort of invisible gas gas emissions have you know large determined to a large extent, some of the other impacts on climate so i'm going to focus most on how we measure the gas emissions and these these kind of interruptions. Simon Carn: So just to you know, to go to a little bit about my background to get a bit of a segue here, so I know as educated in the UK to play, so we have no domestic volcanoes.
Simon Carn: We got some some active volcanoes and overseas territories, but most of the time we have to sort of borrow other people's volcanoes for studying. Simon Carn: You know, as bill said lots of lots of great volcanologists come from the UK but it's not a very active volcanic place. Simon Carn: And what really turned me on to volcanoes was when I did my master's degree actually in France down in central France place called claim offer on. Simon Carn: And that was in 94, and this is a kind of significant from a Michigan tech perspective as well because lately your build set up a.
Simon Carn: master's exchange program with the claim of the university there about about 10 years ago, so we had a lot of students exchange Assange which isn't quite exciting, because I was, I was there as a student. Simon Carn: But if you go to this part of France it's a beautiful area and you see lots of things like this, you see lots of it's a very it's a volcanic region so you can you know we can we can recognize these volcanoes because they're a Cone shaped like the thing behind my head here. Simon Carn: And they have craters and so forth. Simon Carn: But you know they look sort of fairly dormant, these are not particularly active volcanoes even though you know from a theological perspective, these are actually you know what we might call active in the last eruption this area was about 6000 years ago.
Simon Carn: And so we as geologists we would actually classify those as potentially active. Simon Carn: So this leads me on to my first poll question here. Simon Carn: How many active volcanoes are there on earth, and when you're when you think about this question you have to.
Simon Carn: Imagine the volcanologists geologist we say volcanoes active it has it has erupted in the last 10,000 years or so. Simon Carn: So there's four choices there. Janet Callahan: So the answer the four choices are 1400 and 40 1400 14,000 right, and so you know all right i'm just going for see I mean that's just gut instinct here, you know because.
Janet Callahan: I knew I. Janet Callahan: had no idea. Janet Callahan: and professors always bracket that the right answer we'll see what you did. Simon Carn: While you were right jenna you are correct, this is around 1400 rethink active in the last 10,000 years yeah. Simon Carn: And this this doesn't include there's also volcanoes beneath the surface of the ocean submarine volcanoes this doesn't include all that stuff it's, this is just the ones above the surface, but yeah about 1400 so it looks like everyone did a good job there.
Simon Carn: Quite a few votes of 14,000. Simon Carn: I can just get rid of this poll myself I think right yeah okay so. Simon Carn: So, moving on so when you may when we think about active volcanoes, we know that this is a picture of a volcano in Costa Rica. Simon Carn: And this has a gas plume coming at the top of it, so this is something we think of active volcanoes something that tells us volcanoes active is the is the gas emissions right. Simon Carn: And now volcanic guessing is a very important process, because if you have a long period of time it's been it's the source of the the earth's atmosphere.
Simon Carn: Now, if you, you probably know that the air the atmosphere of the Earth is. Simon Carn: Mostly comprised of nitrogen and some names at nights journalism at 21% oxygen that 1% are gone. Simon Carn: And also, you know variable amounts of water few percent of water.
Simon Carn: And also, notably there's about 8.04% carbon dioxide. Simon Carn: Now this is quite different from the other stuff that comes out of volcanoes is typically around you know dominated by water vapor 60 to 99% water. Simon Carn: Maybe one to 30% carbon dioxide. Simon Carn: significant amount of this gas called sulfur dioxide, so too. Simon Carn: And you know less than 1% of a bunch of other stuff. Simon Carn: So what has happened over and over time, is that you know this volcanic water has been dancing from volcanoes for of a geological you know millions of years has you know the the water from the volcanoes is condensed into the oceans.
Simon Carn: The carbon the CO2, a lot of that has gone into the rocks so things like rocks containing carbon like limestone and fossil fuels that we're now burning, of course, to release that carbon back into the atmosphere. Simon Carn: So that's a it's kind of a good thing that all that carbon was locked up in the rocks. Simon Carn: And then you know, basically, but volcanoes do emits a small amount of nitrogen and that nitrogen has accumulated over time. Simon Carn: To you know become eventually it's a kind of an inert gas, so it doesn't you know doesn't react with anything in the atmosphere so sticks around, and so this has become the the major component of our atmosphere of the time. Simon Carn: And another the important guests here from a logical perspective is this gas sulfur dioxide, and this is what we focus on is volcanologists because. Simon Carn: It has a low background and the atmosphere there's not much not many other sources apartment volcanoes and it doesn't stick around in the atmosphere too long, so it doesn't accumulate too much, so this is the one we focus on for as well canola just to monitor volcanoes.
Simon Carn: And now, this This offer is also has a major role in the climate impacts of volcanic eruptions again, and this is shown in this in this chart here so again, we have our eruption. Simon Carn: of volcanic eruption the eruption contains ash know a lot of different types of gas, but the main. Simon Carn: The critical one here is the sulfur gases. Simon Carn: So so to hear.
Simon Carn: So why is so important, and the reason for that is because it converts to what we call sulfuric acid aerosol OK. Simon Carn: So the sulfur in the in the volcanic eruption converts over time to H2 so for which is sulfuric acid, and these form tiny drops centrally a tiny liquid drops of acid that's that can stay residents in the atmosphere for for many years if there's a bigger option. Simon Carn: And what these little droplets do is that they reflect the solar radiation sunlight okay essentially acting is like a big mirror in the atmosphere, so they reduce the amount of sunlight that gets down into the lower atmosphere and that. Simon Carn: Results in cooling down here in the lower atmosphere and actually you can also get heating of the aerosols themselves absorb some heat some radiation may heat up. Simon Carn: So that's the critical effect of a volcano is on climate is sort of mediated by the sulfur gas as the so to particularly.
Simon Carn: And in order to impact climate these sulfur gas as need to reach the highest level of what we call the stratosphere of the earth, which is the point. Simon Carn: Above around between 10 to 17 kilometers above the surface Okay, so they have to reach that high because that extends the lifetime and the lifetime and that level can be near several years. Simon Carn: Okay, just to test if you're if you're paying attention here's another question, so what is the major component of most volcanic gas emissions. Simon Carn: So hopefully the pole will appear. Janet Callahan: Alright, so as the second poll is loading up i'm just going to read it out loud so there's four choices, a nitrogen and to be water vapor h2o see carbon dioxide. Janet Callahan: CO2 and D sulfur dioxide, so too and i'm not seeing the quiz myself, I might have buried beneath my screen.
Husky Bites: Sorry, I think that one did not get loaded. Janet Callahan: Okay, all right, so all right, I will be the audience speculating here so harding to Dan it's like professors never used the endpoints. Janet Callahan: It would either be B or C, but as a, you know as a scientist, I actually know that B and C are not the right answer so i'm going to answer the right answer, the answer is a.
Simon Carn: incorrect. Oh no. Janet Callahan: Volcanic gas emissions dang I fell for it. Simon Carn: it's water so yeah so the the vocal conditions dominated by. Janet Callahan: Water damage.
Simon Carn: So how do we measure of all kind of gas as well and there's various techniques, we can use, you can you got to the volcanic the volcano itself and and sample it directly. Simon Carn: You can use various types of sensor and these tend to be quite sort of hazardous you know proceeds to go into a volcanic crater and actually sample the gases so and they can be the volcanic environment is very corrosive so the instruments don't last very long and these kind of environments. Simon Carn: You can use what we call remote sensing techniques at the bottom or or ground based remote sensing techniques, where you we use spectrometers and you know pointing them at volcanic vents. Simon Carn: And this also you have to get pretty close to the volcano in this case, so it can be can be hazardous and you know, on the bottom left here, people are really exciting new areas, people are starting to use drones or unmanned aerial vehicles to to sample volcanic gases. Simon Carn: So these techniques all other advantages but, but you know how did I get into the satellite you know techniques and just to go back to my.
Simon Carn: Might sort of career path here after I worked in France or after my on my studies rather in Europe, I am I worked a little bit on Montserrat, which is an island. Simon Carn: An active volcanic island down in the eastern Caribbean and that's where I sort of first got interested in volcanic gas emissions. Simon Carn: And and monitoring of gas emissions and then I moved to to NASA in in Maryland NASA Goddard space flight Center, and this is where I am at NASA This is where the. Simon Carn: bill mentioned Alan krueger and he is the chart that the first device, the way the technique we use to to monitor volcanic gases from space. Simon Carn: And this is kind of an accidental discovery because, and this, this was in 1983 or 1982 there was a volcano of volcanic eruption in Mexico, from a volcanic what LG john and.
Simon Carn: And in an instrument that was designed to measure ozone in the atmosphere, called the total loser and mapping spectrometer or tom's. Simon Carn: picked up a strange signal over this volcano. Simon Carn: And they later discovered that this is actually do too so to gas there wasn't a volcano producing lots of ozone, it was so too Okay, and we had previously, we didn't really have a great idea about how much so, to volcanoes admitted typically these bigger options.
Simon Carn: Now, the reason this technique works is that you know ozone and so too, and I got some pictures on the left here are fairly similar sort of chemical molecules. Simon Carn: They are a zone it's just three oxygens joined together. Simon Carn: So to just substitute one of the oxygens for sulfur so they're quite similar so they behave in very similar ways, so you know, an instrument designed to measure ozone can also measure, so too. Simon Carn: So this is the first discovery of this this technique and on on the right is that the cover of science magazine in 1983 following this discovery. Simon Carn: And here is a photo of bill I think there's bills helicopter landing at that same volcano in in February 83 so he built visited this volcano after the eruption now the eruption was in April of 82 very big eruption one of the biggest to the last few decades. Simon Carn: So satellites, then you know the evangelist satellites, as you get this big picture view of our options, so it doesn't matter where a volcano erupted.
Simon Carn: Well, when it erupted and there's usually a satellite we can use to look at it, so it doesn't have the constraints of sort of ground based techniques. Simon Carn: Now this image is a from an interesting satellites that we've just started working with which is called the deep space climate Observatory discover, and this is located 1 million miles from earth between the earth and the sun. Simon Carn: At a special place in the in the solar system called the earth sun the garage point, and at this point, this is where the sort of gravitational attraction of the earth and the sun. Simon Carn: Essentially, cancel out so satellites that are remains fixed in that place and it orbits the sun, at the same rate of the earth orbits the sun okay.
Simon Carn: So from that special place you get a sort of constant view of the earth rotating in your field of view, essentially, and this is a really neat place to do this type of satellite remote sensing. Simon Carn: And in the in this red circle here if you just look closely, you can actually see a volcanic eruption. Simon Carn: Just sort of popping above the clouds there that we can see the ash cloud, which is this one also shown on the right in the in the other picture here. Simon Carn: And this is an option that's occurred in the Far East of Russia in June 2019, so this is a really nice actually quite a novel a new for observations were looking at to to monitor volcanic eruptions. Simon Carn: Now the other interesting thing about this has nothing to do with eruptions is that sometimes the moon. Simon Carn: photo bombs this satellite so this this place in in the solar system or beyond the orbit of the moon so sometimes the noon passes in front and you can see the far side of the moon, in that case that's kind of a neat nice little.
Simon Carn: novel feature of this kind of order. Simon Carn: So, how does this technique works, the technique we use to monitor volcanic so to from space, just to go over that briefly if you're interested in the technique, so we start off with. Simon Carn: ultraviolet light from the sun, you know the same kind of UV radiation that causes sunburned if you don't wear sunscreen and that UV radiation travel through space.
Simon Carn: And it passes through the ozone layer and the atmosphere and some of the ev gets absorbed and then it also will get absorbed by so to any volcanic answer to that presence and. Simon Carn: And then it gets scattered reflected back at back to space back to the satellite Okay, and so by comparing the radiation coming directly from the sun. Simon Carn: To the radiation reflected off the, off the earth, we can basically figure out the amount of ozone and the amount of SLA to in the atmosphere. Simon Carn: And so, these these kind of measurements have been used for a long time to monitor the ozone layer, but they also very effective and measuring so to. Simon Carn: say as an example of the kind of thing you can get so suddenly a sense, the first night in 1983 the techniques have evolved tremendously, so the you know the satellites and become more accurate higher resolution so forth.
Simon Carn: So again, this is the same eruption I showed you in that previous slide actually and the volcano here is in for on the left is. Simon Carn: A sequence of satellite images showing the so to emission from a volcanic eruption and the volcano is down down here it's again, this is the one in forest and Russia, which was interrupted in June of 2019. Simon Carn: And for reference I just indicated, hotel as well, so some of the some of the gas cloud from disruption did pass over this area.
Simon Carn: But what you can see, as you know, the vc the eruption and then the the so to cloud spreads out in the atmosphere it's a great demonstration of. Simon Carn: The fluid nature of our atmosphere, essentially, you know, yes it is spreading and it's following the atmospheric wins and it's gradually decaying over time, and this is what's shown on the right hand plot is how the actual massive so tonight cloud varies over time. Simon Carn: So you can see it sort of quickly rises to a peak. Simon Carn: of around in this case 1.4 million tons of CO2, so that was the That was the total admission if you'd like and then over time and sort of gradually decays away. Simon Carn: And this is the, as I mentioned before, this is the conversion of the so to to the the sulfuric acid aerosol so the city is gradually being depleted, as the chemical reaction occurs, the conversion to software sulfuric acid. Simon Carn: Which is you know run but that's The thing that controls the the climate impacts, as the sulfuric acid aerosol in the atmosphere.
Simon Carn: Now this particular option wasn't big enough to have a significant effect on climate and i'll come back in a minute to the sort of. Simon Carn: criteria that we think are needed for for climate impacts, but this was still quite a big event, and you know we see something on this of this size typically once every every few years, maybe on average. Simon Carn: So something else we've been able to do with the satellite measurements is to identify so we've some of my more recent work has been identified, all the strong sources of this so to gas on the surface of the earth basically using. Simon Carn: Many years of satellite data. Simon Carn: So these maps are basically showing sort of hotspots, if you like, so to emission from around the world, so we've got Indonesia up here. Simon Carn: Which is you know, one of the most the most volcanic reactive country on earth many active volcanoes and Indonesia.
Simon Carn: Down the bottom right we've got some volcanoes in Papua New Guinea and Vanuatu, which is in the south Western Pacific. Simon Carn: And the top right is a place for the South sandwich islands, which is a very remote place in the South Atlantic note, nobody lives here just mostly penguins. Simon Carn: In this place so it's a very remote spot, but again that's the advantage to the satellite measurements, that we can we can take a look everywhere. Simon Carn: And we're not constrained by by field measurements So this has been a sort of a major result of our recent work and we figured out that all these volcanoes combined.
Simon Carn: They admit around 2310 grams of so two per year teragram is the same as a million tons because that's about 23 million tons of CO2 per year coming out of all the volcanoes on earth in the last 10 years or so. Simon Carn: Okay, so again so see if you're paying attention. Simon Carn: Which country the next poll question which country has the most historically active volcanoes. Simon Carn: Is it chili is it Japan is the USA or is it Indonesia. Simon Carn: And you may you may know, this already. Janet Callahan: i'm not speculating i'm just saying.
Simon Carn: I did mention in passing, I think. Simon Carn: This is a place where bill has worked a lot and I actually did my PhD in this place. Simon Carn: And it looks like everyone yeah it is in fact Indonesia yeah.
Simon Carn: Now you might see somewhat different answers to this question, it depends on how you define the historic period some period, you know, some countries have longer historic periods and others but Indonesia is generally regarded as a place with the most historically active volcanoes. Simon Carn: So well done, everyone. Simon Carn: Okay, so now going back to this i'm going to go back to Pinatubo now and just show you so again. Simon Carn: You know just to show the advantage to satellite imagery satellite imagery gives us this big picture view and it's, the only way to look at you know really big volcanic eruptions. Simon Carn: So this is just a sequence of imagery showing the Pinatubo eruption and do 91 which, as I mentioned before, is the is the biggest eruption the second biggest of the 20th century, and the biggest eruption since we've had satellites basically.
Simon Carn: And now the interesting thing about disruption, which was in the Philippines, so you can see the the Philippines outlined in red here. Simon Carn: And at the same time, this eruption was going on there was a typhoon so they had to sort of natural hazards coinciding, if you like, which is. Simon Carn: You know kind of unfortunate, but you can just see them the other white clouds underneath of the typhoon union which is impacting the Philippines, at the same time. Simon Carn: So the volcano here is the is the yellow cross and i'll just show you a sequence of images just showing the growth of the large volcanic cloud as it. Simon Carn: grew in the atmosphere.
Simon Carn: So this thing you can see, this is what we call an umbrella cloud the obvious reasons for the spreads out like an umbrella and and this thing was. Simon Carn: You know, it was huge hundreds of kilometers across and. Simon Carn: And the reason yeah the way we can tell that when a bigger option is happening is that the material tends to spread sort of regardless of the wind direction. Simon Carn: So when this eruption was going on the wind basically out of the top right and flowing in that direction, but the materials spreads upwind. Simon Carn: Because it's just there's so much material it's so dense and it flows under gravity and it flows against the wind OK, so the way we can tell if there's a really bigger option as if it starts to do this flowing up against the wind, rather than just being transported passively downwind.
Simon Carn: So, like I said, this is the biggest one biggest eruption of the satellite here. Simon Carn: Now this is the SME to emissions from the eruption, and this is kind of interesting because this has worked on by one of my predecessors at Michigan tech booth they did some of the early work on this. Simon Carn: And so, this cloud We calculated contained around 13 to 17 telegrams and again, that means million tons of so two guys so. Simon Carn: So you know, a large amount, this is all this gases erupted from the volcano into the atmosphere around 1317 million tons of CO2. Simon Carn: And then you get to clouds pretty large unit drifted off from the volcano drift around the world and spread out and and this disruption did have some some climate impacts.
Simon Carn: So what are those climate impacts look like. Simon Carn: So typically you know what we see after these these kind of Pinatubo sighs disruptions, and this is this is this, this is our observations after you know, several options of a similar size. Simon Carn: You what we expect to see, and this is what happened after Pinatubo is, you see, in a the E here is the eruption time and you see a sort of a small decrease in global temperatures global average temperatures of maybe a fraction of a degree Celsius. Simon Carn: After the eruption Okay, and it tends to be highest in the second year after the eruption and then it sort of recovers back to the pre eruption level okay. Simon Carn: So that's typically what we expect after these kind of cider options as a you know small that significant reduction in global temperatures, as the aerosols, you know reflect the sun's radiation away. Simon Carn: Over that period, and after a while the aerosols get washed out of the atmosphere and sort of things returned to normal basically.
Simon Carn: And the right hand plot just shows you know so we've had in the last sort of 15 years or so, you have three big significant other options that have impacted climate. Simon Carn: The ag owner option that's going is in Indonesia in Bali, that was in 1963. Simon Carn: Other than lt charm which I already mentioned in 82 and then Pinatubo in 91 okay so that's the, these are the three sort of biggest events, the last 50 years or so.
Simon Carn: And you know the the other blue line here is sort of a projection of what might something might happen in the future. Simon Carn: So what do we need to what is the volcanic you know what does the volcanic eruption need to produce to impact climate. Simon Carn: Now so here this chart shows all all your options, so we keep a database of all our options that and there so to emissions everything we see from satellite. Simon Carn: And this goes back to 1978 this database so on this plot you're seeing all your options we detected each each option is a circle and the size of the circle is showing you the SI Tu amount limited. Simon Carn: And the color is showing you the altitude OK, so the red ones, are the ones that REACH high and the atmosphere and the white ones are much lower. Simon Carn: So the first and there's about 700 interruptions on this plot, so the first criteria.
Simon Carn: Is that to tell the global impact the volcano needs to be in the tropics so it gets going i've taken away all their options are not in the tropics. Simon Carn: And so I should have added that the the the vertical axis here is latitude right So these are all plotted by latitude north and south okay just showing you the location. Simon Carn: So i've taken away all the ones on the tropics. Simon Carn: The next criteria is they have to be injected, yet they have to inject material into the stratosphere so the above around when the tropics the stratosphere is at 17 kilometers altitude Okay, so it has to go above that height.
Simon Carn: So i've taken away all the ones that didn't reach the stratosphere. Simon Carn: So now we're down to too much you know, nearly 33 eruptions left. Simon Carn: And then the last criteria is that we have to, we think it to the best of our knowledge, we think that's around 5 million tons of CO2 is needed to have a climate impact. Simon Carn: And if I take away all the ones that didn't produce that amount we just left again with the two LG john and 82 and Pinatubo 91 of the only two ones that we have that have measurable climate impacts in the last in the last few decades okay So those are the criteria we think are required.
Simon Carn: Now he can go further back in history, of course, then we know there's some bigger options. Simon Carn: The other that have had much greater impacts prior to the subtle era so here's the famous one this is tam bora and also in Indonesia. Simon Carn: And this volcano erupted in 1815 and produced a very large crater here this Caldera is you know seven kilometers across and erupted around 3233 cubic kilometers of material. Simon Carn: And this is responsible for what we call the year without summer, which was an 1816 when the climate was so cold. Simon Carn: Especially in certain parts of the world, so you know, there was snow in Vermont in in June there was. Simon Carn: It sounds like summer in the Cuban or, but this is this is unusual for the month right, but you know they have very low temperatures in New England, so this.
Simon Carn: And we can only estimate the amount of so to produce by disruption, because we don't have satellite measurements, of course, but we can we estimate it around 60 grams of so too, so it's a little bit you know a few times larger than Pinatubo. Simon Carn: And you know we're sort of correspondingly larger impacts on climate, so this is quite a significant event. Simon Carn: significant impacts on on climate globally, especially in Europe and New England was sort of two focal points. Simon Carn: And this is also when Mary shelley wrote Frankenstein and a very bad weather, after this corruption so there's all sorts of interesting you know societal impacts of these things. Simon Carn: So just to test if I if I know talk to you correctly here's another poll so So what do we need for what are the ingredients, we need for a volcanic eruption to impact climate. Simon Carn: 5 million tons of so to injection into the stratosphere.
Simon Carn: Tropical location or all the above. Janet Callahan: what's what's the pass rate on your exams Simon. Simon Carn: yeah so.
Simon Carn: that's right all of those criteria we think are needed for interruption to impact climate. Simon Carn: Well done. Simon Carn: Now, just to go on so i'm going to continue a little bit long here So what about other gases and what about CO2 carbon dioxide I mentioned before, that you know volcanoes do produce CO2. Simon Carn: Now there's a great interest in CO2, of course, because on the plot on the left, shows the famous keeling curve, which is the you know, the rise in CO2 in earth's atmosphere over the last few decades currently at around 416 parts per million. Simon Carn: Now, so you know the overwhelming consensus, of course, is that that humans are causing this rising CO2.
Simon Carn: And you know, for this reason, detection of volcanic CO2 from space is really hard because there's so much CO2 in the atmosphere already and volcanoes don't produce enough basically to rise above that that background signal. Simon Carn: Now that said some some volcanoes do produce enough to be detected from space, and you know a few years ago, we did some work. Simon Carn: And we were looking for volcanic CO2 emissions from this a satellite call the orbiting carbon Observatory osu to we did find a few places where we can see CO2. Simon Carn: But the the middle plot down here just shows the Los Angeles based and when the satellite you know flew over this these huge mega cities. Simon Carn: We definitely see that the human of CO2 emissions do stand out, you know very significantly volcanoes are much harder to spot, although we did see we did manage to see a few.
Simon Carn: So when we when we tried to measure volcanic CO2 we typically have to go into the field, because it's just too hard to measure from space, so you know one place, I was lucky to go to recently was the. Simon Carn: killer whale volcano and Hawaii which erupted has a spectacular option in 2018. Simon Carn: and Simon Carn: And this happened, if you know the big island of Hawaii is a map of the big island of Hawaii here on the right, and this eruption occurred down in the bottom right and the southeast corner of Hawaii. Simon Carn: Now the killer whale volcano is essentially the entire southeast corner of the big island is killer whale volcano. Simon Carn: And this is, this is a bigger option limited around point eight cubic kilometers of lava so you know substantial amount and cause a lot of damage because. Simon Carn: The eruption happened in a essentially started in the in a housing subdivision and you know lava flows in the streets and destroyed a lot of houses.
Simon Carn: But the the goal of you know, but I went there to do it, to try and figure out that the CO2 emissions and disruption and I also wanted to mention here that. Simon Carn: We have in Michigan tech volcano program as a lot of diaspora mission technologists. Simon Carn: All over the world, probably, but certainly within the US, you know the US geological survey has volcano observatories in Alaska. Simon Carn: In Hawaii in the cascades in in Washington state, and also in in California down in menlo Park, and I think you know Michigan tech students have have got positions and all those places.
Simon Carn: And here's so here's petition to do who's one of my students and she is currently working in Hawaii is the volcanic guests geochemist. Simon Carn: And she was obviously playing a major role and monitoring disruption and you know callaway also erupted again just just recently, you may have seen as well and she's very busy with them. Simon Carn: So what we when we went there we did some measurements of of the gas emissions and just a few photos here, and this kind of activity is very spectacular.
Simon Carn: And you can see, you know what you're seeing here is the magma sort of full of gas rising up and bursting big bubbles of gas bursting at the surface and creating this sort of spray material. Simon Carn: These are very gas richer options usually. Simon Carn: The measurements of these disruption particular sort of we discovered was that the killer whale eruption and tons of CO2 emissions. Simon Carn: Is around about the same size as a single coal fired power plants so here's a picture of one from in four corners new Mexico particularly polluting power plant. Simon Carn: And so you know around about 15 to 20,000 tons of CO2 per day coming out of this volcanic eruption it's about the same as a single power plants in the US.
Simon Carn: So on the on the on the grand scheme of things, these things are not particularly significant in terms of global CO2 emissions. Simon Carn: So here's where we stand in terms of a global the global global context. Simon Carn: What kind of conditions, so I got some some pie charts here in the top left so so in terms of so to emissions volcanoes a quite a substantial slice of global's so two missions.
Simon Carn: Around 10 to 15% or so. Simon Carn: And the and the human emotions are are larger but they're actually decreasing so most of the and the anthropogenic so to emissions are from. Simon Carn: Coal fired power plants burning of fossil fuels that also released sulfur, and these are gradually being cleaned up over time so there's the anthropogenic conditions of us are decreasing every time.
Simon Carn: But the volcano is of course the remaining approximately constant. Simon Carn: Because they don't change that they didn't sort of stay constant, for you know for thousands of years and then they don't change very quickly so gradually the contribution of volcanoes to the CO2 emission to global so two is increasing. Simon Carn: Now, with a CO2 it's it's a different picture that the volcanic CO2 is a very tiny proportion of global CO2 emissions. Simon Carn: And you know got some numbers down here in the bottom right, so you know our best estimates to justin volcanoes and MIT around 282 360 million tons of CO2 per year. Simon Carn: And the latest or recent anthropogenic CO2 emission is two orders of magnitude larger so around 36 billion tons of CO2 per year so so kind of a very big difference and like I said as the reason we can't measure the CO2, the volcanic CO2 from space. Simon Carn: Is there's just too much CO2 in the atmosphere already.
Simon Carn: Okay i'm just going to test, you know whether i've convinced you, so this is kind of an easy one, just a 5050 chance So what do you think has been the main driver of atmospheric CO2 levels and, of course, hence global warming. Simon Carn: In recent decades. Janet Callahan: Well, so there's two choices.
Simon Carn: Is anthropogenic volcanic activity. Janet Callahan: So the two choices are a anthropogenic slash human activity or be volcanic activity. Janet Callahan: On as an overwhelmingly people are choosing human activity. Simon Carn: Well, I still I still see a few deniers the MPs so yeah but basically the consensus is that the humans are causing the tissue to increase not not the volcanoes right.
Simon Carn: So this is my last slide so just you know what, when will the next big eruption occur. Simon Carn: Well, we don't really know. Simon Carn: I mean, hopefully, these things tend to give us some warning times Pinatubo eruptions started to there was a build up a few months before that are options we had some time to prepare and the many of us in a volcanic community are sort of waiting, of course, for the next big one. Simon Carn: And we don't know exactly how much so, too, will produce, but we have lots of satellites, that will be able to tell us pretty quickly. Simon Carn: But then like I said, the most likely scenario is that will see you like this blue line here, you know if it's a similar.
Simon Carn: Similar to Pinatubo will see a sort of a temporary reduction temporary cooling, but then we'll probably just returned to the business as usual, which is the the red lines just rising rising temperatures unless we can somehow you know mitigate the the human caused climate change as well. Simon Carn: So stay tuned. Simon Carn: And i'll stop there, and i'm happy to take any questions. Janet Callahan: Thank you so much, Dr Simon carne and just a few quick words and those of you who have questions use the Q amp a feature on zoom to load up a question to type in a question, I can.
Janet Callahan: I would like to take this opportunity to thank both of our Michigan tech professors here so Dr bill rose, who is Professor emeritus. Janet Callahan: In the Department of GMOs, which is geological and mining engineering sciences here at Michigan technological university and also Dr Simon current, who is a professor in the gina's department here Thank you so much for both your time. Janet Callahan: And Thank you everyone for joining us we've had an. Janet Callahan: interesting. Janet Callahan: set of questions already asked and so bill, please feel free to pick any question you'd like to answer and you and me can kind of tag team on this and you to Simon so. Janet Callahan: We will stay here for questions until 7:15pm and then we call a hard stop so.
Janet Callahan: Alright, so. Janet Callahan: Dave and Martha Adler say hi to bill and Nano, did you see this one bill. Janet Callahan: you're muted, in case you wanted to you're trying to talk. Janet Callahan: And then.
Janet Callahan: All right, Margaret asks, is it true that you don't see ash emissions and magma or lava emissions from the same eruption. Simon Carn: yep that's kind of true so yeah there are two different types of corruption. Simon Carn: So the explosive or option is the ones that produce a lot of ash and those are most of the pictures I showed at the start, wherever exposure options. Simon Carn: And then the kid away or option at the end is more of a what we call a feast of corruption, and those are the ones that produce lava flows and tend not to produce a lot of ash, so there is there a way to distinguish between those two different types right. Simon Carn: There there's a lot of overlap usually as well, so there's not exclusively the case, but some.
Simon Carn: Beer that's that we do just distinguish between explosive and effusive right. Janet Callahan: All right, and to be unmuted now so David Martha say hi to you and then oh. William Rose: Hello. William Rose: I hope you're.
Janet Callahan: All right, Sue I created a problem bite somehow creating a second bill rose So if you can delete one of them, that would be good. Simon Carn: Second Co. Janet Callahan: UK do you know I can see a second heroes I don't know I I think I did it, but maybe not all right, and so we have answered that Thank you so much. Janet Callahan: And Bob carnahan says, please do bill rose my sincere regards he's missed visits with them in the past few years Sunday and breakfast and tour of the opening of mine, asked the North and so anyway Bob carton passes on his Hello. William Rose: Hello. William Rose: I hope you can hear me.
Janet Callahan: ya know we can hear you we're here to have you right now, but no, I think I think you're back down to one now. Janet Callahan: So it asks. Janet Callahan: i'm assuming. Janet Callahan: That the water being sucked in the volcano volcano comes from the water table how much sulfur and other chemicals would see back out into the water table. Simon Carn: Yes, good question so Yes, some volcanoes you know, obviously there's a lot of water plugging in tropical volcanoes so yeah we sort of some science distinguish between wet and dry volcanoes so have all kind of that hasn't been active for a while.
Simon Carn: Because when volcanoes are active they're very hot and they sort of boil off of the water, so they sort of dry out. Simon Carn: But a volcano is that have been inactive for a while it can get pretty wet and so, then, because a lot of these gases are they do dissolve in water so things like so to, for example, will dissolve in water and. Simon Carn: And it's not it doesn't make it to the surface, because it's dissolving in the water inside the volcano so you can, in some cases. Simon Carn: We call this scrubbing where it gas emissions are scrubbed by watering the volcano and that can be.
Simon Carn: It can can mask a lot of these emissions, particularly of volcanoes have been inactive for a while. Simon Carn: So, in theory, you could measure the you know you could measure the water coming out of the volcano and and the chemistry, the water, and it will tell you something about the activity. Janet Callahan: All right, i'm going to jump in and because we've got bill bill here they'll rose alright so bill so. Janet Callahan: And we saw how the moon kind of photo bombed So if you were to tell us one story that you would like to relate to about being a professor here at Michigan tech or just across your journeys tell tell us a tale.
William Rose: wow one story oh. William Rose: it's a story about. William Rose: Taking. students. To the field.
William Rose: That is so important. William Rose: and William Rose: I think what you realize is that our students are technologically adept. William Rose: At really know. William Rose: How it is all quantitative problems and they're really interested in.
doing that. William Rose: And they have great confidence and doing that well when you take them. William Rose: to Guatemala or Indonesia or the Philippines. William Rose: They are confronted with. William Rose: Another world. William Rose: And that is.
William Rose: With the. William Rose: realization. William Rose: that the problems of people in the world. William Rose: So.
William Rose: rise. William Rose: To the same levels of importance. William Rose: Because of their culture.
William Rose: These people need. William Rose: food. William Rose: or their family that night. William Rose: And they have. William Rose: Other issues associated with them and so.
What happens. William Rose: From these events is that. William Rose: I mean what Simon does is incredibly gifted. William Rose: And it solves. William Rose: Many quantitative problems of knowing what clouds are deaf hard. William Rose: dangerous.
William Rose: But. William Rose: That danger. William Rose: That we defined from our. William Rose: perspective is not the same. As what people. William Rose: were living on the ground next the volcano and it's so important.
William Rose: That at Michigan tech. William Rose: Our students have learned both. William Rose: people learn how to solve things in the quantitative way in a very focused way like an engineer, does it. William Rose: And they've learned. William Rose: How to listen.
To people. William Rose: and understand the danger from their own cultural situation and i'm really proud of that, we have a great Program. William Rose: And so we got to keep it going. William Rose: Because this program does it your assignment talk about highly sophisticated methods. But.
William Rose: Dealing with social cultures is highly sophisticated do. William Rose: And we need to do both. William Rose: And so. William Rose: i'm proud of you guys i'm 10 years retired. William Rose: And it's still going on, keep it up. William Rose: I mean, as the Dean i'm so happy that you put this.
William Rose: opportunity in front of us. William Rose: Because I believe that the sustain. William Rose: broad approach to science is really important, but it's even more important. William Rose: When we have a social context.
William Rose: mm hmm so thank you. Janet Callahan: Oh, thank you bill it's been an honor to have you as a co host here, you know and. Janet Callahan: You know. Janet Callahan: I appreciate so much your dedication to students across your entire career and.
Janet Callahan: you're having recruited Simon and many other people to the department and for there being, this really strong. Janet Callahan: Research Area, that doesn't neglect the human experience I think it's it's really profoundly important it's been a life's work you've left a legacy bill and so thank you Thank you so much. Janet Callahan: Just just I was mentioning where I live in town so just I just have to walk 20 feet up and there's one of the. Janet Callahan: What is it called you know where you can. Janet Callahan: You can scan and you can learn about the geo what is it called bill.
William Rose: You say. Janet Callahan: Yes, there's a geo say yes, because there's an old mine just just above my hill. towns.
Janet Callahan: know. there's another Columbia. Janet Callahan: Know it's another huge know yeah and and this area, I mean copper, so if those of you don't understand this so copper is found in its native elemental form here and there are very few places on the planet, I mean I can name only one other than I know of. Janet Callahan: course you can dig copper out of the ground here they've dug it out as far as they can like actually mine but they cut slabs of copper out of the earth here. Janet Callahan: and use it to make the first wires in in the United States and i'm not sure everybody understands still like it was oxidized copper carbon dioxide or things like that, but.
Janet Callahan: Great Simon go ahead. Simon Carn: I just like I took that I took a slide about that, out of my talks was too long already, but you know solid copper usually combined with sulfur and copper sulfide oars. Simon Carn: Which is kind of unusual cumin or coppers unusual because it's native, and so the question is what happened to the sulfur. Simon Carn: And you know bill things about this a lot, but one possibility is just the software is all D gassed and being a big eruptions and, like the kind of things I was showing but some you know billions of years ago and so it's all kind of interlinked, you know sulfur and copper. Simon Carn: have an affinity for each other. Simon Carn: Except.
Janet Callahan: Simon pick your favorite technical question that you can see up there to you can you can see the right. yeah. Simon Carn: there's one that says, are there any volcanoes you're worried about.
Simon Carn: From an anonymous attendee. Simon Carn: yeah it's interesting like I said at the end you know when's The next speaker option going to occur, and the ones i'm most worried about the ones where nothing's happening right now. Simon Carn: So Pinatubo before it erupted when it was just a forest did mountain know and actually knew it was a volcano and the LG john as well. Simon Carn: sort of you know, totally had been inactive for so long it's sort of no one really recognized it as a volcanic structure, so the ones that produced the biggest eruptions. Simon Carn: tend to be the ones that have been inactive for many centuries and millennia, so they kind of lose their footing to lose their volcanic for me don't recognize them as volcano so the ones i'm most worried about her and. Simon Carn: Other sort of sleeping ones that are not really monitoring right now, because they didn't look like volcanoes Maybe someone like Indonesia or in the Philippines.
Janet Callahan: What are the marines sources and so too, I was curious about that too. Simon Carn: yeah so that's mostly algae sort of things in the ocean that metabolize soul, for us, and then they. Simon Carn: You know they basically like they they consume sulfur from the oceans and they convert it into a gas that is released into the atmosphere and that's. Simon Carn: Quite a significant amount of the sulfur and atmosphere comes from you know there's marine sources I don't know a great deal about that, but it says basically algae. Janet Callahan: Right pick your next favorite question Simon. Who.
Simon Carn: One that says, did the eruption of crack a towel creates a significant drop in global temperatures. Simon Carn: crocodiles and another famous Indonesian volcano. Simon Carn: And yeah it was so that one was that erupted in 1883.
Simon Carn: Famous famous eruption from any probably everyone's heard of cracker tower krakatoa. Simon Carn: Please very large one of the largest noises ever heard because I eruption produce heat bang traveled around the world, several times and just picked up by. Simon Carn: But it was kind of similar insights to Pinatubo. Simon Carn: I think the sulfur output from that one, so I think it did produce a sort of similar dropping temperatures to see Pinatubo so yeah. Janet Callahan: Well, in in so i'm picking a question here from toby which volcano in the US is most likely to erupt into dangerous way. Janet Callahan: Could it be mountaineer or or what and then my phone question, that is, does it matter where it erupts you know I mean you know what I mean really relative to the slides you've been showing about their rotation.
Simon Carn: You know it doesn't that the location doesn't matter from the point of view at detecting it for sure I mean all US volcanoes are pretty well monitored, a lot of them are monitored from the from the ground, you know not not just from space, a lot of the. Simon Carn: sort of remote Alaskan volcanoes and the aleutian islands and Alaska they they're monitored predominately by satellite. Simon Carn: But in terms of you know, the next big. Simon Carn: Corruption, the US places like you know mount hood like some of the cascade volcanoes mount hood mount St Helens mount rainier they're very dangerous because they're close to pretty large populations, of course, and they have a lot of.