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Friends welcome you to channel Ninja capital this morning review, let's look at the current situation in the markets which events are now coming up and what movements expected from it on the key assets of the oil dollar gold rubles, and so on, let's start with the calendars see there today, we planned and Based on this, we will think about where the Chinese market will move, well , the holiday continues here, so if the analysis is not very good, they successfully came up with the idea of making a holiday according to the logic of things at the beginning of the fourth quarter, the last weeks of September would be the most successful time and, accordingly, it would be possible to release it every year steam at the end of the 3rd quarter and then calmly start the fourth quarter calmly, so friends today are the volume of industrial production in Germany month to month, but judging by the dynamics of movement, the economy is still cooling in Germany and in this respect Germany is moving worse than the United States, again, this is due to structure of the American economy oh and the German German economy, of course, it is sharpened for the automotive industry, this is what is more connected with this, so on, European cb pieces will come out, but so far, from my point of view, it probably won't produce such a special effect today 1430 the publication of the minutes of the cb meeting on monetary policy here can there will be significant volatility in the euro around this time, but further the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the United States at 15:30 because this is precisely the value of this statistic, which is associated with unemployment and another static one that is related to the income of Americans, it is key in making a decision of the FRS fair with especially inflation does not bother him in the third or fourth line, they understand perfectly well that the key moment is employment and incomes in most citizens, inflation is, on the one hand, a necessary mechanism in order to realize this so that it is but no more 2 percent weighted average again this is a macro economic calculations, but on the other hand, the growth of inflation will cut both the development of the labor market and the growth of incomes, and therefore forest looks at inflation only in terms of income indicators and, accordingly, employment, of course, there is a rather complex dependence there, as in most cases, but nevertheless for FRS is the key indicator related to income and employment last time there was a surge in initial applications there were some movements in California which, for the first time when the outliers arose, were explained by the fact that there was something, taking into account some peculiarities of their own, but apparently here I am I think this week will be significant why, because if you analyze the data that were previously received, there is growth and, accordingly, the breakout of the movement value of 400 food to break through it and, accordingly, today if this movement continues, it is very likely that we really got a situation here when 400 will be exceeded in the future if events develop like this like m well, on the one hand the Fed should continue to provide a stimulating world of asset purchase and, accordingly, is not yet even think well really help not just you say as to whether to start increasing rates but here the devil is in the details because that's the growth, he just has to is largely due to the fact that inflation eats up economic growth and here the pressure of two factors turns out to be scissors, and, accordingly, a situation arises here when the FRS does not declare back and in the further movement it can turn out in such a way that it will be against the actions of vrs and the result was the fact that the US federal Reserve system, she will be forced at some point to take a impulsive decisions and make impulsive actions on the other hand if we analyze the motion graphics volatility indices SNT it begs a solution before the end of this year the situation should be stable well at least reasonably and no collapses, nothing should happen, but as soon as January and February 2022 comes, the most unpredictable options are possible here, and, accordingly, the criterion that the situation will worsen is that today's data will come out more than expected more than the forecast, and in this situation it is very likely that there will be a breakout in the future 400 thousand and, accordingly, well, there may be an effect when the FRS has lost control over these indicators, so friends, let's see what events are still expected today what has already happened in Pakistan earthquakes the nuance is that to sit down on graphic activity if it starts, it can affect a larger number of regions, therefore, by more and more risks arise in the same place India China, respectively, if this activity continues and an earthquake starts in India and China will also be very serious so well, crypto begins to come to life to the question that all of it will now be reset to zero and so on, there is no too much many and you or large players they hold the crypt, respectively, are not interested in fluctuating movements in them in order to buy out cheaper and sell at a higher price, this gives the most readable gas prices decreased after Putin offered additional supplies to Europe, but I don’t know it seems to me here any significant news there is a speech by the head of the pharmacy that there is someone there, in any case, she would have pierced this bubble and blown off a little, and here the most important thing is that at the moment the demand still exceeds supply and this news is just a movement that has played out on a bloated market where the margin is high, I think there is a high probability that gas prices will now hold and then either, but already in December in January we will see further growth, at least if there is no significant change in the ratio of supply and demand, which may affect this. influence either a warm winter but at the moment they still predict a cold winter or a certain kat in energy production in terms of emphasis on green technologies, but again here it is not entirely clear even if now everything seems to be canceled and say let's use coal, but where you’ll get coal, it’s usually renewable energy sources, those countries that have focused on wind generation on they generate a fairly unstable flow of solar generation, and this is the whole problem, and this flow, especially as regards the generation wind, it is not stable not only during the day; it is not stable at all during the year if there are strong winds, then accordingly a lot of electricity is generated if there are no winds or they are weak this energy lift is produced a little, of course, there are regions, for example, there is the extreme north extreme south to the north pole and where there are winds blowing all the time and are very strong, but if we talk about the installation of wind turbines, let's say somewhere in Europe, here the dependence on the weather will be quite noticeable and therefore those countries that have begun to significantly increase green technologies especially when o connected with the wind generation, they were faced with the fact that a steady flow of electricity is not generated, so take the transition to gas prices the monthly timeframe really is such a situation that they approached a certain Rubicon and from this Rubicon 1 can occur and, accordingly, the gas price movement well here is the key At the level 2 and 8, it is again the criteria for this movement to break through the value of 5 at the current moment, and on the monthly timeframe there is a double top, it can be seen here quite well, but if you focus on the weekly timeframe, the rise in gas prices is not over yet, but again there is a risk that we have a double top here and the criterion for the fact that here a double top is a collectible pc from and the breakout of the value 5 is then taken as for the gas, the daily timeframe, but look here, there really was a hitch, but again if you compare this price rollback that was yesterday it much weaker than those moments are associated with growth that previously occurred therefore but I would not argue now that this is a reversal formation, we will see all the gas starts to fall to here from the point of view of the daily timeframe, perhaps everything will really go towards a decrease in the gas price if the downward movement goes down and breaks through the first level of 525 for a fire, this is not 5 is 525, but as for today, how will events develop today and this week, and here we have clearly drawn the level of 5.6 5 point sixty two hundredths, respectively, if this level does not break through, I think either tomorrow or next week we will see further the exponential growth of gas is that there is someone who said something about the supply of gas, well, there is a Russian president or a president where the other side is there we are for some large gas company, but you need to clearly understand that this is news that it allows you to release steam because gas is not I hit like this, you just can't take it out of nowhere if the capacities have been reduced, it takes some time to increase them, so it will not appear right away even if there is an urgent need, therefore the nearest trend will determine how it will develop today tomorrow will determine if there is no breakdown here we continue to climb the goal for 2008 high enough they can still be rewritten taking into account the availability of funds that walks around the market as friends, let's take a look at Gazprom, but yes, here really yesterday was the first key milestone which is in the area of 379 he was there I was there he was breaking through there was a protrade but look if we consider the medium-urgently all this movement, then here it turns out that the closing was above this level, that is, it speaks of the fact that here, despite the attempted reversal, there is a high probability that this is not a reversal formation as long as the criterion for it to be a reversal is a corrective pullback and, accordingly, a breakout of this range 345 350, paying attention to the fact that the levels can shift a little and they shift only for assets that traded for a long time it is gold oil there, but they are also shifting, but to a lesser extent this price niche for Gazprom for a new one before, he didn’t bargain very much here at these values, but if we consider 380 390 such prices did not exist at all so friends if we switch to clean copy for Gazprom here we went sometimes and the wicky movement down is open because they broke through 380 379, respectively, here the new trading range for him is 369 390 395 in fact a good trading range, in principle for the intro, before that is quite enough here it seems to me I don’t even have to bother bothering about That will be he will not fall The current situation indicates that it is very likely that Gazprom will open in this sideways 373 387 well, here, for a confident growth, if such will occur, it will be necessary to move the target of which is at 1373, this is the value and I think with in the morning , such a movement is more likely to occur, depending on the situation on the world sites of the area either there will be a breakdown of 369 and, accordingly, movement to the area of 360, or if a breakdown does not occur here, we get a collection rebound to the area of 391 388, this means nights Savik indicates donata that it is very likely that we will see a downward movement today, but in case of a breakdown of this new level 369 savic she has negative friends so further returning to the magic calendar well today there will be quite a lot of events and not connected with Europe ccb so I suppose the euro is flying today so friends let's move on more in-depth with the Vicks chart the index fuck volatility but here the situation is quite positive and therefore that it did not grow, that is, it is moving in a consulting range, and here, judging by yesterday's close, there is even a fairly tangible probability that a breakout of the level 26 and the departure of Frein 18 and a half may occur this week, but for this you need good data on unemployment so that there is no movement by 400, but if you follow the usual logic, if you follow to use margin logic about the opposite if bad data comes out, that is, the growth of primary orders, then there should be a decrease in vix, because in this situation, according to the logic of things, the FRS should delay the decrease in incentive measures, and if you rely on such a word as a movement fractal, but certain pictures that have already been drawn on the movement the prices of this asset, then it is very likely that, until the new year, the wicks will be kept in this range, but by 2518 by half and then it will fly upward so friends further sanpin is generally optimistic, that is, you see a new new bottom that has been drawn in the area of 4300 4208 now it is from it fights back and tries to grow at the moment, well, the target is the movement of 4470, it just suggests itself, and, accordingly, the breakdown of this layer of 4280 1070 will lead to a very strong corrective movement downward, this whole formation on the daily chart indicates that it is more likely that either a movement is developing here in the near future , or after consolidation, in this narrowed range of movement, it will go up, but well, you can see for yourself there was a breakdown and the question is only when this breakdown will finally make itself felt as friends further oil did not make a little target 84 and therefore there was a local reversal, but so far if the operation on the hourly timeframe this is so-so just a small corrective pullback, respectively, for today, the first half of the day of holding the level of 80 as much as nine-tenths eighty-three tenths by brand will lead to that it became a miracle the upward movement will continue to target 82 and 8 right here to this value if here today the foreground appears on work on oil we will see a collectible rollback to 79 and one so friends gave a ruble dollar ruble dollar stuck here in this range you see rubles do not allow to strengthen now not yet a little rolled back and starts to mope a little while the current moment is slightly broken through this range 7230 372 36 will come to the fact that the ruble will first strengthen by 7 225 and then an impulse will go from here, the target will go to 7205 72 such a scenario with the current oil seems natural, but judging by all this movement there will be consolidation here now and from here there will be an upward movement, the target will be 72 and 5 such a scenario, I think most likely today is less likely the scenario is to break through both the range and go to the area of 7205, so on, the futures on the RTS index should now consolidate here and, accordingly, in the event of a breakdown of 180 2200, there will be immediately movement in which the target of 184 501 is higher if now in the morning you will still try fatigue 500 on, respectively, finds consolidate around 180 178 thousand 850 right here to this value but here everything indicates that for now it should be here this sideways before lunch and then let's see how friends further euro dollar look some time ago a few months ago we were considering the start of breakdown one whole 1790 I then noticed that the breakdown of 1 whole 1790 it is very likely pr will lead at level 1 a whole 16 right here, in fact, this actually happened, but since the instrument that itself contains a lot of players and a lot of interests of its world economy is very strongly tied to it, then, accordingly, such a simple easy movement on 116 did not work out, it turned out to be tricky and very so muddy, but at the moment today there are a lot of events and I cb if we consider for hours who turned around here the purpose of his movement here is the yellow line 1 whole 1615 but today, taking into account the publication of information about the performance of European dog lovers, there will be very large volatility, but everything indicates that even if it is for an oder of 1 whole 1540, it is very likely that the upward movement will develop in the euro, so friends well, and Sberbank where without a burbank not compete with Gazprom until Gazprom is ahead of him 400 came up first here the situation at the moment and indicate that he has strong support 357 and 358 if she does not break through , we have all this movement leads to the test movement and tries 376 not to go up in jerks, but for now there are signs that this growth and it has ended, judging by the hourly and daily timeframes, there is no breakdown of this level 357 and 358, there will be evidence that it is very likely that we will turn around somewhere now friends I draw your attention to Sberbank shorting it is impossible even when if we come to the moment when everything will fall down do not short Sberbank shorty others will be papers VTB there rus Bieber but not Sberbank but because Sberbank is on the one hand a proxy to the Russian economy and oil on the other hand is ключевая фишка которая будет участвовать в дальнейшем развитии российской экономики и и цифры цифровизации и поэтому эту бумагу нельзя швов даже когда шли будет падать вот должно быть табу на шок сбербанка так друзья все основные инструменты спасибо за внимание хорошего торгового дня вам успехов во всех начинаниях профита здоровья и всего самого лучшего счастлива
2021-10-09 09:59
