Professor Ian Goldin: "Development: A Very Short Introduction" | Talks at Google
Thank. You very much it's a huge, pleasure to be thank you for coming to this. Talk on such a glorious day I know. It's, it's very tempting to be outside but. I think that development. Is the most important, subject in the world and so. I'm. Glad you have. Prioritized, it at least for your lunchtime, it's. Important, because it's not only about what. Happens, with other people, I think in the end it's about ourselves and, who, we are as people, and. What I try, and convey, in this very short introduction is, everything. I know about development. In 40,000, words which. Is about. 30-something, years of my, life and career. Working. In development I've been fortunate to, work. In many many different roles. In this. I've. Worked. For. Development. Agencies, I've worked for the World Bank I've worked for the European Bank for Reconstruction, Development. As head of policy for the World Bank Group, and. I've. Also been on the other side of the table I've negotiated, on, behalf of countries, with, the international, agencies, and. I was. In the South African, government as. Nelson Mandela's economic, advisor and. Ran. The State Development Bank for Southern Africa, owned, by the South African government and. So. It was really a delight to be asked by oup to write this short book but. A big challenge a big. Challenge because, as. Much. As we've, learnt over the last, 70. Plus years about, why, some people are rich in why some people are poor and why some countries are rich and some countries poor, why. Development, takes off and then reverses. And. How to achieve it. What's. Extraordinary, is how much we don't know and. How. Difficult. Development. Remains. How, intractable, it mean remains, in some places, despite. The quite. Extraordinary advances. And so. One. Has to approach this subject, I think with, a degree of humbleness. Because. Each. Case, is different there's no cookie cutter and there's, certainly no recipe, for development heard was so simple the whole world would be have. Escaped poverty and. We wouldn't be having this conversation. At. The same time. We. Can celebrate a huge, success, with development, they've been the, most extraordinary achievements. In. My lifetime and, many, of you are younger than me in your lifetimes. And. So. There, must be some things we can learn from all of this there, must be some takeaways, and what the book tries, to do is strike this balance between. Not. Wanting to. Imply, that there's. A recipe. But. Also not wanting to imply. That we haven't learnt. For. Those that are curious this. Is a wonderful, subject, because. There's so much evidence out, there the world's, 200. Plus countries in the experience, over the last hundreds, of years, but. There's also. Massive. Uncertainties. And questions. Going forward which. Remain, unresolved, and, so I would encourage anyone, that's interested in development to, remain interested, and not think that anyway you know tick that box it's, there's. Nothing to add because everyone has, much to add and I think it's particularly interesting being in Google. Because. One of the great great, questions. Is how. Will technological. Change. Impact. On development going forward and I'll say something about, that but. We know very little about it. And. I certainly don't subscribe to some. People in Silicon Valley's view not from the sensible people in Google of course which. Is, you. Know I guess. Best. Articulated, in the book. Better. Not name which. Suggested. That there's no problem an app cannot solve, you.
Know Most technology, will will, be the. Panacea that that cures, the world's problems, whether. Its climate or water or poverty, etc. On, they say at the same time there's massive advances, that, the. Technology. Can certainly, offer and we need to think about this, very, very carefully. So. For me the great revelation. Was of course having, been an exiled, from South Africa. Thinking. I would never go back in, my, lifetime, living. In London and Paris to. Discover, how. Quickly change can happen. Two. Months after the Berlin Wall came down Nelson. Mandela was released after, 27. Years in prison, and. I, never thought I would have. That event in my lifetime I thought South, Africa was in an intractable bloody. Civil war. For. The future and. That. Dramatic, change changed. My life too because I then went back and and, worked with him for the next seven. Years. Now. These tipping, points these rapid, changes are. Clearly. Both. About the forces that are happening in individual. Countries but. Also elsewhere. And, so one of the the great great. Challenge is understanding the interconnectedness. Between, changes. In one place and changes. In another and that is getting more complex. Within. Five. Years of the Berlin Wall, dictatorships. Across the world. Fell. Latin. America, Africa and, Asia, which had been largely. Autocratic. Became. Largely. Democratic. Over. A very short period, of time not, because of things that they were doing necessarily. Although that no doubt contributed. But from, things that are happening in Europe big. Change and the story of the, interaction. Between. Policies. In one, country, or one set of countries and what happens is of course a very old story in development. Colonialism. Imperialism, being. Part, of that problem, so, you can fight as hard as you want for change in your country, and I believe people should be fighting. For that but. What. Others do and how. The world behaves. Matters, desperately, as well, and that's, why we are all responsible for development, because. What. The UK does or what the US does or what, Google, does when, he does matter to. The prospects, for people's lives. In. Other places, consciously. And unconsciously. Now. One of the most other, dramatic. Effects, of this. Tumbling, down of walls, and of, the growth of the internet, and interconnectedness. Has. Been this extraordinary, story, of the, improvement. Of life expectancy, around. The world and that's. Because ideas are traveling more rapidly more. Quickly, to more places than ever in history and, ideas. Are the driving force, of history. It's. What makes the difference between. How. One used. To do things and how one can do things and that imagination, about. What the future is is what, drives, development. Ambitions, if. You do a thought experiment and try and think about why, is North Korea now. 10%. Of the income of South. Korea, when. They were at the same income levels 60. Years ago the, answer has to be because their ideas, are. Different, and the. Way that those are being operationalized. In their, country same people no, cultural, differences, or other differences, between, these people and, the same story could be told for example of, East and West Germany and they're, very very different. Living. Standards, etc. But. We should be careful not to fall into the trap that that. Says oh well one is simply market, forces and, the, other is not Cuba. Has a higher average life, expectancy than. The US, although it's only got twenty percent of its average per-capita income, levels. So. It's not simply about markets. It's about how, much gun, is prioritized, things what their policies, are that really does make a difference but if you feeling. That policy, doesn't matter just do, these sorts of thought experiments. And I talked about some of them in the book Ghana, and South Korea used to have the, same incomes, in 1965. In fact Ghana was wealthier. Than. South Korea, today. South Korea has an income which is 14, times that of, Ghana. Argentina. Used to be the fifth richest country, in the world today. Li's the 65th, what's. Happened why, is this the case, those. Are the sorts of things I explore, in the, book and bad, policies, have a lot to do with it by policies, I mean the decisions, that governments make, regarding.
The Key drivers, of development, and they are health. Education. Infrastructure. The. Hardware, and the, software and. It's. That. Judicial. Systems rule of law that really, make an enormous, difference now. Because ideas, are traveling, more rapidly around the world there's some things which. Are sometimes. Slightly independent. Of national. Policy and life, expectancy, is broadly. Although. There's some major exceptions, like, that so average life expectancy is. Increased in the world by about 20 years over, the past 40 years it. Took from the Stone Age to the, 1960s. To get that sort of improvement, in life. Expectancy, and. It's because ideas have traveled more rapidly, particularly. Since, about 1990. And then the late 90s, with the development, of the internet very simple ideas like. Washing your hands prevents, contagious, diseases smoking, kills you wearing, a safety belt saves your life those. Sorts of ideas and very. Very complex ideas like those embedded in vaccines, in new, cures for cancer spreading. Around the world some, big exceptions, notably, southern Africa, because. Of hiv/aids, where life expectancy went, down by. 20 years when, the rest the world went up simply. Because of hiv/aids, and, Russia for, a whole set of other circumstances, where life expectancies. Decreased by, about ten years since, the fall of the Soviet Union as the health system has collapsed as. Suicide. Smoking, car, accidents, and, other things, the. Crime take their toll. Now. One of the most difficult questions is what we mean by development. And, of course when I talk about development, I'm talking about the. Development of individuals, lives and, capabilities. As well, as economic, development other, people, my wife who's a psychotherapist. Has. A completely, different meaning for the term and. Of course the the fundraising office, at Oxford is called the development office so. When, you google, development. You get. Many different things. That. Was a big question in naming this book because, we might get the wrong people picking it up no that was a good thing anyway, so, let's. Have a term that has lots, of different meanings where lots of people might pick it up by mistake and learn something. But. This, concept, remains. Very, contested. Economists. Tend to think of this as, economic. Development. So. They'd say a country is more developed if it has a higher per capita income of, course, that, is an extremely. Important. Day of, what. Development is there, are countries like Bangladesh for. Example have average, life expectancy of. 75. I. Mentioned. Cuba and it's life expectancy. And there, are some much wealthier countries have had lower life, expectancies. There. Are countries like, Bangladesh again. That. Have very low fertility rates, and. Other. Countries, at much, higher incomes, that have much more rapid fertility, there, are countries that have higher levels of girls education etc so. Defining what we mean by, development. Is pretty, crucial. In. Order to have a conversation about what are we striving for, as a society, are we striving for higher incomes, do, we, need growth in order, to get development, or, can you have development without growth which. I don't think is possible not, allowing, levels, of income which is why, this lets, get away from growth, idea, that, the rich countries, are, sometimes. Falling in love with, particularly. Greens I think. Doesn't work for say Africa. Because. If you add a per capita income level of $2,000, and. You better grow if. You want to raise that no.
Amount Of redistribution but does the u.s. still need to grow does. Britain still need to grow that's an interesting, question. What is it that we mean by development, in these contexts. And of, course this is changing, all the time, now, one of the most exciting things is. The. Capabilities. Approach. Which. Says that development. Is about people's ability, to transform, their own lives and, this is Amartya, Sen who really was, at the forefront of this that's, how we should think about the realm do people have agency. Are, people, able to, affect. Their own futures, and that's. Both about well you better be alive in order to that you better be properly nourished you, better be educated, to know about what the options are, you better be healthy, and. You. Better have freedoms and rights. In order, to affect your own outcome, and I'm very attracted, to this capabilities. Approach. As. People become more and more educated. Around the world they, learn more but. We should be careful not to fall into the trap to, believe that simply more education. Means. More. Freedom because. We know that, this isn't true and one of the great challenges, for development is understanding, why highly educated, people. Sometimes. Make decisions. Which seems to be contrary to development, I'm thinking for example about the highly educated. Jihadists. For. Example, who, on average have very high levels of education, so. Education, in itself is my, I don't believe is a development, objective, it's a means and that's, the true of many, many. Different dimensions, because. They're more people in the world educated. And connected. We. Should expect more rapid, change and a, crucial question of, development, is, can. Societies, adapt fast, enough let's, say you develop, today we you'll be developed, tomorrow, and as. The world changes more rapidly. This. Becomes a bigger and bigger concern, and it's, a concern not only, between countries. It's a concern, within, countries. Is the, reason, we. Have Trump and brexit, because, some parts of Britain or some parts of the US are developing. Much more rapidly than, other parts, for, example and, most, increasing. Differentiation. Within countries, is a big, concern, now our, talks about how the world changed. Since the Berlin Wall came down and. Some. Describe this as a process, of globalization. Which I talked a bit, about in, the book by. Which we simply mean, flows, across. National, borders, of goods services products. And ideas. Got. A bad rap recently. But. My view is this is the most progressive force, for, development, that history has ever known but it's also the most dangerous and. Potentially. The ugliest, you. See these transformations. In flows. Depicted. Here as. Big. Walls came down the. Flows between, countries, of financial. Flows in this case, investment. Aid. The. Black is private equity, and bonds, and foreign. Direct investment. Increased. But. So too did their complexity. And one of the great challenges, going forward for, countries, is. Managing. Complexity. Is. That everything. Comes from more and more places and where. You fit into supply, chains and where you fit into the realm of ideas and how you influence things is, becoming, more. Complex. Now. Development, really does happen these. Are two simple graphs, of the last 2,000. Years or two simple lines, depicting.
Income, Growth that's read exponential. And, population. Growth that's green, arithmetic. The. Simple point of this is, that we in a period which is unprecedented, in, progress. In. Our lifetimes, both, in terms of income growth. And population. Growth great, challenge thinking forward, is, is. It sustainable. Will. These very, unusual, patterns. Be. Replicated. Going. Forward and I believe the pace of this change is because, of integration. Of ideas because. Evolution in effect is happening more quickly because, people are discarding, their old ideas and taking on new ideas quicker. About how to do things and how to learn how. To get girls into school how. To stay, healthy how. To do things of that sort of nature. So. We see in, this period, average. Life expectancy, increasing. We see illiteracy, going. Down dramatically. In a world of five billion people at the end of the 80s, only. Two billion people could read and write in the world of, 7.5, billion people, today six. And a half billion people can read and write four and a half billion, more. Literate people and if you believe in that. Knowledge as a, way. Of getting agency. Of your own life learning. Then of course is the most exciting, thing it's. Also the, reason I believe this is the slowest lunch hour you'll know for the rest of your lives relax. And enjoy it and. That's, because there are more people with more ideas, participating. More, and more in I, live. Challenging. And replication. And invention. Of new ideas and their. Application, to their local environments. So, innovation is accelerating. Because. There are more participants. And they sparking, off each other in new, ways both, random distribution, of genius, just. More geniuses, but. Also sparks. More sparks, flying, and as. A result of all of this the number of desperately poor people's gone down by, about 300. Million. Despite, the world's population, going up by. Over. A, billion. And this has never happened before. In history we have a rapid, population growth and, a reduction in poverty at the same time so, something is happening in our lifetimes, which is extraordinarily exciting. And leads. To a great. Optimism, there. Poverty, can actually be overcome. We. Should be able to live to see a world of no, poverty but will we and that. Is the question that's, on the development, agenda and of course it's not only about. Poverty. That we can we, care about many other things as well, now. The SDGs. And other, agendas, out of the UN are the first collective, effort, sustainable. Development goals Millennium Development, Goals, preceding, it to, establish collective.
Goal Posts, and that's very important, because when one has collective, goal posts. Team. Players. Know what to, do and the, teams of course are the countries themselves plus. Everyone, around the world trying to help them in the public and private sectors, as well as in a charitable. And other institutions, has. This led to great progress yes. But. Of course. The. Emissions are high and much, much, more needs. To be done. In. Addition to to writing this. Very short introduction I've written over the last couple. Of years this book ager discovery, which is arguing. That. This. Is a Renaissance, moment, in human history the. Best time by far to be alive but, also like the Renaissance not. Only associated with enormous, creativity, that. We celebrate, obviously, in that case 500, years later but. Also a, perilous. Time you know the Renaissance, ended in religious, wars. And. Complete, destruction, of the intellectual. Environment and. Experts, as well as the hounding of all diversity, out of Europe including the Inquisition's. Etc. And the. Question, is how, one, manages, rapid development, and. Social. And political change, and I, address that both. In the age of discovery and, in. The. Very short introduction, now. Development. Is a very uneven, process. And one. Of the great challenges is. That, while the, differences, between countries, have. Been reduced, with. An exception. Of about. The bottom 25, countries, or, in conflict or in fragile states and we can come back to those if you, in conversation. Increasingly. We see differences, within. Countries, and, this poses very big questions, for development. Agencies, and others because if a country is on average. Can. Afford to overcome, poverty. Why. Should, external. Parties, have. A role. To play in it what is the role of, outsiders. In overcoming, poverty for, example in, the, Northeast, of Brazil and. Other. Middle-income. Countries. Of, course many countries, remain, in dire poverty, not least in, Africa. Now. Rising, inequality. Is. Largely. The result of the. Very uneven, distribution of. The. Benefits. Of. Globalization. You know at some places particularly dynamic cities are doing, much. Better than rural. Areas, and smaller, decaying towns whether, it's in India or, whether it's in the US or whether it's in the UK and.
Another. Very big issue, these. Are just numbers, around. Inequality. Another, big issue associated. With this is, of course, taxation. And the. Ability, of governments, in a globalized, world to, get the revenues, to, pay for redistribution, to invest, in health, education. Infrastructure. All the things that governments, have to invest in and the. Poor of the country is the greater-than need for investment so crucial, area is. What. Is the relationship in globalized firms and globalized, tax systems, and national. Financial. Capabilities. For, development, and that's one aspect of, the international. Responsibilities. Towards. Development. So. One big issue going, forward which is a newer issue is this, rising, inequality within. Countries, and how. One addresses it, the, second, big issue is. Growing. Systemic. Risk, when. We connect, and when we open our borders and have interconnected. Systems, whether they're cyber systems Airport. Hubs or. Financial. Systems. We. Don't only grow our capabilities. But. We grow our interdependency and, the. Challenge, for many countries, particularly poor countries, is, managing, this interdependency how, do we. Ensure. That they have the capability. To not. Be either the spreaders, or the importers, of. Financial. Crises, pandemics. Cyber, attacks etc. This. Interdependence II is growing, as we. Become more. Numerous wealthier. And more interconnected, when. People were poorer in the. Countryside. They. Could do whatever they wanted that didn't affect the world but, as they become, wealthier. And more connected. All. Their actions and all, our actions have, spillover effects, so, one is this contagion. Between systems, and inter dependency the underbelly, of interconnectivity. A second. Dimension of this of course is, the, spillover effects, of the goods becoming, the band's it's, wonderful. That so many countries, are escaping energy, poverty and, climbing, the energy curve. That's. Fantastic, at, the same time a possible. Result is catastrophic climate change it's. Wonderful, that so many people around the world are taking antibiotics, a. Possible. Outcome is. Rapidly. Rising antibiotic, resistance, it's, wonderful, that people in other countries have, the options to enjoy tuna, sushi like you do in your canteen. Possible. Outcome is extinction, of the tuna, the. Summing up of the, goods. When. More and more people enjoy development. Can. Lead to very, bad outcomes. And the. Challenge here is to, understand. That, we all have a responsibility in. This that. As people. Become more connected, their freedom, grows, they. Have more choice as their. Income grows, and as their ability. To choose and. Take. Drugs or I mean. Recreational. Drugs antibiotics. And, other drugs. Maybe. Recreational, drugs but we won't comment on that. Clay. Have, the lights on. Etc. But. With that freedom comes a new responsibility, and, that, is a recognition, that our freedoms, have to be curtailed, if we, want others to be able to enjoy them too and this, is a big big challenge to the market system now. I'm. Gonna rush through because I've taken a bit more time than I planned on this some. Mega trends I mentioned. Rising life expectancy. Converging. Except. For Southern Africa, collapsing. Because, of hiv/aids. I. Mentioned. Fertility. Going, down except. For Africa, where the uncertainty is, primarily. In four, countries Nigerian. Asia. And. A, couple of others so, world life, expectancy. Improving, but because of fertility going, down. Populations. Flattening. And declining, in many, countries I do not believe. And I don't I or throughout. The arguments, in the. Book that we're, gonna that the problem is too many people in the world and, I which of course some people worry about in, K söderman the world's population, be flattening. Median. Ages doubling. Around, the world, Africa. The only expect, exception. And that changes, many things including schooling. So. We need to remove from our mental map ideas of population, pyramids, and put, in place these, sorts of structures, which, are the structure, of the future, and they.
Have A dramatic implication. For many things and they also demonstrate. What all the woman in the room know which, is women are wiser than men. Women. Live long in all countries, of the world they have better development, prospects. And the, simple answers, that don't make as many stupid, decisions, they. Don't smoke as much they don't drink as much that, unstick as many knives into children don't drive as many cars into as many trees and they live longer around, the world but, the opposite, in every country, of the world more, young boys than. Girls and, the. Reason is because we all live in sexist, societies, and the, status, income career, prospects, of boys are greater than girls and the girls no longer look after us in our old age and, so. People are choosing with only have one kid to, have more boys than girls and this is a global, phenomena so increasingly, skewed distribution and, then of course has dramatic, consequences. For many things every country's, unique China, one-child, policy. U.s.. Immigration. Very, significant. I did this before Trump, was elected, and it matters, because, over half the children born in the US to, immigrant. Parents, of change immigration policy you remove, this healthy, outlook, for, the u.s.. Different. African, countries, different. Perspectives. Nigeria, massive. Population. Growth, as. With, Kenya impact, of HIV, having. This dramatic. Shadow, in. Many countries and, of, course particularly, South Africa, terribly, distorted. By hiv/aids, this is what Swarna with and without. Hiv/aids. The light what it would be with without. And, the dark with so, these things, can just wreck, development. Prospects, for country but SWANA in other, respects, are well managed economy. With, lots of resource. Diamonds. But. Wrecked by. Failure to, manage this migration. Becomes, a bigger and bigger part of the development, story now, migration, has always been the way that countries.
Have, Dealt with development, the reason we all here. Is. Because a development if not first second. Or third generation it's, always been their way that people escaped poverty famine. Disease and, war a third, of Island migration, third of Scandinavia, migration third of Italy migrated, but. As that option, becomes closed off to, people and the, number of countries, increase, there's a hundred more countries, in the world over the last hundred years. The. Potential. For, migration, is doing. What has always served humanity. To do which. Is give people opportunity. To get away from trouble and find, new, Patel. That. Option is being closed off and so development, has, removed, from a central, place. This. Absolutely, key potential. Which is migration, now migration, is good not and if people that migrate but. Also for the societies they're leaving because of remittances, going back and the societies, they're going to because. Of what they contribute, to those societies. None of our societies, in the rich countries, would be anything like what, they are indeed I argue, that all, great civilizations have, depended, on massive, inflows, of immigrants. So. Migrants. Are exceptional, people, and. Migration shaped, our world and will define our future, in. The, way that it benefits and this is a previous, book and what the very short introduction does, which. Is partly, why I was able to do it is it draws on all my books on globalization, migration. Financial, flows and, other. Things, the. Work forces of the world changed, dramatically, in Africa. Becomes. By far the most significant. Source, of labor and a key question for Africa, is cannot, fulfill, this, potential, that's both about education. Which. Is there's a very positive story to be told illiteracy, declining, but it's also about the, fact that it's 54, different fragmented. Countries, and so, it's political future is important, when. One looks at the economic, prospects, of countries, the, startling, thing is how important, development, has become, developing. Countries, what we used to call developing, countries and that term itself, is. Subject. To revision as and, I have a little graph in a table. In the book which shows how these terms keep changing, is they rightly should but. That these in what some call emerging, markets, now, account for two-thirds of global growth without them we would be in a much worse State in the UK or the u.s. they are lifting, global growth they are the engine of global growth they also the stabilizers. Of global growth because. There. Are many more growth engines in other words when the US gets our cold the rest of the world no longer gets human because, of China because of India because, of other, countries, so. We should thank them for, their development success and there our development. Now, and more, on their development which. Is a great irony of history. Many. Countries. That we think of as developing, countries will overtake, us in, per capita terms, many. Countries, become richer than the UK. And. Of course, when. You compound, these growth rates you have to divide the, total income growth, by the population, which is why China goes above. $30,000. Per capita, and India, doesn't go above ten and Africa. Above five but this is very sensitive, to what assumptions, one makes not only on economic, growth but on population. Growth. How. These population. Dynamics. Transfer. Into income, levels matters. Desperately. And are the key uncertainties. Of some very big countries, in Africa. Where, you see this difference in per capita and, in. Average. Income levels, now. This. Also of course doesn't talk about the inequalities. That are behind it and that, goes back to this question of we, move towards, a world in where, the, only countries, that are on average desperately. Poor are the, countries, that are failed States in some respects, or in conflict and then. Within the rich the middle-income countries, how, does one tackle. These distributional.
Questions. The. Middle class. Defined, as $10 per day explodes. Around. The world in its. Size four. Point, nine. Billion. Middle-class. Consumers by 2030, these are the people buying your products, and going, online. And. In. This the. Center, of gravity is firmly. Towards. Asia, now, a key question, is this, adding up question, this. Is another book I've done can. Is, there enough for everyone, in the world to, develop what, about the resource constraints. Is the planet full. Our, planet, and here. I'll come, back to a few observations but, I think we have to say it, depends, it, depends, partly, on what happens with technology. But, also depends, on behave you in the rich countries as well as in the developing countries New York State consumes. More antibiotics, than, the whole of sub-saharan. Africa, New, York State consumes, more energy than, the whole of sub-saharan. Africa, so it's all about numbers, it's, about consumption. Patterns, and, behavior. That really determines one's outlook, as, how. Are we going to manage resources, going, forward now. You know, more than most about. Revolutionary. Technologies, and I hope one thing you've learnt is, that you cannot predict the future. In. This you even smarter, than all the great minds, that have ever tried before. But. We know that there are some predictable, 's like. Moore's Law and the Oxford Martin School which I was the director of for 10 years we have over 50 people working on aspects, of this we, think it's going to continue for about the next 20 years so we have a hundred thousand, two million times the power and, so, revolutionary. Technologies, like nano medicine this is from my nano lab. Or. Stem cells from our stem cell lab that we created as a heart cell, or. Genetic, manipulation. Become. A real possibility and, a key question, I think for, all. Of us is, how. Will. These technologies, play through the world and will they widen, inequalities, or narrow, inequalities. Will, these extraordinary. Technologies. Like gene therapy, the, back mouse a wild mouse the front mouse of, modified. Mouse going for 10 times the time. Will. These technologies. Increase. And we'll only the rich have them will only be available in, rich countries. These. Are key questions because. These technologies, are, advancing. At, super. Juban super. Exponential. Speed and so. One of the key questions for developing. Countries is. Do they understand what's going on and. Have. They got the capabilities, of using, them to. Address. Development, questions now I'm very, concerned, about this because I think in the UK for example, we don't really understand, the government, isn't, really on top of technological. Change sohow. Or in the US for that matter so, how do we expect a poor African country to, be on top of it a. Risk. Is a whole nother question risk. Is very asymmetric. Remember. That. Risk. Disproportionately. Impacts, on poor people in poorer countries rich, people can bind themselves out of trouble largely. We. See the rapid growth in the u.s. in cities, like Phoenix and, Las, Vegas which, is quite an interesting story seeing, they're both in the middle of the desert, just. Pipe, deeper, from, longer, turn. The aircon on and, survive. In the desert no, problem in fact not survive thrive, these are rapidly, growing cities, the. Same options are obviously not open to people living in the Sahel. So. This, disproportionate, impact. Leads. To a greater, need for anyone, that cares about development. To, manage risk. Climate. Change pandemics. Everything. Financial. Crises impact. On the poor and poor. Countries much more than they impact, on the rich and that's one of the great challenges going, forward is, how. To manage risk, and to. Ensure that we mitigate, the risks that come out of interconnectivity. These, are not new but. Their pace and scale is different the swine flu the starts in Mexico cities in 130, countries in 30. Days that's new and so. The preparedness, of countries, to this we've modeled and shown it replicates, airline traffic and, preparing. Countries for the cyber vulnerabilities can. Hackers. Closed down a country, for. Malicious, governments, or other forces destroy. Their systems, their financial, systems numbers and how do we help them become. Resilient, to that because these. Are very very big challenges, as the. Cyber becomes the new nervous, system of the world and as. We move into the International things this becomes more, important, another, great challenge of the future is how.
Do We think, about. Technology. And, jobs going forward, now. You, might be familiar with the work that I. Developed. With colleagues in Oxford, which, suggests, that about 47%. Of, us jobs are vulnerable to machine intelligence and AI over. The next 20. To 30 years about, 40 percent of European jobs and, the. Proportions, are much higher for. Developing, countries why. Is this because. We believe that anything that's repetitive and rules-based that doesn't require dexterity. Or empathy is likely to be disintermediated. By, AI over. The coming decades, so. If you take away the middle rungs of the development, ladder those. Middle rungs which are repetitive, tasks, be, they in manufacturing. Or be, they in call centers, or back offices, and, replace. Them with AI, what. Is the development, model, that. For countries, what. Are. We going to be replacing this with and how can these people escape poverty. In. That world of AI will, they have the skills, can. We just say they will become creative and do things that machine's cannot do and if we at the same time closing, the migration, gates to. Them, do. We have. A new challenge, and of course this is coinciding with many other things like, 3d printing, this is footage, after them that spacex titanium. Printing, so. Reshoring, of production, of. Course. The politics, of nationalism, and xenophobia feeding. Into this is very. Very, scary so. As we think about this relationship, this interconnectivity. Is, very very important, so, too are these issues of the Commons Nature has no price we, know that, no matter how much the rhino horn is worth they, won't reproduce more and that's true all natural, systems and. They become increasingly. Important. For, developing. Countries, who. Depend, on these natural resources of course, governments sharing, these resources, aren't good this is the aral sea and so, climate change really matters, and it. Particularly matters to poor people in poorer places and that's why stopping, climate change will slowing. Its, rate. Of increase, is, dramatically, important, you, know we might enjoy the fact that we've had said the hottest may bank, holiday on. Kord in the UK but. This is extremely, worrying for developing. Countries particularly. We. Have to come up with a model that allows people to climb the development, curve and, have. Energy forms, which are different and we, have to appreciate, the. Vulnerabilities. Particularly. In agriculture, but not only the, most rapidly, growing cities, in developing, countries, our seafront. Cities, that's. Where, 80% of, the growth of dynamism, is on these, coastal, cities, so. Climate, change dramatically, affects crops, now. The global governance system is totally unfitted for 21st century purpose. Rearranging. The furniture and. Countries. Are like individual. Cabins, on an ocean liner with no captain on the deck like so many aspects, of development, this, is an. Unintended negative, of. A very good thing we, can celebrate the fact that the world is no longer run by 12 white men smoking cigars, in, a room. In. The latest, climate change in negotiations. There were 35,000. Participants, and the process, was run by a, woman Loren's to be honest so. That's wonderful at the, same time in. This time of handover, there's, lack of leadership so. What international. Information, systems, do is important, the best institutions. In the best place is the best expert, systems not, only those in finance, in, our central banks Treasuries IMF, and others have proved themselves totally. Incapable. And, so, when we see this rejection, of experts, and authority we need to understand, it's real with. Us experts, I'm, talking about myself, have. Let the, system down by, allowing, a financial, crisis, to happen which, is particularly, affected, poor, people and vulnerable, people. Life. Expectancy. And other. Attributes. Or demands are not improving, in many parts, of the, advanced, economies, let, alone in the poor country so these distribution questions.
Are More, and more, important. However. The. Idea that you can withdraw from. This is profoundly. Misguided. There's no wall high enough that. Will keep our climate, change a pandemic, a cyberattack. Or. Any of the real threats to our futures, but what these high walls to, keep out is. The. Technologies, the. Ideas, the. People. The. Products, the services that, we need. To. Navigate and. Thrive. In the future and of course what these high walls mostly, keep out is, our. Ability, to cooperate which, is absolutely, central so I prefer. The concept, of entanglement to. Globalization. Meaning entangled, world we're. In a world in which everything, that we do. Matters. For others and what they do matters. For us and that's. Why development, in the, end is about being more connected, but, not being more vulnerable in feeling. An empathy. With people, around the world and of course your technologies. Allow. Us to do that to share an experience with, people. Around the world in. A, way which, was just unimaginable in, the past but. Whether that leads to a new learning of our interconnectedness, and helps. Us to understand, that actually we are the development, agencies, development. Is not about someone. Else somewhere. Else developments. About us it's, what we do every minute, of our lives the choices we, make the, things that we consume, the, way we. Develop products, and services, and a. Consciousness, that it's. These kids in the end that, will be as entwined, with our future as, our. Neighbors, next, door, so. This is an ambitious little book it, tries, to do. The past present, and future of globalization. In 40 thousand words I hope you. Find, it really if there's any word in it you don't understand, send, me an email we'll, connect me on Twitter because it's designed for, non specialists, but if you find it dump is dumbed down then. Also send me a message. And say, I haven't, challenged, you enough because it wants to strike that balance between, inviting.
People Into the conversation but. Also giving them a sense of. The challenges and. That's what. If it does I'll, be happy to have achieved thank you. We've. Got time for a few questions so. Gonna put your hands up and I'll come to you with the mic I'll, kick us off if you want to think of something to us so. I was thinking, you alluded, to education. And the importance of education, and. I was just thinking. About how. You. You've. Got well leaders who reject experts, you've got well leaders who don't seem to have a good grasp on human, history, what. Impact, does that have your. More importantly what should leaders. Know what what. Understand should they have what's gone before them and then, how does that trickle down when you're looking at educating the future generations, yeah. The. Only leader, that I've been bowled. Over by in my life and I've met many, leaders. Was. Nelson Mandela, and. It it was because what, he had above all was. An ability to listen and to. Learn and to, be curious. No. Leader. No. Matter how powerful or intelligent. Or whatever could, possibly be on top of everything that's going on in the world, and. Possibly, understand, what, they need to know and it's. That ability to ask the right questions, and listen but also change your mind in. A Nelson Mandela, I, basically. Become, by the time he had come out of prison a pretty. Heavy. Socialist. I. Mean, the, prevailing. Position, of his party was nationalization, of the, minds of the banks, and. A whole lot of policies, which. Not. Only did he not see. Through everybody abandoned, pretty quickly on coming out because, he was able, to, interrogate, the facts, and learn and change his mind and not at all be. Ashamed. Or. That. That changing, your mind is somehow a sign of weakness which. Our leaders seem to. Think you, know they basically want to be Nobles in a world where no rule is impossible, the, other thing is of course to be slightly more humble there's no leader, no country. Be, at the u.s. or China that. Can shape their future anymore, and that's, because we're in an entangled, world what, happens in other places is as likely to shape the futures of their citizens. As. And. That, attribution. Problem. The. Ability to stand up and say vote, for me not that I will guarantee you a job or I will guarantee your future because that's definitely a lie. But. Vote for me because I will do, my best, to. Work with others to. Do. That is. A more honest thing we seem to not have that capability, this. Huge. Nationalism. And. I. Think. What's. So interesting to, me about macron. Is. Not only that he used new technology in. The same way that this extreme right-wing instream left-wing, did to disintermediate. Authority in traditional political parties but he, didn't run a program in ization pro-europe, ticket which is in. France not the most popular winning. Strategy, I don't think his opinion. Pollsters, would have told him be, Pro globalization, that's where they could come a French president, but. He did it because every strength of his conviction, he took 70% of the French population with, him. So. That ability to, to. Lead. Because, you are able, to make a convincing, argument around, the case is something, our leaders don't seem to be able to have in a positive, way in an optimistic way. Hi. And thanks oh that's really really interesting I'll definitely get hold of the book and just. I'll have to change my google, thankfully. I. Had, two young children and sometimes. You, know this or the future worries me a little bit pessimistic bit. Gloomy that type yeah what, would be your advice for me as a parent in terms of how they may take sort of or how I may help them take ownership of their own futures. Nothing careers when, I discussed this a little bit in in this book but I also discussed, it in explicitly. In age of discovery in the concluding chapter this, or advice for different groups. My. Own sense is. What. You'll need but particular young people remember their life expectancies. Will be over a hundred, in. A world that's changing more, rapidly so, we cannot possibly predict, what they're going to be encountering in the, future. What. Skills they'll need or, anything like that I think, what you need to be able to do is, have a curiosity, have. An interest. In learning and relearning. Taking. Off on new ideas a an. Openness. To people and, different. Diversity. In all its forms and a, flexibility. To change your mind and to film. Welcoming. Of new ideas and people, and. A resilience, as, well because, they're gonna be tough. Times ahead, there's a lot of systemic risk in the system and. That. Psychological. Ability, to bounce back and have, an inner core which. Sustains, you I think will be important. For people and. That's based on things.
Like Values on, a, common humanity on, ethical. Principles, on family, on. Principles. Like that which are very difficult to teach as a, professor at Oxford I often get asked the question by. Aspiring. Parents. Not. So much the kids but the parents shouldn't. You know should my kid do maths or should they do humanities. For the future or whatever what what subject, is future-proof, and my. View on that is that there's no subject that's future because computers are pretty good at maths. So. But. You need math to program them so you know for the time being maths is a good subject or. Computer, science and but I'm not sure we'll be in a machine learning world in 20 years time and. But. What we really need as well as ethical, and humanity's understanding of history etc and that's what Age of Discovery tries, to convey, is. If. You're asked to Vinci that question. He. Would have looked at you in total. Amazement, and I mean he wouldn't understand what the concept was what, discipline, was he or. Adam. Smith for that matter. Where. Liam is this idea of disparately son is is a new idea and, it's. Increasingly, fragmented and is a dangerous, idea now. You have to be expert, in one subject and spare is, growing so. You have to focus more on one subject I don't believe that we can just be master of everything at, the same time it requires an understanding, of that, silo. That you're in you. Need a t-shape, you need to be able to spread and understand, different ideas, if you want to survive in the future and. So both are necessary and you might need to create a different vertical. Over. Time as the, needed verticals, change but the horizontal, will not change that'll. Be your stabilizer, I. Was. Just wondering if you've looked at term where. The. Donner stops, and kind of general, well-being kicks. In or is. That a luxury that's just afforded, to the. UK or the US yeah, no it's, well. You, know until about. $20,000. Per capita, or maybe that's depending, on sorry $15,000. Per capita you, in a world where you need more money in order to be able to basically, have. Enough. Food. To. Pay for health and education but, over that the, mud you you know the, the improvements. Are not great. There's. A big, issue about debt, which. Is why the, rich countries have to keep growing because they've got so much debt they have to repay it and. The big issues on distribution, if. One. Percent of the population is capturing 80 percent, of the wealth you know the number of people in the world that could run double-decker, bus of half think half the wealth of the world I've. Over three billion people as well that, matters in. Terms of whether you think how much money do you need so these average, per capita numbers. Don't mean very much to, someone who's, poor in the, you know in the middle of the UK, will or the US, and. Desperately, in debt and about to be evicted from their house because they can't pay the rent and they don't have a job tell. Them that they don't need, more jobs, in the country so, distribution, really matters. But. I do believe, that we should, see as a medium-term, goal. Basically. Well-being. Sustainability. And other, things we don't need. Beyond average wealthier. In. The UK for. Example or. In the US the, promised distribution. And. It's also of course the consumption, bundle, the u.s. is already in the UK consuming, too much much, too much carbon fuel much, too much, other. Non sustainable. Products. So, we have to change our mix in, the process, as, well. Well-being. Is an important concept I mean we economist are very crude they always fall back on income. And. That's because there's no other broadly comparable measure. And. Well-being, concepts. Are particularly, slippery so. You can ask people how, do you feel that's, you. Know a typical well-being, Happiness index. Very. Weird results. You get. You. Can you, can look, at other measures like suicide, depression. Alcoholism, sorrow, as as indicators. Of how happy societies. Are not or groups within society. But. Then you also do get cultural, differences, like the. That. Shape, that so, I, think, we need to move to much broader sustainability, well-being. Types of dashboards. For our society, where we talk about all the things that we want to achieve, and. Achievement. Thank. You for painting. You.