Weekly Forex Forecast (23/08/21) EurUsd / XauUsd / Bitcoin / SPX / 20 Markets [HD]
![Weekly Forex Forecast (23/08/21) EurUsd / XauUsd / Bitcoin / SPX / 20 Markets [HD] Weekly Forex Forecast (23/08/21) EurUsd / XauUsd / Bitcoin / SPX / 20 Markets [HD]](/pic/weekly_forex_forecast_23-08-21_eurusd_-_xauusd_-_bitcoin_-_spx_-_20_markets_hd_/SFhVelV1TkwtS00_.jpeg)
hey traders it's john fortune here this week's weekly forex forecast i hope you're having a great weekend let's kick off with the dxy as we always do in last week's weekly forex forecast video i highlighted the fact i was looking for a rally into the 93 42 and this correction or this pullback in the dxy should be viewed as correction further of answers to the upside last week we did take out the targets at the 93-42 this was a nice move in the dxy last week now last week was an interesting week because alongside this rally in the dxy we also had a clear flight safety in the japanese yen in the swiss franc as we're going to see when we go through this video and this could be an early warning sign for the stock market we may start to see a correction and start seeing stock market pulling back and when we look at stocks later in the video you will also see we're going to look at the russell which is more sensitive to the business cycle than a number of the other stock indices and that also alongside the moves we saw last week in the currency markets may be pointing to a near-term correction and offering up some warning signs of stocks going into next week so very simply put going into next week in terms of the dxy any correction in this market we're quite close to the target so to get good risk to reward setups in dxy pairs what i would like to see is any deeper correction in this market to next week is once again going to be viewed as an opportunity to start to look for bullish breakouts up towards the next care resistance the upside the target set at the 93 76 and if we break through here we're going to be looking up towards target 2 and the 94 150. now what this means is going into next week i do once again favor dollar strength positions and as i said before it's not just dollar strength positions it's risk off setups which will include japanese yen strength setups and also swiss franc strength setups going into next week as well so in short i'll go into next week with the bullish bias on the dxy and also other risk off currencies next week next is EURUSD now last week in EURUSD i highlighted the fact that this pullback here was viewed as a near-term correction for a decline to the downside we took out the target at the one point one seventy zero fifty so a really nice move in EURUSD to the downside last week going into this week i am once again bearish on this market and any pullback in this market is going to be viewed once again as an opportunity to look for bearish reversals down to the next key of support to the downside the target set at the 1.1651 next is AUDUSD now i have recently been trying to impress on you guys that the australian dollar and the canadian dollar are the two currencies you should be focused on looking for those short setups and after a couple of weeks of moving sideways we did finally have big sell-offs to the downside in AUDUSD and we also saw the canadian dollar collapsing last week as well after a couple of weeks of moving sideways so we had really nice moves in these markets in AUDUSD we took out both targets to the downside and we made our way all the way towards the third target here which we stopped just short of very simply put going into this week i am still bearish on this market and looking for short opportunities once again any correction in this market will be viewed once again as an opportunity to look for bearish reversals just bear in mind because we had such a strong sell-off sometimes you can get deep corrections for a week or so so patience may be required but any pullback in this market once again is simply viewed as another opportunity to look for bearish reversals and bearish breakouts in this market down towards the next key of support to the downside the target set at the 0.7096 now because we're very close we may come down and take out this target first and then correct if that's the case we'll be looking down towards target two at the zero point seven zero three eighty next is NZDUSD now NZDUSD was left out of last week's weekly forex forecast video because relative to a number of the other currencies it had been strengthening recently and this was in the run-up to the interest rate decision out of new zealand last week where the rbnz were expected to raise interest rates by 0.25 basis points from 0.25 to 50 basis points 0.50 and on anticipation of this the new zealand dollar was actually holding quite firm
relative to a number of the other currencies which i preferred to look to short instead like the aussie like the canadian dollar last week the rbnz failed to raise interest rates and actually held at 0.25 basis points and as a result we saw this decline to the downside and alongside a stronger dollar this sets up new zealand pairs and NZDUSD especially for further moves to the downside next week and i really think these are markets to keep an eye on going into next week so in terms of NZDUSD we are very close to the target now any pullback in this area gives us the opportunity to look for those risk reward setups down towards the next key of support to the downside the target set 0.6802 and similar to the other charts we've looked at if we bounce and take out this target first and then correct we'll be looking down towards target 2 in this market 0.6725 next is GBPUSD now last week we're looking for a sell-off to the downside in this market and we took out both targets and then some we had a really big sell-off impound dollar last week going into this week i am focused on GBPUSD to the downside once again and i do prefer shorts in this market any pullback is going to simply be viewed once again as an opportunity to look for bearish reversals down to the next key of support to the downside the target set at the 1.3479
next is crude oil now in previous weekly forex forecast videos i highlighted the fact that crude oil was selling off to the downside and that the canadian dollar had yet to catch up with this sell-off we did highlight this move to the downside also this move to the downside was highlighted previously to look for shorts in this area and last week we had a pullback and again a really nice sell-off to the downside taking out the first target and almost taking out the second target at 61.39 very simply put going into next week i am once again still looking for short setups in crude oil any pullback in this market will be viewed as another opportunity to look for bearish reversals and bearish setups down towards the next key of support to the downside the target set at the 61.39 and because we're very close again if we take out this target first and bounce i'm going to be looking down towards the second target to the downside here at 57.25 next is USDCAD now with a stronger dollar and a weaker crude oil USDCAD to the upside is something we've been looking at and in last week's weekly forex forecast video i highlighted us dollar cad as one to watch to the upside why because not only had we not yet caught up with that dynamic of a stronger dollar and a weaker crude oil in USDCAD we've just been correcting last week we also formed this inverse head and shoulders that is a bullish reversal pattern and once this pattern broke last week we saw that major rally in USDCAD to the upside taking out both targets in this case very simply put going into this week i am still bullish on us dollar cad for anybody not involved from last week what we need to see is we need to start to see a pullback and very similar to what we looked at in AUDUSD because we have such a steep move here it may be the case that we get a deeper pullback and the market corrects for a week or so so patience may be required in this market as well but any pullback in this market once again is going to be viewed as an opportunity to start to look for bullish entries once again up towards the next key of resistance the upside the target set at the 1.2972
the next cad pair i like is CADCHF, CADCHF is a market in previous weekly forex forecast although not last week that we've been highlighting for a move to the downside we had a really big sell-off just as we saw in USDCAD to the upside CADJPY to the downside as the canadian dollar finally rolled over catching up with that decline in crude oil pricing and as a result going into this week this is also another good market to keep an eye on any pullback in this market we've already started to pull back so any deeper correction is simply going to be viewed as an opportunity as a correction and an opportunity to start to look for bearish reversals once again down to the next key of support to the downside in the target set and the 0.7061 and the final cad pair i like this week is CADJPY now in last week's video i highlighted the fact that CADJPY actually broke higher and it broke above the line in the sand and started to reverse back down below it and despite this break higher i noted that CADJPY was still bearish we should still be looking for short positions i had a couple of short positions in this market last week and this did turn out to be a false breakout as canadian dollar vis-a-vis not just the japanese yen but also the us dollar the swiss franc etc did catch up with the sell-off recently in crude oil and we had a fantastic move to the downside taking out both targets in this market very simply put going into this week i'm once again looking for short setups in this market any pullback and the deeper the better as always any pullback is simply going to be viewed as a near-term correction and an opportunity to look for bearish reversals down to the next key of support the downside the target set at the 83.61 if you want to be more conservative you can look at previous lows but the 8361 is the next key of support to the downside next is AUDJPY now this is also a market i've been highlighting four short positions it was another market i had short last week up from this area and this is because the aussie and the cad as i previously noted were two of the weakest currencies and vis-a-vis the risk-off currencies will likely sell off the hardest we had a huge sell-off in the australian dollar as well alongside the canadian dollar which we saw last week and we took out both targets and then some this was a huge move in AUDJPY last week very simply put any pullback this week in this market is viewed once again as an opportunity to look for bearish reversals and with such a big sell-off as i said earlier in the video it may take a little bit of time to correct but any correction is still viewed as an opportunity to just simply look for bearish entries down to the next care supports the downside in the target set and 77.57 and the final yen pair i like going into next week is NZDJPY now we highlighted earlier in the video how the rbnz failed to raise interest rates last week this saw the new zealand dollar rolling over breaking out of the near-term correction that a lot of the new zealand pairs had been in and as a result especially paid against the risk-off currencies going into next week i really do like new zealand shorts so going into next week any pullback in this market is simply viewed as an opportunity to start to look for bearish reversals down to the next gear supports downside the target set and the 73.79 the next focus pair i like is AUDCHF now bear in mind all of the currencies we've looked at so far look at these big risk-off deflationary type moves we've seen in these currencies they're all uniformed in a way and in fact going into next week there's going to be plenty of opportunities the key if you're trading the forex markets will be not to over trade not to take too much risk because all of the markets here are setting up very nicely but going into next week any pullback in this market is simply going to be viewed once again as an opportunity to look for short positions in AUDCHF i'm going to be looking down towards the next key of support to the downside the target set at 0.6507 and if we break through here or if we bounce from this target because we are very close before correcting i'm going to be looking down towards target 2 at 0.6455
and the final forex market i like before moving on to stocks going into next week is the NZDCHF again the same as the other new zealand pairs we saw new zealand rolling over to the downside with that failure to raise interest rates as anticipated last week by the central bank of new zealand and so very simply put going into this week any pullback in this market will be viewed as a great opportunity to start to look for bearish setups in NZDCHF down to the next care supports the downside in the target set at 0.6233 and because we're very close here once again for some reason we're very very close to the targets in a number of these markets but if we take out this target first and then start to bounce we're going to be looking down towards target 2 four 0.6140 next is the spx now i've previously been bullish on stocks on the spx and if we look at this chart it is not technically bearish just yet however something interesting to note last week was we did come down and we tested took out this low tested this level and we are in a position where we could be going one of two ways in the spx either continue to the upside or starting to form a right shoulder and this kind of setup tends to occur once you break previous loads over in this area like this so what's interesting is with this setup going into next week and with stocks and the spx as they currently stand although the stock market is not yet technically bearish what we're looking at in the flight safety the risk-off moves in the currency markets also seeing commodities coming down we saw crude oil coming down which is in and of itself deflationary we have to ask the question going into next week are we going to see a break lower in stocks and are we going to start to see a correction in the stock market if we're going to get that the correction will likely gather pace below a break of this low we come down below the line in the sand at the 437 237 and a break of this low would likely trigger some stop losses and that's where you would see some capitulation if we were going to get a correction now alongside the risk-off moves in the currency markets the reduction in the prices of commodities like crude oil light copper another warning sign for stocks going into next week is the russell now the russell as an index is more sensitive to the business cycle as it's mainly made up of small cap stocks and the smaller businesses tend to be more sensitive to the business cycle and as a result it can in and of itself lead other indices so if we look back for example at the peak of the spx in the 19th of february 2020 as the spx was making new highs on the 19th of february what was the russell doing it was making a lower high it was forming a right shoulder and if we go and have a look at the russell now it also looks to have made a lower high and to be coming down from here so when you combine what we're seeing in the currency markets in the commodity markets and also here in the russell you have to ask the question are we going to see a correction near term in the stock market in the spx and the other indices well depending on how you're trading stocks if you are long only it may be a good time to seek some protection some hedging into your portfolio and if you're somebody who likes to just trade the dips or buy the dips to the upside in the indices with naked positions although it does carry a lot of risk with it then it may be the case that next week you just sit those markets out and you wait and see what transpires next week before starting to buy any more dips or going long in the stock market so again to summarize what i'm saying here is the stock market itself should be viewed essentially as being neutral could go either way but there are warning signs from the currency markets from the commodities and possibly the russell which we just looked at that we may be getting a near-term correction in stocks so i'm not suggesting to go out and short stocks next week and again depending on how you trade the stock market will depend on how you utilize that information going into next week next is the nasdaq now i also go into next week with a neutral bias on the nasdaq i have been bullish all the way up and we've been grinding to the upside but because of everything we've just discussed there are warning signs in this market the real risk of liquidation or sell-off in this market would come on a break down below the low here the line in the sand of the one four seven nine 189 if we start to break here we could see stop losses being triggered so whether you're trading these outright or as part of a portfolio these are all things to consider going into next week so the market itself is not yet bearish it's still technically bullish but my outlook is neutral because of everything we discussed in the spx part of this video next is the dow jones and again i have a neutral bias going into next week on the dow jones you can see the head and shoulders or potential head and shoulders developing head and shoulders is slightly more pronounced here with the breakdown below this low previously and if we fail to actually make a new high here and then we break this low that is where the head and shoulders will be confirmed the break below the 34 764.82 would be where there is a greater risk of liquidation and a sell-off which could initiate a correction in the stock market in this case in the dow jones so in order for me to be bullish once again what i would like to see in the stock market is i'd like to see a rally to new highs and preferably a break above previous highs with momentum that would be good to set up dip buying further advances to the upside in these markets so going into next week once again there are warning signs for the stock markets patience and risk management is going to be something to consider going into next week and the final stock market we're going to look at is the nifty now unlike the us indices we just looked at the nifty is actually technically stretched to the upside this is a ball flag set up we're pulling back to test stair step previous highs over here and this would be an area to start to look for further advances to the upside in the nifty up towards the next target set and the 16 904.20 however just bear in mind everything we discussed in the us indices because if we do get a correction in u.s equities this can
spill over into the nifty as well next is XAUUSD now last week we discussed the flash crash we saw in XAUUSD to the downside we were positioned for short positions before this flash crash and this is what tends to happen you tend to get flash crashes in the direction of the trend they rarely happen in the other direction which is why if you're following the train or you're trading in line with the trend you will not only avoid these kind of flash crashes but most of the time you will be positioned in that direction if you have a position you will actually be able to ride those in XAUUSD last week we pretty much did nothing and as a result the same analysis remains as of last week we started to roll over to the downside and any correction in this market is still currently viewed as an opportunity to look for bearish reversals down to the next kiev supports the downside of the target set the 17 39.33 next is XAGUSD now we were also looking for short positions in XAGUSD and we had the flash crash to the downside and after this we just started to correct very similar to gold because of how much momentum was in that flash crash we really spent last week not doing too much we did pull back and this pullback was viewed last week and you can see a mini head and shoulders here as an opportunity to start to look for bearish reversals we're starting to make our way towards the targets at the 22.60 so any pullback and any deep correction next week will be viewed once again as an opportunity to look for bearish reversals down to the 22.60 and
if we can break through here we're going to be looking down towards target 2 and 21.90 and last but not least we have bitcoin now bitcoin has actually been a really good performing market since we introduced it into the weekly forex forecast we had the crash to the downside which we saw we had the reversal higher and we've been taking out target after target and we are now making our way towards the 52.911 so very simply put you can see we have strong momentum to the upside what i'd like to see is a ball flag type pattern if we get a correction in this area that would be the opportunity for anybody not involved from previous weekly forecast videos any correction here would be an opportunity to start to look for bullish reversals up towards the next care resistance outside the target set and the 52 911 so that is it for me for this week guys as always i hope you enjoyed this video and if you did please let me know by liking sharing and subscribing a big thanks to everybody who does that on a regular basis and a big thank you to everybody who has subscribed to the channel so far i want to wish you all a fantastic weekend and i want to wish you all the best in your trading next week the only thing left to say is take care and don't forget to trade safely
2021-08-23 09:04