Weekly Forex Forecast (23/08/21) EurUsd / XauUsd / Bitcoin / SPX / 20 Markets [HD]

hey traders it's john fortune here this week's  weekly forex forecast i hope you're having a   great weekend let's kick off with the dxy as we  always do in last week's weekly forex forecast   video i highlighted the fact i was looking for  a rally into the 93 42 and this correction or   this pullback in the dxy should be viewed as  correction further of answers to the upside   last week we did take out the targets at the 93-42  this was a nice move in the dxy last week now last   week was an interesting week because alongside  this rally in the dxy we also had a clear flight   safety in the japanese yen in the swiss franc as  we're going to see when we go through this video   and this could be an early warning sign for the  stock market we may start to see a correction and   start seeing stock market pulling back and when  we look at stocks later in the video you will also   see we're going to look at the russell which is  more sensitive to the business cycle than a number   of the other stock indices and that also alongside  the moves we saw last week in the currency markets   may be pointing to a near-term correction  and offering up some warning signs of stocks   going into next week so very simply put  going into next week in terms of the dxy   any correction in this market we're quite close  to the target so to get good risk to reward setups   in dxy pairs what i would like to see is any  deeper correction in this market to next week   is once again going to be viewed as an opportunity  to start to look for bullish breakouts up towards   the next care resistance the upside the target set  at the 93 76 and if we break through here we're   going to be looking up towards target 2 and the 94  150. now what this means is going into next week   i do once again favor dollar strength positions  and as i said before it's not just dollar strength   positions it's risk off setups which will include  japanese yen strength setups and also swiss franc   strength setups going into next week as well so  in short i'll go into next week with the bullish   bias on the dxy and also other risk off currencies  next week next is EURUSD now last week in EURUSD   i highlighted the fact that this pullback here was  viewed as a near-term correction for a decline to   the downside we took out the target at the one  point one seventy zero fifty so a really nice   move in EURUSD to the downside last week going  into this week i am once again bearish on this   market and any pullback in this market is going to  be viewed once again as an opportunity to look for   bearish reversals down to the next key of support  to the downside the target set at the 1.1651 next is AUDUSD now i have recently been trying  to impress on you guys that the australian dollar   and the canadian dollar are the two currencies  you should be focused on looking for those short   setups and after a couple of weeks of moving  sideways we did finally have big sell-offs   to the downside in AUDUSD and we also saw the  canadian dollar collapsing last week as well   after a couple of weeks of moving sideways  so we had really nice moves in these markets   in AUDUSD we took out both targets to the downside  and we made our way all the way towards the third   target here which we stopped just short of very  simply put going into this week i am still bearish   on this market and looking for short opportunities  once again any correction in this market will be   viewed once again as an opportunity to look for  bearish reversals just bear in mind because we   had such a strong sell-off sometimes you  can get deep corrections for a week or so   so patience may be required but any pullback  in this market once again is simply viewed   as another opportunity to look for bearish  reversals and bearish breakouts in this market   down towards the next key of support to the  downside the target set at the 0.7096 now   because we're very close we may come down and take  out this target first and then correct if that's   the case we'll be looking down towards target  two at the zero point seven zero three eighty   next is NZDUSD now NZDUSD was left out of  last week's weekly forex forecast video   because relative to a number of the other  currencies it had been strengthening recently   and this was in the run-up to the interest  rate decision out of new zealand last week   where the rbnz were expected to raise interest  rates by 0.25 basis points from 0.25 to 50 basis   points 0.50 and on anticipation of this the new  zealand dollar was actually holding quite firm  

relative to a number of the other currencies which  i preferred to look to short instead like the   aussie like the canadian dollar last week the rbnz  failed to raise interest rates and actually held   at 0.25 basis points and as a result we saw this  decline to the downside and alongside a stronger   dollar this sets up new zealand pairs and NZDUSD  especially for further moves to the downside next   week and i really think these are markets to  keep an eye on going into next week so in terms   of NZDUSD we are very close to the target now any  pullback in this area gives us the opportunity to   look for those risk reward setups down towards the  next key of support to the downside the target set   0.6802 and similar to the other charts we've  looked at if we bounce and take out this   target first and then correct we'll be looking  down towards target 2 in this market 0.6725 next is GBPUSD now last week we're looking for  a sell-off to the downside in this market and   we took out both targets and then some we had  a really big sell-off impound dollar last week   going into this week i am focused on GBPUSD to  the downside once again and i do prefer shorts   in this market any pullback is going to simply be  viewed once again as an opportunity to look for   bearish reversals down to the next key of support  to the downside the target set at the 1.3479

next is crude oil now in previous weekly forex  forecast videos i highlighted the fact that   crude oil was selling off to the downside and  that the canadian dollar had yet to catch up   with this sell-off we did highlight this move to  the downside also this move to the downside was   highlighted previously to look for shorts in this  area and last week we had a pullback and again   a really nice sell-off to the downside taking  out the first target and almost taking out the   second target at 61.39 very simply put going into  next week i am once again still looking for short   setups in crude oil any pullback in this market  will be viewed as another opportunity to look for   bearish reversals and bearish setups down towards  the next key of support to the downside the target   set at the 61.39 and because we're very close  again if we take out this target first and bounce   i'm going to be looking down towards the  second target to the downside here at 57.25 next is USDCAD now with a stronger dollar  and a weaker crude oil USDCAD to the upside   is something we've been looking at and in last  week's weekly forex forecast video i highlighted   us dollar cad as one to watch to the upside why  because not only had we not yet caught up with   that dynamic of a stronger dollar and a weaker  crude oil in USDCAD we've just been correcting   last week we also formed this inverse head  and shoulders that is a bullish reversal   pattern and once this pattern broke last week  we saw that major rally in USDCAD to the upside   taking out both targets in this case very simply  put going into this week i am still bullish on us   dollar cad for anybody not involved from last week  what we need to see is we need to start to see a   pullback and very similar to what we looked at  in AUDUSD because we have such a steep move here   it may be the case that we get a deeper  pullback and the market corrects for a   week or so so patience may be required in this  market as well but any pullback in this market   once again is going to be viewed as an opportunity  to start to look for bullish entries once again   up towards the next key of resistance  the upside the target set at the 1.2972

the next cad pair i like is CADCHF, CADCHF is a  market in previous weekly forex forecast although   not last week that we've been highlighting for a  move to the downside we had a really big sell-off   just as we saw in USDCAD to the upside CADJPY to  the downside as the canadian dollar finally rolled   over catching up with that decline in crude oil  pricing and as a result going into this week this   is also another good market to keep an eye on any  pullback in this market we've already started to   pull back so any deeper correction is simply going  to be viewed as an opportunity as a correction   and an opportunity to start to look  for bearish reversals once again   down to the next key of support to the  downside in the target set and the 0.7061 and the final cad pair i like this week is CADJPY  now in last week's video i highlighted the fact   that CADJPY actually broke higher and it broke  above the line in the sand and started to reverse   back down below it and despite this break higher  i noted that CADJPY was still bearish we should   still be looking for short positions i had a  couple of short positions in this market last week   and this did turn out to be a false breakout as  canadian dollar vis-a-vis not just the japanese   yen but also the us dollar the swiss franc  etc did catch up with the sell-off recently   in crude oil and we had a fantastic move to the  downside taking out both targets in this market   very simply put going into this week i'm once  again looking for short setups in this market   any pullback and the deeper the better as  always any pullback is simply going to be   viewed as a near-term correction and an  opportunity to look for bearish reversals   down to the next key of support the downside the  target set at the 83.61 if you want to be more   conservative you can look at previous lows but the  8361 is the next key of support to the downside   next is AUDJPY now this is also a market i've  been highlighting four short positions it was   another market i had short last week up from  this area and this is because the aussie and   the cad as i previously noted were two of the  weakest currencies and vis-a-vis the risk-off   currencies will likely sell off the hardest we had  a huge sell-off in the australian dollar as well   alongside the canadian dollar which we saw last  week and we took out both targets and then some   this was a huge move in AUDJPY last week very  simply put any pullback this week in this market   is viewed once again as an opportunity  to look for bearish reversals and with   such a big sell-off as i said earlier  in the video it may take a little bit   of time to correct but any correction is still  viewed as an opportunity to just simply look for   bearish entries down to the next care supports  the downside in the target set and 77.57 and the final yen pair i like  going into next week is NZDJPY   now we highlighted earlier in the video  how the rbnz failed to raise interest rates   last week this saw the new zealand dollar rolling  over breaking out of the near-term correction that   a lot of the new zealand pairs had been in  and as a result especially paid against the   risk-off currencies going into next week i  really do like new zealand shorts so going   into next week any pullback in this market is  simply viewed as an opportunity to start to look   for bearish reversals down to the next gear  supports downside the target set and the 73.79 the next focus pair i like is AUDCHF now bear in  mind all of the currencies we've looked at so far   look at these big risk-off deflationary type  moves we've seen in these currencies they're   all uniformed in a way and in fact going into next  week there's going to be plenty of opportunities   the key if you're trading the forex markets will  be not to over trade not to take too much risk   because all of the markets here are setting up  very nicely but going into next week any pullback   in this market is simply going to be viewed  once again as an opportunity to look for short   positions in AUDCHF i'm going to be looking down  towards the next key of support to the downside   the target set at 0.6507 and if we break through  here or if we bounce from this target because   we are very close before correcting i'm going  to be looking down towards target 2 at 0.6455

and the final forex market i like before moving  on to stocks going into next week is the NZDCHF   again the same as the other new zealand pairs  we saw new zealand rolling over to the downside   with that failure to raise interest rates as  anticipated last week by the central bank of   new zealand and so very simply put going into this  week any pullback in this market will be viewed as   a great opportunity to start to look for bearish  setups in NZDCHF down to the next care supports   the downside in the target set at 0.6233 and  because we're very close here once again for   some reason we're very very close to the targets  in a number of these markets but if we take   out this target first and then start to bounce  we're going to be looking down towards target 2 four 0.6140 next is the spx now i've previously been bullish  on stocks on the spx and if we look at this chart   it is not technically bearish just yet however  something interesting to note last week was we   did come down and we tested took out this low  tested this level and we are in a position   where we could be going one of two ways in the spx  either continue to the upside or starting to form   a right shoulder and this kind of setup tends  to occur once you break previous loads over in   this area like this so what's interesting is with  this setup going into next week and with stocks   and the spx as they currently stand although  the stock market is not yet technically bearish   what we're looking at in the flight safety  the risk-off moves in the currency markets   also seeing commodities coming down we saw  crude oil coming down which is in and of   itself deflationary we have to ask the question  going into next week are we going to see a break   lower in stocks and are we going to start to see  a correction in the stock market if we're going   to get that the correction will likely gather  pace below a break of this low we come down   below the line in the sand at the 437 237 and  a break of this low would likely trigger some   stop losses and that's where you would see some  capitulation if we were going to get a correction   now alongside the risk-off moves in the currency  markets the reduction in the prices of commodities   like crude oil light copper another warning sign  for stocks going into next week is the russell   now the russell as an index is more sensitive to  the business cycle as it's mainly made up of small   cap stocks and the smaller businesses tend to  be more sensitive to the business cycle and as a   result it can in and of itself lead other indices  so if we look back for example at the peak of the   spx in the 19th of february 2020 as the spx was  making new highs on the 19th of february what was   the russell doing it was making a lower high it  was forming a right shoulder and if we go and have   a look at the russell now it also looks to have  made a lower high and to be coming down from here   so when you combine what we're seeing in the  currency markets in the commodity markets and also   here in the russell you have to ask the question  are we going to see a correction near term in the   stock market in the spx and the other indices  well depending on how you're trading stocks   if you are long only it may be a good time to seek  some protection some hedging into your portfolio   and if you're somebody who likes to just trade the  dips or buy the dips to the upside in the indices   with naked positions although it does carry  a lot of risk with it then it may be the case   that next week you just sit those markets out  and you wait and see what transpires next week   before starting to buy any more dips or going  long in the stock market so again to summarize   what i'm saying here is the stock market itself  should be viewed essentially as being neutral   could go either way but there are warning signs  from the currency markets from the commodities   and possibly the russell which we just looked at  that we may be getting a near-term correction in   stocks so i'm not suggesting to go out and short  stocks next week and again depending on how you   trade the stock market will depend on how you  utilize that information going into next week   next is the nasdaq now i also go into next week  with a neutral bias on the nasdaq i have been   bullish all the way up and we've been grinding  to the upside but because of everything we've   just discussed there are warning signs in this  market the real risk of liquidation or sell-off   in this market would come on a break down  below the low here the line in the sand of   the one four seven nine 189 if we start to break  here we could see stop losses being triggered so   whether you're trading these outright or as part  of a portfolio these are all things to consider   going into next week so the market itself is  not yet bearish it's still technically bullish   but my outlook is neutral because of everything  we discussed in the spx part of this video   next is the dow jones and again i have a neutral  bias going into next week on the dow jones you   can see the head and shoulders or potential head  and shoulders developing head and shoulders is   slightly more pronounced here with the breakdown  below this low previously and if we fail   to actually make a new high here and then we break  this low that is where the head and shoulders will   be confirmed the break below the 34 764.82 would  be where there is a greater risk of liquidation   and a sell-off which could initiate a correction  in the stock market in this case in the dow jones   so in order for me to be bullish once again what i  would like to see in the stock market is i'd like   to see a rally to new highs and preferably  a break above previous highs with momentum   that would be good to set up dip buying further  advances to the upside in these markets so going   into next week once again there are warning  signs for the stock markets patience and risk   management is going to be something to consider  going into next week and the final stock market   we're going to look at is the nifty now unlike the  us indices we just looked at the nifty is actually   technically stretched to the upside this is a ball  flag set up we're pulling back to test stair step   previous highs over here and this would be an  area to start to look for further advances to   the upside in the nifty up towards the next target  set and the 16 904.20 however just bear in mind   everything we discussed in the us indices because  if we do get a correction in u.s equities this can  

spill over into the nifty as well next is XAUUSD  now last week we discussed the flash crash we saw   in XAUUSD to the downside we were positioned  for short positions before this flash crash   and this is what tends to happen you tend  to get flash crashes in the direction of the   trend they rarely happen in the other direction  which is why if you're following the train or   you're trading in line with the trend you will  not only avoid these kind of flash crashes but   most of the time you will be positioned in that  direction if you have a position you will actually   be able to ride those in XAUUSD last week we  pretty much did nothing and as a result the   same analysis remains as of last week we started  to roll over to the downside and any correction   in this market is still currently viewed as  an opportunity to look for bearish reversals   down to the next kiev supports the  downside of the target set the 17 39.33 next is XAGUSD now we were also looking for short  positions in XAGUSD and we had the flash crash to   the downside and after this we just started to  correct very similar to gold because of how much   momentum was in that flash crash we really spent  last week not doing too much we did pull back and   this pullback was viewed last week and  you can see a mini head and shoulders here   as an opportunity to start to look for bearish  reversals we're starting to make our way towards   the targets at the 22.60 so any pullback  and any deep correction next week will be   viewed once again as an opportunity to look  for bearish reversals down to the 22.60 and  

if we can break through here we're going to  be looking down towards target 2 and 21.90 and last but not least we have bitcoin now bitcoin  has actually been a really good performing market   since we introduced it into the weekly forex  forecast we had the crash to the downside which   we saw we had the reversal higher and we've  been taking out target after target and we   are now making our way towards the 52.911 so very  simply put you can see we have strong momentum to   the upside what i'd like to see is a ball flag  type pattern if we get a correction in this area   that would be the opportunity for anybody not  involved from previous weekly forecast videos   any correction here would be an opportunity  to start to look for bullish reversals   up towards the next care resistance  outside the target set and the 52 911 so that is it for me for this week guys as always  i hope you enjoyed this video and if you did   please let me know by liking sharing and  subscribing a big thanks to everybody who does   that on a regular basis and a big thank you to  everybody who has subscribed to the channel so far   i want to wish you all a fantastic weekend  and i want to wish you all the best in your   trading next week the only thing left to say  is take care and don't forget to trade safely

2021-08-23 09:04

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