Weekly Forex Forecast (19/04/21) EurUsd / XauUsd / 30+ Pairs
hey traders it's john fortune here this week's weekly forex forecast we're going to run through over 30 markets as we always do highlighting targets in each market for the week ahead as we go through the markets we're going to build out a high probability watch list along the way for next week and it's a data driven watch list it comes from currency strengths matching the strongest versus the weakest currencies so i hope you're having a great weekend let's dive in with the dxy we noted last week's video that the total number of trending markets was down from 69 to 29 and this decline was indicative of the markets getting choppy getting corrective and when this happens i reduce the amount of risk i reduce the amount of trades i take in the markets and going into this week the markets are down further trending markets from 29 down to 19 so what this means is the markets are continuing to correct and if we look at dxy we've been trading the dxy to the upside pretty much all year although for those of you who follow the forecast you will know that i do have a bias to the downside on the dxy fundamentally and i will be looking for the dxy to roll over to the 8846 at some point and this correction or this move to the upside rather which we've had since the beginning of the unit dxy i currently view just as a correction i think we are coming down to the 8846 at some point the fact that total number of trending markets has really dried up and declined is a sign that the dxy may be now rolling over because as the dxy rolls over as it tops out the market start to get choppy corrective and they start to turn as well so the first thing to notice is going into next week i will still be trading lightly as opportunities are fewer and further between than they were previously when we were looking at the markets and although the dxy is currently structured to the upside you can see we've had no breakouts here this is still trending to the downside we would really need to see the market breaking out and pulling back in order to start to reaffirm a bullish bias on the dxy start to look for those dxy strength trades however i would not be surprised to see this just rolling down taking out 91 30 next week so going into next week to cut a long story short i go into next week with a neutral bias on the dollar a slightly bullish to neutral bias and i would be prepared to trade the dollar pairs on their own merits without a strong bias in the dollar one way or the other crude oil i have been bearish on crude oil over the last month or so and we came down we took out one of the target set in previous videos i believe almost to the pip and we just started to move sideways we didn't really go any further down last week we broke higher and we do have a nice breakout now in crude oil this is in line with its overall trend so this goes down on the watch list next week as one to watch i quite like this market any correction in crude oil next week will be viewed as an opportunity to look for bullish reversals up towards the next care resistance outside the target set at 65.42 EURUSD i've been bearish on EURUSD in previous forecasts all the way down here and last week we finally reversed to the upside and it does look like we may be starting the next leg up especially if we pull back and we start to put in an inverse head and shoulders here what i would like to see next week is correction in EURUSD i am bullish i'm only looking for long positions in this market as it's structured to the upside and i have a neutral bias on the dollar especially if the dollar starts to break down next week i would be interested even more in EURUSD to the upside what i would like to see is any pullback in this market and notice how this just corrected and then reversed there was no real reversal in here we're just making higher highs and high lows higher highs and high lows all the way to the reversal so if you're looking for bearish breakouts for example in this market you filter out these reversals this reversal you don't take any trades in this because you're waiting for the market to reverse and it doesn't it just turns around before you get those breaks to the downside so very simply put the same applies going into this week any pullback in this market is going to be viewed as an opportunity to look for bullish breakouts i'll be looking up towards the next care resistance the upside in the target set at 1.2061 next is GBPUSD, GBPUSD is structured to the downside so opposite to what we saw in EURUSD, EURUSD structure to the upside GBPUSD to the downside so this adds some weight to EURGBP to the upside next week i wouldn't be surprised to EURGBP appreciating next week outside of the dollar pairs very simply put as this is structured to the downside i'm only currently interested in bearish reversals in this market down to the next care of support to the downside the target set the 1.3620 i think what my preferred trade in GBPUSD would be however is if we start to break lower in the DXY next week you can see we're forming although this is not yet confirmed so we still have to be bearish but we're forming a potential double bottom that would be confirmed on a break above the 1.39180 and if we break the 1.39180 and the dollar reverses to the downside this would give the green light for long positions and start to look for bullish opportunities in GBPUSD USDJPY doesn't make it on the watch list it is structured to the upside but i think there are probably better opportunities out there next week and the watch list has slimmed down even more since opportunities have dried up even more in the markets currently i would like to see a reversal in this market if you are looking to trade this and i would be looking for long opportunities up towards the next care resistance outside the target set in this market at the 109.83
next is AUDUSD last week AUDUSD was a good market we took out both targets and we finished the week right at the second target taking it out almost to the pip at the 0.7757 that was pretty much the high of the week in this market coming to this week this is one of the better dollar pairs that i like we have this inverse head and shoulders and as a result we were looking for a breakout to the upside we have nice momentum so any correction in this market although it doesn't make the watch list any correction in this market would be viewed as an opportunity to start to look for bullish reversals up towards the next care resistance the upside the target set at the zero 0.7810 so i do quite like the way this market is technically structured going into next week NZDUSD, NZDUSD is structured to the upside and i also like this market now going into next week we had this correction but we finished it with a big rally to the outside so we have momentum there's a good chance we see higher highs in this market so any pullback in this market next week will now be viewed as an opportunity to look for bullish reversals up towards the next q resistance the outside the target set at the 0.7221 USDCHF, USDCHF is structured to the downside it looks like we may be forming a head and shoulders in this market so any pullback towards 0.94040 it doesn't have to come all the way back but any pullback would be viewed as an opportunity to look for bearish reversals in this market down to the next care of support to the downside in the target set at the 0.9102 USDCAD now going into this weak dollar count does make it to the watch list and this has been quite a corrective market i've stayed away from this market for the last few weeks but it now does look like we could be set to decline and what we're seeing here although we haven't reversed in the dxy a number of these other markets are showing us that dxy could very well reverse and break lower next week so very simply put going to this week i am focused on short positions in us dollar cad any correction would be viewed as the opportunity to look for short positions down to the next key of support to the downside in the target set the 1.2436
next is XAUUSD now XAUUSD is structured to the upside we've started to finally break out of this choppy sideways move we've had in gold and we have some nice momentum so i do like XAUUSD going into next week as well although USDCAD is the only dollar pair to make the watch list i like AUDUSD to the upside NZDUSD to the upside XAUUSD to the upside and i also like USDCHF to the downside out of the dollar pairs so very simply put any pullback in this market next week would be viewed as an opportunity to look for bullish setups up towards the next care resistance the upside the target set at the 1807.87 so as i say us dollar cad is the only one to fully make the watch list and this is the one i'll be focused on the most however i will be keeping an eye on AUDUSD to the upside NZDUSD to the upside XAUUSD to the upside as well as USDCHF to the downside next week moving on to the euro and the end pairs EURJPY is structured to the upside and it does make the watch list this week i have been bullish on this market but the market just hasn't gone anywhere we've just been moving sideways so this is not a reversal i am still bullish but it's just taking a breather it's just taking a pause so any correction in this market once again will be viewed as an opportunity to look for bullish reversals up towards the next care resistance the outside the target set the 131.17 CHFJPY structure to the upside and on the watch list next week similar to EURJPY it's just kind of pausing at the moment but i do still have a bullish bias on this market and the bullish bias from the data is primarily coming from a weaker yen and you'll see this theme as we go through the rest of the charts so any correction in this market next week would be viewed as an opportunity to look for bullish reversals up towards the next care resistance the upside in the target set and the 119.25 GBPJPY also on the watch list this week and again primarily because of the end weakness we started to break out already so very simply put going into this week any pullback in this area would be viewed as a great opportunity to start to look for long positions up towards the 151.520 and if we can break through here we're going to be looking up towards the second target at the 152.75 AUDJPY i don't really like this chart going into next week although it does give us a bit of information which is that the aussie is structured to the downside against the yen so even though the yen is weak the aussie is actually quite weak compared to a number of the other currencies as well so very simply put if you are looking to trade this you should really only be looking to the downside as it currently stands however because of the in weakness as i said i would not be interested in shorts what i would prefer to see is a break above the 8448 and then i could start to look for long positions in this market next week so personally i'll be filtering out shorts to the downside and i'll be looking for this to break the 8448 to start to initiate long positions and look for bullish opportunities next week CADJPY it does make the watch list this week and again primarily because of that yen weakness but we're also seeing oil start to pick up which is supporting cad somewhat we're trending to the upside here and this is just simply viewed as it stands as a correction so any breakout to the upside in this market would be viewed as an opportunity to start to look for long positions into the next gear resistance the upside at the 88.47
NZDJPY, NZDJPY journey is structured to the upside we have some nice momentum so i wouldn't be surprised to see higher highs in this market and it does make the watch list again theme being again weakness going into next week that's what the data is pointing to the overriding theme of course is that the markets are choppy and so risks should be reduced but out of the markets that are there the yen pairs are looking like something to keep an arm for next week so any correction in this market would be viewed as an opportunity to look for bullish reversals up towards the next care resistance the upside in the target set and the 78.67 EURCHF, EURCHF is structured to the downside so i'm only interested in shorts in this market if i am trading it we're looking for a pull back towards the 1.107 t for a sell-off and we started to see that already so any correction towards this level once again is simply going to be viewed as another opportunity to look for bearish breakouts in this market down to the next care of supported downside target set the 1.0956
EURNZD, EURNZD looks to be correct and i'm not a big fan of this market going into next week i think there are better markets out there even the ones not on the watch list like the AUDUSD to the upside NZDUSD to the upside XAUUSD to the upside etc so if you are looking to trade this and i probably won't trade this next week i would only be focused as it stands on bullish setups and if we start to break to the upside that would be the indication we start to look for long positions into the next key of resistance the upside at the 1.6916 EURAUD now EURAUD is also getting slightly choppy as the dollar sells off and that's because both the euro and the aussie are two of the primary beneficiaries of a dollar sell-off so going into next week i think they're probably better markets we pull back to the 1.54 520 we highlighted so any reversal from this area would be viewed if you're looking to trade this market as the opportunity to look for long positions into the next gear resistance the upside in the target set at one point five six eight zero EURGBP shorted this all the way down since the beginning of the year we've been highlighting this over and over again to the downside in the weekly forex forecast and we have recently reversed to the upside so looking back as well to what we discussed EURUSD structures the upside GBPUSD structure the downside i wouldn't be surprised to see this head higher this week so outside of the pairs off of the watch list this is also one that i'll be keeping an eye on so any pullback in this market next week would be viewed as an opportunity to look for bullish reversals up towards an xq resistance outside the target set 0.8740 we're coming quite close to the target so i would like to see a pull back in this market deeper first and wrapping up the euro pairs is EURCAD we look to finish the one two three four and last week i was looking for this fifth wave into the 1.5053 last week we did have this fifth wave but we just missed the target by a few pips very simply put now it looks like we finished these five waves up i would not be surprised to see a deeper correction see this market getting a little bit choppy so i have two options here either i can buy this market next week or i can do nothing because it's currently structured to the upside so for me i will be doing nothing in this market almost certainly next week if you do want to trade it however the opportunity would still be to the upside looking for this fifth wave to take out the target at one point five zero five three so any breakout would be the opportunity to look for that target GBPCHF structure to the downside does not make the watch list any correction in this market would be viewed next week as an opportunity to look for bearish reversals and we have some nice momentum in here forming a potential head and shoulders pattern in this market any bearish reversal would be viewed as the opportunity to look for short positions if you're looking to trade this market down to the next gear of support to the downside the target set the 1.2575 now although a lot of markets were corrected and didn't really move last week GBPAUD was a market that did move and we took out both targets to the downside and the second target at the 1.7745 we took out almost to the pip and that was the low of the week last week in this market
very simply put going into this we have some momentum out of all of the markets not on the watch list this is another market which actually looks quite nice and technically we have nice momentum we're starting to pull back for this kind of bear flag pattern so any correction in this market would be viewed once again as an opportunity to look for bearish breakouts down towards the next kev supports the downside of target set the 1.7695 GBPCAD i still have a bearish bias on this market this was another market that really just didn't go anywhere last week and not surprising because as i've pointed out a number of times we have very corrective markets right now so any correction in this market once again is simply viewed as another opportunity to look for bearish breakouts down towards the next care of support to the downside the target set the 1.7051 GBPNZD doesn't make the watch list but i was bearish on this last week and i am bearish on it again this week we took out both targets to the downside very similar to GBPAUD and again the second target pretty much was the low of the week we took it out almost to the pip at the 1.917 going to this week i also like this as well as GBPAUD to the downside and it's for the same reasons i like those two as euro pound we have euro dollar to the upside AUDUSD to the upside NZDUSD to the upside but we have GBPUSD to the downside so euro pound to the upside has a good chance of working next week as well as pound aussie to the downside and pound new zealand to the downside so i like those three markets outside of the watch list that we have this week we also have momentum and we're starting to pull back for this bear flag pattern again so any deep correction is simply going to be viewed as an opportunity to look for short positions next week in this market down towards the next kf supports the downside in the target set at 1.9058 aussie frank i was looking for a pullback in this market i am bearish on this market overall my outlook on this is either to sell it or do nothing and i was looking for a pull back into the 0.7157 we turned at this level almost to the point here and so any
deeper pull back into this level once again if you are looking to trade this market should be viewed as another opportunity to look for bearish reversals down towards the next q support to the downside the target set 0.6990 just remember compared to the yen pairs as well aussie was showing a bit of weakness so this may be something to think about next week aussie cad now last week aussie cad took out his target to the upside at 0.9702 so think about this we have the australian dollar showing weakness against the yen whereas the canadian dollar is structured to the upside against the yen and yet when we come and look at aussie cad aussie caddy structure to the upside taking out its targets to the upside so what does this tell us it just underscores the fact that the markets are very very correct at the moment they're very very choppy there is a lack of direction across the board and as i said previously this is likely because if we're seeing the dollar topping out this is likely because of that so going into next week it just underscores the fact that we really need to go in with a capital preservation mindset until we start to see the markets finding direction again that's when we want to start allocating more capital it's not just about knowing what markets to trade it's knowing when to trade more and when to trade less or even in some cases we're not traded at all so very simply put going into next week the market is structured to the upside and we're starting to form this kind of ball flag pattern we have some momentum so if you are looking to trade this market any correction would be viewed as an opportunity to look for bullish reversals up towards the next care resistance the upside and the 0.9787 aussie new zealand like a number of the markets didn't really do anything last week just kind of chopped and grinded to the downside it actually took out previous lows and started to reverse so going into this week this is not on the watch list i think they're probably better markets out there but if you are looking to trade this i can only either short this or do nothing so any pullback to the 1.08520
would be viewed as the opportunity if you're looking to trade this market to start to look for short positions down to the next gear supports the downside the target set the six 1.0768 new zealand cad new zealand card is structured to the upside going into this week comes off the watch list we have some momentum i would not be surprised if we see high highs in this market but i think again there are probably better markets out there next week we started to correct already so any deep correction would be viewed if you are looking to trade this market as an opportunity to look for bullish reversals up towards the next care resistance outside the target set 0.9040 new zealand frank structure to the downside still but you can see with your eyes another market which is just kind of moving sideways really lacking direction we pull back to the 0.6601 which highlighted previously and we started to bounce so if you are looking to trade this any retest of this area would be another great opportunity to look for short positions down to the next care of support to the downside 0.6441
and last but not least we have cad frank for those who follow the forecast you'll know cad frank was a really nice market to the upside in q1 we traded this and week after week this was moving to the upside when we had lots of trending markets paid very handsomely in q1 and then the market started to dry up and we started to reverse somewhat so going into next week i'm either short or doing nothing in this market i think there are probably better opportunities but any correction in this market next week would be viewed if you're looking to trade it as an opportunity to look for bearish breakouts down towards the next care support to downside the target set and the 0.7274 so that is it for me for this week guys i do go into next week with a capital preservation approach and those are the markets there that i'm looking at on my watch list primarily i do quite like dollar week trades as well next week although we haven't fully reversed in the dollar just yet but if we start to break low in the dxy dollar we trade certainly something i'll be interested in and also pound weakness could be a theme next week as we discussed as it's one of the few currencies structured to the downside against the us dollar so as always i hope you enjoyed this video and if you did please let me know by liking sharing and subscribing a big thanks to everybody who does that on a regular basis and a big thank you to everybody who has subscribed to the channel so far and all of you who comment on a regular basis as well with really good comments and questions with that said i want to wish you all a fantastic weekend and i want to wish you all the best in your trading next week take care and don't forget to trade safely you
2021-04-20 02:43
