Weekly Forex Forecast (18/10/21) EurUsd / XauUsd + FULL PROCESS! [HD]

hey traders it's john fortune here this week's  weekly forex forecast i hope you're all having   a fantastic weekend we're going to continue this  week with the longer format the more in-depth   format since quite a lot of you seem to like that  last week and so again we're going to start off by   having a quick review of the key events for next  week and we're actually going to look at an event   last week uscpi data as well as an event which is  coming up next week because this is very important   for what we're looking at this week as well after  we've had a quick look at the key economic events   we're going to do our relative currency analysis  so we're going to look at the scorecards for the   currencies for this coming week and after we've  looked at the scorecards for the currencies we're   going to look at the individual currencies in the  futures markets to give us an idea of how these   currencies are performing individually and then  of course once we've done our relative currency   analysis in our individual currency analysis  we want those to match up and that process   points us towards the strongest and the weakest  currencies and therefore the markets which are   most likely to move in the coming week and so once  we've identified the best-looking currency pairs   going into next week we'll finish as we always do  by looking at stocks gold silver and also bitcoin   which has been performing really well in recent  videos so let's start by having a quick look at   the economic calendar and the first thing to note  is you can see this is for the week which has just   passed we do in fact have a piece of data from  last week which is something to pay attention to   to take note of and this was the inflation data  coming out of the us last wednesday and what it   showed is we did see inflation coming out above  expectations and it is slightly increasing in   the us so we have this inflationary environment  still and it's because of this that we've been   seeing the rise recently in crude oil and that  has also been lifting up canadian dollar which   we've been taking advantage of in previous weekly  forex forecast videos we've been looking for those   cad strength positions now for almost a month and  in fact last week cad was identified as one of the   best currencies in fact the best currency to look  for on the long side and it was one of the best   performing markets last week so coming into this  week if we flick to the economic data this week   and it's important to take note of the inflation  data last week because alongside the canadian   dollar you would also be expecting the new  zealand and especially the australian dollar to be   outperforming and to be picking up to be  strengthening in an inflationary environment   since these are also commodity currencies with  the canadian dollar if we have a look at the data   coming out this week and what we're really looking  for here is just a few things you don't have to   worry about all of these pieces of data because  a lot of this is to build out your macro your   fundamental ideas but in terms of the short term  trading opportunities what you want to look for is   first of all interest rate decisions so the  primary thing that you're looking for coming   into a week because if you have an interest rate  decision the markets of that country which the   interest rate decision is taking place in let's  say you have a canadian interest rate decision   the canadian dollar is unlikely to move until  you get that interest rate decision and if you   get involved and it's on a wednesday and you get  involved in a monday you're just going to be in   a market which goes nowhere for three days so the  first thing we're looking for really here is the   interest rate decisions and there are no  interest rate decisions coming up this week   the second thing you want to look for really are  gdp data and cpi data now the reason for this   and you can see we have on wednesday cpi data  coming out to the pound we have in fact tomorrow   evening so just on the market open for the week we  have new zealand cpi data and if we scroll down a   little bit further we also have some canadian  cpi data coming out here on wednesday now the   cpi data the gdp data these are coincident pieces  of economic data but they can cause sell-offs or   rallies in the markets they can act as catalysts  so if you see for example you have cpi data coming   out on wednesday that is a catalyst to look  for or to look out for on wednesday and you're   looking really for bull flags or bear flags in  the direction of the prevailing trend if you are   bullish on let's say pound yen and coming into  wednesday you see cpi data coming out and you see   pound yen doing something like this let's  say pound yen is trading to the upside and   then you start to correct like this and then  you have the cpi data and you get a rally   that's your opportunity in the direction of  prevailing trend to look for that type of bull   flag setup so whenever you see these cpi datas  keep an eye out for these during the week because   they very often do act as a catalyst in the  respective markets so canadian dollar perhaps on   wednesday we start to see catalyzing same with the  pound on wednesday etc so apart from the inflation   data and of course this will be something that  actually could happen overnight and you could   see these setups coming in from monday in terms  of the new zealand dollar but apart from those   there's not really we have some gdp data coming  out to china maybe this affects the australian   dollar but not too much we need to worry about  so apart from the cpi data we don't really have   anything else we need to plan around for or really  keep an eye out for in terms of short-term trading   opportunities this week but next week something we  have to look at is and this is going to make more   sense when we look at the currency strengths  as well we do have an interest rate decision   out of canada next wednesday so although we don't  have an interest rate decision this week we need   to bear that in mind because it does mean that  we could this week and potentially next week   see the canadian dollar kind of correcting see  some profit taking coming in in the run-up to   the interest rate decision next wednesday so keep  that in mind it's going to make more sense when we   look at the currency strengths as well so when  we look at the scorecards going into next week   and especially this week we're comparing them  to what we looked at last week you can notice   some changes coming into the markets here the  first thing to note is that the canadian dollar   has increased from three to four and of course  four is the maximum score on the flip side minus   four is the maximum or minimum score and the  japanese yen has got the maximum short position   score at minus four with the canadian dollar with  the maximum positive bullish position at plus four   now this is important because although the  canadian dollar is something we should be looking   towards the upside and also the japanese yen for  further declines when historically currencies get   this strong or this week they tend to correct  you tend to see some short-term consolidation   and sometimes even a bigger correction so for  anybody that has been following the forecast for   the last three or four weeks and being long on the  canadian dollar pairs or short on the japanese yen   pairs this is a sign that we should be looking to  book some profits on canadian dollar positions or   japanese yen short positions because again we'll  look at this when we actually look at the markets   and look at the futures charts as well when this  happens previously you start to see a correction   take place as profit taking comes into the market  so the second thing to note is that the euro is   also weak once again hasn't really changed it  remains unchanged and the fact that it's not   too weak it's not the minus four this week  actually suggests there's more downside in   the euro and i do like euro short positions going  into this week it's something i'm going to look at   another interesting thing to note is that the  us dollar is currently neutral from slightly   bullish last week and as the dollar has weakened  we've seen an increase in the strength of the   australian dollar and the new zealand dollar so  we're starting to see these commodity currencies   lining up near the top now and unlike previously  where we had a strong dollar and a strong cad and   this was signaling a stagflationary environment  with low growth higher inflation when we start   to see the commodity currencies lining up near the  top and we see the us dollar weakening especially   alongside the japanese yen and the other  safe haven assets this is pointing towards   more of a reflationary scenario so this goes back  to what we just discussed in the economic calendar   because we're seeing inflation increasing and  we're now seeing those fundamentals playing out   last week with the strengthening of the australian  dollar and the new zealand dollar which otherwise   were kind of neutral going into last week  and the final thing to note is that we also   saw a weakening of the swiss franc and the pound  somewhat from last week and again as we see those   commodity currencies appreciating we have the safe  haven asset of the swiss franc becoming weaker   alongside the us dollar and the japanese yen so  this is a reflationary type scenario that forex   markets are highlighting so to summarize here what  we're looking at is the canadian dollar versus the   japanese yen and also eurocad to the downside so  cadiente to the upside you're okay to the downside   these are markets that i am interested in because  we have a very strong cad and a very weak yen   however we are likely nearing the end  of the recent moves in those currencies   and so profit-taking and some short-term patience  is advised in those markets as a correction is   likely with that being the case the next thing  i'd be interested in is euro shorts to the   downside once again i highlighted a number of euro  short opportunities and they all apart from euro   dollar with the dollar slightly weakening all the  rest of them actually did work out very nicely to   the downside so going into this week i will also  once again be interested in euro short positions   euro short positions did work nicely last week we  looked at europe pound to the downside euro franc   euro aussie to the downside all of these were  nice markets euro dollar really didn't go   anywhere because the dollar weakened last week  but euro short positions once again is going to   be something i'm going to be primarily looking  at this week and because of the strengthening of   the commodity currencies i would like to look at  primarily europe aussie to the downside this week   euro new zealand to the downside this week i would  also be interested in aussie swiss franc to the   upside new zealand swiss franc to the upside with  that commodity currency vis-a-vis the safe haven   asset type of trade setup so if we look at the  individual currencies and we start with the us   dollar you can see we pretty much went nowhere  last week we started the week over in this area   one two three four five days later we more or less  finished and closed where we closed at the end   of last week so the dxy itself is corrective it's  in a neutral pattern and this is reflected in the   scorecard as well we see the dollar going from  slightly bullish to neutral and going into this   week what's interesting is we're sitting in an  area now where having retested the previous high   we're actually setting up a potential double  top this would be confirmed if we broke this low   which is the 9367 and that would actually turn  the dollar from being kind of neutral to quite   bearish especially if we broke down here with  momentum so when you have a scenario like this you   don't have to be predictive of the dxy you can be  reactive you can wait for the market to break out   rather than trying to guess which way it's going  to break is it going to go higher is it going to   go lower you don't have to do that you can wait  for the break and then you can start to trade the   majority of the move after the break happens and  in fact trying to predict breakouts to the upside   or the downside or to pick highs and lows is where  you're going to lose most of your money better to   miss that first move either to the upside or the  downside and then trade in that direction for the   majority of the move what's left of it so going  into this week the dollar index is still bullish   because the uptrend is still intact as long as  the market is above the double top confirmation   the 9367 but relative to the other markets the  dollar really is neutral it's not something which   going into this week is highlighting the best  trading opportunities so when you have a neutral   dollar you can do one of two things either you  don't have to trade the dollar markets and i can   just skip the dollar markets all together if there  are better opportunities or the other thing i like   to do is usually when you have a neutral currency  especially the us dollar you tend to have markets   which are structured both ways you have the dollar  which is structured to the upside against some   currencies and structured to the downside and  i personally like to put those on my watch list   and then once the dollar starts to move if  it breaks lower for example you can take the   dollar short positions or look for setups in  the dollar short markets and if we actually   start to break higher and make new highs you  can start to look for setups in the dollar   bullish markets so that's just what i personally  prefer to do but as i say you can also just leave   neutral pairs until they start moving and showing  some strength or weakness so going into next week   i am neutral on the dollar index if we look at the  euro the euro is still structured to the downside   and again last week we pretty much went  nowhere in the euro i am still bearish   on the euro we looked at it in the relative  analysis it is one of the weaker currencies   and we even failed to come and retest the  previous high over here despite the fact   that we didn't really go anywhere last week in the  dollar so the euro this is really underlining the   fact although we're lacking a bit of momentum down  here it's really underlining the fact the euro is   weak yes we may continue slightly higher but i  would be bearish overall on the euro if we look   at the pound now the pound is quite interesting  and this chart looks a little bit messy here but   it's quite straightforward we have a very  significant break below the low over here   this is the confirmation point of a major double  top in the pound and what's happening is we've   actually broken back above this now this  week and we sit actually in a range we are   stuck between this high over here which is  holding price here held here and now we're   back at the same place and also these lows  over here which is acting as a range bottom   so this really looking at this is also matching  up with what we just looked at in the relative   analysis that the pound is kind of neutral going  into next week it's actually slightly bullish to   neutral because we are breaking higher up here but  while it's stuck in that range it could actually   revert to the downside once again or in fact break  higher so there's no clear direction in the pound   going into next week so again confirming what we  looked at the relative analysis next is the swiss   franc now the swiss franc is a very interesting  type of setup because we have this one up one down   type scenario and this is why i would imagine  the swiss franc is showing a bit of weakness   it's not super weak but it is slightly  weak when we look at the relative analysis   and we have this head and shoulders here's your  head here's your left shoulder here's your right   shoulder broke down below the low that's the  confirmation point we then failed essentially   and we have an inverse head and shoulders  to the upside here's the left shoulder here   and you can see we just broke this last week  so again the swiss franc is in an area where   it could go either way it could fail again to  the upside and continue down in the direction of   the original head and shoulders breakout or this  could actually be a failure of the initial head   and shoulders breakout where we see a stronger  swiss rank to the upside now something to note   is the snb the swiss national bank want to see  the swiss franc heading lower so any swiss franc   long positions are against the smb better to have  short positions generally speaking in the swiss   franc with the smb as a tailwind as opposed to a  headwind so again really what we're seeing here   is we're seeing a lack of market direction for the  time being and it just underscores the fact that   the swiss franc is actually a neutral currency  going into next week next is the japanese yen   now the japanese yen is very interesting because  we looked at this last week having broken out   of this sideways correction which had been in  for a while i highlighted for the last three   weeks japanese yen weak setups as some of the  best setups and it has been the best performing   market outside of the cad longs we looked at  now what's interesting is when we looked at the   overall scorecard of the japanese yen and we  saw -4 it's the weakest it could possibly be in   terms of the scoring system the last time we saw  this was on the 15th of march where we actually   had in the scoring system the japanese yen at -4  and we had the cad at plus four which is exactly   what we're seeing going into next week now what  happened on the 15th of march you can see we had   over in this area one two three four five six  seven days of correction following that strength   rating or the weak rating of minus four and we  then continued to the downside and i expect what   we had over here is what we're going to see  over the next week or so in the japanese yen   and this is why i do think there is a high risk  of a correction of some profit taking coming in   and a near-term short covering rally over the next  week or maybe two weeks so we took out the target   to the downside last week the end was a really  nice market identified in last week's weekly   forex forecast going into this week what i'd be  looking for is perhaps we take out the target to   the downside the next target and then we start to  correct for between let's say five to ten days and   then we start to see the next leg down you can see  it looks like we have a one wave here a shallow   two so if this is a third we could have a deep  four because markets tend to alternate like this   if this is deep this tends to be shallow and vice  versa well this is quite shallow so i wouldn't   be surprised to see this snapping back probably  up into this area before heading lower so again   bearish on the yen overall but don't be surprised  to see this correcting next week and potentially   the week after the next market is the canadian  dollar you can see also on the 15th of march   which was the last time we had the canadian dollar  at a rating of four which is the highest it can be   what happened we had one two three days continuing  to the upside and then we had a correction   so again just as we looked at in the japanese yen  because the rally in the canadian dollar is so   strong i would not be surprised to see a near-term  top for between let's say five to ten days over   the next week or two now this links back as well  to what we looked at in the economic calendar   and the fact that we have an interest rate  decision next week what happens when you have   an interest rate decision either this week  or next week the market can tend to correct   profit taking comes in before that then so when  you put those two things together a near-term   top in the canadian dollar for between five  and ten days into that interest rate decision   is certainly something that i think is a very  high probability yes we could continue higher   and in fact you can see here this is the inverse  head and shoulders target from this breakout   perhaps we come up and we have one more  high for a day or two taking out this target   and then we start to see the corrections so  patience is required on the canadian dollar   i would like to see this correct first and i  think in terms of canadian pairs i think the   money's already been made and we're probably  just going to see this correct now into the   interest rate decision next week so if you're  getting involved in those cad pairs you run the   risk of being in a market which goes nowhere for  the next week and a half the next market we're   going to look at is the australian dollar now  the australian dollar broke to the upside and   this is a really interesting market here because  what we're seeing here is we are seeing a big   inverse head and shoulders which is developing  you can see here is our new high over here and   in the right shoulder we also have a mini  inverse head and shoulders which broke out   recently last week and we're seeing some  strength now coming into the australian dollar   so it does look like there's a very good chance  we're going to come up and test the major breakout   level here of the 74760 which is the next target  to the upside and if we're going to start to pull   back and we're going to continue higher taking out  this target and potentially if this is going to   break with momentum this is a major reversal this  would be the confirmation point where we could see   real momentum coming into the australian dollar  above the 0.747 so remember what we looked at   in the dxy especially if we get that double top in  the dxy and we start to break lower like this this   would be the sign that we're starting to reverse  in the dollar and this would give support to the   australian dollar as it breaks through this major  high and potentially develops into a much bigger   or much larger uptrend because an inverse heading  shoulder like this this is the start this is where   trends are born so aussie strength going into this  week is definitely something i'm interested in   and finally if we look at the new zealand dollar  we see a very similar set up what we see here is   this huge ball flag type pattern this correction  and we have this inverse head and shoulders   and the right shoulder which failed to make a low  has now formed a breakout and it's formed its own   inverse head and shoulders down here and in fact  if i look at this it's a little bit of a stretch   for inverse head and shoulders because you would  have to take it all the way from over here but   this which is not really a textbook head and  shoulders or inverse head and shoulders in this   case this reversal this failure to make a low over  here and a reversal higher with momentum in the   new zealand dollar see let's see this previous  high and these break out these this correction   here outside of this downward sloping trend line  this potential inverse head and shoulders which is   a little bit messy because it would be much nicer  to see the left shoulder coming down here this is   more textbook when you have the market coming down  like this and then up and then you have these left   and right shoulders kind of meeting that's really  a textbook inverse head and shoulders in this case   but either way we had this correction and now  we've broken with momentum look how many candles   we've broken above this high this is a market  which is indicating it's likely to correct and   then continue to the upside like this if that's  the case new zealand long positions are definitely   something i'm going to be interested in going into  this week so the commodity currencies are looking   good for long setups going into this week but  the canadian dollar has been performing so well   recently a little bit of patience going into that  interest rate decision next week is a good idea   it could actually be a little bit risky and i  think we could see it moving sideways between   now and next wednesday okay so now we've looked  at the currencies individually and we've done the   relative analysis and we've got the scores for  the currencies and the strong of the week going   into next week the first currency pairs we're  going to look at are the canadian pairs because   we looked at these in last week's video before we  look at those let's just quickly look at crude oil   as this is of course relate to the canadian dollar  in the sense that when you have a strong crude oil   price this feeds through the balance payments  and it helps demand for the canadian dollar   and vice versa when oil is selling off this  suppresses the price of the canadian dollar   we've seen the canadian dollar rallying as crude  oil has been rising to the upside because of the   inflationary environment that we've been in  and going into next week i do still favor long   positions in crude oil there is no reason as it  currently stands to look for anything other than   bullish opportunities in crude oil any pullback  in this market would simply be viewed once again   especially as inflation is picking up for bullish  reversals up towards the previous target set in   crude oil at the 83.92 so let's now look at the  two top canadian dollar pairs well the first one   is cad yen this was a market i highlighted last  week we had a huge rally in fact we've had this   to the upside for the last few weeks we had a  huge rally taking out both targets to the upside   in this market last week and going into this week  if you remember the last time we had this scenario   it was back on the 15th of may 2021 and  we looked at how the yen rolled over   or actually rallied slightly because it was to the  downside and we looked at how the canadian dollar   which was strong rolled over to the downside for  about 10 days and you can see what happened to cad   yen the last time we had the cad with a rating  of four and the yen with a rating of minus four   we did rally a little bit higher over the next  five to ten days however we started to roll over   as those markets mean reverted so just bear in  mind with the canadian yen especially since we've   had such big moves over the last three weeks that  we've been looking at to the upside i would now be   looking at taking profits if you're in this market  and i would be waiting leaving these markets until   the canadian interest rate decision next wednesday  so next cad pair we're going to look at is eurocad   again the strongest currency versus one of the  weakest currencies after the japanese yen now   eurocad to the downside also looks good but just  as we looked at in cad yen this probably requires   a bit of patience between now and next wednesday  i would not be surprised at all to see this market   snapping back to see profit taking coming in and  seeing this market correct between now and next   wednesday so again i like eurocad but patience is  required i'd prefer to wait until next wednesday   because any shorts in this area could be a bit  crowded and we could see this snapping back in   your face if you start to go short once again this  week so another great market from last week taking   out the target however patience required on those  two markets now in my opinion i also like aussie   yen new zealand gen and we can also look at dollar  yen these are markets we looked at previously we   took out both targets to the upside in aussie yen  and you can see in the daily chart we also have   this inverse head and shoulders situation  which we've broken out of and we've broken   with momentum this is an indication of a new trend  to the upside so like the canadian dollar i would   not be surprised to see the japanese yen correct  him for between five and ten days first even if we   come up saying we take the target i do think we're  going to see a near-term top after this correction   aussie yen to the upside is definitely something  i'm going to be interested in once again up to   the 85-44 or if we take this out first up towards  the second target here at the 87.19 next is new   zealand gen and we're kind of shooting through  these quite quickly because they're all patients   trades they're not really something i'm looking  at going into next week but we're looking at them   first because of the strongest and the weakest  currencies new zealand gen also had a big rally   to the upside we also have an inverse head and  shoulders which is broken out which is the sign   that we have started a new trend to the upside so  i do like new zealand yen but because of what we   looked at in the end look for this correction  first in new zealand gen and once we get the   correction i wouldn't want to be long up here once  we get the correction even if we move a bit higher   that will be the opportunity to start to look for  bullish opportunities once again into the 81.50 in   new zealand yen and the final yen pair we can look  at is us dollar yen another really nice performing   market from last week we had a really strong rally  taking out both targets to the upside and again   after a near-term top a near-term correction in  this market i would be interested over the next   two weeks to start to look for further advances  to the upside in us dollar yen but just as we   looked at the cad pairs i do think we could see a  near-term top over the next week or so in japanese   yen so look for this correction in the end pairs  and once we have that perhaps next week in the   weekly forex forecast that will be setting up  nicely for new long positions to the upside so   bullish but be aware of that near term top okay  so moving on to the markets which are setting up   nicely for next week i do think euro aussie is  a really good market going into next week it's   one of my favorite markets because we started  to see the aussie strengthening from a kind of   neutral standpoint and at the same time the euro  is a -3 it's still weak looks like it has some   further declines to the downside this was a market  highlighted last week and we did take out both   targets to the downside so going into this week  what i would like to see in EURAUD because we do   have a little bit of a lack of momentum here  i would like to see a pullback first so any   pullback in your aussie going into next week is  going to be viewed as the opportunity to start   to look for bearish reversals what i'm going to be  looking for is this the market starts to pull back   we make new highs in the four hours and then  we start to break down in that kind of head   and shoulders pattern which we've been looking  at that's going to be the opportunity to start   to look for bearish setups down to the next  key of support to the downside the target set   the 1.5545 the next market i like going into  next week is EURNZD again we're seeing the euro  

selling off a weak currency against that  commodity currency if you look at EURNZD   you can see the momentum we have coming into  this market and this is reflected in what we saw   in the new zealand futures market we had that big  momentum rally to the upside and this which is a major reversal to the downside with momentum this  head and shoulders reversal after this near-term   correction in EURNZD this is signaling the start  of a new trend to the downside and this sell-off   here what i would be looking for is a continuation  of this momentum so first of all what i would like   to see is take out the target at the 1.6385 any  pullback in this market next week is going to   be viewed as the opportunity to look for bearish  reversals down to the next key of support to the   downside the target set at the 1.6293 so EURAUD  and EURNZD are my two favorite euro pairs the next   pair we can look at is EURUSD i always put EURUSD  into the weekly forex forecast no matter whether   it's a good market to trade or not because people  ask me to put it into the weekly forex forecast   every week because a lot of people like to trade  this market all the time i am still bearish   on EURUSD and i would be viewing this as an  opportunity to look for bearish reversals in this   market so if we start to come up and then we break  lower like this just as we saw that momentum break   out to the downside EURNZD for example that would  be the opportunity to look for pullbacks and start   to look for short opportunities down to the 1.1496  the only thing i would say about euro dollar is   to me if the australian dollar and the new zealand  dollar are stronger than the us dollar why would i   short EURUSD to the downside if i can short EURAUD  or EURNZD so i don't believe it's as good a setup   going into next week i'm more interested in the  commodity currencies versus the euro the next   market to the downside then would also be euro  pound this was a market we looked at last week   and we came very close to taking out the target in  euro pound and you can see we've broken down again   with momentum we've started to break lower and  when we have momentum like this in the markets   this is usually indicative of further declines we  have this kind of bear flag set up so any pullback   it's quite a strong sell-off we're coming close to  achieving the target set from last week in EURGBP   bear in mind you're trading in this scenario  a weak euro versus a neutral pound and that's   why we're seeing this move to the downside purely  because although the pound isn't very strong the   euro is relatively weaker so any pullback in this  market next week would be viewed as an opportunity   to start to look for bearish reversals and going  to be looking down towards the next key of support   to downside the target set at the 84 160. again  i prefer EURAUD and EURNZD but EURGBP is another   market i'll be keeping my eye on for potential  bearish setups so next market i'm interested in   AUDCHF now AUDCHF is similar to EURAUD because  the euro and the swiss franc tend to move   in similar ways although the euro is currently  weaker than the swiss franc so i prefer EURAUD   but AUDCHF to the upside is an interesting  market if we go to the bigger time frame here   you can see another aussie market here reflecting  what we saw in the futures market with this major   break to the upside this inverse head and  shoulders which again is indicating this is   potentially the start of a new trend to the upside  in AUDCHF so as we see in the currency scorecards   the australian dollar strengthening week on week  we also saw the swiss franc weakening week on week   so going into next week i do like this market this  is definitely one that i'm going to be keeping an   eye on we took out the previous target at 0.68230  i'm going to take this off just for the time being  

because this is the major inverse head and  shoulders breakout level but it's kind of getting   in the way here because you can crisscross that so  any pullback in AUDCHF i'd like to see this come   down because we're lacking momentum i'd like to  see this come down and kind of reset taking out   the lows any pullback in this market will be  viewed as an opportunity to look for potential   bullish reversals up towards the next care  resistance upside the target set and the 0.6898   the next market i like is NZDCHF, NZDCHF we also  have this major inverse head and shoulders and the   right shoulder now has also a mini inverse head  and shoulders as well which we broke out with   momentum so again this is indicative of a failure  to make a new low over here here is your low here   is your now higher low because you've reversed  the upside before taking out the previous low and   this momentum to the upside is also indicative  of further advances to the upside so what i'd   like to see here in NZDCHF is any pullback in this  market is going to be viewed as an opportunity to   look for business reversals up towards the next  care resistance outside the target set 0.6581   and the final two markets that we're going to  be looking at here in terms of forex markets are   AUDUSD and NZDUSD now the reason i'm interested  in these is because as we've gone through these   markets we have two dollar bullish setups we  have us dollar japanese yen which is a dollar   bullish market we have euro dollar to the downside  which is a dollar bullish market so if the dxy   which is currently neutral continues to the  upside and fails to break the double top   if you remember we have this potential double top  in the xy if it continues its rally to the upside   what you're going to see is this failure to  confirm the double top in the dollar index will   result and new highs taking place will result in  euro dollar doing something like this it will sell   off like this and then the pullback will be the  opportunity to start to look for further declines   to the downside so if the dollar index fails  to break the confirmation level and it fails to   confirm that double top and instead makes higher  highs i would be looking at euro dollar for those   potential dollar bullish setups in this case euro  dollar to the downside but if we get the us dollar   index breaking that double top especially with  momentum if the dxy starts to do this next week   what you're going to see is instead of breaking  to the downside and pulling back like this as a   breakout a kind of bare flag you will just  see EURUSD continue to move to the upside   there won't be any short opportunities in EURUSD  whereas AUDUSD and NZDUSD will rise to the upside   as you get this dollar sell off so you can look to  potentially play the dollar breakout either way so   with that in mind if we start to break down in the  dollar index if we come down and we break this low   down here and we confirm this double top next week  like this what i'm going to be doing is i'm going   to be flipping over to aussie and new zealand if  we start with the aussie dollar you can see again   inverse head and shoulders break out to the  upside here is your potential one wave over here   or your new high potential second wave and  the start of the new trend a major trend   especially if we get the dxy reversal  would be on a break above the 0.71580   and that would be in line with higher  inflation expectations as well so any   pullback in this market this week  if we start to pull back like this and at the same time the dxy does something like  this comes up we have the double top and we start   to move up and as we move up this moves down and  then the dollar index breaks lower that's going to   be the opportunity to look for bullish reversals  up to the 0.71580 and if you get a good entry on   here you could even leave this to see if this  breaks the major breakout point or the start of   a potential third wave in the bigger picture in  aussie dollar that would be more of a fundamental   position so again each person trades and executes  differently but just something to think about   going into next week and on that dollar double  top breakout to the downside i would also be   looking at new zealand dollar to the upside we  have this inverse head and shoulders again what   looks like a potential one wave now because we  failed in this area to come and take out the low   and as the market starts to reverse the upside  this could very well be the second wave and we   could be starting especially as we see momentum  we could be starting a third wave which would   start the trend would be born above the 0.71670  so if we get that double top confirmation next  

week in the dxy i will be looking at new zealand  dollar and what i'd like to see is any pullback   in this market first especially if we get for  example a correction on the cpi data let's say   cpi data comes out and we have new zealand  dollar selling off to the downside and then   we start to see the dxy breaking that would be  the opportunity to look for bullish reversals   up towards the next care resistance  upside in the target set 0.7167   and again just like aussie dollar if we break  this level here this would be a major breakout   to the upside and we could very well see a  big third wave coming into new zealand dollar   because that would actually be the start of in  the bigger picture a new trend to the upside so let's run through the rest of the markets  very quickly because i don't want this video   to go on for too long but having run through the  currency complex we can see the currency markets   are starting to transition between a more  stagflationary scenario to a more reflationary   scenario as we start to see the dollar index  weakening and we also see the commodity currencies   gaining this reflationary scenario is also being  borne out in the stock market last week we saw   an inverse head and shoulders break out to the  upside and i am bullish on stocks going into this   week so any pullback in the s p 500 is viewed  as an opportunity to look for further advances   into the four five four four eight and i would  be interested in being long stocks in the s p   500 next week next is the nasdaq now the nasdaq  is also breaking out of a potential inverse head   and shoulders not quite textbook like we just  looked at in the s p 500 this is very similar   to the sloping inverse heading shoulders we saw  previously but either way we are starting to break   to the outside with momentum a potential third  wave coming now in the nasdaq so any pullback   in this market next week is now viewed as an  opportunity to start to look for bullish setups   and i would also be interested in being long  the nasdaq stocks i'm looking for nasdaq to   move into the 15 549.03 next is the dow jones  now the dow jones has also broken to the upside   we started to reverse at the bottom this is a  little bit of a range here and so going into   next week i do favor long positions in the dow  jones any correction is simply viewed now as an   opportunity to start to look for bullish reversals  up towards the next care resistance outside the   target set and the 35924.21 next is the russell  now the russell is a market that has held up as   all the other markets were selling off the small  cap index has just moved sideways and i mentioned   in previous videos that this was a sign that  we're not going to see a market crash this was   one of the signs that was showing that we're  going to get a correction in s p 500 but we're   going to start to move higher and we started to  break higher last week so very simply put going   into this week i do still favor long positions in  the russell any pullback in this market is viewed   as an opportunity to once again start to look for  bullish setups and bullish reversals i'm going   to be looking up towards the next key resistance  the upside in the target set at the 2323.32 next   is the nifty now the nifty has been a really  good market that's just been taken out target   after target to the upside we've been bullish  on the nifty even as the us indices corrected   and we did take out the previous target set at  the 1804 715. going into this week i am still  

bullish on the nifty any pullback in this market  is simply viewed as another opportunity to look   for bullish reversals up towards the next care  resistance upside the target set at the 18 569.20   and finishing up with gold silver and bitcoin  if we look at XAUUSD we can see last week we did   actually reverse to the upside we broke this  inverse head and shoulders but we came down quite   hard and the problem with gold last week breaking  out was the dollar is not yet bearish it's still   fairly strong and unless we get that double top  reversal XAUUSD is going to be capped any move to   the upside is going to be followed by a sell-off  like this or you're going to see the market be   choppy XAUUSD is a market i'm going to keep my on  next week and if we take this off here just very   quickly what i want to be looking for next week  is i want to be looking for that reversal in the   dollar index so if the dollar index breaks down  below the confirmation especially with momentum   what you're going to see is you're going to see  XAUUSD coming down and then you're going to see it   start to break up like this if that takes place  i'm going to be looking at initiating longs up   towards the next key resistance the outside target  set the 1801.78 and if we can break through here   i'm going to be looking at target 2 the 1819.11  so another setup going into next week which   i'm going to be reactive on it will be based on  whether the dxy reverses to the downside or not   if the dxy continues higher i will not be  interested in trading XAUUSD next week next   is XAGUSD, XAGUSD is another market which will be  based on whether we get that reversal in the dxy   if we don't reverse lower in the dxy i won't trade  XAGUSD because it's structured to the upside and i   only like to trade gold and silver when they're  in line with the dollar being either bearish or   bullish depending on which way i'm looking to  trade the markets so very simply put going into   next week i'm going to be looking for a pullback  in silver and what i want to see is i want to   see that coincide with the dxy breaking lower  eventually perhaps it pulls back a little bit here   and then we get the correction and then it breaks  lower confirming the double top reversal we'll see   an initial break higher in the four hours and then  that would be the opportunity to start to look for   bullish setups up towards the 21.15 and if we can  break through here going to be looking up towards   the 24-6-1 and last but not least is bitcoin now  bitcoin has been a fantastic performing market   we've been bullish on this really i can't remember  exactly where we turn bullish but we've captured   the majority of this move to the upside in the  weekly forex forecast we have broken above the   previous correction here with momentum we took  out the previous target at the 58 622 and so   going into this week any pullback in this market  will be viewed as an opportunity to start to   look for bullish setups up towards the next care  resistance the upside the target set and the 64   690. so that is it for me for this week guys i  will try and get the video closer to the 30 minute  

mark in future videos we have gone a little bit  longer than we did last week but i have indexed   the video down below so you can jump to bits and  pieces as you wish as always i hope you enjoyed   the video and if you did please let me know by  liking sharing and subscribing a big thank you   to everybody who does that on a regular basis and  a big thank you to everybody who has subscribed   to the channel so far i want to wish you all a  fantastic weekend i want to wish you all the best   in your trading next week the only thing left to  say is take care and don't forget to trade safely

2021-10-17 14:44

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