Weekly Forex Forecast (15/11/21) EurUsd / XauUsd + FULL PROCESS! [HD]

hey traders it's john fortune here this week's  weekly forex forecast i hope you're having a   fantastic weekend we're going to start off by  having a quick review of the economic calendar for   last week and also for the coming weeks because  there's important data not only last week but   in a couple of weeks time which we need to pay  attention to now we're then going to look at   the scorecards for the strengths and weakness of  the currencies going into this week and last week   those scorecards were pointing us towards pound  weakness and pound weakness was a very good theme   last week paid off very nicely we're then going  to move on to the individual currency analysis   we're going to look at the currencies on their own  in the futures markets and once we've done that   work we're going to look at the currency pairs  themselves and identify the best looking pairs   in the markets next week and as always once we've  finished with the forex markets we're going to go   and have a look at the stock market we're going  to look at gold silver which had big breakouts   last week in which we identified as key markets  to watch in last week's video i'm going to finish   as we always do with bitcoin so let's first of  all start off by looking at the data which came   out last week because it was an important piece of  data which impacted the markets last week and that   was the core cpi and the cpi data out of america  it came out much higher than forecast was forecast   to be 0.6 came out at 0.9 and the core cpi was  forecast to increase by 0.2 to 0.4 and it came   out in 0.6 so what does this mean well it means  inflation is running higher than forecast and as   a result we saw a strengthening of the dollar last  week as traders and speculators bought the dollar   in anticipation of the fed having to perhaps  taper at a faster pace or act in a way that is   more urgent than previously stated why because  inflation has come out greater than forecast   so whether that's the case and whether the fed do  that remains to be seen however the main point of   this is that we did see a very strong rally  in the dollar index and this has implications   going into this week it's something we're going  to be paying attention to in the markets for   opportunities this week the second thing to note  from last week was the australian employment data   came out very very bad and again we saw conversely  a sell-off in the australian dollar as trades and   investors are anticipating the opposite of what  we just discussed for the dxy that the australian   central bank the rba is going to have  to continue loose monetary policy   in order to stimulate growth in the economy  so two important data points from last week   that we want to take into the plan for this  week in terms of the economic data for this week   you can see that we do have some retail sales  data we do have a couple of speeches but going   into this week there is not really too much we  need to worry about pay attention to or plan for   we do have some cpi data coming out of cad and  also out of the uk these can act as catalysts   just as we saw last week but they're not something  i tend to plan trades around and they are unlikely   to reverse trends unless we get some very  unexpected data coming out so two pieces of   data to pay attention to in this coming week which  can move the markets is the cpi data out of the uk   and out of canada both of those coming out on  wednesday the 17th and the final thing i want   to do is to look ahead and this is to the 24th of  november so this is in a couple of weeks time and   the reason i'm looking ahead to this is because  we do have an interest rate decision on the 24th   out of new zealand there's nothing else really  we need to pay attention to in this week but the   reason this is important is because the week or a  couple of weeks before an interest rate decision   you can often see the markets going nowhere so the  market's specifically involved in that currency so   in this case of course we're talking about the new  zealand dollar so when we're looking to trade and   build out a trading plan for this week we need to  pay attention to this because it tells us the risk   of a correction or the new zealand dollar kind of  going nowhere over the next week or so is greater   so i would be still prepared to trade new zealand  dollar but it will go slightly down the list   compared to other currencies that we're  going to be looking at in today's video   okay so let's look at the scorecards for the  individual currencies for the coming week   and the us dollar is the strongest currency this  week it scores the best in our scoring system   and it means my primary focus this week will be  on dollar long positions just as last week the   primary focus was on pound short positions which  paid very nicely dollar long positions this week   do look to be the best play and we also have  that fundamental data from last week giving us   some fundamental back in some wind in our sales  for further advances this week in the dxy the   second strongest currency is the canadian dollar  which is holding up despite a strong dxy and this   is because of the oil price still staying quite  strong despite the fact we may have a near-term   correction in crude oil the swiss franc is down  one from last week and we know that from previous   videos a rating of one or zero is kind of neutral  so the swiss franc really is not a strong or very   strong currency it's kind of bullish to neutral we  have the japanese yen and the new zealand dollar   completely flat going into this week these are  neutral currencies and this is not very surprising   for the new zealand is it because we identified  that interest rate decision a couple of weeks time   and so the fact that new zealand dollar has gone  from a strong currency to a neutral currency   in the build-up to that interest rate decision  in a couple of weeks time does not surprise me   we may see the new zealand just be flat so just  bear that in mind don't want to be in currencies   which don't go anywhere and on the short side we  have the euro as the weakest currency which is   down one the australian dollar which is down  one from neutral and we also have the pound   which is still quite weak but it's actually up  one from last week so we've seen a strength in   the pound from last week so going into this week  i would be interested in euro pound aussie shorts   primarily interested in us dollar long positions  can also look at CAD long positions and   we can also look at frank long positions but on  the short side alongside a strong dollar i would   really like to focus on the australian dollar  which we saw weakening although it's not quite   as weak as the pound or the euro yet we did see it  weakening and that's a sign we could continue to   see it weak and going into this week and also the  euro which weakened from a -1 rating to a minus   two rating this week so those two are really the  key shorts i'll be looking at this week although   i will be interested in pound shorts again so  to conclude where does that leave us going into   this week well i do like australian dollar to the  downside is something i'm going to be looking at   EURUSD to the downside is a key market i'm going  to be looking at this week once again if you're   looking at pound dollar to the downside we can  also look at australian cad to the downside we   can look at pound cad to the downside and eurocad  to the downside we can perhaps have a look at   australian frank the downside pound frank to the  downside EURCHF to the downside but just bear in   mind the frank is kind of bullish to neutral it's  not strong as the cad in the us dollar so i would   prefer dollar and cad long positions before frank  long positions but we can certainly look at that   and when you have flat positions like the  new zealand you can pair them with very weak   currencies like the euro for example or with very  strong currencies like the dollar but generally   speaking what we're looking for here is the best  trading opportunities next week and that comes   primarily from strong versus weak currencies okay  so let's now look at the individual currencies   starting with the dxy as we always do you can see  we're in the daily charts here when we're looking   at the individual currencies and you can see we've  broken out of this near-term correction in the dxy   took out the target to the upside set from  last week and we started to break even higher   this was off of the back of that strong or i  should say high cpi print and a forward-looking   anticipation of an increase in the pace of the  tightening of the monetary policy from the fed   so going into this week you can see that  the dxy is very bullish we've broken   out of this correction with momentum as well and  going into this week what i would be looking for   is a pullback in the dxy start to flag and  further advances up towards the 95.74 so dxy   long positions once again underlined as one of the  best looking opportunities going into next week   next is the euro the euro sold off taking  out the target set to the downside last week   euro shorts were something highlighted as a good  play in last week's video very similar to what we   just looked at in the dxy we've broken out of this  correction now and we're breaking with momentum so   i am looking for the declines in the euro the next  target is the 1.13870 underscoring that euro weak   positions going into next week are setting up to  be one of the best opportunities next is the pound   now the pound also sold off taking out its target  last week and we're making new lows in the pounds   so the pound is weak and this is again something  i'd be interested in shorting you can see not just   from the relative scorecard analysis but also  the individual analysis this is not a strong   market i would be completely away from pound long  positions next week so any pullback in this area   should be viewed as an opportunity to look  for further declines in the pound next week   next is the swiss franc now the swiss franc is  interesting it's actually technically structured   to the downside and this is where we start to get  the relative analysis and the scorecard system   coming into play to help us identify when you  have multiple markets which are either bearish   or bullish to identify which ones are actually  the most bearish which ones are the most bullish   and you can see here although the swiss franc is  technically bearish we're sitting right at the   previous breakout point of this inverse head and  shoulders i identified this for you previously we   have this kind of one up one down scenario major  head and shoulders break here's the confirmation   we failed we didn't inverse head and shoulders  in the opposite direction we come back to   retest the breakout point so when you look at this  technically yes it is slightly bearish technically   but you can see sitting at this breakout point is  kind of neutral the swiss rank is kind of neutral   so it's not as bearish as say the euro or the  pound so when looking for short positions euro   and pound would take precedent going into this  week next is the japanese yen the japanese yen is   a market highlighted in previous videos and what  we're looking for here is a potential fourth wave   and then further declines this fourth wave or this  correction is still in play and what i would like   to see is i'd like to see some strengthening in  the japanese yen pairs or weakening the japanese   yen further before really looking to commit to the  yen trades that we looked at previously and we're   going to look at them again today even though the  yen is kind of flat we're just going to keep on   top of those markets keep an eye on them to see  how they're playing out if you remember for those   who watched previous videos it looks like we'd  do a fifth wave in the yen pairs at some point   if we go look at the canadian dollar the canadian  dollar is also selling off individually you can   see this is quite a weak currency however compared  to a lot of the other currencies when we do the   analysis it's actually fairly strong so the first  thing to take away from this is that you can see   as the canadian dollar is selling off the dxy is  moving in the opposite direction so when we look   at long positions yes the canadian dollar is  stronger than a number of the other currencies   but it's the dxy which is really outperforming  going into next week and that's why i'm looking to   prioritize dxy long positions over canadian long  positions so even though you can see technically   this is quite bearish for the canadian dollar in  fact we look to be failing at a previous inverse   head and shoulders breakout point if you see  here this is the right shoulder there's a mini   inverse head and shoulders here but this is  in the right shoulder of a bigger inverse head   and shoulders so the canadian dollar is actually  quite weak individually but relative to the other   currencies it's fairly strong and again this is  not something that would instantly jump out at you   unless you have that relative analysis that we use  as well the next market is the australian dollar   and the australian dollar is potentially setting  up for a bigger move to the downside let's look   at this because we looked at this before and this  is something we really want to pay attention to   going into next week because this could be  the start of a bigger trend to the downside   why do i say that well first and foremost we  have this inverse head and shoulders break   which you can see the australian dollar is now  failing at we're failing at the breakout point   in fact we've already failed and we started to  sell off momentum has come in as all the people   who bought in this era start cell and we are  now looking to start to trend to the downside   so we have a failure of this inverse head and  shoulders and at the same time you saw that   economic data coming out last week the employment  data is poor and the rba are going to have to   keep loose monetary policy conditions in order to  try and stimulate the growth and try and get the   employment levels back up and for any of you  who have been reading the rate statements out   of the central banks you will know this is exactly  what the rba have said they've said that interest   rates are going to have to remain low they're  going to have to keep loose monetary policies   for the foreseeable future until growth starts to  pick up so this is fundamentally very bearish for   the australian dollar at the same time we have  a major failure to break out to the upside so   continued australian dollar weakness  not just next week potentially but also   over christmas and into q1 of next year is really  something you want to pay attention to and if   that's going to be the case it looks like the  dollar is going to continue to rise as well so any   pullback in the australian dollar next week would  be viewed as simply an opportunity to look further   declines and it looks like we're going to come  down at least to take out the lows here and on top   of what we've just discussed if we come down and  have a look at iron ore futures which play a role   in the australian dollar because of the amount of  iron that australia exports you can see the price   has really sold off in iron ore futures and  what does this mean well it means that as   this goes through the balance of payments in  australia there's going to be less demand for   the australian dollar so we really have quite a  lot of fundamental data points showing us that   the australian dollar is likely set for further  declines so again something i'm really paying   attention to guys is further declines in the  australian dollar over the next couple of months   and finally if we finish with new zealand dollar  you can see we have pretty much the same setup   we saw out of the australian dollar we have an  inverse head and shoulders which has failed and   we're starting to sell off we started to reverse  at this breakout point again i think we're coming   down further declines but don't be surprised to  see the new zealand dollar doing nothing next   week and potentially the week after because of  that interest rate decision so just be a little   bit careful with the new zealand dollar over the  next couple of weeks what i would really like to   see is the interest rate decision coming out first  and then starting to look for those moves to the   downside in the new zealand dollar so maybe  patience required when looking at new zealand   dollar positions okay so we're on the EURUSD here  and we're going to start to look at the currency   pairs now for the coming week we're on the  four-hour charts we're looking at currency pairs   on the highest intraday chart and you can see last  week we came down and we took out the target set   in EURUSD finish right at the second target this  was a market highlighted to the downside last week   going into this week you can see this break this  sell-off is a sell-off with momentum there's very   strong momentum in this market markets don't move  in straight lines what i would like to see is   any pullback in this area next week is going  to be viewed as an opportunity to start to   look for bearish reversals down to the next key of  support to the downside the target set at 1.1371   EURUSD next week and further declines in  euro dollar next week is one of my key   markets i'm going to be looking at is one  of my favorite markets going into next week   next is GBPUSD now GBPUSD was also highlighted as  a good play to the downside last week we pulled   back we came down straight into the target and  that was pretty much the entire move for the   week as we finished the week almost right at the  target set very simply put going into this week   i am looking for the declines in this market i do  like GBPUSD any continued pullback in this market   you can see we don't have as much momentum as we  do in euro so i actually prefer euro dollar but   any pullback this week in GBPUSD will be viewed as  another opportunity to look for bearish reversals   down to the next kiev supports the downside the  target set at the 1.3288 next is AUDUSD now AUDUSD  

really is a market that i like going into this  week for reasons discussed in the individual setup   and also when we look at the economic calendar we  did take out the target last week to the downside   very simply put going into this week you can see  the momentum we have coming into this market here   is a really nice break after this bear flag  to the downside and it looks like we're just   simply setting up for another bear flag to  the downside any pullback in this market   is going to be viewed next week as an opportunity  to look for further declines and bearish reversals   in this market down towards the next key of  support to the downside of the target set the 7263   or i should say 0.7263 just to be clear next  is NZDUSD now i do like NZDUSD to the downside   if we look at this technically and again we  discussed the failure of the new zealand in   and of itself to break higher just as we did  with australian dollar and i do like this market   further declines next week i am interested in new  zealand dollar shorts and what i would really like   and something i am going to be thinking about next  week is if we can get a pool back in new zealand   and there is the opportunity to go short somewhere  in this area if the market comes down to target   and it continues down and let's say we finish  the week right here this would actually put us   in a very nice position to hold on to any new  zealand dollar short positions so for example   new zealand dollar said the downside through  the interest rate decision and it would give you   some room i mean if you had to stop somewhere up  in this area it would give you some room to allow   the interest rate to play out and potentially a  very strong catalyst to the downside with minimal   risk because you will already be positioned into  this market before the interest rate decision so   again if you wish to trade this market how you  wish to trade this market is entirely up to you   i'm not telling you to buy or sell this market  i'm just telling you that i personally will be   looking for potential short opportunities in  new zealand this week so i can look to hold any   short positions which are in a decent profit  through the interest rate decision next week and   again new zealand dollar is the market i would  like to do that i won't be doing it with all   new zealand pairs but new zealand dollar that  is an opportunity i'm going to be looking at so   dollar strength plays are my preferred plays  and my main focus and priority going into   next week let's have a look at the canadian  dollar pairs and we'll start with crude oil   we can see crude oil is technically structured  to the downside i did comment before that   this looks to be more like a correction this is  not a very strong sell-off this is more corrective   and although i do have a target to the downsides  it currently stands 78.85 crude oil is not super   bearish it is as far as i can see a potential  short opportunity but it's not super bearish   so when looking at the canadian pairs yes crude  oil is structured to the downside and this doesn't   really help cad strength plays so there's a couple  of things to note here when we're looking at catch   strength plays the crude oil price is going to  weigh slightly on the canadian dollar the canadian   dollar is still technically bearish when we look  at it individually and that's why the dollar   strength plays are going to be by the looks bit  better plays than cad plays but even if we have a   slightly weak cad if the other currencies are much  weaker you're still going to see them depreciate   against the canadian dollar so that's really the  basis for the canadian pairs we're looking at this   week so let's go have a look at eurocad so eurocad  has been very corrective and in fact for those of   you follow the forecast you'll remember we were  short eurocad from summer up in this area for a   number of weeks and then we turned profit taking  or neutral on the cad as we started to correct   because the canadian dollar was a bit overextended  so we've been correcting and we've kind of been   off this market for a bit but the currency  strength scoring system has thrown this market   back up to us now and it's suggesting we may  finally get a break in eurocad to the downside   if we look at this technically what's very  interesting is we have a developing head and   shoulders which is a bearish reversal pattern  and it looks like we are now setting up further   declines pretty much from where we sit because we  have the right shoulder and we've started sell-off   so any pullback in this market next week will  be viewed as an opportunity to look for further   declines down to the next key of support  at one point four two six next is pound cad   pound cad is also selling off to the downside as  you can see the pound is relatively weaker than   the cad however we can see here look there's a  little bit of a lack of momentum price is getting   a little bit choppy so again i do like this  for a short position going into next week but   i prefer the dollar pairs with those momentum  moves so any continued pullback in this market   is simply viewed as another opportunity to  look for bearish setups down towards the next   kia supports the downside of the target set the  1.6692 next is aussiecad aussiecad actually has   some momentum in it relative to the eurocad  and poundcad setups we looked at so aussiecat   to the downside does look pretty decent going  into next week we've already started to correct   so any continued correction and this is going to  be simply treated as a bear flag opportunity any   continued correction will be viewed as opportunity  to look for bearish reversals and bearish setups   in this market down to the next key of support to  the downside the target set and 0.9114 so although   actually the euro and the pound are slightly  weaker than the australian at the moment aussie   cad looks quite appealing with this momentum  and it feeds into what we discussed earlier with   the australian dollar weakening from a neutral  state and potentially looking to weaken further   so although it's not as weak as the pound or the  euro going into this week we could see it actually   become the weakest currency in the next couple  of weeks and finally we have new zealand cad now   i've added new zealand cad into this because we  do have a kind of flat new zealand and we have a   fairly relatively strong canadian dollar and if  you see a blue line like this this is actually a   fairly high conviction target so i do think we're  going to come down further in new zealand cad   we are developing in new zealand cad ahead  and shoulders and it looks like any continued   pullback here is simply going to be setting up  a right shoulder in this market so any continued   pullback will be views an opportunity to look for  further declines down to the next kia supports   the downside the target set and 0.8599 and just  remember if new zealand cad goes nowhere next week  

you'll know why it's because of that interest rate  decision out of new zealand in a couple of weeks   so if like new zealand dollar you want to try and  position in before that interest rate decision   that's entirely up to you but just keep in mind it  might go nowhere and the final pairs we're going   to look at this week are the frank pairs we will  also look at the yen pairs just because as i said   earlier in the video going to just keep an eye on  these setups but for this week the frank pairs of   the final markets that i'm going to be looking at  and the euro franc market as the first market you   can see is structured to the downside what's very  interesting about eurofranc is we have quite a gap   between the 0.507 and the 0.411 and if we break  the 0.507 we could see very strong moves down to   0.411 so something to think about because if you  position into eurofrank and you take out the 05   070 with some momentum we could quite quickly  in short order so you move down to the o411   so any pullback in eurofrank is going to be viewed  as an opportunity to look for bearish setups   down to the 1.0507 and if we break through here we  could be coming down fairly quickly to the 1.0411   when i say fairly quickly it probably won't  do this in one week but we could see this   in of just a few weeks the final thing to note  about eurofrank as well is that we do seem to be   setting up a descending triangle pattern which is  a bearish pattern so something to keep an eye out   for next week if we start to test the top of this  pattern in this area this is where we could start   to head down in eurofrank next is pound frank now  pound frank was the market highlighted last week   we did have a nice sell-off in this market  previously however we just kind of corrected   a little bit last week and going into this week  i am looking for the target to be taken out   so any pullback in this market is simply going to  be viewed as an opportunity once again to look for   bearish reversals down towards the next  qf supports the downside the target set   the 1.2227 aussie frank you can see ozzy frank is  lacking a little bit of momentum compared to the  

other aussie setups we looked at and why this is  because the franc is not as strong as the other   currencies we paired it with so any pullback in  this market is simply viewed as an opportunity   to look for bearish setups bearish reversals down  to next key of support to the downside and the 0.6   and finally we're going to look at new zealand  frank new zealand frank is structured to the   downside i do have after doing the work a  fairly high conviction level here at 6 402   and so i do think we get further declines  any pullback in this market is simply   viewed as an opportunity to look for  bearish reversals and bearish setups   down towards the next kiev supports  the downside the target set 0.6402 and just to wrap up the forex section here  of the video we're going to look at the   empires very quickly us dollar yen was a market  highlighted last week to look for long positions   and we did rally after this correction towards  the target and does now look like we're going to   come and take out the target of the 114 730 for  anybody who was involved in this from last week   so going into this week because the dollar is  the strongest currency and the yen is kind of   flat if i was going to trade any of the yen  pairs it would be us dollar yen once again   so any pullback in this market would be viewed  as an opportunity to look for bullish setups   into the 114.730. when we go and look at cad yen  when we look at frankien and when we look at new   zealand gen aussie yen you can see as discussed  in previous videos it looks like we have these one   two the third wave and we're just in a fourth wave  so i am looking for other advances in this market   as well as frankie looking for that fifth wave  to the upside although arguably one two three   four maybe in frankie and we already have it but  in new zealand yen it does look like we have the   one the two the three the four we now come back  all the way to the 382 which we talked about as   the pullback target in these markets in previous  videos and this is why i'm not going into the wave   count too much because we've already discussed  this a number of times in previous videos   but it does look like we're going to get this  fifth wave to the upside what i would like to   see is the yen weakening first i'd like to  see the scoring system showing us that the   yen really has weakened and what you will see is  you will see these corrections ending and you'll   see a rally something like this and that would be  the opportunity to come in and start to look for   this fifth way to the upside so keeping an eye  on these markets for those potential fifth wave   moves but the scoring system tells us just to be  patient that the markets are still correcting and   these markets might not be ready to break out for  that fifth wave yet so wrapping up the video with   stocks gold silver and bitcoin in the last couple  of videos i did highlight the fact that the spx   was setting up for a correction and last week  we did start correct i did tweet out in fact on   november the 9th before the market opened that the  top in spx was likely in so feel free to follow me   on twitter as i do post some midweek updates as i  see new information coming in and you can see when   the markets opened on the 9th we actually had  this down red candle in the four hours and so   that started the correction from the ninth we did  start to turn up at the end of last week from what   i'm looking at it doesn't look like the correction  is yet over so i am overall bullish on stocks the   process that i use is not showing a bigger crash  in the stock market as some people are suggesting   so any pullback in spx will be viewed as  an opportunity to look for bullish setups   into the next kia resistance the upside at the  4749.90 so overall on stocks i do think we could   still be in a continued correction in the stock  markets i do think it's a good policy to have   your hedges in place your short positions or your  puts in place as part of a long short portfolio   over the coming weeks in case we get a deeper  correction or selloff in stocks i certainly have   my protections in place already but ultimately any  continued correction in the stock market is simply   viewed as another buying opportunity so let's go  and have a look at the nasdaq really everything   just discussed applies to the nasdaq as well we  did start to sell off in the nasdaq and again this   is the near-term correction that i've been talking  about over the last couple of weeks any continued   pullback is simply viewed as an opportunity to  start to look for bullish setups and i'm going to   be looking up towards the next key of resistance  the upside the 16711.74 so again just to clarify  

i don't see this as a reason to be liquidating  long-term long positions but i do think it's a   good policy to have your hedges in place next is  the dow jones the dow jones has started to correct   as we discussed in previous videos any continued  correction is simply viewed as an opportunity to   start to look for bullish reversals up towards  the next gear resistance outside the target set   at the 36 957 next is the russell now we  did have a very big breakout in the russell   again not going to go in too much details we  discussed this in previous videos but this long   term contraction correction call it what you will  in the russell ended with this rally higher we   are starting to pull back but again i just simply  view this as a near-term correction an opportunity   to buy at a better price in these markets any  continued pullback in the russell is simply viewed   as an opportunity to look for bullish reversals  up towards the next care resistance the upside   the target set at the 2491.51 and lastly we have  the nifty now i have been in previous videos   bearish or neutral on the nifty if you only  like straight to the long side and i noted   that we'd started to correct and i would prefer  to see a reversal in the nifty before i was long   on nifty once again and last week we did start to  break higher you can see we have now reversed to   the upside in the nifty so any pullback in this  market is simply viewed as an opportunity to look   for bullish setups into the next kiev resistance  at the 18444.50 so i have turned bullish on the   nifty once again so let's go and have a look at  XAUUSD now the interesting thing about gold is   this was a market highlighted in last week's video  and i highlighted the fact that it looked like   we were set for a major breakout above this high  over here and for anybody following the forecast   you will know that this major breakout did come  this was or i had previously suggested this   could be a third wave to come if we broke this  high and we did break with momentum now what's   interesting about this is we also broke the 1834  which after the break of this high was the second   key resistance which initiates a potential trend  change and this is what happens when you get major   breakouts you have this kind of cascade effect one  breaks then the second breaks then the third and   we continue to rally through this with momentum so  all the signs we're seeing here of this breakout   suggests this really is a real breakout and we're  going to move higher in XAUUSD and this is a trend   change to the upside what's interesting and  slightly disconcerting although not majorly   disconcerting is the fact that the dollar is  also breaking to the upside looks like we're   going to get continued dollar strength and usually  these markets do not move in the same direction   so why are we seeing XAUUSD appreciate at  the same time we're seeing the dxy appreciate   well if we go all the way back up here and we  look at the 10-year yield we're also seeing   10-year yield structured to the downside  although we had a bit of a spike last week   so really what this is showing us is we're seeing  a bit of a flight to safety because we're seeing   traders and investors buying XAUUSD they're  buying the dollar and at the same time   as bond yields come down although we had  a spike last week they're also buying   treasuries so really what we're seeing here is a  risk-off mentality and this is why we're seeing   the dollar and XAUUSD rising at the same time  as it currently stands if we go back to XAUUSD   whether the dollar is going to start to roll  over or whether XAUUSD starts to roll over   really remains to be seen the way i would prefer  to play this instead of trying to predict which   one will fail if one is going to fail would be  to be both along the dollar and long gold and   also silver and that way if one of them starts  to fail in reverse you're going to have your   other positions it's a bit like a hedge really  by playing both of those markets to the upside   so very simply put a really nice breakout to the  upside in gold last week any continued pullback   in this market as it currently stands is simply  viewed and we're very close to the next target any   pullback is simply viewed as another opportunity  to start to look for bullish setups in XAUUSD   i'm going to be looking up towards the target 2  from last week at 1869.95 but if we take this out   first and then pull back i'm going to be looking  up towards the second key of resistance the upside   at 18 90.1 so i am bullish on XAUUSD i'm aware  the dollar is also rising and instead of trying   to predict which one of these will falter if one  is going to falter and start to reverse lower   i'd rather be long both gold silver and also  the dollar at the same time to hedge out those   positions and that risk of a reversal in one of  them next is XAGUSD now XAGUSD also had a really   nice break to the upside and again when we look at  this even though the dollar's rising the momentum   we had on these breakouts and the price action  afterwards is really suggesting this inverse   head and shoulders is a trend change and a move  higher so i do still like XAGUSD long positions   despite the fact the dollar is also rising they're  both rising at the same time as i said with gold   we did take out the targets almost to the  point last week any continued pullback in   XAGUSD for the time being is simply viewed as  another opportunity to look for bullish setups   into the next kia resistance to the upside the  25.60 and last but not least we have bitcoin now i   have been highlighting a near-term reversal to the  upside in bitcoin this inverse head and shoulders   and i noted that bitcoin was structured to the  upside and that this inverse head and shoulders   break had not failed and we should be looking  for a rally into the six seven five one six   we did rally we took out this target  and we started to sell off in bitcoin   so if i refresh the charts here on bitcoin you can  see it looks like we're setting up for a ball flag   so any continued pullback and i am still bullish  on bitcoin any continued pullback is viewed as   an opportunity to look for bullish setups into  the next care resistance the upside the target   set at the 73 986 if you want to be conservative  in your target you can choose previous highs as a   profit taking opportunity but it does look like  we could be coming up to the 73 986 in the near   future so that is it for me for this week guys  as always i hope you enjoyed this video and if   you did please let me know by liking sharing and  subscribing a big thank to everybody who does   that on a regular basis and a big thank you to  everybody who has subscribed to the channel so far   i want to wish you all a fantastic weekend  and i want to wish you all the best in your   trading next week the only thing left to say  is take care and don't forget to trade safely you

2021-11-14 21:09

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