Trading Places Live! January 4, 2023
Tom Bowley: Good morning and welcome to this Wednesday, January 4th, 2023 edition of Trading Places Live at EarningsBeats.com. I'm Tom Bowley, Chief Market Strategist here at EarningsBeats, and I'll be your host for the next 30 min. Tom Bowley: featuring everything you need to know, as you prepare for the trading day ahead. Tom Bowley: first of all, Happy New Year for those of you that didn't Listen into my show yesterday, or at stock charts Tom Bowley: 2023 is here. Tom Bowley: the market kind of started off the way we Tom Bowley: you know what we performed in 2022 Tom Bowley: we did get off to an early start very early. Good start
Tom Bowley: but then the selling kicked in we saw mostly selling in the morning, which has been one of the Tom Bowley: features of 2,022. Tom Bowley: And then we rallied a little bit into the close and I've got a chart. I'm going to show you Tom Bowley: for those of you. You know I've I've Tom Bowley: for anybody who's been following the show. You know that I've done a lot of analysis of the Qqq. And the Spider on an intraday basis, just to show breakdown
Tom Bowley: of how they've traded during the trading day. And I actually went back another year and did it to 2021, and I want to show you the difference between those 2 years, and we'll do that in just a little bit Tom Bowley: Today's session. Tom Bowley: is probably going to be shortened. Tom Bowley: instead of the usual 30 or a little bit more than 30 min Tom Bowley: might cut it back to about 15 min, and the reason I've been under the weather for about the last week or so with a cold Tom Bowley: and we've got our huge event on Saturday Tom Bowley: market vision Tom Bowley: 23, which I invite everyone of you to attend. Tom Bowley: I think there's going to be a tremendous amount of information that you may not be aware of. Tom Bowley: Some of it might be a refresher even for those of you who follow me closely. Some of this is probably going to be new
Tom Bowley: and so I want to make sure that everyone has a a chance to see some of this information. So Tom Bowley: please plan to join on a Friday. We'll make sure all of our members get room instructions, so mostly what I want to make sure is the folks of you that are not members at earnings beats Tom Bowley: that you sign up. You do need to register to attend this event.
Tom Bowley: So let me just Tom Bowley: hold on 1 s. Tom Bowley: Okay, here's our website over at earnings beats. This is the event. I'm talking about market vision 2,023. You need to register. There's no credit card required. It's completely free, and even if you can't attend Saturday live, we'll send out a recording Tom Bowley: of the event that'll be timestamped. You can kind of go in and look at what you want. Tom Bowley: or whenever you can, whenever you have time, and it's convenient, try to make this as easy as possible. Obviously no cost. So you don't have to worry about an expense, and it's you can watch, or you can watch, live, or the recording Tom Bowley: in the comfort of your own home, or at Starbucks, or wherever you happen to be. So, it's really a a great event. It's one of the ways we give back. It's a huge event. We have 3 folks joining me from stock charts. Dave Keller.
Tom Bowley: who, you probably know is the host of the final bar. If you follow any of the shows over at Stockcharts TV Dave is the is the stock charts.com chief market strategist, good friend of mine. And then, like I said, host of the final bar over there. Tom Bowley: he's going to share some interesting information. Also joyous to Kempinar. If you've ever used the Rrg. Charts. Tom Bowley: which is a fascinating visual of how the sector rotation is taking place. Julius created that Tom Bowley: he's going to be there on Saturday to talk about sector rotation, and how important that is going into 2,023. And then my good friend Grayson Rose also will be joining Grayson When I first started over at stock Charts many years ago. Tom Bowley: Grayson Was the host for one of my shows, and so we had a lot of banner going back and forth on our shows, and got to be really good friends. And Grayson's a great technician as well, very, very disciplined in his approach to the market, and that's one of his strength, for sure.
Tom Bowley: He's going to be there on Saturday. We've got a great line up Tremendous information at 0 cost. You need to be there. Tom Bowley: Make sure you you do click on that link where you can register. Also, it takes a name and an email address. And while you're there scroll down, you can read some of the information about us, what we're gonna be talking about our bios and so forth. Tom Bowley: Also Tom Bowley: check out Tom Bowley: If you haven't been following me for very long, check out this recording this video recording, we where we talk about, Well, actually, it's more of an audio recording. But this is where I've given some prior forecast for the last 3 market vision events. I think you might be surprised Tom Bowley: how accurate those 3 were. Tom Bowley: I don't do anything special. I don't have a crystal ball. Tom Bowley: I just combine everything. I look at the fundamentals being a former practicing. Cpa.
Tom Bowley: I look at the fundamentals. I look at the tacticals. I am a historian of the market, as you know, and as i'll show you. when I analyze the Qqq. For you in just a couple of minutes. I love to analyze Tom Bowley: love, to analyze it's probably my favorite thing to do with the stock market. I'd really do everything I can to try and figure out what makes it tick. Tom Bowley: anyway? Combine that I didn't throw in some perspective, and just some plain old common sense. Tom Bowley: It's hard to step back from the market when you're being told every single day how bad things are. Tom Bowley: It's really hard to take a step back Tom Bowley: and say, how bad are they? A year ago, who was telling you how bad the market was? Nobody. We were at an all time high. We, you know, a bunch of cheerleading going on. Tom Bowley: I said. We had a cyclical bear market on our doorstep
Tom Bowley: 20 to 25% in 6 months, 3 to 6 months. Tom Bowley: We went down 23% in 5 and a half months Tom Bowley: again. I don't have a crystal ball. But I can I pay attention to what matters in the market? I'll give you my forecast 2,023 forecast on Saturday Tom Bowley: completely free. Tom Bowley: Anyway, check that video out. I think you'll be impressed. Some of the calls from the past few years. Tom Bowley: Anyhow, all that takes place this Saturday. I really want to make sure you're signed up. If you're not already again, you don't have to be there. Live.
Tom Bowley: If you have something else planned, sign up and get a copy of the recording. Tom Bowley: All right enough of that. Tom Bowley: what I did here. I've got the the major indices up here Tom Bowley: showing you Tom Bowley: the action on Tom Bowley: Tuesday to open up the year. Tom Bowley: and you can see it. Wasn't a particularly good day. I mean the Nasdaq. You see down 0 point 7, 5 once again leading to the downside. That was a theme in the fourth quarter, especially last year.
Tom Bowley: and it continues or it continued into yesterday, so we'll see whether or not that's something that we have to continue dealing with. But for right now we absolutely do Tom Bowley: but down here on the bottom, what I did is I pulled up 5 of the worst performing industry groups in the last quarter. Tom Bowley: These are the groups. If you're wondering why the Nasdaq is underperforming
Tom Bowley: the S. And P. 500 and the Dow Jones. Tom Bowley: It's a lot of it has to do with these 5 groups. Tom Bowley: You've got automobiles Tom Bowley: again. Yesterday Tom Bowley: there was some mixture. 3 of these were down. 2. We're up. Excuse me Tom Bowley: 1 s.
Tom Bowley: Okay, Sorry about that. That was a little cough break. Tom Bowley: anyway. Tom Bowley: 2 of these were up yesterday. Internet Stocks broadline retail, Amazon rebounded. Tom Bowley: we saw some some decent movement, the Internet. Space as well.
Tom Bowley: and by the way Internet's love the month of January. It would be really unbelievable. Given how week they were in 2,022, if they just suddenly come back to life in January. Tom Bowley: but historically can't rule it out Tom Bowley: because that is the best month of the year for Internet stocks, and it's the best month of the year for the Nasdaq. Tom Bowley: since 1,972 we're talking 50 years. Tom Bowley: The Nasdaq Tom Bowley: has average gaining. I don't have the number right in front of me. I want to say it's like 2 point, 3 or 2.4%. Tom Bowley: That's been the average gain in the month of January, since 1,972, Tom Bowley: the S. And P. 500 by contrast, has gained just over 1%
Tom Bowley: the month of January over that same time frame. So the Nasdaq goes into this year Tom Bowley: underperforming Tom Bowley: really badly. Tom Bowley: And yet now we go into January, and this is when we start to see the Nasdaq perform better than the S. And P. I'm. Just pointing it out. I'm not saying it's going to happen. It hasn't happened every year, and certainly we're not looking technically like it's going to happen right now. But that's the history. I want you to be aware of it as we go into January. Tom Bowley: All right. Tom Bowley: But look at the last 3 months I mean, automobiles have been horrific. Tom Bowley: If you've been following Tesla.
Tom Bowley: or if you own Tesla, you know this has been a very, very weak stock in a very, very weak group. Tom Bowley: honestly, for the long term, I think it's setting up as a great opportunity, but in the short term I don't know how much lower it goes. I wrote an article recently Tom Bowley: on Tesla Tom Bowley: that it broke down out of a head and shoulder pattern from about the $200 level.
Tom Bowley: and when it did that it measures down to roughly 100, Tom Bowley: and we've gone from 200 to almost 100 in a very, very short period of time. I think Tesla was down to 104, and change that it's low yesterday. Rally back to 108 Tom Bowley: Currently we are seeing. I didn't even talk about this. I don't think, at the open, but futures are Tom Bowley: higher this morning. Tom Bowley: we still got Tom Bowley: another, you know. 20 min to go, or whatever, till we get to the opening bell. Tom Bowley: But last check dow futures up 125 S. And p 500 features up nearly 20, Tom Bowley: and the Nasdaq features up 75. So on a percentage basis it does look like the Nasdaq is going to get off to a better start. By the way, we saw that yesterday
Tom Bowley: the Nasdaq was up more at the open. Tom Bowley: and during the day it actually shifted by the close it it under perform the other indices. That's intraday rotation away from the Nasdaq. That's not good. Tom Bowley: So again we're gapping up today. It looks like we'll probably open up a little bit stronger on the Nasdaq. Can it hold it Tom Bowley: the Us. 10 year treasury of down 1212 basis points this morning. 3.6, 7. So we're seeing a big drop in yields again over the last couple of days.
Tom Bowley: You would think that would spur the Nasdaq, and I can tell you my biggest mistake in 2,022. Personally, I did really. Well, in the first half of the year, because I was bearish. Tom Bowley: Market went down Tom Bowley: even when we bounced. I said it Wasn't going to last market was going. It just looked like all my signals were saying. We were going down. Tom Bowley: and we did. All the way through June. I called a bottom in June, and I changed my trading strategies when I call a bottom, and I think the markets going back up Tom Bowley: I I don't short period. Tom Bowley: and because I believed rates were going to come down. I focus most of my attention in the second half of the year on the Qq. If I've done it on the spider, I've done a lot better. Tom Bowley: But I focused on the Qqq. Because again that's what my signals were telling me. But what actually happened
Tom Bowley: was rates came down. That should be a huge Tom Bowley: bonus for Nasdaq stocks. The high grow high growers, rapid growers on the Nasdaq should do much better in a declining environment. Tom Bowley: Well, when the when rates started dropping Tom Bowley: early, like back in June, July. Tom Bowley: We did see the Nasdaq perform well.
Tom Bowley: and I did pretty good, you know, person I did well through about Tom Bowley: beginning, maybe even maybe it was later in August, probably around the Jackson whole speech, and from there to the end of the year I did not do well in the market personally trading. Tom Bowley: because I was always trying to trade the Qq. And what happened is, rates ended up going back up, and I was pretty. Tom Bowley: you know. It was okay.
Tom Bowley: for probably a a little while I was out of the market a lot. But when Rates started coming back down. Tom Bowley: I was in the Qqq. And I traded it pretty heavy and with leverage a few, several times, probably in the fourth quarter. Tom Bowley: and I lost pretty much every time, and the reason was rates came down. Tom Bowley: But it didn't Tom Bowley: result in outperformance by the Qqq. The qqqube badly underperformed
Tom Bowley: in the fourth quarter, really a shock to me. I'm still surprised. Tom Bowley: and it's something i'm thinking about as we go into Saturday. Tom Bowley: trying to figure out.
Tom Bowley: You know my forecast what I believe. Tom Bowley: based on the way things have been trading. And what does that mean? Tom Bowley: You know. Tom Bowley: What does it mean? That rates came down and the Nasdaq continued to underperform.
Tom Bowley: We don't typically see that Tom Bowley: i'll talk more about that on Saturday, anyhow. These were the groups in the second half or the fourth quarter, I should say, and most of these groups tend to perform well in the fourth quarter. By the way. Tom Bowley: they did not in 2,022, I mean you can see them. Tom Bowley: These were the last 3 months right here 3 months, 6 months, 5 months, whatever it is Tom Bowley: and there's your Amazon effect in the broadline retail. There's your Tesla effect. Here's your apple effect in the computer hardware group. Tom Bowley: Here's maybe a little bit of Google and some of the other Internet stocks. Meta platforms. Tom Bowley: You know those stocks that got hit in the fourth quarter they did start to rebound. You can see that they actually had a higher, low
Tom Bowley: at the end of 2,022 than where they were back at the beginning of November of 2,022. Tom Bowley: So we did see some strength there, and then media agencies, also very, very weak over the last 4 or 5 months. So it was pretty consistent. Tom Bowley: I mean the S. And P. Went down, but it held up. Tom Bowley: So let me just say this, and I will go a little bit more than 15 min this morning. Tom Bowley: feel. I'm feeling okay so far. Tom Bowley: But let me just say Tom Bowley: that, you know when you're looking at Tom Bowley: the major Tom Bowley: the highest market cap companies like apple.
Tom Bowley: like Tesla, like Nvidia, like Amazon. Tom Bowley: When these companies are all underperforming. Tom Bowley: it should drag Tom Bowley: the S. And P. 500 down to New Lows Tom Bowley: apple, set a new, low. Tesla set a new, low. Nvidia set a new, low
Tom Bowley: Amazon set a new low. Tom Bowley: All these Tom Bowley: big cap companies, the ones that are most heavily influencing the direction of the S. And P. 500 all went to New Lows, and the S. And P. Did not Tom Bowley: now. I know. Some of you know that I talk about sustainability ratios, and from the questions I've received, especially in the second half of last year. Tom Bowley: I think you misunderstand. Some of you misunderstand the way I use those sustainability ratios. Tom Bowley: let me. Tom Bowley: I'm I'm going to move into that here in just a second. Here's the 10 Year Treasury. You let me get you an update.
Tom Bowley: So this is where we are right now again rolling back over below the moving averages. Tom Bowley: Now i'm starting to get lose my voice a little bit. I think i'm getting too excited here. Tom Bowley: so I will cut it a little bit short. But what I want to do is I want to show you. Tom Bowley: Let's pull up the S. And P. 500, and i'll just pull up a couple of these
Tom Bowley: sustainability ratios. Tom Bowley: let's go with. Tom Bowley: We'll go with the Qq. Tom Bowley: Spider.
Tom Bowley: Let's go with Tom Bowley: excel y xlp. Tom Bowley: You can only imagine what that looks like Xy, heavily influenced by Tom Bowley: Amazon and Tesla. So that's going to be an ugly. Tom Bowley: but we'll look at it, and then let's look at Tom Bowley: Iwf iwd. That's the large cap growth versus large cap value. Etfs Tom Bowley: all right, and let's go back.
Tom Bowley: Let's do 2 years here. Tom Bowley: Just so we get the last couple of years. Tom Bowley: so the S. And P. 21 great year, 2,022 bad year. Tom Bowley: pretty easy Tom Bowley: Qq. Q versus a. Spider, I mean the Qqq. Held up. They kind of went hand in hand through most of 2,021. But you can see the Nasdaq badly lagged in 2,022, Tom Bowley: the Xy. Xlp. Was breaking out Tom Bowley: late in 2,021. But when we set that final high on the S. And P. It was down.
Tom Bowley: And if you recall from last year hold on 1 s. Tom Bowley: Okay. So if you recall from last year one of the reasons, not the only reason, but one of the reasons Tom Bowley: that I felt the market was topping Tom Bowley: was that the S. And P. 500 was going higher. But the stocks, the primary stocks that helped to lead
Tom Bowley: the Qqq hire were starting to roll over. Tom Bowley: So some of the big names, the Xy versus the Xlp. That's Amazon and Tesla Tom Bowley: primarily leading that move to the downside on a relative basis to this consumer stay post group in the month of December of 2,021 staples went up. 10% Tom Bowley: discretionary was flat. Tom Bowley: and the S. And P. 500 went up. That is, I can't tell you how rare that is. Tom Bowley: but it's a major warning sign the S. And P. 500 breaking out with leadership from defensive areas from value-oriented areas.
Tom Bowley: But notice what i'm doing. I'm looking to see if the breakout in the S. And P. 500 is Tom Bowley: is sustainable Tom Bowley: to the upside, and my signals here were saying, No. Tom Bowley: it was not. Every one of them were really turning lower by a significant amount. They were not continuing to go higher. Tom Bowley: Now, what a lot of folks are Tom Bowley: saying right now is. Well, look at your ratios. They they're going to new lows. Tom Bowley: But, my! It's not whether they go to new lows. It's whether the S. And P. Goes to a new low.
Tom Bowley: I'm. Trying to determine if the move on the S. And P. Tom Bowley: Breaking down to a new low is sustainable or not. Tom Bowley: So when these ratios would come into play Tom Bowley: would be when we set a new low. Tom Bowley: If you go back to the low closes at the beginning of October, right here, You. Tom Bowley: The Qqq. And the Spider had not broken down Tom Bowley: here.
Tom Bowley: The Xy Xlp. Had not broken down Tom Bowley: the Iwf. The Iwd had not broken down. There were no signs at that time Tom Bowley: that the S. And P. 500 move to the downside was sustainable. Tom Bowley: Then we rally back. Now these you can see, these ratios are continuing to go down.
Tom Bowley: Well, what's that telling me? It's telling me Tom Bowley: that Tom Bowley: money is rotating away from some of the key growth areas. No doubt about it. There's no denying that I'm not trying to. Tom Bowley: to, you know. Tom Bowley: Forecast this rosy picture on the stock market right now, because Tom Bowley: the S. And P. 500 until these large cap stocks start to turn back up. Tom Bowley: It's going to put a lot of weight on the spider to try to go higher.
Tom Bowley: But you have to consider the flip side. Tom Bowley: If all of these Tom Bowley: high, heavy market cap weighted stocks like Apple Tom Bowley: and Tesla and Nvidia and Amazon and Google and Amd and all these stocks, Microsoft, even though Microsoft's been doing better. Tom Bowley: Excuse me than some of these others. Tom Bowley: All of these stocks have been going down. Tom Bowley: How is the S. And P. Going up? If the heaviest weighted stocks are going down? Tom Bowley: Well, it's telling me that all the non heaviest weighted stocks Tom Bowley: are exploding to the upside.
Tom Bowley: and i'll tell you something real quick. Here Tom Bowley: I do a. We do a lot of research at earnings beats for our members. We create a lot of chart list using the stock charge platform, and we provide Tom Bowley: those chart lists to our members to use in their trading. Tom Bowley: And so I have a strong earnings chart list which just features companies that have beaten Wall Street estimates as to revenues and earnings per share Tom Bowley: in the last Tom Bowley: quarter. Tom Bowley: That's it. That's filter number one. Then they have to be liquid, so they have to trade so many shares a day, and then number 3. They have to be somewhat compelling on a technical basis.
Tom Bowley: Either they're part of a strong group Tom Bowley: or they are a strong stock within a group. Tom Bowley: or maybe they've just been down trending. They've been horrible, and they had a better than expected report, and they got a gap up something that maybe suggests that there's a character change on the chart. Those are the reasons they go on the strong earnings chart list. Tom Bowley: Okay. Tom Bowley: After I do the strong earnings chart list. I then do a strong future earnings chart list. Tom Bowley: and the way I calculate that I think now I don't have it on this account. I got a couple of stock chirps accounts. I was going to show you the Tom Bowley: the scan that I use that I run. But basically what I do is I go back. I look at the the scooter
Tom Bowley: right now. If a scooter is above 75 right now. Tom Bowley: then it would qualify for the strong future earnings, because relative strength is strong. If relative strength is strong, my thinking is well. Maybe the markets, anticipating strong results in the future. That's why the stock is showing a high scooter score stock charts, technical rank. By the way, Sctr. Tom Bowley: that's what a scooter is, anyway. but I also will go back and say, Well, you know Tom Bowley: what are the what do the industry groups look like? Tom Bowley: Because if I've got a really strong industry group.
Tom Bowley: then i'll take the scooters over 75. But if I have a really poor industry group like right now. Autos. Tom Bowley: The only way in auto Tom Bowley: could get on to Tom Bowley: my strong future and chartless is, if their scooter is over 90. In other words, I need to have really strong leaders in a poor industry group. Tom Bowley: and the reason I mentioned this is because I go through and analyze all 104 Tom Bowley: industry groups before I do the strong future earnings chart list, and I decide which ones look strong versus Tom Bowley: the S. And P. 500. Let me see if I can pull that up Tom Bowley: of the relative strength. I tried before the before I did the show, and it wasn't, allowing me to to pull some of these up. But let's see what we get here.
Tom Bowley: Okay. Tom Bowley: So right now, this is the Dow Jones, Us. Computer services index, divided by the S. And P. 500. Tom Bowley: And this is the relative chart Down below is the Tom Bowley: actual chart. You can see that the computer Services group's been going down the Tom Bowley: But in November we got all the way back to the August High. That was good. Tom Bowley: And so what we're seeing is on a relative basis. This group is showing strength. Tom Bowley: Rotating money is rotating into this group.
Tom Bowley: That's how you outperform the S. And P. 500. So when I get a group that's got strong. Tom Bowley: you know the relative strength line is above the 20 day and the 50 day. Tom Bowley: and Tom Bowley: the relative ppo is above 0. I consider that a strong group. Tom Bowley: Now, if I look at something like semiconductors, we'll see the opposite.
Tom Bowley: You can see price. The relative price. Action is below the 20 day, and it's below the 50 day. Tom Bowley: and it, or actually 1520 week, and 50 week. Tom Bowley: and the Ppo relative PP is below 0. Tom Bowley: So this is considered one of the week. So if you're a semiconductor, the only way you get on the strong future earnings chart list Tom Bowley: is Tom Bowley: to have a scooter score over 90.
Tom Bowley: If you're in a strong group, you can get on this list by having a scooter score over 75. In other words, if you're a pretty good stock, but you're in a really good industry. I want that stock. Tom Bowley: But if you're a decent stock and you're in a horrible industry. Tom Bowley: I'm not interested. You gotta be a real leader
Tom Bowley: before I would be interested. Tom Bowley: And so I go through, and I analyze this every time I update the strong future earnings chart list. I look at more all 104 Tom Bowley: industry groups, and I literally go down and see. And I say, okay, software is negative. Tom Bowley: AI is positive. This is electronic equipment.
Tom Bowley: computer hardware is negative. Tom Bowley: and I and this one's positive. Some of them are a little, you know. They're hovering right around the 20 and the 50, and they're all kind of together. Tom Bowley: let me see if I can find one of those for you that you know. Really just Tom Bowley: It's hard to say like this one right here.
Tom Bowley: you know this is Hotels price action just went below the 50, but the 20 still above the 50, and the ppo is still positive. Tom Bowley: Well, if the last time I looked at it it was positive I probably would just leave it positive, because to me it's not showing enough signs that it's definitely Tom Bowley: it's kind of like, if you watch the Nfl. And they do a replay. Tom Bowley: You're only supposed to overturn the call, if it's indisputable evidence like you cannot make a mistake. Of course they botched that up all the time. But that's a different story. Anyway. Tom Bowley: When I look at this, I don't see indisputable evidence that this is a weak group. I still see a positive ppo 20 still above the 50, I mean. Look here, we went below. When he shot right back up here we went below, shot right back up.
Tom Bowley: so I think, as long as the Ppo is above the 0 line, and the price action is close to these moving averages. I'm going to keep this as strong. All right bottom line. Why, I was going down this whole rat hole here Tom Bowley: when I did this. I just updated all the chartless for our members. We just sent that out yesterday. Tom Bowley: When I did this Tom Bowley: 12 industry groups went from week to strong. Tom Bowley: Do you know how many industry groups I had that went from strong to week.
Tom Bowley: One. Tom Bowley: the only group that went from strong to week Tom Bowley: was computer hardware. Tom Bowley: And you can kind of see the last time I did it, which was probably a month little over a month ago.
Tom Bowley: Probably we were below. The 20 was still above Tom Bowley: the the 50, the you know. We were still kind of sitting there, and i'm like I give it the benefit of the doubt. Tom Bowley: Well, when I looked at it this time there's no benefit of the doubt. Now we are below the 20, which is below the 15, the relative ppos. So now computer hardware goes Tom Bowley: to the downside. Tom Bowley: But you've got other groups that are really strengthening in this market.
Tom Bowley: You can't overlook that Tom Bowley: aerospace. Look at aerospace where it was a month ago or 2 months ago. 3 months ago. It was kind of like to nowhere, you know no Man's Land. Tom Bowley: Now. Tom Bowley: Aerospace is now trading at its highest relative level to the S. And P. 500 since. Right after the pandemic there was a rally in May Tom Bowley: where we got up to this relative level, and we just went through it. It took us Tom Bowley: to almost 3 years Tom Bowley: for aerospace to break out. That's why I wrote an article recently in the Don't ignore this chart blog talking about Boeing. Tom Bowley: and how I think Boeing could have a good year. And this is the reason why Aerospace is going up.
Tom Bowley: and if I pull up Boeing Tom Bowley: I am making it the full 30 min, By the way, so I guess that's encouraging. But if I pull up boeing actually, that's versus the snp, let's do it versus it's Peer Group. Tom Bowley: Look at Boeing the last 3 months. Tom Bowley: So aerospace is taken off. Tom Bowley: and Boeing is the one of the leaders in aerospace Tom Bowley: That's a stock that you want to be thinking about, or be interested in leading stocks in leading industry groups. Tom Bowley: Anyway, i'm going to end it with that while I still have some voice. I don't want to take it any further. That's just a mark. It's going to open here in 30 s.
Tom Bowley: Oh, I wanted to show you the Qqq manipulation. I can't go yet. Never mind, we're going to talk for a couple of more minutes. So here's the 2,001 Tom Bowley: Qq. And here's the breakdown. This is what I did when I talk about. I like to analyze. Tom Bowley: I went down. I went back every single day for the last 2 years, and I got the price from the hourly chart
Tom Bowley: on the queue queue with the opening bell. Tom Bowley: the 10 o'clock price, the 11 o'clock Price, the 2 Pm. Price and the 4 Pm. Price, the closing bill. Tom Bowley: and I got that for every day, and I broke down the trading of the Qq. Tom Bowley: By opening gaps. Tom Bowley: So if we take the opening gap Tom Bowley: from January second, January third, January the fourth, and so on all year long, and we add up all the gaps up and down. Tom Bowley: Here was the net Tom Bowley: $52 and 66 cents, so the Qq. Q. Gains, 86 or $87 from the beginning of the year to the end of the year.
Tom Bowley: Fifty- of it was on the gap. Tom Bowley: In other words, if you were not holding overnight you weren't as you weren't, participating as much. Tom Bowley: The the market Tom Bowley: was in a good mood, and we were seeing Gap ups. Market makers were gapping up, and it was forcing folks to buy at higher prices Tom Bowley: from the open to 10 am. It went up $20, Tom Bowley: 10 at 10 to 11 down, $15, 11 to 2 up 11 and 2 Pm. To 4. Pm. That should be a plus sign. It was up to 18. So if you add up, or maybe let me double check that
Tom Bowley: 2,001. I'm just looking back at my excel spreadsheet. Tom Bowley: Yeah, it was up to 18. So when you add these down. it will give you 86.6, 5, Tom Bowley: or hopefully it will Tom Bowley: all right. So essentially, when you're going up, you're gapping up, and you're trading up in the morning Tom Bowley: 72 of the $86, Tom Bowley: and that was a sign of a bull market Tom Bowley: look at what happened in 2,022 the Qq. Lost 81 points during the year. Tom Bowley: so basically just flipped from where we were, we went up. We went back down we gave it all the way. Tom Bowley: Opening gaps were down. 24
Tom Bowley: open to 10 am. Is down $64. That's $88 down Tom Bowley: by 10 am. Tom Bowley: So think about that for a second. If you'd got into the market every single day in 2,022 at 10 am. Tom Bowley: And you sold it to close.
Tom Bowley: you would have made money Tom Bowley: Not so much in the first 5 months of the year. That was a true distribution period. I'm going to talk about that more on Saturday. Tom Bowley: but the first 5 and a half months a year there was pretty much selling all day long. Tom Bowley: Once we went to this new low in June. This was one of the reasons why I call to bottom in June. Tom Bowley: Money. Look, it was mostly gaps. Look at these huge gaps going down. You see how it's much different here. There's a lot of big red candles just all day selling Tom Bowley: here Tom Bowley: all of a sudden we're starting to see these big gap downs, and then look at these hollow candles forming, coming off the lows. Tom Bowley: Then you move back down couple of gap downs we hold, and then hollow candles Tom Bowley: from June on. I've got spectacular numbers again. I'll share on Saturday.
Tom Bowley: But just look at the overall for the year Tom Bowley: down 24 opening gap down 64 Tom Bowley: first half hour down, another 20, from 10 to 11, and down 32 from 11 to 2, Tom Bowley: and up $62 in the final 2 h of the day if you bought at 2 o'clock every day the Qq. Tom Bowley: In 2,022 Tom Bowley: and you sold it 4 o'clock. You just held for those 2 h got out you had no risk overnight. Tom Bowley: You'd have made $61 Tom Bowley: on the Qqq. Tom Bowley: Now, the average queue queue price during the year Tom Bowley: was probably somewhere around 320, Tom Bowley: $61, you that's like 20% gains. Tom Bowley: I find that fascinating. Tom Bowley: And in an upmarket Tom Bowley: we hard, You know. We went up 18 of the $86 in the last 2 h, or, you know, last 2 h a day.
Tom Bowley: But here we went up $62 in a year, where we went down to 81. Tom Bowley: If that doesn't seem like something fishy to you, I don't know how to explain it. Tom Bowley: I don't know how to explain it any better. Tom Bowley: Market makers control the action, and we are subject to all the news, all the manipulation, all the folks telling us every morning how bad things are. Tom Bowley: and then we see those opening gaps. And what do we do?
Tom Bowley: We sell. Tom Bowley: we panic? Tom Bowley: What do you do when you're losing a lot of money Tom Bowley: you sell. Tom Bowley: Then we go down to these lows, and you know what happens at these lows.
Tom Bowley: The put call ratio spikes to a point where everybody's betting on the put side. And when that happens we get rallies. Tom Bowley: Or how about option expiration? We're going to talk about all of these things. I've got 2 sessions on Saturday. You want to be there. I'm telling you you want to be there anyway. I did make it the full Tom Bowley: 30 min. Actually, we're 35 min in. So let's see what the market is doing. Tom Bowley: we got a slight higher open the Nasdaq, which had leadership at the open already. You can see it's starting to deteriorate again.
Tom Bowley: Now I haven't looked at any stocks, but probably some of those big Cap stocks got gap up, and maybe they're pulling back here a little bit. I don't know. Tom Bowley: or maybe the future is weakened, and you know they were just happen to be much lower before we open. But anyway, that's what we got all right. I'm gonna call it quits. Thankfully. My voice held up pretty well today, better than yesterday. Actually. when I did the recording for stock charts. Tom Bowley: Tomorrow i'll do another show over at stock charts. TV starts at 9 am. All you have to do is go to stock charts, click on stock charge, TV. You don't have to be a member of stock charts. By the way to listen into their shows that this is a free part of their site.
Tom Bowley: So you can go in and check out my show at 9 am tomorrow morning. Everybody have a great day. Happy trading, especially Happy New Year. Everybody have a great year.
2023-01-11 00:31
