Weekly Forex Forecast (12/09/22) EurUsd / XauUsd + Forex Trading Plan! [HD]

hey traders john fortune here with this week's  weekly forex forecast i hope you're having a   fantastic weekend last week before the ecb meeting  i did tweet out that i believed if the ecb went 75   basis points last week we could see a near-term  top in the dollar they did go 75 basis points   and we did see a sell-off and it does look like we  may be running out of steam in the dxy near term   i do think that the dxy is going to head  quite a bit higher but it does look like   it may be topping out near term over the next  few weeks and we're going to go through that   in today's video okay so let's have a quick look  at the economic calendar because there are some   important macro events going on which i believe  are going to determine the next move not just   in the dollar but in markets in general we did  have interest rate decisions out for australia   and canada last week pretty much as expected  it's the ecb meeting i want to point to last   week is the most important and this is because  i want to paint a bit of a macro picture here   for you we did have the ecb raising 75 basis  points and we discussed in last week's video   that that is not necessarily super helpful because  a lot of the inflation is driven by energy and on   the supply side as opposed to the demand side  however let's have a quick think about the   overall macro picture which has driven the  us dollar to the current highs that it's in   we have up until recently had a very dovish ecb  we've had uscpi coming out over and above what was   expected so it's coming out hotter than expected  and this has forced the fed to be very very   hawkish those three things combined have driven  the dollar to the highs that we've recently seen   and if you look at the recent data and take the  ecb meeting last week we have two of those three   main drivers which have started to subside in  other words uscpi has started to come out lower   than expected and the ecb is now getting  more hawkish than it has been previously   the only thing out of those three left is the fed  which is still being very hawkish however if we go   and have a look to the data coming up next week  we do have very important cpi data coming out   on tuesday the last time this came out it came out  lower than expected and it's actually forecasted   to be deflationary or to deflate so negative month  on month next week now although the fed even in   the meeting last week after the ecb remained very  very hawkish and i think it's unlikely we're going   to see them pivot until we start to see very  bad employment data coming out if we do get   a negative cpi reading month or month and perhaps  even more negative than expected this is going to   be dollar bearish and it will be a sign that one  out of two scenarios which is keeping the fed   ultra hawkish in other words high inflation low  unemployment one of those two which is the high   inflation may actually be peaking rolling over  and this increases the probability of the fed   softening its approach so just to take this back  quickly we had in the dollar run up a dovish ecb   inflation coming out hotter than expected  in the us and a very hawkish fed to combat   that and as of last week and potentially heading  into this week we may actually see that overall   macro picture almost reversing because if we're  going to see the ecb now getting more hawkish   we're going to start to see cpi coming out  lower than expected and possibly decreasing   then you may also get the fed being less hawkish  and this was why i tweeted out i believe we could   see a near term top in the dollar and that  really is primarily in my opinion based on   people who are in dollar long positions actually  just booking profits so very important data coming   out next week in terms of the cpi data out of  the us i'm going to be treating the u.s pairs   next week essentially as interest rate decisions  i'm going to be waiting for this to come out first   and then i'm going to be looking to potentially  trade the us dollar pairs after the cpi data   but as we're going to see as we go through the  video that i think there are actually better pairs   next week outside of the dollar pairs and there's  a good chance that i don't trade the dollar pairs   at all next week and the main reason for that as  well is that if we skip ahead one more week you   can see we have fomc coming up september the 21st  we know that when you have these big interest rate   decisions very often the currencies don't do too  much the week before or the week of and so if we   have a meeting from fomc on september 21st this  in my opinion just adds weight to the idea that   dollar balls are going to start to book some  profits before this and this could actually bring   the dxy down over the next couple of weeks at  least into this meeting okay so let's have a look   at the scores for the coming week and the first  thing to note here is that the us dollar which was   the strongest last week at plus three actually  above plus three has now reduced its score to   two so it is down minus one and although the  dxy is strong the best long signals are when   you have a currency with a strong or a positive  one month forward looking score which is getting   more positive and we have that this week with  the swiss franc and the swiss franc not only sits   as the best long heading to this week but it  also has momentum it's one of the best signs we   can get from the scorecards a stronger currency in  terms of its one month forward-looking probability   score getting stronger the dxy although it sits  in second place with cpi data next week with   fomc on the 21st the following week and with the  us dollar shedding a whole point and going from   three to two all of these things make me very wary  about dollar positions over the next two weeks and   it adds more weight to this idea that i do think  everybody who has been in a long dollar position   heading in cbi heading into fomc is probably going  to want to book some of those profits and this   is likely to lead to a near-term correction in the  dollar so i will be looking at potentially trading   these as news trades next week with cpi data  we'll go through that when we look at the markets   themselves the next thing to note here is that the  euro has actually strengthened somewhat and now we   have the euro and the dollar both in the positive  side of the scorecards what does that mean this   is a sign that market opportunities are drying up  and it's a sign to start to restrict your trading   or take less risk and if you've made some good  profits over the last month or so heading into   fomc it is a good policy in my opinion to look  to reduce risk take less trades and look really   only to trade the best market opportunities or the  best pairs best setups available so that is what   i'll be doing heading into next week and likely  into fomc the following week as well we do have   the japanese yen week and getting weaker in the  scorecards and we also have the aussie week and   getting weaker in the scorecards so those are two  good shorts this week that i'm going to be looking   at and to cut a long story short here i'm going to  be looking at primarily swiss franc long positions   i'm going to be looking at canadian long positions  vis-a-vis the japanese yen versus the pound we're   also going to look at versus the aussie and  the new zealand for example aussie frank to the   downside new zealand frank to the downside pound  frank to the downside and frankie into the upside   and also aussie cad to the downside new zealand  cad to the downside pound cad to the downside   cadiente to the upside and on top of that we will  also look at a couple of potential opportunities   in dollar pairs on the cpi data and the very final  thing to note here is that the pound has come off   of -4 oversold for the first time this week that  does usually as many of you will know precede   a correction in other words if the pound has been  very bearish the first time it comes off oversold   you usually see strength following that well if  that's going to be the case that is another sign   indirectly that we may see a correction or  pull back in the dollar heading into fmc   okay so let's have a look at the individual  currencies before we move on to the markets   themselves starting with the dxy now the  first thing i want to say about the dxy is   don't confuse a near-term top which is generally  speaking just a profit taking opportunity   for a massive short opportunity this is not  a massive short opportunity the dxy as it   currently stands is in a full-blown bull market  and what i'm talking about leading to fomc over   the next two weeks is the risk of a correction and  therefore dollar long positions underperforming   so that really has two implications if you're  already long in dollar pairs it might be a good   time to book some profits and if you're not long  maybe you should reconsider dollar long positions   into fomc and look elsewhere that's really what a  potential near-term top in an overall bull market   is it's not an amazing short opportunity i've  also left on the previous target that we took   out i don't usually bring these back but i just  left this on to visually show you that all of   this is actually happening right at a previous  significant resistance area which the dxy is   struggling to get past and it actually failed  to break above this last week so this is why dxy   positions generally speaking are off the table  we'll look at a couple down here for the cpi   news trades if they materialize but i think there  are better markets outside of the dollar now and   that'll probably be the case heading into fmc next  is the euro again not a very bullish chart in fact   this is a very very bearish chart and the overall  outlook for the eurozone is also very bearish   and i do think the eurozone is going to head into  recession before the us and i do think we're going   to see euro dollar falling further however  leading into fomc the risk is that we get a   continued correction and perhaps even a pullback  and another re-test of the 1.03750 because this   is in a bear market but it's a bear market which  may be slightly running out of steam especially if   the dollar rolls over this pretty much makes this  not a fantastic opportunity in my opinion again   i'm not really interested in euro pairs i will  look at euro dollar outside of that again i think   there are better market opportunities next is the  pound the pound is bearish and we do have momentum   to the downside we took out the target here  previously and i would not be surprised to see the   pound come down and re-test these lows i am  bearish on the pound it does have a score of   -3 but because it came off of oversold for the  first time and this generally perceives strength   even if this is just a correction near term over  the next couple of weeks as the dollar pulls back   a little bit even if that's the case it makes this  not a fantastic short or not as good a short as it   was so we will look at pound frank and i'm going  to be keeping my own pound cad next week for short   opportunities but not highlighted in gold because  the pound has come off of oversold for the first   time so i think there are better opportunities  here outside of the pound pairs as well even   though we're going to look at them swiss franc  the swiss franc is kind of neutral technically   speaking in the scorecards it is the best long  heading into next week and if we do roll over   over the next couple of weeks or we just correct  in the dxy yes the euro will benefit from that   but the swiss franc will also benefit from that  and based on the scorecards they're telling you   that the swiss franc will likely benefit even  more than the euro that's why it makes it a good   long opportunity relatively speaking so i am  interested in swiss franc long positions aussie   frank and also new zealand frank are two of my  top pairs heading into next week next is the end   we did take out the target to the downside last  week and yen short positions were good trades   this was something we highlighted in last week's  video they were good trades last week coming into   this week i am looking for the declines we do  have momentum to the downside any pullback in   the end is viewed as another opportunity to look  for shorts into the 0.0067 and this is likely  

going to take us back into the level which the boj  started to intervene in the japanese yen in 1998   when we go and look at the us dollar versus the  japanese yen we'll discuss this a little bit more   in 1998 the boj we're approaching those levels  where they intervened however it is a different   setup this time because in 1998 the federal  reserve actually sold dollars or they devalued   the dollar to help the boj intervene in the end it  seems unlikely that the federal reserve is going   to want to do that with the current situation  around inflation in the us next is the cad the cad   is technically bearish but you can see it really  lacks momentum here i mean if you compare this to   the euro this is really pretty choppy and in fact  this is kind of bearish to neutral technically   speaking in the scorecards it actually has a  plus two rating and if we are going to get a   correction in the dxy the canadian dollar will  benefit from that probably just continue to   bounce from the range bottom down here maybe  even back towards 0.78210 who knows but   this near-term bounce in the cad is going to  favor these markets vis-a-vis the aussie and the   new zealand and also the yen we're going to look  at the cad pairs after the frank pairs as some of   the best opportunities in my opinion next week  aussie dollar we came very close to the target   and after breaking this head and shoulders we've  discussed we basically came back and retested this   i am looking for this to continue down to the  target and further aussie is one of my favorite   shorts next week and finally in new zealand we  took out the target at the zero point 600 and   it may continue to correct a little bit if the dxy  does sell off however i am overall expecting this   to come down further and new zealand is also one  of my favorite shorts heading into next week okay   so let's have a look at the markets heading into  this week starting with crude oil as we always do   last week crude oil was highlighted as a good  short opportunity i did in fact short crude oil   last week we came check out the target and then  we started to reverse down after the ecb meeting   heading to this week i do think we're going to  come down further in crude oil it does strike me   that we have a long sell-off here followed by a  shallow correction followed by another move down   and now this is deep so i wouldn't be surprised  see this could even continue higher which is   actually great i like these kind of setups because  these do provide better opportunities to get   short into the target better risk to reward  because there's more distance to the target   so look for crude oil correct and i'm going to be  looking for any breakdown like this in crude oil   out of its correction out of the near-term uptrend  which is corrective move any break lower i'm going   to be looking for pullback and that's going to  be the opportunity to look for shorts once again   into the 80.62 so i do like crude oil but may  need to correct a little bit first the first forex   market here is aussie frank this is my favorite  market heading into next week we do have a head   and shoulders breakout over in this area and we  have started to decline we're now setting up a   potential bear flag so any continued correction in  this area is viewed as an opportunity to look for   a breakout i'm going to be looking down towards  the next key of support to downside the target set   0.6487 next is new zealand frank this is my  second favorite pair heading into next week   we did take out the target set previously at the  0.5904 heading into this week we are approaching   the targets what i would like to see is i'd like  to see the market pull back and any continued   correction in this area is going to be viewed as  an opportunity to look for shorts in new zealand   frank down towards the next care of support to  the downside of the target set 0.58 0.5838 next is  

frankie we took out previous targets here in frank  yen and we finished last week right at the target   of the 148.120 this wasn't added in last week we  looked at us dollar yen and this actually mirrors   essentially the move and the ending of the second  target we saw last week in us dollar yen we'll   look at that in a bit going into this week i am  still bullish on this market you may be asking   yourselves well frank was the strongest pair and  the japanese yen was one of the weakest so why is   this not higher up in the list well the reason  is because the move so far has been so steep   that we may get a bit of more of a correction  or we may get a little bit of a deep correction   which may take a week or so so this is  why i prioritize instead of the frank yen   pair at the top aussie frank new zealand frank  and it's also why i prefer aussie cad and new   zealand cad next week over cadance just because  we've already got so extended here i wouldn't   be surprised to see this correct maybe even  for a week but any correction in this market   is simply viewed as an opportunity to look for  bullish breakouts and if the market starts to   correct and then we get a breakout i'm going to be  looking at initiating longs up towards the 151.83   these markets the japanese yen markets i'm talking  about here have kind of got a little bit out of   hand uh because you can just see these markets  are just moving almost like a stock i mean this   is a currency and this is moving like a stock and  there is risk of intervention in the japanese yen   so my advice would be as it currently stands  if you're looking to trade the m pairs   better to trade them with wider stops a weekly atr  perhaps even two weeks atr because then if the boj   does intervene you're just going to get stopped  out at your stop you're not going to lose any   more than that if you take large positions in the  end pairs and you take them with very tight stops   and the boj intervenes you are unlikely to get  taken out at your stop you will get taken out   past your stop because it's a fast market you'll  get slipped and that slippage could end up costing   you even two or three times the amount you've  initially risked depending on how tight your   stop is so if you're looking to trade the empires  my advice would be to trade them with wider stops   next is pound frank pound frank was a market we  looked at to the downside last week and we came   right into the target of the 1.11190 this was  great short from last week heading into this   week any pullback in this market is viewed as an  opportunity to look for bearish reversals down   towards the next key of support to the downside  the target set at the 1.0863 now this is another   market like the yen pairs where when i look at  these key areas of support and resistance there's   just nothing but air these huge gaps between the  levels and so if you want a more conservative   target you can look for the 1.1000 next week may  take a couple of weeks to get down to the 1.0863  

not highlighted in gold here because as i said  earlier the pound has come off of oversold for   the first time so yes i'm looking at this as a  short but there are other markets here i'd prefer   to be involved with okay so the next pair we're  going to look at is aussie cad and this is looking   at the cad pairs here i do prefer the frank pairs  but any pullback in this market heading into next   week is viewed as an opportunity we've already  pulled back somewhat it's going to be viewed as an   opportunity to look for bearish breakouts maybe we  take out the top and we get a double top like this   that scenario would be an example of where i'd  be starting to look for shorts down to the next   key of support to the downside at 0.8735 next is  new zealand cad we've already started to form a   bear flag here so any continued pullback in this  market is views an opportunity to look for bearish   reversals and any brake lower is going to increase  your odds of this market continue to the downside   so any brake lower is viewed as an opportunity  to look for a pullback i'm going to be looking   at shorts into the zero point seven eight one  six next is cad gm we previously took out the   targets and we're sat here at the 109.65 the room  to the next target again is ridiculous because of   the amount of volatility we have now and also  in the past so any pullback in this market is   viewed as an opportunity to look for bullish  breakouts we correct like this and then you see   some momentum coming in that's your opportunity  to look for long positions into the 114.58 this   is very unlikely going to happen next week so if  you want a more conservative target i'd be looking   first up to the 111 and you can actually work  your way through the psychological levels here   into the one fourteen point five eight and the  final cad play we're going to look at is pound cad   we are very close to the target so i'd like to  see one of two things either we pull back and we   start to form a bit of a sideways correction  like this and this would be the opportunity   in this area to start to look for bearish reversal  and if you start see that breakout i'm going to be   looking down towards the 1.5002 if however we  take out this target and then bounce i'm going  

to be looking down towards target 2 at the 1.48310  again this is an opportunity but this is not one   of my favorite in fact out of all of these this  is my least favorite market to look at next week   and i'd much rather trade aussie frank new zealand  frank for example then poundcad next week okay so   we're going to finish by looking at the dollar  pairs as potential news opportunities but just   bear in mind i'd be more than happy not to trade  the dollar pairs at all next week if you wanted   to trade the dollar next week and we get a better  than expected cpi print in other words it comes in   let's say at minus 0.1 which is what's expected  or lower this would be bearish for the dollar it   would increase the odds of that correction into  fomc so if you really wanted to short the dollar   even though i don't think it's a great short  because it's still plus two but if you wanted   to short the dollar i would be short the dollar  versus the swiss rank because if you're going to   shorter currency which has a positive one-month  forward-looking score you'd better short it   against a currency which has an even more positive  one because that's your best opportunity at the   having that currency decline so any correction  in this market perhaps into cpi and then you get   the cpi data come out and you get momentum like  that look for a correction afterwards and then   you can look down into the 0.9470 that would be a  news position i'd be looking for if we get dollar   weakness from cpi so just bear in mind the first  market we're looking at here is on the basis of a   dollar sell-off because of cpi okay so the next  three dollar pairs we're going to look at here   are all based off of dollar strength following  cpi so you have a number of opportunities here   whereby if cpi comes out and causes the dollar  either to rally or to sell off there are a couple   of markets here you can look for opportunities  in and you might get some opportunities post cpi   in one of these markets so dollar weakness  i'll be looking towards us dollar swiss franc   to the downside if we get dollar strength then  what i'd be looking for here in aussie dollar   is if you get that dollar strength and you  see the aussie dollar selling off like this   look for the pullback post cpi and that will give  you opportunity to look for shorts into the 0.6684   you're a dollar if we do get dollar weakness i  will just leave euro dollar because this will   continue to correct like we were talking about  at the beginning of the video probably into fomc   but if cpi comes out and causes the dollar to  rally and you get the breakdown like this in euro   dollar this would be a market you can look for  post cpi for shorts into the 0.9860 and the final   dollar pair is us dollar yen this was a market  highlighted as one of the best opportunities in   last week's video and this was a fantastic long  opportunity into the second target and then we   started to sell off from that level so going into  this week if what we see is the market correct   into the cpi data and the cpi data next week  causes the dollar to rally this will again be   an opportunity to look for any pullback after cpi  data look for a move into the previous high and   then on to the 147.67 the 147.67 was the level at  which the boj intervened in the yen to prevent it  

from weakening any further in 1998 so as you get  to the 147.67 the risk of boj intervention in my   opinion increases and again i reiterate one of the  ways to safeguard yourself or soften the blow of   that if you are involved in these markets is to  have wider stops so a weekly stop based on the   weekly volatility or weekly atr or two-week atr  okay so wrapping up with gold silver and bitcoin   the gold silver ratio is really kind of neither  here nor there going into this week i do think   gold continues to outperform silver over the  longer term but right now i would say there's   not too much of a difference between whether  you're long or short gold or silver next is gold   i've highlighted gold in blue to remind you that  this may actually correct into cpi on tuesday so   don't be surprised to see gold silver and maybe  even bitcoin doing nothing and the dollar also   doing nothing into the cpi event on tuesday if  on cpi you get a break to the downside which is   dollar strength that would be an opportunity  next week to look for shorts into the 1676.87   next is silver we did have a very shallow  correction over here and now it looks like   we're getting a much deeper correction so all of  this really makes sense in terms of correction   and i would only really be looking  at trading this next week if we get   the market correct continue to correct  into the cpi data and then we get a dollar   strong move in other words a dollar rally that  would be a sell-off in silver then you could look   for a pullback and you could look for shorts once  again down to the low or onto the 16.96 if you get   the dollar selling off or weakening from the cpi  print this is likely to break higher and i would   just leave gold i would leave silver and i would  leave bitcoin next week if you get a sell-off in   the dollar from cpi i would just look at these  markets instead and last but not least we have   bitcoin now we had some strong momentum coming  into bitcoin but if i switched to a daily chart   here what's interesting is bitcoin may be one of  the keys to show us what's coming in the dollar   i have discussed previously that this is a bear  flag i am looking for the declines in bitcoin   and it did look like once we broke down from  here we were going to start the next leg down   it does now look like with this momentum that is  not what you tend to see in a bear market that is   indicative of perhaps a b wave in a much larger  correction and if this is the start of a c   wave and we're going to come up over here you can  trade bitcoin count trend if the dollar sells off   because we may be coming back here to the previous  low remember i said previously i was looking for   this previous low we just missed it and now it  would make sense if actually that was because   that was an a b and this comes into being a c  wave so i'm not a big fan of trading counter   trend but if you wanted to trade bitcoin counter  trend on a weak dollar offered the cpi print on   tuesday that would be what i would prefer to  do and i am looking for a potential c wave now   into the previous low and i think this could  actually also be the inflection point where we   see the dollar start to rally once again where  we see stocks start to sell off once again so   keep an eye on bitcoin because this could be the  indicator of the next turning point in the dollar   and also in stocks if we can come back and re-test  this with an a b and a c before the next leg down   so that is it for me for this week guys remember  cpi next week following week fomc it's likely to   be a tough two weeks in terms of trading market  opportunities are probably going to be harder to   come by with the dollar if it is going to correct  and have a lack of direction leading into fomc   so i am going a bit of a capital preservation mode  looking for the best opportunities i'm going to be   taking less trades even if i only take one or two  trades next week that's fine if they're the best   markets you don't need more than one or two trades  each week to make money so as always i hope you   enjoyed this video and if you did please let me  know by liking sharing and subscribing a big thank   to everybody who does that on a regular basis and  a big thank you to everybody who has subscribed to   the channel so far i want to wish you a fantastic  weekend and i want to wish you all the best in   your trading next week the only thing left to  say is take care and don't forget to trade safely you

2022-09-12 22:15

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