Weekly Forex Forecast (11/10/21) EurUsd / XauUsd + FULL PROCESS! [HD]
hey traders it's john fortune here this week's weekly forex forecast i hope you're having a great weekend what we're going to do in this week's weekly forex forecast is we're going to give it a slightly different look and as you can already see we have the chart set up slightly differently there's going to be less editing and there's going to be a more informal way we go through the markets here and the reason for this is because every single week i go through a process in order to pick the markets for the upcoming week but it's always done kind of behind the scenes i don't put it into the video so what i wanted to do was to start to give a more in-depth analysis of how we get to these currency pairs and show you the entire process in the weekly forex forecast and i think this is going to provide a more in-depth analysis and it's going to be more helpful to you guys so let me know in the comments if you like the new format and if you do i'll continue to do these in future as i say it will be slightly longer and slightly more informal less edited and so for anybody who wants to jump straight to the charts i'll index these in the comment the pin comment below and you can click and go straight through the charts but for everybody else who wants to see the process we go through and how we get to those markets we're going to run through that this morning so the first thing we're going to do is just have a quick look at the economic calendar we don't have to look at it for too long but we just want to see what the key data is coming out next week and how we can navigate that data and the best way to play the markets based around the data coming out next week and what the week might actually look like based on the events that we have coming up after that i'm going to provide you with the relative scores that each of the individual currencies have and this is an assessment done through spreadsheets and what i do is i score card each of the currencies after doing this relative analysis and i give them a rating for the week ahead so we can see which currencies are the best on the long side and we can see which currencies are best on the short side and we can actually pair those together now by doing that what we're going to do is we're going to isolate the markets which are most likely to trend and provide the most explosive moves in the coming week and after we've done the relative analysis and we go through the scores for the relative analysis we're going to look at the individual currencies themselves we're going to do an individual analysis and what we're going to want to do when we go through the individual currencies on their own we'll look at futures markets we're going to be matching up the individual analysis with the relative analysis and the scores that we've given the currencies and really we want both of those to match in order to have the strongest bias on those currencies either to the long side or to the short side and finally once we've got those we're going to go and look at the markets which that process points us towards because those are the forex markets we're going to be most likely to get explosive moves in next week and therefore those are the markets we want to put on our watch list and look for opportunities in those markets next week so if we start off by looking at the economic calendar for next week very quickly you can see there's just a couple of things to keep a note of we do have a u.s bank holiday on monday and when the us has a bank holiday very often the markets don't move at all monday tends to be the day that the market corrects into position for the move for the rest of the week when you have a us bank holiday on the monday it tends to skip a day and that turns into tuesday and so i wouldn't be surprised to see nothing happening on monday i would expect the markets to start to begin to move on tuesday that would be more of a correction day and coming into wednesday we have cpi data out of the us now apart from the employment data out of australia that's pretty much all we need to pay attention to in terms of short-term trading next week and what this suggests to me is that the cpi data on wednesday could very well be a catalyst that starts to move the markets next week and because we have the us bank holiday on the monday what i think is going to happen is we're not going to have any movement on monday we'll start to correct on the tuesday and then once we get the cpi data coming out on wednesday we're going to see moves coming into the market wednesday thursday friday and that's when the markets will really start to present opportunities and move next week so not too much data we need to pay attention to in the short term lots of fundamental data here when you're building out your macro analysis but in terms of the short term those are really the only two things to take note of going into next week if we go back to the dollar index you can see on the daily chart here we really didn't do much last week we had one two three four five days of just correcting but what we're forming here is we're forming a ball flag you can see we broke above the previous high over here in the daily the 93.53 roughly and we broke with momentum and now we're starting to correct so what we could very well see is going into next week i wouldn't be surprised to see the market doing nothing on monday and then what we start to do is we start to correct down on tuesday and then we start to rally to the upside towards the 9470 and if we break through here going to be looking up towards the 95.74 so when we run the data the scores we get for the coming week are the canadian dollar has a score of three out of four the dxy has a score of two out of four the aussie swiss franc and the pound all have scores of one out of four the new zealand dollar has a score of zero out of four so i'm neutral on the new zealand and the euro and the japanese yen both have scores of minus three out of minus four showing that these are the weakest currencies going into next week and these are the markets which i would prefer to focus on to the short side or the currencies i prefer to focus on to the short side so what does this overall score or this overall analysis and the relative currency analysis show us well it shows us the currency pairs which are most likely to trend would be eurocad cad yen euro dollar to the downside we could also look at us dollar yen to the upside we can also look at euro aussie to the downside i'd be interested in next week i'd also be interested in aussie yen to the upside you're frank to the downside euro pound to the downside as well as uh swiss franc japanese yen to the upside and also pound yen to the upside now obviously based on these scores the canadian dollar versus let's say the japanese yen to the upside would be preferable to the pound versus the japanese yen since the cad is actually a strong currency but the relative score analysis also shows us something else which is that not just the markets which are the strongest versus the weakest but it shows us the markets which are most likely to be choppy so going into next week i would certainly be looking to avoid euro yen this is a market which is most likely to range if you like to range trade then that would be a good market to try and rent trade next week and also i would not be interested in us dollar cad going into next week this is another market which could be choppy and lack any clear direction since both the dollar and the canadian dollar are both quite strong going into next week so the strongest currencies versus the weakest currencies are going to be the forex pairs we're going to be focused on going into next week in today's video if we move on to the individual analysis you can see we've already looked at the dollar index if we go to the euro you can see that we do also have momentum to the downside after we broke the low and this is the euro futures so we're looking at the euro on its own we're not looking at the euro vis-a-vis any other currency this is just the euro currency we're looking at we are trending to the downside and we did start to make a low last week i am looking for the declines in the euro the 1.170 which is this previous momentum low which was broken over here this would be an area you could look for a near-term pullback towards this area any break higher above this high because of the relative analysis we looked at would most likely be a false breakout if we start to come up into this area i would be looking for the declines in the euro down to the 1.150
if we go and have a look at the pound and again this is the pound futures market so we're looking at the pound on its own we're not looking at a currency pair this is just the pound the pound is also weak we have broken what looks like actually a major double top here you can see here's the low here's the second retest over here and we broke confirm that down below this level here and you can see this high previously in the pound itself is what is currently holding price over here once we broke above we tried to break above here we failed and once we broke above here we held here we held here we came down we tested and we bounced we tested and we bounced we tested we bounced we failed and now we've come back to re-test this level over here at the 1.3643 so i wouldn't be surprised actually to see the pound start to come straight down at the beginning of next week first i'd be looking for this low in the pound and then down to the 1.3315 what's also interesting in the pound is you can see if we zoom in a little bit on the daily chart you can see this is a very bearish close from this key area of resistance or broken support turning resistance which was just highlighted and again this is actually a reversal candle i would not be surprised to see this starting to turn from the monday or the tuesday and come down and we have this bear flag pattern here in the pound here's the previous high here's the previous low here's the break with momentum here's the pullback here's the fake breakout because the pound is weak looking for a decline now down to the 1.3315 so i am bearish on the pound going into next week the swiss franc you can see we don't actually have as much momentum here in the swiss franc as we do let's say in the pound which we just looked at certainly not the euro and this is one of the reasons the swiss franc is not ranked as weak as either the euro or the pound the pound is actually weaker so when you're looking at for example the dollar pairs i would prefer personally pound dollar to the downside when we look at the markets then say us dollar franc to the upside because the franc is slightly stronger you can see in the swiss franc we did break this head and shoulders reversal pattern and we're currently sitting right at the confirmation level so again this is an area we could start to see the swiss franc turning over to the downside now when you look back and you think of the pound and the swiss franc on a relative basis they had a score of one so you may be saying to yourself well why if this is bearish does it have a score of one because this is just the swiss franc on its own so on its own relative to no other currencies it is weak trending to the downside but because it has a score of one relatively it means that there are other weak currencies out there namely the euro namely the yen so because the swiss franc is lacking momentum you can see it really failed to take out the previous low compared to say the euro and the pound i do think we could see euro frank to the downside this week and we could probably also see pound franc to the downside as the swiss franc itself holds up relative to those currencies if we go and have a look at japanese yen you can see the japanese yen has previously broken out of this correction and we have taken out two targets here this was previously and we're currently sitting at an area where we're breaking the previous low but you can see here this market really has momentum to the downside and again if you were to compare this for example to the swiss franc and you see how choppy this market is then the japanese yen really does stand out as a very weak currency and this is again not just on an individual basis but when we look at it on a relative basis and we run the data it's very weak compared to other currencies as well so japanese yen weakness is definitely something i would be focused on this week in terms of the canadian dollar we have started to break to the upside you can see in the canadian dollar we've been very very choppy and i noted in last week's video that we have a stagflationary outlook here in the forex markets because we have a stronger dollar but also as crude oil is rising due to inflation we're seeing some of the commodity currencies holding up so the canadian dollar in and of itself is fairly strong going into this week it's benefiting from that recent rally in crude oil we broke out of this inverse head and shoulders if i drop down onto the four hours you can see this a bit cleaner but you can see there is an inverse head and shoulders break out here to the upside and the canadian dollar is in a near-term trend to the upside so if you go back to the daily chart one of the things i will be focused on primarily next week is to see if we can have some continuation to the upside in this market and cad strength as we looked at on a relative basis is one of the better themes in my opinion going into next week australian dollar the australian dollar in and of itself is quite interesting we have this inverse head and shoulders breakout on low time frame if we come and drop down to the four-hour chart here on the australian dollar futures we have this inverse head and shoulders breakout here you can see this and we have very weak clothes up in this area having broken above the right shoulder and we're kind of sitting at the previous left shoulder over here now when we look at the australian dollar on a relative basis this is where we can get an idea of whether we have false breakouts or real breakouts we know that the australian dollar is only as it currently stands a rating of plus one so it's not particularly bullish in fact it's kind of bullish to neutral so i would not be surprised to actually see this fail and see the australian dollar just continue to be a bit choppy going into next week so overall i would be looking for further declines to the downside in this market and therefore i would not favor australian long positions over say dollar long positions or canadian dollar positions or canadian dollar long positions i should say and finally if we have a look at new zealand new zealand is actually if we go to the daily chart here it is structured to the downside and it does look like we have further declines in new zealand despite the rate hike we saw last week we have broken below the previous low here with momentum as well and we are forming this kind of bear flag set up and so overall although i have a neutral outlook relatively speaking on the new zealand you can see it structured to the downside and i would not be surprised to see this come down to the 0.68050 so what we're looking at here is the individual analysis here is really confirmed or is confirming the relative analysis we have a number of markets moving to the downside like new zealand like aussie like swiss franc like the pound but relatively speaking these are not as weak as the euro not as weak as the japanese yen and the two individual currencies which are outperforming technically as well as relatively are the canadian dollar going into next week and also the us dollar going into next week as well okay so putting those pieces of the puzzle together let's move on to the currency pairs themselves we'll start off just quickly by looking at crude oil and the recent rally in crude oil has been what has supported the canadian dollar and it's seen the canadian dollar outperforming and in fact previously in previous weekly forex forecast videos i put the canadian dollar pairs in there said canadian strength was something we're looking for and that was based off of similar numbers we've had the canadian dollar outperforming relatively for the past couple of weeks and this is why the canadian dollar has done so well so we are still training to the upside in crude oil we took out both targets to the upside in crude oil last week and going into this week i am still looking for further advances as it currently stands any pullback in crude oil is simply viewed as an opportunity to look for further advances up towards the 83.92 so with crude oil still strong the first pair that we're going to look at and my favorite currency pair going into next week is eurocad this is the weakest currency versus the strongest currency and look at the sell-off we had in eurocad last week eurocad was a market that are highlighted in last week's weekly forex forecast that was before we had this continued sell-off last week i highlighted this we took out both of the targets set in this market and again the reason i highlighted this last week was because we had similar numbers when i ran the data in the morning it showed the euro is the weakest and the cad is the strongest that's why i put eurocad into the weekly forecast and you saw this paying off last week so very simply put going into this week i am once again looking further declines in this market we're still in the daily chart here any pullback in this market next week will be viewed as an opportunity to look for bearish setups and what i'd like to see is because we're coming quite close to the target down here at the 1.4377 what i would like to see is a pullback first any correction simply viewed
as an opportunity to look for bearish reversals break lower i'm going to be looking down towards the next q supports the downside target set the 1.4377 so next market i like is cad yen this was another market highlighted in last week's weekly forex forecast and again why was this highlighted in last week's weekly forex forecast well for the same reasons because the end was underperforming in last week's relative data and also the cad was over performing and what did we get last week we had a rally took out both the targets in last week's weekly forex forecast and we finished up nearly 89.93 so you can see this was as a result of the data which was run in last week's weekly forex forecast or before last week's weekly forex forecast i should say so very simply put going into this week i am looking further advances to the upside in this market look at the previous break we had here as well and this is what we want to be looking at we broke above here with momentum look at this this is where we start to get these ball flag setups we're lacking momentum over here lacking momentum lag momentum and then we break with momentum this is an indication that there's a very good chance we're going to be coming up for higher highs in this market so any pullback in cadiene next week is going to be viewed as an opportunity to look for bush reversals and if we start to break higher and we start to get high highs in this market i'm going to be looking up towards the next care resistance the upside and target set 91.15 the next market i would look at them based on what we've just discussed in the currency strengths the individual relative analysis would be euro dollar the euro is very weak and i highlighted this market last week we started to pull back and this was a market that identified as being good for short opportunities we did have a pullback and a nice sell-off towards the target we haven't got there just yet so if anybody not involved from last week or anybody who did not take short positions any continued pullback in this market is simply viewed as another opportunity to look for bearish reversals down to next kiev supports the downside in the target set and the 1.1496 the next market i like
going into next week is us dollar japanese yen now u.s dollar japanese yen is a market that has been performing really well we had this big rally and in last week's weekly forex forecast video again because the dollar was outperforming in the data which i ran before the video and the japanese yen was underperforming i highlighted the fact that we wanted to see a pullback in us dollar japanese yen and that would be the opportunity to look for long positions into the one one two point one ninety and that's exactly what we got and we finished the week right at the target last week so going into this week now we've accomplished this target what i'd like to see is any continued pullback in this market and you can see we're breaking above the previous high here with some momentum now any pullback is simply viewed as another opportunity to start to look for bullish reversals in this market and we're going to be looking up towards the next key resistance the upside in the target set at the 112.87 so those are the four currency pairs that i would be primarily interested in keeping our next week looking for opportunities for setups in those directions the next market we can look at let's look at the dollar pairs is new zealand dollar what we have here is we have a neutral new zealand against a stronger dollar so this is a market that can also look at to the downside we've started to break down in this market already you can see we're forming this type of bear flag pattern so any continued pullback in this market would be viewed as an opportunity to look for bearish reversals down towards the next key of support to downside the target set with 0.6807 next is pound dollar now pound dollar as we looked at previously this is a market as you can see we've pulled back to the previous kiev resistance over here for a start in the four hours and we've retested this previous low and you can see i've put a fibonacci on here for you because this is also the 618 fibonacci fibonacci is just a measuring tool it's nothing special about it it just helps you measure risk to reward we have pulled back to the 618 and we're forming what looks like a double top here so any brake lower in pound dollar you can see here's potential double top for me is going to be viewed next week as an opportunity to look for bearish reversals any brake blower and a pullback and we're going to be looking at initiating shorts down towards the next key of support to the downside the target set with 1.3399 the next dollar pair we're going to look at is us dollar swiss franc now don't forget after new zealand dollar what's happening here is we're moving on to pairs which are actually slightly bullish to neutral such as the swiss franc and the pound and the aussie so i do not favor these as much as i would favor for example EurUsd us dollar yen or even new zealand dollar but us dollar swiss franc is still training to the upside and what i'd like to see is any break above the previous high here would be viewed as the opportunity to start to look for bullish setups up towards the next q resistance the upside the target set the zero point nine three seven zero and the final dollar pair is aussie dollar again keep in mind the fact that pound us dollar swiss franc and also aussie dollar are bullish to neutral currencies versus a stronger currency so not as good however any continued pullback in this market you can see we are also sitting at this potential inverse head and shoulders breakout the confirmation point was actually here but we're sitting at the left shoulder now because when we looked at the relative analysis the australian dollar relatively speaking is weaker than the us dollar us dollar we had a score of two aussie was a score of one this tells me that this breakout to the upside is probably going to fail most probably any breakdown from this area here in australian dollar will be viewed as an opportunity to look for bearish setups down towards the next key of supports the downside in the target set at the 0.7158 so we've already looked at eurocad and also cad yen let's have a look at aussie yen
because aussie yen frank yen and pound yen are bullish to neutral currencies versus a weak currency in the japanese yen so aussie yen aussie yen is structured to the upside and in terms of this market we have almost taken out the previous targets at the 8209 so what i would really like to see here is let's see this target taken out first any pullback in this market perhaps to the previous highs over here is going to be viewed as an opportunity to look for potential bullish setups up towards the next q resistance the upside the target set and the 82.80 frankie bullish to neutral currency versus the weak currency we started to break out from this corrective pattern and you can see we really started to break with momentum in fact the previous high is over here and you can see we are breaking with momentum above here so going into next week further advances in this market do look probable because we have this momentum we also have a bullish neutral currency versus weak currency any pullback in this market therefore would be viewed as an opportunity to look for bullish setups and if we start to get some decent bullish setups in this market this is something i'd be prepared to consider for long positions up towards the next care resistance upside in the target set the 121.45 and finally with the end pairs let's have a look at pound yen now pound gen is in this order because the pound is weaker than the frank and the frank is weaker than the aussie so out of those three there in fact the four with cadian this is my least favorite however we are still trending to the upside in this market so any pullback in pound gm could be considered next week as an opportunity to look for bullish reversals up towards the next care residency upside the target set at the 154.130 and the final three
currency markets i like going into next week are based on a weak euro versus bullish neutral currencies so if we look at euro aussie we are trending to the downside we actually have this big head and shoulders breakout you can see if i go to the daily chart here this becomes a lot more clearer we also have momentum in the daily chart with this break lower so i would not be surprised to see this coming down lower so going into next week any pullback in this market is simply going to be viewed as an opportunity to look for bearish setups and perhaps we come back and retest the confirmation point of this breakout and any bearish reversals will be views an opportunity to look for short positions down to the point five seven seven three and if we can break through here down to target two at the one point five six eight nine euro frank euro frank is a weak euro versus a bullish neutral swiss franc as we looked at we have this head and shoulders reversal and we're trending to the downside we came very close to the target set so really would like to see a pullback in this market if there's going to be trading opportunities any pullback towards the confirmation point here would be viewed in this market as an opportunity once again to look for bearish reversals down towards next qf supports the downside of the target set at 1.0698 and final currency market forex pair we're going to look at here is euro pound again i prefer the strongest versus the weakest currencies but because this is a weak versus a bullish to neutral pound this is something else i will be keeping an eye on somewhat next week you can see that we have had a big sell-off and what we have here in europe is a developing head and shoulders if we come out to the daily chart you can see this more clearly and we were correcting making new highs and then we had this big sell-off and we kind of broke out of this kind of channel to the upside but we broke this new low and this is now developing a potential head and shoulders in europe so any pullback in this market if we drop back down to the four hours would be viewed as an opportunity to start to look for bearish reversals and we're going to be looking down towards the next key of support to the downside the target sets we start to correct and then we start to break new lows in this area going to be looking down towards the next care of support 0.84 160. so moving on to the stock market and stocks if we start with the spx and we scroll out to the daily chart here you can see we did come down and take out the target set last week at the four two eight seven point six nine and we started to bounce from here we have not yet reversed in the stock market as a result of this i would still favor short positions in stocks going into next week in the spx the next key of support to the downside is the four two three three point one three and if we start to decline further in the spx down to the four two three three point one three again this is going to provide a bearish bias on stocks within the s p 500 next is the nasdaq if we go and have a look at the nasdaq this was also a market which we came down and took out the target last week almost to the point here the 14 457 457.33 going into this week the nasdaq is still bearish and the reversal would be above the 15 342 so going into next week once again because the market structure to the downside i would favor short setups in stocks within the nasdaq and any pullback in this area would be viewed as an opportunity to look for the declines down to the 14 205.97 next is the dow jones
now the dow jones really went nowhere last week we just started to correct sideways and we have failed to break 3504.90 so i'm still currently bearish on the dow jones and stops within this index since we pulled back slightly i would be looking for further declines in this index down to the 33 318.14 just remember as i always say to you guys you don't have to short the market or even short stocks within these indices if you want to be long only then what this simply means is you just sit out these markets and you just wait and once the markets break higher once you start to reverse you can then look for long positions in stocks within those indices or even in those in the seas themselves so if you don't like short stocks you don't have to short stocks this would just be a wait and be patient time if you do like short stocks or you want to build into a long short portfolio i would still favor short positions in these indices next is the russell now the russell is a little bit of a giveaway because i highlighted previously how the russell leads other indices and as the other indices have been selling off the russell has been maintaining its bullish structure and this is just a correction as it currently stands and it's still bullish so if you do want to be long stocks i would be long stocks within the russell next week if you think the markets are going to reverse and the sell-offs in spx ndx dow jones are all coming to an end which they could well be because we have about five percent corrections then instead of trying to pick the bottoms in those indices i would prefer to actually trade stocks within the russell which is already structured to the upside and which already has a long bias so going into next week i am looking further advances in this market up towards the next q resistance the outside the target set and the 232 3.32 and the final stock market we're going to look at is the nifty the nifty has been a fantastic performing market and if we drop down to the four hours here i said previously that what i wanted to see was any pullback towards the 17357 this was the opportunity to look for bullish setups into the 18047 we have come up so any continued correction once again for anybody not already long is just another opportunity to look for bullish setups into the next care resistance the upside the target set the 18047.15 and finally
moving on to XauUsd XagUsd and bitcoin if we look at XauUsd, XauUsd was the market last week which are highlighted to the downside i said i was bearish on XauUsd and we've seen with the relative currency analysis the dollar is actually a fairly strong currency not quite as strong as the cad but it's fairly strong and this is going to weigh to the downside on XauUsd and when we look at that relative analysis we can see just very similar to what we looked at in aussie dollar we have this fake breakout to the upside in XauUsd and that's because the dollar is still quite strong so we came up we faked this breakout with this really very bearish pink handle and in the daily the reason i'm on the daily is because of this you can see this is pointing to further declines to the downside so very simply put going into next week because we've already pulled back towards the 178643 and we have this set up here let me drop down to the four-hour chart you can see this is now an area where i am going to start to look for bearish reversals in gold i'm going to be looking down towards the next care of supports the downside the target set from last week at 1718.21 now XagUsd is also a market highlighted to the downside and we started to pull back in this market but again we've already looked at the fact that the dollar index is strong so this break to the upside we kind of have an inverse head and shoulders break here i would be looking for this to fail based on the strength analysis of the dollar so going into next week if we start to break lower start to break these lows over here this would be a sign that i am going to start to look for potential bearish setups in XagUsd i'm going to be looking down towards the next kev supports the downside the target highlighted last week and 21.15 and finally we have bitcoin now bitcoin was a market that performed really well in last week's weekly forex forecast i was looking for further advances to the upside in this market and we took out both targets at 50 505 and the 52913 as well and what's interesting is bitcoin is starting to outperform despite the fact we have a stronger dollar we are still seeing bitcoin rise to the upside so if we reset the chart here and zoom out to the daily you can see we are coming up to potentially retest the right shoulder of the head and shoulders which started this big sell-off in bitcoin so i am bullish despite the fact we have a stronger dollar going into next week i am actually bullish on bitcoin still if we drop down to the four-hour chart you can see we're sitting right at the end of this rally so very simply put going into next week again what i'd like to see as always is any pullback in this market and you can see we broke above this high here with momentum so any pullback potentially to the 51 931 would be viewed as an opportunity to start to look for bullish setups once again in bitcoin i'm going to be looking up towards the next care resistance outside the target set at the 58 622 so that is it for me for this week guys we went through the full process today so you can really get an understanding of why i'm looking at the charts that i'm looking at going into next week once again please let me know in the comments what you thought of this week's video and if you like this longer style format for those of you who like to jump straight to the charts i have indexed that in the pinned comments so you can just go straight to the charts in future if you wish to although personally i think it's a good thing to have an understanding of why we're looking at the charts we're looking at and i think if you go straight to the charts without understanding why we're looking at those markets it can lose a lot of the context so as always i hope you guys enjoyed this video and if you did please let me know by liking sharing and subscribing a big thanks to everybody who does that on a regular basis and everybody who has subscribed to the channel so far i want to wish every single one of you a fantastic weekend and i want to wish you all the best in your trading next week the only thing left to say is take care and don't forget to trade safely
2021-10-11 08:38