Sector Rotation & Intermarket Analysis 5-1-19 Brent Moors
Hello. Everybody it's good to be here today my name is Brent Morse and it, is time for our sector rotation and inner market analysis. Webcast. Today we're going to talk about building a training plan so it's, good to be here it's a wonderful spring. Day kind, of on the cool side here, in Salt Lake I hope it is nice, wherever, you. Are you. Know each week on this, webcast we discuss, different. Asset. Classes and different sectors, and we kind of take a broader mute view of the market to. Try and kind of understand, where the market is going but ultimately. I think. Many, of you are interested in actually. Trading, or investing in. The market and, when. You trade or invest in the market it, really just it starts with a plan and that's what we're gonna be talking about today but. Before we do that let. Me go through and give you just a few reminders here. If you take a look at your page. Just. To remind you that while this webcast, discusses, technical, analysis other approaches, including fundamental, analysis may have served very different views. Investments. In fixed income products, are subject to liquidity, risk interest rate risk. Financial. Risk inflation risk and special, tax liabilities. Investments. In rates and other real estate investments, are subject to the same risks as direct investment. In real. Estate and. Payment, of dividends aren't guaranteed and. ETFs. Can entail risk similar to direct stock ownership including market sector or industry. Risk. In. Order to demonstrate the functionality the platform we need to use actual symbols, however, TD Ameritrade, does not make any recommendations, or determine the suitability of. Any security or strategy for individual traders any individual, any, investment. Decision you make in your self-directed account is solely your, responsibility we'll, be looking at a paper money platform today that, is for educational, purposes only. And. Just remember all investing, involves risk including risk, of loss and please no soliciting, no, photography. And no. Recording. All. Right, everyone. Let's. Let's. Let. Me just tell you what we're gonna do and, as you do as we do so I will flip, over to the, TD. Ameritrade comm website, we're gonna start. By reviewing the economic, calendar talking, about what's going on the markets and. Then. We're going to turn our attention to building, a trading plan what are the basics, of building a trading plan and then we'll cover as usual. How sectors, are performing, asset, classes are performing and by, the time you're done you. Should understand the basics, of how to create a trading, plan now, just a reminder we, have a lot of Education here and if. You. Go up to. Education. Click. On webcast you, can bring up a, webcast. Calendar, there's upcoming webcasts, archived. Webcast. So. This. Is live does what's coming up tonight and. Then. We archive most of these that. You can come back so you don't have necessarily have to be there live but. Here, is the overall calendar. That. We have so check out this calendar, there's, some good stuff here, that I. Think you'll find valuable. We also have classes that. Go around. Around. The country, there. So. Let's. Let's, go back to the TD Ameritrade website I'm gonna go to research and ideas and, I'm gonna click on calendar, I'm. Gonna try this, I'm. Gonna try this this way. Okay. So here's the calendar, and. If. I zoom up or. Scroll, up I guess you can see we can see earnings, today we. Can see CBS. Is probably the biggest no. Qualcomm's pretty big too. So. A few big names out there we're in earnings season folks, we're, in season. Again we had CBS. We. Had Southern Company. Really. Say southern is a big company. Qualcomm. Was after the belt tonight and, Prudential. Released. Today, as well and. So. We're still on kind of the early, portion, of earnings season I would say. But. We've had some substantial, couple. That have released earnings. So we still have a ways to go in, earnings season I guess is my point here, coming. Up later, this week and you can see this on this economic calendar, you, can look down here and see that, is Dow DuPont that. Is a big. Company, Gilead. Is coming, up I don't see that on here but it is coming up.
Berkshire. BRK. ABR Cape B, is. Berkshire. Hathaway. And. AMT. Is a big company so that's what is on the earnings docket. For. This. Week probably. Important, to. To. Think about this keep, in mind well that says we will talk about economic, events let, me pull up today's, economic events, here's. Some economic, events for today. Right, in here. But. This. Is you. Know one, piece of the puzzle these economic, events but. Thought. The whole thing corporate. Earnings does, affect. The. Whole market fairly. Significantly, one, thing I would point out to you on, this page in terms of navigating, this page is. Sometimes. It doesn't list them all in, here. In this case we have five things listed, but. There's another one on there that was pretty important, today let. Me just show you that let, me get out of that yeah. And if. I could it economic, advance. And. Scroll, down here. We go FOMC. Rate decision, and really, in terms of what happened, today that. Was probably the most substantial. Not so much the rate decision. In that. It. Was. Entirely. Expected. What they did and that is basically, they, decided, hey we're gonna hold rates. Steady. But. The, language that, they talk about when you hear Jerome Powell talking you know people. Kind. Of retry. And read between every line he he, speaks in terms of the, future, direction there, and it did, affect the market a little bit the mark was down. There. For a little while but for, the most part it, was totally, unexpected totally, expected. That, they kept rates right, where they're at so that was today's but. As we look forward, and throughout. The rest of the week what. We're gonna see is we have a few other things to pay attention to initial. Jobless. Claims. Okay, non-farm. Payrolls. Here. On Friday so, this is a weekly, report this Thursday, report this. Is a monthly. Report this, is the more significant, one of the two probably just because it is a monthly. Report, every. Average hourly, earnings that's where we get the unemployment rate. From. That. Is coming up Friday and that can drive the market we'll look at some of these data points and just in just. A few minutes here so. I. Guess. That's it on that page we'll, see that's that is what's coming up later. This week and just as a reminder I, am, on, this. Earnings. Non-homeless. I'm on this under. Research and ideas I. Am. On. The. Calendar, page. Right there let me point out something to you something that I just discovered. And maybe it's been there all along and, I didn't realize it but, if you, go to markets. And overview. And. Click. On overview. Of the markets, and, you. Click on fixed, income, it. Gives you a nice little graph here's kind of small so you're not gonna see it super, well. But. This this, graph, here, shows. Different. Interest. Rates on, Treasuries. So. What. You can see is you, can see these are the time, there's. There's, a time frame there okay and, you. Can see as. You go, up in. Time in general, this graph, goes up, this. Direction, right up this, direction and, what. That means is longer. Treasuries, have. A higher yield because the y-axis, here in this case is. The yield, x-axis. Is our, time frame that is a positive, yield. Curve when we see that. And. There. Is a concern. When. When. That flattens out in fact we have just a little bit if. You look right now and the, latest is the dark green, if you. Look, at. Get. My drawing tool here going from. There, to there, it's. Actually, pretty. Negative, not. Pretty which is a little negative from, this, month six months to two two, years but.
Usually, When we're talking about a yield curve and we can see this in a minute we're talking two to ten and actually. The tin is a little bit higher than the two all right. Okay. By, the way welcome Ricardo, welcome Krishna welcome everybody, I'm glad glad. You're here so as we look at these economic. Points. These data points. I. Want. To I. Want. To. Flip. Over and. We're, gonna go to the. Analyze, tab. Economic. Data and. We're. Gonna look at some of this stuff here all. Right now. Here's, basic. I'm, not gonna go through it all just for times sake but, just point out some of the things we mentioned tomorrow. We. Have initial, jobless, claims, well. Here is the graph for initial. Jobless claims I'm going to zoom in just a little bit so we can see see. This. Lower. Is. Generally. Better because. That means fewer people are filing. Initial, jobless claims it. Would be if we look back though, on this and. We're. Trying to decide, you. Know where's, where, the markets heading where's the economy, heading sometimes. We can look at things like this and see a look, at initial, jobless, claims, come. Up and this, gray area is, the. Right. Initial. Jobless claims started. To come up a little bit and there. Is the recession. Initial. Jobless claims were definitely, going up before. The recession now, we don't have a recession right now but you can see how that could be used, as. Something. To look at in terms of trying to decipher. Where. Things, are going, what, about. Unemployment. Rate, here's that base unemployment. Rate and there. We go. We. Can see that after our last recession. Unemployment. Went. Up fairly high and, it's, gone down and down and down and presumably, and we're kind of plateau, in, here there is a concern, when. You get below too low and that may sound kind of weird that we'd have to low of unemployment, but, the concern is that can really, spike up in. You. Can spike up. Wages. And, ultimately, inflation, inflation. There. Could be the, result but in general we want this to be low and again, how's. Unemployment looking. Unemployment. Is looking pretty good now that's not a huge, leading, economic. Indicator, but. It is, something. That we, do. Keep an eye on here's. Another one that is more of a leading. Economic, indicator, this, is actually an index of leading economic indicators. And. If. We, look back over time, what. We can see is that. For. You. Look at this chart again the gray area is the recession, before. The recessions, this tends to drop. Index. Of leading economic indicators. Tends to drop that would bode, poorly, for it now we've dropped a little bit probably. Not a huge concern at this, point on this, graph there. But, those are the kinds of things that we can look at as we're trying to make proper. Investment. Decisions, as to. Where things. Are going. Let me just hit a couple more and then we'll, move on with our, with. Where. We're going here talk about trading plans we. Just mentioned something though, we. Talked about unemployment. Rate. There. Is also. What. We call the u6, unemployment rate. And the. U6, unemployment rate, is total unemployed plus. Marginally. Attached, workers.
Plus. Total employed, part-time for, economic reasons, so in other words on the using traditional, unemployment. Rate if you are if you. Are employed. Part-time and. You. Want to be employed, full time it. Still doesn't it counts you as employed it. Doesn't mark, you against the unemployment, rate, and, so, people. And people who are just what, they call discouraged. Workers, people who have, just given up looking for a job and we do have a pretty strong job market, here but. A lot of times we'll look at this u6, unemployment is, perhaps a little bit better indication, of unemployment, but, and you, can see this is a high level well over seven percent here, on this. But. It's still fairly low by historic, measures you can see this this is what a how. Many your your chart is this this is about a 30-year, chart. Twenty. Well, twenty. Five-year chart here. If I'm doing mine counted my years right. And, we're. Kind of near the bottom that's. A good sign by the way it's, a very good sign and. So, not, much concern here, on this, on this. Front either there. But. As we are looking, at this there's. Some other measures, that we may consider one. Is the. Labor force, participation rate, so, in other words one. Of the concerns with just looking at unemployment, is. What. About how much how much how many people do actually have employed who, actually want to be employed and the. General. Idea. Is. Now. We want to keep people, who are in there, kind of prime, earning. Years, in prime working years in this case, 25. To 54, is what they're looking at this participation, rate. Employed. Want that to be a high number and you, can see this, actually has been creeping up here. Lately. But. Hot. High, is good, on this and and there, was maybe a little bit of a concern as, we. Saw the, labor force partition, for, participation, rate drop. Especially, after. This. Recession. That, we had there okay, Krishna. Let me address, that question that you had in just one sec here okay. What. About for women, well. The labor force participation rate. For. Women. Is lower there's. Some women. Who they're, more women than men elect, just voluntarily, not to join, the labor, force or and. For. Whatever reason, and and and you, can see this rate is. About. 57 percent if you consider this back, historically but if you think about back, in the. Then. In the time for, example in the 50s, and 60s a, lot. Of more much higher percentage, of women chose. Not to work in, the labor force and so you can see how that labor, force women's. Labor force rate increased. Increased, increased it peaked, out kind. Of right around the turn of the millennium there. Right. And then it's maybe. Eased, off just a little bit here but starting to creep up again so I thought that may be of interest to, you now. There's a question from Krishna here the question for Krishna is how do we get these charts, well. These. Charts these are on the economic, data tab so. If you go to analyze. You. Go to economic, data and you. Can click on the, homepage and they're, all. Listed. Right. Here now, the problem is there's, a lot of them okay. There's, a lot of them and now. You may say well that's not that many each of these can be broken down into maybe a thousand, more on some of these okay. So, I have. A list, that I compiled, here that you can use as a watchlist, okay, so what I'm going to do is I'm just going to share. Clicked. On the wrong button I'm going, to. Share. My watch list. Here. Which. I know I can do, maybe. I'll look on this other page maybe all. Let's. Do this this is that's. The right one and. Share. Okay so I'm going to share this watch list with, you one. Sec. Okay. So this, is a URL. That. I am. Typing. In. If. It will let me. There. We go I just chatted that out there through the chat now what do you do with this once, you get it. What. You can do if. You want and there's no need to do this if you don't want these this list here but I. Went. Through and, picked. Some I felt some important, data points, here and. So. If you want that take that URL, go. Up to. The. Setup page up there, click. On setup open. Shared item. Paste. That URL copy, and paste that URL in there click on preview click. On open it'll ask you if you want to rename the watch list and you, can do that as well so that'll save you a little time you, can also of course just. Copy those symbols by hand but, I figure, using, that URL may. Be a little, bit easier. For you. There okay, all. Right now. Let's. Move on let's, move on. Alright. We're.
Talking About training plans here. That's. Our subject. D'azur. And. I'm. Gonna, go to, the. TD Ameritrade website, and. I want to show you something actually I'm gonna go to I'm. Gonna go to the education tab, we're. Gonna click on and, we're gonna go to Education Center okay. You. Are welcome everybody. Uh. That. Is true that is true you can search fret on that as well if you like that's. Where ultimately we get that the, data for, those but. There's. A lot of data on that thing or some economic, data page, just. A matter of picking out those points and finding those points, here, all. Right let's go and I want to just I got to click on stocks, here on the education, page. And. Notice. We have some courses there's. A fundamental analysis, course and that's not, really the subject for, the day or technical, analysis course but I want to show you I want to bring up the course I'm gonna click on start, for the course because, I want to this is I think import, an important, thing here, and, by. The way you're gonna see the same thing on the technical analysis course look, to the right side of this course what. You're gonna see is sample. Investing. Plans, see. That it's, a little I don't know that you'd see notice, it unless you were pointed out I want it there's just enough. Data on all these different pages here, it's easy to miss stuff but, if you click on sample investing. Plans what happens is you get a PDF of a. Sample. Investing. Plan ok, this, one for fundamental analysis obviously the technical analysis one is gonna, be a little, bit different, but. Before. We go to this too. Far into this let, me just mention something, to you and that. Is if you're, doing an investment, plan you. Very well may want to come up with an asset, allocation right, and also we've talked about these in past weeks, I'm. Just gonna draw up we have a little pie chart here, you. Know you, may say well we're gonna have this much and I, don't know how much the exact amount should be but. Oops. This. Much in your us. Talk. Allocation. And this. Must match, in our I'm just going to abbreviate here. Just. For times sake our international. Allocation. And we'll, have this, much and bond. Were, fixed income, and, then. We will have some alternative. Investments, or cash or whatever okay you. Get the point. So. If you start, with that allocation. It. Meant, it's gonna impact, these investing, plans you use in other words like if we're doing fundamental. Analysis, plan. That's. Gonna apply. To, this. U.s. stock allocation, probably. It's. Probably knocking it like if we have some options here or. Something. Else. Where. Is this probably isn't gonna apply to that it's. Probably not gonna apply to our bond allocation although, you could use some fundamental, analysis, there but in general, so. It starts, with your allocation. There. Before. You do that. But. Let's let's look at this plan, we have here and this isn't an endorsement, of these specific, rules of course but. This is just to show you some. Of the things that we're gonna do. Some. Of the areas, on the plan and if. You look at other plans they're gonna be fairly, similar not in that exact, content but in the categories. We. Discuss. So. We have an objective, of, the plan that's just kind of what are we gonna do with the thing we, have watchlist, criteria, in other words before, we even consider, looking at a stock, in this case what.
Do We want to see what, are the attributes, we want to see in that stock. Well. This is a fund. Investing. Plan here, by. The way if, you. Want to know more about value, investing, stay, tuned after this class because at the, top. Of the hour that's. At 8 o'clock Eastern Time Cameron. May is gonna talking about, getting. Started with value investing, so that's a nice little segue. There huh yeah. There we go so here's, a value investing plan so we talk about things like p/e, ratios. Price to sales ratios, price to book ratio and other, stuff. Now. If we're doing a growth plan. It's. Going to look a little different but this that's watchlist, criteria. So. Those are the kinds of stocks we're going to consider as we, do this but. Notice some other categories, we have here on this. We. Have. Entry. Rules so. We let's say we found those, stocks, than that, you know they they look good they look like decent value companies, what, do we do with them when do we actually get in what. Do we enter the trade. That's. An entry. Rule when. Do we get out of a trade and you guys can take, up and there's a lot of content, on this document here I'm not going to go through it right now just because it's, outside the realm of this class and we don't have time but. If. You want to take some time go. To that education tab. Pull. It go to corset, or go to stocks. And then, look at the courses available there exit. Rules once, you buy a stock and maybe things are going well maybe things aren't going well when. You get out. Buying. Fine. Often, is an easier decision. Than. Selling, this so. We have exit. Rules when do we get out money, management, money. Management. Investing. And being a successful investor is not just when, to buy when to sell. It's. About managing, your risk properly. That, include stuff like position. Sizing some. People may consider a stop there's. Pros and cons at, diversifying. So. Those, are all things that. You, can consider. Their routines. This, is another part of it now this is probably not the first thing that comes to mind when you talk about a trading plan routines. Is a very probably important part of that training, plan Daler, do what you can do on a daily basis, to try and be a better investor, to better manage these stocks. What. Some things you don't have to do with daily right. You probably don't have to search for new stocks daily. You. Don't. Have to monitor, earnings releases daily, probably, or, record, your trades daily, likely. You're not gonna trade daily so. God. So, we can break it up into day, weekly, and monthly. Now. Weekly. Or monthly, so. Keep, in mind some things. You. May. Some. Ways of managing a portfolio is. Gonna. May, be more what, we'd call. There's. Been years a couple approaches, one we call. Tactical. Active. Call. Approach. Okay. And one. Would. Be more of a an, all passive, or, strategic, approach, okay. Kind. Of two fundamental. Distinctions. In managing. A portfolio, okay. Tactical. Approach is going to be looking, doing, a lot of what we do in this class now, we're gonna turn to in just a few minutes oh five minutes we'll turn to it that. Is. Turn. To what, sectors, are maybe. Performing. Better now and, which. Ones are out of favor. Whereas. A. Passive. May. Not trade very often we're not gonna try and take advantage of every little move in the market or or when we kind of come up with our initial allocation and, we basically. Stick with them just trying to stick with it tactical. We may overweight, if, we're doing tactical, we may overweight, to those sectors that we feel are gonna be stronger. So. That's. That's. How, that's. How that factors in now this is a fundamental, plan, okay. Uh. Chris, I said there's some sectors that are out of favor become. Value. Investing, yeah so a one. Premise, of value investing again this isn't a class on value investing remember. Next class sorry Nate o'clock Eastern we're going to talk more in depth about value, investing, but. One. Of the things that ways that people approach value invest is a lot of times they'll try and find some stocks that have, maybe been beaten up a little bit you still have to be careful because.
You Don't want to buy something some stocks that have been beaten up or being up for a good reason, maybe should stay beat enough to be honest and you don't want to jump in those that's, why we have a plan with. These different rules. On. It okay. So when do you enter those well. Here's. What I would suggest for you Christian. Uh. Check. Out check, out the value investing, course check, out camps, webcast. Coming. Up in less than an hour and check, out this sample, plan because. You said when do you enter these there's, an tree rules right here on, the plan that, you may want to check out there okay. All. Right now. What. Are some other ways that we can what. Are some other ways that we can do. These. Okay. Other. Other. Ways. To assess. Entries, and exits. Relative. Strengths, that's. What we talked about later in this class other, technical, analysis, when, we went to education. When. We went to this education plan Education. Center there. Was in addition. To. Fundamental. Analysis, there's. This technical, analysis, right here and if, you go there, there's. An investing, plan, that. You can use and. It's gonna have a lot more technical. Criteria. There. All. Right. Could. You use. As. Part of your plan. Advisors. Analyst. Reports could. You do that I. Think. That's certainly. Could, be a part of it right. Ricardo's. Mentioning, a technical. Indicator, you could use a. Couple. Different technical, indicators, you could use. There as you. Are trying to, determine. Entries, and exit those are fine but so here's let me just finish up okay. Let. Me just finish up with these Sam, talking about a plan, creating, a plan, here's. A few things one. Make. It, make. It specific. Specific. Specific. Okay. Make. It specific, make. It object in, other words objective. You. Know good. Having. A rule that says get in when a stock. Is. Strong. Is. May. Not be I mean what's strong. Or. Strengthening. What's strengthening, make. It more specific than that give yourself some objective, rules. And then, if things work out well you, know what you've done and, if things don't work out well you, know we what have you done so you know you can address it okay. So. Make. It specific or. Objective, make it also clear and I know these are similar, but. Clear. So that probably. Someone. Else can, look at your plan and make sense out of it, another. Thing I would suggest for your plan track. Your results. Okay. Track. Your results and that, way you can go back and. Decide you know on good years you can look and it's. Probably looking good right. But. The problem is you're. Not just trying to be positive on, a good. Year you're trying to probably beat some benchmark, so, use your, use. Your. Use. A benchmark. There and. Track and see how you're measuring up to there. Another. Bit, of, maybe. Advice on creating an investment, plan. Don't, over, manage, okay. Don't over manage in other words. You. Know no. Matter the best plan in the world. Sometimes. We'll have some. Bad results, right. Just, like you could watch. Use. A golf analogy you could watch Tiger. Woods golf. Now. I mean I know he had a few rough years or, a pro golfer golf. And you could view, one of their shots and maybe their shot is poor. And. You go, wow you know that's he's not very good. Right, but. The. More you the more data points, you get in as you. Assess. The. Better you can actually assess, right. You need a large sample size, there. Now. At the same time what. I don't want you to do is it's not a once. You create your plan you forever forget about it okay. You do need to go back and. Periodically. You. Need to periodically. Reevaluate. Okay, re. Evaluate. Okay. So, you so that way over time you, can make little tweaks to it and hopefully make. It better but. All but the other thing is this. You. Need to. You. Need to have. Real. Realistic, expectations. Right realistic. Expectations, okay, I think, that's what I wanted to say on creating. A plan let's, do a little analysis. Of. Our. Sectors, how about, okay. Let's go to our. Sectors. Here. We go, here, are our eleven, sectors, we're gonna see how these guys are working. I have, a relative, strength, down at the bottom of the page we.
Can See let's. Do let's, go year-to-date how about so. We check these out you know date see how we're doing you're. In a date. If, the. Blue. Lot so as. We're, interpreting relative, strength. We're. Gonna look this, is the starting point of this, versus the SPX. That's, our benchmark, and, if. We're below this. Is what SPX is now the redline redline is SP x and the, blue line is how whatever we're looking at in this case energy. As. Compared, to the SP x and you what you can see is for most of the year it's basically been on par, with the SP x the, last week, or so it's. Finally dropped down below, that okay, so that's how we can view this if this is below. Where, the red line is it means it's underperformed, if it's above it's outperformed, but you can also get a glimpse of throughout, the year how. Things have doing, okay. Right. This, watchlist, area if this is the watchlist you're referring to this, is a public watchlist so, I did, so this, I'll show you how to get it okay I gotta. Get on my drawing tools okay. This. Is if you go to public. Espy. Sectors, indices. That's. This watchlist so I can't share it but you can you. Can just. Pull it up that way public. Sector. S&P 500 sectors indices, okay. Now. Other. Thing to look at. Percentage. I have a percentage scale and if we want a percentage scale you can just go as a little squiggly line click, on show prices, percentage, and what we can see how things are doing let's, look at the SPX here for a second okay, so here's the SPX, for. Your today SPX is up about 16% or so okay, so let's see how these different sectors are doing. Compared. To the. SPX, okay. One other hands on me on this, and I've got a hurry. Here yes, I put, a description, you can use this little gear and customize, it with the description, because. If you don't and you're. Just trying to figure out what each of these are it can be a little difficult right Espie, dollar sign sp500 dollar, pound. 25. Doesn't, mean much to me but once you put the description it makes a little easier okay can. You go to that gear for that so. Outperforming. Or underperforming it's, underperforming. Especially. The last week energy, has underperformed, remember. Our benchmark, here is about 16% our benchmark. Beam that, S&P, 500. What. About materials. Materials. Is under performance, that underpin, underperforming, for most of the year again, not terrible, performance. 11%. Their. Industrials. Is a different story though. Industrials. Is a pretty, cyclical. Industry. And when. The economy's doing well. Industry. Does pretty well typically, you know I can't, make a blanket, statement that it always is gonna be that way but industrials. Tend to do well when the economy is doing well and the, economy has been doing well when, the markets, are doing well the month look markets are up sixteen percent you're a date, we're only four, months through the year. That. I mean I'm not, really. Expecting it's gonna continue that way but that's that's, a great year of just in the first four months right. So. Industrials. Have outperformed and you, could see they were really, outperforming. January/february. Leveled. Off a little bit since then but at this point we're still outperforming, so industrials. Are showing some strength and what, we just said about industrials. Can, also be said about discretionary. Discretionary. Is when people have a little extra money what do they do with the extra money that they have that, they can spend, staples. Is a different story, staples. Tends, to do better when the economy's not doing so, well or there's more concern about the economy it, doesn't seem like there's that much concern, about the economy right now staples. Again, not it not a terrible. Thing to performance. I guess 1213. Percent but, it is definitely underperforming. Health. Care has, actually, rebounded. The last two weeks but it, was kind of poor before that point and, so, health. Care is, kind of one of the dogs here right now it's really not doing very well it's, really, been underperforming. Financials. Financials. Lagging. The. Rest of the market or ragging. The S&P 500 by just a little bit, technology. That's. Our top performer. That. Is our top performing technology, and what. I said about industrials. Can really be said, that. For. The. Others this, is relative. Strength it's under studies. Go. To edit studies, just. Go down to the ARS there's one that says relative, strength it looks just this relative, strength the, default, will be the SPX, okay, so. Right there that's the one you can just add that relative strength okay.
All. Right now. Communications. I'll, performing, a little bit, utilities. Utilities. Is typically. Kind of defensive, a defensive, sector and real. Estate has been doing fairly well but whatever a bit are top performers but where has money been rotating. Into. This. Year, well. It looks like. Industrials. Consumer. Discretionary and. Technology. May, be communications. As well okay, these, are all. Pretty. Cyclical. Type sectors. Pretty. They. Tend to do well, they. Tend to do well when the markets, doing well but when the market drops these, tend to drop. Pretty. Significantly, all these tend. To drop pretty significantly, so especially. I would say. Technology. Okay. Let, me move forward, because. I have just a couple minutes to go. Asset. Classes let's just see let's, look at a couple of these SPX. We already looked at that how our small caps doing compared to large caps. It's. About the same isn't it. Large. Caps. Small. Caps and, we can see that because, our relative, strength is, basically. Is. Basically. There as, well now, when. You're doing this this, is kind of giving us a general, idea in fact you can you, could if you wanted to make, investment, decisions just, off this relative strength and you know and do it that way certainly. You can do it that way it's not a recommendation but, it's, just that's, a relative strength analysis can you throw on another technical, indicator like a CCI. Absolutely. Or a. MACD. Absolutely. Or whatever you want you can throw, on another technical, indicator I don't have time to do that right now but. You could throw on another technical, indicator on, there, and, do, it you can add multiple. Indicators. On there okay. Let's look at bonds. What bonds our Treasuries, doing longer-term treasures look, at their performance for the year. Not. So hot right because when stocks are doing well usually, bonds, have a hard time keeping up with that even if they're positive they, don't they don't go up as much as stocks stocks, usually have more potential, in that regard. What. About. What. About. What. About international. Developed. Markets, not. Too bad, lagging. The US market though a little bit right, emerging. Markets not. Too bad, lagging. The US market little bit doesn't mean you, need to shun international. Just cuz they're lagging the US market in fact they can add a little diversification. There, to. It right, you can add a little diversification. To them now. Was it how about high-yield, how, are high-yield, bonds doing these are corporate bonds, and, this. Isn't the easiest, line, to see there but, up about 80 percent this year kind, of halfway between Treasuries. And stocks. That's. Not uncommon, not. Uncommon by the way let's. Do one more house. Gold doing. Underperforming. Again, gold tends to do pretty well when, the market as a whole does. Poorly. Gold does well but. When the markets doing well when, the stock markets do well gold tends to underperform, okay I like one more oil. Oil. Is killing it this year look at that up 37, percent a 37. Percent this, year that. Is that's, awesome okay. All. Right. I. All. Right now what, we do today, we. We. Reviewed. The. Economic, calendar kind. Of saw what was going on coming. Up this this. Week, we. Discussed training, plans and some of the kind of rules and guidelines of, how to use a trading, plan even. Though you're just going to be up to you to fill out the specifics, we talked about the relative performance of, different US sectors and asset. Classes. And. For. Next step I have. You, well. That I guess, you do is create a training plan of your own and. Create. Rain pie that's going to give you structure as you make your investing, decisions now. I pushed out a survey, link okay. I. Pushed. Out survey link I'd appreciate it if you'd fill that out it's, only five questions long I'm, gonna in this session soon in the next minute, or two and then. The survey link may go away pretty soon after that so, make. Sure. Make. Sure that, you click on that right now click, on that survey link right now fill. That out it's, really a quick survey believe, me I don't really like filling out long surveys I like short surveys that's, what you got you got a short, survey as I alluded to earlier. Cameron. May. Is. Coming. Up next, he's. Gonna be talking about the basics of value investing, all. Right and a. Reminder, that in order to demonstrate the functionality of platform, we, needed to use actual symbols, however. TD Ameritrade does not make recommendations, or determine the suitability of any security or strategy for individual traders and the investment decision you make in your self-direct account is. Solely responsibility. Everyone. Thank you very much appreciate. Appreciate. You taking some time out of your day joining. Me and we. Will see you.
Same. Time next week bye. Bye everybody.
2019-05-14 10:22
