NQ Day Trading 2016-05-31
hey this is brandon and this will be my chart review for tuesday last day of May May 31st um I have somewhat of a somewhat severe injury in my mouth I bit my tongue a couple days ago and it was one of the worst ones I've ever had so it's a little bit difficult to talk and I can't quite move my tongue comfortably the way I normally do so i apologize if if I'm if difficult to understand or anything like that but I wanted to start doing this chart review somewhat regularly hopefully every day and of course I think you know Ray's forwarded a couple of my videos previously I'm going to keep these on my youtube channel as a unlisted video because I want to get into the details of some of these trade setups and of course I don't want to just give away everything for free on my public youtube channel so I'll keep these videos unlisted I'm not sure how ray is going to disseminate them but he he does want me to do these and and make them available to to all the members so I hope you enjoy these for me I I'm somewhat selfish in my motivation for doing these videos as I I believe that learning a strategy like this a trading strategy like this for me personally the the West the best way for me to learn is to pick apart my chart every day look at the trades that I took look at the setups and just try to hammer at home psychologically speaking I believe that when I review the chart like this it it reinforces and it gives my mind evidence further evidence that the strategy works that following the rules at all times results in profitable trading even if I and today I had a horrible day I was I basically had a maximum loss and of course I'm on simulator so um but yeah I traded very poorly today and um and so I don't know it's i just am but i didn't follow the rules very well basically where I where I mostly lost it was was right in here I started buying and I I managed to open up a three contract long position and then took like a three three and a half point loss or something like that and that was enough to push me right up to almost five hundred dollars down for the day and and so you know I basically had to quit simulator training and start simulator simulator trading I still traded but it was what I call sim sim but anyway that's not the point my point is that I believe if we if I review the trade setups not only do I get a better understanding of what the price action looks like when there's a good setup versus a bad setup but it also continues to give my mind that that constant evidence that converts me into a believer that's you know someone who firmly believes in the setups in the rules and you know the better I get at believing those things the easier it will be it'll be second nature for me to come in here and trade every day according to those beliefs I'll just be expressing my beliefs you know like I believe that when the 200 EMA is sloping down I should only be looking for shorts or when it's sloping up I should only be looking for lungs and if I if I believe that then it won't be difficult to follow that rule as I'm trading um I'll just be expressing my beliefs which is I believe that's what any of us does at any point in time we're just expressing our beliefs whatever they happen to be at that moment so anyway enough about that today I'm I you know I zoomed out and I'm noticing a theme and I just I just alluded to it a minute ago is that in general we kind of wanted to just focus on the direction of the 200 moving average and notice it's sloped up here and pretty much unless we bought at the very highs if we had bought somewhere in the lows we would have had successful trades and then it rolls over here and you get this dramatic drop and all of a sudden the 200 rolls over and now it's sloping down and so same thing here let's just look for shorts do we want to go short way down here at the loews right into this previous support no you know you're going to have a loser if you're going short at the very lows but pretty much you can look for a pullback and go short take any pullback short and and most of those trades would have worked out now there were several periods today we're all the EMAs kind of bunched together and we really needed to just sit on our hands this is a great example here this is also the first 15 minutes of the of the New York session so I I skipped the first 15 minutes anyway but notice that all the EMAs are kind of gathered together here i have this alligator teeth EMA now on my chart and that's the alligator ate and for the most part it's it's telling you when you're in a trend and when it's when the eight is swinging above and below the alligator ate then that's a time to say on the sidelines and today was tricky no doubt I mean it just it wasn't just a clean downtrend there was definitely a bearish bias but there were these periods of bullish price action in here and then really rangy and then a nice move down and really rangy and then all of a sudden got this spike up and I didn't really see any good way to enter that and then all of sudden it was crashing again and we had decent this was about one of the only straight forward areas in my mind and is this was this was decent and I caught a nice trade up here on my sim sim account but this this right here was probably the most straight forward period of the day where it was just a clear downtrend and you had a couple of 89 bees that work like a charm you had a t20 here that I didn't mark another 89 be a couple 34 bees everything just worked out perfectly and there was one little tricky loser down here where if you taken this 34b and I didn't market you you probably would have been stopped out at breaking plus 1 depending on how you manage your your your trades that go your way and then you know then all of a sudden we had this rally out of hell and I don't I try not to trade after 230 central so I marked this last 34 be here which was an amazing trade if you had the foresight to just hang on to that for 20 points but anyway so I'm going to zoom in here let's talk about some of these setups like I said it was tricky today I thought it was pretty pretty damn tricky um I got a pretty late start so normally I like to start trading in about 8 45 central but I didn't I didn't take my first trade until gosh was it way over here ten o'clock little after ten o'clock central but anyway this is all garbage the EMAs are all woven together there and then you get kind of a break out here and it's it's tough to know that this one's going to work because it looked like it was going to break higher here and then it failed looked like it was going to break higher here and it failed so how do you know this one's going to work well I think there's a couple of clues you can see it's continuously making higher lows and the EMAs are starting to fan away from each other with the eighth leading the way and the 34 is definitely turning up there the 89 is going from flat and starting to curl up there and the 200 is going from flattened it's also starting to curl up so I apologize i'm using this i'm cheap so i'm using this free version of bandy can and it only allows me to record up to a 10 minute video so what I do is I record several ten-minute segments and then I patch them all together with windows movie maker so I'm sorry about that someday I'll I'll I'll break out the piggy bank and buy a real version of a screen capture software but anyway so I was talking about these emas and they're all fanning out we've got the eight that crossed above the alligator ate and everything's starting to point upward here and you get a couple of nice signals i circle both of these this was a really nice bullish bar it's a 39 be a 30 excuse me 34 be 39 be 200 be gosh you could even call it a 210 with the long-term stochastic rising here and the little hook on the short term but anyway that's a really nice signal bar there and you have to go long right into this double top um so you know I I would totally understand wanting to skip that trade but maybe when you get this it breaks higher by one tick and it pulls back here and gives you what what I would call a breakout pullback um you know and again it's another 34 be um not quite an 89 be but it's another sort of a t10 signal here um I think you grab grab along on one of those two bars and you get your twelve ticks right here right ahead of a pivot so um in a course here I I would have I think the idea here would be to skip any long setups just based on that pivot being right there and it looks like you know that's on the far right side of your chart it looks like the pivots getting some respect their right and so you get this long setup right there with a nice bullish close above the eight it's a 34b but you don't really have enough room to scalp out there there's only a couple of points there and not the twelve ticks that you need to get up to that high and the pivot is right there so I think we need to skip that set up and you know depending on how you manage your positions there's a good chance you get stopped out right there right and for it it takes off so I just put a purple circle around all this just indicating we should okay sorry about the interruption i still have my day job doing technical support on the phones so so i have to pause it every once in a while if i get a call but anyway I had this circled in purple just to indicate I don't think it's a great idea to take any trades right into that pivot it looks like they did probably would have worked out maybe this 89 be here or the 89 be here certainly would have worked but you know I think we need to be patient and just kind of skip those those sorts of sets up setups because with that pivot right there it could very easily turn right back down so the next trade I marked it was this this t10 right here there's a very distinct rollover of the long-term stochastic it's very clearly headed down there it keeps bumping up against this this price level here as well so it's a multiple top there there was a little bit of a trap here where it looked like it was going to break higher but then it quickly reversed and so we get kind of a double top Triple Top quadruple top whatever here and more importantly at least for my trading plan is you start to get this long-term stochastic rolling over and then you get the short term right here and on that close right there i went ahead and Mark that trade as a short it's always a little bit sketchy to me to take these type of trades because for the most part I'm trying to go long when the eight is above the 34 not short and I'm trying to go short when the eight is below the 34 not long as I marked here however it seems like when you get really rangy price action it seems like you're like it's better to look for basically any excuse to go short near what looks like highs and any excuse to go long near what what looks like blows because uh you know in a trading range of course you want to short the highs and by the lows and so I think that's the way we have to think about it unless there's just a very clear trend um you know so an example of of where you wouldn't want to do that would be like right here this is a pretty clear trend that the 200 even is pretty pretty angled downward here and it looks like you've got lows in here but if you start trying to buy these lows in this area um never mind haha I don't know so so it's a it's a little bit of a confusing thing for me still um but nonetheless I do like the t1000 matching highs in this area and that long term rolling over i like that t10 short right there and that's good for twelve ticks not really much more and then you get a similar setup here you have kind of all these matching lows in this area you get that triple bottom right there and really technically there's a there's a t7 right here and a 200 be notice the 200 moving average here you get that double bottom and the Knights bullish close right here above the eight and that would have been a safe trade as well if you go along right there and your stop is a couple of ticks below these lows you're safe and it works out for the scalp and then really basically the same thing here and I think you also get the t1 here where you have that fractal mark here and you get that bullish bar and there's the second bar and and as soon as prices tick higher than the second bar that gives us the t1 the paint bar here which I don't have on my platform so I mark the trade from right there and get twelve ticks on that one as well and that's a multitude of signals here they the the long-term stochastic is starting to rise right here although that's a bit questionable but certainly you have a triple bottom there so it's a t7 and you also have the 200 bounce here where we crossed below the 200 reversed and closed above the eight that's a clear 200 bounce then that works out for a nice long then I mark this we have a drastic drop here and the ATM a cut through the 21 it cut through the 34 you get really nice bearish closes in here so the mark that was selling off really quickly here I don't believe you would have been able to get a fill with a limit order but certainly just a market sell order would have gotten you short somewhere in this area as the eighth broke through those other moving averages and it just slices right through that previous support right here and definitely we would have been good for a 12 tix caliper or even more then we get a nice t25 these are always a little bit questionable to me when you have that much angulation you have such a drastic pull away from the eight and then you take that first t25 setup that's always a little sketchy but in this case I mean I wasn't trading yet at this point in time but it was such a nice bearish Moo they're so fast that you're probably going to get another leg down here and so I like that for a t25 and of course your stop is safe and you get a 12 tix scalp right in here so again I I did we've had quite a bit of angulation here and prices have pulled really far away from the ATM a I mean it did it once over here but the second time you really have to be suspicious of any further short setups at that point so I just put a note here angulation and also we have the long-term stochastic that's rising here and if you're a counter trend trader there's a really nice t10 nice little clothes right above the eight right there and this also it ticks higher they're giving you the t1 counter-trend long rising long-term stochastic in the short term curls and hooks there so that would have been a nice long oh and no this is another thing I noticed with the price action today you know we had mainly a downward bias for a lot of the recession and but we kept getting these t20s where the eight crosses over the 34 so that's technically a long signal and this one might have even worked when the eight crosses through and you go long right there it probably would have been good for a scout let's just see 17 in the quarter and it goes up to 20 and a quarter so that's just barely twelve ticks right there if you go along right there at 17 and a quarter but what I notice is that this first t20 kind of runs into the 89 moving average it makes it a little bit higher but eventually it keeps heading down and then you have your your same thing right here you get a t20 the eight crosses above the 34 but you're running into that 89 and in this case it eventually broke out I didn't mark any trades here this was just a pure counter-trend breakout trade which I don't believe work out enough times to to make them a profitable strategy I mean that's just a pure breakout and all these matching highs keeps me from from even thinking about trying to go wrong right there okay I had a pretty long interruption there so I don't remember where I was which trade I was talking about I believe I was talking about how the t20s to the long side didn't didn't seem to work out too well today um it was almost like you don't want to take the t20s into the downward slope 289 um but on the other hand the t20s on the down on the way down seemed to work ok and that was that was the first trade that I took was actually a t20 on the way down I don't take the 200 pounds that's not a setup that I use but that is a pretty good 200 bounce right there it goes above the 200 and then closes right there below it below the eight but again it's it's to me it's one of those counter trend trades the 89 be ends up being a counter trend trade a lot of the time as well if you consider the eight and 34 relationship to indicate your trend so so I mainly stick to the T tends and the t25 and the t2s and sometimes the 34 bees although a lot of times with the 34 be you've got a long-term stochastic that's kind of going against you so those always seem a little sketchy to me but anyway I i didn't manage this trade correctly this was a legitimate t20 the eight cross below the 34 right there nice bearish clothes so I went short at the close of that price closing price of that bar but I only had I believe an 11 tick stop and really I should have had more like a 15 or 16 tick stop a couple of ticks above that previous high and you see it would have been perfectly safe and it also would have been one of the longest trades of my life because if I've got a 16 tick stop which of course is my biggest allowable stop according to my trading plan then I have to go for at least a 16 tick target which would have eventually been filled way over here but I would have had to sit through all of this notice my stop still would have been safe two tix above that previous high just barely by a single tick and invent eventually it gives me the 16 right there um but what I ended up doing is I got stopped out and then I thought that we had a t20 to the long side so I went long and and and then that was a loser and then I went short and short some more and that was a loser and then I went long and took a win finally and then I went long here and took a loser and then I started thinking well this is all support here so I'm just gonna buy these lows and I ended up buying three contracts and took a big loss there and then and then I was you know I was I hit my maximum loss so from that point forward it was cincin so I don't really want to discuss my actual trades too much just just bear in mind that that was that was I mean should have started the day with a big win if I had managed that correctly with my stuff in the right place so anyway there's a t20 here and then you get another 200 bounce there and a 34 bounce and but that the EMAs are all tangled up with each other in here and it starts to fan out and then it runs into this triple bottom and it's just real rangy in here so it's in my mind it's pretty tough to recognize when you're entering this type of choppy range rangy price action and that's definitely a huge skill to to to acquire in trying to learn how to trade this strategy and it would have been some major fortitude to sit through that short position through all of this but you know patients would have been rewarded and certainly I should have recognized that you know the eight is swinging you know it's above the alligator ate it's below it's above it's you know they're tangled up it's above its below it's above it's below so that's a really really good indication of choppiness and so once I was stopped out of this ideally I would have had my stop here and would have been safe but if I you know once I got stopped out here in reality then as difficult as it would be i should have just been sitting on my hands for all this and that's what I that's what I'm indicating here with the rectangle it's just that the EMAs are all tangled up and the 200 is essentially flat the 89 is certainly flat the 34 can't figure out where it's going so it's just a time to sit on your hands um and then I mark this this was a really nice move down it reminds me of this over here and of course we had that nice move down and then the t25 boom and so we have another nice move down it's almost like a repeat pattern and and then a t25 and also a t2 and that's a nice trade right there so and then I also think of this this to me is a is what I would call a breakout pullback where we have all these matching loves it breaks lower and gives you a nice book bearish clothes below that those previous lows comes back here and test that breakout area almost to the tick and then you get that nice bearish bar again so I think that's a good place to go short and there's some short setups here some closes below the eight some tea to looking type setups certainly that right there is that it looks like the t2 but I don't think it's wise to go to be going short into this pivot here um and and so you gotta you gotta skip that of course I was I don't know what I was doing here doesn't really matter and then we get another situation here where the eight and the alligator ate and the 34 and the 21 and even the eight and nine they're all tangled up um and at best you could have had well I guess you could have you could have gone long down here and had a really good trade but it's you know it's just so trappy there it's so ambiguous there's just no no good clue to tell us where prices are headed next so obviously i was i was going short and getting stopped out perfect and going short and getting stopped out perfect and going short and getting really stopped out so I needless to say I had a really rough time but I was in my simulator send a simulated simulator account at that point so anyway we get and this is almost kind of like a repeat pattern of what we had where was it kind of over here we got all those matching highs and we had the long-term stochastic curling down and we've got a couple of different t10 type setups during that move and that turned out to be a decent trade and then we get the same thing here and it turns out to be a monster notice that long term stochastic is clearly rolling over it isn't right there i mean i would say it's still pretty flat right there but certainly when you get into this area and you get this next little hill on the short term that that was a good t10 i think right there and then you get another one right here and by that time man the long term is really rolling over and I actually went short right in this area at that nice bearish clothes and I went short right there ah and when I guess me a little bit and i ended up I put my target way down here and actually stepping away from my screen so that's my best trait of the days when I was when I wasn't actually watching um besides you know entering the trade right here well we get we do get a t20 kind of an ambiguous but whether it crosses here or or in here but definitely some some support there at the 89 but then it blasts through and then they just they have a whole lot of traders trapped on the long side this is too much this is too steep you know it looks when you see this you think okay we're starting a new uptrend at least that's what they want you to think but it's just too violent too steep like when you get a good trend it usually doesn't start that crazily let's just say this had a slightly flatter slope to it although there's not a whole lot of difference there um so yeah I mean I don't know you look at that and look at that you know this one failed and this one obviously just took off like a rocket what was the difference um you know it's tough to say you could have very easily been trapped right there that's a that looks like a 34b to me well I guess there is a difference here is look at the long-term stochastic by the time you get that close over the eight look where the long-term stochastic is and look at the angle of it right there is that close so you know that that looks pretty suspect and it turns out to be totally suspect it's just a huge trap traps a whole bunch of traitors to the long side and then they all have to exit and it drops like a stone versus over here you've had this launch and it pulls back and by the time you get a close over the eight you're still almost over by your just a little bit under the overbought 80 level um you know but maybe maybe you use your fractals here and you wait for a breakout higher than that that would have saved you over here if you said well I'm not going to buy until I get a break above that fractal and try suit once try as a second time boom it fails over here you could say okay I've got a close above the eight the long-term stochastic is still fairly high and then you could say well I'm not going to go long until I get a break above that nuttin what I'll tell me that'll kind of confirm it like hey we're going higher especially considering there's that pivot right there so that might turn out to be resistance so maybe that's a good way to to take that long but for me it wouldn't really mad because it's after 4 30 at that point here well actually for its its it's actually 229 so not quite 230 central time I said 430 I meant to 30 um but anyway it you know if you're looking for a difference between this launch and this lunch this one failed this one succeeded I think that's one of our clues is that long-term stochastic gonna keep setting lower here versus here it's still overbought pretty much and then you get that break out anyway I thought this was a good t10 set up and I went ahead and put my target way down here right right around those matching lows area got my fill I was away from my screen for this nice little t25 not sure I would have had the guts to take it because there looks like there's a lot of support here and you have the pivot but at the same time the bias has definitely been bearish at that point in the day and that's a really nice move um you know there's there's definitely some selling coming in big time there so yeah you know the the people that are buying down here there's a pretty darn good chance that they're just going to get trapped there buying these lows thinking it's going to move like that again and and there's just too much momentum on the bearish side so there's another t25 right there actually nice little full candle revert a pullback and a nice full candle continuation there's another t25 right here nice bearish candle there and at this point we've got severe angulation we've got a rising long-term stochastic um and we've got big-time divergence on the mac do you know I try not to pay too much attention to this because I'm not looking for counter trend trades which this would have been right there and look at that separation it was huge separation between the eighth and 89 even 234 so that's a great counter trend trade right there but I think at the very least I need to pay attention to the MACD if for no other reason than to avoid taking those shorts in this type of area and and that was certainly the lesson learned here is I went short it was a what I thought of a t2 was a t2 and it did go my way eight or nine ticks and then went right against me um and like I said before this was kind of like the most straightforward price action of the day in my mind there was a t20 right here I went short and I added on and I added on again and so I had a three contract position I took one off right here and then I added on again for the 34b and took one off right here again so I was like eleven ticks and twelve ticks i believe and then I got stopped out on my remaining two contracts here at at plus four or five tix right there but yeah we got an 89 be nice clothes below the the ATM a and notice again here's that t20 buy signal but in general looks like it's not a good idea to take a t29 or t20 right into the 89 so you get an 89 be there eventually works yet another 89 beating now I wanted to make a note here and I watched a couple of videos from the patient trader and how he manages his stops and I do a very similar thing I use a minimum of 10 tix for my stop and you notice the clothes right here is at 5 45 05 even so my 10 ticks top would be at 40 50 750 which of course is up here in would have been safe for this this only goes up to 45 07 even but if you had your to stop two tix above there you would have got nailed right there anyway there's another a and B that's good there's another 80 90 here that's good and then a couple of 34 bees those are both good and then of course we get the big reversal here and we discussed this this was a good 34 be close right above the eight right there I mean really at that point in time that's actually a t2 as well because technically the long-term stochastic right there is still over but it's essentially still overbought as this is starting to curl up so you could even go along right there i wouldn't i'd wait for the close above the eight if I'd have been trading at this point in time um but that was the last trade that I mark that's right at the 230 Central and what a crazy round you had after that so crwth that's about it for me today my mouth is hurting my tongue is hurting so I hope but I hope you enjoyed the video hope it helps you in some way again for me I'm I'm I'm doing this for my own self-interest not that I I mean I i like it i would certainly be happy if anybody else gets some benefit from these if for no other reason than to see you know another trader struggling with the same things that you're struggling with um you know and and just to get that reinforcement and to get it out I'm all about beliefs as far as trading psychology uh goes i am i'm a believer in Mark Douglas in his work and I that we express our beliefs when we're trading when we're trading we believe prices are going to go higher we buy we believe prices are going to go lower we sell we're in a position and it's not working out and we believe it is going to eventually work out we hang on to that loser and we let it go further and further against us if we believe prices are going to move a certain direction sometimes we don't even put a stop because we're so confident that prices are going to do what they think what we think they're going to do I used to make that mistake it's been a long time since I've traded naked like that because I you know I saw enough evidence to change my beliefs so that I became a believer in the idea that I never know what prices are going to do I can never predict where prices are going to go I can only believe in high probability setups that have a good likelihood that prices are going to go a certain direction but it's never guaranteed it's never a hundred percent um so anyway I'm kind of beating a dead horse here but I I do believe that I need to over time change my beliefs about trading and about price action and about the way the market moves etc and I believe that reviewing the chart like this in figuring out why prices did what they did in relation to the EMAs and the different setups that we look at that will kind of hammer home those beliefs to where they become second nature and they become entrenched in my mental system so anyway that's enough of that I hope you enjoyed it thanks for watching
2021-04-16 18:42
