Matchbook Trader Panel - Matchbook Traders Conference - Full version

So. Welcome, guys. And. I. Mean let's start, with. You. Telling about yourself, your journeys, as, to how you got into trading. Should. We start with start with you Dan where, it all started and also a little bit about how you define your strategy, yes I'll say I, graduated. From, University, when. I was about 20 years old did a accounting. And finance degree so I kind of was, in quite comfortable with numbers and and focused, in in that, area educationally. And my, last sort of year year and a half of of university, I managed, to lucky. Enough to bump into someone who could, advantage, pay fruit machines in pubs and, yeah. Most. Of graduate with savings, which is not. Many people can say and. Try. To get some accounting, graduate jobs and. Competition. Is really quite tough in in that industry. You. Could have still make money playing playing, slots, on the side gave, myself six, months that's what I okay see how it goes did. It for about ten years. Primarily. It's just in the pub as it was so short-term, advantage playing, so you identify, when, the Machine was above and blood percentage. Targets. Laterally. I still. Stay in touch with some people and managed to get some quite good information. From, time to time which tends, to focus now, around, expected. Expected. Value calculations. I. Would. Say honestly now if machines. Were still good I'd still do it because it was the lowest. Of variants, possible, you had ever wished for and the. Money was made a consistent, and good, money. Dried. Up a bit and moved. Into online poker, did. It did a few years playing online poker. Which. And I enjoyed but then as you're, probably aware with your background as well yeah we, have Black Friday and, all. The all the Americans, kind, of pretty much disappeared, overnight and, primarily. When you're playing online poker you're looking and so identify, who the bar players are to take the money off and. A lot. Of those pliers disappeared, quite quickly and it was look a bit of it will. Cause a shark vested everyone's trying to this money, is circulating, around the table and no one's talked taking off each other and there wasn't so much of an edge and, then moved into sports really because I was looking for something else to do I've always been good with numbers and. Yeah. Look towards football initially it didn't work out great and then. Found tennis and tennis really isn't I'll. Save my number one sport in terms of a fan but maybe that provides me with a bit of an advantage over someone. Who is a fan because I can look at things more objectively, you, know people sometimes, I get emailed and so how can you bet against watch a federal cause he's a legend, it's. Not a legend he's a legend voice of tea but it's not a legend personally in my because I'm not really a fan if that makes sense so you're principally, an in played tennis trader yes, so basically. Kind. Of momentum, is one, in two years ago when I did a presentation how, David momentum, over kicking, and.

Going. Against momentum, is is quite a big thing with me so I developed quite, a lot of stats in. Place that's just you can't really get commercially. Because. I wanted them for my own purposes, to. To. Look at opposing, players with momentum, and so players may be leading by like, a second break for example they're training really low in price and then you can try and you know looking. At opposing. Those players when they're when they're leading and in a dominant position kind, of thing as, a few other spots as well with primary, risk. High reward types type stuff alright let's, go to camp now can you. And Peter are probably. Leaders, in also, the education, of trainers your blog from. Oh, - aha so tell, us you, know you started you know mayor at aha I love, that. Okay. So my, journey into sports. Trading, to start a political accident. I, come. From the, recreational hunting side. Of things. Beforehand. I was just bait and purely on on horse racing and quite. Frankly I didn't that was doing, as. Many do the. Time I was in the military I was in the army and. I served overseas in Afghanistan, and they've. Sort of come to one of those transitional. Points within my life where it was like what's going on the only I. Want. To live a little bit longer restart. And. Secondly at the same time I found, out was gonna be a father so I needed to sort of address the financial situation in my life. Didn't, have any grades or qualifications. Or you know advanced. Stuff like that and we've all been in that spot but in your case your children were caught hey I know how to deal with this let's, start Barrymore. Perfect. But. Fortunately that turned out quite well for me yeah so it. Didn't go well down well with those around me for quite a long period but, come. Out on the other side and sports, trading in horse racing markets, is what and it's been about six seven years although. And Peter you are probably one of the pioneers, I think I read that you, joined Betfair, was seven, days after it opened so this is like ninety nine or something that's yeah, it was in June 2000, I. Think it was the 18th of June 2000, was the exact date not, that I've aged it on my favor. But. Some I was a little late that a party I don't think I tried back there to like nine or ten days after they yeah. I was in. Consumer, technology, bizarrely and I'd, always had an interest in financial markets, and that. Was gonna be my escape from the corporate life so. I'd gradually, worked my way in. A, long and winding road up, the corporate ladder and. I'd sort of reached the point that a lot of people reach which is that you, sort of think I can't do this any longer. The. Business, plans were the same every year which was basically the same as last year plus, twenty percent but you're not getting anybody else to help you do it and, I. Sort of realized after, a long period of time that. I. Was gonna have to make a break at some point so the break for me was going to be financial, markets that's where I was gonna go I'd messed around on them for years and I. Thought I'm just gonna give this a proper, go and, it was at that point that betting exchanges, came. To the fore and I. Had gambled in the past but. Bookmakers. Had banned me and, you. Know I realized, it was just a dead end the over rounds were massive and there was just no advantage, and there was no way that I was going to do it for a living it just wasn't gonna work so financial, markets were gonna be where it was go. For me but then exchanges. Came along and I. Remember. Sitting, in a board. Meeting with. My laptop open and everybody. Thought I was making notes but in fact I was closing a footsie up down position, which. Was. Heavily, in the money at that point which I feared, by the end of the meeting would have lapsed for. Zero and. I. Got, called over afterwards and one of the guys saw what I was doing and it was at that point that I thought well I've really got to go. Make a go of it if I'm gonna do it seriously, and. I like the concept and, I think that there's an opportunity here, then I've got to make the break so turned, up to do the annual business review, and. Just put up one slide which was find a replacement for Peter and. That's how my journey started and, I'm and it's been a great journey and I'm here now seventeen, and a half years later and, of course in addition, to. Being, successful trader, you've built really one of the the anchors, of trading, sports. Trading which is which has been angel and stuff like that so you're very involved with the software behind it now. Your, tennis, then you're, mostly in horse racing man and and Peter, you're involved in soccer and pretty much everything yeah I do okay if there's enough liquidity I'll train it before.

We Open up these general questions I mean is. There something about your guys strategies. That, that is tailored to those sports you know when you get, together is, there stuff you guys take from each other or are you kind of like well I know, he's successful, but I couldn't do that I mean could you be in racing could you be in tennis, and vice versa it's funny enough because we kind of spoke about that sorting early and I said if I was doing what you do maybe think, about looking at this angle and stuff like that so yeah we did kind of talk about that yeah we, approach things very different ways but kind of come around to a similar, yeah. Result yeah yeah. Yeah. I think at. The at the core of trading, I think there are many ways of trading so, if, you're, a value guy. Necessarily. You're looking to spot value or as Dan said a second ago a momentum, in tennis is you. Can see it in the markets you know a set, and a break down you realize the price is very different from, perhaps where it should be but I think there are so many different ways of trading and so, many different ways of participating in the market that there's there's room for many different types of strategies but, typically. My. Way of trading comes from financial markets so I look. At value and I look at opportunity, but I consider myself to be selling volatility, that's what I consider, my role is within the market if, people panic the price moves too far away from what I consider to be a decent, price then I'll correct, it I am part of that mechanism. That makes the market efficient, so. We any, questions, yet I don't want to. They. Also talk about, pretty. Similar thing to you about the, Americans of leaving, the games if. We ever did see it, influx of Americans onto the exchange would, you see that as a bad thing or a good thing in the long run my, initial. Point of view there would be there would be a really good thing yeah. No. Offense to Jesse. No. Offense suggests a but I found American, gamblers are generally quite bad with their money and. The. American people, I know kind, of as friends also they have seem, to have quite a disposable, income that they're quite keen, to beep. Off Oh Rob, if that makes sense so yeah I would think it's a massively good thing and for me the. Biggest positive one, the biggest positive fugitive, elements that could actually happen it's. Hoping yeah. From. You Peter and, it may be an old one you said if you gave me a thousand, pounds now I, can, give you two thousand pounds next week but if you gave me a hundred thousand, I can only give you one hundred and two sort. Of in two is that still true intimating, that that, actually all the opportunity, for traders right now is still really limited by market size I think. That the, market could cope. With a lot more liquidity and that's that's yeah I've been to the US frequently, over the last ten years or so with. The goal of trying to gain, some traction mainly. Through talking to people you. Know trying. To but, of course you know you have, a lot, of things to go through there mainly legislation. But. Depending. Upon how, you decide to trade as well you'll get a slightly different answer so, certainly. For the way that I trade, if. You gave me a thousand I could still give you two thousand back but. If you gave me a million then. You're severely restricted, so if, you look at the average UK race it is about half a million pounds, and. So. The. More, liquidity that we get the better and to be honest I really thought that after all of this time we would be at the stage where an individual, racing market would be doing millions, and. That's sort, of where I want, to see the whole exchange concept, go I'm not talking about specifically. You, know one exchange, partner or another I want, to see it absolutely massive and if the u.s. came on board then, that would be absolutely, massive and. I'm hoping that all, of the US citizens live up to Dan's expertise.

Because. That would be massive for us as well I I resemble. As I said I joined, that fair nine, days after open still, yet to have a winning year there so I mean you know you. Definitely. And. Anybody. Else just just shoot your hand up and we'll bring a mic around. This, is to come on mainly. For. A premium charge. I assume, you're paying it I guess. You are how, much does I actually fight you. Charge. As well so they dance as well of course it's a tricky, topic I think. For a lot of people to discuss in public properly because. Everybody. Everyone is huge incentives to avoid it basically. Quite. Openly everybody, wants to avoid it I think. All. Three of us either deal will have written. For Betfair in recent, times as well it's quite difficult for us to answer questions, like that really I think. It's. A good question because it. Is an, issue within. The industry and that and that is why your, match books. Exist. Because there's a positive. Outlet there for that sort of money so the bizarre thing and you, know one of the issues that I have with the premium charge is as, the markets have become more efficient over time the great thing about exchanges. Is the over round now is absolutely minimal, it's absolutely, tiny so the, edge that you're having to overcome to be able to make money is. The smallest that it's ever been in the history of this. Type of market in betting in general, so, the bizarre thing about the premium charge is that it makes no sense for me to bet on, bet, fair so, all of that activity and all of that business goes elsewhere, which. Doesn't, seem to make any sense to me but obviously from, our, sponsors, today that makes fantastic, news. It. Just seemed a bit contradictory, yeah. There must be a better dividing, line well you could say that the premium, charge it goes hand-in-hand with you, know the Commission structure I mean Ronan Ryan if you're before lunch he said he's counted, is that 864. I think he said different, Commission. Structures, for financial, exchanges, we're, certainly have, a lot of different ones in in, the sports, exchange as well you know are we are we clear, right. Now is it clear what's. Best for the different groups I think the main problem with premium charge is the way it's calculated, because, it's very flat across the board there's. Not like an annual, allowance or something like that though before bear in my opinion but obviously. They've got a factor in people. Doing different things different edges caught ciders people. Taking a lot of money other market via. Other, means yeah. And I think the, problem for me is I was miles, over, the limit when, its first introduced, and when it was revised I was there had no chance to mitigate it absolutely, no, chance but, people who are below it now do get, the opportunity to mitigate it before they've reached that level so, it's totally unfair on people like me although you could argue that I was one of the people actually helped, create it in the first place by. By doing too well but, um I you know I think there is a better model having come and spent. A lot of time in financial, markets I'm used to a nice en of pure exchange. Where. You pay a transaction charge, now I don't want to pay transaction charges but. By the same measure I don't want my, profits to vanish because I'm risking, my own money on my own terms to, put. That through the market and I should be rewarded for that not punished that's, how I feel. I'll. Be interested if you give a couple of examples when, Oh things. That might make you make the trade so selling volatility, a couple of examples of when, when you would do that and. Yeah. For. Example no I'll give the example it'd be like what's your dream scenario yeah once, it wakes you up in the middle of the night. The. Thing. For me would be like if is the perfect storm pretty much so you're looking at maybe looking at her posing this, is give the example of opposing a player with momentum like we were talking about earlier so you'd, look at you'd. Have the stats that you generate, before, the match so you would you would know whether a player had a poor, recovery or good, recovery or poor deficit, they're. Bad at leading over bad a front running and perhaps. More vulnerable and surf Mavericks tougher. But then you could also put that in conjunction we would like to imply statistics, as well so for example, give. A real broad example, that. Guy has a second break up might have literally. Just taken his chances convert, the two break points that, he's that, he's faith leader Sawyer has received in that game and then the guy is losing theirs by wasting. And abundance of chances, and could. Easily you. Know he's people, are gonna be they've been the better player but not taking his chances and then you can kind, of marry the two things up the stuff you identified before no matter no stuff in play as well kind of in.

Conjunction With each other quite. Well. What. About you can I mean sounds like Danis, very nice rated yeah if we move, over towards a horse racing market so I'd say. Situations. Where there's not. A lot of information on offer a lot, of uncertainty, and fear. Within. The market so sort, of the first thing that springs to mind is like burly Barney curly runners. If. You've ever watched one of them shame, he's retired yeah sure if you've ever seen one of them in the past on the ladder disk it's crazy yeah and, that. Them sort of situations, the market, talks to you more. So. A bit from, my point of view so I prefer that yeah. I think I think you could give several I know what the perfect trade is I've scored, it in my head ten out of ten and. It, happens just, not very often so you're generally dealing with the graduation, of opportunities. Some. Are all for that you definitely shouldn't take advantage and summer slam dunkers and, and. You need to do everything you can but, I think there are two key, things. That I see in the market that repeats on a regular basis the first one is overreaction, so, I sat, down with a hardcore. Racing, a gambler. Who used so much information about this horse and you could see the price was coming in and coming in and coming in he's going well it's, gone up in trip it ran well last time on this ground exception, inception and. He wouldn't back it he. You know he sort of he. Was, from. A training perspective you want to back it and see the price to come all the way, but. From a betting perspective, he was just sort of saying well there's no way that the price should be coming in so I can't. Initiate, this trade and I, said to him but it's coming in he goes yeah but there's no reason why it should do and I said but it is that's. Happening right now but, what you often tends to find is that when momentum, builds for a big trade like that it goes too far and all, of a sudden it's, way beyond what could be accepted as reasonable, value and it will correct before the start of the race it's just a question of how long is that going to take and how much times you have that trade to do the. Other thing I'll add into the mix as well is you look at major, meetings, where.

You Have a jockey that wins two or three races and guess what happens, everybody. Starts backing the jockey on the next horse in the next, race even. If it's got absolutely no chance of winning and that makes for a perfect trade, but, it's a terrible bet but, you try and stop people from doing that it's a bit like what Dan said earlier about separating. The fanaticism. Yeah, trade, in what you see your rather than what you want to see I mean. It sounds like Dan actually. Forms. Opinions, does staff and analysis do. You guys more lean towards I don't want to know anything, I don't want to have an opinion and is it more just about the market for you I mean is. Analysis, overrated, in your. The. Terms of analysis you're talking in there I think like horse racing the media type stuff you see from. Horse racing on TV are completely ignore it I definitely. Agree on that it pretty much in Punta Punta tree on tennis, football, racing. Cricket. Is. Generally, not done from a value perspective so, it tends to be incredibly, misleading. Yeah. I. Would recommend anyone who wants, to try a tennis just put on me, the. Commentators. And. The. Commentators. In my opinion are driven, to have this innate desire to always look like their plight yeah, and become therefore their favor the front runner too much, and. They try and look for things to back their arguments, and points. Of the tournament in there yeah, to. Be avoided at all costs pretty much I think. One of the biggest things that you can gain from an, edge in the market I think it is important to an extent to know what. Value is or where the price roughly should be whether you're looking at the specific, pricing, of somebody winning, an event a tournament or some other aspect or. Whether you're looking at where it traits within the market because if. Manchester. United, odds, of six against. A team bottom of the league then that's obviously value and there's, probably something in there but if there are odds of 1.1, against, the team two places below them that's, a very different thing so you have to have some measurement, or general, perspective, but.

In Terms of knowing the detail us I think certainly can and I are, more interested, in order flow so, where you can do all the analysis you like you can say which horse is going to be backed on the ground and whatever but, if it's not being backed and they're going for something else it's, right in front of you all of that information in the market all, of the detail and knowledge that's within there for some reason is directing. You straight into that particular runner. So you go with that and you, know pure cold trading, is. Is. Is, how you would exploit that situation, so your ability to read the market outside of the forum and other stuff is quite important, within that but, you can use both but typically. Say that both, of our styles are typically trading, older flow like you're not coming up with that like a tissue I mean you. Know an actual, I've. Done it but it didn't, help, it. Made no difference to me. Hello. Yeah talking about all the flow there we, heard from the guy before, about. False, orders, being, put in on the stock market, and spoofing, does, that happen much. On the exchanges. Yes. Is. A very short answer. There. Is this game of cat-and-mouse going, on so, typically. At. Certain moments. In the market at certain price points you do tend to see false orders within the market, my. Attitudes. To that is that I you. Expect, it so, the, ability to read through that and see what the general trend within the market is more important, to me than realizing, that there is fast money there but typically. If you see a large order then, if, you know it's likely to be breached then it may just give a little bit momentum, but it it happens all over the place in. The sports markets general add to that kind of thing can you teach that skill or. Do, you think that is a lure the bowl so it is yeah it is the it's, it's. Funny because when you watch markets, I've now traded, nearly two hundred thousand, horse races and. When. You trade. That number of racers you see the patterns repeating again and again and again and again so after, you sit there and watch it for that length of time you. Begin to understand the dynamics of how that occurs and wide occurs in that particular, manner so you're sat there all of a sudden an order appears and you think I've seen this before I don't know exactly what's.

Gonna Happen next so it is possible to do it and you can't explain it but experiences. You can get extra value from this yeah, yeah experience, is an important part of doing that as well because not only do you have to identify, a situation, know what's, likely to happen age do you have time for Bulls to actually do something about it because. I mean you guys are all quite really. Open I mean you've made videos you, know let people watch you trade it it's quite open and I think there is sort of like this question about you know are you guys athletes, who are above, the rim or is there certainly is, our method really trans, mutable I mean how do you guys feel about the, people who have learned from you you know. That's. A good question I mean I get, emails quite regularly. From. People. Appreciating. Whoa whoa, yeah, stuff, that they can learn. In. Context. But, then you were so probably get quite a few people who know I'm struggling because primarily. Because I got bankroll. Management or, discipline, and things like that so yeah I think, it's it's a lot of it's time to the individual, person as well. Yeah. You do hear from I think those people typically. They don't show a lot you. Might get one message and then never hear from ever again so. It's a little bit biased in. The. General general. Public you hear about people that, sort of unhappy, but the people that are kind of like you, know screwing. Their weight and off they go they don't. Yeah. I think the the difficulty, with trading is that, there's. Never a definite, yes or no - and. Your. Is in a gray area so you're sort of saying well this is likely to happen but there's a chance that it may not and so, I think psychology. Comes into play a lot and it's quite easy to identify. When. You see people who've got the right psychology, or not I've had a couple of great examples in the last couple, of days. But. One. Of the things that helped. Me evolve as a trader was understanding, that decision. Making process so I got really deep into the psychology of trading, and. Started looking at prospect, theory which if you've never read, up on it or you don't know what it is wicking. It straight away and. Start reading up on it because it describes how people treats. Profits. Very different from losses and how that influences, the decisions that they're likely to make so. When I when I'd read up on this and understood the way that it, influenced. The market then, from my perspective it allowed me to exploit, it but, from the general, market perspective even if you give somebody a really really, good strategy, that's, absolutely, perfect they, cannot lose money on they. Will lose much, so. You. You have to combine those components, together I think, there's a bit of analytical, stuff that Dan's talked about you, need to be able to understand and trade the markets but you also need to have your head in the right place to do it I think that just to out that applies a lot more thing to sort of pre race horse, trading because, the markets are more cinnamon driven there, is a lot more of that at play yeah, and this, is the part that's easily forgotten and the part that's not very glitzy and everyone wants to talk about but. It's. A huge, contributing, factor it is totally. Agree and if I do a video on psychology nobody, watches it if I do a video on how to make 150, quid in two minutes I'll, get loads of like sign and.

The, Fact is it should be the other way around. I paid. About. Ten years ago when you were kind enough to appear on do storm radio I think your turnover, was about well. In excess of a billion. Then. That was ten years ago what, is it today. The. It. Depends, how you I mean there are so many the. Difference between ten years ago and today for example is that I do, more markets, than I do now so. I'll, cover for. Example I picked, up and started doing gray hands again this year which seems a total madness because nobody does it it's very illiquid but. I just fancied the challenge of getting. Involved in that so. I must admit I don't know how much I've done in great hands this year but it would be pretty significant, I would think because there about a hundred races a day that you can participate on. But. For. Me part of the equation was not, understanding. That you could do something it was pushing the scale on which you could do it so, as people, know and often, take the mick out of me you, know it's a real rarity, today, for me not to have a laptop and to be trading right here right now because. It will always be, it's. Something that takes priority I only had one Saturday, off in 17 years. Simply. Because that's the biggest day of the week so I can't give you a definitive, answer on what it is but I'm much more active than I was 10 years ago double. Then isn't it double. I've. No I mean some for example I'm. Sort of at the stage in my life where I'm changing. Priorities a bit so. My. Children are old enough to to, gamble and trade themselves, so it's completely, my intention to hand over responsibility to. Them so. Wolverhampton. Race on a Tuesday, evening or, a Wednesday evening at. 7:30 that's, going to turn over 300,000. I'm not interested, in so, liquidity. Drops there but, when we get a big group on race on a Saturday I'm gonna be behind my desk armed to the teeth and the. Doors locked and nobody disturbs me for the rest of the day and I may not even go to the loo. So, I think you, know I've declined in some areas and growing in others but I'm a perpetual filter, so I'm sure there will be other markets I really would, love the, liquidity, to be so much higher than it is now because I would certainly, is. That affecting, you ROI I mean obviously you you know the bigger your bank gets then you are asked. To go down at the other thing yeah, any excess, capital gets, invested, basically, now so I spend a bit a bit more time investing. Now than. I used to ten years ago so any excess capital that, I can't use in the market goes and is, invested, or I'll. Have a punt, on VIX or something at some point in, the futures when. I'm back in multi Euler come on juice Dom I do again yeah yeah sure Thank You. Predictions. For the future of exchange. Betting either what, you think's gonna happen or what changes, you'd, most like to see I, think. You know if. The. U.s., came. On board then, that would be fantastic. I know there's a lot of activity, in Asia as well it's just none of it is above the ground. So, typically. Give the Asian market is huge but we never really see it in, the UK and I think if the US market took off that. Would be fantastic as well and from, my perspective I'm going to keep on pushing from, they even though there's not necessarily a benefit to me. Creating. That opportunity I would still love to see it happen if not for me for the people that follow, so. That would be the best thing I think that, the. Bitcoin exchanges. Are going to pop up inevitably, I think, that that will service markets, that can't be serviced by traditional, means but, that liquidity will probably not spill over into the. Traditional. And regulated. Exchanges. But. Nonetheless blockchain. Technology. May end up creating, an opportunity off the back end of that and changing. The way that exchanges, work but why. Not just trade blockchain, I mean what are just is it the same. Yeah. I mean it would I, think there will always be opportunities, the. Most important thing is because, the opportunity, is there and it's been proven that it's there and loads of people have done it I, don't think that you can pigeonhole, exchanges, back into the box. Whence they came, I think, that that will always be there it's just a question of the scale and scope of it so, I really hope that it will continue to grow, and and. That's half the reason I'm here today as well is that I think, that whoever, wants to support that will get my support as well. I. Thought, quite a bit about and similar, to what we were talking about earlier at all about. American, law so you'd like to say far east as well China but I mean I'm not I'm not holding my breath on Chinese not even on Facebook there so yeah not, sorbetto Faysal on the agenda with.

China But. For. Me like I grew up as I said I started, my gambling. Career playing playing a fruit machines and and, regular. Question that I would. Receive from from, friends and family and also other people with a. In. That industry other other programs or so what you're gonna do when it when it finishes and. Okay. Well maybe I need to have a backup on but I did, I also had a degree and I thought well okay, well let's. Worry about it a bit more when it actually happens, and so kind of kind, of rationalized. Myself, to be quite calm. About future, situations. And as long as I've got some smothered. Things on the. Back burner that I can turn my hand to then that's, not a major issue for me I thought I had about three years. In. The market I didn't realize that I was gonna be here 17 years later so. I worked furiously hard, for three years thinking that that would be it and the, fact is the fact it's gone on this long makes me think that it. Will continue in what, form I don't know or, how it evolves I don't know but I get the feeling that that, opportunity. Will continue did, you want to add something no so, it'd be nice to see exchanges, in the betting industry especially light flourish more in, a bit way rather, than turning into bookmakers, once they become. More. Dominant but whether. That happens that I really know I should be really immersed in truth is it's a much better way to if, you're, placing a bet on an, exchange then, the over round is going to be so small on. The. The. Cambridgeshire, at new markets I think, at SP dat 99.8%. Which. Is just mental, for a huge, field. Of that size and. Whichever way you look at it that's got. To be great value for money so, you, really want exchanges, to be the dominant leader within the market and when you look at the. Regulatory. Issues and the sort of press that they've been getting saying all these people have been losing so much money while I'm on exchange even if you are a loser it's gonna be significantly less, so, from an ethical viewpoint. It seems to make a lot more sense to. Promote an exchange over a bookmaker, that's gonna offer you one hundred and fifty hundred and sixty percent on the ground national I. Agree. With that, and. Anyone, yep I wouldn't, just sorry you, haven't had a chance yet yeah we'll come back. On. A beach somewhere probably, the. Kids, will be slugging, away on this 7:30 at Wolverhampton and I'll be finding a lot to ask them exactly how, well. We did. They. Won't have a choice. From, a personal perspective perhaps. I'll, see myself maybe, eventually as I get older moving, into more of an analytics, driven, field. Something. That I'm, trying to develop a little bit more as a side to thing at the moment and. That's. Kind of maybe where I'm looking. To head in, the longer term but, yeah. I haven't really given it a great deal of thought I think it varies depending upon your life goal because, when.

I Started the kids were toddlers and I was more concerned about making a bit of money but as, time wears on I think your, aims change a little bit. Sorry. Another one yeah yeah. It's a similar question to the yes chat before someone. Like me was quite still. Early days trading. There's. Always gonna be that worried about what the sort of future of exchange baiting is a, lot, of, people. In Britain are quite pessimistic about, pretty much every walk, of life so you hear a lot of doom and gloom in regards, to you, know certain, things I could happen want to be political, or why have you that. Could affect exchange trading. Which would completely, score everything for us is there in it any, worries from from, you guys obviously already benefit, from this do you have any worries about any political moves that might happen because we've seen quite a few shake ups these past few years is there anything significant, that could happen that would make you worry about your. Futures traders. Perspective. I don't see a great deal changing, primary. Because for. Example presumably. You're talking about the ultimate diamond gleam scenario would be like exchanges, a band or the government or something like that yeah I, don't. I don't see, that happening because the government had done kind of so much to try and like deregulate. Gambling, it would be a real, complete u-turn and they derive so much tax income. From, gambling. That. I don't see that as being a major objective from. From their perspective I mean so you look at the things that people would say are quite. Negative. To. Human, being as health for example alcohol. Smoking. Etc, everyone, accepts, that that's the case but, they're still allowed because they generate the tax revenue. And I, don't see I don't see obviously gambling doesn't, have to be negative towards someone's health but by, the same token it's they're still getting a lot of tax revenue, from that and it'd be, interesting to see how the, fobt. Price. Point gets gets picked out in an extra few three months been, but. The limit of between two and fifty pound Maxima stake is like how long's a piece of string so. It's. Difficult to say really birth in that will might give some form of of, guidance, as to their determination. In that in that field I mean. It's also you know how you define gambling. You, know that's a sort of an open question I'm, sure you, know a lot of your. Own view, of yourself is you're. Not a gambler, and a lot of professional, gamblers you'd say you know it's it's investing, I'm more related, you know I'm in the financial markets there is we were talking earlier about you, know it's, more question of our exchanges, gonna have you. Know more, of an impact they're gonna take on more things that we don't consider gambling, rather than the, called as. Gay. When. I look, to exchanges. When. I first arrived I didn't actually look at them as gambling, markets, per se so, I, went. To a first Tuesday meeting where they were pitching, ideas. So. The first Tuesday meeting was basically a version of dragons den before. Dragon's Den was invented, and, used. To turn up there and they'd be entrepreneurs investors and. Techies. All, trying, to get funding or achieved something but. They were pitching, all, of the stuff then in the early days of the Internet as disintermediation, basically. Cutting out the middleman so, when I looked at the sports markets, and somebody pitched that idea I, was thinking well what you're looking at really is an insurance market for sports almost so. Having. Spoken, to football clubs they, hedge. A lot of positions now in terms, of we're going to try. And reach Europe we've got to spend 30, million pounds what's the risk that we won't do that let's bring in mr. analytics, there's, a cost involved with that maybe we can hedge that so, I've always felt that the sports markets, on and on exchanges, act more like an insurance market, or a derivative of, some, sort. But. Of course whenever somebody, says to you what you do for a living you. Have to make up some other excuse. Because. If you sort of say oh yeah I bet on horses all day long and have done for 17 years they just think okay you know well. Let's see it so sometimes you have a backup. So. A friend. Of mine invited me to partying and just to wind me up he said to me he. Said to everybody coming to party you must speak to Peter and ask him what he does for a living so. At, the end of the party he came back and said what. Did you say to them he goes because everybody's been commenting, that they didn't think that you would do that job and I, said Matt I said, I was a porn star and.

That, Seemed more acceptable so. Try. And board them as quickly as possible so other. Subjects, it seems to work quite well you've. Had that probably it's. Best avoided, of learn over time just, an endless conversation, make videos on the internet yeah yeah. Yeah. If. You, guys are consistently. Winning you must have trouble finding. People, to take your, bets unless. You're paying up. In the hyphy range on BET, fair. What. Do you do about this this. Issue. First. Question my head's yeah. I mean, you, know are you guys also, in this is where you try, and and then regular. Bookmakers, and have trouble getting. Typically. That lasts a day or two yeah yeah. I. Originally started our Bing years, ago when I first joined therefore, that was the very, first thing that I did was. I figured out that I could get, 16:22, won on a golf, player in the US and. Then stick it on an exchange at a much lower price and so I was typically are in the very early days, but. That all vanished fairly, quickly because nobody wanted to take my position so I sort of gave up using bookmakers, a long time ago and, you. Know our Bing is one thing and really matched betting, is is quite thing as well as far as ways, into. Trading it would you say that like that that, is a great route to sort of get, into train to understand the economy, start out yeah or what, what are that what are the routes is there's. A lot more people coming in via that route I think yeah it's more common knowledge and that probably links in well with the question about accounts, being closed because I think the. More and more people they're, very. Aware. The ordinary they you know they're not, they're. Not doing this full-time and you know and into the numbers of such again closed out very quick. That's. Definitely really in yeah I think the the problem when you get people that migrated from match betting, to trading is it's a very different world so if, you're doing matched betting, you're sort of saying I'm putting five pound here ten pound there and I'm getting five pound bag whereas. With trading is saying I'm putting five pound here and I may get six pound bag perhaps or I could actually get four pound back but, over the next hundred races, I'll, probably get back a bit more than I put in so, it's it's a different construct, to, match betting so I think it's a harder journey but. That said probably, traditional. Gamblers, that. Try. And trade sometimes, have difficulty overcoming, their. Analysis it's. Funny, I mean you know if you try match betting, I would say you. Could say everybody. And that tries match betting and it takes it seriously is successful, you know you could take sports. Betting in general and say you, know five percent or even one percent of people are successful what. About trading. And then taking you know how, easy, is it and how high, is the failure rate I guess.

Part Of that depends upon what you're trying to do so I, consider. Myself to be an outlier in terms of what I've achieved so, if I would never sell it on the basis of somebody replicating, what I've achieved but. If you want to do better than you have done with, a gambling strategy, you're almost certainly, do better. But. In, terms of. The. Rate at which people do, or don't make money it's, going to vary dramatically, depending upon what, they exactly they're attempting to you and I must admit I do not know what that rate is. Massively. So for example like we. Spoke about earlier about playing poker, and stuff so generally. Accepted, is that a poker. Player pay in cash game might need, a forty or fifty buy-ins, to play that given given, matter, and maximum 100 by buy-in for that table and a. Similar, concept can be applied to try and it definitely had a good application. On that basis for me personally but. How. Many people really do that so, personated, Reuven it's so difficult to perfectly, I mean even. Even by guys who like really, really, gifted could. Have. Really bad money management skills or can't win yeah, or disorganization. Etc. Etc till, the. Gamble. Where when they're under the influence of alcohol, in search oh and, I mean poker, players recommend we speak about that quite a lot down tilt, the whole bankroll, online when they're drunk I think. The phrase have always come up to figure. Out whether you've got an edge or not is just. Look at social media and then you realize that you probably have got an edge. We're. Only gonna be a couple more questions so. Yeah. Oh. Hi. There question. Really about money management so often when you enter the market you're entering the market because it's a value you think if the price is too high. But, then the price trades, down and to. Preserve your bankroll do, you trade out or do you even. If the price is still still, too high. The. If, you look at some I think. There are two general approaches, to that process. The. Most important thing if you're talking about stopping out a bad position is that, all. Too often people use an arbitrary mathematical. Measure like a stop of five tech seventies or whatever when. In fact I almost never do that so I'm going into a trades on the basis of having five or ten things in my head that I think, will make this trait develop to a profit over the next few minutes and if, that deteriorates. Then I'll close my position, and that could be for a loss or a profit, but, if a position starts to go against me and all of those things are intact then. I'll still hold my position, but. Typically most. Of the traits that I do I'm going in on the basis of trying. To take the lowest risk possible with, it with some upside so, part. Of it part of the trick of getting a situation. That isn't gonna deteriorate is to have a decent entry in the first place do you have any stories about getting into deep. Yeah. I remember, the worst trade that I ever did was it it's, now. It's. Now called champs at City it was great Lee's back then and I got on the wrong horse at the wrong time the price went the wrong way and I, still thought it was fine and, then I realized that my PVR, I'd. Actually rewound it and so, actually the race was about 20 seconds in front of where I was and then suddenly it went in play and.

The, Whole thing just disintegrated. And I've, never had one as bad as that ever since that was quite a few years ago but yeah sometimes, the. Worst possible losses are the ones that you don't even think about I think just to add to that there's sort of two elements to that question that the first ones obviously just constantly, reassessing, the situation, because. Only when the situation you know it depends, how dramatic it is when. It turns that's when you want to look at sort of scaling out or or closing out the position and the second month particularly. More for people that are newer to trading I think is knowing your own personality. Because. If. You can't cope with you know the the ticking. Comments' of profit the amount is moving then you're probably better off taking a small amount out straight. Away bit, more sort, of other you know sizes, as well if you know if you're panicking because the positions are gonna get into your at stake is probably too big if you know that's a vacant that emotion and fear in you then you're better off downsizing. It anyway so you've got sort of clarity for the decision. Dad. So that would be if. You're you, obviously if you're entering you're entering for a reason right and. Instead. Of having an arbitrary, tick loss, that you are prepared to tolerate maybe. Encourage, you to think does. The condition that I enter, the market with still. Exists and if, it does then maybe you might want to hold it for for a longer period of time common sense I think. We're at a time unfortunately, I so. We're gonna take a coffee. Break but hopefully you guys are going to stick, around and if anyone. Has any more questions so. We're gonna take I think is a 15 minutes for coffee or 10 minutes and then, be back with our next session but thanks very much guys. You.

2018-02-10 20:37

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