Intensifying Risks of International Financial Stability
if you think that the world is headed in a direction that makes you a bit concerned for the future and you'd like to be as self-sufficient and independent as possible then you've come to the right place my name is Lynette Zhang now it's time to go beyond gold and silver [Music] I'm Lynette Zhang Chief Market Analyst at itm trading and a very proud prepper and welcome to Mantra Mondays today I'm going to show you all the different reasons why my Mantra is what it is so let's just kick it right off with food which you know is the single biggest issue for people as we go through these transitions this is why it's so important for you to be prepared in the food category whether you grow your own food or you have long storage or whatever but you need to make sure that you can eat now these are countries with troubled currencies and they're facing food inflation crisis so in other words if you think it's been bad here it's even worse there and isn't our currency in trouble too of course they're not going to talk about it and I'll bet you anything in all these countries they don't talk about it but the reality is is that when people are hungry and hopeless regimes are threatened because people make choices they would not normally make and so really do we want the regime shifted well personally yes I do I think these Central bankers and these governments have had plenty of time to screw things up but the powers that be don't want that and so here the IMF just approved a new food shot financing window to ease the uh let's call it a war shortage but to ease that crisis so what exactly is that well they're going to be providing financing to support country responses to the global food crime crisis in other words they're going to enable countries to take on debt more and more and more debt because when you are the debtor whether it's to the IMF or anybody else then they have you right where they want you and you have to ultimately comply the food shock window will provide excuse me for a period of a year a new channel for emergency fund financing to member countries that have urgent balance of payment needs due to acute food insecurity a sharp increase in their food import bill or a shock to their serial exports so sorry about that foreign sorry about that so again what is the solution to the food crisis more debt you do not want to be a debt slave but is this really about keeping the masses calm because again when people are hungry and hopeless they do make choices they would not otherwise make and of course water so we can't live without food we can't live without water and here is usaid which is a U.S government agency and by the way was quite instrumental in 2016 when India demonetized like 85 percent of their currency I know that's a little aside I just thought it was interesting with USA because obviously not really a big fan but they have a strategy water is a challenge lack of access to Water Sanitation and hygiene services and poor management of Water Resources contribute to increased poverty ill health under nutrition food and energy and security uneven economic growth and migration pressures so it is critically important that we all have some secure source of water we've talked about this in the past for me on this particular you know my Urban Farm here I converted my pool into a swimming pond so there's no chemicals in it of course I'm still not going to drink that water right out of the pool but I've been able to put in some ponds there are some bladders there are water barrels there are all different ways that will enable you to put back water because they are right lack of access to water you know creates issues around sanitation and high hygiene and this is critically important in a bug out circumstance or you know as we've seen in other places when you lose access to that water dwindling and more erratic Water Supplies due to climate change water pollution and increasing water demand threaten economic growth and increase State fragility and the risk of State failure and they're not talking about Massachusetts they're when they're talking about States they're talking about the entire country so you want to make sure that you have provide for yourself you need to be as in in all these cases as independent and self-sufficient as you can possibly be and particularly in food and the water because these are things that we really can't live without so get a good filter if you live near a body of water that's great it could be a lake it can be a pool it can be you know somewhere where you have access that you can filter so that you're not under the government's choice of who gets the water and who does not get the water some interesting developments on that I'll be going into that more uh in the next time but as water resources that are shared between countries and communities degrade or become scarce compete petition for water can increase raising tensions and increasing the likelihood of conflict which we've already got growing conflict globally but my one I'm wondering will water be weaponized will it be weaponized between country and Country will it be weaponized from the government to the individual you don't want them to have that much power over you at least I don't want them to have that much power over me so this is a choice and we need to get ready while we still can because if you think that the world's energy crisis is bad right now next winter will be worse according to the oecd whose new Global Outlook predicts bad times ahead with millions of Americans and Europeans bemoaning the huge rise in cause to heat their homes and power their businesses during the bitter cold months they ought to brace themselves for even worse times ahead next winter in Europe if it is a cold winter this year it will be complicated but we're more concerned about next year especially in the gas markets replacing the Russian gas is going to be a challenge yeah so what you're looking at here is the oecds um idea of what the global growth picture looks like and you can see that November of 22 projections are well below even last December's a year ago predictions projections this is not good and this is on a global basis so Global growth projections are falling and they're falling through 2023 but hmm what else happens in 2023 that transition to Libor now look I be dead wrong about it this is a big experiment that has never been done before so there's no history one way or the other but do you really trust the guys that are driving this bus I mean they've driven us wow into not just a ditch but into a crisis and they're driving us into another crisis maybe that's planned maybe they need this to make the shift that they need to make but when this shift occurs I gotta tell you Wall Street didn't think that they could do it I don't think they can do it either we'll see we'll see so you want to be ready and I think that's part of what they're talking about but nobody's talking about it openly and that also makes me pretty suspicious why aren't you discussing this openly because they don't want anybody to be looking in this direction but I'll help you look in this direction because I think it's really important and again as inflation bites theft is on the rise and not just in the UK star stores but shoplifting Rose 18 well you know you got to feed your family in some way and if that means you've got a shoplift to feed them I'm not encouraging any kind of theft or shoplifting that's why I did my Gardens on the exterior of the property so that people don't have to go and shoplift you come and pick a zucchini okay but stores are putting more security tags on products even butter that was really the piece that got me when they said even butter so they're putting security tags on butter because people can't afford it inflation has definitely wages have not kept up with inflation no doubt about it but uh I don't sympathize with people who shoplift but I can understand desperate people taking Desperate Measures grocery pla price inflation hit a record 14.7 percent last month adding an extra 682 pounds to the average annual shopping Bill more than a quarter of UK households say they are struggling financially twice as many as last year can you see the growth in that and the vast majority say that higher food prices or higher prices on food and drink is a major concern so I'm not saying that you need to put security tags on your Gardens but I am saying you should probably put one in or again you know it kind of takes it back to that food piece because you got to feed your family so just be a be more Vigilant when you're doing anything and leaving it outside because I think that theft is going to grow more and more now there's also the opportunity for barterability which is actually quite a booming business this is Corporate bar uh bartering retail barter which would be between like you and me this corporation's bartering and counter trade bartering which is international bartering so this is when the Fiat money does not change hands but they're bartering back and forth for goods and services I think it will get very very local but it's actually a pretty booming business internet-based software to maximize trading opportunities while also providing quality accounting and Reporting functionality which also means that I mean barter is supposed to be it is taxable in this country I'm gonna say that and if you use things like a Craigslist or something like that that's really what they're talking about here that technology has enabled the broader base of bartering because you can go out and get the things that you need I do think it's going to get very local for a while you know but anything physical and any talent that you have Goods Services is barterable so what do you have that you can barter with and again Singapore warns a potential Global funding Market dysfunctions what does that mean what's the funding Market well that's where you can go out and borrow take on more debt and now Singapore is warning about potential Global funding Market to function dysfunctions which means you're not going to have the ability to borrow out in the global markets which is a huge problem for governments and corporations probably not so much for individuals but hey this is when that trickle-down theory would actually work really well it didn't work so well with the wealth Echo most of that kind of stayed up on top but when you go to the loss of your ability to borrow think about 2008 everything was great and boom boom boom 24 hours I am not exaggerating some of you may remember this 24 hours if you were in line to get a loan and you were supposed to close that next day you didn't close because the the loan did not get funded so here we are being warned yet again now who is Mas because they are among authorities flagging risk to financial stability they are the monetary monetary authority of Singapore so that's Singapore's Central Bank and they are saying this is a problem because this is a debt based system if you can't grow debt what does that mean for the system means the system's in deep deep trouble Singapore's Central Bank word of potential dysfunction and Global funding markets and liquidity strains gosh here we're have we're talking about liquidity yet again and you think about all of the money that all of these central banks created and pushed out for free why where where wait where did all that liquidity go why are we having all of these conversations around funding markets and liquidity it's because when they went to the top they turned in they converted into hard Goods gold real estate I'm not suggesting you go buy real estate right now but gold real estate Yachts planes right so it's just not available for the markets intensifying risks of International Financial stability and then what well the IMF write-in on their White Horse with sdrs um you ought to watch some of my other videos for that but yeah that puts the IMF in just the perfect place because they have the cleanest balance sheet why they have the cleanest balance sheet because the SDR which stands for special drawing rights is just a name just like the US Dollars just a name but the SDR is a basket of currencies now those currencies take on debt in order to create dollars Euros Yen Yuan whatever so but the IMF cleanest balance sheet I think that this is the opportunity for the IMF to come in and get integrated and become the with the SDR World Reserve currency but that's my opinion I'm either going to be right or I'm going to be wrong we're going to find out it just makes the most sense to me Singapore Central Bank joins Global chorus of central bank's warning of next financial crisis they really are telling us that there's no liquidity in the market and we need to be prepared for Market implosion are you ready are you sitting with wealth inside of the system probably not well you do whatever you're comfortable with but I just have dollars I have gold silver Food Water Energy the whole Mantra but I don't own any stocks I don't own any bonds I don't own any annuities I don't own any mutual funds or ETFs or all those things that they create that you don't really realize what the risks that you're actually taking and they're telling us right so that you can't go back and say well how come you didn't tell us they're telling us you might want to believe them because they bought more gold than they have in their history actions speak louder than words but this is one time remember my daddy do what I say not what I do yeah well you look and see do their actions support their words and I would say with this constant warning and the constant buying of gold those actions support the words because they want to remain in power after this is over so they need the gold so do you sorry I'm just you know I mean I'm just telling you what I see and I've been in these markets on some level since I was 10 flipping years old and I'm 68 now okay ordinary Germans are paying anti-war protests stretch across Central Europe so people are coming together in community aren't they most are attended by just a few hundred people but they point to a worrying trend for the Region's political mainstream what is that well a lot of different grievances are becoming fused very dangerously fused in Democratic terms because it's been divide and conquered but look at what they're calling for Community not division so what has been happening for at least the last couple years or so is that people have been targeted to be you know divided there's the vax and the unvaxed there's there's the war and not War I mean but now what we're seeing is that those people with different political views different ideologies they are now coming together and a lot of different grievances are becoming fused this is dangerous to the ruling class they don't like that at all and it is a growing Trend so could we see a revolution well Ray dalio thinks so and I hope so and I wouldn't say that Rey is wrong because truthfully the fed's damage to the housing market May last years now we got to talk about this for a minute right because you got to have a place to make your last dance so I want you to understand everything that I'm saying and you know I live in a house and I have my bug out house so all of these things are very important clearly but the the housing market in this country and in many other countries is 30 of the economy in China it's even more so by front loading and pushing interest rates down and encouraging the reflation of the housing bubble they have done damage that truthfully can last for many many years the Central Bank created major distortions in a market where many Americans have most of their wealth why because they pick winners and losers and I'm sorry but you and I are just about the right size to fail the housing market may be slower and less liquid for a long time in other words once the price is settled down at a bottom and they're not even marginally near there yet and I think this is going to look when everything is said and done I think this is going to look more like Japan in the early 90s where residential real estate dropped 85 percent and Commercial dropped 95 percent so Japan's real estate after all this time has not even marginally come near their gains and the mortgage-backed security MBS the mortgage-backed market may be less liquid too so what is that that is when a bank or some kind of non-financial firm when when a firm takes your mortgage along with a whole bunch of other mortgages and packages them up now who's been the biggest buyer the Federal Reserve but the Federal Reserve is now trying to normalize their balance sheet by allowing these mortgage-backed Securities to mature and not replacing them and they've been buying roughly 30 percent of the mortgage Market that's what enables these other businesses these Banks Etc to go out and and buy and sell even more mortgages and then package them up so as the government as the Federal Reserve I should say is selling off the mortgage-backed Securities or allowing them to run off their balance sheet who's buying if they're such a big buyer so that's what they're talking about here this this is going to not be a pretty picture you gotta have a place to create your food water energy Etc but no time to speculate in here now it will be a riskier asset that commands a larger spread it's riskier because what the FED has really done is taken all that massive the liquidity that was in these markets and front loaded it by pushing interest rates down and encouraging people to go and buy houses and pushing up those prices and pushing up those prices and pushing up those prices so that bubble has popped but it hasn't it's going to get a lot worse it's going to get a lot worse in my opinion because frankly a Fed fueled frenzy finally fizzled yeah and who's left holding the bag all those people that bought homes that let's just hope they can continue to afford them because I would not want to be selling property into this Market frankly okay U.S housing starts tumble in October amid soaring mortgage rates well these are housing starts you can see what happened from 2007 to 2010 and then they managed to Pump It Up reflate it again but um look at this you can see oh let me grab this you can see the laser pointer so this is 2020. push those housing prices and housing starts up now they're declining at the fastest Pace since 2020 and so what that really does for most people is it destroys the wealth that they're holding in the house right all that Equity that's pretty much a big problem for most Americans especially those that bought near the top and now as the pricing will start to come down will become underwater we're going to have a repeat of what we had in 2008 no I think it'll be worse and I think it'll be more broad-based because it isn't just in housing now it's in everything it's in everything and that is actually what ends up creating the opportunity and that's part of the strategy that we execute that I developed for myself before I came to itm and then we have we execute that for our clients based upon what their goals are and circumstances so if opportunity positioning is what you want to see click that calendly link below have a conversation have some goals in mind or have a conversation to help you establish your goals and then build that strategy because this is happening and it should be really obvious and we are clearly running out of time so until next we meet please be safe out there bye-bye
2022-12-08 16:09
