Forex Trading Live with Jon Morgan - New York Session Open (May 24, 2018)
Good, morning, everybody it is 7:00, 12 in the morning on this Thursday, the 24th. Of May. Coming. At you a little early this morning my. Wife is heading out of town for. The weekend to go visit some. Friends in Cincinnati so I need, to do. This with you early and then get. Out of here just a little bit early, probably closer to 8:00. And morning but I didn't want to. Steal. Any time from, you, only give you like 20 minutes so I'm gonna kind of jump in here and, we're. Gonna go over some. Of. The, info. Okay. So. We. Have I, just want to pick the crypto currencies a little bit we have a have. Had a bit of a down drive yesterday that, has just kind of continued, but we're finding a little bounce later on in this morning so we should we, we, shouldn't be surprised to see some type of rebound, in prices. Going. Into the today. Tomorrow on the weekend a quick. Review or gold let's, see so we have none, of the trees really yesterday, that we were, just kind of continuing, to trade, in the direction of the major trend, but now, it looks as if we were gonna probably experience some type of pullback here some type of. Actual. Actual. Literal pullback from these big. Changes that we've had over the last couple months, gold. We. Wanted to go short at 192 but we have not been able to get down there that 192. Short has been going on since you. Know Tuesday and Wednesday, and. We just have not gotten down there we've been kind of stuck in this range we've, been consolidating. We're not showing any real major divergence. Here. But. You know gold is still in, a danger, zone I still. Have a sell. Open. Below this, line here I find. Letting it rest there because I had any return, below, this angle, we should expect to see a big, fall out in prices, so no, current. Short. That I'm looking at at this area right now the. Euro I think, we should entertain, the, idea of, getting into a long position here. Just. For a short term setup, not. Not a very long that's hard. To say we're going to take a long here on a short term timeframe it kind of gets confused in saying long and shorts but I, think. At a clear. Break in a hold above this this, uh you. Know getting. Up to, 117. 49. Wouldn't. Be a bad trade because we'll certainly probably see, a rally, all the way up to 118. 43, you know we're looking and I look probably making a hundred pips on that drive and then even if we extend beyond, the one 1843. We. Could expect. To you, know meet, our next area of resistance. Up here at 120, 62 so I think there's probably a nice deep, deeper. Well. Actually this is technically, a kind of a shallow pullback, but it would still be a nice pull back to the 120, 62, zone that we would like to see. Wouldn't, be such a bad thing to have happen, over the course of the rest. Of this week and into next week. Tom. Dollar certainly. Finding a little bit of a rally here. You. Know it fell, below this angle traded, up tested, it failed gotta. Be gotta be careful of it wanted, to continue down, here. We. Certainly could see, the. Set up where. We've. Got a pretty clear. So. Far half, way. Possible. Head and shoulder pattern where we're gonna trade up to here, oh. Crap. Well you saw what I was trying to you. Could trade up to this, zone, here, to. This. Angle come. Back down, trade. Up again but if we don't really get it clear a break. Higher from this zone then we should keep entertaining, the shorts, on this, pair really not. But. You know the, thing if dollar index is really weak right now not. Really weak but it is weak we. Should actually look at it from the. 192. Day, 192. Day cycle. Of. The DXY. Oh yeah. Yeah we're, getting a little heavy, in that range definitely. Looking for some weakness to continue here so yeah. The the pound, dollar not, a bad trade, to be looking at. You. Know we'll certainly. Mmm. Probably. Yeah. You know what I'll come back to this. Aussie. Dollar US, dollar catching. A little bit of a drive up to we. Are seeing a little bit of a pump here, you, know we have been making some consecutive. Higher, lows, and higher highs on, the hourly here, and this, has been going on ever since. Ever. Since. What. Is this the, the. Night and. So, we've had a pretty, nice bounce, off of here. Bounced. Off this angle still holding so there'll, be some wide open spaces up in front of us so actually you know if.
We Want to be risky we could take a long here because we, haven't sold off at this zone even though we've had some significant, weakness, and major trend, reversals, you, know that's gone since the first of the year so we, could, see, a nice, rally, in the Aussie dollar up, to about the 76. Thirties, own and if. We're not facing a lot of selling pressure here this. May be a good sign to go along. But. Maybe we'll want to wait till we break up into the ark so 75 65. But. Certainly you know any any. Weakness. That would continue we'd get out very early because this is a counter, trend trade. But. This, is a pretty stable, rise. It's not, it's. Not getting. A little ridiculous, at all it's a pretty stable and, and. Okay, rise so you, know getting in right about here, we're seeing some this. Entire arc here acting as a as a, as a resistance. Zone that has been breached, before. It. Traded down below and wants to go higher so it looks like we are wanting to go higher in the Aussie dollar and. There's a good bias, to have at the moment. New. Zealand dollar very, similar, setup in situation. Just. Not as clear, of a of, a signal here but certainly we. Are looking at a bottoming, here and we could be looking at a at. A reversal. Setup here. Now. And I'll get into the structure here because New Zealand dollar looks like we're goodbye the, thing is is that a risk is pretty limited, and going along here it's. It's really limited to a breakdown them if this is a Bear Flag, just. As we're looking at this on the Aussie, dollar as well excuse. Me. Yes. You, know if we're going along around here our risk is fairly limited to, down, here because if we were to break down below, the below. This angle. Here, and below. The 75, handle i mean, word that's. A that's a big drive down it's a pretty significant, drive down we should see a real. Capitulation. Again another. Couple. Hundred pip drive over a two-day period more. Than two hundred pips probably, so. Keep our eyes on that that, is a possibility. New. Zealand dollar as well dollar yen. Lots. Of weakness, here. Banking. Around in here there's more. Than likely a clear, break. In sell zone this, isn't a choppy zone until we get beyond here if we want to look at it on our square. Of 9 years of 144. Dollar. Yen, clear. Broke. This angle. So the rule of angle says that we move to test the next one which is all the way down here that's, 106. 45, is where we're looking, at but we do have some structural, support at, this major harmonic, at 108. 96. And. So. That is a very normal. Place for us to want to target. And. I don't think that we could really go wrong. Let's. See what happens in fact I'm, more interested in taking a buy ad. To return down to here and stead of shorting on the way down but we certainly could short but. See. That's. If we get down there we could get down there I mean. We've. Seen big moves lately this could certainly get down to that direction without it without any big issue. US. Dollar Canadian dollar a. Little. Bit weak here, man this is just a so. Ugly chart these, big swings here. Euro. Pound okay, let's let's look at the Euro Pound here and this that just set up.
So. We do have a break, out from, the, 1 by 5 and 5 by 1 blue diagonals, man the 1 by 2 & 2 by a 1 angles here so looks. Like we're breaking down the test of 45, the. Real key zone to look at is a break down below this 45, degree angle so we're, getting into that area what's it's looked like on the daily. On. The daily, that doesn't look very promising to, break lower but. -. It. Is, just constricting. Like crazy. It's. Pretty interesting to watch this play out. I. Wasi. Okay. Look. Real quick let's take a quick look at our Kryptos. One more time before we zip back in here to do B, to the. 4x. So. Again. The rule of angles, we. Were discussing, that we make that, that it would be likely for, us to find some type of support, here, at this. 75. 62. That's. A major harmonic. Zone and we didn't get there and, so. We because we broke this angle, and. Then. The. Behavior. Is to test the next one and that's, where we seem, to keep continuing to drift towards and one thing I've noticed about Bitcoin, because using, different, forms of market geometry, to analyze. The. Behavior, of, price. And. See how if it was if it really likes to follow I mean it really likes to follow the, horizontal. Natural. Harmonic, numbers it. Really seems, to respect these zones a lot and. Then. It also, very. Much respects, the angular, relationships, in in. The square of 90 and so, what. It seems to respond, more stronger. To and this is true and a lot of instruments, is that Bitcoin. Follows. The rule of angles, more than it does the natural. Horizontal. Price ranges. It. Seems like. Price. Levels, act more, as a, confirmation. Of. A. Move as opposed to a area. That is of much importance, so angular. Relationships. And. The. And the way, that bitcoin follows, that is certainly. The stronger, of the. Geometric. Lines, so angles. The rule of angles is what bitcoin. Seems to follow the most and so, if we are looking at it broke. This angle, we are looking at it to test the one below it and right below we are looking at the 68-hundred. Value. Area. That. Is a very, very. Attainable. Reachable, zone it's also very supportive too because if we get down to this level, you. Know I don't have them drawn in here, I should actually do that quick because we. Are approaching, that zone. Let's. Need to put in those numbers 75. 62. And. Then. Edifice. Of two point one three and then five, zero four one point setback okay. So. We've. Got. So, it's first pivot here is 69. 32.0, for. If. It is 56. 71.5. And then. Our inner. Harmonics. Mid. At 6301. 2004. Yeah. So, that is that is a pretty. Actually. That is a nice area to get down to if we were to do that we would really. Like to see price get down to that, six seven thousand Valley area that's a natural inner harmonic. Pivot and, so. Yeah, you know I haven't talked about this for a long time but when prices. Cross a major harmonic. That is to be considered like the there. There's only eight of them in the entire history. Of, a chart whether you're talking about the Nasdaq, or the footsie 100 or, the. Or, gold. No. Matter what chart you have you only have eight major. Harmonic. Price levels, and they. Are going to be the hardest areas to break above or below and. So. When. Prices, do. Get. To this range, they, typically, will bounce away from it but that did not happen so, what you enter, into is, the, first. Harmonic. Overbought. And oversold conditions. So this. First inner pivot. Is is. Considered. The first, over. Or, this the second, major oversold.
Condition, And, what. We're what I don't have on here cuz I don't put all the inners on here but I'll put this this is the firt this is the this. Is called the minus. 1/8. Inner. Harmonic. Or, it's the 7/8. Inner harmonic, from the. From. The 2 8 to. The 3/8 the, level I'm gonna put here is the 7 8 but otherwise the. Behavior, coming off of coming. Down from a major harmonic, this is treated, as a as the, first oversold. Condition, and so. But. This here, coordinates, our. Strength. Test is at 72, for, your 7.0. 8. And so. This, area, here is, our, first. Our. First. Oversold. Condition. Based on. Harmonic. Price. Based, on price approach to a harmonic level. And. So, when we see price get to here. We. Should see a reactive, bounce and if it doesn't bounce, off then, it will more than likely very, swiftly, fall down to. The. 69-43. And. Then. Because. Really there's there's a 73%, chance that if price if, price. Fails to find support, at this, -1. Level. Then, it will move, very quickly, down. To, the, 69, 34. And. Then, from. There it is a very strong, and responsive, bounce it's it's literally catching a falling knife, and. So, prices will, travel, from here. Down to here and then very quickly it, will, find, rejection. And trade, higher. Okay. So. That's a very cool. Way to watch, this and see it play out because we don't get to see this often in. Forex. Because there's just not I mean. There's big moves it's just not. These big, expansive, moves like we have in a. Nation. And a new market, like finance. Night. Finance, looking. At finances. Chart. On my other screen here. I'm. Just not I, like. Bitcoin, and cryptocurrencies in, general they're so new. That. We. We. Don't need to see these kind of big major moves between major. Harmonic, zones that, we like we see in crypto currencies although we have seen those over the last couple months here that's for sure I mean, that has been a. Thing, we've seen. To. Do one, second. And. Just. Making some, orders. Here. All, right. So, act you know as we're watching this play out that should be actually kind of a fun thing to observe because, we should see. Prices. Either find a little support, from here and trade up or get, to here and trade lower and then and then, just fall, down a lot faster, so. That's what we're looking, to see happen here well. We'll keep we'll keep our eyes on this as we go, like. Coin. By. Coin you know showing just. Really a lot of continued, weakness I, mean it's just it really the entire crypto, sphere, is is. Experiencing. This kind of. Bear. Market. Right now and actually you. Know in order to move higher, because. We didn't have a lot of participation. Up here in order to move higher we're certainly gonna have to sell off lower. To to. Catch to. Catch in the the, buyers, who are waiting and then they'll that all that. Rise up will catch all the people who lost money on the way down who sold out at the bottom and blah blah blah so yeah, we'll have to watch and see how we play, out in this zone and.
Certainly. The target, area is definitely. The. 69. 67,000. Value area that is where we want, to see price get to. All. Right, okay. Going, back to, our. Currencies. Looking. At, gold. Again, okay. Gold is catching a bit of a bid to rise here. Probably, maybe even wanting to trade a little higher. We'll. See, hmm. Well. Watch it I mean, certainly yeah, gold Gold's not what I'm really wanting to go long I really only wanted to go short on it right now. Euro. I. Like. You what I see here. Euros. Gonna get okay yeah here oh man, we are in a cool spots it's, been easy to be a bear on the euro ever since we caught that early that, early drive down, but. Now we. Should really really see a. Nice. Nice. Breakout. Above this fight one by five and see, prices, rally, higher, here. The. Fact that we are at a square. Of price and time confluence. Own of major 45-degree. Angles and that, we've been in a Down Drive means. That this is acting that this time cycle, is acting as a resistance, to the trend in force so we should see, a, a. Big. Drive, higher, at least a very strong, pullback. Response, from this move. Especially. If we break above the. 5 when I look at this on the daily that'll look a little bit smoother at these intersections. Oops. That, one's right why, is this one. Well, really. Have to worry about that because it's in there below. But, looking, at this on the daily kind, of a nice nice. Formation. Happening, here and. Certainly. If we were to surpass yesterday's. High. We. Should see a pretty, nice, big. Rally to the top here well we'll, have to see. What. That does but you. Know certainly we are looking at a nice move. Higher. Have. Some really. Clear, divergence. On the daily chart but, you know again here we need to be be aware that the. Trend down is very strong we just haven't had a strong, pull back yet and that is what we should expect. To see as some type of rally maybe back up to the 119. 502, or like we were saying the 120, zone up here that. That is definitely in, the cards. And, see anything else that is looking like that yes certainly, okay so yeah. The pound looks. Like it's finding a bottom on its trendline, here. It's. Finding some support. Ossie, dollar those. Here, the, Zealand dollar yeah. Yeah. Just not a lot of trades, we want to get into, right away and, then, the dollar yen is certainly trying, its best to stay above. 109. 84. But, you. Know we are. We. Are really. We. Are really in a in a. Tight zone here, and. A. Breakout and sustained. Hold below here is going to be. Pretty. A pretty big deal I. Don't. Think the dollar yen has a lot of strength to do it we'll have to see though I mean certainly we could get this. Could just be one old big bear trap and and, and the Aussie. Dollar and the Euro could be big, old bear of bull traps. We'll. Just have to keep, our eyes out play, this smart. No, the dollar index is not getting. Stronger, really, right now it is still showing, a lot of weakness. To keep our keep, a lookout on this here. Otherwise. Yeah I mean not not a whole, lot to look at we're just all sitting on a lot of key levels you. Know man damn it gold it. Decided, to catch. A bit of a drive, up there. We'll, see. We. Shall, see. Anyways. That is my bit for this, morning I have got to go because I have got to get, my wife to, the airport, and, I. Will see you all tomorrow morning. Bye bye.
2018-05-26 18:56
