Bitcoin day trading – The best Elliott wave analysis – Episode #32
welcome this is bitcoin day trading the best elliott wave analysis episode number 32. i'm a little late because i just had an emergency it was one of my clients who had an emergency and i did meet him and i took a look at what was going on the thing is that the client took um um became one of my clients and he he asked me to buy bitcoin for him to set up a wallet for him to to send the bitcom i did bought for him to his wallet and that's what i did so i bought the become he he wanted and i did send it to him that's what what he wanted me to do for him and he wants to look at the charts like once every three months or once every quarter once every two months sometimes he takes a look at the charts but the thing is the emergency was the following he did right at the at the beginning of the bull market he did write down his uh seed phrase his uh 24 words of recovery he did it in my presence because he he he would have never figured it out himself um it's a person of a certain age not too too old but of a certain age and i don't know why but it it seems to be really hard for him uh to to take a look to manage the technological aspect of cold storage that seems to be very hard for him so i sat next to him and i explained him everything and i told him to write down his seat face i told him to check his street to see his face three times i told him to to take a password that he can remember and he told me stop asking i know it um i've just done it it's it it's uh it's all right and i told him to stop the seed phrase um somewhere extremely safe like in a safe in his house and he said don't worry uh i'll do the necessary steps that's what he told me okay now today because he figured out today he figured out that then he called me in an emergency that he did forget his password that's the first thing he figured out i said uh keep calm you don't have to worry you still have your seat for it don't you you did write down in my presence okay so he said yes yes yes i have i have the seat right but he comes up with three seat fits and he doesn't know which one is the one where he's um where the bitcoins are on okay so um so that's what was the first difficulty the second difficulty was that on every one of these secrets there were a couple of words that i could not decipher that he could not decipher he did write them down but i can't read his handwriting and he could not uh read his own handwri writing so i spent the last four or five hours playing playing a crossword game and i tried to guess the words that were missing in the seat phase in question because two of them i i guess all uh uh every everyone had an issue but in the one where the bitcoins were on there were three words missing and i spent the entire day guessing those three words it was a couple of letters i could i could see but i could not know how much letters there are in the world so it was extremely hard for me to guess the world but i but but after working on it for four or five hours i finished i finished uh guessing the words correctly and i could recover his wallet so that's good and for uh for for now for now he he will change his tactic because it freaks him out it freaks him out um having a seat phase it freaks him out um doing a transaction with bitcoin when he wants to sell or when he wants to pay somebody it freaks him out so from now on with that client he i will take care of his heat rates i would take care of his cold wallet and i will take care of everything of everything um because he feels much more comfortable letting me do it than doing it himself i tried to i told him it's something personal you should do it yourself and you should trust nobody else but he said i entirely trust you and i prefer you do it then that i do because i i freak out when i when i have anything to do with bitcoin the and what i find strange with that client is that the technological aspect is so hard for him but he doesn't mind the market for the volatility the market quality is fine he never complains about the market for athlete but the technology the technological stuff and there were only two things he had to do otherwise i did the one was take a password and the second one was to write down 24 words but that fixing totally out totally out and he he panics also when he has to do a transaction when he has to scan a qr code and send some money then he totally freaks out totally panics so from now on i'm not going to do all of it for him it's a client that i personally know it's a client that i like and it's a client who did sign a contract with me so i feel comfortable doing it for him and the good the good news is that he he took a position not extremely large but a nice position at the beginning of the bull market and now it's much more money so i spent five hours uh finding out uh the missing words or four hours because i would have been quite sad if he lost all his money and all the gains i mean now it's a nice position and it would have been very sad for him if he like if he lost it all that's just what i want to say so that's why i'm totally behind schedule and it's even hard for me uh to to make this intervention and to take a look at my charts or to to post my ta right now for my private clients it's hard because um after spending five hours playing across the game um and behind schedule schedule on on everything okay that's being said um let's take a look at my disclaimer which tells you that trading is risky and that you should be careful especially if you don't know what you're doing and then you can take a look at my services i offer one-on-one services and i have a private live elite wave update channel um um where my clients receive a couple of updates a day at least one a day but it might be four or five or six it depends on on every time i see something new on the chart every time i see something that i want to comment or every time i change my labeling on the chart and that happens quite often and i'll contact them the membership fee is only 20 bucks a month and right now i'm i'm it is it is it is nearly full there's there will be one place available if i don't raise the number of participants um then there will be one place available uh all the other places already are already taken but still if i figure out a new uh i'm doing that i'm starting with that um with that um private uh channel on telegram where i give live edit with updates so i'm starting with you i didn't have the time right now until now to put it on my website and i and i'm and i'm not sure how much work it will do it's also it's also there's also a lot of questions from the client what crypto can i send and can i send with dc to a bitcoin address and so on you get a lot of questions a lot of explanation i had a client who lives in a in a country with a lot of sanctions and he could not do um a bitcoin contract jackson but he could do a talk transaction and he he write me a huge explanation about that i don't really understand it but um try to fail fascinated for him still so that he could join and he needs but i mean there's a lot and there's there's a lot of taking care of of the participants and i don't know how how much uh can i meet in in the in that private channel group before i'm overwhelmed so if you're interested there will be one place uh opening up so so let me know and also i might raise the number of participants uh in the future so if you're interested just tell me i'll put you on a wasting list and as soon as i figure out how you can join i will add you to the past participant list it is 20 bucks a day okay that being said i think now we can take a look at the chart and then i can move on with my day so let's take first a look at the three hour charts so in the three hour chart is still looking bullish on the three-hour chart it's hard to point out the internal labeling of the fifth wave it's hard to point out it was possible a on wave three as you can see was possible on wave three it was also possible on wave one on the three hour chart but it for now it is not possible if i look only at that to to to label the chart correctly um so and that's the thing and then people ask me uh about my fischer indicator and i've an answer already my in my chat room i'm going to show you also telegram so you can take a look at it because there was one uh interesting question that you should know about and there's a lot of interesting uh subject discussed so you really should go in it goes as as far as i know it goes very well until now and you you should join i'm sure you find it interesting interesting when you're in my public telegram group is freya so you don't have to buy any fees it's only my private telegram group where i give you live updates on a little bit that is 20 bucks a day another day with 20 bucks a month so my fish indicator are the little triangles on top and below the candles that's my fischer indicator and as you can see it is still fully bullish so people ask me about about when and the important question is when do i get confirmation that we have talked and what i need to see everybody trades his way okay but i need to see for me then there need to be two things one is that that eighth wave turned um don't bearish and for now my uh analysis on the eighth wave did not turn bearish i'm still bullish even though we could have top and i show and i will tell you why when you look at the tree uh at the five minute chart but um so one thing i want is to is that the eighth wave mind for me eric wave is an indicator okay that elite wave tells me uh that we have that we are now looking for low for lower price we have not entered a correction i need elite wave to tell me that i don't know exactly when that happens it could happen here okay it can happen uh at the two at a two point four one four uh feed the exception it could happen at the 2.618 extension and even and i would not uh say that it's impossible that we go even higher and touch the other upper channel so i don't know where the top really will happen this is not the right structure that gives me confidence if i look at that that deeply confident that we did top and i and and in the past i've realized that when i think that we talk because of early edit wave and i only look at area today sometimes i'm wrong so i think we have talk but in reality we extend and we go still um a big a big way higher so i want i want what there are two things i want i want eliot wave to tell me that now we have entered the correction and that uh i'm that i'm will be looking out for lower price so i want my first indicator elliot wave to turn bearish and then i want my second indicator to turn bearish also and my second indicator is the fisher indicator it was perished here it was perish here it was bearish here it was bearish here okay every time so but now it's still it's still bullish okay so sometimes when it when it turns bearish i will exit my lungs persistence and go short i did it here in that correction because not just my official educator told me to go short but also and it was perfect to trade but not my just my but also elite wave told me that we have talked that way three was over he and once he told me that i knew that and i had one of my confirmation and the second one followed he is often i get they eat with um bearish uh confirmation before i get the fischer bearish conflict animation uh most of the time so and that's what it's so for now for me i'm still long i know that and i will show you that elliot wave is um is is telling that the crop top could be in and that this could be the top it tells me that but i have no confirmation i have not uh the future indicated confirming like idiot here that the top is in so until that happens i i'll keep bullish and i stay long that's one thing i want to explain and since we are talking about that such subject i'll show you briefly my telegram group and here was the last interesting question i i did get and the question was mr terry what bit would be a confirmation of a talk to you so i just explained it i did explain it here also and then i also explained why elliott wave is just an indicator to me so that's interesting to read read it it was a interesting question and you should read you will get something out of it uh let me let me read the second back because i'm sure i'll tell you to read it and you won't read it okay the first part i think i explained but let me read the second part just as fisher is only an indicator to me not a trading system the trading system is what you do where your stock loss will be how much money you are willing to lose on a position what your position sizing leverage is and for what signal you are waiting to exit your position all these questions must be answered before you take a position so that's what what i did answer to one of my subscriber and he's also a participant of my private channel and i did um answer that to him so the important thing is just that you know and that's the telegram channel i i'm inviting you to join it's always cool to have a second way of communicating with me and if you want to subscribe for the private channel where i give live updates on anywhere a couple of times there might be days and on the weekend i will work less and there might be days where i only do one if not much happen but there can also be days where i do five or six updates because a lot is after happening according to price so if you want to come into that channel it's 20 bucks a month and you have to go on that public uh telegram group it's free and you just tell me that you're interested and i will put you in a waiting list and as soon as i can add more members to the channel i will so tell me that you're interested if you are interested okay and if you want to learn how to do all the things that i talk about choose your stop-loss level um know how much money you are willing to lose and how i know how much money you could lose if you need help with that on a position but if you need if you if you don't know how to manage position or leverage or if you don't know on what signal you have to wait before you exit your position all that i teach also my private clients when i find the time to do it and they ask for it that's why i offer one-on-one coaching so i teach all those all those things to my clients and that's one thing i will always ask you what kind of trader you are and what you want to do because you don't have to follow my system and with looking at you in here uh what you tell me how much time you want to put in it how much how much you will look at the shots what what your level of of tas and and so on by listening to you i will recommend you a system that i think can can be fine for you uh if you don't have one already if you have one already you only tell me uh what you do and when you do it in it and if you checked all the points on the checklist then i would say it's fine you you can trade it if there's something you need to pay attention or something you can improve i will also point it out and then you can do that work on that point so it's i think it's extremely interesting to be able to talk with a trader i would have paid a lot a lot a lot of money to to do that in the past because it would have made me a much better trader very soon i i wasted a long time before i became a good trader because it is very hard to get the right information and to get somebody who guides you and tells you how you can become better so the progress you can make in six or one year or one year it's like a progress in in that you would maybe make in ten years if you work on your own so it's always nice to have somebody who who who points things out and who points things out to you and directs you in the right correction so if you're interested in in um one-on-one coaching let me know um just contact me here on the private on the public telegram group or write me an email my email address is on my website and finally i i commended on my last position i said my last person is now up more than 200 percent not bad for a couple of days you can see how much less i think two or three days or maybe four but i i guess more two or three i don't remember i a lot to do so i don't remember how uh when i took it but you can check i want i won't keep showing you all my position but i wanted to let you know and to let you see that i did not that i did let it run as i told you and did not take early profits so a lot of what mistakes people do is that they take profits too soon as soon as they make a little money they take it because they're scared but they will lose their gains and that's a mistake in my opinion so i did let this one just as i i said and and that's my position and i took it on open at the 10th and now we are that's the 17th in english is kevin i i toted the 17th and we are the 10th so if you count 17 18 19 and today 20 17 18 19 20. so four days maximum it took four days to make 219 37 and i might i might make more i since i don't exceed my position here i might also also lose maybe until my indicator tells me to go sparish and he would it it would maybe the earliest time it would go perish is now in in maybe six hours okay but in six hours i could be down um fifty percent or i could be down even a hundred percent if i cry if it crashes extremely hard i don't think so but i i still do it because i don't mind uh losing a couple of gains because if i exit my uh position early i will lose more money than if i if it if it a great if it goes down now for 50 before i get my my indication for attack that's still that's if i only make 150 on that position it's still fine for me it's it's still a profitable position but i don't want to to exit it here if we go 100 or 200 higher you know i don't want to exit before before it's over so i want to wait for my um for my indication of a top before and confirmation as i told you so so let's run and i see at the end where where will exit that that will stay a profitable position for sure but i i don't know now uh because and uh when i will exit i will exit it when eight wave and fischer tells me to exit it until then i will let it run and it could be up to uh in a couple of days it could be it could be over 300 percent or and if the if you keep on we could reach the 400 on that position on just one position and just uh something like one week it's possible i don't know if it happens you know i don't have a crystal ball but it's possible so why do i show that do you think i want to show off no but i i really don't like people who who talk about trading and never trade okay and and incapable of being consistently profitable so if you are still still a loser um in regards to trading then you should probably not teach other people how to trade that gets on my nerves um i listened when i tried to learn trading i listened to ghosts and they were all extremely bad traders and i don't like that so i like when people are authentic and are capable of really making money in the market so i don't like showing up but if i don't show you uh that i can do it then you might think that i'm just one or one more of those losers that talk to you all day long but never make five pack in the markets and there are a lot of them really a lot the biggest you see with with thousand ten thousand hundred thousand followers there are losers incapable of getting of trading i can guarantee it to you i can guarantee too just everything that comes out of their mouth is bs and it's really sad because teaching that to people will only make the probabilities of the followers higher to lose money if you listen to those kind of people you will lose your money faster than you would lose it normally without them you would still lose your money because you're still not a good trader but but with them you will lose it even faster and that's why that's why i want i i want to show some proof right now i don't think i'll keep on doing this not because i don't have perfect position often very often perfect deposit position but i but i just don't want to do it and it's it it's not honest because i show you that position but when i get a losing position do i show it no so so it makes no sense but i just wanted to to to show you that that i'm really trading not like those fake kind of traders and there are so many that never take very imposition or are at least never profitable so it's just i don't like the fake aspect of trading and now let's go back to the chart so we did talk about the um the three-hour chart here i'm not sure um there are two uh possible counts my third card is that this wave three then we would um and it's the last bullish count but there is an altered account that we are only talking at wave one which would mean that we would go much higher much higher okay and the probable retracement target is at the maximum retracement target is at 53 848 that's the maximum retracement target i will take in once we detox i will give more more targets and i will have a clear more point out the in the bottom more clearly but for now and that's uh that's the maximum target we have so the question is where will top and i don't know but i know that i will know that we have talked once my instigator told tell me that we have product and they will tell me when eliot wave goes bearish according to my anis i will see it on the chart when it shows up and it will tell me in that we have topped when fischer the triangles uh confirmed that then i know that we have talked and mostly i'm right not always but mostly i might when i say mostly i mean you must understand that i make money by being more right than wrong i have losing trades okay every trader has there's not one trader on earth that does that doesn't happen we're losing to it nobody knows 100 for certain uh if you will make money or lose money on a trade when he enters and there's a trade now what was my train of thoughts so i have losing position but but i i think i will get um my what i expect i can tell you because i need a big sample of trades and i and doing that big sample of trades i have to do exactly the same thing always exactly the same thing and never make a mistake if not i won't have a clean sample base that i can can look at but i'm but i'm a trading journal and i i try to find that out i'm in the process of trying right for trying to find it out and once i have enough trades i will be able to know how good my trading system is but what is what i hope for right now is only that i will be right um three times and that i will be wrong two times so i fully expect to be one two times and be right three times and it's the difference that makes me money it's the thing that that i'm more than wrong that makes me money and the second thing that will make money really make me money and does making money is is that when i lose money i lose less money than when i gain money so you see my last position two hundred percent so so and i losing position will never go to 200 maximum would be 100 and often i can cut the losses before that and only take 30 or maybe 40 less but of course i take losses i take losses like every other trader but i hope to be three times right to make three times money and lose only two times and when i make money i expect my position to be much larger than those that i encounter when i lose money that's how i make money that's how every trader makes money nobody is right hundred percent of the time of the time we don't have a crystal ball okay it's just probabilities i'm just talking about probabilities nothing more and that's an interesting thing and they checked if you can make money with a coin flip okay and and the answer was yes you can make money with a coin flip going long or short on a current flip yes you can make money with a conflict it is not a lot of money they tested it it's not a lot of money but you can make money on a conflict the thing is the thing is you must be good at trading media trading not at just the 10 percent that is that is looking at indicators eight wave or or official that's i mean i can explain a baby that this is bearish and that this is bullish green bullish um uh purple bearish i mean i can explain it to a baby and he will stand and understand it uh straight away okay that's not the complicated thing on trading and elite wave immediately everywhere abc that's not that complicates okay it is complicated to label it correctly but it's not that complicated if you if you study it a lot you will and you have some some some facilities for it you will you will be able to do it um quietly uh quite soon as long as you follow the rules and you're good at seeing patterns in the chart so but even idiot wave uh the principle the main font uh principle of edited wave are not that complicated to teach so that is only 10 ta is only 10 um as i always say psychology is 60 it's the most hardest hard thing and it gets extremely hard as a trader you try to increase your position size because if you increase your persistent sizing you will be able to make more money but you will see that trading gets much harder when you increase the position size even if everything you do is the same and that's that's one part of the psychological aspect so that's 60 and then there is still 30 which is money management so um so where do you put your stop loss and so on okay uh also your position sizing make sure that you don't uh trade more than one or two percent maximum of your capital uh you should be more at one percent some go up to two percent but that's all you should trade on a single trade all this kind of stuff i'm not going to go over the whole list right now but all those kinds of stuff uh a part of money or money management and especially position sizing so position sizing is part of money but and the psychological aspect is like is something like fear or greed and it makes a huge impact on you because if you're not if you're not capable to take a long position here you will never and if you're not able to take a short position here you will never so even if you indicate this to you because uh here you are over optimistic and here you are over pessimistic so and that's the case for most people uh 99 of the people um would never would never want to take a position here and a hundred percent of the people want to take a long position here 99 of the people will don't want to take a long position here and not that percent of the people want to take a long position yet so they do exactly the opposite of what they're supposed to do and that's one of the reasons why only according to me one percent er of that make money consistently in the market some people say it is uh 95 percent uh um it is five percent that make consistently uh money and there are some that go up to some analysts that go up to 15 but i think it's one percent i think it's not more than one percent i think it's so easy to lose money that you will more lose money than make they played a game one trader tarp plays a game with his uh with his um with his clients in the game is he pulls out of a bag um a couple of balls with different colors and there's a green ball where you double your money there's a red ball you lose all and that's maybe a yellow ball where you lose half of your money and he gets everybody's start with the same amount 100 000 and they play it for the same amount of time and they all get the same results the only thing they can choose how much money they they put on um they they put on each ball on each bet so how much money they put and the result is always something like this it is that um that one third of the group goes bankrupt so they they lose all the money very quickly one third of the group there's there's a second third of the group that lost more money than it made and there's only one third of the group that makes money so you see it is always less people that make money than make it and they are two out of four all three that lose money and only one out of three that make money and that's when the game is extremely simple when you only can bet on going uh uh um um on going long or short on a ball that comes out or something like like conflict when you can only bet on that uh the only thing you you know actually i think the only thing you could do is not even go long and sharp the only thing you could you can do is is change the persistent size you can pay you can bet one bucks or you can bet ten thousand or fifty thousand on a uh on a ball on um on a ball but i don't think you you can go short so you can only do take a bet by by only changing your position sizing uh there's still only one out of three that makes money and um the other two and the other and two other three lose money and the only thing you can do is play the game and on on and how big your position choice is and still there's only one other three that makes money so and that's what's easy when it's when it's real trading when you start watching what i'm showing you is much harder so i think so it's normal that it's at least that at least 85 95 or 99 of the people who lose money i think it's 99 but i might be wrong on that but it's it's very high it's it's uh it's in the best case in a scenario 85 percent of the parts you lose money in the best case scenario i think it's not ten percent okay uh so i'm not going to talk much longer about this chart i think you know the basics about it but we'll still gonna take a look at the five minute chart so the five minute chart if i zoom out if i can do that i would like to do that but somehow it's a little complicated because i want to show you the entire move okay um so we had on the five-minute chat we had the bottom here then we had a wave one two three four with a triangle and now we ended with now we could have ended way five okay so that's all that is required for the bull bucket to stop according to aid wave that does not mean that you will stop because we always can have an extension but it is possible that we did top because you always can go from something like one two three four five okay you can go to one two three four five six seven eight nine okay so let's say one two three four and up here the five yeah and here you get one two three four five so that's an extension and it's always possible so you can have that you can have an extension and it goes on it goes from it goes from it goes from five to nine and then he goes to 13 and he goes on to infinity and you always could have an extension of course at a certain moment the quality is is less likely but you always can get an extension you just add four waves because from going from one wave to one two three four five okay you add one one two three four waves that's why you you can always add four so this looks five but it could be an extension we could go to nine waves so we could go much higher and that's why i still i i keep long because i don't know if it's stop i mean i always expect an extension and doing that serves me more than cut then exiting prematurely the charts so after after having shown you that we'll take a look at the last part of the rise so here we had also a one a triangle yeah um and then we had a one two three four five and because we have five wave um it could be fully and developed and we could uh have talked here but as i told you we also we also can get an extension and go higher then i simply have to relabel the internal waves but i always can do that because um because this could be a one or two you know let me do it again well this could be a one a two and i would put a three here a four here and a five and a five inch higher and that three would go on on top of this one so we could there's always the possibility of an extension according to me other at least will will will have a different opinion but i i think there's always a possibility of an extension so i won't just exit it because a certain price did get hit because sometimes you you're right and that's spectacular but but most of the time you will be wrong so i want i want eight wave to flip uh bearish and right now if i look at that it's still not the case and i want my second integrator fischer to bearish also only then we like will i be looking out for for lower prices and probably go short here here here there is the possibility of going chalk because if it's the top it's a five or five or five and the correction should go quite low we could retrace up to here and that would be quite profitable to get that move if and if that's what happening but uh before i can give you lower target i need to to see first that we did top and right now i i'm not seeing it on the charts but um it could be the case in three hours or not three hours it would be a little soon because uh fisher doesn't turn bearish that fast uh not three hours but in best case an hour maybe six hours or nine or nine hours it's a three hour chart so maybe six or nine hours we could we could be bash and of course we could we we could be in six hours bearish and we could be at that level but i'm i'm more than willing to give up that profit my position will still be profitable and i'm i'm fine with it but i don't want to exit here if you go up to here and that's possible okay because i um because here you see a channel and the channel and the channel says at the top is when the price hits the top and um of the channel then that's the top of wave five and it could hit here it could hit here at the top of the channel or you could even hit here at the top of the channel so i don't know but i know that it's a possibility that we go that high okay it's supposed to be it's not impossible and those levels do show resistance so here as you can see once we did attach the 1.918 we we did true we did retrace uh so it did it did offer resistance and it did the same um very beautifully here when uh with three was uh three times wave one and it did the same here when wave um when when it retreat face to point um 0.236 of f3 it also it also perfectly showed but i mean the two the the two level and did uh show no no uh resistance and and then and this one can be get through quite easily this one i think will be a little harder to get through but but still and we we can touch on the upper trend line of my channel so i'm not going to give up on on on that move uh just because my elite wave count could be ending it could also extend so i'm i'm always uh leaning bullish until both things happen once and that i change my opinion on any way eight wave and that will happen um it happens normally faster than then then fischer often i already know on elite wave that we have talk but i'm still waiting for the confirmation of visual so it happens even faster okay so my if something happens uh until tomorrow my uh subscribers in my private channel will be of our informed life and for the rest of you you will have to wait up tomorrow up to up to tomorrow for an update for me and if you're interested in the private channel the live edit wave updates private channel for 20 bucks a month then let me know i put you on the wasting list and as soon as i can add you if i can manage more people as soon as i can help you i will add you okay so let me know if you're interested if you want more updates than one and they're quite i think they're quite good and quite educational and the difference is that this intervention is long it takes 30 minutes but to see one or two charts and to have a brief explanation under it takes only five minutes so you know what the market does in five minutes instead of watching an entire video of of 30 minutes so that could be interested some people could be interested in it um that's all for today uh thanks for watching i i was long uh longer than you than usually or maybe not that much longer but a little long and you can do me a favor as always by hitting the like icon and also subscribe and hit the bell notification because it's time-sensitive information have a nice day thanks for watching bye
2021-10-22 06:50
