$BTC Market moves explained - 8/11/22
it's that time it's that time it is that time my friend is that time for you to listen to the guy in the orange mask talking about crypto talking about technical analysis risk management trading psychology i'm just giving you what i'm giving you what i got you know take it or leave it if it helps you know makes me feel a little bit better it's uh what is it the 11th day of august 2022 thank you for joining i of course am big ched i'm probably most known for big chads on twitter where i do i put out academic observations about the price trading psychology risk management of course i am the author of trading wisdom 50 lessons every trader should know want to thank each and every one of you for the feedback the support the book has done really well um many of you may not know i am also the author of my battles with cancer i'm a cancer survivor i was also a caregiver uh if you know anybody who's fighting cancer just shoot me an email i'll send you the book for free like you know right now after the show whatever you need um i'm also working on my third book should be out pretty soon trading quotes it is getting good i'm working on it working on it i'll get it done this year i've got a few months left right i've got uh several months left i'm on like draft four it's in pretty good shape i'm excited so um so my book on amazon for formats kindle hardcover audiobook and paperback um but you know what if you don't want to pay for it i've got your back go to my youtube check go to chad's trading check out the playlist i'm doing eventually i'm going to do the whole book for free for you on my youtube up then 16 of 50. that's almost one-third i'll do lesson 17 next week or two uh what is lesson 17 well now we're hanging out let's just i'm just curious what's lesson 17 i don't know i don't know off the top of my head i haven't memorized them don't fight the trend ride it all right cool i'm not going to spoil it but that's going to come in the next couple weeks so uh thank you for checking that out listen i've got a bunch of great playlists what i like to think of is free alpha if you're just starting and you're wondering um how do i trade how do i where do i begin with technical analysis go to the tutorials master class ta webinars playlist i think that's going to help you out a lot this video and thank you for watching um this video will be under the quick market updates playlist where i kind of do one of these every few weeks whatever i kind of review tweets um check that out check out the long form interview series i just interviewed peter brandt it it was unbelievable the guy is a gem i think we had an excellent conversation i think there's a lot of value uh there for you folks and um other than that of course i am a founding analyst at bitcoin live bitcoin life is the best in class educational platform for crypto i've been doing market updates there for going on four years what i do is twice a week i stop whatever's going on in my life i stop and do a market report even if i'm on vacation um and and i put it out it helps me to practice and i'm just one of uh many contributors at a world-class team so consider checking that out so i'm gonna pull up the bitcoin chart but what i want to do is check in with you uh folks in the chat room it's a worldwide thing please tell me where you are coming from in the world let's all you know close our eyes and imagine we're all hanging out uh in the same place right um connected through time and space we're all watching this bitcoin chart we're all part of the same uh community so just reach out i'd love to know where you folks are uh in the world we've got good evening from iowa let's see what's going to everybody else king of bitcoin thanks i just enjoyed the price action uh no doubt about that we don't doubt about it chad's in montreal that's a great city i am a big fan of montreal um i actually write about it in my book so i talk a little bit about that city that's a wonderful place let's see where people are coming from cleveland hawaii singapore chile tejas or texas as they call it puerto rico sweden look at this i'm just a guy hanging out and i get to connect with you folks um throughout the world before i move on um i just uploaded twitter spaces these are super fun i've been doing these conversations bulgaria and the house i've been doing these conversations i did one two days ago and do i have the date wrong it's 8 11 8 9. so one of these is 8 4. so the most recent one one of these is actually eight nine i'll have to edit that but i have these these conversations on twitter with folks you know three four or five hundred people watching and just bring people up one after another they ask questions and it's just i found it really instructive it helps me to kind of stay connected to the community and i think the questions that these people are asking most of them are questions um that we and topics we can all relate to as traders so check out this playlist it's awesome it's it's a building playlist i'm pretty excited about that all right more from melbourne great cashmere that's great california redwoods uh more from chile brazil in the house italy malaysia so puerto rico iceland portugal so listen friends um thank you thank you for joining uh but let me just look at you and say thank you thank you for joining here today so what do we want to talk about i'm going to talk about bitcoin a little bit i have a few tweets that i have in mind but um if i see anything interesting in the chat room um i'll address it you know i'll probably miss your message because there's a lot of stuff going on but let's see what do i have lined up here so ethereum uh let's see b and b so i want a couple had an interesting tweet on bnb because i think that chart is interesting and ethereum as well so what's ethereum been doing i mean ethereum has really kind of been leading the way you know with a clean break up from the ascending triangle it's been pausing um and consolidating as it kind of works through this zone grinding higher and the higher lows but the level to watch has been the m820 simple moving average equal weighted 20 period so you know i put out this tweet this was on whatever day this is i guess we'll just plug it right in so here we go so i'm basically saying on this day you know you know we're slowly grinding higher um you know into this area but we just keep watching support ma20 and we had that really nice just yesterday that really nice drop right down to the sma 20 around 1650 and it bounced you know all the way up to 1950 so simple moving average strategy and kind of recognizing what a key level is in the chart and while the ma20 is important you've just been tracking it rejected in april rejected end of april rejected again end of april beginning of may uh rejected at the end of may rejected you know in june yadda yadda yadda so you know it's an important level uh you're definitely paying attention to it so this is kind of one of those tweets where it's basically just you know here here's the key level you know just focus on this key level because much of the time trading can be so complicated am i doing the rsi is it the obv is it the macd um if you just kind of pay attention to what the key support levels are that will help you right because ethereum's in an uptrend i think that's hard to deny and when you're in an uptrend you're looking to buy the dip and you're looking to figure out where that buy the dip level is so ma20 you know for sure you can draw a horizontal zone i mean that's you know that that's a decent spot right there as well if you get a pullback or really really a throwback um technically speaking to that level but you know but just kind of tracking ethereum if you've been tracking it from a ta standpoint um you know for many months now you've been watching the ma20 so you kind of know that's the deal um you know bnb is interesting you think about um the fact that you know you have all these charts and they don't and they all have varying degrees of um how well they line up how well their levels line up and this is just kind of a text a textbook example of a really well-defined level where you have support over a kind of um you know decent you have time interval in between these attempts one two and then you know you drop down you break below it you kind of you have that drastic um you know lower bollinger dip overreaction bounce and you look where it rejects you look where it rejects like okay you know that makes sense it makes sense to reject there so if you were shorting it if you were tracking the the price action if you observed the support breakdown um let me just check in the chat room before i keep on rolling too much further great great everything looks good um you know if you were tracking that breakdown and then the overreaction dip high wave spinning top you look at that deep penetration of the lower bollinger you probably at least bounce to the middle you know in that type of a scenario but you're looking at the underside of the broken support boom rejection come back below um it based and then bnb had um you know had the spring here more or less temporary violating um you know that that that middle of may low came back up above its support throwback support boom and then the stair step i mean it's pretty clean it's pretty clean you can see the stair stepping here resistance turned into support look at that resistance turned into support i mean this is this is textbook i mean it really really is and now we are at just a huge level boom ma200 ma200 where it was rejected before um and you have the the deep you have the downtrend deep drop boom right back into the jackpot right the prior level that was that was broken and shown as resistance so this is just such a huge spot so kind of as a chart nerd um it's a chart geek thanks to you thank you gi thank you so much cheers from california uh patagonia manila comastopo manila earth usa virginia cool i'm definitely down with virginia peru all right all right and iran so it's just it's just a big spot and it's kind of um an interesting chart to me for that reason so that's bnb you know talk a little bit up there's ethereum blah blah blah let's talk about bitcoin so what's going on bitcoin what are we looking at here what do we make of this what what is this bitcoin 24 7. what are we talking about chad's what does this mean would be fun to see what does this mean i'm basically kind kind of saying you know if i mean it would be fun because bitcoin would have to be really strong incredibly strong to power through this type of double negative divergence on the daily chart with obvious right with the obv and index oscillator tallying up the buy and the cell pressure and that's bnb like 2013 bitcoin right so it would have to be really really strong to kind of to power through that and that would be interesting to me so i'm kind of tracking that and i'm looking at these peaks and i'm looking at these peaks and the on balance volume i'm really adding up the buy and sell pressure i'm using obv although i really don't really use oscillators i'll start to look at them for divergence right when the price is at a key level you know bitcoin relief rallies been pretty impressive so far flip of 34 you know held held the 50 kind of charging back up to those last three uh really levels to watch may 12th low 28k ma200 really kind of inching back up to that um but you know at this point this pattern is mature whatever we're looking at here this is mature okay whatever this thing is this thing is morphed you know the rising wedge into the the the the the pennant into the flag into the whatever you want to call it i mean this thing is mature right this channel is mature so um you start to you start to look at lower time frame you start to look for potentially divergence and you know we're making new highs i want to see that conver confirmed in the on balance volume that's important uh for bitcoin we're not seeing that that's a warning sign to me that means the move up is not being supported by volume uh by volume so you have the new high made here you're calculating divergence based on the candle body not the candle wick checking chat room everybody is okay you you know you're drawing divergence based on that candle body you see the new high not confirmed you're like okay and so we have even here even here where we have a higher high lower high double negative divergence so it's interesting to see if it can push through despite this double negative divergence as i drew it here that was assuming that the price had closed kind of up in that 24 7 area uh where it was at the time you know we finished the daily candle uh with a gravestone doji it looked to be on track for a shooting star we have a gravestone doji even though it's not a shaven bottom that's fine with that tiny wick it's really just the uh you know neutral clothes with the long upper shadow um and really just you see it and you just draw these right away i mean just by practice by habit you say okay i see that boom and i see that so you see this kind of series of up thrusts and you immediately um you see that you say okay i mean it's not like bear it's not like bulls are in huge trouble because you have a series of higher lows that you still are sporting i mean that's the the most recent major one of course from the low the higher low the higher low the higher low and then you have this one which is kind of a minor higher low because it had the price had a different reaction rather than the um kind of strong thrust from a higher low towards the upper bollinger it did kind of a lower time frame equilibrium or consolidation um so i'm definitely still keeping an eye on that 20.7 but i'd say you know you have to watch this high or low if you're a bull if you're a bull and um you know all this is fine this is all not a big deal this gravestone because we had all this candle weakness with all this candle weakness all this candle weakness that just led to a higher low right so that's kind of okay boom higher low boom higher low boom higher low so that's the name of the game and you can still as long as you're maintaining that higher low you kind of complete that pattern and that's fine um but just something's a little bit different about this high or low uh most recently on the uh august 4th low so i'm kind of watching that in any case but but on the other hand if you're just kind of an opportunistic bear you're just kind of sitting around you know looking for an entry you had a couple nice entries here already i mean you had the up thrust here off the channel high july 30th you're back below it and then you're the most recent low kind of the local uh local up thrust here off the august 8th high so you know you're in a you're in a short off of that if you wanted to just based off simple horizontal technique and then again of course it's just a higher low watch right higher low higher low higher low so that's pretty straightforward so be fun to see if it pushes through and here we go this one all right i mean just people keep keeping keep asking about my 12k call i mean i don't know if we're gonna go to 12 i honestly don't know i think it's still like 50 50. um bottom could totally be in right i'm ready for that we'll see things happen 28k flip my 200 flip uh these other benchmarks we've talked about in the weekly chart um and all that but the point of this is i was calling 12k when the price was at over 40k and i have people all up in my replies like when 12k cheds like i'm sorry we only went to 17.5
okay when the price was at 40k when i was making this call people said it will never go below 20k it's never going to go below an all-time high like can we just chill out here we will see what happens all right um you know it made sense it made sense to start to look in this area back then because we just had the false breakout we just had the false breakout when did this tweet happen it was right here it was right after i mean this is such a such a clear setup and it's interesting because it's somewhat analogous to what we're going going through now with the ema 34 recapture and the ema 34 recapture and the kind of sideways chop and the sideways chop so it's very much analysis analogous in that sense and the false breakout tweezer top m8200 so uh let's see i mean when did that come it was right there i mean it was it was right there okay so it's basically it was basically like right around this range and it was just after right around this range it was just after we had the false breakout so it's totally reasonable to start looking much lower we just had an attempted we had a strong downtrend off off the november high and we forced the downtrend sideways we had a beautiful long setup we just had the long setup trigger and then it rejected so you were it was like such a strong momentum signal so at that point um at that point you start you should look lower so when i put out that tweet you know at 41k i'm looking down at 12k because i expect 30k to test and break and then i don't see a lot of price structure 20 to 30 i expect 20k to break and i don't see a lot of price structure really 12 13k to 20. so i'm looking at 12. um you know it hasn't happened yet and i'm sorry we only went to 17k from this level so you know look just because i'm more conservative than you and i want to wait till lower doesn't mean you have to follow me like you have to make your own plan i'm just telling you what i think and what i plan to do if i'm wrong if i miss it that's fine i'll ride a confirmed reversal but i don't buy down trends i just don't so i mean take it or leave it this you know it is what it is all right what can i what more can i say about that so last one here and the potential up thrust i talked about that um this is after the after the divergence tweet you know we have a potential up thrusts setting up here on the daily chart where you break over a resistance and you're unable to hold it that's just a pretty clear momentum signal if you're looking to short or even take profit on a long um so you had a couple of those depending on which one of those triggers you wanted to use so it is what it is and like i said earlier it's back to sorry about that i took myself off um it's just now it's back to the higher low watch so friends let's see what's going on all right um anyway folks listen thank you so much uh i you know i just want to touch base with everybody uh i've been going along going live for about 20 minutes uh so listen listen whatever you're doing out there um it's a grind all right don't expect it to be easy uh you're gonna have to keep working at it and if you're frustrated that's okay find ways to take breaks when you're frustrated right find ways to take breaks when you get emotionally over involved i think that's important so um anyway thanks thanks for hanging out here with me on a thursday night i am of course big chad's find me at big chad's on twitter please consider checking out my youtube channel and subscribing i have tons of great information i hope some of that is of value to you my book trading wisdom is available on amazon it has been well received and thank you thank you kindly for that free version of course on my youtube channel trading wisdom playlist proud founding analyst at the best in class platform uh for crypto it's a world-class unbelievable team i've been part of it since the beginning we have a great team as well as a great group of members so i'm really happy to be and proud to be involved with that consider checking that out uh anyway folks uh thank you so much and i will say until next time uh i hope i hope you do fine i hope i hope fortune favors you and i hope that you give yourself um give yourself a little bit of time right you know don't be too hard on yourself trading so hard that if you just if you beat up on yourself it's not going to help right you know it's it's tough enough as it is so give yourself a little bit of room give yourself a little bit of time to make mistakes and then try to learn from them so give yourself a little bit a little bit of slack there don't be too hard on yourself so in any case i love you folks and we'll talk soon let's finish it up with a little bit of dancing of course you
2022-08-14 20:21
