$BTC Market moves explained - 4/26/22

$BTC Market moves explained - 4/26/22

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so   all right all right all right all right enough  messing around right we're just   we're not here for fun we're  here to be serious right there's no room for fun here in crypto right  it's just to be serious no you got to be   you got to have fun with whatever you  do uh i try to have fun helps me out   i am big chad's i want to say a heartfelt thank  you to each and every one of you out there   somewhere in the world i love the fact that i can  go live you can you can watch it you can talk to   me here in the chat room you can see what i'm  doing and we're connecting and we're doing this   uh all over the world at the same time and  we're pretty you know that's the point we're   so similar similar there's so much uh about  us that's so similar so i enjoy sharing this   with you kind of sharing that common humanity  hello from czech republic cheers from england   uh folks you please hit like please hit subscribe  as well from greece uh love from the kremlin okay   all right um that's great to see everybody it  really is a worldwide thing so that's really cool   um so listen uh slovenia and we have someone  from new york that's great so listen i know   i see argentina they're going to keep flying in  texas in the house so listen i really appreciate   it if you're watching i appreciate that i want  you to know that uh you know i i might see i'll   see you on twitter and i may or may not see your  message so um and i may not reply so like don't   take it personally um and like for the the video  here there's a huge chat room i don't have a team   i get these emails it's like oh can you  have someone on your team contact us   it's like what team i'm just hanging out i'm  studying charts i'm teaching teaching as i go   i'm having fun with it i'm the author of course  of trading wisdom uh 50 lessons every trader   should know we'll get to that so let's get  this let's get that stuff out of the way and   then we'll get right into the fun right into the  fun um let's go right here i'm on twitter i'm at   big chad's i am the author of trading wisdom 50  lessons every trader should know it's great has   great reviews you can get it in four different  formats um like if you don't want to pay for   it though i've got your back if you go to my  youtube channel chad's trading go to playlist   trading wisdom i'm going to do the whole book  for free i've done 13 lessons i'll probably do   less than 14 this week i'll eventually get the  whole book for you for free bran you know so   you've seen my tweets and you have no idea what  i'm talking about well you need to first of all   go to the um tutorials and watch these start with  the most recent one it will explain everything   my whole setup go to the quick market updates  that's what this is uh these quick market updates   um especially recently i'm gonna explain my tweets  so if you see up here up top i have like 10 or 15   tweets i'm going to explain and then hopefully  that will kind of you know get us uh from where   we were uh in our last update the last update  was was on april 8th and i don't do these a lot   because i'm a founding analyst at bitcoin life  live and i've been for over almost four years   i've been doing twice a week full market updates  and like i don't miss those it doesn't matter   what's happening so i i don't always have time or  energy to really do youtube so these streams are   rare highly recommend you check out bitcoin live  i'm really proud of it um we have a great group   of members so consider checking that out um so  that's kind of all that stuff we have the chart up   so i'm gonna i'm gonna kind of um do a little  bit of backstory kind of how we got here and then   i'll dive right into the kind of progression  of the tweets what i wanted to talk about   um seeing everybody in the chart montreal on the  chat montreal nigeria good to see you in brazil   so listen folks um again thank you for watching  so listen if you want to know like where i'm   coming from um just what it's all there like i  don't delete tweets i don't delete videos you   can kind of see the progression and i just  follow the progression of the price action   kind of a combination of japanese  candlesticks and classical sharding principles   we've been in a corrective phase i talked about  the the topic back in november and kind of   live tweeted it live did videos on it all the way  down and so we've been in a corrective phase and   you can kind of anybody can kind of step a step  back and kind of visualize generally a bare flag   so if everybody's a bull everybody sees this and  everybody's calling bull flag so you also kind   of see it in the reverse and what this is it's a  correction a temporary correction within a trend   and that usually resolves in the direction of the  trend so you're kind of looking at what's going on   if you're just looking at it from that standpoint  you see okay we have a bear flag you know after   breakdown the up thrust and we're consolidating  right and after consolidation trends tend to   continue you see all that and then there's all  these clues within that and you kind of see the   mh you know 200 underside rejection you see the  loss of ma200 potentially rolling over which would   be a a huge warning sign for the trend i've been  tweeting about this i've been talking about it   and then most recently like the big the big  elephant in the room i put out a tweet that people   are kind of um underestimating the impact of what  just happened the damage on the false breakout we   had this really kind of unimpeded downtrend and  then um you know after that after the double top   kind of a corrective phase and then we had that  uh kind of first overreaction high volatility   you know uh bottoming handle with the spring  the false um bear break on january 24th set   the high came back we did it again february  24th right all the stuff we talked about   you know we set the level we broke  out right when you have a level that   that's this well defined uh with time interval in  between attempts and with the multiple data points   it's a really significant level you break  it and you fail to hold it right it was   full risk off below 45k and i've talked about  that so that's that's kind of how we got there so   after that you're not like you're not itching  to go along a lot of people looking for bull   narratives but you're avoiding them you're waiting  for confirmation right you're a smart trader   you've studied these things you've been around  more than one cycle and you want to buy into   bullish confirmation right you're not just going  to kind of buy every minor uh relief rally right   every minor balance to a moving average in in a  descending channel you're you're not going to do   that you're more patient you're more disciplined  so you've kind of been without a trade for most   of this choppy channel anyway so where are we  at let's go back so my last video was april 8th   um and in april and i talked about kind of here so  we had the rejection despite all the enthusiasm on   march 29th right it's worth observing the daily  tweezer m8 at the ma200 so right here so we kind   of saw all this coming we kind of saw it happening  in real time right we saw that everyone's   enthusiastic but we have a candlestick signal with  the shooting star at the upper bollinger bearish   confluence ma200 you know moving average underside  uh you know rejection and then the tweezer top um   which is fine because as long as you hold the  throwback everything's good you didn't hold the   throwback or the retest of the horizontal zone  but that was the um that was the beginnings of   that and then boom flashing a major warning sign  so this was april first first that's kind of led   into it on uh signs of a potential failed breakout  where i'm just gonna go i'll probably i'm not   gonna check the chat room i'm just going to kind  of riff here and hopefully get through these but   um you can see where we had the failed breakout  ring warning signs april 1st so we initially   started to violate it april 1st and we ended  up rallying on that day and people were again   long people were again itching to go long um this  was a blimp this is a bear trap you see the uh   where it's like they're scooping up the guppies  below the stop-loss level there's this meme   that like bulls were posting all the  way up to november and then you know   they're still here but um anyway so  that's what they were saying here   but for my money and what i've been talking about  in my commentary my analysis and i've talked about   this you can see it is that trust had already been  violated you'd already kind of broken the level   and for me i was you're starting to now look for  a lower high you're starting to look for kind of a   you know a bounce to fade at that point because  you're gonna you're almost definitely gonna break   uh that level so major warning signs and then we  did break through um so april 9th so so at this   point it's april 9th where am i at so i'm going  to kind of explain my thinking so we're down here   so we've broken down and i'm like confirmed in  my mind like okay i know exactly what's going on   with high confidence um and then just the price  continues to confirm that thesis right so now   we're down here april 9th down to around 42k and  we're at like a potential you know there's all   these like potential support levels 40k 42k  40k 37.5 these are all kind of theoretical   um ill-defined support levels as opposed to  the well-defined resistance zone right so   this is uh what was this in response to let's see  i basically said um basically like you know if   you're gonna risk money like you know arm yourself  it's almost like if you're gonna go into battle   if you're gonna go into battle you know like  don't go into battle without a set of armor and   a sword i mean like give yourself a chance right  because trading's trading so hard it's mind it's   a no it's mind numbing it's it's all that stuff so  someone replied or just close your eyes and doll   crash average bitcoin you know wake up and you'll  be happy in five to ten years and it's probably   true but like depends because first of all you've  got whatever only of like 10 years of history so   the whole thing like we can never go below a prior  all-time high before just because we haven't done   it i mean you don't have that many data points so  yes this maybe is true but you're giving away your   it's an excuse not to exercise any any risk  methodology along the way it's it's an excuse not   to define your risk and that goes against  everything you know everything you've learned   right um and it's always or say okay this is  your excuse to forego you know risk management   and basic trend analysis what guarantees do we  have this coming decade does what last one did   that's the point you can't just rely on that like  i've been in too many i've been down in too many   plays in too many chat rooms over the years where  i just wanted to hear what i wanted to hear i just   wanted someone to tell me it was going to be okay  and like this feels like that follow the trend   follow the trend focus on momentum all this other  stuff you can't you can't just assume it's going   to be okay you have to define your risk okay april  9th that's the back drop to that tweet april 10th   so what's going on with the price april 10th let's  take a look so we're after the failed breakdown   uh 45k we'll leave that up there we'll kind of  take a look here so what are we doing again april   april okay april 10th all right so yeah all right here so like all right so this  is you've lost 42k you've had a flush right but   what have you done um even though i'm people say  oh you're so bearish yes i'm bearish because the   price is bearish but you've got an upper to lower  bollinger move on the daily right you're you're   likely to have some relief soon some kind of a  minor mean reversion to the ema8 right and you   get that and you get this all the time where the  eight rolls over um and it's support and then it   becomes resistance on the way down and so you've  seen that it's just standard it's just standard   it's just standard right you gotta understand that  and that's why like look at what you're buying and   where you're buying it in kind of the context of  the story right um it's like a four act play like   understand where you're where you're buying in  that so this is after after it's breaking down   it's going to have a relief rally it's not the  bottom it's it's a bounce which should be faded   um but you can you can go long here and maybe  make some profit up to 45 1 5 42 k right so so   what i said was most likely scenarios relief  reset oscillators and then continue the fade   i'm basically telling you here we're probably  going to bounce and while that's bouncing like   the rsi is going to is going to build up again  right it's already down to sub 30 it's at 20 and   whatever time frame four hour hour everyone's  trying to go long early on their divergence   you finally get some relief and the rsi trickles  back up you get that hidden bearish divergence   with a higher high in the rsi back up  to 50 60 and then you can continue down   so you see pauses that's like what a bear  flag is does any kind of a consent um uh   consolidation or continuation pattern it it pauses  and allows those res those oscillators to reset   so that's what i mean right you all chad you're  so um you're so cryptic what do you mean i'm   not going to tweet this and then like type out a  book to you right you can read my book or you can   google you go to youtube like if you would be if  you're curious you know um satisfy that curiosity   do it but i'm not going to give you everything i  don't know the time for it and plus i could give   it to you and you still would say i don't know  what you're talking about so it's got to be your   journey but this is this you know there's this is  a pretty clear message relief reset oscillators   continue fade oh chad's what do you think this  tells you exactly what i think i could do a 10   minute video on this but that tells you exactly  what i think is going to happen there's all this   subtext and it tells you exactly what's  going on here we go next is april 11th   so i'm trying to so i'm telling you this first  i'm saying look people are going to probably   long here people are going to start long  in here let's uh clear that up a little bit and april 12th or we got here if you were smart  enough april 11th so if you're smart enough to   short so this is that same day we're kind of  breaking down we're below 40k um you can see   that kind of progression of those lower bollinger  dips in that rising channel right you can see that   if you're smart enough to short on that kind  of breakdown level which we know we talked   about kind of at the beginning major warning  signs ready for smart enough to short there um there's a good spot to take profit basically  i'm basically saying like we're probably gonna   bounce this is exactly what i'm saying like and  it's tying into that to that other uh quote from   my book where i said when you're when you're  so excited about your trade that you're getting   ready to send a screenshot to your buddy um that's  when you should take profit right and so i'm kind   of tying that in i'm basically saying like hey  if you're right now a lot of people are feeling   really good about their short probably good time  to take profit because we're probably gonna bounce   and so what is that that's on the that's on  the 12th and so we get a little bounce and   it's expected you get a little bounce right up to  the ema eight primary downtrend or primary uptrend   resistance it's like almost every time um and it's  typical so and a lot of people are getting excited   right here april 13th they're getting excited  and it's like this isn't where you get excited   you haven't even flipped the underside of this  price cluster it's like what are you doing it's   it's an underside ema-8 tag which is like a 9 out  of 10 reject on this kind of in this kind of price   action um it's like it's anyway i can't i just  i'm glad that other people disagree that's how   you make a market but i'm looking at this i'm like  of course so if you're smart enough take a profit   then it's bouncing while this is going  on this is a point i want to make   um sometimes i had someone say like chad's i don't  know if you're bullish or bearish like that's the   best compliment you can give me but i'm pretty  clearly like i i'm observing the the fact that our   the trend is bearish right now which is a  secondary trend secondary bear trend primary   uptrend you know kind of over a long you know  like a 10-year basis or whatever it's we're in   a strong bearish secondary trend right now that's  the trend but i can still articulate kind of a   larger bull thesis like a true chart technician  can articulate the bullish and bearish thesis like   that's the point you have to be able to because  if you can't you won't be able to see data points   that that kind of eventually will start to  build up in that direction and eventually   kind of topple it over like a seesaw right  you have to build so i'm still observing   three-day market structure still  intact with ma200 close above   and you can just kind of see the price as hell  has at that time had held closed above all of 2022   you know especially as it was setting kind of  the bottom of the range and setting the top at   you know 45k or 46k where it eventually broke out  and came back right so three-day market structure   still intact uh april 12th so that's that day  we're right here okay oh no that's here that's   this day okay as we're kind of expecting to bounce  a little bit of a bounce and what do we have here   april 14th so you know i'm watching it and we're  getting up here and i'm starting to look for   lower time frame rejections just because  that's where you should get one that's where   it makes sense to get one i start to observe the  beginnings of a tower top and i tweeted that out   four hour this is right here on that day four  hour looks like it's setting up for a tower top   i later kind of quote tweeted it as it had  completed and you know kind of like i guess   patting myself in the back or but it's also  because it's fun it's fun when you spot things   and they kind of play out the way you've read  in a textbook or the way it kind of makes sense   based on your interpretation and your experience  it's fun it's like when you hit when you're in   poker you hit like a flush draw the flush  hits it's exciting stuff like that right   so um what i'm trying to say here and this is  on april 14th so i basically said we're probably   going to release relief rally here's april  14th it's kind of in this area and we probably   just started to break down we actually had broken  down quite a bit i said a standard mean reversion   to primary downtrend resistance ema8 it's a  standard it's a mean reversion you're bouncing   back to kind of a mid the middle of the trend  a middle of that downtrend that allows your   indicators your oscillators to reset it's  a standard mean reversion bounce to primary   downtrend ema8 and then we have it right here so  i'm kind of showing showing what happened before   and then i'm showing showing what's happening  essentially on that day or really the day before   right standard mean reversion 4h tower  top into likely continuation towards   daily range lows what does that mean what is  that what what is that chad's you're too cryptic   chad's what does that mean i'm saying we just  bounced because we probably should bounce and   now we're going to reject where  we should probably should reject   at that spot where you look for it on a lower time  frame we have a reversal pattern that reversal   pattern just completed so we're probably  going to continue doing what we've been doing   towards towards in the direction of since i'm  trying towards in the direction of range lows   right that's what we're doing that's where we're  heading it's momentum it's like what direction   is the train heading what direction is the car  heading what direction is the missile heading it's   heading in direction that's what this tweet says  that's what i'm telling you here's your data point   price did bounce and chop above that but this is  what the trend is telling us okay now i'm getting   chad you're so bearish april 15th yeah i'm trying  to i'm trying to get through to you i'm trying to   explain to you that people are underestimating  the impact the damage on the trend of the failed   breakout and your favorite influencers are still  pumping you full of opium they're still telling   you it's gonna be okay they're drawing their this  they're drawing their that they don't want you   they want you to feel good i don't you know i want  you to feel smart i don't want you to feel good i   want you to feel smart and this is april 15th the  easy bunnies is made it's a grind that's it be   ready it's a grind get ready it's survival market  there's good money to be made but you have to   grind you have to learn you have to be smart okay  and a lot of you aren't gonna make it i know it   i just know it you're either you're either you're  just probably you know either you just don't have   the experience and you're probably not going  to work hard enough you have to work really   hard and you can maybe sometimes you have to get  lucky it's everything um but it's discipline it's   discipline it's risk management and that's why  that earlier tweet about like that's why this this   thing earlier drives me crazy here like  you can't just forgo risk management okay   because who knows i don't know if you're gonna  make it are you gonna be here for the next bull   run are you gonna have to capitulate  because you have to pay your bills   um i'm not bearish i just switched from  kool-aid to water i mean it's been a little   being a little bit harsh here but i just like  the copium the opium the kind of false like in my   just like not good ta hopi mta charts  it kind of bothers me because it's like   you can't ignore what's going on sometimes  i'm emotional um and you know some of that's   in here but i'm telling you what i think i'm not  i'm telling you exactly what i think all right   um i'm point this is a tweet i do where i'm  basically telling you pay attention to this   because i'm setting up the next tweet where i  say first close below since right i'm basically   saying it looks like we're about to break break  a record here because earlier we talked about the   fact that the uh three day ma200 had held right  it held right i'm telling you now i'm starting   to talk about it reminding you uh has not closed  below since april 2020 right where we're getting   there we haven't closed all right at that point  um and having that's on april 18th all right   and i'm sorry i'm clicking around a lot that's  right up in here we're still up in there okay   april 21st still holding the smash sma  what does that mean simple moving average   okay there's an exponential moving average and a  simple moving average right exponential means more   price uh more waiting more more data waiting is  given to the most recent candle okay exponential   simple means all all you know if it's simple  moving average 10 all 10 of the same weighting   equal weighting still holding sma-200 here's this  tweet on april 22nd and i'm basically saying like   like i i just i just i'm surprised people are  i'm really surprised people are not talking   more about this okay classical charting i  said it earlier like you establish a level   data points time interval historical  significance um it's context as well in this case   it was it was the it was let me show you  what i mean let me move in my hands um   so it's like it's this it's this metaphor i've  used a million times bitcoin live youtube videos   the downtrend has to try to go sideways before  up right red light turning yellow before green   and you're you were you had already you had i  say bulls had forced you had forced sideways   and it's clear that that sideways had been forced  right we had evidence of that on the daily chart   m a 50 recapture um you know moving average  crosses right with the bull cross here at 834   bull cross there was evidence that the  downtrend had been forced sideways but   you where's that pivot point right that's your job  is to identify levels in the chart that reflect an   increase or a decrease in the momentum momentum of  the trend okay and that was a level where you were   going from sideways to up and you were right there  right all you got to do flip ma200 um you know   hold the throwback to 46 flip ma200 and we were  at 58k that's why everybody had the target of 58k   everybody everyone was looking there because  that's where you're supposed to go that's where   you should have gone that's where it made  made sense to go big big big big big level   break out retest and go right and probably you  know have a little messy retest and just you   know stair step it up there didn't happen big time  failed breakout you can't ignore that that's like   a death knell to the bulls that's why you are i  you know 45 below 45k risk off i have the tweet i   talked about last you know last time i i call i'm  clear i'm in my opinion of what i when it's like   full risk off that was full risk off and i'm  saying that most most market participants are   under estimating the impact of the failed  breakout it's a you know and that's that's   how i felt then that's how i feel now okay  um again we're right there i'm saying listen   we haven't closed below that the three day  ma200 since april we're right there okay um and then we're getting close to it again  again a visual of what happened here we go now   we're getting fun so what happened after a bull  trend right it's when it it's not when it just   rolled over here and oh look what happened last  time it was this is the context people everyone   everyone misses the context because they're  so blinded by their bias they're so blinded by   the conclusion they want to reach  before even looking at the data   you have to you ha you can't say oh the last time  it did this was in you know whatever march of 2020   and it ran to all-time high no that wasn't after  a bull trend that wasn't after a big bull move   okay this is after a massive bull move because  you're looking at the contacts of the ma200 the   ma200 came up and flattened out so it was rolling  over same thing here it's the same context back   here after the massive bull run not the sideways  consolidation this is part of that was just part   of that that larger equilibrium right the high  the low lower high the higher low and the break   um that's like a you know it would that was  part of that move and that was part of that   consolidation after the big move so it's what  happens after a big move up when the ma200 is   starting to roll over sorry the yeah i may 200  rolling over what happens when you break it   i mean so you could see i mean that's a  damaged weakened to trend and that gets   you to 20k that gets you to sub 20k you know bear  flag targets take you kind of in that general area   so it's not it's not like it's it's not like it's  crazy to talk about this stuff and you're you know   ultra bear it's that you kind of look at your  look at what the trend could do and when you're   at those key pivot moments and we're saying  listen i'm saying here this is on april 24th   here's what happened last time not a prediction  i might say it's going to happen and then boom   another warning sign okay first close below  the three-day ma200 since april 20 2020.   all right here's these prior warning signs  here's the prior warning sign the failed breakout   here's another warning sign right starting to  break down that's a big deal um that's a big deal   i had a conversation with one of my one of my  one of my friends who's an excellent trader   excellent chartist and he was he was bullish and  i said i said basically we just had that's a big   deal that's a big deal to me in my analysis  and i think that's important um here we go so   this drove me crazy do i  have it look at this thing   it's like what are we talking about what are  we talking about with this like yeah yeah it's   a bold trend great so like what are you you don't  even need ta if this is your whole thing where um   it's always been an uptrend great then  like what are we even what is there to   talk about what are we even doing okay um  what are we even doing at that point right   within this what what's not what's between  the lines it was within this is all these   series of failed higher lows within this right  there's all these breakdowns you can see that   and it's about managing your risk and  it's about understanding the broader trend   so here's my point like and i saw this i drove me  crazy oh it drove me crazy it drove me crazy like   back at the like but at this topping period after  it was so clear we had topped off in november   like everyone just like zooms out to  a monthly and draws like a like a big   diagonal line and it's like oh we're still an  uptrend great like what is the point of that   um what is what does that do for what does that  do what why are we even here why are we even   here like what is the point right why are we even  looking at candlestick signals in bollinger bands   if like if if no matter what we're just gonna  fall back to this uh you know fall back to this   if we're gonna f if we're gonna fall back  to this then like what are we even doing   right this is like something carl the moon  would post so you know like what is the point   why even bother learning risk management and  ta so it just it drives me crazies all right   again four hour tower top so why am i  looking for a tower top all right april 26th all right let's clean it up a little bit all right april 26 april 26 that even happened  that's a three day okay so we're right here right   we just had a really nice candle okay um we got  another spring another potential spring right   where we set the low if we kind of recaptured  it and we closed near the the top of the uh   chat of the candle that's a great signal outside  bar completely eclipsing the prior two candles   big strong candle kind of mild volume normally  like this is a candle set to trap you but if you   observe we just had the outside bar it completed  the relief rally completed at the m850 underside   all right then you had the up  thrust or the false bull break here   right on the temporary uh temporary brake  and inability to hold you know that 42k level   see the outside bar the completed with weak  follow through this bull outside bar which   is what the great candle at that time four  bulls to force another you know force a relief   rally force a broader relief rally okay and it  bounced right in and the up thrust came back   and then another one so this is a really tempting  candle to get long on it's really tempting candle   get long on the problem is i wouldn't go  long unless i was already long down here   which would have been fine it would have been  fine to go along uh from when i say that from   the standpoint of being prudent cautious  uh taking advantage of kind of those basic   uh overreaction moves and on the recapture of  that low okay you went long there but up here   kind of light volume outside bar and  the last outside bar kind of fizzled out   um and i see m820s here i'm already thinking  fade i'm already thinking we're gonna reject   like it just makes sense we're probably gonna  reject here so i'm looking at like four hour i'm   switching to lower time frames you switch to  lower time frames um at the key levels okay   and we were at the m820 and that was the time uh  that was the time when i switched to four hour   i mean look at that gorge that's  gorgeous a beautiful tower top um so right here so look 4h outside chad ah  chat you're so cryptic oh he just wants to   i read i read a lot of them i don't respond oh  he just wants to tweet it both ways so he can   he can quote tweet you know he can  quote tweet whatever one is right   i mean it literally says here 4-h outside may be  setting up for a tower top what does that mean   what does that mean 4-h outside type of  tower top this it means this it's a tower top   it's the same thing we talked about earlier  had done this uh where was it relief rally   there there we go right it had done that tower top  it had done that it was it did done that recently   right um and it does at that key moment what  four hour for whatever tower tops on bitcoin   um they're pretty solid they're pretty solid but  it's about contact you're expecting a rejection   there i talked about that daily ma20 given the  context the weakness of the prior outside candle   you're looking for a top and you see it in the  candle progression too uh large candle body   you know smaller even smaller even smaller look at  the size of those real candle bodies the look of   the compress compression of the force and then  the outside bar look at that that's combining   eastern and western technical analysis the the  progression of that that candle body and then uh   a classical charting the outside candle that is  like momentum just got encompassed boom outside   candle now you're really looking for an out now  you're really looking for a tower top boom 4h   outside may be setting up for a tower top you  got to be defensive you have to read the trend   you see it there it is you know 40.5 k and boom  there's your tower top so it completes all right   it's not magic oh how do you do it chad's chad  you're a magician oh legend i'm no it's like right   here i'm i'm walking you through it i'm doing  these videos and i think too many of you have   been conditioned to believe that btc only goes  up and that's that's with this context earlier   i talked about um you know i talked earlier  about just like foregoing your risk you know   and there's no exa there's no guarantee that that  like this this 10 years is like the last 10 years   i don't like that you like you have to protect  your capital you have to protect your capital   every a good trade is like a first date it starts  out with an exit plan right you always start out   with an exit plan can't just buy and hold because  everyone else has told you that it's always worked   it that may be the case and yes i believe  i'm a btc maxie but like i'm not gonna hold   all the way down i have well actually it's funny  because i do have a huddle which i'll never sell   but i'm not like my trade portfolio um you  know my huddle is not an amount that's going   to totally over expose me one way or another and  i want to add to it but i'm not going to add to it   until there's a capitulation until there's  volume and volatility and some type of a thesis   that i can know when it fails i'm not going  to go heavy into it unless the price structure   is going to allow me a way to do that and then  to be quickly wrong and to know i'm wrong okay   uh for our tower top too many of you have been  conditioned to believe it only goes up and you're   buying the dips you don't understand you buy the  dip in an uptrend you don't buy the dip when it's   down trending when it's correcting right we don't  just buy the dips after it had a false breakout   you just wait till there's bullish  momentum wait until there's a recapture   on the daily chart you get back up above these  moving averages um so that you don't just buy   every dip okay and then there it is textbook  tower top right whatever right great call   so i'd rather be right in the other direction  i'd rather be right like calling like a buy the   dip when it's going up but like that's not what  we're doing that's not what's going on right now   all right i want to get back to just chilling and  relaxing listen i don't do these videos all that   often i'm a founding analyst at bitcoin live i  do twice a week full market updates um and chart   requests and we have a really great team when you  sign up you get access to all the content not just   my stuff everyone else's stuff and it's a team i  can really be proud of so i encourage you to check   that out um of course i'm on twitter i'm at big  sheds i'm the author of trading wisdom 50 lessons   every trader should know um feedback's been  unbelievable um i really appreciate that i read   i read those comments and um it's it's something  special it's really something cool and proud of um   i actually have a third book coming out sometime  this year i may push it back a little bit because   i really want to work on it it's trading quotes  quotes from the book and then i've taken like   all my new quotes like i'll go to the gym  and i'll come up like a quote like you know   farmers pray for rain like traders you know  pray for volatility whatever i'm just like   always thinking about this stuff um and so uh the  cover art is out i tweeted it out check that out   um but that'll be exciting new book this year i'm  an author i'd like to write um please do check   that out as well so i will tell you this that uh  trading is really hard trading super hard it's fun   and it's like when you get those wins you think  man all i got to do is do this again oh it's   easy and then so when you have a win you've  got to be really careful uh you got to be   super careful because after wins is when you  get riskier you you forgo your risk management   you make you make 400 bucks in a play you say oh  i can afford to lose 400 bucks so i'm gonna go   try something i'm gonna go  experiment like don't do that   you know be really careful after you have a win  right because you're going to be risky it just   always happens my biggest losses always come after  my biggest wins it's just it's just a fact so kind   of keep in mind i hope that that helps that  kind of um tidbit of wisdom i want you folks   to know that i do appreciate each and every one  of you even though i may not i'll respond to your   comments um i definitely appreciate you i've  been there um i've been in the trenches i've   been burned but i'm still around and that i'm  thankful for as i am for your continued support big chats out so you

2022-05-01 14:56

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