$BTC BREAKOUT? 4/2/22
yeah yeah we're all about fun big chats in the house saturday night we're just grooving to a little bit of uh funky music that's church eight wheels you know we're all crypto nerds trying to pretend we're cool so the music helps uh music definitely helps i am big chats it is saturday it's the second day of april i am blessed i'm thankful to be alive and i'm thankful that you're here listening to me it's a lot of fun um i'm i'm a chart guy i'm a newbie helper i love i love charity i love ta i love bitcoin that's kind of what i do that's why i'm here uh let's check in with the chat room i feel the positive energy listen folks i've been waiting i've been like wanting to do a show i've been putting off i've been putting it off um you know of course um i'm a founding analyst at bitcoin live and i do twice a week long-form market analysis there and that's something i you know i don't skip a beat on that that's something incredibly important to me i'll do a uh update tomorrow for the the closing weekly candle um but for these videos i mean you know the youtube videos they can wait and i apologize they can wait bitcoin live cannot wait you know i gotta find the right time so i have some thoughts i have some tweets i've kind of considered uh covering tonight um but there's great stuff up there right like of course i'm on twitter i'm at big chad's but i'm all over the map uh you don't know what i'm talking about you have no idea what i'm talking about i'm being cryptic i'm being random go watch my youtube stuff i mean i'm trying to speak to everyone but i also want i'm always trying to push you i want to push you a little bit i want to make you think like what is what does that mean right so anyway go watch my uh go watch my my live stream educational live stream tutorials it'll help you get started trading watch the long form interview series i've got a great interview coming up monday with peter mccormick long-time associate big fan of his and that should be super fun um check out the uh quick market updates and of course i am the author of trading wisdom 50 lessons every trader should know that can be found right now on amazon for formats audio kindle uh hardcover and paperback if you don't want to buy the book i i totally get it just just check out the free version on my youtube channel chad's trading and by the way please do consider hit uh hitting like and subscribe uh by the way check out the free version of the book i've done 13 of the 50 lessons i will eventually do the entire book for you for free just to wait i'll get it done for you eventually by the way i do have book three coming out shortly in the next few months my book on trading quotes um so thank you for letting me get that out of the way as always i would like to give a little bit of love to the chat room and um folks this is a worldwide phenomenon folks are here from iowa uh we have our man happy ramadan happy ramadan to you as well i want to say thank you and i want to i wish you that as well i appreciate you aloha from the islands aloha aloha it's nice to see you uh let's see how everybody's doing from all around the world it's a worldwide phenomenon hello from jordan um checking in from every everybody else people from all over the world you know it's fun these are things um you know what a time to be alive really what a time to be alive we can you can just turn on your phone your tablet maybe you're on the sofa and you're looking at me or we can communicate we can talk um so that that's fun look i really appreciate you being here thank you uh for joining hello from romania italy saudi arabia i mean look at this i'm just a guy hanging out i get all these great people from all over the world hi from arkansas uh nice to see you in sydney australia as well israel and philly no doubt that's a cool city by the way philadelphia um sydney london texas what's going on what's going on down in texas much love from the netherlands um i've been watching that uh on netflix the last kingdom i've really been looking into like 9th and 10th century history and that like the pagan versus christian thing with like the vikings and like the north sea all those kings and all the changing stuff i'm really into that really into that so that's interesting um anyway you're not here to listen to me talk about that you are here probably hear me talk about bitcoin um i kind of study it i follow it i eat sleep and breathe it i find it interesting we're in a really interesting spot so i kind of selected a series of tweets um that i have been uh bitcoin live members in the house awesome thank you so i know i'm late but i wasn't sure i had my friend was texting me was arguing with me about something it's one of those friends you can't like get out of the conversation you have to like no you know back and forth really trying to one-up each other um hello to everyone else morocco and delaware and uk costa rica that's awesome um we're in the really interesting spot right so you know if you're if you're not sure where to begin you know kind of referred at least my prior um my prior youtube videos my these market updates where i've kind of talked about the structure where we have that well-established resistance level 46k and you think about these classical charting concepts um and really what should inform you you start from that kind of like supply demand level and and how that level is established and you've got a well-established level you've got the time interval which means the attempts in between uh you know the the time between all the all the uh the price interactions with the level what i mean by that is uh middle december test to support test it again you know a few weeks later right that's part of a different move so that's one data point two data points really three data points arguably four you know five even here six you could argue that was a data point in terms of the price interaction with the zone right classical charting so you have the more price interactions with the zone the more significance it has the more important it is right so you've got all that cooking right we've talked about that what that means is basically the fact that in kind of like non-technical terms you have the fact that bitcoin attempted to bottom uh back in december let me pardon me attempted to bottom back in december and you have the um kind of that failed technical terms a failed double ever failed double bottom right double rounded bottom it attempted to bottom right at that level at 45k right so it's kind of said hey this is an important area and when it lost it it came back and it couldn't flip it so that's been the zone you've got a well-established level at 45 to 46 k and for momentum's sake you know whoever wants to say they have the trend they need to hold that level like this is a this is this is such an important level in this chart at least in terms of the last you know several months okay you can always if you're if you're a bull you can always just say hey look at the weekly or look at the monthly look at the yearly chart like we get it right we're not here to make our trades based on the yearly chart like we get it so thanks for the meme right the point is who has control of the trend um and we've been in this corrective environment ever since we put in the double top ever since we put in the double top with the up thrust back in november ever since we lost the ma200 we've been trying to recapture the ma200 okay and by all these ways you can measure these bounces you know you can measure these bounces the lower bollinger moving average bounce lower bollinger moving average bounce you know lower lower bollinger to moving average balance and recapture so now we're starting to get the kind of moving average recaptures right what does that mean that's the downtrend going sideways so we know we're sideways so we know we're sideways minimally right um please check your twitter books about questions uh question books books of study uh let me show you go here i have this shortcut which i've saved in my mind from big chad's packet type this in twitter search new follower packet you get all that stuff right right there type from big chess packet so whatever that that should answer your question all right uh let's see okay um ma200 right so you've got the price you have this level being established um and you and you need to you need to recapture that because that's been the long-term moving average in classical charting the ma200 is the trend you want to have a rising ma200 with the price above it and ever since we've kind of topped off we've been correcting and we've had these moves lower bollinger you know to upper bollinger and then here we've been sideways with the m8 with you know kind of the moving average recapture that i just talked about ama ema34 well first ema eight then 34 then the 50. um and then you start the higher low structure right you're seeing all the the elements of a bottoming right you're seeing all the elements of a bottoming kind of one um piece at a time you have a low right you have a clear low and that low had its spring entry right on the uh invalidation of the the the january 22nd low you formed the spring on january 24th right you had that entry i guess we'll go through those entries as well and then you have the higher low here so you have that construction to to where you have the higher lows you have the kind of the downtrend going sideways you have all that evidence kind of almost the clinical evidence of of of the weakening bear trend but you need the bulls to really step through you need the bulls to confirm how what does that mean moving average recapture you know certain amount of days or a percentage move above a key level and that key level is 46k right so 46k 46k 46k right you've got 46k you've got higher low structure now you've got kind of this ascending triangle this is kind of the most i would say logical way to look at it as a bull and the ascending triangle is normally a bullish continuation pattern right a well-defined horizontal resistance with the uh with the ascending hypotenuse hypotenuse the rising demand in this case and the measured move would be the height of the triangle um you know gets us to around 56 58k but what's really interesting in this case there's a couple things lining up one thing you need to always keep in mind when you're trying to apply the the measured move rule of classical charting is you want to take into account uh congestion zones just above so for example and i did this on the bitcoin live video on wednesday if you have you know if you have like say a bull flag and you're taking the measured move you're taking the height of the flagpole right if there's like a big resistance level just above that's going to be in the way right that's going to kind of hinder you from hitting that from hitting that um goal or that measured move just checking in here with the chat room everybody your words are so welcome i appreciate that good day little haiti crete greece i've actually been to uh mykonos before um in athens which is cool good to see everybody what's up from jersey and hello from norway uh thank you my friends so that's the thing you want to keep in mind and in this case it's the ma200 right so look at this blue line the blue line the ma200 is really important um when you lose it you you lost the ma200 here you lost it with velocity right and i need to kind of um get back on point i have some tweets i want to go over when you lose the ma200 with this kind of velocity um you're gonna almost always reject in that first re-test it was just such a strong move so when you break 46k here um you have to be on guard or on watch for a rejection at the ma200 so let's get to it um here we are uh march 28th all right so i was let's get let's uh let's clean this up a little bit let's see what's going on so march 28th so this day right here right so we're here shooting star daily shooting star app at upper bollinger band after ma200 underside tag notable right so this is like hey chad's uh you're so cryptic all right well here i am literally explaining it so you can go back and watch this video next time i'm being cryptic all right it's notable it's important and when i say notable usually it's it's really important um and here's the point it's it's a reversal candle at the right spot it's a reversal candle after a move after a big move with velocity i mean it went 37 to 47 pretty quickly and it's at the upper bollinger but it has the confluence that it's happening right at the ma200 and you're almost always going to reject at the ma200 so it was kind of a perfect spot uh for an ma200 queensland australia checking in with everybody else i don't use the ma100 honestly um i've from my from what i've studied and learned in practice ma200 but to each their own like i'll never i'll never claim i have the best method but i will teach you my method i'll teach you what i know and if it's of value to you that makes me happy and i'll cut i would put it that way uh let's see as well so that's the point we have the shooting star at the upper bollinger band that's you know japanese candlestick theory steve nissen that that's incredibly important what i say here observing this candle signal this is why candles are so important look at that i mean you're have to be defensive if you're paying attention i mean if you're minimally paying attention you have to be cautious after that candle i mean you are you're asleep at the wheel if you are not cautious after that candle given the context given the context that the velocity of the move uh one two three four six seven eight nine i mean nine green days in a row into the ma200 underside tag shooting star upper bollinger band i mean you are you are neglect in your duties if you're not cautious minimally in that all right it's notable okay um throwback to the 45 to 46k area would be logical and by the dip right what is that what does btd mean to buy the dip okay confluence email why are we buying the dip well you know it's it's a bit it's a basic strategy it doesn't mean it always works um but if you've got a resistance level and then resistance level is multi-tested with time interval time in between and you break out if you come back and you throw back you want to buy the dip it's just a nice clean entry it's kind of what you're looking for it's almost in theory how you should be structuring your trades a lot of them okay uh appreciate everybody chat room's great i'm just checking here hello from bulgaria great to see you um to look right there you go oops i just deleted that well that was a data point oh what i said was pauses all right i just deleted that let's just find it though pauses okay yes here we go so look if btc pauses let's there we go b2c pauses so you see a shooting star on the chart you're like okay btc is probably going to pause here if bt deposits watch the e-btc part chart because this is a clear pivot what's the pivot pivot's like kind of a momentum turning point and because it's important because when eth btc is rising bitcoin's not breaking out right and this is right here this was uh march march 28th so that was right here this is right here i'm saying like pay attention look it's got a pivot what does that mean right it's right here it's rising that's not bullish for bitcoin and it's got this big level right if you clear that level and the ma200 you're bullish you're really bullish which is not bullish or bitcoin and that's that's happening as you're seeing this signal on bitcoin right the shooting star of the upper bollinger band so i'm saying watch that pivot and in that tweet is the suggestion that th here might be another sign of a local top for bitcoin all right and then we have sentiment i mean how good is sentiment how good a sentiment i could search right now and i nail i nailed the november top on sentiment other tops too i'm not the only person but like i'm proud of what i did and it's sentiment right and here we it sentiment was was topped it was really strong and it's it's as good as as any ta i have that i can teach you just it's just a feeling because people get really excited and they tend to get really excited right when you are putting in that shooting star candle right when you are at you have had 12 green days in a row and you're at a key level and they don't care about the ma200 they're excited they don't care about the the over extension of the price uh they don't care about the information that has been given to you in that japanese candlestick right they don't care about that telling you that bears are rejecting higher prices and that it's giving you a kind of a um confirmation with not only the eastern signal with the candlestick but the western signal the ma200 the moving average and kind of that price interaction with the ma200 so what happens next btc the eth to alts why are we having a big old season look at this tweet march 29th march 29 29th i'm telling you our alts are about to have some fun we are right there and you are feeling a lot more comfortable about your shooting star candle call you have essentially a tweezer top forming um you know basically where the price tried to rally again and was rejected at the ma200 you know you're getting more confirmation here on march 29th that your original view of the march 28th action was um you know right on right btc so there you go i'm telling i'm telling you what i'm what i feel it doesn't mean i'm right i'm just telling you how i'm seeing it hopefully at key moments and there it is and this is always happens this way when do i last time i said this was like november top i'm not saying this november top but there's moments i think we had a similar moment uh if you go back uh if you go back to the 53k top right here if you go back to here we have some kind of similar price action where it was kind of an like a minor top like i feel like this is a minor top um and by the way we could you know i'll get to the fact that you know bulls are not certainly not out of it um and i haven't even kind of mentioned the fact that um really well let me just get this out of the way before i continue on um you have that level to be established at 46k 45k you have the breakout and rejected at the ma200 um you know what why would i skip forward i'm gonna get right to it so all right the people get excited near top of the channel i'm suggesting to you that we're potentially topping and i'm thinking maybe it's a failed breakout right you're always thinking how can the market screw the most people you bounce above the ascending triangle get people really excited and you come back below now you have an up thrust and i've been on watch for this i talked about this on the the wednesday night a bitcoin live video if you look at kind of the analog of what all coins did last may june july really june july where they established highs the highs of their mean reversion bounces and then kind of a month later they bounced above and then failed to hold that hold that level kind of generating a short signal in reverse i've been kind of on guard for that so i think below 45k we're in big trouble i'm gonna get to that uh in here a moment here we go march 29th all right i'm talking about sentiment do people get excited near the top or the bottom of the channel march 29th 10 in the morning march 29th right you know people are still pretty excited right there right despite all the enthusiasm right it's important you have to check yourself you have to always check yourself you know um like that thing i've said that tweet that quote from my book um you know when you when you sell when you're about to send your body a screenshot of your trade you know like that's when you should take profit or the one i put out recently where i said before you congratulate yourself on a good trade make sure to take profit right like i mean i i say because i do it all the time you're like hey look at this trade i'm up big and then you turn around and you've like you know it's already gone down like take profit before you brag um and that's what what's why that's important is you have to check your game you have to check yourself you have to kind of stay on top of of your your your emotions and and you have to realize wow wait a minute i'm too enthusiastic why am i so enthusiastic why am i still so enthusiastic enthusiastic given given the price interaction with the ma200 bottom line how can i still be enthusiastic right um so here we go all right and then boom 45 6. so here we go march 28th throwback to 45.6 would be logical and by the dip and then boom there's the throwback we threw back and it made sense we're rejecting it the ma200 right shooting star tweezer top you know pretty weak follow through i mean here you're you're thinking 60 70 percent you know reject uh maybe 70 80 reject um and then boom but that's your by the dip we talked about buying the dip we initially failed we initially failed and we can go low we can go low time frame and i'll get to that in a minute um we've shown some weakness here recently but uh we did it we initially rejected drop below 45k so do i have the tweet next here we go btc flashing april 1st and you know it's not it was not april fools i i take what i do seriously i'm not i'm not going to like try to be funny you know j you know i'm not going to try to be funny on april first because like what i do is serious i try to be serious i take it's almost an oath i take um uh it's that's me saying i appreciate you and i try to respect that um that trust we built up together and so btc flashy major warning signs of a potential failed breakout you always pay attention you always pay attention you always pay attention to when you have a well-established level tested tested tested tested if you break out you fail to hold it that's such a strong signal if you could and then by the way my fourth book book project is a um poker and trading crossover book and some of the some elements of that have to do with like selecting tiers of trading entries and this would be like a tier one or this would be like plain pocket aces right on this type of a setup where you have that well-established level where you fail when you break out you fail to hold it and really i mean below 45k we're in serious trouble i mean that's that's the bottom line from everything i know and have studied right um and so i talked about that uh with the throwback and you want to hold in the throwback it doesn't mean you're going to right initial it initially failed um hasn't completely failed yet but there's there's some weakness signs here but there's weak weak weakening signs here and i've talked about them but there's other signs too eth ptc i talked about that that's important btc eth alt so this is all kind of in the same basket okay um i've never seen this guy be bullish i mean i don't know brother i've been around a long time i mean if go find when bitcoin's been bullish and see what my analysis is um go check it out you know i mean i didn't nail the exact bottom last year i was a little late like 33k 33 or 35k i kind of confirmed um so i you know i lost you know i wasn't right at 30k but you know i i'm bullish with bitcoin's bullets like the weatherman doesn't make the weather that's who i am uh it's about you not me right you got to think about that that's your bias um so flashing major warning sign potential a breakout that's incredibly important you see that illustrated in this photo right i i try to you know sometimes i'll do the arrows i'll do the picture and you can see that you can see how this level is well established with time interval you see how the support became resistance became resistance the breakout the rejection in here right at the time of this tweet 449 were flashing major warning signs um absolutely i'm just look i've been wrecked so many times i i don't want others to get you know i'm trying to just share with you what little i've learned i still have no idea what i'm doing um but i'm having fun i'll share i'll share with you what little what little i've learned all right hopefully that helps uh i appreciate that compliment um at this time we were threatening the breakdown and i talked about this on bcl like you you lose this level you're in big trouble um we're still kind of fighting right now we've got some low time frame weakness i want to get to that though on my next tweets so the next tweet i want to talk about btc 1h interesting spot right i saw some people um it was funny some people replied uh in the in the tweet they said uh hey oh chad's with a diagonal line right you know because they never see me use them i'll use them but i don't use them the way you're using them i don't use them for entry or exit like there's no line it's a trend i'm just i'm just i'll draw it to identify a trend and i see a descending i see a structure of a descending supply right a structure of descending resistance it's not exactly here it's a filter around the line there's no line there's only a trend there is no line that's that's the trick with diagonal lines is that there is no line there's actually just a trend and so there's a trend and this is an interesting spot because it had just recaptured this clear underside level right the uh the support had been right at 46k 47k and price had broken down so you're watching to see if it's going to put in an up thrust or a false bull break you're watching for the price to trap people you're watching for the for a setup where the most people get screwed and you kind of and just usually works out that way and you're thinking okay you know break this level trap you know trap bunch of people on that 47k break and then reject here on that on that level and come back below i mean that's a great short if you bounce here above 47k rejecting the diagonal and come back below 47k that's like a nine out of 10 short i mean without a doubt um especially below this high uh here and this is a one hour chart if you're below this high i mean it's like that's like a nine and a half out of ten short um and so that was at 47k so it was an interesting spot right um and then what i talked about here is btc 1h has flipped ema8 from support into resistance watch that for momentum clues and here i'm pointing out how when the price had been accelerating um the price had regained that ama the exponential moving average aloha from hawaii nice to see you um ian oh and the price had regained that exponential moving average it had used it as support but here we're seeing the price rolling over and you see this all the time on on really any time frame it's a great way to track the trend um and so what are we doing now we'll just kind of look into it now what has happened since that tweet right one hour ema eight i mean what are we doing what are we doing people you wanna ask me why i use the ema eight i don't use ema eight the price uses it i just report on it right i'm just the weather man i'm not out here creating the price action um so that's kind of the gist of it right we're in danger of a failed breakout below 45k um low 45k yeah below 45k risk off i mean that's it there's just no question there's there can be no question um just like narratives right yeah there's a lot of the what the t-wop and i had to look up what t-wap means um and i said maybe i still don't understand it but i don't need to right i just i just follow the price i feel like if you're gonna buy because you think someone else is buying you're going to get in trouble you need to remove all of that from your system your system needs to just be based on the price interaction with the key levels and momentum right if we're below 45k you need to be out of the market of bitcoin um but you might see a great altcoin run because all coins have been doing great right and that's been a warning sign like xvg was pumping i saw zil q had like a ridiculous bounce um a bunch of stuff had ridiculous bounces uh you know look at that eth btc you can't be you can't be bullish on bitcoin given what this is doing in my opinion the way i see the market right so that's just uh i mean that's just kind of what i wanted to do look i've been by the way you know i next it could be 53k the next time i do a video update like in a week or two right because i don't do them that that often but um this is what i see right now right uh things can change right and and and i will change with new data but like this is where we're at now you can't have a level like this which is so well established you can't break it and then fail to hold it like that's a signal you can't ignore all right um so i'll pay attention to that someone says what about alts look you need to be playing mark you need to be playing relative strength participants luna right um near has been strong right play stuff that's above the ma200 and rising and doing stuff like this breaking lower highs uh don't play your garbage coins if it's a downtrend it's probably going to continue to be a downtrend and you're just going to hate yourself for holding it don't let these trades own you that's that's like the real alpha that's the secret don't let these trades own you like why why let some random coin own you your time is too valuable your sleep is too valuable don't let these trades own you that's my advice um we got to stay above 45k you know for we're above 45k um you know we have a good shot because all you have to do really is clear ma200 okay all you really have to do is clear ma200 you clear ma200 i feel like 58k is is gonna be you know 80 90 percent uh that kind of measured move from the triangle kind of that last major cluster um after the breakdown kind of that initial you know the initial ema 34 rejection that i've talked about uh we had that kind of um four hour failed head and shoulders i've done like three videos on that so you guys you guys and gals can go check that out but listen that's where we're at um i'm on twitter i'm at big chads academic observations about price trading psychology risk management i appreciate um appreciate your your follow in your interactions i'm on twitter and i'm on youtube at sheds trading if you're new to technical analysis and you're really confused about what i'm talking about watch the tutorials those will help you out watch the long form interview series i have great guests i really get into kind of all sorts of great stuff with them brilliant minds um i am the author of trading wisdom proud to be the author of trading wisdom 50 lessons every trader should know feedback's been unbelievable the book is on amazon uh kindle four formats kindle audio uh audiobook hardcover paperback if you don't want to buy the book i get it right i have a free version on my youtube channel go to the playlist 13 of 50 lessons i will eventually have the whole book for you for free so uh please do check that out and if you're serious about learning how to trade you want to learn technical analysis bitcoin live i mean i'm totally i i'm behind behind it 100 best in class educational platform for crypto i've been doing twice a week long form market updates for almost four years i i will not miss an update even if i'm on vacation something i'm really proud of unbelievable team you get access to everyone's content not just mine so please consider checking that out um you know more than anything i'm just happy to be here i'm happy that you took some time to listen to me uh we're all connecting from all all different parts of the world you know but we have so much in common there's you know it's easy to think that the people we see in the street or the people we're talking to online are different than us we really have so much in common and so i want to thank you for that for our common humanity um we all mostly want the same things and i'm just happy to be here and um more than anything i wish you all well um let's get this finished off with a little bit of party a little bit of a party this is church of eight wheels and uh that's the way to do it folks i wish you well foreign
2022-04-04 16:29
