$BTC #Bitcoin What do bulls want to see happen next?
all right my friends good luck good looking out there i want to say what's up i want to give my love to the crypto family thank you for joining me here tonight i want you to reach out say hello here in the chat room and let me know let me know if you can hear me and let me know where you are in the world right now i'd love to know what's going on and where you are this is a worldwide thing it's a worldwide phenomenon you know i'm just happy to be part of that thank you for coming for the dance session this is a quick market update here for bitcoin um let's just get right into it i do see the chat rooms thank you for having my back folks here with the uh you know technicals with i want to make sure you can hear me stuff you know in the past i did a whole show that was mute and i had to redo it so let's get things going hello from nigeria to queen let's go belgium uh we got portugal we got australia we got austria oh we got san diego in the house we got iraq um wow south florida what's what right we got it we got a great squad that's what i like you know something like crypto brings everyone together let's get right to it you can find me of course i'm on twitter at big chad's academic observations about the price trading psychology of course my book is on amazon trading wisdom 50 lessons every trader should know i'll read from it briefly tonight four formats the audiobook format is out check that out if you can't afford the book i'm doing it for free i'm going to put the whole book for free in this playlist eventually so far 11 lessons check that out brand new to trading you want to know you know where can i get started um you know i wanna i wanna start to read the chart right but i don't really know where to start that's like always that's the most important question like where to start because if you wanna you wanna know what the right direction is because once you can identify the right direction you can put some effort into it you know you can apply yourself and nobody wants to apply yourself in the wrong direction start out with the tutorials these are master classes they're going to save you so much time and trouble i explain my full technical setup i explain how to identify support and resistance uh simple techniques as well definitely check that out and check out the other quick market updates um like this one and if you're interested in really learning how to trade i am a founding analyst at bitcoin live for more than three years i've been doing a twice a week full market update and i will not miss an update i haven't missed one in years great team you get access to everybody's stuff i really definitely encourage you to check that out so we got a little bitcoin here i'm just going to read like a couple lines from the book let me just check in the chat room real quick first though first of all um i'll never i'll never see all the messages so um i'll you know go back and read them later and the feedback's wonderful so thank you for the feedback um if you read the comments like you know when after the video's up be careful they're scam bots it's not me that you know i'm not on telegram i'm not on discord uh twitter and youtube so just kind of be careful out there folks all right ireland greece good to see you what it's great i love it um you know kuwait look at that netherlands awesome hawaii uh i love it i love to hear it india great to see iran and just all around the world albania mexico switzerland and it's fantastic how could you look at me i never would have thought like 10 years ago i'd be in this position where i can just talk to all these all these people and we have it all in common so here's something we all have in common right we struggle with we struggle with um admitting like we messed up right we struggle with admitting the trade has failed and like in moving on so lesson 19 sell and move on cutting failed trade positions not only frees up trading capital it also frees up mental capital holding on to and watching your red positions is an emotional dream so it's you know you're you you're down in the trade and you don't want to sell you know but you got to keep watching it and never you know you want to be in a good mood but every time you pop it up there's the loss it's staring at you and it's just every time it's a negative it's it's hanging all you know hanging on your back and you know i gotta tell you so many times there's a really interesting feeling where you're in a trade and you kind of get married to it and you kind of break a few rules you know you're down you add to it when you shouldn't there's a moment where eventually you do give up which is good because you have to cut right you got to cut a bad idea when you sell that there's this amazing feeling it's like all of a sudden this this this burden has been lifted from you you feel so light because you don't have to think about it all the time it doesn't have to occupy you and that's the thing you you can't let your trades occupy you you can't let your trades own you right so do you avoid that obviously by betting very small amounts these are other lessons we'll get into that so you know basically if and then like another one is like after you sell the trade you still think about it all the time after you've sold it right and if you know with like a loss you can't get over a loss if you spend time obsessing over old losses you have a high probability of generating new ones so you've got to be like you have to be unafraid to try and fail and try and fail and it's like it's not personal and it doesn't mean you're a bad person if you make like a bad trade and that's the thing it's like you get in this trap where especially if you're on a bad streak if you've lost three or four trades in a row you kind of start feeling you start like hating yourself and it's not about like he was you as a person like trading's really hard and you're probably yeah you're probably betting too much you're probably not you know using a good confirmation system or a good stop-loss system you're probably trading against the trend you're probably making any number of mistakes so that's just a little taste of that from the book so let's talk about a couple scenarios right so i've talked about it before like for me for from in my view the top is pretty easy to see coming and i kind of laid it out ahead of time my thesis and you know the day of the top the litecoin pump that was pretty much the top um but like what's the bottom i i don't really know what the bottom is so i'll be honest that i'm just like you right now it's i don't really know you know i you know i found the top i mean it was a little bit early but that was a lot easier to spot than the bottom we don't have the data right now and we really just have a moment where we're kind of hoping bulls catch a bit right um you want to be looking at scenarios right that's the thing with technical analysis and if you you know absent especially absent a lot of information we had a lot of information up here um we got a very clear kind of a markets uh a market story the rise up in the etf and then kind of the ethereum balance and the litecoin balance and then we have the technicals you know the double top with the with the up thrust and then the outside bars with all these you know all these kind of um data points here it's just kind of a slow every time it's just a relief rally and we're still just doing another relief rally right until proven otherwise and we're below 40k but you also kind of want to be in the habit of scenarios and envisioning ways a chart might be turning around it doesn't mean you act prematurely or early but it means you're kind of you're examining the chart and you're kind of ready you're kind of ready for you know the momentum to take a move to change direction and then the question is at what point is it really like a serious change in direction right you have to it's a big pivot point right so that was a lot of talk here bottom line is this we don't really know if the bottom is in but here's a possible path for bulls and i talked about this and let's do this first actually mystery chart let's do this first mystery chart are you buying or selling i tweeted this and if you look at this you're like what am i doing with this for me i see this and i see it's definitely a downtrend and i think this little bouncing here to the upper bollinger it's probably going to reject and head back down so i would say edge bears on this chart right i'll let you look at it for another second and kind of like you know what would you want to do would you you know no no other information would you want to be long or short on this chart i'd want to be short right i'd go with the trend well guess what it's an inverted bitcoin weekly chart and it's a way to kind of test your bias it's an averted weekly bitcoin chart right it's an inverted inverted weekly bitcoin chart right there it is so it's like you got to remember okay you know that's why it's it's it's reasonable let's do there we go that's why it's reasonable to be looking for a bowl scenario here and what would one be i mean he just like i said earlier though he doesn't mean it doesn't mean you act early right um here's a bull scenario so possible path for bulls so 40k and i've always kind of been my commentary both everywhere right bitcoin live twitter youtube you know 40k we got to flip 40k and i've always i've been basically saying i've been expecting a relief rally to tag 40k and probably reject there but if it doesn't reject there right so you know what how might it unfold potentially so recapture 40k so recapture so rather than reject right rather than reject you know we're looking for a recapture all right recapture 40k all right step okay fine what's next turn uh turn that turn that into the invalidation level for inverted head and shoulders what does that even mean right what does that even mean what does that mean invalidation level so you know we've covered this in my prior actually in my prior like quote unquote quick market updates um like right here where we had an attempted you know inverted head and shoulders and you could see a lot of the uh you know plenty of the other folks on twitter were looking for that you know the quote you know a lot of the other technicians perhaps the invalidation you know the confirmation level 60 k maybe a tiny bit lower invalidation level is you know like with anything we've talked about the concept that you have an invalidation level and you have a confirmation level and validation is when the trade idea is invalidated and the reason why that's important is because almost every signal that fails like that becomes a signal in the other direction right that becomes a signal in the other direction that that's something of value so we had the invalidation level right there's your invalidation level at fit at that right shoulder that's when you sold your longs and kind of like the failed bull rally so what was i saying here okay turn that into the turn that into the invalidation level so i'm trying to turn 40k into the invalidation level what that basically means is turn that into the invalidation level okay i'm doing all this good stuff and then i'm here what do we have we have a shoulder head and shoulder with the invalidation level being the you know the breakdown and the confirmation level being the neck base line right head shoulder head and shoulders so that's like that bull scenario turn that into the validation level reject to the 44k area that's right here you're projecting here because you're kind of forming the neck baseline reject the 44k area form the neck baseline like i just said and then eventually break it okay we're doing a lot this is a lot of stuff here this is a lot of um you know like don't like hold me to this if it doesn't happen right this is theoretical it's for learning but um you form the neck baseline and then eventually let's clean it up a little bit let's clean up a little bit so you form your neck baseline okay and we have our invalidation level and we'll kind of just indicate it like that so you get a generalized sense let's do it like that and we got our neck our um invalidation level yada yada yada like right like that right eventually break okay and then be tested with a throwback so a lot of my entries are on what's called a throwback or a bullish retest okay come back and you throw back retest that and go and that would be ultra strong and it'll be it would be clean it would be um it would be it would be steady like the best moves are steady that kind of consolidate along the way that don't kind of you know go up and then slowly bleed right so that would be a nice way for bulls like a path a path for bulls i mean am i betting in that path i don't know i really don't know actually i need to see 40k flipped to become optimistic right but i'm kind of you know i often say whatever you play it's something you should be watching and whatever you're watching you want to kind of diagnose the chart you want to break it down you want to identify those pivot level pivot levels you want to be ready for you know different possibilities so that's one possibility possible path for bears i'm going to check in the chat room thanks for the feedback treasure the man i'm enjoying this by the way thank you folks you know everybody who's watching here i i appreciate it so thank you uh i'm just hey why i'm not why why wouldn't i be honest i'm going to tell you what what i think i if i'm wrong it's a chance to learn that's always kind of been my thing uh you come from columbia what's up jules comastas uh jules uh bienvenido uh let's see all right so what do we got here possible path for bears relief rally to 40k and reject there so what's interesting if you pick this up is even under my bearish scenario i'm still expecting bitcoin to get to 40k here or you know 39.5 but pretty much right to 40k because that's the breakdown level and it's a logical target for the relief rally i've been talking about that and all my commentary everywhere expecting this kind of lower ballinger bollinger to moving average resistance type of you know relief rally or counter trend move logic logical target 40k and confluence with the sma or simple moving average 20 right so we've kind of the price has shown a propensity to be rejected at that level therefore we want to identify it and um use that as a kind of a to add some some weighting to the idea that this is an important level right and there you go so that's the bare thesis so what's what's interesting is that even in and i think we're fine with the mystery chart for now but even in this scenario i'm expecting the relief rally still to hit 40k still the bear scenario bounce to 40k and reject in the bear scenario right rather than recapture the level both scenario we're going to recapture you know here here we're going to reject okay we're going to reject the 40k and sorry about that now i've done the bulls clean it up now here's just the bare one rejected 40k okay relief reality 40k reject there in the pullback which this would be a bearish retest from classical charting where you have a resist a support level that's broken and then you have the bearish uh retest that is called a pullback so that's correct then you said press back to range lows 33k what does that mean what does that mean like press back to range lows well press pressing is basically like pushing price is pushing um in a fashion where there's not much time for the counter trend to really to to put in any relief maybe a 15 minute reset maybe a 15 5 minute or 15 minute you know rsi reset but we're not talking like longer reset just keep pressing keep pressing right um so what do we do boom reject press range lows it kind of come back probably pretty violently three candles three four five candles pretty violently and press the range lows testing that testing that area right pressing range lows briefly break and then recapture to trap bulls so what i'm proposing is this is just for fun by the way like i said earlier i'm not out here predicting i can't predict my lunch tomorrow i'm not going to predict bitcoin in two weeks okay but if we reject it here and we come back now we're pressing range lows you know you always got to think of like what's max payne and how could you screw the market um you know i just have traded long enough i've seen it so you kind of think all right range loads what might we do you might come in and then briefly dip and recapture to form the spring which is what i've talked about so many times you get everybody long then you come up here and then boom flush them and you just just catch everyone so the real trap like the initial trap is to trap the longs i mean just boom right total total uh sadism or just that's just the crypto market it's gonna it's gonna separate you from your money if you're not careful flush again and then break 30k with force so we flush boom we break 30k with force at that point you know where's your next support you know 24k so boom right down to 24k quickly in that scenario so that's kind of the bet the possible path for bears right so that's that right bull path bear path um you got to be ready for both honestly you know um and the really the simplest thing to do is just watch horizontal levels and especially when you have a clean kind of level like 40k and um it's a clean psychological level just be disciplined and say look i'll be i'll be bullish above 40k and i'll be bearish below it let's check the chat room real quick uh everybody everybody's underexposed big chest is crushing the big shots high five from ireland hey i really appreciate that high five to you you can find me of course just a reminder i'm on twitter at big chad check out my youtube check out those tutorials they're really going to help you get started trading check out the free version of the book trading wisdom 50 lessons every trader should know the book is on amazon the feedback's been unbelievable i mean i i'm blown away so thank you so much for all that support um again free version free version on youtube if you really want to learn how to trade if you want to if you if you really want to join the team check out bitcoin live it is unbelievable i'm incredibly proud to be part of part of it founding analyst you get my dedication twice a week full-time full market updates great team you get access to everyone's stuff definitely consider checking that out um it's been a pleasure today is it's saturday it's the 29th of january i wish you well out there if you're struggling you know there's several things i would suggest and uh first of all you know watch watch you know my youtube stuff because i really try to get a lot of those ideas fleshed out but i try to simplify it too bet less you know like whatever your position size is it's too big unless you're already making money like smaller positions are easier to manage so you want to like you have to to be a successful trader it's it's in spite of yourself like in spite of your own all your bad habits so you have to like find ways to protect against yourself and like allow yourself room to mess up so if you bet little amounts you allow yourself room to mess up you won't get as involved emotionally with the trade it might be easier for you to stick to an actual plan of buying at a key level after a big drop when you're scared to buy there or sticking to your guns and selling when that support level that has held you know breaks you know it's easier to manage those smaller positions so i would do that um that's really number one number two you have to cut your watch list in half at a very minimum you're watching too many things you don't understand what you're watching so you kind of end up bouncing around you're bouncing around between all those charts and you're kind of chasing the loss from one play and another play and so you're kind of not even you don't even really have a plan so cut it in half and learn the charts that you want to play all right and you know thirdly those need to be the strongest stuff out there only play continuation plays do not play any reversal plays anything that is below the ma200 completely ignore it um anything that is continually losing support levels just just get rid of it and if you like it wait till it starts to regain some of those lost levels just stay away from it continuation plays are the easiest way to do it so that would be kind of what i would leave you with here at the end i really appreciate each and every one of you uh for coming here let's get this party going here once again and party you
2022-02-02 05:07
