$BTC #Bitcoin Long Form Interview - Scott Melker (Wolf of all streets)
what is up what is up what is up folks thank you so much for coming today thank you for taking a little bit of time out of your schedule i am big chad's today is saturday february 5th 2022. just give me a quick shout out in the chat room and please confirm if you can hear me you know if the audio is is okay and we'll get this party started folks hi from austria what's going on greetings from turkey what's going on everybody let's see let's see chad hey good to see you thank you so much good evening amar great hi from jordan that's wonderful hello from london all that stuff folks you can hear me loud and clear that's wonderful hey from malta and we got iran malta this is this is a worldwide thing this is a worldwide phenomenon phenomenon i can't even spell that maybe i can say it uh it's a lot of fun so i have a wonderful guest today his name is uh scott melker wolfe of all streets uh i've done lots of stuff with you know dumb work with him before on his channel and my channel and other people's channels um this is part of the long-form interview series let's get this going on real quick i'm on twitter i'm at big chad's um you can find our guest today scott melker at scottmelker on twitter um he just took a lot of really good information we'll get into that he's got a newsletter he's got all sorts of really great series right so i've done uh this is number four i've done a three before this and really i want to hear what the guests have to say you know i really try to get the best minds uh in this space and so that's kind of what that's all about if you're new to ta definitely check out the tutorials a lot of my questions that i get on twitter a lot of questions i get on twitter about how to set up my chart can be answered by watching those tutorials and just as a quick reminder um you know i'm a founding analyst at bitcoin live the best in class educational platform for for crypto so um if you're serious about learning and uh that's where i would recommend that you go to kind of get started so what's the deal i'm gonna do like two minutes i'm gonna do about two minutes on bitcoin and then we're gonna talk to our guests so you know for me i kind of saw the top coming we've talked about that in the past uh with the etf run up and then kind of the the nut top really that litecoin bounce and you know since then and that's all up here and that's all in my public work on twitter and on youtube and that's up here and since then we've been doing the mean reversion the relief rally kind of deal right and it's always a question of when does a relief rally um potentially turn into a trend reversion or kind of a resumption rather of the uptrend here um you know we're watching for things we're always watching for signs of a weakening force and for me it's been this yellow line the ema 34. you know bulls have been unable to close above the ema 34 which is rejected here in november at the height of that bounce rejected here in december at the height of that relief rally rejected just short of it a little while ago uh about you know a few weeks ago and then right here we closed above it that's a sign of weakening bear force um so that's that's important that suggests that that we may be at the point where we're at least going sideways you go downtrend you have to go sideways before you can go back up maybe we're doing that and really importantly is we've kind of gotten back up above 40k that's a key pivot level so if you wanted to go long we had a very nice and clean easy entry here uh when we broke above 40k what we do next anybody knows we're still we're still consolidating kind of for me at both these just maybe an inverted head and shoulders your break um you know your breakout would be there and your invalidation would be somewhere like in that level so anyway we can we can get into that uh you know another time let's get my man up uh my man scott melker here i see him nodding what up what's god what's up hold on how are you i got a weird shadow in my face i can see that but we're gonna have to deal with it does it sound all right i look a little jerky on the camera for something oh it's good it's good do you want uh i think we're good to go yeah let's do it it's um so anyway how are you doing man how's life uh florida right how's life down there for you it's good man this is a rare uh saturday where i took an hour but wife was like i'll watch the kids if you're gonna talk to chad's it's cool oh that's so nice man yeah i do appreciate it she's taking over duty i'm always uh always excited to have a chance to talk to you man definitely so um let's uh you know i want to have you kind of walk through your charts too you know maybe not this moment but kind of get that ready just so we can fire it in um why don't you start out as always just kind of tell you know most people know who you are but if they don't uh maybe they're just a big chat super fan that's not your name man that's scott melker that's not my name it's a big chat super fan that's right all right all right so tell us tell us folks a little bit about you or we can find out about your work um sure i mean you can find everything uh linked from my twitter you know at scott elker or the wolf of allstreets.io
but uh you know i for for a good 20 25 years i was a casual trader basically uh doing it was something that i did on the side i literally bought my first stop when i was 13 years old disney and caterpillar both good both good trades since i'm still holding um and uh and you know was superficially sort of interested throughout the years when i was in school i went to a school that was very heavy uh for finance the university of pennsylvania and so it was hard not to at least catch the trading and finance bug a bit but i you know i was a professional dj and music producer for about 20 years i decided not to use that ivy league education at all basically um much to the dismay of my parents i'm sure but uh and you know once i really got more serious about it in the mid 2000s teens and found crypto that that was it you know so i spent the last five or six years basically doing it full-time a few years before that i had already kind of started and from there you know i had this like music following on twitter and i alienated them immediately and started talking about this crazy magic internet money um and then so i went from like it was funny i literally like cut my fan base in half on twitter you see this big number now but it was like 40 000 immediately to 20 000 when i stopped talking about music and then for whatever reason sort of built from there you know i felt like twitter was too short for them for me so i started a free newsletter i felt like that wasn't enough so i started a podcast you know felt like that wasn't enough so i started live streaming every day and it just has been this sort of like domino effect effective non-stop crypto all the time so has um you know music still obviously an important part of your life i would think and um have you found that crypto has taken away from it or it's just you it's kind of added on to it because the music's still there you know how does it take away taking away from it take it away from it man like i i i don't know i'm the kind of person it's it's funny you know i have a friend micah johnson who's an nft artist and he used to play uh professional baseball you know he has aku is his sort of nft thing and we we always joke about this because he since the day he retired playing baseball he says he's never picked up a glove like he spent his entire life playing baseball professional baseball player retired and has never picked up a glove i have not touched my turntables right back there in three and a half years i one time i picked him up and uh dj'd my my uh mother-in-law's 70th birthday party which is something i wouldn't have ever done when i was an actual dj anyways and that's literally it so wow i i don't know i'm the kind of person who once i go deep down a rabbit hole i'm pretty far and that's i get uh all consumed i guess uh but i still listen to music all day every day i just haven't whatever but i am in the process because i recognize this of building a new music studio uh which is happening and we'll be done about four months um like a full-on build and so i do intend to sort of transition back into it at least for my uh mental health you know i think that's really exciting um you know you you've i see how you approach things and you take them seriously you've become really good at this so i can only assume you were also quite adept you know and when you have a skill that you polish for a number of years then you kind of put it on the shelf it's a little bit weird right so i think that's great i'm excited you're able to um you know dive back into that and i know i see from your feed your kids are into music i see you they play piano and all that good stuff is that right i mean we just kind of dick around on everything you know how it is like the stuff is around so if kids see it they're gonna mess around on it so both of them like to beat on the piano and every once in a while will turn on like ableton and they'll push some buttons and and whatever so yeah but uh they're just getting to an age now i think where we can start to actually push a little you know harder and see what they're more interested in there's this i covered obviously put a huge damper on a lot of it during you know the years when they would have kind of found passions and everything just shut down but uh that's obviously sort of slowing so it's getting better there's this app called like simply piano on the ipad and you know i've been playing that with my daughter and you know i'm learning chords and i'm like man this is hard you know and um i can imagine you'd have to practice that stuff every day many hours and uh so but it's fun just like this just like this is this yeah let's get this going scotty let's uh i'm gonna bring you up i'd love for you to set the table for us how we got here maybe over the last two months and um what you think is going on i'll drop you right up there and uh let's see what you got sure so uh i'll be the first to say that like many people i am uh guilty of the unforgivable crime of being too bullish near the top um you know i definitely was looking at 69k thinking we were going to get one of those monster jesus candles like straight to 100 because things looked so crazy and there were reasonable voices like you who are saying that things like that might not happen you know um and i think it's important also to very distinctly separate the two lenses through which i view everything in finance in markets right and that's the investor lens and the trader lens right so through the investing lens don't care at all right i missed it as a trader that's true but uh from the investing length it doesn't matter to me at all in fact peter brandt once came on my show and he said something really wise he said i said to my i say to my kids buy the best company stock and hope and pray that it drops 50 so you can buy some more hmm right so so if you look at this through a investing lens i think you see a great opportunity with you know 10 years away in mind and not 10 days away in mind right so it doesn't bother me that we've seen this price and i like to look back you know when i see it and i miss right you obviously want to look back and see see what you missed but this time i think is less dramatic than what we saw in may and it's it's amazing how fast people forget what happened only months ago the bullishness just like erases all of the bad feelings it's like having an ex-girlfriend who you really hate but then like a year later you start to remember the one good thing that was nice about her then you get back with her and you realize that you actually hated her the entire time kind of like that you know and so we went from 60 plus to 30 in 10 days last may right 10 days yeah 10 days this was a long sustained and we didn't go quite as deep right and in fact we're making a higher low right now potentially if you look at it that way right yeah um and at that time we had legitimate they they felt legitimate not to me but to many people legitimate concerns at the time right you had elon musk whatever i think that's laughable but china ban and china mining going offline was a legitimate threat to the entire like core of bitcoin right like hash rate dropping 50 percent is the network going to accommodate at that what does it mean when most of the volume goes offline outside of hash rate right talking about like is if if you're gonna drop and china can't buy where's our demand right right so like very legitimate concerns and then of course everyone jumping on the energy battle right we all knew that that was sort of hyperbolic but it seemed very real at the time people bitcoin uses more energy than the country of argentina et cetera et cetera right so we had like this like four-pronged flood attack that made for sort of a reasonable fundamental underpinning what do we have this time the fed is that it and and and the only thing that we have against us right now is maybe a temporary correlation with other markets that people think are weak which is all underpinned by the fed and money printing and when you zoom out and think about the fundamental purpose of bitcoin crypto in general but of bitcoin it's to fade that [ __ ] anyways right right so i just think that this is like and i said this and i was saying this at the dead bottom i'm not saying it is the bottom but for now it's the bottom but if anyone who was following me a week ago when this was bottoming i was literally out over my skis saying that i was buying everything in sight and that the fact that when i would post something even remotely bullish people would say we have to go down 100 you're insane yes can not be the bottom means there's a very like if you can't even imagine that the idea that it's a bottom yes okay yes like you're you're so far gone and your emotional bias right so i just think that we got overextended on the sell-off right so maybe this is just a bounce maybe like i would say that once again we're at a fundamentally strong resistance and you're going to see people getting extremely bullish right what's that resistance scott what's that resistance 42 42. i mean look let me find a i could just draw it on this chart i'm sure but like but we've been at 42 with huge variation above or below for 13 months yeah yeah i mean it's a big zone it's a big we topped we topped there like january this week of january 4th in 2021 yeah and that's where we are sitting right now low february right and i mean if you like you could take every line off this chart and just look at 42 and that's been the support and the resistance effectively that zone i don't talk in finite numbers right but that zone has been the top and bottom of every move in my opinion thus far so of course we're going to get super bullish just like we did right up here when price was topping at 53 and i literally was like sending tweets aggressively making fun of anyone who was getting super bullish at resistance now i think actually the odds are we pushed through this time yeah interesting interesting and to say every single time like that we're gonna die at resistance well then price can never go up right there has to be a point where people get bullish at resistance and mark it by through that resistance the only way it can happen yeah right but my belief is that unless you truly fear the fed which is a dog and pony show of epic proportions that is completely fake and contrived anyways so screw that if you really believe that they're not going to stop money printing then i've got a apartment to sell you on the moon right and they're not they may slow it slightly for a little while and then resume right before the election because if they stop money printing right now everybody who's in office loses their job and that's not how this works um and so if you believe that you know that we are going to come out of this then you should think that there's a good chance that we have bottoms right i've never i'm you have more balls than me calling tops and bottoms oh please i just call areas you know but like 32 000 from 69 yeah very very reasonable normal bit retrace for bitcoin but how do we know so i mean that's great and by the way great commentary uh and i have all these follow-up questions but how do we know that's you know how do we know we don't need 80 scott right isn't that what everyone knows we do 80 how do we know you know we know right we have to know to know we could listen i talked to uh sven henrich the other day you know northman trader i don't know if he's yeah guys it's [ __ ] amazing yeah and he's you know just became a bitcoiner and he's like i'm starting to nibble now but he's like how much will people nibble if we're at seven thousand and it's done in ninety percent drop sixty died i was like yeah oh my god please listen anything's possible and i'm not saying we don't need a bigger retrace i'm just saying that people are funny right you got a chart and so you i i only use a chart as a trader right so and i would say that i trade with 15 to 20 of my capital so 15 to 20 of my opinion is based on the chart right the other 75 80 85 of my opinion is based on sort of just common sense and my funder fundamental like rational opinion it's not on chain metrics or earnings it's literally common sense right common sense to me says uh we just saw 25 billion dollars in vc flow into crypto last year more than the three combined years before we've already almost seen that much in february of this year there is insane amount of money flowing into space and the worse [ __ ] gets globally even if bitcoin retraces with it at first it will likely detach if we're bitcoin believers it will likely detach and become more bullish the other thing people forget and love to somehow just ignore that people love to say you know oh everything crashed march 2020 there was this crazy correlation well first of all bitcoin crashed march 12th and the stock market crashed march 23rd so you'd have to believe that bitcoin leads the stock market so let's okay let's stop right it's a two less than a trillion dollar market cap at the time it was way less i mean it was like a less than a quarter of a trillion at that time right price was trading at six thousand dollars and what it and and people love to say oh they're correlated and the stock market best run ever doubled bitcoin went up 17 times from there right went from 38 to 69 right so if you're going to talk about them both being risked off at the same time what happens when the world inevitably goes risk on bitcoin crypto becomes the best trade on the planet right and it it and it exceeds what you can get in other markets by many multiples so if it goes down to 15 and you're buying it 40 but the end game of that is 150 you shouldn't care at all right you literally shouldn't care at all yes you can get a better entry and listen you and i have discussed this right like you you're of the mind like you know michael saylor microstrategy should be looking for better entries and that 15 20 of my mind agrees but yeah if he doesn't have that mind at all and he's 100 percent investor his goal is going to be this shit's going up i'm buying as much as i can whenever i have the cash right and so he's is not a trader he's an investor and i think that goes back to that sort of two lens uh view but let me ask you about 80 well so but is that a is there a fine line between a trader and investor or is it you know is it a gradient um i don't think it's fine it gets i think they're actually leaps and bounds apart and i'll tell you why okay because the people historically are parents boomers the generations before them the people who have made generational wealth in markets historically have probably never heard of technical analysis or probably do not even know that charts exist they've simply taken whatever money they had that they weren't gonna take back out to pay for something put it into any market and let inflation carry them to the promised land right invest in hard assets don't touch that money give it enough time to grow that doesn't work very well with the trader get rich quick mentality but i think that most people and michael saylor's in his 50s right and i think you know a lot of people who have been business really just want to get their money into hard assets and not touch it right it's the stress thing right you want to you want to put money somewhere you don't have to babysit right yeah exactly and listen the the only invest money you have to lose [ __ ] is like the dumbest most misleading and almost like insulting comment that we all make because nobody can afford to lose all their money right but but there's some truth in the fact that i i would prefer to say only invest money that you can afford not to touch for a while right i think is almost better is let's dive into that because that's interesting to me um is it also maybe an amount that you can hopefully emotionally detach from right because that's a lot of what it comes down to ideally it's an amount maybe that you can't afford to lose but then maybe you won't sweat and then maybe you can play it properly i think yeah i think overexposure is probably the number one reason that people make bad emotional decisions right when when you see like the analysts that are staring at one hour charts and freaking out about the like macro implications of a small move that happened in an hour you know that they're overexposed or over analyzing right right and listen everybody has their own time frame so if you're trading an hourly chart you should be panicking about what might happen in the next 12 hours but you can't extrapolate that to have meaning for the next 12 years right um and so i think that it's just it comes with the territory you and i both love poker as well right i know oh yeah i also talked about this so like you know doyle brunson super system one of the famous things he talks about is not talking about you're not thinking about your chips as money but thinking of them as units that's a big one yes so mentally detaching from the amount of money that you're betting so that you can make the proper decision based on the pot odds of what you're doing and based on the opponent that you're playing right and so you can't do that if um your rent is on the line that's a great point that's such an important point that people ignore and you're right like if you if you need your money to pay bills i mean pull it out and pay the bills you can't trade with that stuff and um you know there's times when you should average down even though it's you know a dicey proposition but there's times when you should buy that really deep fear you know like if if bitcoin who knows what happens tomorrow but if it hits that weekly you know ma200 you know like in the next week you have to buy that even it doesn't matter how bad it looks at the time like you you got to be buying there uh would you kind of agree with that is that 20 like uh yeah that's 200 weekly 200 200 sorry it's like 20 000 right like the weekly 200 it's probably around right here yeah the weekly 20 yeah oh my god you buy that so and like over time yeah that's also that's also like if you get that weekly 200 right there that is the untested 2017 highs um so right so there's never tested ever never tested there's people who are watching this video who want to know if we should they're like hey chad's chad's and melcher should be by here you know because they want to be long right and because they feel like they missed it but if it drops to 20k they'll be scared but that's when they should be jamming it you know it's oh come on i'm buying it 53 it's 53 i can't buy it's going to 42. it's 42. i can't buy this it's got to go to 28 if it misses 28 it's going to 20 you never buy right and you know when they buy 70 000. that's 70 000. so how do you deal with that it breaks resistance i just i i i plug my nose and i buy and you guys have seen it and i put it out there publicly and i take and i take it on the chin for it every single time for being an idiot i i bought bitcoin at 53. yeah because that was support i bought bitcoin at 42. yeah you know like
and so it broke those supports oh well it'll go back up right but i have the patience and i'm only doing it with the amount of money that it doesn't matter you know that's huddle if you were trading though at 42 you would your stop-loss would have been like whatever like 41 or 40. so yeah it would be like would have been like 41-41-4 or something 3-1-4 exactly but but i was trading so like uh i i've taken four leveraged trades uh since 69 000. okay in a massive downtrend i'm not saying that this is smart but i don't like shorting bitcoin just something i generally don't want to do and so they've all been longs and i had one small loss and one you know slight win and two massive wins right because both of them were at the point where we were at support it hit oversold or something with bullish divergence yeah i got the immediate bounce that i was looking for which is the way i trade i moved my stops way into profit and so like when it dropped i made my money and i was i was wrong right so you don't need to be wrong or right you need to be profitable yeah right so yes and people are like and then so people see oh my god he longed and then they come back a week later and they see it's lower and lower and like you're an idiot i made like six months i know uh my life on that one trade so am i an idiot okay no so as a trader it's all about how you play it regardless of if you catch it right or not and as an investor okay well yeah i'm holding the bag on bitcoin that i bought at 53 000 but my cost basis on bitcoin is under 10 000. so do you think i'm worried no right so how aggressively on your trades are you moving that stop loss into profit um you know what i mean generally that's a tough question but generally so i usually i usually like it's funny i don't practice what i preach right so i preach to people that you should have a exact plan when you enter a trade right right of course right and i say you know i do believe you should have your stop-loss 100 defined right oh yeah of course because you can't define your risk and you can't take a position size unless you know where you're wrong right so but then if i know if it's an aggressive downtrend and i'm catching knives which is what i'm doing i'm aware that i'm catching knives right right so like the odds are i did not catch the bottom of a macro move that's taking months right so rationally i'm aware of that so the minute like i get uh i hit the first resistance i'm taking some off the table and then generally moving my stop into profit so it's a taking profit and a moving stops into profit sort of situation um and so uh yeah and so it becomes a really mixed bag on the way that i sell um you know because the dependent like my plan is dependent on what happens after i enter in those cases right i mean if it if it only balances a little bit and then kind of hang sideways no i'm not going to move my stops into profit i'm going to sit there with my original plan because maybe it's going to come right back down to my entry and then rock it and i'm going to get stopped out i'll tell you for now i was in long from almost the bottom here 30 34 3 or something when we confirmed that last major bullish divergence oversold down there yeah so it bounced up i don't know 38 something like that i sold it i sold a nice portion of it and i moved my stops up to just under 37. right and then i could stop it out it went down to 35 eight right 35 7. i had the same trade i had the same trade man i had similar yeah i could have theoretically still been long right now from the bottom right leverage right yeah and so but i can't really beat myself up forever that because yeah just as easily it could have gone 35 8 34 33 31 and then i would have erased any of the profit i took loss right so i don't know i i definitely if i'm trading it's about minimizing the loss and taking what's on the table in front of me and not starting to get greedy i really try not to do that so yeah maybe maybe i missed the generational bottom and was long and i'm going to be feeling like [ __ ] when it's at 100. but i'll also be paying if it gets to 100
from there the amount of fees i would have paid to be long during that time and all the consolidation we'll see would have been worth it anyways right i mean for most of that time i was paying to be long so it becomes a bit a bit annoying i think that's great advice and good kind of risk management um what do you think about altair scott i mean i mean uh you know how do we approach it you know the market's been i think it's been a really tough market for alts yeah you know i've been saying it for months yeah i i've had a pretty strong opinion on it for months um which is that okay i like to play the probability so like that's hard when you're tweeting or telling people things because they might read just one thing and think that that's your overall opinion you need to take everyone's opinion in the context of the way they think alts could do exceptionally well but i would say that probabilistically statistically the odds are that they will not do relatively well compared to bitcoin or at least i was saying that on the way down because these are the so if you right we know how it goes right bitcoin dominance your worst case scenario is bitcoin dominance dropping and everything's dropping bitcoin dominance rising while the price of bitcoin drops oh bitcoin is dominating or but the right but the peg is dropping and your alts you know bitcoin goes down 10 you're all dropped 30 right that's we've seen a lot of that yeah then there's when bitcoin dominance is you have you know all the combinations right i don't need to walk through them but but the gist being that if bitcoin rips up from here or had ripped up from the bottom which it kind of did that's generally people fomo into bitcoin bitcoin dominance rises your alts do okay against usd but secretly are getting absolutely raped against bitcoin and you're just afraid to flip flip over and see the bitcoin balance your portfolio right so you're better off in bitcoin than alts why do more work than you need if bitcoin absolutely drops and dumps you see the same situation people sell their alts to get out of them and they perform even worse and generally bitcoin sideways is good for alts but the caveat is you want sideways consolidation after you're going up yeah sideways at the bottom where people think it's going to dump so that people get confused like bitcoin sideways it's chopping sideways but when there's fear in the market people are not rushing to buy the riskier asset right right right and so i think that the the scenario for alts to outperform bitcoin and that's all i care about i don't care about doing well i care about them doing better than bitcoin and by the way that makes it harder than trading any other market you trade stocks against dollars and you're fine you're not also trying to outperform amazon right right and so and so it makes it very difficult there's a very rare situation so in general i think that if bitcoin is volatile you want to be careful and just i'm not saying like sell all your alts off i'm just saying like if you're trying to trade them it's going to be really hard in fact i mean i very very publicly bought a lot of solana recently while they were getting flooded to death i love that thank you yeah please tell me how it's going to zero please yeah um and uh you know but i started at 116 oops okay bro broke right through but i more than doubled down at 82 so my cost basis is sub 100 and it's back at like 1 15 today it took me all of a week it took but took all of a week for people who were calling me a [ __ ] sure right so um but that's but i want to own solana for a long time like i've i i want to own layer ones because i don't know which one is going to win so i want some exposure to all of them because i think that something will win that's an investment strategy right so i didn't put a stop loss on that i started a position knowing i was willing to average down that's interesting those are some concepts there um like price drops as a result of news or fud are often great opportunities and i think you kind of you um sense to that so i think that's a good point and you also kind of for the viewers you demonstrated scaling into a position right you're never going to be able to nail that exact bottom so you decided to break up your entry into three or four or five pieces and you were able to get an even better position now uh with it turned around are you not to betray too much but are you in profit or are you still um you know is your cost basis where it was or have you moved it up you know your stop-loss no i'm not i i have no intention of selling solana anytime for the next few years it was one of the and admittedly there's there's two assets in the last like year or two that i felt like i sort of missed okay one of them was solana it was one of those things where it like kept going higher and i was sort of like casually waiting to see a dip and it just never happened and it kept going and it just never stopped right and so i missed it i just didn't own any solana so i when it was at 260 i was like there's going to be a massive retrace here i'm going to start eventually and i waited till 116 from the top at 260. so yeah it dipped to what it'd go to 80 you know right here but i but these were my two targets i've had these lines on my charts i've shared them a million times and at 80 bucks we were massively oversold with bullish divergence on the yeah right so yeah thank you that you we all know that i love that so like my cost basis is just under 100 because i bought more at 82 than 116. so right yeah and this can drop more and i i have bids at 58. right so listen but if i had been trading this and i had bought this which is what i did on the daily and it rasted right through i would have stopped out that day yep big time 109. yeah i mean that's an interesting chart um it could bounce and it's one of those where you say hey that was kind of an obvious bottom um but it clearly has rallied you know right to the underside there of that you know that level and to the descending you know resistance as well so um it's good you have a plan you know you're not saying hey it's the bottom and and you know because if it goes lower you won't be shocked and then you'll be able to play it properly i think that's good in fact it like i kind of want it to go lower so i can fill an entire position because right now it's not the full position that i intended to what peter said you're trying to follow the brand device right yeah but so but that's that's the beauty of even with trading you know depending on your risk appetite and stuff the beauty with scaling in and out of things is every single time like okay you buy a little bit and then it skyrockets and you miss the rest of your bids but at least you've got some skin in the game you caught some you can feel pretty good if you're selling and you sell it resistance and it breaks through and it goes to the next one sell a little more each time you sell you're reducing the stress of all of your future decisions and your and every time you have less money on the table the easier it is to hold it longer and hit those upper targets i think the biggest problem for people and nobody wants to admit this is that everybody like compares their performance to the best case scenario as if they would as if they would have been perfect right yeah so like they don't want to scale out that's where you get the greed thing right you're like well it's resistance but it's going to go higher so why would i sell some here but then right if it doesn't right you may be a genius you may not but like i said it reduces the stress but then say you scale out all the way to the top then you go god damn i could have like sold everything right at the top i hate it i hated lost so much money that's right right like the trade of your life and your your like life view is that you've like lost some opportunity cost right and it's just not the case and so it's the same i love to like do this thought exercise with people and say so okay let's say that you like you know you started with one dollar and you made a hundred thousand dollars in crypto amazing right and so that hundred thousand dollars goes up to a million okay so let's say january 1st 2021 you had 100 thousand dollars january 1st 2022 you had a million dollars right you did another 10x your portfolio gets destroyed like mine in the last two months yeah right and now you have four hundred thousand dollars did you make money or did you lose it and inevitably people go i lost six hundred thousand dollars yeah okay yeah they go i lost six hundred thousand dollars and that is that and that is based on the thinking that you would have been perfect and sold literally everything you had you wouldn't even have the liquidity let's be honest but you would have sold everything you had at the dead top right and so your portfolio like a chart honestly i think you should be happy with higher lows isn't that true isn't that a great point is that's a really a great point right if you're looking at that yeah yeah so what um you know we'll wrap things up pretty quickly it's it's the weekend and you've been unbelievably gracious with your time it was like a last minute thing and you're like hey man no problem i'll come so thank you um you know you're definitely wealth of knowledge so if you're you know i'm not in bitcoin i'm not in crypto but i really want to get into it you know how should i approach it here should i just all cost average you'd probably say yeah of course dca but let's say i want to try to make a trade um what should i watch out for how will i know bulls have regained momentum here in the short term uh what do you think okay well i mean if they know how to look at a chart which i probably don't i know you hate descending uh lines right um and and i don't blame you for me a descending line is a signal that things could be reversing but it's not a tradable entry or exit so that's how i like to view it so like in this case right if we break this line i'd be looking for a dip back to 42 as the buy not the break of that line because we inevitably know that it breaks that line and then dips all the way back down and takes you out you get destroyed right but for me right now listen like like how for me breaking 53 here on this candle this was the signal that we were going to go way up from the macro lower high from the weekly equilibrium so we broke we broke that lower high right and so sort of violated bear market structure became bull market structure yeah well for me look we had you know i mean we can go back god knows how long it doesn't even matter but look low high higher low higher high whatever right so from here we have this sort of bull market structure right weekly 50 well that's violated when we lose 42 right because this was a lower low so if we can get back excuse me 39.6 if you're using wicks right so now we're above that so that's a really good sign to me because we're now in violation of this kind of we had made the higher low and we broke it now we're above it if we flip 42 here so i think like if you're new right here you're certainly [ __ ] not trading buying this at 41.6 yeah it's
tough right unless you have a 100x leverage with a 42 target and a 7.4 right right but you're not but you're looking for this like you know what i mean like yeah this is your entry in my opinion you know if if if you're not a breakout trader if you if you caught 39.6 like if you caught 39.6 on the break great right maybe and honestly maybe so if this does get rejected by the way then you're still bullish then i'd be looking for this trade right so is that a 46k rejection or what i mean i see 46 is a big level too because that was the support that you know i have it somewhere but like uh i don't know if i have that chart open on here but i have yeah i had one that i posted on twitter earlier today which has the daily levels and to me it was like 39 42 yes 45 five yes exactly 52 or 53 and then i mean if we're above 53 we should be at 100.
let me get you on the record here ethereum you see eth ptc and you know what i talk about on twitter and bitcoin live is the idea that um you know bitcoin bulls want that chart eth btc to be going down right because when ethereum's outperforming bitcoin it's not bitcoin time right what are your thoughts on that eth btc and maybe eth real quick and we'll wrap up on that so i mean eat usd right here kind of looks better than bitcoin frankly like if you're looking on the usd chart because this this would sort of be the equivalent to the level and we're above it already you know so maybe holding three grand is a big deal i think you know 29 28 but i think that's a big deal but maybe then we head to 33 something now listen eat btc another one you zoom out ethereum has been smashing bitcoin since 2019 right annihilating it right and so i i don't think that trend is changing anytime soon right and if you and if you're trading the diagonal well that didn't break out until you know almost a year ago okay now listen but i'll be honest this is what i had yeah yeah right right and so i i i expected that we had sort of uh so yeah listen technical analysis and ain't always science you know so i had sort of this yeah i can't get it now then the height of it yeah yeah and so like obviously you pull that here and oh yeah right you're on a long chart you're out you're up but at new highs that didn't happen but i also said like i saw this rejection here so i thought we would stop back here on a retest of that and i was wrong it's gone deeper so now to me we have sort of this ascending channel so i don't know okay like in general i believe that ethereum will outperform bitcoin uh for a very long time if i was investing i think that that i think that bitcoin is the better more important investment i think it has a better narrative the hedge against inflation i think that that's the one that will stick but i mean you know listen if it ain't broke don't try to fix it and it's been two and a half years of ethereum outperforming bitcoin and so i think that you know i think what we'll see is this sort of rocky road bitcoin if let's say that we're back in a bull market right i'm not saying that but let's suppose we're back in the bull market yeah bitcoin rips this kind of trades sideways or dips a little more but then when bitcoin consolidates ethereum's next move is bigger than bitcoin's move was yeah right right so when bitcoin consolidates ethereum outperforms its bull runs more than bitcoins relative to bitcoin's bull right so you kind of they both do well but this one maybe does 10 better you know something like that consistently that's sort of how i see it i think there's a lot of catalysts for ethereum you know scott if you're dca and why aren't you and maybe you are but why don't you and i think about this for myself you know i most i mostly just just huddled bitcoin and ethereum and i wonder if i should be doing more ethereum than bitcoin because i'm looking at a chart like you're showing me that shows that out performance over time why are you not accumulating more ethereum okay i i literally so so in very small amounts i literally buy ethereum every single day okay so i i manually like weekly buy small amounts of bitcoin and i go in huge on dips right when i have dry powder i i try to like time bitcoin a little more yeah ethereum i use a platform called roundly x which like is if you know acorns like i've heard of acorns which takes rounds or whatever yeah rounds up so you buy 90 cents of something and then it rounds up to a dollar and buys 10 stock right 10 cents of stock so i use round the x with a 10x multiplier so it rounds up everything and then multiplies it by 10 in conjunction with voyager so every time it hits like 10 20 50 bucks so like i'm buying like 40 50 bucks of ethereum a day just like massively in the background okay and then earning interest on it on voyager where it automatically buys it oh my god that's outperformed almost anything i've been doing it for years what are we talking about here it's done really i'm have to look into that huh so you want to hold your eth on voyager and you get like six five or six percent interest on your ethereum which is it's like it it's equivalent or outperformed staking in the eve 2.0 contract and it's liquid right you can you can get it out anytime soon it's like a verizon yield it's like the same yield as verizon but it actually goes up and i'm starting to feel and now i'm starting to feel like i also need to be dollar cost averaging into solana avex uh i think no that's the bigger competitive layer layer give us a couple more a couple other ones in that in that tier that you might be listening i'm boring right so like uh as much as like uh you know i i love i love myself some [ __ ] coins right and i and i love trading that stuff but i try not to talk about it too much at this point because i just my following is too big uh but like i think that you should my my general thesis now and i love that uh fidelity just put out the report bitcoin first and made this sort of like very obvious to me but surprising to many premise that you should have bitcoin and everything else right i've been saying for a long time i think cryptocurrency is a massive misnomer and we need to eliminate that right because most of them are not currencies maybe assets right digital assets and then you have to include mp3s right so crypto assets um right right and so i think that there's bitcoin which has solidified itself as digital gold store value whether it's performed as one or not hedge and then there's kind of everything else which are like tech investments so there's like bitcoin which is like buying a better version of gold okay and then all of these other ones which are like investing in the stock market like buying amazon google apple facebook meta whatever the [ __ ] it's called at this point right yeah right um and so which i i literally likes plugged my entire face and almost puked and bought you bought some facebook stock oh i got calls brother i got calls it's a good spot weekly 200 right it's the same thing i said weekly 200 of a race too much two years of price action yeah come on yeah buy the blood so um and so like you know you have this sort of other basket and so in my mind you have ethereum right which you have to have exposure to and then if you're gonna go a little bit down the risk chain i don't think ethereum owns the entire layer one world of d5 nft's metaverse whatever the hell else game game phi that we come up with and so i believe my thesis is that we'll live in a multi-chain world they'll be interoperable so you want to be invested in the multiple chains at least to some degree like small exposure and anything eventually that makes them inopera interoperable or faster right so to me like people love cardano that's a good one for if anyone believes in it i don't but like but it is a layer one that has a lot of hype but luna solana uh avax elrond one near like choose choose whichever ones you like get three or four of them right okay because one of them will become the nft chain one will become the gaming chain one will become the memory chain and then the next if you want to go one step further start looking at things that make those chains actually scale and faster because if we're being honest with ourselves none of them are remotely scalable for mainstream adoption right supposed to be the fastest whatever i love it but look how many times it fails right so uh polygon right matic uh anything zk roll ups or or you know that helps uh make those things faster like you know metis dao if you if you like that one polygon horizon is both interoperability and zk snark so like i like to touch on all of these atom of course cosmos right the interoperability dot yep kind of a layer zero so yeah i have exposure to all of them wow they're not like they're all like a percent of my of my portfolio or less but like yeah one of them is going to 100x i love it that was really good so if the rest go to zero fine yep that's you know i i read um in one of those textbooks something about holding a a diversified basket of risky assets and that's what that is right one of them is gonna just yeah 20 30 100 x yeah right that's not diversifying for anyone who wants to talk about diversity because they will all die together if this time right so so there's like two funny schools of thought right there's the like don't put your eggs in one basket like the famous statement right which is for diversifying your wealth own a little bit of everything if one thing crashes but they all have systemic risk if you're buying a bunch of all coins so what i prefer to say is put all your eggs in which is buff it i think put all your eggs in one basket and watch that basket really carefully yeah and so and and i think that that's sort of an important way you just can't have everything like literally every penny and you see bitcoin like could drop a ten thousand and every one of those will go down eighty percent and uh you know so it's all about uh portfolio structure and sort of how you how you approach it but listen diverse like mark yusuko said this to me he said listen people say to diversify but uh that's for people who are already rich right yes you can get rich by diversifying right right you get rich by by by being like it's super hyper focused on one thing and being right right yeah and so diversifying is for for rich people and that's funny because also storing value is for rich people right we talk about bitcoin as a store of value but you gotta have value to store before that matter you know the whole market's driven and we'll wrap up here and again thank you for your time but the whole market's driven a lot of it's driven by people who want to be rich and people don't have a lot of money and they want to buy the next bitcoin they want to be able to diversify they want to be able to do all those things and um we are but we're all in the same pool too which is interesting you know um so we see all those market participants and um it's a really interesting ecosystem so i think that the advice you've given is great man i love i love having you on here i love listening to what you have to say you were talking about like fruit roll-ups and stuff i've never heard of that before so but i have my nose in the chart and so it's it's refreshing to hear from other people um and all that so the chat room loves you and and was just fantastic is anything you want to finish up with to say to people and uh you know let's hear from you what you got ah that that's that's really it man i think that uh you just need to shift your view like you just said like everybody wants to find the next bitcoin but like you probably won't you probably won't right so just don't don't enter with the expectation that like you're gonna get rich really quick yeah just enter with the expectation that you might get rich really really slow and uh because i think you will if you if you if you don't uh be a degenerate and trade it away you know and i think that just trading is kind of just not for most people right all i can say is that like yeah and just don't feed into the like emotional rollercoaster that is this community it's a great amazing community but no one of us is particularly uh more clairvoyant than the other you know we're all just guys we're all just guys out here trying to like share our best educated guess at what's happening based on the information that we have and at the end of the day you need to be accountable for what information you choose to absorb and which information you choose to throw away but the easiest way to handle this is if you believe crypto's gonna go up just buy some and wait um that's it i think that's great advice to to wrap it up with you know be careful with the hero hero worship and learn to be reliant on yourself and um you know you can listen to what other people say but take note of it and really come to your own conclusions and you know kind of stand or fall really on your own two feet uh man i love it i love you i hope you're doing well and um you're the only person i'm showing up for on a saturday ah well that does mean a lot so thank you so much all right all right well thank you all right that is the man himself he literally was like sure i'll rearrange my schedule and come and talk to you it is scott melker on twitter that's scott mueller wolfe of all streets he'll be at a million followers soon which is awesome he deserves it he's got his newsletter he's got um he's on youtube as well check out everything he does you'll see all those links um on his twitter feed i am big let's do a little tiny bit of bitcoin i'll wrap it up so um what do we think and by the way thank you to each and every every one of you for coming the feedback has been great in the chat room uh it's been it's been an environment where it's hard to be um excited as a bull because you know it's just the mean reversions we know what we're doing we're bouncing to resistance we're bouncing to resistance and for my in my view we have the first suggestion that we may be building some bull momentum because we have the ema 34 we're closing above it if we can maintain above 40k you know first of all if you wanted to go long you could have just gone along at 40k you want to think about those big psychological levels you know anytime you have a trade you want to ask yourself how can i structure the trade to make money and not lose too much right you want that asymmetric risk so we're doing all this stuff below 40k you can just say listen if i go if it gets above 40k i'm going long and then no matter what happens that's my stop-loss maybe at 39.7 or 39.8 just below it not to say a 200 stop loss as long as you have at least 600 or three to one right you know a profit target you're doing well at the astrometric so asymmetric risk to reward you know so we passed 40k if you wanted to go along you could have very easily done that that's a big psychological level if the chart continues to hold 40k we're all set it's just going to build a base and push higher um you know both would love to see um you know head and shoulders here and inverted head and shoulders and if they do that it would invalidate which means if we break back below 40 that would be a sell signal and if it confirms you know up above maybe that 44k range would confirm that um you want to not focus too much on patterns though it will confuse you and you'll be trying to is it a cup and handle is it a spoon and a fork is it a rising diagonal wedge diamond you know whatever no horizontal levels all right big level here underside of support that's now broken any bounce is going to reject there most likely all right 40k you want to get above above
2022-02-08 23:09
