[程曉農專訪]美國終於醒了?從川普到拜登 川普遺產 拜登籌碼 兩任總統中國政策! 210915

[程曉農專訪]美國終於醒了?從川普到拜登 川普遺產 拜登籌碼 兩任總統中國政策! 210915

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Hello everyone and welcome to the forefront of political and economic Uncensored see China host Zhang Honglin I thank you for watching our show again in the last relationship I think the United States is constantly warming up it was said that the CCP's Wolf began to attack United States is prepared to react oh Now, it seems China's attitude is very tough course related to US officials before and after Ren Guoan Duru Song of whether or Hiroaki they were also written about the United States for this so-called China must make these changes in the United States have some of the alert must also have some anti system action I think today we should be able to take this program to explore the United States and even in China that we are very happy to invite Chinese economists in the latest situation in the future some of the latest diplomatic wrangling is also uS-based scholar Dr. Cheng Xiaonong to help us profile your uS-warming about this constantly in recent diplomatic moves in the end after each start some kind of change we just turn into Cheng Cheng teacher teacher hello hello Moderator Okay, audience friends hello everyone I wanted to drive a teacher to help us do Some of the many analytical Thank you very much teacher to another part back to today's topic is actually these wrestling in the United States during the period of this caused a lot of some of the concerns the United States has just mentioned those in which the national security team as the former US deputy national security adviser Hiroaki US magazine also wrote part of his course, which is mentioned in the past that keep the wolf comes to US policy, he said it seems to be a bit "Bolianna" style of this Leguanzhuyi this is certainly an American novelist wrote a novel so some people say that the United States has in the end how many such small type that Leguanzhuyi Anna politicians and even American companies but also because it comes like this and make some changes how you see it your way the teacher Hiroaki just host it comes to this is the former deputy national security adviser to former US president this Trump's his English name is Matt Pottinger he was recently in the United States, "Foreign Affairs magazine," No. 9 October last month issued a articles then he is a reflection of a US-China relationships are more candid profound a reflection of his title is Beijing's American hustle, how Chinese Grand strategy exploits US Power Chinese is "Beijing US hustle and bustle: how China's grand strategy exploits of American power "Hiroaki is represented said that while many Americans are slow to realize Beijing's hostility to Washington long before the 2016 US presidential election Trump began even before Xi Jinping came to power in 2012 began in power since 1949 the ruling Chinese Communist Party has been seen as hostile to US forces in the Cold War ended 30 years ago, so when the Chinese leaders to the United States from an elevated among the many opposites became its principal external opponents and began quietly modify its grand strategy to seek regional and global dominance so Hiroaki Is actually a reflection of his US-China relations this point in time to push forward the old Bush era is the end of the Cold War years Hiroaki is believed that from that time say that 30 years after the United States began inside knowledge of the Chinese Communist Party's actually been there that he is not only a serious deviation George Bush Clinton small布希欧巴马 until Biden pointed out that the United States is so so Hiroaki parties are not fully aware of China's strategy in the most threatening factor in that the CCP is the United States and other free nations of the improper recognition of the CCP strategic intent to Western countries blindly trust the CCP as a weapon mentioned in particular the ambitions for the service, said Hiroaki CCP especially institutional financial and technical areas important to adhere to several US agencies years went by and in contact with the CPC to deal with it causing self-destruction mode then this model led Washington to economic cooperation and trade above all so Hiroaki come to a view that he believes the West has yet to realize that they have been accept the decades-long hostility strategic Chinese well-designed course, and that the US victory in the Cold War after which a great relationship arrogant American policy makers believe that the CCP said that he would find no way to boycott the Berlin Wall the global wave of liberalization after the collapse then follow this train of thought by the United States to help China get rich can relax on the Chinese Communist Party can make to the economy of the people and political control so relaxed so you can make the CCP's rule and the gradual diversification of the West the national standards Hiroaki think it is a miscarriage of justice that is part of the reason the CCP in order to implement this grand strategy methodological issues it adopted here Hiroaki pointed out that Beijing has long been the secret of his challenge and subvert the US-led order Ziyouzhuyi intent Beijing and the West technical cooperation Americans believe that these technologies will contribute to the democratization of China but he uses these technologies to monitor and control the Chinese people and overseas Chinese to a growing number of the world's population as the target system so the CCP is now in a culture and Western companies Investors then these companies and investors turn to toe the Communist Party's policy even manner consistent with the objectives of the CCP to lobby for his country's capital, then Hiroaki represent the past few decades inside the United States does not take into American society and businesses are being weaponized to serve the CCP's long-term agenda on agenda then this may be attributed to the naive or Boliannuo style Leguanzhuyi so that excuse already no longer believed in but Beijing still show the play to US funds and institutions for their own purposes which makes Washington need to take real action then the previous presenters have explained this Hiroaki cite this analogy has been called a Pollyanna principle on Bolianna effect on the heart is the presenter talked about school this is the American novelist Eleanor Porter he has a novel called " Pollyanna, "" Girl Bolianna "Then the host has been introduced in this role this novel so said psychology study found that the human brain at a subconscious level, sometimes tend to focus on upbeat message then this feature is that this is a Pollyanna effect this metaphor host asked how the United States can say that the number of Pollyanna much everywhere from politics to business to academia most of the US Democratic Party's fans but the current situation is slowly changing as more and more clearly the CCP against the United States the first is the tough stance hostile attitude of some of the business community quietly began to change in recent example is the United States there are some hedge fund managers from August this year clearly that rely on Chinese holdings of US companies pay attention to their stock holdings the company's stock is not a Chinese American company's stock two types of American company's stock is a hedge fund manager holdings like the United States is the kind of company it relies on the Chinese market against the Chinese market to sell things to make money these companies are stock holdings in addition to the 26 percent who rely on Chinese supplies of US companies holdings shares of these companies are part of the 17% that Wall Street fund managers, this move not only because of the recent pressure on the Chinese Communist large Internet company's response also contains not optimistic about China's economic prospects so consideration the fact that in the past few months since the Wall Street brokers who are undergoing painful to think how kind they are and if they sell customers to explain the whereabouts of decades of Chinese bond Chinese stock is now selling it back to the time of this Hiroaki the article said he believes the CCP's aggressive move represents decades of a new phase of strategic then he recalled that Deng Xiaoping's keeping a low profile this international strategy proposed by China is not a passing phase but a permanent strategic Hiroaki before the Chinese Communist Party began to challenge the United States pointed out that the Cold War when the US strategy of containment has a major designer is a US diplomat George Kennan he called the Soviet Union as early as the end of the second year of World War II in 1946 foresaw the outbreak of the Cold War to the State Department in Washington sent a long telegram to warn him this warning became known as the famous "long telegram" in the modern history of international relations it is heard say "long telegram" to know that George Kennan warned that George Kennan later returned after the US State Department to become experts in the US Cold war strategy, he pointed out that in 1948, when the Soviet Union was imposed on the United States is the political battle is a country in order to achieve its national goal to use all means at their disposal than the war that George Kennan believed the Soviet Union the Cold War is the finest and most effective Hiroaki wrote in the article said that if George Kennan were alive today he would be amazed Beijing improvements have been made on the political game manual that is set Kremlin That Hiroaki judge between China and the Chinese Communist Party has been determined to implement the Soviet Union during the Cold War that the Soviet Union to the United States to implement the kind of political confrontation during the Cold War against the United States under the US-China cold war that is no longer considered state of the CPC at the political level bilateral cooperation is contrary to the basic strategy of confrontation and diplomacy so while Hiroaki article George Kennan also said that economic policy is an important part of political confrontation CCP economic weapon into its grand strategy is not surprising that Beijing's economic goals is a priority consider domestic consumption rather than relying on foreign sales markets CCP to reduce China's dependence on imports of high-tech supply chain while allowing the world increasingly dependent on China and take advantage of the economic levers to promote China's political goals in the world so I hope here it is important to remind that the cross-strait economic and trade now because it involves the re-export of manufactured goods from China is to provide some raw materials from Taiwan to China for processing and then re-export to Western countries, especially the United States then it will make Taiwan's mainland to some extent enterprises have become the Sino-US economic leverage against so regardless of Taiwanese like it or not the CCP will catch up with you Hiroaki also talked about the Chinese Communist subversive activities against the United States he believes Beijing's grand strategy also relies hidden and invisible activity is aimed at subversion of China this mainly refers to rival the United States as well as US allies is to subvert the Chinese information warfare opponent that influence public opinion and action the most important thing is to talk about the CCP's United Front United Front Work Department of the CPC, he said there are only three times in the US State Department diplomats cadres then Chinese Communist Party's united front work will be intelligence gathering individual citizens and government officials and trying to influence them so the focus is foreign elites and their business organizations and then he said, gathering files has always been a feature of the Leninist regime but Beijing's global digital network let this collection of archives penetration Leninist tradition to a new level so the CCP has collected millions of files using foreign citizens around the world to collect these materials to influence the award of intimidation extortion flattery humiliation split conquer the CCP's United Front work and corrosion destroy foreign political system, said Hiroaki tool to weaken and divide us make our voice criticism of the media and the erosion of our elite become the CCP's customers their mouths stuffed with cash Chinese Communist Party's united front among the arsenal is relatively new to the United States the company's use of social media over the past few years inside the Chinese government is full of overt and covert propaganda on their platform and the United States through a proxy, and then a robot to amplify these promotions are increasingly focused on cosmetic narrative Beijing propaganda policy but also on the United States intensified and social tensions in his country's other goal Hiroaki actually talking about these activities can be classified as such activities generalized espionage or espionage activities also take place in Taiwan, so before I introduced in the program over from the Cold War among It can be observed that the two sides of the Cold War military confrontation will fight against espionage and political confrontation was in four major areas Hiroaki economic confrontation that that should be analyzed by the military as a diplomat than he was as a civilian military confrontation will not discuss the content and analysis are public but not necessarily Hiroaki essay was a political confrontation of the Cold War confrontation as well as economic espionage against all Hiroaki talked about then pointed out that after decades of innocence and denies Beijing's attitude toward Washington finally began to adapt to the reality of the Trump government period and harden our hearts Biden administration basically maintained the policy of his predecessor, he pointed out that the United States needs to CCP take more countermeasures that we have limited time here I will not show again a further introduction I think some teachers just mentioned that we might Some would say that this is before the Trump officials said, but in fact currently we see the White House President Biden we see his director of the White House national security Council, China affairs Duru Song in July also publishes a "long-term game: China replaced the uS grand strategy," the new book, but in fact is very similar views about it Some people say that a Duru Song argument because he is this important right-hand man Biden that is not on behalf of the book implies a bit in this book Biden again we can see that the new US strategy toward China's overall strategy this appearance of a part is not to ask the teacher to help us analyze the share I think speaks entirely on the host that is now Duru Song is currently the Chinese Officer of the White House national security team so his view is certainly in quite this represents the extent now that the White House national security team decision-making circles in the United States House of inside knowledge about uS-China relations so the views we have just the talk of Hiroaki that is Trump team basic understanding of uS-China relations so now the River S & P's team of course, left the decision-making circles so now to talk about the uS decision-making process that we want to see is Duru Song's view is that the current uS national security team perspective it Duru Song book is July 8 this year, the publication of this title is called "the Long Game: China's Grand strategy to Displace American Order "" long-term game: China replace the US grand strategy "so it Duru Song book he spent a lot of speeches and Communist Party leaders reveal documents as a basis since the Cold War on the US since the end of the Cold War the Soviet Communist Party leader Deng Xiaoping from this "low profile" to "no big change in the situation of a century." he believes that the CCP Xi Jinping 30 years been pursuing a weakening of American power gradually replace the US position of grand strategy so his point of view, of course Biden's national security team reflects to some extent the United States on how to deal with this grand strategy of Party believes Duru Song said that the essence of the US-China economic competition mainly in Asia who dominate the global order and he believes in many places but this is not all a zero-sum game he basically ruled out the unilateral compromise bargaining accommodate Or to appease China's strategy also ruled out through peaceful evolution strategy of regime change or change of CCP believes it Duru Song remaining option is to what bargaining unilateral compromises to accommodate this trick to appease the Chinese Communist regime change, what all of these peaceful evolution exclude the remaining the options that the United States and the Communist competitive strategy he believes he pointed out that the emphasis of the United States this competitive strategy and competitive Chinese Communist Party's focus is to weaken the strength of view it is better to contrast Duru Song Hiroaki view more straightforward nor as Hiroaki as more clear and unambiguous but his views and Hiroaki have a basic point is exactly the same and that is the future of Sino-US relations is essentially a zero-sum pattern of so-called zero-sum pattern that is a party if the other party is bound to benefit both sides and therefore loss so you can not actually cooperate in the Cold War then this zero and this pattern of what it means to the "Voice of America" in an interview with reporters the national Center for the interests of a researcher named Paul Heer there is to ask him that Paul Heer of this Duru Song the book's point of view to make some comments Heer said Duru Song then this book is reflected among the Chinese strategy implies an almost entirely hostile competitive strategy we objectively speaking, then do exist between China and the uS economic aspects of both confrontation and competition relations of cooperation in space but which then reduced the level of both the military armament of course you can say it is a competition but did not carry out military cooperation in terms of preparing for the possibility that military buildup then in politics the level of confrontation and espionage against both the United States and China are far from hostile relations of cooperation it is possible to say that cooperation in space is getting smaller and smaller and confined to the economic level so Duru Song in the book which pointed out that the US strategy is to focus on the CCP to weaken such a foundation Communist Party of China and the strength of American power to establish order and order he mentioned in the military since the Gulf War, China sought to develop an asymmetric weapon to challenge the United States expensive weapons program then the United States is now more and more seek the same asymmetry of force in drawing the CCP's practice of freedom of movement so that China becomes more and more complicated this Duru Song wrote, he said the United States has developed the skill of these capabilities and has been reached on the rough outline of this approach consensus which involves long-range precision strike drone aircraft attack aircraft unmanned underwater vehicle has a large missile submarine payload of high-speed strike weapons such as landmines and will be a key priority so these capabilities will not be the CCP's own anti-access / area denial China's influence and would complicate the Taiwan Strait in the East China sea or the South China sea amphibious US development of these weapons, it will be lower than the cost of those expensive military assets Duru Song and Hiroaki China rely equipment actually think the past is the same as 30 among the CCP for many years, Deng and Jiang Hu Jintao to Xi Jinping leaders have been implemented this fourth grand strategy is to weaken the United States replaced the United States in order then Duru Song also think the same thoughts and Hiroaki Deng Xiaoping's strategy of keeping a low profile is not permanent and this is actually keeping a low profile Duru Song Deng Xiaoping clearly pointed out that the 24 words concentrated strategic approach should speak 16 words Duru Song made a mistake this time did not seem to translate to the CCP turned 16 this word is put forward by Deng Xiaoping's calm observe them calmly so keeping a low profile is not putting Yousuozuowei 16 words concentrated Duru Song said that the CCP believes the 2008 global financial crisis started to replace the US as the beginning of a strategic opportunity so from that stage in 2008, when the Chinese Communist Party in the military changed from the previous emphasis on using mines missile submarines to weaken American power transition to the establishment of a regional order through control of maritime and amphibious aircraft carriers as well as the ability to emphasize with greater capability of surface ships and offshore facilities amphibious force with these enhanced military and its Communist past is also developing capabilities in the past ignored Trump then after the presidential election Xi also proposed "no big change in the situation of a century," the slogan seeks to expand it in the Shijiefanwei weaken the United States and strengthen its efforts to replace America as the world leader so I mentioned that American national Center for the interests of fellow he is so Heer comment book Duru Song pointed out he said I think Duru Song book of the most important and the most valuable thing he refuted China's behavior in the past few years, largely attributed to Xi Jinping personality and personal ambition that this argument further explanation and Duru Song Heer very clear that the majority of Chinese behavior trends and strategies earlier than before Xi Jinping appeared strength of the trend of China's strategic evolution and history of the system imbalance is more fundamental than the leaders of the personality Duru Song in the book also criticized the United States look bad Kiesinger Kissinger is the kind of pessimism Duru Song pointed out that in fact the 1960s Kissinger publicly written about a US recession in the last century and throughout the 1970s in a media interviews, he often talked about it for a long time his position with respect to the United States the kind of pessimism about the Soviet Union is well known Duru Song Kissinger considered today a replica of the argument might think that China dominated the global manufacturing industry increasingly high-tech fields and the United States then look at comparable purchasing power as larger than the US economy but also one of the world's largest naval and better handling than most countries a hundred years only to see it become a pandemic in 2020 the only large country to avoid recession in comparison Beijing even many people in Washington that the United States split into a hopeless impasse and deteriorating governance system but Duru Song said that pessimists tend to ignore the advantages of the United States of China's population that is young and abundant financial resources advantages border alliance for peace in addition strong economic innovation In the 40 years of China's rise America has been dominated not by accident Duru Song 1/4 view of world GDP, he is an important change reflects a White House national security team that is to say to determine the CPC began to clear strategic intent of this change should be on the future of the Chinese Communist Party USA strategies and policies affecting more and more of course Duru Song view is actually among one another if Sino-US relations is bound to be a simple competition Biden authorities have identified the shackles of the so-called Sino-US relations this competitive framework there would be no Cold War because the two sides into the Cold War led to many of the state against hostile relations since then in fact the CPC last year ignited the Sino-US relations in the United states and the Cold War is no longer a purely competitive relationship in this regard the President Trump Biden did not mention on which the Cold War did not put on foreign policy but that Trump and the Biden flexibility in foreign policy is not a substitute for awareness of the Cold War on cognitive Biden's China policy which has a core I want to talk a little bit about that values competition this problem is the usual Democratic Party to the previous statement but until now has not been through the point values in the United States do have different local authorities that Biden stressed the values of competition in the sense of what What form on the competition authorities of the CCP is more aggressive than Biden political phenomenon now has never happened in the era of over-Trump but the CCP Biden launched the era of the ideological offensive of the US authorities is not critical in the CCP ideological aspects have a major adjustment but Biden administration of American ideology began a major adjustment in favor of the Chinese Communist Party ideology, we know that the set of consistent system for decades but American ideology is a reversal of the authorities Biden behind the political line inside the United States education system prevalent in the mainstream ideology inside if you know some of the social sciences inside the last 30 years the proliferation of leftist argument that the United States is now being forced many schools to instill the so-called critical theory, and so this stuff from Europe as well as in the United States after ballooning to a variety of genres, including modern theory of critical theory, and so conflict with the CCP's ideology is actually the same ancestors are actually American leftist Marxist knowledge to this point a clear picture of the CCP molecular pretend not to know but one thing American leftist Zhishifenzi now show a clear picture that the university can not criticize Marx Marx must give his name the most universities in the United States there is a research institute called Cato Cato Institute it has a polls say 42 percent of the discovery say that Americans believe socialism is the future direction of US policy What does this mean mean that the US Democratic Party's ideological departure from the United States are moving towards the traditional values of the Chinese Communist Party ideology it just American wearing a jacket so it is not worried that the US Democratic Party's left-wing ideology but by the increasing spread of this shift to Biden attack the values the CCP authorities are not afraid of the American Left Marxist values, but the fear of the United States of traditional values that the United States is now Joe Biden authorities to suppress the use of traditional values that could have been borrowed Communist political right to do this slogan banner American campus to curb freedom of thought, freedom of speech and academic freedom to many so-called politically correct leftist slogan as a policy to implement the CPC so this is the case it made some kind of sense of ideological initiative because you not only the United States and Communist ideology form out of the same door and you are following the policy of the Communist Party's ideology is similar to the class struggle social opposition it faced in these areas Biden Communist ideology of the strong self-defense capability is actually not much real fear that the CCP is based on American tradition the values of democracy on the basis of which I would like to stress the democratic system is not based on leftist values is based on the traditional values of the American left-wing values are subversive destruction of the democratic system so that the core of Sino-US relations should not be Biden proposed set of so-called values of competition should recognize the political and economic confrontation in the Cold War both sides Thank you, teacher this clearly analyze Biden currently some analysts view with the director of his new book is important Duru Song of such a transaction, of course, China in the back we talked about some of the aspects of the correspondence we know that the Chinese ambassador to the United States of the Chinese Qin Gang recently published their first speech after he took office, but of course everyone is very concerned about the content in general we say that analysis is probably toward Alaska Tianjin talks or to do some of these context which of course still be re-emphasize the triple bottom line reiterated China's two lists even remind the United States not to misjudge the situation and some do not even provocative especially in the South China Sea issue put forward for Taiwan, Tibet, Xinjiang, Hong Kong Some correspond to some of the warnings so the whole field of speech sounds we thought wow this is generally the people to go to this guest house should be a little bit of harmony but apparently we really do not like talking about the beginning of this whole war wolf in the end you think the teacher from your point of your analysis in the end among the entire speech process Qin Gang he wanted to express what do I think Qin Gang actually want to reverse this Biden national security team in particular represent Duru Song this view Qin Gang at the National Committee on US-China relations invited to give the National Committee on uS-China relations Board is an online lecture American business circles and political parties across the camp to send hug panda Qin Gang's speech mainly to refute the so-called United States of China's so-called false positives we have just talked about this point of view Duru Song actually reflect the latest views on the Chinese Communist Party's White House national security team so Qin Gang actually not named in the criticism Duru Song perspective because so far the United States high-level policy team in addition to Duru Song that I mean the authorities Biden Biden authorities policy team in addition to Duru Song no other Al compare the CCP system strategy statement is so so Qin Gang told him that the United States now has three recognized first in the United States suggested that the CCP said that the United States lost the bet China's development goal is to challenge and replace the United States is the United States second understanding Some people think that the United States starting from Shilidiwei can deal with China as China has won victory over the former Soviet Union as "new Cold War" that the United States was considered the third Sino-uS cooperation more and more narrow this rivalry has been dominant so today we are at the beginning has introduced Duru Song books and his point of view it is clear Qin Gang criticized the three so-called US Some people think that these three know this and that are reflected in the book inside Duru Song of but only Duru Song at the White House team is currently Officer China this identity Qin Gang, then clearly speak out in his speech inside outdone without naming said that in fact hold three Americans know that the government Biden course, including tough against China to curb China deter members of Congress think so Qin Gang said three know basically reflects the current thinking and decision-making China policy the American political elite and then he began to refute these three kinds of knowledge considered a serious misjudgment of China's strategic intent is to Chinese history and reality of China-US relations is a serious ignorance so how serious his criticism mislead the prospect of it I did some analysis first he did not deny the Chinese in the United States lost the bet did not deny China's development goal is to challenge and replace the United States actually admitted it the second he did not Sino-US cooperation to deny more and more narrow face competition against this situation has occupied the dominant position it is also the default then the third he stressed that the CPC is the focus of Sino-US Cold War will not give him reason to not lose what is it he said, China not the Soviet Union of the Soviet Union lost in its own enclosed rigid Soviet transformation from the people indulging in corrupt arms race keen to aggression and expansion lead to national development stagnation destitution widespread popular discontent 140,000 after the Soviet Union cut off from one another tense relationship between the two camps incompatible Soviet Union Qi Resurrection of even one person is the fate of the Soviet man is the "country will decline tyrants a lesson." This statement saying it makes sense to me unreasonable to summarize what you can explain the relationship between the CPC and the Soviet Union when the Soviet Communist Party is essentially version 2.0

and then so if the Soviet Union completely fell from the Communist Soviet version 2.0 this perspective, then Qin Gang denied that started in disregard of the historical process of the Chinese Communist Party but if completely fell from this point of view the Soviet Union and the Communist Party of the Soviet atomic bomb almost threw it to Beijing Communist indeed not the Soviet Union but the enemy of the Soviet Union and then if we look at the political system and ideology of the Chinese communist Party or the Soviet Union because it is in both countries adhere to the following powers communist Marxist fundamentalism me explain a little first Chinese certainly not because the Soviet Union has always been two countries and the Soviet Union then entered the Cold War the Soviet Union with nuclear weapons aimed at each other once the Soviet garrison in the Sino-Soviet border one million but forget Qin Gang told Before the last half of the century CCP this entrenched mountainous rebel forces rely on Soviet support assistance only survive and then rely on military aid to the Soviet Union to seize power so the CCP CPSU fed cultivation out of the Second Qin Gang forgot to tell the last century 50 CCP's fully and completely emulate the honeymoon between the uS and Soviet communism was better to marry than good to have a popular slogan of Chinese communist Party, called on the Soviet Union there is a close call, "today is our tomorrow Soviet Union" called the old Soviet Union the words a bit like Big brother underworld terms so from this point of view, then say China or the Soviet Union was the second Soviet Communist Party is also not wrong so again in order to win the national leadership of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union two sides are enemies in rebel hands ready to destroy the Soviet Union out of this critical moment Communist Party of the United States helps then put it on the arms of the United States under the US nuclear umbrella drill therefore not the Soviet Union, said the CCP's true because the Soviet Union is not going to take refuge in the United States, of course, it is not Lishixuejia Qin Gang course speech is not a respect for history but do not know how to respect the history of the country itself, there is no way diplomat respected by the international community in regard to the Soviet Qin Gang told a lot of problems, but he forgot to many countries in the world are looking at today is his criticism of the CCP concerned these problems talked about the Soviet example than Soviet Communist serious corruption transformation hundred thousand times that the world knows only to look at the bank a Swiss bank account CCP officials hiding property to clear those property owners are members of the Politburo of the above the amount is thousands of trillions of dollars of indulging in arms race is not so talked about today is the Chinese Communist Party is promoting his very successful thing you talked about the widespread popular discontent and maintenance of stability CCP today is a day of what is not that widespread popular discontent Road for decades yet talked about the tense relationship between the United States and Communist China and the US since the Cold War does not ignite and the United States have been at loggerheads in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea do so many deadly illnesses that year the Soviet Communist Party today but also about the whole thing is there then the CCP can on their own Soviet big brother crossed swords was put into the embrace of the United States but is also expedient in order to survive today so he once again crossed swords on the United States but is there any wonder why the CCP wolf does not change nothing in this thank a teacher just too Comment Qin noted that there are in fact special mention Huawei I think he also mentioned that this little hint that Huawei this if you do it this way because we are not afraid of our past history inside you see this when he mentioned that in when the Soviet period because then they become enemies of the Soviet Union but also the large number of human talent this equipment should withdraw all he said that we have survived the same Huawei If you want to so engage us, then we will quite too wow this fully demonstrated throughout the wolf of course fighting this section we will talk about this on the one hand say that Huawei is also about to judge this imply that Xi Jinping certain attitude you want to go to the US it well what you want to reflect on how Huawei how kind I might do some counter-whether someone will respond to this incident from the analysis we have just the teacher Ren Guoan team before and after the two senior officials in the government Baidengchuanpu inside they do someone will in the final analysis這個拜登走到現在 是真的在抗中 還是有別於川普當初的一些內容 因為畢竟現在有些事件可以來做比較 我想老師可以來做一些分析回應 另外有人說 那顯然中國現在是不是可以預測出 它比較明顯的對於美國的 這些反制的一些策略跟方向 是不是可以請老師幫我們分析一下 剛才主持人談到秦剛的話 那麼秦剛的話其實我覺得不重要 因為他的主子的話才是秦剛的座右銘 所以我們與其聽秦剛的 還不如再看看中共領導人習近平 最近講的話和做的事情 那麼就可以清楚今後 中共對美國的戰略定位 那麼從這個戰略定位 從中共對美國的戰略定位 我們也就能看出來美國 能夠做什麼不得不做什麼 那麼關於節目時間有限 我就只講兩點 第一點就是9月1號 習近平在中共中央黨校的 中青年幹部培訓班 開班儀式上有一段講話 他說我們面臨的風險挑戰明顯增多 總想過太平日子 不想鬥爭是不切實際的 他要求中共黨員要丟掉幻想勇於鬥爭 在原則問題上寸步不讓寸土不讓 那麼這段話在中國引起了廣泛的關注 很多評論認為說這是習近平 對中國對美關係的最新表述 那麼中共官媒《人民日報》的海外版 旗下有一個社交媒體公眾號 叫《俠客島》也轉發這篇文字 那麼3個月前習近平還在 中共政治局的集體學習會上強調 中國還要在國際社會上廣交朋友 努力塑造可信可愛可敬的形象 那麼現在3個月以後一下子變成 丟掉幻想寸步不讓 那麼習近平講話裡 這個丟掉幻想勇於鬥爭 和是從毛澤東1949年8月 中共建政前夕提出來的一個 叫做「丟掉幻想準備鬥爭」 是從那裡搬過來的換了兩個字而已 那個時候毛澤東講這段話 是針對美國政府 發表《中美關係白皮書》 當時那個白皮書提到說美國要團結 當時中國的中間派毛澤東說 不要讓帝國主義把他們拉過去 叫他們丟掉幻想準備鬥爭 那麼今天中共再提準備鬥爭 當然是要在中美關係上 和美國鬥下去 那麼至於寸土不讓 無非是說在台灣和南海爭議上 要和美國還有美國的盟友鬥到底 那麼中共到底要看怎麼鬥 我們可以看看軍事層面 就今天我講的第二點 9月6號中共的外宣官媒《多維新聞》 用「中國發禁令或射洲際核導彈 美軍間諜機連日抵近偵察」作為標題 做了這樣一些報導他說 9月5號長期跟蹤中國軍事動態的 法國軍事網站《東方鐘擺》是網站的名字 注意到蘭州飛航警報區的通告 把在內蒙古阿拉善左旗吉蘭泰鎮發射導彈 落點在新疆民豐縣直飛距離是2000公里 據公開信息 吉蘭泰附近有解放軍的導彈測試基地 和洲際導彈發射井 這個報導中下面這段話更值得關注 他說中國現役的三種洲際導彈射程 均超過1萬公里 能夠直接威脅到美國本土 長期以來中國採取核模糊政策 外界對中國核彈頭數量猜測 一直在200到300枚之間徘徊 但隨著美國的持續戰略施壓 以及新冠疫情帶來的死亡60萬人 並未損傷美國的戰略承受力 中國有必要改進這種核戰略 這段話是什麼意思 我分析有四種意思 首先中共的洲際導彈 始終以打擊美國為主要目標 其次中共過去的核彈頭儲備 數量不公開保持一種核模糊政策 是不願意引起美國的注意 第三現在中共是要改變核模糊政策 要公開擴張核軍備 加強用核武器威脅美國的強度 這就是冷戰當中的軍事對抗的升級 那麼最後第四點就中共原來認為 新冠疫情可以嚴重削弱美國國力 但現在發現說 疫情達不到嚴重損傷美國的目的 他還要想別的辦法 我這一句第四點大家聽明白沒有 裡面有一個indication 有一個暗示 就中共原來是把新冠疫情 當作生物武器在用的 希望來削弱美國的國力 讓中共能夠占上風 但沒有達到目的 那麼現在有不少短視的媒體 把中共恢復和美國合作的希望 寄託在中共明年20大 習近平下台這點上 那麼我們以前節目裡分析過 如果瞭解中共最高領導人的權力 是怎麼形成的怎麼穩定的 也就是依靠他對其他高幹的 這個警衛通訊和保健的監控制度 所以指望習近平下台是鏡花水月了 那麼中共明年是可能換總理的 但是這個不會改變 對中美關係的基本方略 那麼在中共這樣的 咄咄逼人的威脅面前 其實拜登的選擇空間是變得越來越小 拜登是已經嘗試了 反覆派高官到中國協商 希望能夠這個 分別在一些具體的領域裡頭 建立合作關係 結果基本上全部被頂回來了 中共要求是說 要麼你美國全部放棄對中共的反制 向中共全面讓步 要麼兩國就這樣對抗下去 而且是逐步升級 所以現在中美的關係 是在漸進型的惡化 而主要的推手就是中共 所以目前來看 不是拜登不想嘗試與中共合作 而是中共通過拒絕合作 來逼美國全盤讓步 那麼對美國來講 杜如松其實已經講過了 美國白宮當中這個國安團隊知道 中美之間已經進入零和格局 就不是中共輸就是美國輸 所以今天這個今後 這個具相對優勢的美國基本上 是不可能用全盤讓步 來換取所謂的中共的合作 因為全盤讓步只會導致美國全盤輸掉 而不會讓中共與美國真正的 誠實的合作 那麼如果美國全盤讓步 中共只會得寸進尺進一步掏空美國 這一點其實杜如松的書 已經講得很清楚了 是謝謝我們程老師 針對美中最近交鋒升級 彼此相互過招的部分 我想做了非常清晰跟精彩的一些分享 那也讓大家可以更瞭解 我覺得我很敬佩我們的老師 也是有什麼樣的資訊說什麼樣的話 外部的環境隨時會變化 但我們不斷地透過這些分析 提供最新的一個判斷分析給大家 我想至少我覺得我們的 所有的這些來賓們都很正派 我們講我們相信的一些事情 這也是希望我們這節目 可以引起更多的人來關注 我們也有別於一些濫情的 謾罵的這些政論節目 所以更需要大家的支持 今天很謝謝我們所有的 觀眾朋友的收看 也謝謝程老師帶來精彩的內容 謝謝老師 謝謝主持人 也謝謝我們熱心的觀眾朋友們 謝謝大家收看這次節目 也期待大家收看我們下一次節目 謝謝

2021-09-17 05:46

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