盲點?誤判?美中情勢惡化 台海陷危機。前海軍司令部中校:若台海戰爭無法避免 會以何種面貌出現?台灣該如何防衛?如何擊退共軍? 210828
Hello everyone and welcome to the political and economic forefront Uncensored look at China I'm your host Zhang Honglin thank you again for joining us our subscription users has reached 190,000 this thank you for your support we hope to exceed 20 Million Three Hundred Thousand 500,000 as soon as even one day to 1 million of course I hope you give us more encouragement I hope you will help us to share transmissible then of course you like to leave a message in some way we are, of course, the one we are looking forward to our Saturday night except Wednesday at 7 pm Taiwan time when we point outside broadcast Monday Tuesday with Thursday we have the highlights in the morning Taiwan time of broadcast time will be so welcome to enjoy the same can click through to our support of our recent uS-China relations have always been of course program which we are talking about a very important thing was that the United States with China is now increasingly tense relationship and it certainly has a lot of reasons but one reason called a miscarriage of justice between each other for some form of data for some information on this misjudgment misjudgment this matter and we need to think about because if a company makes false it may be a loss even if this collapse is the head of state political leaders that made a wrong judgment and at worst a serious step down so we could subjugation today, in the end can have a good talk about what they have between the uS and some of misjudgment and we need to focus on today very happy we invited a senior researcher perspective China is also honorary professor of political science at National Taiwan University of Ming Ming Juzheng teacher teacher Hello Moderator Ladies and gentlemen macro Linxiong good friends, Hello, everyone is a teacher I think the first question we usually ask directly of course in international relations this miscarriage of justice in this matter of course, are discussing a very important study because there really just mentioned once wow that was a miscarriage of justice will have a serious impact on the international relations, especially between the past we see that in fact there are very many cases of course, there might even turn some of the reasons for a war so it was that this miscarriage of justice is a very important part of this Can I ask the teacher because the deadlock between the two countries the United States in the end you think that this is not a very important factor is the fact that you have just made it very exciting that you just speak at worst miscarriage of justice in the political heads of state or international politics among them if there step down while in this country off on international relations in general we really like this theory of international relations in which we care about misjudgment misjudgment on an accurate translation of the English called misperception called the wrong perception because of misperceptions form wrong judgments so called false positives that generally come we worry about what it says is false outbreak of war, say there are several situations the first is due to a mistake and not prepare the most famous case it is a World war II when the World war II, when Stalin signed a treaty with Hitler and Hitler would not think to say beat him or at least he thought Hitler was not going to fight the results did not expect war Fight broke out and he was not prepared for is a good example of this second example is the 1991 this morning this morning it suddenly found that Iraq Kuwait army build-up call came so they basically are not prepared to have the evening when destroy the country of what you said the most serious cases so the first is not ready but the second is that although there are ready to prepare more common example of this is the wrong time to World War II, when the German hit a spent force Germany to the Allied counterattack know will know from France or What kind of counterattack to come back but not sure what the final judgment is then the result was somewhere in Normandy did not expect is that although there are so ready, but ready mistake this is the second case is the third case of error or misjudgment of each other's intentions action read the other side of this message then made a wrong more famous case was the first World war when the Austro-Hungarian Empire to threaten the Serbs when Russia to help Serbia and Germany to help Austria-Hungary, Germany with Russia is no direct channels of communication when both sides see other actions that the two sides each half mobilization at the time of the conditions below half the mobilization had to be close to war can not be a full mobilization so when one side is the beginning of a half mobilize when the other side also began half mobilize thus creating a miscarriage of justice it is we are talking about the first three cases of excessive mobilization called fourth case it can also be called a miscarriage of justice has called blind spot blind spot so sometimes it of course a lot of our sources say wait a minute we often speak in the end it is the blind leading to misjudgment or miscalculation leading to blind spots frank that we have not made myself very clear we are not very clear, but we know that the two are symbiotic so often we listed here so in general we see that international relations among these types of situations is what I want to mention just a teacher the course also mentioned that very clear miscarriage of justice is very important even if we talked briefly mentioned including the first sequence of the second world war no matter might be among the causes of the war process or the process which apparently took place some of many such of course, everyone would go back to talk about the case, said that in the end what factors led to miscarriage of justice will cause these politicians will make a decision blindly follow a wrong interpretation of the teacher to see how information is first thing in the count just as we speak Normandy landing deliberately false message to him that he was deliberately false message to create the illusion you think you are that way because the Allies knew the Germans would be ready to attack the Allies and the Germans knew the Allies would say the problem is if I know .. let you know I'm ready to attack you, then I do not spend very effort to do here so I created a fake makes you think I'm here to log in and then the time is not at this time the Allies took a long time much effort it took much effort it took to do a fake 10,000 10,000 then landing parachute from the sky or something, and so what else to do because it was out of radar has been out for some time Well then sprinkle many aluminum foil aluminum foil spill from the air Sprinkle aluminum foil air time to see the reflected wave on the radar is a lot of stuff in there so that allied aircraft over the fact that after that time the German radar to see 10,000 people over there pretending landed the plane then flew over the spill aluminum foil, and so I just say to 1991 when the war in Iraq, said the US military in Iraq only to deceive the six people is a scientific and technological progress is reduced from 10,000 six but the results turned out better than it was the first is in dollars and the second is the intent to deceive the intelligence is wrong, say the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, when the collapse of the Soviet Union has come out the same day the newspaper reported the news US President George Bush sitting in the White House did not receive any information on the memoirs he wrote me no any information received result, many senators and representatives have already called him and suggested that how how how do you some senators even suggested that you should begin to attack the Soviet Union, and so what he said he was scared in the end you want do you know what we will be a world war but said he waited until he was embarrassed about 3 4 hours after he was first received information that the fall of the Berlin wall really what's going on, and so how he can make a judgment behind this is the first intelligence error and the second is the withdrawal of American troops in Afghanistan are then told him that we now see on the news all the thing he said after we think about our troops in Afghanistan's government can support a few weeks months or even years results less than one day is not it obvious intelligence error which point the United States is now Biden is his own man by his own Republican Party or the Americans or is this is the most powerful criticism of other countries where this is the second point third point democracy is relatively rare in communist countries or countries are more common in totalitarian ideology of misleading what is it that I firmly believe that something like this is not the case though, but because of my ideology is so I interpret it so went the wrong interpretation of our results is actually the most commonly cited example is the communist or communist regime communist regime set ... Well we have been saying it has a very complete view of the world has a very rigid view of the world that he believes the world is such a development, even if the world should not develop so he is it so wrong to see so very far off the mark you will see that for decades the economic development of mainland China Shekuaizhengzhi recent saying that out of touch with the world can see that very clearly misguided ideology that it is the third case is the fourth case try to figure out the meaning of this fact, the bureaucracy often seen inside the system but the system in which we are particularly vulnerable to strongman try to figure out the meaning because we often speak伴君如伴虎 If you accompany a strong people leader if you do not know what I remember it was in the day before yesterday, right before I saw a news that Kim Jong-un shot a senior Why because he did the day before with him did not know what to do and then go home this carnival also he seems hungry then you also do Another point leftovers on the leftovers after drank wine because that party has previously on home drunk drunk drunk and drinking results Kim Jong-un suddenly remembered to call to find him he did not answer the phone put he shot so try to figure out the phenomenon in Italy is particularly vulnerable under the political strongman of this I have come across an instance of years ago I went to the mainland and the Taiwan Affairs Office with those people Jiaoshu then there is a children's Taiwan Affairs Office greeted us hello very attentive and I chatted with him more than this then I say you received us you always hesitated to write reports it is unlikely he would tell me that you must report it to me that you wrote ... I said you know very well the situation in Taiwan, ah he really if the palm of Taiwan to the mainland because the phone was not so well-developed network did not have nothing so, after you outside to the mainland you the information you almost broke you do not know What he saw took place in Taiwan more than 10 parts of Taiwan newspaper every day and every day we asked him to say what he told me what happened in Taiwan, including Taiwan's meteorological station said he spoke out because I said, ah well you understand why Taiwan you are wrong to be so far off the mark on Taiwan policy do I say you do not write the report it he said I was writing the report was finally admitted I guess I said that your report sent up layer by layer sent up right on top of someone change report he not I admit the change you report directly say that is not on the invited us to dinner last night, the big boss man that he does not speak so I guess they changed up the layers of this layer is, say clerk wrote chief change chief change after the fall OK Commissioner for Justice after reading the change is not finished after the Director of angry not angry, said Director of reading to determine pushed up layer by layer minister after minister not angry so in strongman bureaucratic system is very easy to try to figure out on meaning in a democratic society will have to mention in society or in totalitarian strongman inside the fifth case this fourth case called "group think I" word unfamiliar "I group," the English called we-group that is a decision group or a group in the face of strong external pressure are usually two circumstances is a situation unprecedented split situation is the case of two kinds of unity in danger of split decisions impact on decision-making which obviously we can not figure out is the right one group when faced with high levels of stress in the internal decision-making will be very united Why error is very simple form, "I think the group," What, "I think the group" does too much pressure because we identify with each other we are very strong and we are in the same boat we are all the same ..
this is a life thing in here on a good to shore up so we will have a phenomenon that is a very strong sense of identity with each other we talk to me imitate you imitate you I speak not out of line we will not step on the line and any just speak a little deviation, then we feel that is not for the bandits arrogance ah ah speech is not to help the enemy that you are not humble my spirit ah then this fight So what led to pressure the army and so the results of it to suppress internal dissent because sometimes when you do this to think you say this solidarity which is good, but the disadvantage is that you will see things that I missed, that is to say just so that produce false positives crisis team called a crisis team regardless called blind spots Ye Hao called false positives are likely to occur in this time the United States has a very classic case is the Cuban missile event in the Cuban missile event which was formed from the United States here inside all the different views they were not able to accept a number of tactics to find experts in order to ... say if I go to attack Cuba would produce what results come when temporary consulting came in there was a colonel at the time and then they come in to say that we plan to attack Cuba so he used this tactic's perspective this plan say it will not do this project how many how many loopholes in this place there is a problem this place has a problem he finished counting the number after you finish dumbfounded would like to say how we set the plan had so many problems it results after he went out with what Defense Minister Defense Minister he called up to say your name, he said my name defense minister said that you are what class he said the colonel ah, he said I want you to say he wanted to lift the general ah you want to rise again next general nonsense he allowed came in to say good day after two days he came again to completely changed his tune you want to hear what I What speaks to you you ask me such an answer would ask that I got to the final answer, as it perfectly well he was later fully consistent with the generals may rise but that the United States plans to put out a final full of loopholes so then a lot of flaws uS to review if that is too much internal unity and it will happen so later in the crisis which we added different people deliberately a factor inside this group add a different color man thought his role is to provide different ideas, but all of you can not call him a question you can challenge him but he can not blame his particular point of view can not be loyal to call him this last point is critical is what a gamble this is the time of World War II Japan was not to attack Pearl Harbor to get all sorts of information do they say that the act may be against us, but why fight it because if you do not fight, then we look at this gamble is dead so also called false positives do not call it a miscarriage of justice of the two a case between a teacher is that I think this really Oh just mentioned we see some information on the press or politicians in the United States also talked about their own internal said some relative misjudgment uS-China relations in a number of international experts believe that the same will be said of this misjudgment accounted for US-China relations are now produced some tense confrontation relations must be accounted for a certain proportion that some of the teachers from the perspective of US-China relations in the end what misjudgment can be divided into two is a good one is the Chinese Communist Party USA Communist Party USA see me first say that the United States Department of the Chinese Communist Party Will of course say very much more attractive I would like to say that the main three points and then give some examples of the first is the attention now made it very clear look at Donald Trump when he said the United States the previous presidents misread a question we all feel said we were going to do business with the CCP and why on the one hand we want to make money two aspects is when they start their business increasingly Zibenzhuyi when mainland Chinese economy more and more developed society, when it will begin to change and then there we have talked about this democratization is called classical democratic theory simply is to increase the middle class economically developed after the increase of the middle class society after he claimed that he will ask the ruler or the ruling party or the ruling strongman to concede so when those in power would conflict with the middle class to the last pressure those in power must concede so called classical democratic theory classical democratic theory that said the CPC would change out that way for 40 years now and found no change in the CCP has not only failed instead, take advantage of this change in economic exchanges and strengthen ourselves a threat to the United States this is the first developed economy this miscarriage of justice is bound to lead to democratization and the second is lighter point they feel that this can coexist peacefully with the Chinese Communist Party simply called three and theory is peaceful coexistence peaceful competition peaceful transition to peaceful coexistence that we can understand what I Zibenzhuyi peaceful competition with communism we do not fight to the last peaceful competition to see who is more powerful third point is called peaceful transition is to finally win or I Zibenzhuyi communism win the Western world or Europe and most of the world because they think the idea is more normal now we generally think so, unlike the early years of our Taiwan now have more backbone to retake the mainland now say that we look to see is not diving CCP will collapse in fact, this is a theory of a peaceful transition of deformation is understandable, but it has such a problem because you think you are, when in fact there is an assumption that you assume that after the CCP is a normal country it will eventually develop it so slowly but change is not necessarily ah it is not a normal country or conversely, in case it is not a normal country how to do this we actually think this neglect is the second phenomenon third phenomenon is deduced from this fact, Taiwanese see clearly the United States early in the past often have this phenomenon Communist Party did not feel that they have no ambition ambition we have no ambitions CCP CCP CCP United States has no ambitions for a world without ambition he just wanted to make money to survive, and so what you want to watch carefully now so many people in Taiwan think right then the United States a lot of people think it is because he or did not understand or underestimate the powerful Communist brainwashing of fact, this issue is very serious that they do not know the Communist Party to become before the Communists to go through training many years and that culture is a very thoroughly brainwashed in any one part of the process of brainwashing unsuccessful you will be eliminated as long as you can not get into the Communist Party So into the Communist Party after that you usually every stage of brainwashing have been relatively successful then after washing the brain to try to decide their fate is not to say every few days every few days to give you the training and then continue to review the performance of any part of your deeds you out the major problem I put you clear out so these Party members will consciously or unconsciously, to maintain consistency with the Party Central Committee so this result is very serious in Western society do not understand the CCP's brainwashing of these cases the situation is so brainwashed party members always feel that it is another country with it you can get along slowly like this kind of thing does not realize that the United States is only now slowly so looking back in history we see that the United States repeatedly misjudged the first time the CCP should be said that from 1945 to 1949 between the United States believes that the CCP is just Tudigaige were very clean with respect to the Kuomintang government, he was very very clean and very energetic what it is not like the first mistake second error is the United States after the Communist seizure of power he was not really believe he will Communists he soon fell out with the Soviet Union, the United States so I think that the thing I want to containment of the Soviet Communist Party to draw containment of the Soviet Communist Party has sided want to tell you I do not believe the United States to the Soviet Union to the United States wholeheartedly believe he CCP believes this will be another南斯阿夫狄 Stewards confrontation with the Soviet Union and he tried to win over the Chinese Communist Party fiercely results gave him a note and then the end result is that the Korean War is a serious miscarriage of justice this second case the third case is the normalization of relations with the communists Nickerson this I do not have to explain a fourth Carter when he established diplomatic relations with China and the CPC, he said I want to make stronger and then let him go to the Soviet Union to reduce the threat of these our United States so the CCP pressure to produce what you see today results in all aspects of science and technology to strengthen the economy and finance in the military this fourth fifth of the more extreme is the anti-communist Reagan Reagan is started but over anti-Soviet anti-Communist Party so he lied he also said that I believed he thought the CCP after further draw against the Soviet Union would help the 817 final communique signed almost killed us again that George Bush Tiananmen massacre he believes the CCP will repent so sanctions against the CCP do this reluctantly after one year and took another excuse and then the lifting of the sanctions and let the Communist Party of the escape to Clinton Clinton is also another case had also hated Communist Party is the result of last Clinton also lied let him participate in the WTO so 10 years down the CCP's economy grew 9 times as much become the world's second largest economy, the United States finally see that there are a few more sober person is a Pillsbury we have talked about writing a book then again believe Pillsbury Trump Pompeo Pompeo course with a wonderful Chinese think tank called Yu Maochun so these people see the face of the Chinese Communist Party after more correct policy direction is indeed the teacher just mentioned that they United had hoped to Communist system of the Soviet Union then of course the end result looks like we have no recently they have joint military exercises with a certain irony, of course, I think this is a miscarriage of justice of the American Communist Party in the United States and I believe also there are some false teacher and you think the first is what it is their first theory is Marx's theory of Marx believed that the decline will say Zibenzhuyi eventually decay is we will be replaced by socialism communist ideology As I said, this miscarriage of justice leading to the back of the place came to be Lenin Lenin said Zibenzhuyi intensified last come to this imperialist war between imperialism and will then finally we will be able to destroy them this second misjudgment of this theory believe the Chinese Communist Party for a long time believed at least 30 years to 1980 they say it looks very upset to review Zibenzhuyi seems to have thriving probably not happen now changed right now we are not mentioned Xi Jinping said that we are sun goes down or something, and so for example, we are now so powerful up the first theory is Zibenzhuyi will decline this miscarriage of justice now reincarnated this first point second point of the CCP have a very deep-rooted judgment of the United States is the United States focus on commercial business interests focused on mercenary about it can be bought almost 6 months ago or a little earlier, there is a movie out of it on the Internet was not known as a continent called this economic Dr Di Dongsheng called Di Dongsheng a scholar of our continent we call Di Dongsheng, he said the United States is our mercantile what so why in the past every time conflict between the United States and we can settle in and get him because it was our top what was on top of it we bought off the top of the American people so that he can help us settle him talking about the uS political and business circles there are people who he settle Whether on Wall Street or politicians who have so mercantilist this is a major miscarriage of justice when you look at Donald Trump Taiwan judgment Trump also said he believed mercantilism so definitely buy later found, said Trump personality among them a soldier in personality so this is where the second major misjudgment misjudgment is just a third of our past, we mentioned briefly mentioned the fact the sun goes down or a strong west to east CCP now that I constantly think I'm stronger now rise up and down America's relative weakness Why does the United States weakened the CCP to make this judgment based on what's most important to a first important basis for the 2008 financial crisis on Wall Street this fall was very tragic American Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae also fall very miserable so a Lehman brothers the series was to drag on so you look at the United States, said the CPC think this system is problematic in that the first American strength slowly returned, but later said the CPC think you beating the first case then this second case is from 2019 Wuhan pneumonia began to now the United States was beaten very badly all aspects of economic and military have been playing some pretty turmoil hit and injured so he Say you look weak US a third of it is the withdrawal of troops in Afghanistan Afghanistan I think the Chinese Communist Party would get three conclusions can not win the first US withdrawal of US troops in Afghanistan second third Biden incompetent incompetent mess on three factors put together so you see weak uS proved that he also saw what do you see your election chaos and battles between the two parties plus we have said about the war and social unrest so this is my golden opportunity Communist plus we have just talked about prayer Gordon is a guy incompetent to deal with so many people now and then he did not say what his impeachment to deal with it so it looks like the United States to be weak for some time so we have the opportunity to understand the United States is now so worried about the uS Communist misjudged him so weak US to tell him that I did not give you my weak point so be careful next period of time as long as the United States clearly correct, but a blessing in disguise when the Chinese Communist Party in Taiwan here want to bully Taiwan or Taiwan want to deal with what the United States will probably see so overweight so I can do a simple conclusion it first just say if those words are true in international politics among misjudgment is inevitable that we have to do is constantly alert as I just said, we want to put them in decision-making circles of some to intentionally put some disagreement about the naysayers who dedicated his enemies to speak specifically to help us see our original areas of negligence this is the first point second point is that we want to see from the Chinese Communist Party ideology to modern leadership Ye Hao thought he I think very clearly to destroy the United States is not his idea of a joke we do not think that he just think he's not serious to say to destroy the United States but the first step to destroy the United States could be won Taiwan Although I do not feel that there is danger but I have to remind everyone that he thought so I do not really worry about what I'm really worried about these issues does not want the United States to destroy the CCP this is the trouble that time Hitler wanted to destroy the United States of course not destroy me first and then slowly to destroy Russia against the United States that was the last thing he is one step at a time when the United States does not believe that Hitler want to deal with the world the United States does not want to deal with it is very dangerous Hitler Hitler getting so big getting bigger and bigger until finally the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor the United States was determined to fight Hitler so after the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, Hitler finished very angry Hitler said that in the end you understand it or not you play the United States in international politics what you do not hit the United States we have a good day before you hit the United States that our problem is big it means just speak Japanese miscarriage of justice so now the US seems to have reached this moment point in time the United States intended to CCP if some miscarriage of justice he had not seen the CCP really want to destroy him so determined that I have returned to destroy communism, then this is a this will be the biggest danger is the greatest miscarriage of justice is of course the forefront of political and economic purpose is to reduce these foreign politicians especially American politicians to reduce false positives why I dare say this There are a lot of viewers are used to say wow thank you to hurry up now translated into English subtitles fact, the subtitle can already choose really Technology say they want more convenient way to find the pipe even very grateful to our friends may have some viewers in the United States he also taught at the university which we feel watched a few episodes of the show say these things to seek our opinion can not allow their students to understand what is in the classroom, I think this is for us is a great is a great thing this is what we want to reduce false positives American politicians, of course, we have been talking about of course, we know ourselves victorious in Taiwan say a notion is of course to some extent it is hoped to know more I think the more they know each other before we make the wrong reduction I think this judge can retain ... to make us all whether in policy in their own lives and property above which I think there is a greater number of safeguards to thank again today we thank Mingju Zheng teacher brought this from the perspective of this miscarriage of justice to talk about the next episode because I think maybe we could invite teachers to talk about it inside out in Taiwan between our so-called blue-green or nationals of the two major parties in the end there is no miscarriage of justice between the parties, I think this should also be a possible on the issue would welcome you to continue to lock our channel Hello everyone and welcome to the political and economic forefront Uncensored look at China I'm your host Zhang Honglin thanks again for everyone to watch for our program to get a lot of some of the support of course also welcome to subscribe to our channel at any time help us thumbs up and circulated at the same time also help us to remember to open a small bell at any time do not miss our show messages of course also welcome to leave a message if you have any kind of advice or want to hear some criticism of some elements want to know us and I think we will make every effort to help bring these related messages, of course, we want to know the recent concern of the international situation in Afghanistan which caused a lot of things to discuss when uS troops apparently caused many of them contain some criticism of some of the domestic and the United States President Biden also talked about this matter of course, many say that this part there are many reasons, of course, some people will say that this will not cause mention all the allies for the United States is not particularly trust you will think that to say that Taiwan will not be the next Afghanistan we all in the end of course, this will not become that Afghanistan will become Taiwan this thing is likely to happen with these withdrawal from Afghanistan Hiram comparable to that of our attention from what I think and we need to do something about first we are very happy to be invited again to the front of the Chinese Navy Command of Lieutenant Colonel Cheng Yao Yao we Lt. Colonel Yao good host Hello Dear viewers Hello, everyone is Yao lieutenant colonel I think we just went back to everyone concerned about the course after the cause of a withdrawal of the Afghan of course, some of the concerns many of us see the South China Sea exercises immediately after the CCP began to do in the vicinity of the Taiwan Strait missile related to these exercises Some say it is not unusual The CCP is not representative of the situation in Afghanistan by some of the pressure of want to do something a bigger or there is something called a different layout of some of the thinking of Lieutenant Colonel Yao how do you see such a development after the US military withdrawal from Afghanistan on the surface can now feel the United States seems to be abandoned Afghanistan and the Chinese Communist Party to seize this opportunity to energetically publicity also made some moves in fact in line with the strategic Communist Party's system strategy he is to driving a wedge between the United States and Taiwan because Taiwan issue since 70 years mainly the United States can not solve caught in the middle as long as the United States caught in the middle of the CCP is no way to solve the Taiwan issue so this is an opportunity to host so he just talked about now is like playing chicken blood as he hit the chicken while the CCP his verbal attacks and Bue he had some military action from the Chinese Communist Party and some of us start number 16 and 17 military exercises in the southeast and southwest of Taiwan's basically to get rid of than the entire east side of the Taiwan Strait and big scale before military exercises are rarely deployed naval warships aircraft come out a lot more this time it is a phenomenon of warships his second 055 warships warships even through the Tsushima Strait into the Sea of Japan, this is a very attention to this phenomenon there is also a phenomenon that is his Y-8 patrol aircraft actually entered the shooting range exercises in Taiwan and this is never is to increase the pressure on Taiwan told Taiwanese Taiwan United States does not tell us the CCP powerful and reliable on this purely one kind of psychological warfare in fact, the CCP will not use force against Taiwan because he he had to fight an uphill battle in anti-access must be allowed to use force against Taiwan before the Japanese attitude of the United States to force them to clear out of their deterrent live so this exercise seems Taiwan is a threat in reality he was doing, he must look to the Americans to keep the United States in a war I had him ... how do we fight a battle that battle with the United States in the analysis of this question is not inevitable America does not quit playing his first island chain of Taiwan can not play him with his current situation of the uS-Japan defense forces he can not beat him then why did he want to make Taiwan a war with the Americans ... what we do in war when we talk about three factors favorable factors and the Taiwan, USA and Japan accounted for most of this one to get it but the CCP is accounted location you traveled to the United States to the Chinese border to fight this is certainly bad for the United States Lee said the Chinese Communist Party so accounted for geography and the United States accounted for the middle there is a day so this time after the incident in Afghanistan to the Chinese felt the opportunity to see this opportunity on this occasion has been eyeing the Chinese Communist Party to keep the United States to fight a counter-intervention作戰 他就是在不斷地捕捉戰機 這個戰機對中共很重要 這次發生了阿富汗那個事情 他也把它當作一個戰機來對待 後面可能還有一些其他的這個機會 中共會切入的機會 他時時刻刻他忘不了 他要抓住這個戰機 如果說他跟美國打一仗 我們分析一下美國如果是打贏了 他就沒這個機會了 中共就沒這個機會 如果美國打輸了甚至打平手了 心有餘悸到台灣海峽 軍隊就是軍艦過來到台灣海峽 他們心裡其實有點害怕 這也是中共的一個契機 所以中國這次就講了 他的真正的目的是在做準備 包括我還瞭解到 他們現在在全面出擊 準備在南海還有軍事演習 這個演習計畫我還沒拿到 它就是說目前在這邊看 就是在台灣海峽在東海 戰場將來會建立在西南角 這個西南角對他的地利更有利 就是說中共抓住了這個機會 就是告訴台灣 他也知道台灣現在的這個 很多人心惶惶 很多人對美國不是很...
不是很相信 因為美國畢竟在這70多年之間 確實好幾次拋棄了台灣 這個讓台灣人民心裡面 心裡有一點顧慮 中共抓住這個機會 所以說這次的16、17號以來的 這幾次演習主要是心理戰 軍事上沒有實際的動作 是我想姚誠中校大概談到很清楚 這個心理戰 的確這種認知的作戰的部分 的確在我們這段期間 有人說是如此 當然即便是這樣子 他投入一個小石頭 這引起的漣漪 在整個台灣內部政壇社會 當然引起許多的一些討論 其實很多人看到說 這個美國對阿富汗撤軍 會產生這些影響 也有人說也不用擔心 因為這件事情 拜登被罵到臭頭的時候 他對其他事情就會更堅定跟加碼 所以我們看到最後這個在國內裡面 大家對於拜登的質疑裡面 就看到他表現出這個 從過往這個好像戰略的模糊 突然變清晰也有人說是不是口誤 因為他這個承諾了對於台灣的保障 他也說這個台灣當然不是阿富汗 這中校您怎麼看待這樣的一個變化 首先這個台灣跟阿富汗 根本就不是一回事 我認為美國從阿富汗撤軍是對的 從整個戰略布局上來說 他是對的 他沒有必要常在那個地方 長期下去打一仗 他把軍隊輸送放到印太地區 這是國際戰略的需要 只不過這次他的撤軍 他有一點計畫沒有計畫好 組織沒有組織好 這個這方面有欠缺 但是它的整個大方向是對的 台灣的距離戰略位置 那是阿富汗是根本就沒法比的 現在圍堵中共在海上圍堵 特別是美日的聯盟 我們要看到這一點 台灣失去以後 日本就會直接面對著 中共的軍事威脅 而且中日之間有世仇 所以美國考慮到 日本和亞太地區的這種安全 他會堅定的協防保衛台灣 再一個台灣是一個民主制度的國家 如果美國把台灣放棄了 他就沒有辦法 在全世界的民主國家面前抬起頭來 所以從政治上理念上和軍事上 各方面美國都不會放棄台灣 但這次拜登好像出來講了幾次話 可以這麼說中共對台動武 美國不會袖手旁觀 我覺得這個話已經講到到位了 這個不能再講到再具體了 作為一個總統來說 不會說我要怎麼怎麼的 所謂的說是什麼口誤 什麼戰略什麼模糊 這些東西都是有人在 找理由找藉口 其實不是一個總統他不是一次在講 台灣問題的地位的重要性 我記得他講了三四次 這個是而且美國的國務院 有包括他的軍方的官員 他也在不斷地強調台灣的重要性 拜登總統講到一個什麼程度呢 就把台灣和以色列 和日本和北約和韓國 放在同一個位置上 你想看看美日之間有軍事同盟 韓國有軍事同盟 北約就不要說了 把台灣放到這一個戰略層次上來說 怎麼可能還模糊呢 這個基本上戰略已經清晰了 我就是這麼講的 主持人您剛才問到了一個 怎麼樣讓這個拜登信守承諾 畢竟嘴上講的跟實際行動上 大家還要看他的實際行動 這個實際行動 我還是強烈的這個呼籲 美國在外交經濟軍事上 要齊頭並進地把動作做明顯 我記得美國有一個軍人說了一句話 講得非常好他說中共一旦打台灣 美國就跟台灣建交 建立外交關係哪怕不跟中共斷交 就是兩邊都承認 這個中共他就受不了 中共現在最怕的是跟美國脫鉤 他跟美國一脫鉤以後 全世界的小兄弟們全部跟中共脫鉤 他日子就沒法過了 所以我覺得拜登總統包括美國政府 應該把這個問題清晰化 你一打台灣我就承認台灣 因為我只有承認台灣 我在法理上才能 全面的介入台灣的保衛戰 所以我覺得美國政府 拜登總統要是想進一步的 深化和台灣的關係的話 這一點明確的提出來 中共他就要考慮考慮了 是我想姚誠中校所提的部分 應該很清楚 我記得在北約 為什麼大家會把這部分放大來說 哇這個是一個過往沒有過 這麼樣的一個直接的比喻 因為在北約很簡單的部分 在協防的概念是任何北約的國家 在締約國裡面被攻擊 就等同其他國家被攻擊 所以這個概念上的那個 結盟的儀式的強固性很重要 老實講中校談到一個 還滿精準的部分就是 這個中共會說干涉內政的部分 所以你怎麼可以出兵來做協防 但如果你這個要做到絕了 美國直接宣布建交跟台灣的時候 這時候就不是一個叫國內問題 而是一個國際的問題了 我想這個當然就是 可以來用幾個指標的確來檢視 美國未來怎麼做這些事情 當然中共對台灣大家都知道啦 絕對是你去問中華民國的國軍 假想敵是誰 日本韓國菲律賓 不會就只有中共就是這麼清楚 但台灣當然內部有我們自己的問題 我們當然不想挑釁我們也不好戰 我們也不主動去做什麼樣的一些動作 但畢竟中國對台灣 特別中共這些軍方還是有許多動作 我想中校最清楚 但我們現在看到 比較關心或擔心的事情是福建的平潭 這邊準備要做機場 明為是為了要讓未來 在經濟上更方便來交流 但畢竟這邊離台灣只有125公里 大家會覺得這是一個非常近的距離 從平潭到台灣的新竹這樣的一個地方 大家就很擔心會不會又有過往 所謂的假借這所謂的民航 或者其他民生上面的一些需要 而變成是很快的 轉型成所謂的軍用機場 對台灣的威脅更直接 這件事情 您怎麼分析怎麼判斷呢 中共在平潭造機場 我們從軍事上去分析 它這個是沒必要的 因為一旦台海作戰 一線機場都保不住這個是常識 所以說中共現在基本上 比較先進的飛機都放到二線機場 你比如在南昌在安徽的蕪湖 在江蘇在二線機場 二線機場它距離遠一點 它這個...你導彈打過來 它留空時間長容易防衛 一線機場基本上 如果打起來都保不住 就憑台灣的導彈這個攻擊 它對一線機場是沒有問題的 它噸數基本上在500公斤之內 那麼一線機場都保不住 你造一個平潭機場你能保得住嗎 台灣的火炮就可以打到平潭機場 所以說我認為平潭機場 它不是用於軍事對台作戰的 但是有一點我在和... 憑我的一種感覺就是中共對台 他基本上採取的是 就是70%是 滲透統戰瓦解 他並不是說要直接的 對台灣進行軍事進攻 這個我們把它3、7開 他只有30%的可能進行武力 就有軍事動作 70%的它的主流還是統戰 這個機場造了幹什麼呢 我在這裡也提醒台灣方面 因為我這兩天也看到了 台灣空軍的什麼司令的 然後就有很多飛行員跟中共有勾兌 那麼這個機場將來會起到什麼作用呢 就是台灣空軍的飛行員叛逃 飛機一起飛就下來了 我們不得不防 這個話提前放在這裡 中共如果要打台灣 他肯定是找到他有利的時機 台灣人心渙散對吧 現在台灣我也知道就20多萬軍隊 真正的中共來個100萬軍隊 大家一看打不贏 那會不會產生叛逃 就是說我打不贏我跑了 我也沒地方跑 再加上中共會給他許諾 金錢美女什麼什麼什麼都會給 你不能保證說台灣的飛行員就不會跑 台灣飛行員也跑過對吧 什麼黄植誠李大維是吧 包括還有一些民航機 平潭機場如果造好了以後 跑起來就更方便了 所以兩個方面去認識 一個它不可能是用於對台作戰 太近了一線機場都保不住 它所以說這個沒有用 如果從商業角度上來說 你修個平潭機場的意義也不大 你兩岸如果和平統一以後 通航了飛到平潭機場 油門再推一下加一下就到台灣了 何必在平潭再搞個機場呢 那個統戰的需要有這方面考慮 因為我在海軍航空兵幹了20多年 中共的海軍航空兵 中共防止飛行員叛逃 他寧願摔3架飛機 他都不願意跑1架飛機 現在是不是就在有這個企圖 我只是說談談我個人的觀點 平潭機場就是這麼一個狀況 是我想這姚中校剛剛提到的部分 這個值得我們從這個一些 不同的一些角度可以作為更清楚 當然中校前面也提到啦 這個中共如果 目前這個有沒有天時地利人和 來攻打台灣 目前看起來很多的條件當然不具足 但即便是如此我們看到 還是有許多的專家學者還是提醒 但你無法這個用常理來思維 這中共的思維特別是在最近 他還面臨到國際的內部的許多壓力 有人說他可能藉機來轉移焦點 所以包含美國軍方也提醒說 這個還是必須做好這些準備 哪怕是台灣都如此 我們認為我們還是必須要 做好這個備戰的心理準備 還是必須全民這個 都必須要有這種在精神上 必須要團結等等 在內部當然就不斷的一個拉拔 所以當然啦我們退一萬步來想 假設中共真的會來發起 對台灣來攻擊 他到底會用怎麼樣的形式來攻擊 那台灣您的建議該用什麼樣的方式 不管從政府從軍方從人民 從您的角度來看 我們可以怎麼做才能來抵禦 中共對我們的這些 所有的戰爭的動作 這個問題是這樣的 就是從宏觀上來看 中共3、5年內他沒有這個能力 去武力登陸台灣 就是正常的情況下看 沒有這個能力 但是也不能說百分之百 也有可能他會發瘋 他就是孤注一擲 他就是要打台灣 當然這個不能排除 雖然可能性不大 但是不能說沒有可能 那麼我現在就講 他假如要採取這個對台灣強攻 他會採取什麼形式 現代的登陸作戰三位一體 空中對吧這個水面包括潛艇 就是全方位的空降機降 搶灘登陸和潛艇特種兵的滲透 他就都有 但是作為對台登陸 就是渡過台灣海峽這種作戰 他的主要的兵力投送還是要從海上 因為中共就一個空降軍 他6個旅他能用4個旅 他也解決不了問題 他只是去戰術行動 搶佔台灣的一些碼頭機場 核心軍事要塞 他達不到能控制台灣 整個軍事局勢的這個能力 主要的還是靠他的海上的投送 就是集團軍 那麼他在打台灣之前 我們按照現代戰爭的常規的推理來說 電子戰網路戰這個先拿 反正你雙方都會打這個東西 全電子干擾就是網路訊息 就是先把你打成聾子瞎子 這個是現代戰爭的特點 這個是一個 第二個就是第一個 這個電子戰和這個網路戰的同時 他們會對台灣的雷達和通訊系統 進行打擊 就是第一波打擊是電子打擊 就是攻擊它的雷達 包括你台灣有兩部雷達非常好 中共飛機一起飛就能看到 這是中共看的眼中釘肉中刺 這是第一波打擊 第二波打擊在渡海之前 他必須要摧毀台灣的機場碼頭 如果讓台灣的海空軍有還手之力 包括台灣的這個導彈 對他的渡海部隊也就帶來了 重大的威脅 所以他毫無疑問 要把這些基地給炸掉 這個只有炸掉以後他才能渡海 但是我們只是想中共他單方面 他的單相思是幹這個事 實際上他達不了這個目的 他不敢這麼幹 他把台灣炸成一片廢墟沒有意義 炸成一片廢墟他的部隊登不上來 他就沒有意義 他打台灣是為了佔領台灣 他不會佔領一個一片廢墟 全台灣人民拿著鋤頭扁擔 跟他對抗的這個狀態 他不會達到這個狀態 再一個他一旦對台灣進行這種打擊 台灣有還手之力 聯軍也不會袖手旁觀 我們在做這個戰役推演的時候 我們也推演過 美日聯軍包括這個北約 包括一些其他人的國家聯合起來 他們會幹什麼呢 他們會在中共對台作戰的 就是導彈對台的 對台灣的機場碼頭進行攻擊的時候 要單單地憑台灣進行還擊 力量太薄弱西方聯軍必須介入 介入幹什麼呢 趁這個機會打掉中共的海空軍 尤其是南部戰區和東部戰區 他的火箭軍摧毀他 摧毀他是什麼目的 就是不讓他接下來 有能力去威脅台灣 威脅到周邊國家的安全 他光有陸軍在這裡沒有用 他威脅不了台灣 所以趁這個機會你先動手的 我就把你這個海空軍打掉 而且打掉這些海空軍之際 美國也不要出動陸軍的 他的遠程打擊他完全就可以做到 他的航空母艦他的驅逐艦 甚至他的核潛艇 他的B-1B B-2 和B-52 遠程打擊的這個兵力 摧毀中共的這些前沿基地要不了3天 中共在這個防衛方面 他是處於絕對的劣勢之下 我為什麼這麼說呢 第一美國打擊的都是遠程打擊 第二中共的攔射導彈非常差 他現在的紅旗系列根本就... 對美軍的遠程打擊根本行不成威脅 行不成有效有力的對抗 你比如說我最近也在發現 美國現在正在組織F-35C這個中隊 這個中隊組織起來 他為什麼組織這個中隊 這個中隊組織起來 他就是準備對中共沿海的 這個海空軍基地進行打擊 這麼一個部隊 當然我們以前講到過這個 美日聯軍在協防台灣是全方位的 包括他美國的陸軍空降兵 包括日本的陸上自衛隊 都在不斷地演練反登陸 就是一旦中共假如真到台灣島上來了 他們會有反登陸 但是美國大量的軍事準備 還是放在對中共的 海空軍的基地的進行打擊 尤其是美國絕對不會放棄 對中共核導彈發射這個平台的打擊 絕對要把它摧毀 不摧毀美國就有危險 趁這個機會把它摧毀掉 解除中共對世界的威脅 我認為戰爭會發展到這麼個程度的話 當然這個戰爭還是局部戰爭 有限戰爭點對點作戰 但中共仗打到這個程度的情況下 中共就會打面上的戰爭 美軍是點對點 消滅你一個點消滅一個點 你出來我把你消滅 中共他會把戰場全面鋪開 你這一次可以看得出來 055大驅南昌號居然穿過了對馬海峽 進入了日本海 他帶了兩條艦三條艦進去了 我剛才也講了 他準備也在南海進行演習 就是他把戰場全面鋪開 因為他占有基地優勢嘛 你美國人老遠的過來 顧不過來啊 就是戰場太多了他顧不過來 這個戰爭到這個形勢這個程序 然後有人提出來中共打不過 常規武器打不過美日聯軍 會不會用原子彈用核武器 會用我們從2年前就得到消息 中共對用這種戰略核導彈 對美國本土的攻擊 東風-5 東風-41 巨浪-3 巨浪-2 這個的可能性暫時沒有 他也不敢用這個東西 用這個東西以後真的是很... 他吹牛是吧可以吹 朱成虎說我讓出西安以東 跟美國人打核大戰 這是打口砲 但是實際上中共會有核武器的 用什麼核武器呢用戰術核武器 你比如說他的東風-26 要打美國的航母 它如果帶的是常規彈頭 它對航母威脅不大 航母不是隨便可以打沉的 如果東風-26上面裝一個戰術核彈頭 彈量不是很大的 它的彈量1、2萬等等 戰術核武器 它就是不打到航空母艦上 它就在航母的周邊爆炸 對航母也是一種巨大的威脅 所以西方聯軍應該在這方面要有防衛 因為中共他打不過你啊 他常規武器打不過你啊 他沒有辦法了 他就用這種戰術核武器 這個現象是存在的 但是他2年前就說過 美國如果用常規武器 攻擊他的航空母艦和核潛艇基地 他們就要用核武器進行反擊 我們從邏輯推理上 從戰爭這個發展的角度來看 這個是可能性是存在的 但是美國會不會用核武來打擊呢 我認為他不需要 一個他要控制這個戰爭的規模 他不能打成一個核大戰 打成核大戰對全世界都不好 對地球也不好對人類也不好 他不會的 他第二個他的常規武器 他有能力去跟中共打 他不需要核武器 而且美國是一個民主國家 他不是會隨隨便便對誰用核武器的 這一點放心 戰爭的規模應該控制在這個程度 即便中共用了核武器 小型的戰術核彈頭 美國也不會用不會跟中共打核大戰 但是美國更加堅定了西方聯軍 消滅中共核發射的這個基地的決心 我認為戰爭的你要講戰爭的規模 會發生到這個程度 至於台灣如何防守 台灣它政治上我就不說了 因為就是保持現狀吧 反正就是也不忍他是吧 我們把我們自己事情做好 我以前好像在節目上也講過 台灣的危險來源於你們內部 你們內部團結好 大家共同不管是什麼黨派 不管是什麼政治觀念 台灣是你們共同的家園 你們把台灣守好 有全世界這麼多國家在幫助你 不要怕真的不要怕 你們該幹嘛幹嘛 發展經濟人民生活很好挺好的 但是在防中共的方面有戰略性的考慮 你們現在是戰役和戰術方面 已經做得很好了 台灣像個刺蝟島一樣的 各種防禦方面考慮的應該... 我認為台灣的軍人們有智慧 考慮這些很周到 但是在戰略的層次上來講 你要抓住一點 中共打台灣他要速戰速決 你反其道而行之你打持久戰 戰爭一打起來以後你保存實力 你保存實力的方法很多 你飛機進洞庫 你的艦艇到了東岸去 到日本的一些基地 美軍的一些基地去保存起來 他不敢對美軍日本的基地進行攻擊 你陸軍就是你們要有這種觀念 他拖不了多長時間 他速戰速決他只能速戰速決 他拖一天他都很難受 他都會出現第二個古寧頭的 這種情況都很難說 再一個這個中共的軍隊 他現在不是處於一種 興奮和臨戰狀態 都是在被動的 都是對習近平都是陽奉陰違的 其實據我瞭解 大家都不太願意打這個仗 一個是這個仗打得沒有意思 第二個這個仗打不贏 第三個這個仗危險太危險了 我前天做了一個視頻說 我說中共要想渡過台灣海峽 就算你四個軍40萬人 從戰損率說 你得有10萬人掉到海裡面去 現在的武器殺傷力那麼強 10萬人掉海裡 獨生子女有家有庭 家庭的什麼的誰願意去打 當然我們是這麼一個考慮 就是說中共要想打台灣 他必須速戰速決 就像當年天安門事件一樣 把軍隊放到南苑機場去洗腦 洗完了以後就說天安門廣場 這個暴徒在殺解放軍 然後把他們放出去一衝 打了最後打完以後 衝出天安門到了天安門以後 很多單兵才發現上當了 不是那麼回事 打台灣也是這樣的 你一開始宣傳得很漂亮 台獨分子我們要打他 真正的一打起來 三天兩天或者48小時什麼什麼的 你要拖一星期以後大家都知道了 甚至我跟美國的一些朋友們 在談論這個問題就說一旦開戰 那麼電子戰放在前面 中共的防火牆就保不住了 肯定保不住 大量的訊息進入了中國 他想洗腦他想瞞也瞞不住了 所以台灣要抓住中共 速戰速決這個戰術 你們持久戰你們先保存實力 你讓他去戰你也阻擋不了 他一炸西方聯軍就是炸他 你們台灣就在那兒看著 偶爾放幾炮表示一下 你們台灣主要的精力 是守衛你們的島守衛你們的家園 不是去跟中共打有西方跟他打 當然你也得表示一下是吧 就是說總的意圖說 台灣軍事上目前沒什麼太大的威脅 不要搞得人心惶惶 不要說很多人 我覺得台灣有很多人說 跟阿富汗兩個相比 也就是老美靠不住 不存在這件事 老美放棄台灣他在世界上別混了 塔利班是什麼東西 一個恐怖組織對不對 台灣是什麼標準的民主國家 是我們中華民族民主的一盞燈塔 也是全世界認可的這個民主體制 放心不會放棄台灣的 是謝謝我們姚誠中校 我想真的是這個苦口婆心 其實在上一次的訪問 姚誠中校就一再地提醒 最大最大的風險 就是來自於內部的紛亂 來自於內部的不團結 來自於內部有人窩裡反 這我想都值得我們 好好來做一些思考 當然也謝謝中校從他過往 對於中共軍方許多的思維的部分 從他自己親身涉入的 一些經驗來作為分析 我想可以讓我們更為清楚 瞭解這些輪廓 再次感謝前中共海軍司令部的中校 姚誠姚中校帶來精彩的解析 我們希望下次還有機會再邀請您 非常感謝 不客氣感謝