26.05.НЕФТЬ.ЗОЛОТО. IPO РобинГуда. АКЦИИ ММВБ:СБербанк,ГМК, Газпром,ТКС,Петропавловск,Русгидро,ТГК-2
Friends welcome you morning review. let's take a look at the current situation in the markets. what news is happening where the wind is blowing and what all this one way or another in the near future can lead to. well, and the movement of quotes. where the dollar ruble oil gold other assets will go . today in the morning and during the day, so
friends, let's see what we had yesterday and, accordingly, what disposition we prepared for today. So yesterday morning the data on the German gdp came out. they are above negative. but here it must be said that these negative
data are not so large, the deviation is not so great, and given the fact that the first quarter in Europe was here, in fact, this deviation that arose for the worse, from my point of view, it is not so critical for the economy of germany in europe and for the euro is much cooler. the fact that the index of business expectations and the index of the business climate came out positive and, moreover, this excess in percentage terms is more significant than the data that came out on GDP. and then this indicator, in retrospect, is what happened. and this indicator of the future is what is expected in the near future and where the German economy will go and the euro exchange rate can actually be said to be the Deutsche mark here everything writes optimism and predicts a good movement further up the euro. but the summit of the leaders of the eu there is something they lose before they lose so on. United States Composer Housing value
index , see here the situation in terms of the aggregate of these indicators released in the United States, it is very interesting, it is very interesting in what way it is most likely to be interpreted as something that a bubble in the American real estate market will be found. because the rise in prices continues, whatever one may say, the composition of the indices of housing housing costs in the United States are growing. but at the same time, new home sales are falling. Well, here the factor is twofold, on the one hand, it may not produce the amount that is in demand, but on the other hand, it may be from sales in general, and plus the consumer confidence index comes out a negative consumer confidence index, this is how people plan to expect to receive and spend their income in the future if the consumer confidence index falls and at the same time the mortgage does not continue to fall in price, then this indicator is very likely in the foreseeable future, either it is given either lads well, now summer is usually no well, at least until August in Russia, and in the whole world until September October, no negative critical no events happen. and therefore this dissonance
that has been outlined here, it will most likely be played out already somewhere in the end of September at the beginning of October. Further. the unemployment rate in russia here the indicator came out better than expected and better than the previous value. but in fact it would be surprising if it was worse or the same. why. because in russia all macroeconomic indicators improve significantly when oil prices rise. notice when there is growth and not when oil is expensive. that is, when oil rises while the engine is dripping, it spins vigorously.
and then even if the price rises and is held in the appointments , stagnation begins, nothing grows, everything either fluctuates around the same value, or even starts silently and so on. 23:30 on the data came out crude oil reserves, they came out worse than expected. cut less. and there is a certain correlation between the data that will be released today at 17:30 and this data. that is, here the base has already been laid that today at 17:30 there will be expectations that oil data will be released that will be worse than expected. and therefore it is
highly likely that oil will begin to correct today at 17:30. and as far as events are concerned, we are today for today only crude oil data. most importantly, judging by the data and the previous ones, they are likely to cause some kind of glorification of the corrective rollback. so friends gave what concerns russia today lukoil fin reports and holds a conference. Lukoil will be an interesting
topic for tks groups today strategy day nmtp growth telecom gas tmk fskn russia board of directors. here a lot will concern dividends and it is very likely that there will be movements on these shares today. so here's another interesting article about gas. the fact is that in russia for the year in the first quarter of the twenty-first quarter of the 21st, the production and, accordingly, sales of liquefied gas decreased by% 14 . but at the same time, the growth in gas production only increased by 11 percent. what it says. this suggests
that pipelines are working to a greater extent than the production and supply of liquefied gas. this is a plus for a pretty penny for Gazprom and a minus for the retrospective of data at a pretty penny for Novatek. Well, what are the options here. perhaps a political factor just so as not to irritate the Americans, less liquefied gas surrounds or maybe really based on the fact that the Americans are actively selling liquefied gas and dumping. accordingly, there are no such grounds for selling a large volume of liquefied gas. So friends, let's look at what is happening on the map in terms of changing the position on the RTS, a fairly confident rate of legal entities on the continuation of the growth of the RTS index and, accordingly, futures. Sberbank is
betting on corruption rollback here Gazprom is also betting on corruption rollback. VTB also do not want to allow VTB to grow. Well, look at vtb here in general a history of 4 6 kopecks. here is the fact that he broke through these values, or he will hang out for a long time in the area of this value, or he will go down. Norilsk Nickel Norilsk Nickel Here the stake is on the growth of Lukoil.
but here, of course, not such a large number and indicative, but nevertheless they are betting on a rollback on Lukoil. today corporate events on lukoil now we will see in detail on the schedule what awaits him. and so returning to the Russian news agenda to the Belarusian one. Now the situation with the Belarusian national debt is very difficult and judging by the echoes of these events that took place in the sky, the situation with the economy is very likely and the national debt of Belarus will only get worse in the near future. and so the yuan against the dollar has renewed its three-year maximum.
well, look here actually when considering economies that will add value in one area or another. because the Chinese economy is of course the economy of production of everything in a row the American economy is the economy, let's say, the export of ideas and technologies, then such actions usually indicate that someone is trying to protect their domestic market from a competitor, or this is the bet of investors speculators on who is the most it is advisable to invest. but here it is most likely that these two circumstances go hand in hand. so this is an interesting moment Robben move Robin Hood is planned to be held here. the very idea of such a company is quite extraordinary. most likely it
will go well enough at maximum prices then most likely there will be a landing because well, as if all American western businessmen, they want to create a business and then sell it very profitably . but in most cases, after a profitable sale, there is a sobering up and after that the quotes either sit down or go into a tailspin altogether. but here the situation is interesting because, first of all, there is cheap money that will go there. there must be a certain high. therefore, various options are possible here, but the most logical from my point of view is a very good placement, perhaps more or less strong growth after placement immediately. and then it would be logical for him to ask so it is impossible but such an interesting topic is why China is struggling with currencies. there is another
factor that is associated with the fact that the illegal mining of coal is increasing for a large experience of generating electricity just for. I think this is still not a key factor, the key factor is that the ridge allows you to make transactions uncontrolled by the regime. I think this is the main factor. perhaps what is associated with illegal coal mining, an increase in accidents and a deterioration of the environmental situation also has an impact. but I think this is not the most important and not the most critical factor. why China decided to fight the currency so suddenly . and then, whatever one may say, if the digital yuan launches, the availability of a currency loan will, to one degree or another, hinder the successful promotion of the electronic yuan.
and so the entire Western press is replete with a description of the situation with what happened in the skies of Belarus. I think right away the horror of horror will not happen, although the sanctions impose a variety of not only a ban on flights over Belarus. The prospect of this incident will lead to the fact that Belarus will receive a very strong blow to the economy, and in the very near future it is very possible that it is already economically sovereign, and it will probably be difficult for it to exist. So the key event in June for Russia is the meeting of Biden and Putin on June 16 in Geneva. Well, here I think it's rather a positive factor, because when they meet and negotiate, there is always some kind of consensus when they meet and the conflict flares up, it gets tougher, it's much worse. Therefore, we will still see how the events will develop in connection with the Belarusian incident in connection with what is happening in Russia, here all sorts of very acute moments can pop up even at the beginning of summer. but for now
I think it will be more positive than negative. that is, most likely something will be resolved, something will be decided. Well, of course, different points will be presented to each other . but in any case, if no additional incidents occur during this period of time, this factor is most likely positive for the Russian economy and for the Russian stock market and for the Russian ruble. so let's move on to the graph. China today is being corrected a little, but in fact there is nothing critical or scary here . the main thing is that it does not break back 5 thousand 205 thousand 220 if it is kept in this range does not refuse, then in the very near future we will see movement on the Chinese index, the target will be 1800.
So Japan is also growing today. further through the American index. which is remarkable here. Today there is a level which is 4 000 170 if this level is not broken down, we're going upstairs. and very likely today we will go to 4,230 and possibly by tests. here is this high that was previously achieved if all the same there will be 4 thousand 170, that is, here it is very likely that there will be a rollback, the target of which is 4 thousand 140 here and so on. yesterday it rallied slightly as it moved
within this consolidation below the 20 19 and a half close. that is, here at the cannon everything is within the normal range and so far does not portend any troubles here, and so on. the dollar index, but here, apparently, this failure has occurred and in the near future it will be pulled to 89 89 and one criterion that this event will not happen is a return upward movement and break through 89 87. if this happens, then it turns out there was a slight rollback before further start up. but now more factors still indicate that this movement will continue and so on. Let's see. but look at the most powerful movement, but at the moment it has not pierced two thousand 168, that is, there was a puncture and then immediately returned. this is a positive
moment, which indicates that the asset will most likely consolidate in the range, well, now it is already 3 thousand two thousand six hundred. here in this range, for a good one, he would have to bargain for some time there I don’t know a week a month before trying to rewrite the historical high. but since the ridge there can be a light movement of 10% 15 per day. and therefore it may not sit in this
range. there are certain alarms over the air. but taking into account that this rebound has occurred, if there is no repeated return and testing of 2006 65, then I think we will either be here to consolidate or even at an accelerated pace of pilipsin the maximum that has been reached. friends next oil weekly time. but here the situation is ambiguous, because
on the one hand, oil is in this century in consolidation, but on the other hand, there are a lot of reversal of signals that indicate that it should go lower since these signals are not implemented, then I think the most likely scenario is if it does not break through $ 60 for barrel all these movements are accumulation before the rise, which will lead to 75 67 right here to this value. if 60 still takes place, then in this situation we will land at first 50 there will be a stopping point then it is possible to move lower, again, taking into account the current situation. that is, the automotive season is something that seems to be somehow settled in India, I think it is still more likely and an attempt to continue further growth. for today here
I think a more probable scenario is an attempt to go from here to 10 70. Well, the data of stocks that are released at 17:30, they may cause a correctional pullback to 68. Again, if you follow the data that came out the day before, this scenario is most likely. but if, again, there will be 70 for some reason, then a movement may form here very quickly , at least an attempt to go down to 72 and a half. but the current situation, I think there is now a movement, an attempt to rewrite 68 9 and then a rollback to 68. let's see how it
happens in reality. so friends gave gold but here everything points to growth. the first pivot targets are 1921 and then, in general, this range is 1954 1962. The criterion for
stopping the movement in gold is a corrupt rollback and break through 1900 1894. if this happens, then we either go into consolidation or we will ask for more factors while more factors indicate continued growth in gold. friends further silver to silver. the target of the movement is at 28 mi 5, a little bit is left to reach the criterion that this movement is inhibited and stopped. These are kickbacks to work 27 9. Well, the movement in the chamber that began
with the same chamber, judging by it, stopped falling in him , this downward movement is very likely completed and today the continuation of the upward movement on the fret is an additional support and stimulus for the growth of Norilsk Nickel. so friends further Sberbank today are betting on a corruption rollback on Sberbank. Well, I, based on the daily schedule, while there is no corruption rollback here, testing and the legal value of 310 are more likely here, as soon as this happens , the road opens from here , the goal of which is 320 to close the GP and then leave to 343 if you switch to 4 hour tariff. here it is very likely that in the near future. Well, today or within two weeks there will be a closing of this gp, respectively, to close the gp, it is necessary to break through 308 and a half 310 of this range.
but the probability that this movement will occur in the near future is a very high criterion that this movement will not occur. this is a corrupt rollback and break through 296 293 if this happens, then here you can count all no magic growth and the closure of the gp will not happen in the near future. but again, I draw your attention to the high probability that this flu will be closed in the near future . so friends further Gazprom daytime . but look here, all these pullbacks are betting on the continuation of the rollback until 255 have broken through. All these pullbacks are nothing more than a set of positions. that's as soon as arises here. but really the tomb is already the goal here. the movement will be in the area of 241 and maybe even 224.
At the current moment, this movement here is only interpreted as a set of positions. Yes, he made a goal about which, by the way, I repeatedly drew your attention to the movement on 256 258, even a little overdone. and now the situation is being resolved here if it is consolidated, further growth will go. and already here we will talk about how to close those maximums that were in 2006-2007. Yuri are betting on a correctional pullback, and here it is very likely, judging by the change in position in the morning, there will probably be a movement whose target is at 256. This may well happen now. you can not do it this way. then GMK Norilsk
Nickel daytime. here is an attempt to reduce. but what a moment. are betting on the growth of the GMC and at the same time the price on the fret is reversed . so what is the likely
outcome here . now at the moment it has support at 26,426,250. if this range is not broken today, if we are kept at the current values, then growth will come from here . its first goal is 27 thousand 600 and then, accordingly, the rewriting of the historical maximum of 28 000 200. If, nevertheless, a legal one arises here, then our goal will be the green line 25 thousand 230. if we cross over Norilsk
Nickel, then we have a reversal here and this reversal will be implemented if it does not break through 26 1550 26 thousand 500, that is, the target is slightly higher than at the bottom. and here if we do not break this value for today, either from the current values or after the continuation of the decline to this level, a reversal and the target of the movement arise here . from here it will interrupt this value and try to start moving up. Yuri are betting
on the growth of GMK. Vladimir is turning around, so there are more factors here that we can get a turn and move upward somewhere in this range . друзья далее лукойл сегодня масса корпоративных событий по нему но и здесь по лукойлу предполагается все таки по дневном фреймут движение с целью 60 тысяч 136 тысяч 140 в идеале сходить на 6 тысяч 300. так вот младший фреймут указывают на то что все таки произошел разворот вниз и по этим крымом будет формироваться цель движения вниз на 5 тысяч 770 сюда. но обращаю внимание здесь ситуация
следующая если у него уровень который 5 тысяч 905 1850 для того чтобы произошло это движение вниз необходимо пробить этого уровня. если этот уровень не пробивается то он переводит дух и отсюда уходит сначала на 6 тысяч 130 потом на 6 3300 друзья далее компания петропавловск. здесь масса масса всего интересного и всякие всевозможные там просто вообще как санта-барбара эта кампания ну там вроде бы ситуация как то стабилизировалась связи с теми событиями которые идут внутри компании во всяком случае есть основания полагать. и плюс рост цен на золото. ну смотрите здесь идея на ближайшее время очень простая есть у него уровень который 26 если не будет отката с прибытием этого значения у нас по нему цель движения находится в районе 30 рублей 29 с половиной скорее даже 30. то есть пробить вот этого локального или исторического максимума.
и соответственно попытка тестировать 30. поэтому в ближайшее время если здесь не развивается движение вниз пробить 26 то у него есть все шансы отсюда начать постепенно расти. первая цель это 27. и потом движение к тридцатку. друзья далее вопрос был по ну смотрите
здесь несмотря на то что у него есть потенциал движения и переписывание этого максимума я бы все таки сейчас эту бумагу не трогал потому что с моей точки зрения она ресурс движения наверх весьма вероятно. выработала либо от текущих значений либо может быть все таки до битья будет. она либо начнет сейчас консолидироваться либо пойдет вниз. я думаю что она то движение которое здесь могло произойти она в наибольшей степени отыграла.
так друзья отдали русгидро восемьдесят две копейки все таки пробили. не очень хорошо. и здесь намечается разворот информации с целью ухода на 77 с половиной. но если переходить с недельку на дни здесь картина достаточно хитрые получается потому что это движение оно несло в себе цель собрать стабфонд который где то в этом диапазоне и находились. поэтому если не будет повторного задержка
с целью потеснить и пробить 80 с половиной то это скорее всего будет трактоваться как просто высаживать пассажиров перед набором позиций и уходом на переписывание %7,7. но если это движение повторяется то здесь уже все и наиболее вероятно будут спускать на этот уровень. друзья здесь если переходить на часовые вообще отличная ситуация получается прямо на сегодня что называется тема если не возникает дальнейшего движения вниз и по 8 с половиной здесь более короткий стоп нежели на дне нефти то соответственно все это движение оно ведет к отскок. и цель этого отскок от движения сюда на восемьдесят три копейки и закрепление на 83 копейки уводит на переписывание этого локального хаи 84 49. так друзья тгк 2 меня очень просили рассмотреть неоднократно дневной разворот информация цель движения по этой разворот информации находится первая цель движения здесь 0 0 44 58. и следующая
цель движение если здесь закрепляется находится на 0 0 46 49. в каком случае это движение не получит развития оно не получит развития если будет сбой значения 0 0 41 68. если здесь возникает то эта бумага начнет председатель цель движения будет 0 0 39 60. ну конечно бумага не очень ликвидные и с моей точки зрения такие инструменты они достаточно опасны друзья все основные моменты основные новости основные инструменты. если вам понравилось подписывайтесь на мой канал мой телеграмм канал удачи всего наилучшего.