Why The U.S. Is Running Out Of Everything
We could be on the cusp of a global apocalypse fungus affecting rubber producing plants has destroyed 10 Percent of global supply. Rubber is increasingly hard to import for some industries. So what's the problem here? Well, it's multiple factors. The concern is that there's literally not enough sand on coastlines in a context of rising sea levels and increased storms In 20 20. The birth rate dropped to its lowest level in thirty five years To continue to grow. We need innovators, inventors and as we have fewer children, we will have fewer of those With seven point eight billion and counting people on the planet. We are stretching the
carrying capacity of the planet. We know that we're breaching certain boundaries. The coronavirus pandemic has sent supply chains into a tailspin. First, it was toilet
paper. Then it was ketchup, packets, gnomes, semiconductors. Now it's rubber. Multiple factors are leading to a major rubber shortage around the world. This could be
getting a lot worse. We could be on the cusp of the apocalypse To ensure an uninterrupted supply of natural rubber from the few regions of the world which grow. It is a major concern of every world power. Most of all, the United States, The global natural rubber market was valued at nearly $40 billion in 2020, But the rubber is really continuing to increase. One analysis predicts the rubber market could be worth nearly sixty eight point five billion dollars by twenty twenty six. Rubber is a critical raw material. Just think anytime
you're going anywhere by car, plane or even by foot, you're using rubber. But rubber is also used in your personal protective equipment like gloves and masks like the elastics that stretch behind your ears. Plus, it's used in literal rubber bands. And then there are hair ties, underwear erasers, condoms and more rubber ducks, though those are plastic. It's used in more
than 40000 commercial products. You could call it the shortage. Some people are referring to it more as a supply chain disruption. Rubber producers are working against all odds climate change, disease, both COVID and a destructive fungus.
Not to mention the fight for shipping containers. So let's break down what exactly this all means for the rubber shortage. Before the coronavirus struck, the rubber industry faced challenges. But to start, here's how rubber is made. While natural rubber anyway, it's kind of like how you would tap a tree for maple sirup. Certain trees can be
tapped for liquid. Sap, also known as latex latex, is gathered from the trees by making a cut in the bark, collecting the runny sap in cups. By mid-morning, the workers are ready to begin their collection. It's called the heavier Brazilians, and, as the name suggests, is a tree that is originally of South America.
Ammonia is added to keep the sap from solidifying, then acid is added in a process called coagulation to extract the rubber. A few hours later, the mixture goes through rollers to remove excess water. Then layers of rubber are hung over racks to drive for a couple of days before being folded into bales for processing. There are synthetic rubbers.
America's synthetic rubber problem nears a solution, but sometimes It can't be swapped out for the real thing because of natural rubbers. Particular properties take airplane tires as an example. Got to be 100 percent natural rubber, and most natural rubber doesn't come from the U.S., not even North America. In fact, most of the world's natural rubber 90 percent of it comes from Southeast Asia. Thailand, specifically the largest producer, The U.S. imported one hundred
and forty dollars million worth of natural rubber in March 2021 alone. Most of that rubber comes from independent farmers in Southeast Asia, also known as smallholders. Eighty five percent of the natural rubber that we have in the world today is produced by smallholders. So these are families that or work on lands that are usually one to two hectares in size.
This means that one to two soccer or football fields Those families of farmers are at war with diseases destroying the crops. Fungus affecting rubber producing plants has destroyed 10 percent of global supply, but personal autopsies in the use of carcass trees were only like eight feet apart. And they're all clones. So there's very little genetic diversity. So is a bunch of identical twins. For miles on end, so of course, if one gets a bad disease, they're all susceptible to it.
There's no immunity. It's a desperately sensitive system, And farmers face the impacts of climate change on their business. Extreme weather events last year had a significant impact on that loss and production. But you know, if you've got major floods, you're going to. You trees, you know, you've got tsunamis and typhoons, you know, again, major major issues on on supply. Farmers have to be strategic about planting their crops.
You have to plant a tree and that tree takes four to seven years to mature before you can get rubber out of it. So if there's not enough careful planning and enough resources that are put into replanting, then we see what we've seen in the past years that you have a cyclical nature in the availability of rubber. So basically, the prices are low, right? What happens is that people don't plant because it seems that there is no business case for rubber. At a certain point, demand keeps increasing up to a point where prices start picking up and people start planting rubber a lot. But that rubber
doesn't come into fruition until four seven years after that. And when it comes into the market, then you have a slump in prices. This causes rubber farmers to face unreliable income streams that makes it hard to afford resources to fight off those diseases. Rubber stamp is really being paid like two dollars to six dollars a day. You know, that's not a living wage. There was no money left to improve the health of the plants. You know, there's no
money left for fertilizers or for proper tree maintenance. And then COVID 19 scrambles the supply chain even further. Now, demand for rubber is spiking. Part of the reason car tires The tires is by far the largest consumer of natural rubber.
But what really matters is how much are people using tires, Yeah with food deliveries and, well, not just food, but goods in general, we are using tires more and more. Manufacturers have told CNBC that they haven't been affected yet. Tire maker Goodyear telling CNBC, We are not currently experiencing supply limitations. I got the semi thing already going. But how about rubber? We got enough Yeah, you know, Jim. Short answer is we do. We never have had a problem of getting supply of that natural rubber. So it's, you know, it's
something that's always out there. A lot of speculation going on. I can never say never about something that could happen to Southeast Asian rubber trees that we haven't been affected by. This obviously very, very difficult overall. Global supply chain disruption And now shipping containers are hard to come by.
We're hearing that rubber is increasingly hard to import for some industries. So what's the problem here? Well, it's multiple factors a lack of shipping containers bottleneck caused by the Suez Canal and a recent surge in demand from end users. Supply chains are very much at capacity at the moment during COVID. The sheer fact that
because people are home and the way the things are working, the shipment of goods has increased. And since most rubber comes from Thailand 15000 miles away, the shipping delays have caused businesses to find alternative routes. Consumers who buy direct in Southeast Asia have been utilizing air transport to bring natural rubber. Those fifteen thousand miles from Southeast Asia to the United States, Plus supply problems can be traced to processing plants, which are also known as OEMs.
Original equipment manufacturers. Some OEMs shut down due to COVID outbreaks. Consumer element of the business, especially because of the OEMs, of course, shutting down significantly in 2020. But that's also bouncing back quite well. Now, industrial companies are thinking about rubber innovation.
I think our goal also in the mid and long term is to continue to invest in technology, also to put in parallel other other way of synthetic rubber or other ways of really coping with this potential disruption. Not just companies, but the Biden administration, to very Much into this critical material supply chain security and really is really U.S. security is homeland security Of all critical and strategic materials. Rubber is the one which presents the greatest threat to the safety of our nation. We don't have rubber. We have no security besides security.
The U.S. simply also has to meet demand. Some scientists see opportunity here. Dr. Cornish at Ohio State
University is developing rubber from plants. She's still two to three years away from Getting this to market, and the goal is to make the US initially independent, you know, so that they actually have our own natural rubber supply in the states. And so we're not having to import it all from the other side of the world all the time. Cornish and her team, both at her startup and at Ohio State, are working on sustainable solutions to growing rubber in the U.S.. Turns out, rubber is harvestable from dandelions.
That you see the latex coming out of the roots, their system that I developed at the university, where you can grow the dandelions hydroponically, cut the roots off, grow them back down, cut them off, grow them back down, cut them off, and you get a very highly productive system for rubber production. But for the U.S. to be a real rubber player, it'll take a lot of time, commitment and cash.
Somebody has to come up with the money to build that vertical farm. Those things are really expensive. It's like a million dollars for 10 Acre Farm Vertical Farm with 12 layers. There also needs to be processing plants, and Cornish says it'll take a $40 million investment to make that first processing plant until rubber innovations hit the market. The U.S. and the rest of the world, for that matter, will stay dependent on Southeast Asia for natural rubber.
The issue is who's going to have to bear the cost of this? And my hope is that we are not going to see the farmers paying the cost of this disruption. The industry has got to understand that prices are going to go up, but that for the health of the industry, they need to go up and stay up. We really put our efforts to ensure that the farmers that are producing these commodities, that we support these farmers in their countries to be able to carry out this work in a dignified way and to ensure that they can make a decent living out of the work that they're doing to producing these commodities are so important for keeping our standards of living in the countries where we can benefit from the wealth that we have. You may think of sand as part of your beach vacation, but it's used for more than just sand castles. It's a commodity like oil and copper and gold.
You look around you. Everything is made of sand. It's a pretty crucial commodity.
And even though sand can be found in nearly every single country on Earth, we could soon face a sand shortage. Turns out, sand is only second to water as the most consumed raw material worldwide. Sand mining is the largest mining industry in the world, and yet it flies under the radar, largely unregulated and unknown. All society is basically built on sand on how come there's no monitoring on that? And how come people are ready to kill someone else for sand in some region? It's used in construction like critical infrastructure, and President Biden is diverting a lot of his attention to America's infrastructure.
Sand is also used in chemical production, water filtration, fracking and, of course, glass. So all of your windows, computers and cell phones. You know, it's literally everywhere. We're driving on it. We're sitting in it. We're looking through. It's
absolutely extraordinary and really starting to be concerned about what happens if we don't have this anymore. Sand use around the world has tripled in the last 20 years. That's far greater than the rate that sand is being replenished.
One of the biggest sustainability challenges of the 21st century, simply because of the scale of the problem, the more I learned about it, the more alarmed I became. So the world is facing a sand crisis, and that's a problem. I know what you're thinking. Yes, sand is everywhere. How can there be a shortage? Actually, in some places, the world was running out, and it's such a hard concept to get your head around because you think of coastlines and expanse of deserts and just see so much of it. But to think of it not being there, it is very, very challenging.
It's a classic example of the tragedy of the Commons, an economic concept where everyone is incentivized to keep consuming a natural resource even if it ends in overconsumption and ultimately the total depletion of that resource. Is it a crisis or not? And that's one of the hard things with this topic that it's a problem that manifests in very different ways and very different places. So I bet you, if you were in a community where sand mining is going on like this is not a surprise to you at all. I grew up in Bangalore, in south India. As I grew up.
I constantly read reports about rivers being decimated because of sand mining, and at the same time, I saw hundreds and hundreds of sand filled trucks flying up and down the roads in the city of Bangalore. That was when the city was being transformed to the Silicon Valley of India. Basically construction boom happening all over and all that sand was coming from precious places. Construction has caused a steep increase in demand for sand, and a lot of sand is being extracted from oceans and rivers. Not just shortage in the market, it shortage in the natural environment that has to be talked about. The concern is
that there is literally not enough sand on coastlines in a context of rising sea levels and increased storms. Sand crafted by water is more valuable than desert sand, eroded by wind that makes desert sand too smooth. It doesn't bind together, as well as other types of sand. Sand sourced and extracted from sea beds, coastlines, quarries or rivers is more angular, so it locks together.
And that's important because this kind of sand is a key ingredient in cement and concrete And concrete is made up of 65 to 75 percent sand and gravel. Then there's glass, sand, gravel and rock crushed together or melted down to make the glass used in every window. Computer screen and smartphone Glass is about 70 percent silica sand, so there are very specific types of sand that are required for specific uses, and these places are limited.
Even the production of silicon computer chips uses sand, but extracting sand can damage the environment. Extractions of marine sand, coastal sand beach beaches the worst and rivers is something that is leading to tremendous environmental impact for oceans. Well, imagine you scrape sand off the bottom of the ocean that's going to affect the microorganisms that live in the ocean floor. That's going to affect the fish that eat the microorganisms and then the fish that eat those fish. Basically, the sand removal affects an entire ecosystem. Sand is the most extracted resource in the world by volume, surpassing even fossil fuels. Actually, even
extracting oil and gas uses a lot of sand, like in fracking. And yet sand has been easy to ignore. Essentially, it's invisible in our minds and in the way that we manage the resource. We don't think about it like a strategic resource. And yet it is everywhere in our societies and our economies. And as a result, we've wasting these resources. And in 2019,
we produce this report, which was submitted to the United Nations Environmental Assembly, and it was used for making a new resolution on global mineral governance. And it was adopted by all countries. And it is the first time that countries recognize that we have a problem.
We sent this concept of panicking. It reminds me a little bit of Greta Thunberg talking about, I want you to panic. I want you to panic. She was talking to the World Economic Forum, and it didn't quite go that far. Panicking will never be a solution. We will need sand
forever. It's something that we need a lot, so we need to be much wiser on the way we use the resource. Right now, it's not really possible to monitor global sand use. We just don't know enough, we don't have that global picture or that holistic picture of the extraction sites, the extraction volumes, where it's coming from, where it's going to, how it's being used, But it can be measured indirectly. Construction is the biggest demand sector. We know that
there's A very, very good correlation between the use of sand and cement. The U.N. estimates that four point one billion tons of cement is produced every year, and it takes roughly 10 tons of sand to create one ton of cement. Do the math and Puts you one billion tons of sand and gravel. That's enough to build a wall nearly 89 feet high by eighty nine feet wide.
That wraps around the planet every year. And that's just sand used in cement production. Demand for cement is driven primarily by China, where construction is booming.
In the last two decades, the amount of sand that we've been using has been multiplied by three. More than 55 58 percent is being used in China. Part of the problem is some countries don't have regulations in place, And then you have people who take sand from the beach, take samples from anywhere because they have to make their living. If you have a shovel and an access to a truck, then you make you an entrepreneur, you're taking sand and you're selling It in some parts of the world.
There are even sand mafias. Also, mafia, it is. It is a problem, that's for sure. So in some countries where the governments, the policies do not exist, it's not even illegal to take sand.
Plus, the world faces a rapidly growing population. By 2050, the world could reach nearly 10 billion people. Africa is going to see its population doubling from now to 2050. People are shifting from their villages to join the cities that will request more infrastructure in the cities. All of that will request a lot of sand. Sand can't be extracted or sourced sustainably to meet demand from a world of 10 billion people without effective planning and regulation.
If your local government, you need to have a solid land planning, identify where the sand and gravel should be extracted. The challenge is understanding where it's OK to take it from and how Much, so it's important to plan ahead and to plan plan alternatives. It's a time for innovation in this area. There's no one size fits all solution for the looming sand crisis. We need many solutions that you know will also work together. It's not going to be like one alternative material is going to make the difference. I think
it's going to have to be a big group effort, a big push collectively to figure this out. Finding alternatives to sand, including recycled materials, may help. We can recycle concrete so that we're not wasting that by dumping these resources as a waste. Because it's not a waste, it can be recycled.
Current economy is geared towards mining this material at extreme cost to the environment and to society, but that isn't factored in. We kind of build things and then at the end of life, we simply toss it in the landfill. So it's a very linear economy. But changing this to a circular economy can be a significant solution, and the circular economy is a way that keeps materials in use for longer. We can improve extracting in a better way by doing environmental impact assessment prior to mine.
Then mining in an appropriate way, respecting social and environmental conditions. Then we can reduce the amount of sand by being much more clever on how we use it. So that means planning for longer term in terms of having a building that is not done after 20 30 years, we expand that to 50 60 years. Sand is a finite resource. Every time we remove sand from the ecosystem, we are taking away critical habitat.
We are taking away coastal security because sand along the coast acts as a stone buffer. So when we extract sand, it comes at a cost and this needs to be really, really balanced with the needs of future generations. Having children is the ultimate vote of confidence in the future.
It's you really believe in what your opportunities are going to be going forward. You're very certain about what your future looks like in this quarantine time. That's the last thing that we can say. Mothers typically talk about the more children you had as bad for their pocketbook. What we learned from the Great Recession is that every one percentage point increase in the unemployment rate reduces births by one percent.
Despite speculation of a surge in quarantine babies, the U.S. fertility rate is actually shrinking and has been for a while. Births have been falling for the last almost 15 years now at this point. Millennials have less financial confidence than the generation before us. Living through our second once in a lifetime recession has made big financial decisions like providing for and creating a brand new human like mine. This here, Sydney quite difficult.
An I've got two little kids, so I'm pretty concerned for them. Plus, there's a prevailing ideology that large families are a drain on the environment. The costs of ongoing economic growth, as it's currently designed, are causing damage to planet and people.
Meanwhile, baby boomers are retiring and aging out of the system. If you have an economy that since the end of the Second World War has grown based on consumerism, what happens when all your consumers are old and they have everything they want? So is the U.S. running out of people? And what impact does population size have on the economy to maintain the current population size? Every woman would need to have 2.1 children. This is known as the rate of Replacement, and the point one is because not everyone goes on to have children themselves, and there's some child mortality in the United States. The total fertility rate that measure is now around one point seven. The total fertility, or birth rate refers to the actual number of children each woman is having. Currently, there are
nearly seven point eight billion people in the world, over three hundred and thirty million in the U.S.. Through fertility alone, we would expect our population to start to decline if that rate is sustained for a very long period. People think, for example, that fertility is out of control.
Well, the truth is it isn't. I mean, if you take a look particularly at millennial fertility in the United States, it's down to one now. The American birth rate is well below replacement rate and continuing to decline. Although declining fertility rates can be a leading indicator for a recession, it is more often correlated with increased education and opportunities for women.
But female workers add a lot to the bottom line. According to one study, if women entered and stayed in the U.S. workforce at the same rate as they do in Norway, the U.S. economy would be one point six trillion. Larger American women now are having fewer children than our mothers in twenty twenty. The birth rate dropped
to its lowest level in thirty five years. There's also been a huge decline in teenage births in the US. What's clear is that there are less unintentional births than ever before.
In addition to the decline that we've been seeing in fertility, there is another trend that's happening underneath that, which is an increasing age at birth. It's more like in the late 20s or 30s or something. Now, compared to during the baby boom, it would have been 20. It used to be, you know, uncommon to see a 40 something year old woman who is now planning a pregnancy. Now that seems to almost be, at least for us, a norm.
Women have changed the lives that they want to live. When they have more of a decision to make about the type of family, they're more empowered to make the kind of decision they want to make about their family. And when they make that decision, not for everybody, but for most people, it's fewer kids.
So women are waiting to have their first child longer and then their subsequent children. What's sort of remains to be seen in this area is the extent to which the decline in fertility that we're seeing is really a delay of births so that these declines for women in their teens and early 20s will be made up later when they're in their thirties, or whether this is a permanent reduction in their lifetime fertility. The pandemic may have accelerated this trend as people are less likely to have babies in uncertain financial times. That might mean less
American born workers, consumers and students. However, that could work out well for babies like Sydney when she applies for a job in 20 Years at the end of the day. The fewer people you're competing with. The easier things are for you there is that in terms of the upside. But, you know, I mean, who knows, maybe one of the kids that isn't born is going to cure cancer would have cured cancer. Population size and fertility rates should inform how we plan for the future and how we think about social programs.
For example, if there are less younger workers able to pay into Social Security the way it is currently set up, the funds will run out in my lifetime. So in particular, you hear people talk a lot about Social Security. That's a system where current workers support current retirees. And so as the population ages, we have more retirees, but fewer births. People are worried that that system is not going to be sustainable and there are other programs that face that challenge. There are also concerns about economic growth to continue to grow. We need
innovators, inventors, workers and as we have fewer children, we will have fewer of those those inputs into economic growth, You know, but that actually has important implications. Even before you get to that. I mean, like if we have, you know, a birth decline now means five years from now, you know, it's probably is not the great time to be thinking about school construction, for instance. I worry about people who would love to bring kids into the world, but just feel like they can't, that the costs are too high or that they don't feel good enough about their economic security, their economic futures to be able to make that decision.
If you really thought about what was happening in terms of our population and what it looked like going forward, you change the way that you ask even ask questions about what the future economy is going to be. So as we have workers who are more productive, then you can sustain more retirees for individual, for each individual worker. Japan, which has had a falling birth rate for years, is a leader in innovation. Japan is when it comes to things like fertility and aging is the canary in the coal mine for all of us. The median age of Japan
is forty eight now. Their birth rate is down around one point four or one point five, and they lose approximately four hundred thousand people from their population every year. So what's the solution in Japan robots? If you want to talk about industrial robots or robots of any type, they're looking at all those types of solutions. Why it's not.
It's, you know, it might make for interesting science fiction or whatever, and we might think it's just a peculiar thing. But the truth is, it's a necessity. It can't be anything but bad. And the reason that
it's going to be bad is because robots don't buy, don't buy new outfits. They don't buy cars. They don't they they don't buy things. They're not consumers. They can help your productivity, but they can't help. They can't help the consumer situation, You know, at the end of the day, people matter. So the more people there are, the more economic activity there is.
If the main economic concern is finding new consumers, adjusting our interpretation of who a consumer is can help. For example, we can shift our focus to the aging population So economic growth is generated by people who are typically something like 16 to 60 in their prime working years. And if you ever if you get it shifted toward the top so that you have more retirees, as is happening right now with the baby boom generation entering into that phase or you have fewer at the bottom that are going to be future workers, then that upsets that balance. Now, I think what some people are worried about is that we may have both of those things happening at the same time.
So one of the biggest challenges that we've got going forward is to how how we can trigger that, that generational transfer of funds from the older population by turning them into consumers. The way we think about generational transfer of funds as we think about mom and mum and dad willingness the money when we need it faster. One of the biggest prejudices that we have in terms of looking at the economy is we only see old people as consumers. They're sitting in
all the best houses. They have all the money, they have all the pensions, they have everything. The single biggest power group in the economy going forward are older women because there's a lot of them and there's more every day. Women outlive men. There are always more boys going than girls in every country, except where there's an artificial artificial intervention. But by the age of 30 and most developed countries, there's more women than men. And then every year
after that, so it's not that old women outlive old men, which they do. It's that women outlive men in every age category. Once we get to middle Age, the U.S. can look beyond our borders for more consumers and workers. The easiest way to manipulate the size of the population is through migration immigration. I think it's important to point out that more babies is not the only way out of those problems, so immigration is an obvious way where we can continue to grow our population.
First of all, immigration policies work instantly. If you want another 25 year old worker, you bring in another 25 year old worker fertility prenatal as fertility policies are about, you know, 20 years from now. And frankly, for the history of the United States, it's been the huge American advantage. It's still is the shining city on the hill for most people in the world. If they're going to immigrate and we do surveys at Ipsos where I see this, the most popular place for people to immigrate in the world is still in the United States. There are still a lot of people out there looking for a new country to call home.
The UNHCR estimates there were seventy nine point five million forcibly displaced people worldwide at the end of twenty nineteen. Forty percent of those were children. There are also twenty six million refugees, half of whom are children.
What we're particularly concerned about is that every country in the world, wherever possible, can enable people to move to their countries and in particular can absorb refugees and asylum seekers. We have to retain that compassionate capacity. Many of those displacements are occurring because of drastic changes in the environment. The World Bank estimates that by 2050, there will be one hundred and forty three million additional climate migrants from just Latin America, sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia, so there won't be a deficit anytime soon. Since the publication of the population bomb in nineteen sixty eight, there's been a prevailing ideology that the world is facing a dire overpopulation problem. That's not true At the moment, with 7.8 billion
and counting people on the planet. We are stretching the carrying capacity of the planet. We know that we're breaching certain boundaries, whether it's climate, whether it's marine fisheries, whether it's freshwater, etc., etc.. Experts worry that the planet has reached its so-called carrying capacity or the total amount of people the Earth can sustain. If we think about the global population, there are projections that suggest the world is going to reach its max capacity sometimes within the next 100 years. And that's because while fertility is below replacement rate within the U.S.
and other developed countries, it is not elsewhere. So on net, we expect to see the world population to continue to grow for the next several decades. We do know that at the moment we're over stressing our planet and we also know that people want to choose to have smaller families when they have the ability, when they have the access and the choice, and therefore we can make positive progressive moves to take the heat off the planet and particularly in terms of climate change.
Project drawdown ranks family planning and educating girls in its top 10 solutions to climate change. Remember, though, that people in developed nations consume more renewable resources than those in developing nations. The Global Footprint Network estimates that if all the people on the Earth consumed as much as Americans do, we would need five hundred percent of the Earth's natural resources to sustain the population. For comparison, they estimate that if everyone used renewable resources at the same rate as those in India, we would only be using 70 percent of one earths renewable resources. But we see as countries develop, fertility tends to decline. And so we expect as development spreads around the world, that that will happen. And that's
why we project that actually populations will start to decline around the world sometime within the next hundred years. Global population is expected to peak at nine point seven billion by twenty sixty four and then fall back down to eight point eight billion by twenty one hundred. And Bangladesh would be a good example where through voluntary means without coercion working at the community level through women's groups, they reduce their fertility rate from seven to eight kids per woman in the 70s and 80s, down to two point two near replacement now. And that's had a really beneficial effect. The women
have become more economically active. They're doing stuff in their community. They're able to make choices.
They've taken the pressure off their environment. If you're thinking that the population is going to be 11 billion or 10 billion people by the end of the century, you've got real concerns about that. But what if I told you that the population was probably going to be the same as it is today, or maybe even smaller when if we're carrying the population that we already have and technology is going to continue to improve from everything, from agriculture to cleaning on our environment to transportation, everything that you can imagine then by the end of the century, I think, are probably going to be OK.