Walid Phares: US Strategy in the Middle East Till 2020: Will It Work?
The. Last time. That. Dr. Walid Phares spoke, here it. Was an exceedingly, dangerous, event. Some. Three and a half years ago. Because. It was one of the worst winter. Blizzards. That. Washington. Had ever seen. And. That. He was able to make it here alive. Soldier. On through, this terrible storm, and there were some brave. Westminster's. In the audience. And. That everyone got home alive though it took hours. Was. Very laudable so we've given him a break before asking him back and, guaranteed, better weather which I'm delighted, we have tonight. Now. As. You all know I think dr. Walid Phares was, a foreign, policy adviser, to two presidential, candidates. One. Of whom you may have heard of Donald Trump. The. Other one, MIT Romney, he's. Also, renowned, as a Fox, News expert. On the Middle East and, appears. Often, on there I needn't. Tell you. He's. Also clairvoyant. As. He was the only person to predict. A year before it happened. The. Arab Spring. Which. He did in his book the, coming revolution the, struggle, for freedom in the Middle East. Dr.. Ferris has. A PhD, in international relations. And Strategic Studies from, the University of Miami. Political. Science, degree from says Joseph in Beirut. I. Presume. And. A. Law, degree from the Lebanese University of Beirut and the master's in international. Law from the University Dejan. Malak, Lyonne. Now. He's taught political science, and. Middle Eastern Studies in, Florida, for many years at, the Atlantic, University. And he's, also taught here, global. Jihadi strategies. At the, National, Defense University. Where. I was occasionally, privileged, to sit in on and, learn from his superb, classes. Dr., Forrest's wrote. Six. Books. As. A resident, of the Middle East in Arabic, and, another. Five. When. He. Stateside. In the United States where he. Immigrated. In. 1990. Legally. Amongst. Those book titles, I told you one the other war of ideas. The. Confrontation. Becoming. What we already mentioned the coming revolution. As. It won't you won't be surprised, to hear as. Dr.. Farris is a native, the favorite that he speaks fluent Arabic. And. French. Please. Join me in welcoming dr.. Farris on the subject, of US strategy in, the Middle East till 2020. Will it work thank. You thank, you very much ladies and gentlemen thank you for. Being here tonight I appreciate. The fact that I'm going to be meeting with some of my good friends in the audience including. Current. And former faculty. At National Defense University people. Who work in the agencies, all, the agencies and, defense, but also good. Citizens, who have done great achievements. I've been, here as Bob. Mentioned a, few years ago. Through. Very difficult conditions. Blizzard. But. I made it and there were some heroes here so we we survived it. But. Here again I'm coming back and I was like to thank first of all formally dr. Riley for not. Just inviting, me but inviting, you and. Being. Really the center, of this wonderful, project which is the Westminster.
Institute. I know the previous leadership and, this leadership is doing great. And will do greater I'm, very happy to be with you tonight. Especially. After. You. Know many years where we didn't engage, and. Many things have happened I. Want. To go ahead and start, without. Longer, introductions. Because there are so much to cover, so. The only matter, you should be aware of is that you've. Got to stop me in 45 minutes and my good assistant. Brooke has. This mission, of stopping, me I know there's a clock, in the back because of the, volume, of. Matters. That, are have, been happening, in our happening so the. Good dr. Riley asked me if I can comment. About, the. United States policy, in general and. Strategies. In, particular between. Now and 2020. Actually when he asked me to lecture we were still in 2018. So. Now we are 2019. And many things have happened since, last December and. Now and. We are living in strange, very. Fast, times. You. Agree with me I mean the events, are like, a, espresso. Cellar a train very, fast by. The time you want to think about this one event that, happened, in your life or in the life of the nation then. You are already in the second event and the third event and I, am. Known modestly. That. My work my specialty, is to project the future events so you can imagine how difficult that, is while you are like, an SL a train going very fast and then you're going to think faster. Than the. Events that that's a challenge but this is something I love this is something I've been doing, modestly. And focusing, on I don't opine, that many talking has TV, on everything, I give. My opinion on the things and specializing. About. Or in. Regarding. Subjects, that have. Been following for the last I, don't want to scare you but 30. When. I was two. You. Know I am, I am, and that's legally, since my good professor, colleague, mentioned I, am a, 29. Year old American. If. I am I created in 1990, that would be my age so forget about the past. I'll, show you all the papers I haven't, so. Ladies and gentlemen, let's, go for it. The question is between now and 2020. Are. The strategies of the u.s.. Dealing. With the greater, Middle East's gonna. Be successful or not it's already difficult to address this issue because. Of the speed I mean, any strategy, we'll think about today by. The time we're gonna apply it will be September you know the debates the, Congress, we, had a divided city where divided everything it's. So different from the past, we. Can't we can barely have a national, security policy, that we have an agreement about let. Alone apply, it and the region is changing, they, were times. In history where. The region was I don't. Know if they stable, but static I mean. We would talk about the arab-israeli, conflict forever. 1947-48. And. About. 1992. The, Madrid conference, nothing. Really changed couple Wars, they. Change a little bit of the real estate but. It was the same it. Was I don't say funny but it was you. Know ironic, at the time and I was living in in the region to 1990. That when. I came to the states in 1990. I was prepared. For something I prepared myself for something and then I found something else. When. CNN would flash Middle. East crisis, I. Would. Say was living in Miami at the time which was my. First stage before emigrating to the United States, just, a joke take. It as a joke even if it's videotape. I. Enjoyed. Miami before I really came to, Washington. Middle. East crisis, to me was okay we're going to talk about the Kurds the Iranian, threat the. Arab-israeli, conflict. Egypt, scoffs you, know there were many things happening, it. Was only in the view of CNN, the. Israelis and Palestinians. That. Was the only thing in the Middle East that was happening, until. The, Arab Spring until, 9/11 then. The American public then the international community said wait a minute there. Are other conflicts. Happening in the Middle East and, the arab-israeli, palestinian-israeli. Conflict is, one of them one. Of maybe eight nine but. That was the view of academia, and media, in the United States so as, I, am going. To be traveling. With you through. The region and back. And forth to the White House foggy, bottom to the, DoD and look at the various approaches. To these conflicts, the, difficulty, is that, the. American public was not given the opportunity certainly. Certainly. Before the Arab Spring absolutely. Before 9/11. God. Knows during. The Cold War to understand. The. Players in the Middle East so. When.
I Came here, in 1990. I was doing my PhD. At. The same time teaching in Florida, and. And illustrate. With two examples very quickly let's say one example to make it faster I was. Assigned a class in Middle, Eastern Studies undergrad, at, Florida International University. Was my first class I was excited. Enter. The classroom and, I asked a question which I assume would be very simple we'll build on it and I. Asked, can anybody tell me where is the Middle East a. Young. Man with. A hat like this. Said. I know sure it's the other side of the Middle West oh. Boy. I knew I had a job for a long period. Of time. All. Right I'll tell the second story which is linked to it, then. A girl. A student, female student, stood, up and said no no sir she was laughing at the guy said, she. Was a girl. So slightly more intelligent and then she. Was jewish-american, so she knew at least part of them at least she said no it is Israel, with some Arab neighborhoods around. That. Was better we. Were making progress. Ok. So. We did have, and. I, lived, it but of course it's now known many people who are in the Middle East feel, relief studies field understand, that. During. The 90s, all. The way till 9/11. We had a, bigger, problem which is our public we. Had little information about the Middle East I'm not talking, about people like yourselves. You already know that's why you're here but I'm saying the. General, public had little knowledge and it's not the responsibility, of the public is the responsibility, of the classroom, of. Academia. And, I, argued. In. Many of my writings including, in couple, of my books, one. Of which was mentioned the world of ideas, that. If you have a problem, in. The. Classroom in, any. In. Any field but specifically, in Middle Eastern Studies guess. What's gonna happen, if. You dis inform, or miss inform, the, classroom. This classroom is going to produce graduates. Those. Graduates, are gonna go somewhere get jobs, so. From the classroom, those, graduates, are gonna end up in the newsroom. So. Whatever you are misinformed about by. Your professors, and teachers, and, whatever, academic, achievements. Books, and others it's, gonna follow them to the desks to the news desks, and they're. Gonna ask questions as incredible. As this young. Man I met when, I was teaching in Florida for the first time but he is was a beginner, oh by, the way you know ten. Years later, exactly, I met. This young man in the halls of Congress I said what are you doing here said I'm, in a committee I can't tell you which one. But. He had been transformed, he he. Got the right education, obviously he got to that committee so. The. Reason I make I'm, offering this introduction is, because. It is not easy, to engage in the world of ideas not easy to engage even in analysis if you have different, levels of understanding of, what we're talking about and. That's. The matter that I have been encountering, and experiencing. For. The last couple decades specifically. Since 9/11, you. Know when you go on TV for. Example it's a big responsibility. Because. You're looking at the camera and you know that there are millions of people on the other side and. Whatever. You're gonna say with, the minimum, amount of time you, are given, because I'm not the talking point I don't have an hour you have three four minutes and you're gonna serve you know you go, on TV and you know that so. What is it that you could put in those three four minutes on the one hand to tell the truth to, be factual especially. About the Middle East and also. To educate the, public on the other side it's really a challenge I may write a chapter in the next book about. My engagement. With the media dealing. With the Middle East so. The, second. Point leading us to the strategies, is, the fact that these strategies have changed. We're. Not talking about a strategy, as, during. The time of the Soviet Union would be 20 years long five six. Our, strategies regarding the Middle East in America, change, with, of course this is our system with the presidency so every, four years every. Eight years and even the eight years every mid. Term. Elections, and having other midterm, elections you know so. We. Change. Our. Policies, change we, have change, of majority in Congress, you, know I'm not lecturing on things you you know already but take it into, consideration just. Think of Bush, the first in the war in Iraq, then.
Think Of the eight years of Clinton. In. Terms of foreign policy I'm not I am NOT a domestic, policy, guy so I'm looking at foreign policy then. You have 9/11. And. Then. You're gonna have the. Bush. Second, ten, year of eight years and then Obama for eight years and. Then. The the mini two years of the Trump administration so. Those, leaps, if you. Add them, to. The changes, in the Middle East then you, see how challenging. It, is to a. Point on what would be our view as strategies, in the Middle East by 2020, and I was given the task by 2020, we will be in the middle of a presidential, campaign. Slash, election. The. Middle East also has changed, now, I know you have had wonderful, speakers, here I seen. The list topics, watched few of these videos so let me try to summarize. Very, quickly the, longest period, of time possible, so, it could get to what. I call the post 9/11. Or post Arab, Spring, period. Now. The Middle, East was not the Middle East, some. Hundred years ago right we are in 2019. 100. Years ago in 2019, they were constructing. The new Middle East. So. Few. Years before you, had France. And Britain, to. Agree, on sykes-picot, agreement it. Created, the Middle East before. That there was the Ottoman Empire for the previous four hundred, and twenty years, so. We are still, the quarter, a hundred years is the quarter. Of the life of one Empire. So. The legacy of these. Ageing, empires the Ottoman, Empire the Mameluke, Empire the embassy I could go on for another. 1,300. Years that. Still. Has, a way on. The culture, the, perception, the ideologies, of the, populations, and of their release. It's. Easier, to talk about the history. Of the united states of Australia of, Canada, and, of the entire southern. Hemisphere, because it's shorter. When. You talk about the Middle East you go back in time for, long you, know centuries, and of, course to some even thousands of years I will. Take the centuries, it's. Still long and. What what. I'm trying to say is that even. If we engage. In Iraq or, in Syria. Now. All. The, palestinian-israeli. Conflict. Or. The internal situation in, these countries it, is, not only about our foreign policy, so. We cannot go to the White House or Congress and, say what have you done you did not bring, peace to the Middle East you did not do the channel we are we, barely count in this there. Are long histories, long conflicts, long. Pensions. And at the same time a very quick evolution it's. All happening, at the same time. So. What. Has impacted, the region was. The previous Empire before the formation of the new Middle East, that's, the Ottoman Empire it was a caliphate, and I'm sure all of you here in this room know what's the caliphate. So. When, the Ottomans, collapsed. You. Have two. Forces in the region, one. Force that wanted to go back, to. The status quo ante, meaning to an ottoman, empire to the caliphates, ottoman or ere doesn't matter those. Are. Known. As the. Islamic fundamentalists. That's, the easier way I would, call them the Islamists. Technically. Speaking we had two streams, of these Islamists, after. The collapse of the Ottoman Empire those. Who are from Sunni background. Then, those who are from Shia Weber. Those. Who are from Sunni backgrounds. Sunni. Su, n ni those. Rows, and, I. Wanted one thing since the 1920s. One. You. Know is. A return to the caliphate. Mr.. Osama Bin Ladin told us this matter. After 9/11. He said, we had headaches. Generations. Of Islamists. Really since, the collapse of the Sultanate wanted to bring it back so it's, as simple as that everything, the Islamists, Salafist jihadists, all the crowd that have been lectured about informed. About want, one thing go back to the caliphate that. Explains. A history, of 80 years of. Diverse. Salafist, and and, a jihadist at the, core of which may I say and. I know there are many. Experts, here the Muslim Brotherhood were. The nucleus. The. Core out of Egypt. Hassan. Al-banna and the rest as you know it so. The Muslim Brotherhood was the. Essential, core, of. The Islamists mostly Sunni. Network. Which evolved. Offshoots. Of offshoots, I'm gonna go very quickly here leading. To many, jihadi organizations. And at one point, al-qaeda. Rose out of that and. The second point Isis. Goes, out of that and, in, a few years from now maybe already soon, to be a post. Al-qaeda, post Isis, it is the ideology, that, has been, moving. The. The political, forces that identify, themselves as Islamist, alright so now we have one stream the, second stream is, the.
Other Side the Shia side and, these. Were known as the. Humanists. The. Followers, of Ayatollah, Khomeini, out of Iran 19. All right out of which came the Ayatollah regime Hezbollah. In Lebanon Mujibur and a-rod so on and so forth so let's, close the. Historical. Background by, saying out. Of the old Middle East's we, have two strains one, is jihadi Salafi, Brotherhood II whatever, we want to call it the, other one is Iran, regime, who - Hezbollah. Etcetera. What. The second stream wanted, and continue to want is to establish something, similar, to the Caliphate they call it a mermaid from Imam and MMA's. So, it's in Shia Caliphate, at the end of the day now. On the other hand you have everybody else. Dictatorships. Authoritarian. Regimes Arab nationalist, bosses, these. Are the ruling, dominant forces from. The 1920s, till recently and then. Next to that civil, society left-wing. Liberal. Etc. And on the very side, weaker. Elements weaker. Communities, in the Middle East who are the minorities. Starting. From the larger minorities the Kurds. Southern. Sudanese. Christians. In the Middle East Assyrians. Maronites, cops so on and so forth so that is, basically, the big picture of who are the, players now, crossing. The Mediterranean and, Atlantic back, to the west we. Had to deal. From. The time we didn't have a u.s. foreign policy in the Middle East at the time we started to have one I'm talking. About United States we, started to have one in nineteen as of 1945. Practically of course we had ambassadors, and consoles, in exception but from, 1945. We found ourselves. It's. Nice for an immigrant to say we found ourselves yes. Americans, obviously that's, your evidence. In. North Africa and the, British we're already in the. Levant and the French and the LaVon then they left and then we expanded, as United States and. Obviously, at the end of over - we had the cold or whatever the Soviets where we were stop. Them that's how we found ourselves with, the Shah of Iran, against. Nasser, you, see how fast I'm trying to go to get to the point because, I can't, leave anybody behind. - we're gonna explain it so to get to the point here. We. Had a pretty. Stable. Policy, as. US. During the Cold War. If. The Islamists, that the jihadists were struggling, to get the Caliphate, back what. Did we want what were we doing to. Bring the Soviet Union down so. It's pretty clear all our agencies, our think tanks our governments, or Congress's.
Were Focusing, on the Cold War making, sure that we contain on the one hand and then if you can win that war by bringing. The Soviet Union down the Soviet Union collapsed. By itself that's. A big debate that I'm not gonna go into because. Of economics, in others so from, the moment the Soviet Union, collapsed. The. Middle East's started. To go in different directions as long. As there was a cold war Soviets. The United States our clients, their clients, and we, clashed sometimes. Hot wars such. As the arab-israeli, conflict, or the Yemen conflict, or others and most, of the time cold war, one. Interesting, point, I will make during, the Cold War which, is a feature was a feature of US policy and Western policies, was, because. The Soviets, were, the. Priority. To us because. Their missiles were aimed at us our missiles would were aimed at them so that that's a priority we. Had to, engage in. Alliances. That. Were very. Counterproductive. But. We had to do it so I'm not a historian, tonight, but, I'm just reporting that we the. United States and NATO allies. We were, in many instances, the Allies of whom, Islamic fundamentalists, against, the Soviets, our. National security adviser, Zbigniew Brzezinski, was. Encouraging. The Afghan jihadist both Mujahideen, at the time to, fight the Soviets, with everything, they've got and, he. Told him he told them fight. Them lose jihad he used the term jihad that, was our national security advisers in my book. So. We. Got, out of the Cold War and now. We started to be surprised. By. Events. First. Of all the. Jihadist movements. Which. Was I want to say with us but the Islamist in general were were with us against the Soviets, now. We're on on their own and were, targeting, us because. Each one of these, big players has, a logic of its own. So. The Soviets, were down, now. The jihadists, in the Islamist and the Iranian regime all of them. Looked. At the United States as the, major problem, they. Confront. Because they wanted to establish a Caliphate they wanted to establish an mm8 and who is blocked in them either us or our allies, hence. The. Rise of al-qaeda throughout. The 90s. Starting. To strike at, the homeland including, in New York in 1993. Declaration. Of war 1996. Second, declaration, of war in 1998. Strikes. Against our embassies, in East Africa, and 19th, in August of 1998. Attempt. Over the Pacific, against. Airliners, for it was foiled attack. In Yemen and. Then they visited us on, 9/11, that prompted. The United States to move. Into the Middle East and engage in Afghanistan, and in Iraq which, we can debate till tomorrow don't have that time, so. We finally found ourselves in, Iraq. In Afghanistan and, elsewhere in the region, that. Decade, from 2001. To. 2011. A full decades. This. Is the first question I would like to address quickly preparing, ourselves for, current or current strategies. People what were our strategies, as us. What, where our. Strategies. We. Fought. The Taliban in. Afghanistan and, we have to be very. Frank. And honest in, any discussion, because now we are 19 years after that so. We defeated the Taliban will remove the regime no doubt about it it took us what 45, years 45 days. That's. The power of the United States it can administer. A massive, change. Somewhere. Between 30 to 45 days who. Brought down Saddam, Hussein, in about. Month and few days with, a million with a million soldiers army, we.
Brought The Taliban, who were terrifying, everybody, so army, to army, there. Is no one on planet, earth that can, defeat us. But. It, is what happened, afterwards. That. Counts so we defeat the Taliban in 45, days and we. Are fighting them for the following 19, years. Problem. French. Would say elia problem, and there is a. Tomorrow. Same. Thing in Iraq in Iraq we, defeated Saddam, then. We had to fight al-qaeda Iraq then we defeated al-qaeda in Iraq. Then. We. Did something. Which. Is to withdraw from Iraq in. 2011. And. Of 2011. And the, minute we withdrew. From Iraq without preparing. Who. Is going to be after, us in charge of Iraq, that's the, crops that's it then. What's going to happen is all the forces which. We were fighting, I'm gonna come back. Hence. We had Isis. Then. We had the. Iranian, militias, moving into Iraq it's. Not that they defeated, us we was drew. So. If we withdraw and it, won't leave behind us, a force. That is our ally. That. Is capable that. Is accepted, by the population. This. Is what we're gonna get and this is the parameter I'm, advancing for. Any future decision, we're gonna make in the Middle East I was. On. Fox Business channel with, Lou Dobbs the other day, Andrew. Was furious, about what we're doing in Afghanistan and. As. If the world he's. A good friend as if the world is divided into. One. We stay forever doing the same thing we fight the Taliban they, fight us and nothing, actually happen or, we. Are few years we pack and leave in the Taliban are gonna come do. You have any shred, of. Imagination. That tells you if we withdraw -, moreover from from Afghanistan, what is gonna happen, Tommy, ban are gonna see is probably about 80%, and. The. X Northern, Alliance will go back to where they are and, then. International, jihadi group will emerge from Afghanistan. If. We withdraw from eastern Syria and just serve the whole dinner in one shot if we withdraw from, eastern. Syria without, preparing, our allies. To take over, what. Is gonna happen and serious even in more complex. You're. Gonna have the. Iranian militia rushing in you're. Gonna have the Assad regime rushing in although. It's limping, but they will rush in you're, gonna have the Turkish, back Muslim, Brotherhood militias, rushing from the north and everybody. Is gonna. Assault. The Kurds. It's. Gonna be a terrible, war another terrible war and, it's gonna be a Syria divided, like Poland, for. Many many decades so. I'm. Concluding, on the method of our strategies. Defeating. The enemy is not the problem it's. The. Replacement of, that enemy that has been the problem. So. It's a question as the 9/11, Commission said, many years ago of not, just imagination. But. Of Education, and of. Engagement, with the forces on the ground so the. List is. Simple. We, have Syria. We. Have Iraq. We. Have. Yemen. We. Have Libya these are for active. Worse, so. What's the situation those four words in, those four battlefields, in. Libya. Us begin with the simplest, one in my view in Libya. After. Qaddafi, you. Have the West and the East, the. West is governed by a government, which, is on the one hand recognized, by the United Nations. On. The other hand sitting in a building on the seventh floor and all the other floors are occupied by the Islamist militias, so. The who and the. UN recognized, that the seventh mats of course I'm putting it in a comical way I don't know if it's seventh floor but, when. We speak with their officials, everything, is great we're recognized by the United Nations and. We are. The legitimate, rulers of Libya. But then you go down literally, speaking this time to the street in front. Of that building, the Prime Minister is building it's ruled by Muslim Brotherhood jihadi, what, kind of Islamist. Cocktails, there exists, and. They rule that, of Libya backed. By Qatar bagged by Turkey it's, not even a secret you don't need me to come and mention, it it's online on, the, other side of Libya now about 75, 76.
Percents, Of Libya. Is ruled by, an. Organization. Of former militaries, and new militaries known as the Libya national, army. Which. Is under the command of Field. Marshal after. I. Know. The title was always an impressive. Reality. Is he's fighting the jihadists. He. Has pushed him all the way to Tripoli, problem. Is he's not recognized, by the United Nations. Egypt. Supports, him UAE, supports, him maybe, Saudi Arabia supports in France lacrosse, supports. Him. Russia. Is trying to move in. But. Russia asked him if he wants full, support, like us and he said no. But. America, is not looking towards me I mean we have no relation that's what he says so now. This is Libya and in. The next few weeks and months we. Will have as Americans to make a decision, to have a decision, regarding it who are we with on which side we. Are divided, I can assure you that through, the Congress, and through. The. Halls of the administration, we are divided, either between, let's. Choose the UN, let's choose after or let, them fight fighting, among themselves, that's, Libya I'll be happy to take questions two. Minutes later Yemen. Getting, more complicated. Yemen. You have the north of Yemen is controlled. By the Houthis. Not, the hood see he said the Houthi militia. Confused. With other militias, in Africa the, Houthis, are basically. Mostly shyah shyah and, they're backed by Iran controlled. By a Hezbollah, like, organization. June, the law so. The Houthis control, from the Saudi border all the way to the capital that they have seized they. Have pushed all the way it's like North, and South Korea, almost they pushed all the way to Aden to the south and then they were pushed back all the way somewhere. South of the capital so you have the North is pro Iran. The. South is too. You. Have the central south which. Is ruled by the president, of Yemen, Hadi. Who's. Backed by Saudi and who's. Backed. By let's say the United States international, community. But. They have a little problem and. I said on video, we. Live the government of mr. Hadi you have a significant. Component of the Muslim Brotherhood. This. Is something that the public, doesn't. Know much about in America, that's why I'm having a hard time on Twitter to explain what it is it's. LA the. East slash party, called, Reform Party is nothing Brotherhood back by. Haha. So. The. Central South has, booed guys but, with, them you have the. Brotherhood, the. Very south the, South South is actually. The old southern Yemen which. In the past was backed, by the Soviet Union. Which. Now of course have they have abandoned. Marxism, but you know they don't. Want to go back to the old days they want to form. Their, Republic, again they're gonna they want to secede now, these guys are anti. Islamists, our, anti. Human. Is Shia. Houthis. But. They are only backed by the UAE I know I'm making your lives complicated, tonight but I, want, to do it so. This, is a piano in. Yemen. So. The question now and I don't want to give an advice here to the government all registration, but the question is what. We're going to do about it are, we gonna be with the Houthis in the north of course not. We. Are putting the, toughest, sanctions on, Iran then. We're gonna go to the, the Houthis, and tell them you know you're our friends it's impossible. So. We, are recognizing, this Center the center center there will be president Hadi and and his allies president Hadi is okay but. That he has a problem with him those. Brotherhood, and those. Brotherhood are a problem, because they are going to be establishing an Islamist state we're. Gonna repeat the experience. Of Libya, and of Egypt then you have this their very self the very south south. Yemen Kappa has. No relations, with the United States it's, almost not Libya so, we have to make those difficult choices and, we don't have strategies, at this point in time unless, I am NOT informed and believe me I am informed, moving. Quickly to Iraq and Syria. Iraq. Is. More. Or less as you know already under, the control. Of the, progear onion forces, -. Independent. Politicians. -, the fact that the government is telling us look, we are with you we like your contractors. So. If they like our contractors. It does not mean really that you know they're pro-american. They love the contractors, so. You have elements in the governments that are okay but. You have more than half of the government and the large. Segments, of the Parliament that are pro Iranians. And. They. Control the country in, coordination. With Iran the. Kurds in the north tried, their bed for an independent, Kurdistan you remember a couple of years ago I. Did not work well because they pro Iranian, militias, surrounded, them and stop them so. The most reliable, allies. That we have in Iran Kurdish. Forces, in the north are, somewhat, surrounded. But they are pro-american, pro-western.
They'll Be with us Syria. Syria. I have already described. What the challenge is east. Of Syria is controlled, by the Kurds, we. Are there if, we, use. Them or we worked with them to defeat Isis Isis is technically, defeated, I agree. Geographically. Isis, doesn't have a sovereign entity anymore, but. Isis, is functioning. In - it's being transformed, into cells underground. So. The feature of an underground, is when, the upper ground opens. Up they're. Gonna come, back easy. You. Don't need a political scientist, for this is you. Know gangsters would make the same analysis. So, when you push them underground. And you don't resolve, the. Ideological, problem. They're gonna be three generations, to go up and then, of course you have the Assad regime which is more or less in control of Western Syria but it is in control of Western Syria Damascus in other cities precisely. Because the Iranians, are in Syria. Now. Who would that affect, if the Iranians, are in Syria. Hezbollah. Hezbollah. Out of Lebanon is the living, means golden, age happiest, moments because they leave, Lebanon, go, to Syria connect with the Iranians, and the Iranians, now, regime. Had. This highway, from Tehran. To Baghdad, to Syria. Assad to Beirut Lebanon they. Are at the maximum. Expansion, what would they bring with this maximum, expansion. Missiles. So. They are they. Are basically establishing. The missile or missiles base. In Syria, who, with that the nerve. Israel. So. We don't need me right you know the whole thing so the Israelis now are strategically. Nervous, about. The, number, of missiles established. In Syria. That. Is problematic, because if we withdraw from eastern Syria not. Only the Kurds will suffer but there will be that's, what I call this automatic. Movement. By, the Iranians, to fill the void strategically. Speaking and, the, Israelis will be you, know face to face with them that is not good news because that would be war. Lebanon. It will be the easiest thing since 19, since, 2008. Is, practically, under the influence, or the domination of Hezbollah, that will be the shortest of all of all matters now, since. Time is pressing us a mess. -. Oh no ma'am want questions and answers as well. 15. Minutes 15, minutes no. Way we, need 20 minutes for Rome the people of Rome. So. The Trump administration's, major, moves. Which. I have supported, but. I think we need to build more and faster. Have. Been the following, in. May of 2017. President. Trump went to Riyadh and he, addressed 50, Arab and Muslim leaders. This. Is something, now I can review I have been pushing for and, I want to adopt, from. The time of the campaign we. Need to have an Arab coalition. We. Cannot operate by ourselves, all the time everywhere. That's. Why in Europe we have NATO, although. We're gonna debate Nate do you have debated NATO but still. It's better than no NATO then. 27, countries doing, whatever, they want in, the. Region it is crucial, in my view to have a, regional. Organization that, would help us in multiple. Things, conducting. The war on the jihadi organization. We. Can't do it ourselves all, the time number two more, important, giving. Us the legitimacy, the, Islamic, legitimacy. To, D legitimize. The, jihadi ideology. Many. People do not believe in it I think it's still a must we need to have that push and thirdly on the ground we. Need to have contingent, we need to have forces who will fill the void because. Every region we intend to leave is not ready there. Is no readiness, so. He. Met them they, issued. Excellent. Statements. One is to form the coalition on, paper the. Other one was to do - its establish a counter. Terrorism. And extremism center, which is operational. But we don't hear about it too, much and, so, it, launched. Something and then it stopped. Now. I wanna be honest with ourselves it stopped because we were busy in Washington, for the last two years. You. Know with what with all these debates, and all these congressional stuff, under, Republican, under Democrat now it. Paralyzed. In my view in my humble view it paralyzed the. Speed with which we should have gone over the past year, and a half at least. Because. Only now that, we are kind, of standing up and trying to move forward but we can we have little time that's, why your assignment, 2020, we. Only have six seven months of 2019. And then you know what's gonna happen in 2020. Election. Year. That. That's a different. Level. Gonna have you gonna have four years but we don't know what the opposition will do basically. That. Was one move the, second move was in my, humble, view that was drawl from the Iranian, nuclear deal now, I am. Very close to our European friends I. Had. One of the or co-head, coach share one of the organization's, of MEP s between Europe, and Congress and I know that across the Atlantic we are divided. The.
Europeans Believe most. Of the Europeans believe that the Iranian, nuclear deal was. A good deal that. It froze the. Build-up of a nuclear weapon, it. Allowed, the companies, to go to Iran, and then have business all of that I agree with us wonderful, but. There is some there's a black hole that has not been addressed, the. Nuclear, material, was frozen, but. Something else was not, frozen. Which is the acquisition of long-range, missiles, you. Don't purchase. Deploy. Acquire. Improve. Ballistic. Missiles if. You don't have intention, of using. Non-conventional. Weapons, do. Do we throw roses. With Lieberman, missiles it's, not for roses Valentine, Day its missiles. That, are prepared, like a forest of missiles, for, the opportunity. To be able years, from now to, acquire, the nuclear, device. And then the missiles will be ready the, Iranians, bought the. Most impressive, anti-aircraft, missile. System. Why would you do that because you are expecting, a strike, against you and why, we are you expecting, a strike because you know at one point you gotta be aiming those missiles you're gonna weaponizing those missiles and the air forces, in the region and beyond I'm gonna come to you I, know. The Iranian strategic. Mind, it's, very patient, so. Our. Friends of Europeans have a different view except. That on missiles, they are with us they are with the US on the issue of missiles, but on the issue of withdrawal from the agreement they're not so, we have that devote. Withdrawing. From the agreement, from the nuclear agreements, but. The Trump administration did, not mean that we, don't want any agreement, we actually. Want an agreement on nuclear. Or anything remember. That South Africa, and Ukraine after. The collapse of the Soviet Union they, rushed, to the United Nations I remember, that vividly and they said please come and help us we're gonna get rid of those nuclear weapons that we inherited, from the previous regimes, in the case, of Iran, basically. The. Projection, I have is that this government in Iran may not be there, forever, so. The idea of having, all the agreements with the Iranian yes but calm down let's, see who is in charge what. The social, transformation. In Iran are going to be I believe, that, the average age today, in Iran between let's, say 24, and below. Maximum. I, would. Say maximum. 26, and below are not, with that regime you see the demonstrations, the protests. The minorities. Kurds, Arabs so I, would. Have recommended an engagement with the civil society of Iran that's. The agent that's gonna change, matters. Look at Eastern Europe what's not long, ago what. We were building those missiles would the Russian you know to face the Soviets, it's was Lech Walesa baklava, fell the, dissidents, in Russia they provoked, basically, the collapse of the Soviet Union and of course an economic, mismanagement. By, the Communist Party of the Soviet alright. So, now we have those two, important. Decisions. That were made by the administration. Engaging. With an Arab coalition and, was. Drawn from the Iran deal, plus, putting, sanctions the, question is what is the strategy beyond that. We. Withdraw from the agreement okay, so what is, it that we're gonna do next, and here I'm gonna be a little bit critical because. Putting sanctions is the right thing to do but. To obtain a, specific, goal you don't put sanctions ex. Cathedra in, general and that's it you. Need to make sure that you're engaging with civil society so. That civil society under. These sanctions are gonna put pressure on the government of. Iran to change course change. Course or, change, address, you. Know one or the other that's. How changed, has been the case in many countries, including in Eastern Europe. Would. Regard the Arab coalition I, think. The. Arab coalition got, into trouble when it divided, between, Qatar, and Saudi and, the. UAE and others I, think the Arab coalition engaged. In in in Yemen where, at, the time where we were not ready we in America we're not ready for that I am. Not sure now. How. To get a solution for Yemen and how to get a solution for the divided, the Gulf but I am pretty sure that. If.
In. America, we have a unity, it's solid unity political, unity on foreign policy which, we don't have right now I think, we could make we, could prompt, a change in Iran it's possible I think, we could, help. A solution. In Yemen by basically, disarming, the militias that's how a solution, is you. Know you can't have a solution with militias roaming the cities same, is the case in in Libya, so we could have we have the possibility, of, putting. Strength, putting pressure moving, forward, if we are united in Washington, in the. Next that's, a year and a half so if the challenge is are. We going to be successful, between now and 2020. We. Are in, April. We. Still have really few months before December. So. The bulk of what we can do is going to be in the next six to seven months it, does not mean that after, the elections, we won't have the ability to move forward and I agree you, know whomever is gonna be in charge I hope my, penny that will be charged will, have four years but. If the question is between now and 2020. I would say there are matters, we could we, could improve, there. Are policies, we could apply very, quickly but. I, would. Look at those six to seven months as very challenging, in terms of being able to achieve all the goals that the administration, and a majority of Americans really would, like to see happening, I, want. To stop here if you, have any question I'll be more than happy. Thank. You for that, each, is very dear to me. I've traveled. There several times I've, traveled before. The changes doing the changes and after. The changes. You. Mentioned you are from the Coptic community I. Advised. Coptic, Association, for the last 25 years as, you know I've. Engaged. With many members of the Egyptian Parliament, this one the one before, met. Briefly with President Sisi with many members of their government, here and there so when. I address Egypt, there. Is of course the emotional attachment but, I'll put it on the side and I look objectively so what. Would have been the worst for Egypt in my view could, disagree would. Have been in if one Muslim. Brotherhood control Egypt periods, you. Know from Abdul Nasser who. Was our foe to. Set up who opened the the gates of peacemaking, with Israel to. Everybody. Including, Mubarak, who stayed there for 6,000, years I mean for. Thirty eighteen years. You. Know to the current CC. Government's if you, if you give me all of that I would say the only period that I was concerned about really, is a, one. Muslim Brotherhood controlled Egypt because it will transform, Egypt, and it did in few months Egypt. Was becoming an Afghanistan into. A, god-knows-what. So, think. I don't, say thank God he doesn't meddle in politics as you know but, thank. The. People of. Egypt. I. Couldn't. Believe my eyes when, I. Saw, this demonstration, of June, the, 30th, Union. Guys. Thirty, two, million. People. That's BBC, that's not Fox News BBC. Yeah. Because, they attack Fox News do anything it says that time we are attack BBC. Mainstream, said, 32. Million, people demonstrated. In the streets of Cairo, and other cities, people. Who are normal people, workers. Philippine. You, know farmers. Students. Artists, everybody. 32. Million people that's the largest, group of humans, who walk together on the face of Earth since. Adam. And Eve, so. It was impressive to, see. That when civil, society, has the ability, to rise. Against, this kind of threat no. Matter what happened immediately after. Because. Immediately after you're, not yet in Sweden, you're. Not yet and you know any of these democratic. Places, it's gonna take time I also. Praised. Those. Courageous journalists. In, Egypt who. Accompanied. The demonstration, because the demonstrators, without a voice from from. You know TV already, wouldn't have had this. Ability to demonstrate and I will say very clearly I will praise the position, of the.
Army Of Egypt which protected. Them, the. Obama administration. And, you know the entire supporters. System of the administration, said this is a coup the. Coup doesn't happen like that the coup would go worse tanks without people, crab, the president or the leader and establish, a military. Government, that's a cool what. Happened was a revolution. Which was protected by the army but let's be very honest, it's. Gonna take time for. Egypt to produce after one two three four elections, lot, of efforts. A fully. Liberal, democratic. Multi-party. Sophisticated. System and look what we have done we formed that thing and we are still not very at ease with it so. I, agree, with you that there. Are many things in Egypt that we are very attentive, to to, make Egypt, perfect or quasi, perfect, but. Where, the Egyptians are coming from lead it was literally at the edge of a cliff going. Into a Caliphate, like place. So that would be my humble opinion with regard each lady, I. Am. Currently formally, not advising. The administration, because I'm outside the administration. But. I'm sure here is my tweets. Obviously. He has, he. Has the National Security Adviser our. Good friend John Bolton and he. Has many, advisors including secretary. Pompeyo. And, he has many other advisors, some are inside the government some are outside the government I think the president is surrounded, many. Advisers and, I share a lot, of my strategic views, with the two I've named I mean I'm I'm happy, that we have Bolton, and Pompeyo and governments happier, than I don't I said in others but then previous views, that, existed, in the. Now. You are teaching me something I didn't know since your, background, has been in very, important. Agencies, okay. I. Agree. With you Russia's, role, in Syria specifically. Since 2015, has completely changed. Before. 2015. 16, 15, before 2015. Russia, wanted to maintain its bases and was. Even in negotiation. With the previous. Administration as, to how we're gonna coexist, in in. Syria but as of 2015, it looks like the. Putin, leadership. Wanted. To do two things number one grow. Their military, presence because, that's the only coast they have to have 200 kilometres of coast in the entire Mediterranean. You, mentioned, Libya yes they will be interested in getting another 300, miles and again that's how superpowers. You, know operate so. Far they have Syria, now. What. The Putin leadership, has done was to consolidate, what, they had they had no strategic weaponry, system, that exists in. Vanya's, and turtles and elsewhere and they, want something else which was not there before they want the Assad regime to be able to recapture all of Syria to connect, with all of Iraq and, to connect with Iran and Iran. Connects, with Russia through the Caspian Sea the. Russian, long-range. Bombers. Or, planes they don't come through the Mediterranean they actually fly over the Caspian Iraq.
Syria, And on to well, into the Mediterranean, so the ambition, of Moscow, says, 2015, are. Different, now they they believe, that we're not going to last too long in eastern, Syria that eventually we're gonna withdraw from Syria that we're gonna withdraw from Iraq and they're, gonna have this space going from the Mediterranean, into your life that pleases, the, Iranians. It's. It's it's you know it's, the same space, Iran's, long-term, goal as you know better than everybody, here, is, to project itself, all the way to the Mediterranean I wrote about it and briefed, Congress since. 2005. So. Iran, now, has a control, over Iraq. Over. Part of Syria, and of course poor Lebanon Hezbollah, so Iran and Syria, sorry, Iran and Russia have. Shared, strategic. Goals. In the region. Okay. Two questions I'm gonna summarize, quickly. Because. I know RT from before. Yes. I did not, spend. A lot of time on the arab-israeli, conflict. On. Purpose, no because. There are so many other matters. That we need to address and the arab-israeli conflict, is the most well known conflict. Every. Neighborhood knows the names of every city in Israel and or. If they're Arabs every, concentration. Of democracies. Of Arabs but let me say it clearly I think. That the Arab is really I wouldn't, call it arab-israeli, the palestinian-israeli. Conflict has, been static. Since. Madrid conference since, 1992. Nothing. Has really happened after that they, agreed, on concessions, to each other Egypt. Signed a peace treaty before, that Jordan, signed a peace treaty after. That even the PLO sign a peace treaty and then nothing has, really moved since 1992. Meanwhile. All the other volcanoes exploded. Everything. Else so. If you are in Aleppo and you, ask Arab. Syria, Sunnis what. Is your priority in life today the. Liberation, of Palestine, oh, I. Want. To bring down Assad regime I want to bring down the jihadis so each one, of these conflicts. Stole. Away from the palestinian-israeli, conflict the. Center of energies if you are in Yemen what, would be your priority, in Yemen stop. The the you. Know the Iranian, militias, stopped, the south so. On and so forth so by itself, the. Arab-israeli. Israeli-palestinian. Conflict. Caused. Narrative. Which dominated. The Middle East for many many decades by. Itself sort of crumbled, it to the one ethnic conflict, so what is the most discussed, matter today in. The arab-israeli, conflict it's the, American, the white house project. For a new Middle East which we don't know what it is I don't know what it is but that's everybody's, talking about it because that's the only hope for the, possibility, of a, resolution.
Arabic. NATO I mention, a little bit I think Egypt. Saudi UAE Jordan. Bahrain, and, others. Would like to format, they. Leave. Yeah. I said they, want to format Egypt has different views on the. So called NATO agreement. Egypt. Think that the priority, should be to, focus. On the jihadists in al Qaeda and Isis, and and those so. They saying, that we need to focus, on Iran so. We have a NATO going, in two different direction and the UAE wants to focus on both so. That's the best I can, summarize, with. A lot of stuff. Out there indicates, that he believes, at some point he, would be the future of the, world the leader of the new Caliphate what, is your take on that and. Is. That something we should be suspicious of this meeting that was sort of held, behind closed doors or is it simply one. Was little reaching out to another. And. Also the second question I have regarding. The Europeans, that in my opinion tend. To European, test run counter to everything the Trump administration believes, it whether, it's only not a kind of Lord what have you there, are there, seems to be a surge of new independent. I'll. Use the word conservative, parties, in Europe that are not necessarily. Drinking. From the same tea is very convenient is there perhaps hope with, those parties, that we will see a, different, opportunities. But the first question is, you want the first question first yes. I'm. Not gonna apply in on our members of Congress if, they are engaged, in domestic matters but. Since you mentioned a foreign policy matter then. Yes I will. President. Erdogan is not shy about his goals, he. Stated many times and clearly, and I'm surprised that a majority of Americans don't don't, see it don't understand it I'm not surprised that mr. Erdogan is making the statements, but, it. Doesn't appear very clearly here, probably. Because of our media. President. Erdogan and the Occupy, party or an Islamist party they're. Not shy about it when they stated in Turkish and, the.
Turkish Opposition, which by the way won, municipal. Elections, in Istanbul, and in Ankara which is today, we are different than a week ago, has. Been very vocal about these matters so Turkey has a very solid, secular. Quasi. Liberal, pluralist. Force. Which. Is not over which is not done despite the 12 years. Of occupation and, it was demonstrated now, it, doesn't mean that they're gonna take over government soon, but it means that Turkey has two forces the one in charge is an Islamist force and. Its foreign policy is to connect with other Islamist, forces including, what cut off and. Including before that with the Brotherhood in Egypt and. Now they are backing a function, in Tripoli which, is close to the Muslim Brotherhood am i adding anything, that you don't know or not available it's there the. Question that is more delicate is. The. Relationship, between our politicians, and in, that. Ensemble, of Islamist, forces I'm not surprised, because. Many, public. Figures. Intellectual. Figures academic. Figures and NGO. Figures, in the United States are. Also supporters, of the Islamists, movements. Is this, a secret, faith has. Been there since the 90s so. The. Fact that there are visits I mean if if American. Intellectuals, and academic visited Iran if. Some. Of our prominent politicians, visited Assad and if. I. Think a one, of the most prominent leaders, of one of our agents he said Hezbollah has moderate. And has non, moderate, I don't want to name him. I'm. Not surprised that many. Of our politicians are, in touch with what, I consider, Islamist. Movements, or regimes or radicals, not. From surprised. May. I asked you to repeat that question, I don't understand, and the second question if you may repeat. What. Okay. Thank. You for these three question I'm going to go as fast as possible. The. Annexation by Israel, of the Golan Heights actually, I will formulated. Difficult the annexation was done decades ago it's, the u.s. recognition, US administration. Recognition. Of that. Part of the Golan Heights by the way not the entire Golan Heights you know that actually, 70 percent of the Golan Heights are still, technically, in the hands of the Syrian regime may, be protected, by the UN in some places but people tend to forget about that it's the band of territory, that was acquired by Israel, through two wars that.
Has Been unexcited by the Israelis and recognized, by the US government that is our president our administration, as part of Israeli sovereign, if. You are asking, me about that I would say, this. Was a commitment, by the Trump, campaign. It. Became a commitment, by the Trump, administration. First. For Jerusalem, and second. For the Golan Heights now I'm at I began where you did not mention with Jerusalem and. Then. I'll come to the Golan Heights. Jerusalem. Yes, it created a, sandstorm. All. The, Arabs including our friends, and allies including. Many of my friends. Told. Me why would the Trump administration. Recognize. Move the embassy to Jerusalem, recognize. Jerusalem as the capital of Israel even. Before we formed this Arab alliance, and then we, could negotiate with them I some. Point agreed with, the vision that it's it would have been better to, create that Alliance to. Push, against, Iran push. Against, the Iran and then, come back and resolve that matter it looks that the president has a different, view, his. View he remember, he's a real estate strategist. He. Thinks in terms of, land. Swap and all what, comes with it as an. Agreement based on which he could. Try. To resolve the problem so, he. Made the statements, of I'm moving my embassy to Jerusalem, in that, statement that was a mini statement. That. I understood, and I hope that many among, my friends and colleagues would understand he said however the. Borders of Jerusalem, are, still up for negotiations. What, he meant for by that is that there. Is a project. Within, the project, that the Palestinians, should be encouraged by the Arabs first to. Accept, what, we call a transitional, capital, which could be a Buddhist which is a, suburb. Of Jerusalem, which, has a full, Arab, majority and then. The Israelis, will make the concession on the. Arab neighborhoods of, Jerusalem, to be part of the, W is some sort of lawyer's strategy.
So. Therefore at the end of the day though we moved our embassy, to Jerusalem, part of Jerusalem will become part of a theoretical. Palestinian, state to be so, that would be my only note I would, like to make meaning. That the file is not closed or. Negotiating. With me with the other side now, the two other questions are long I've answered the one on president, Sisi and, with. Regard. Believe. What. Water. Is the only question I won't be able to answer if I'm told I have only five minutes because water is, about, six, thousand, years or. Problem. And I'm coming from a small country where. The only problem is not water. Lebanon. Has six rivers it has snow it could you know it could give it, could give the entire region water and snow but I can agree with you on one thing water, crisis. In the Middle East is going to be with us for a long period. Of time and you understand, my conclusion. The. Great faith. I. Have. A copy. Of video with. General a star in it where, he is holding the. Leaked, minutes, from a meeting in Sudan, Bashir. In his cabinet, talking. About we will never allow half-heart to become the president of Libya and he's freaking out and holding it so with that background do. You think that the reason why the United States has, stayed away from half tar is because, of our attempts. To normalize. Relations with. Sudan. It's. A long shot but it's still a shot. That. Our foreign policy, establishment. Basically. Whatever. The Trump administration was. Clear. Intense. It. Worked, recognition. Of the, Jerusalem. Of the capital you, know you have to recognize and it was recognized. Backing. That say an, action. Of the US Army in eastern Syria they. Did everything. Else is up for grabs. That's. Why I mentioned the past two years were. Difficult because. The administration, was under pressure for a million thing that you know, what it is it had. Few points in foreign policy it followed thoroughly everything. Else I don't, think there was a trump. Policy on everything, but, on Sudan I wouldn't. Imagine that we would be with Bashir Bashir in, Sudan and he is a perpetrator. Of a genocide according to the ICC. Yet. We lifted, the sanctions and you were screaming about it for many many months so, let's see what happened now on after, were not clear on many, other matters we're not clear this non clarity, is not about the fact that we are against, or with we're, busy with with other matters so really, activists. And citizens who, are, very. Intense, about matters should make, their opinion known known, in Congress and with the administrate I see. The microphone. -. Thank, You Ali but to. Take. The privilege of the chair and asking, you a short, question. Yeah. Which. Will only require, another, 20 minutes. That. We don't have but you. Mentioned. The issue of the repercussions of. Turkish. Determination. Repeatable, day - by, the Russian. S400. Defense. System. Of. Course the, fact that I did not mention many. Things is just one. Hour 30 minutes. That's. What, two. Minutes. The. Aragon government, is, now. Sort, of courland in the region. The. United States is not supporting, all the, policies, of the Erdogan government right. They want to go in Syria, they want to disarm the Kurds they. Wanted to bring down and said we were not for these matters so, they've.
Gone Limited, its goals in Syria, and of. Course at the same time. Aragon. Established, this understanding. With Putin because. Of the incident if you recall there was an incident between Turkey. And Russia, and. Russia plum town on Turkey with everything in God and that's. A reminder of what we've done when we had the pastor detained in Turkey. Trump. With tweets, said. You know I'm putting two of your ministers. Designated. You. Know breaches. Of law so, his, position is very difficult, because he's dealing with two superpowers he. Decided that the I am, a member of NATO anyway, you. Know so anything I want from the US and NATO I'm gonna get at the end of the day but. Russia is very serious as, a neighbor so, he struck a deal with Putin, and that. Deal was about, getting, the weapons you know he's not getting from us. Creating. A balance of power in the region trying. To get an agreement in northern Syria so, that he came his own influence, inside Turkey, because what, he has promised his public. Is basically. Turk. Is going to be tough, Turkey is going to be influential in the neighborhood on the other, hand his economy, is not doing that well inside, Turkey so, now. That the, opposition I'm gonna link it to that point and finished now, that the opposition understood. The weakness of Turkey's. Foreign policy, I would say the limitation, they, are rising so, he's gonna get more challenges, I believe from, his opposition.