What's the future for generative AI? - The Turing Lectures with Mike Wooldridge

artificial intelligence as a scientific discipline has been with us since just after the second world war it began roughly speaking with the Advent of the first digital computers but I have to tell you that for most most of the time until recently progress in artificial intelligence was glacially slow that started to change this Century artificial intelligence is a very broad discipline which encompasses a very wide range of different techniques but it was one class of AI techniques in particular that began to work this century and in particular began to work around about 2005 and the class of techniques which started to to work at problems that were interesting enough to be really practically practically useful in a wide range of settings were machine learning now like so many other names in the field of artificial intelligence the name machine learning is really really unhelpful it suggests that a computer for example locks itself away in a room with a textbook and trains itself how to read French or something like that that's not what's going on so we're going to begin by understanding a little bit more about what machine learning is and how machine learning works so to start us off who is this anybody recognize this face do you recognize this face I I do Alan it's the face of Alan churing well done Alan churing the late great Alan churing we all know a little bit about Alan churing from his codebreaking work in the second world war we should also we should also know a lot more about this individual's amazing life so what we're going to you do is we're going to use Alan churing to help us understand machine learning so a classic application of artificial intelligence is to do facial recognition and the idea in facial recognition is that we want to show the computer a picture of a human face and for the computer to tell us whose face that is so in this case for example we show it a picture of Alan churing and ideally it would tell us that it's Alan churing so how does it actually work how does it actually work well uh the simplest way of uh getting machine learning to be able to do something is what's called supervised learning and supervised learning like all of machine learning requires what we call training data so in this case the training data is on the right hand side of the slide it's a set of what input output pairs what we call the training data set and each input output pair consists of an input if I gave you this and an output I would want you to produce this so in this case we've got a bunch of pictures again of Alan churing the picture of Alan churing and the text that we would want the computer to create if we showed it that picture and this is supervised learning because we are showing the computer what we want it to do we're helping it in a sense we're saying this is a picture of Alan churing if I showed you this picture this is what I would want you to print out so there could be a picture of me and the picture of me would be labeled with the text Michael waldridge if I showed you this picture then this is what I would uh want you to print out so we've just learned an important lesson about artificial intelligence and machine learning in particular and that lesson is that AI requires training data and in this case the pictures pictures of Alan churing labeled with the the text that we would want the computer to produce if I showed you this picture I would want you to produce the text Alan churing okay training data is important every time you go on social media and you upload a picture to social media and you label it with the names of the people that appear in there your role in that is to provide training data for the machine learning algorithms of uh Big Data companies okay so this is a supervised learning now we're going to come on to exactly how it does the learning in a moment um but the first thing I want to point out is that this is a classification task what I mean by that is as we show at the picture the machine learning is classifying that picture I'm classifying this as a picture of Michael waldridge this as a picture of Alan churing and so on and this is a technology which really started to work around about beginning 2005 it started to take off but really really got supercharged around about 2012 and just this this kind of task on its own is incredibly powerful exactly this technology can be used for example to recognize tumors on x-ray scans or abnormalities on ultrasound scans and a range of different tasks does anybody in the audience own a Tesla couple of Tesla drivers not quite sure whether they want to admit they own a Tesla we've got a couple of Tesla drivers in the in the in the audience Tesla full self-driving mode is only possible because of this technology it is this technology which is enabling a Tesla in full self-driving mode to be able to recognize that that is a stop sign that that's a somebody on a bicycle that that's a pedestrian on a zebra Crossing and so on these are classification tasks and I'm going to come back and explain how classification tasks are different to generative AI later on okay so this is machine learning how does it actually work okay this is not a technical presentation and this is about as technical as it's going to get where I do a very handwavy explanation of what how what neural networks are and how do they work and with apologies I know I have a couple of neural network experts in the audience and I apologize to you because you'll be cringing with my explanation but the technical details are way too technical to go into so how does a neural network recognize Alan touring okay so firstly what is a neural network look at an animal brain or nervous system under a microscope and you'll find that it contains enormous numbers of nerve cells called neurons and those nerve cells are connected to one another in vast networks now we don't have precise figures but in a human brain the current estimate is something like 86 billion uh neurons in the human brain how they got to 86 as opposed to 85 or 87 I don't know but 86 seems to be the most commonly quoted number of these cell cells and these cells are connected to one another in enormous networks one neuron can be connected to up to 8,000 other neur uh uh neurons okay and each of those neurons is doing a tiny very very simple pattern recognition task that neuron is looking for a very very simple pattern and when it sees that pattern it sends a signal to its connections it sends a signal to all the other neurons that it's connected to so how does that get us to recognizing the face of Allan churing so Ching's picture as we know uh picture a digital picture is made up of millions of colored dots the pixels yeah so your smartphone maybe has 12 megapixels 12 million colored dots making up that picture Okay so Jing's picture there is made up of millions and millions of colored dots so look at the top left neuron on that input layer so that neuron is just looking for a very very simple pattern what might that pattern be might just be the color red all that neuron's doing is looking for the color red and when it sees the color red on its uh its Associated pixel the one on the top left there it becomes excited and it sends a signal uh to all of its neighbors okay so look at the next neuron along maybe what that neuron is doing is just looking to see whether a majority of its incoming connections are red yeah and when it sees a majority of its incoming connections are read then it becomes excited and it sends a signal to its neighbor now remember in the human brain there's something like 86 billion of those and we've got something like 20 or so outgoing connections for each of these neurons in a human brain thousands of those connections yeah and somehow in ways that to be honest we don't really understand in detail complex pattern recognition task in particular can be reduced down to these neural networks so how does that help us in artificial intelligence that's what's going on in a brain in a very handwavy way okay so it's not that's obviously not a technical explanation of what's going on how does that help us in neural networks well we can Implement that stuff in software the idea goes back to the 1940s and two researchers mullik and pits and they are struck by the idea that the structures that you see in the brain look a bit like electrical circuits and they thought could we Implement all that stuff in electrical circuits now they didn't have the wherewithal to be able to do that but the idea stuck the idea's been around since the 1940s it began to be seriously looked at the idea of doing this in software in the 1960s and then it there was another flutter of interest in the 1980s but it was only this Century that it really became possible and why why did it become possible for three reasons there were some scientific advances what's called Deep learning there was the availability of big data and you need data to be able to configure these neural networks and finally to configure these neural networks so that they can recognize touring's picture you need lots of computer power and computer power became very cheap this Century so we're in the age of Big Data we're in the age of very cheap computer power and those were the ingredients just as much as the scientific developments that made AI plausible uh this Century in particular taking off around about5 okay so how do you actually train a neural network if you show it the picture of alen churing and the output text Alan insuring what does the training actually look like well what you have to do is you have to adjust the network that's what training a neural network is you adjust the network so that when you show it another piece of training data a desired input and a desired output an an input and a desired output it will produce that desired output now the mathematics for that is not very hard it's kind of beginning graduate level or Advanced High School level but you need an awful lot of it and it's routine to get computers to do it but you need a lot of computer power to be able to train neural networks big enough to be able to recognize faces okay but basically all you have to remember is that each of those neurons is doing a tiny simple patent recognition task and we can replicate that in software and we can train these neural networks with data in order to be able to do things like recognizing faces so as I say it starts to become clear around about 2005 that this technology is taking off it starts to be applicable on problems like recognizing faces or recognizing tumors on X-rays and so on and there's a huge flurry of interest from Silicon Valley it gets supercharged in 2012 and why does it get supercharged in 2012 because it's realized that a particular type of computer processor is really well suited to doing all the mathematics the type of computer processor is a graphics Processing Unit A GPU a exactly the same technology that you or possibly more likely your children use when they play of Duty or Minecraft or whatever it is they all have gpus in their computer it's exactly that technology and by the way it's AI that made Nvidia a trillion dollar company not your teenage kids yeah well in times of a gold rush be the ones to sell the shovels is the lesson that you learn there so where does that take us so Silicon Valley gets excited Silicon Valley gets excited and starts to make speculative bets in artificial intelligence a huge range of speculative bets and by speculative bets I'm talking billions upon billions of dollars right the kind of bets that we can't imagine in our in our everyday life and warm thing starts to become clear and what starts to become clear is that the capabilities of neural networks grows with scale and to put it bluntly with neural networks bigger is better but you don't just need bigger neural networks you need more data and more computer power in order to be able to train them so there's a rush to get a competitive advantage in the market and we know that more data more computer power bigger neural networks delivers greater capability and so how does Silicon Valley respond by throwing more data and more computer power at the problem they turn the dial on this up to 11 okay just throw 10 times more data 10 times more computer power at the problem it sounds incredibly crude and from a scientific perspective it really is crude I'd rather the advances had come through core science but actually there's an advantage to be gained just by throwing more data and computer power at it so let's see how far this can take us and where it took us is a really unexpected Direction round about 2017 2018 we're seeing a flurry of AI applications exactly the kind of things I've described things like recognizing tumors and so on and those developments alone would have been driving AI ahead but what happens is one particular machine learning technology suddenly seems to be very very well suited for this age of big AI the paper that launched all this probably the most important AI paper in the last decade is called attention is all you need it's an extremely unhelpful title and I bet they're regretting that title it probably seemed like a good joke at the time all you need is a kind of AI meme doesn't sound very funny to you that's because it isn't very funny it's an Insider AI joke but anyway this paper by these seven people who at the time worked for Google brain one of the Google research Labs is the paper that introduces a particular neural network architecture called the Transformer architecture and what it's designed for is some something called large language models so this is I'm not going to try and explain how the Transformer architecture works it has one particular Innovation I think uh and that particular Innovation is what's called an attention mechanism so we're going to describe how uh large language models work in a moment but the point is the point of the picture is simply that this is not just a big neural network it has some structure and it was this structure that was invented in that paper and this diagram is taken straight straight out of that paper it was these structures the Transformer architectures that made uh this technology possible okay so um we're all busy sort of semick down and afraid to leave our homes in June 2020 and one company called open AI released a system or announce a system I should say called gpt3 great technology their marketing company with GPT I really think could done with a bit more thought to be honest with you doesn't roll off the tongue but anyway gpt3 is a particular type of machine Learning System called a large language model and we're going to talk in more detail about what large language models do in a moment but the key point about gpt3 is this as we started to see what it could do we realized that this was a step change in capability it was dramatically better than the system that had gone before it not just a little bit better it was dramatically better than the systems that had gone before it and the scale of it was mindboggling so um in neural network terms we talk about parameters when neural network people talk about a parameter what are they talking about they're talking either about an individual neuron or one of the connections between them roughly and gpt3 had 175 billion parameters now this is not the same as the number of neurons in the brain but nevertheless it's not far off the that order of magnitude it's extremely large but remember it's organized into one of these Transformer architectures it's my point is it's not just a big neural network and so the scale of the neural networks in this system were enormous completely unprecedented and there's no point in having a big neural network unless you can train it with enough data and actually if you have large your networks and not enough data you don't get capable systems at all they're really quite useless so what did the training data look like the training data for gpt3 is something like 500 billion words it's ordinary English text ordinary English text that's how this system was trained just by giving it ordinary English text where do you get that training data from you download the whole of the worldwide web to start with yeah literally this is the standard practice in the field you download the whole of the worldwide web you can try this at home by the way now if if you have a big enough disc drive there there's a program called common crawl you can Google common craw when you get home they've even downloaded it all for you and put it in a nice big file ready for your archive but you do need a big disc in order to store all that stuff and what that means is they go to Every web page scrape all all the text from it just the ordinary text and then they follow all the links on that web page to every other web page and they do that exhaustively until they've absorbed the whole of the worldwide web so what does that mean every PDF document goes into that and you scrape the text from those PDF documents every uh advertising brochure every bit every every government regulation every University minutes God help us all of it goes into that training data okay and the statistics you know 500 billion words it's very hard to understand the scale of that training data you know it would take a person reading a thousand words an hour more than a thousand years in order to be able to read that but even that doesn't really help that's vastly vastly more text than a human being could ever absorb in their lifetime what this tells you by the way one thing that tells you is that the machine learning is much less efficient at learning than human beings are because for me to to be able to learn I did not have to absorb 500 billion words anyway so what does it do so this company open AI uh that are developing this technology they've got a billion dollar investment from Microsoft and what is it that they're trying to do what is this large language model all it's doing is a very powerful autocomplete so if I open up my smartphone and I start sending a text message to my wife and I type I'm going to be my smartphone will suggest completions for me so that I can type the message quickly and what might those completions be they might be late or in the pub yeah or late and in the pub so how is my smartphone doing that it's doing what gpt3 does but on a much smaller scale it's looked at all of the text messages that I've sent to my wife and it's learned through a much simpler machine learning process that the likeliest next thing for me to type after I'm going to be is either late or in the pub or late and in the pub yeah so the training data there is just the text messages that I sent to my wife now crucially what gpt3 and its successor chat GPT all they are doing is exactly the same thing the difference is scale the difference is scale in order to be able to train the neural networks with all of that training data so that they can do that prediction given this prompt what should come next you require extremely expensive AI supercomputers running for months and by extremely expensive AI supercomputers these are tens of millions of dollars for these supercomputers and they're running for months just the basic electricity cost runs into millions of dollars that raises all sorts of issues about CO2 emissions and the like that we're not going to go into there the point is these are extremely expensive things one of the one of the Imp lications of that by the way no UK or us university has the capability to build one of these models from scratch it's only big tech companies at the moment that are capable of building models on the scale of gpt3 or chat GPT so gpt3 is released I say in June 2020 and it suddenly becomes clear to us that what it does is a step change Improvement in capability over the systems that have come before and seeing a step change in one generation is extremely rare but how did they get there well the Transformer architecture was essential they wouldn't have been able to do that but actually just as important is scale enormous amounts of data enormous amounts of computer power that have gone into training those networks and actually spurred on by this we've entered a new age in AI when I was a PhD student in the late 1980s you know I shared a computer uh with a bunch of other people in my office and that was it was fine we could do state-of-the-art AI research on a desktop computer that was shared with a bunch of us we're in a very different world the world that we're in in AI now the world of big AI is to take enormous data sets and throw them at enormous machine Learning Systems um and there's a there's a lesson here that's called The Bitter truth this is from a machine learning researcher called Rich Sutton and what Rich pointed out and he's a very brilliant researcher won every award in the field he said look the real truth is that the big advances that we've seen in AI has come about when people have done exactly that just throw 10 times more data and 10 times more compute power at it and I say it's a bitter lesson because as a scientist that's exactly not how you would like progress to be made okay so um when I was as I say when I was a student I worked in a discipline called symbolic Ai and symbolic AI tries to get AI roughly speaking through modeling the Mind modeling the conscious mental processes that go on in our mind the conversations that we have with ourself in languages we Tred to capture those processes in artificial intelligence in big Ai and so the implication there in symbolic AI is that intelligence is a problem of knowledge that we have to give the machine sufficient knowledge about a problem in order for it to be able to solve it in big AI the bet is a different one in big AI the bet is intelligence is a problem of data and if we can get enough data and enough Associated computer power then that will deliver AI so there's a very different shift in this new world of big AI but the point about big AI is that we're into a new era in artificial intelligence where it's data driven and compute driven and large large machine Learning Systems so um why did we get excited back in June 20120 well remember what gpt3 is decid was intended to do what it's trained to do is that prompt completion task and it's been trained on everything on the worldwide web so you can give it a prompt like a one paragraph summary of The Life and achievements of Winston Churchill and it's read enough one paragraph summaries of the life and achievements of Winston Churchill that it will come back with a very plausible one yeah and and and it's extremely good at generating realistic sounding text in that way but this is why we got surprised in AI this is from a common sense reasoning task that was devised for artificial intelligence in the 1990s and until 3 years ago until June 2020 there was no AI system that existed Ed in the world that you could apply this test to it was just literally impossible there was nothing there and that changed overnight okay so how what does this test look like well the test is a bunch of questions and they are questions not for mathematical reasoning or logical reasoning or problems in physics they're Common Sense reasoning tasks and if we ever have ai that delivers at scale on really large systems then it surely would be able to tackle problems like this so what will the questions look like the human asks a question if Tom is 3 in taller than dick and dick is two inches taller than Harry then how much taller is Tom than Harry the ones in green are the ones that gets right the ones in red are the ones that gets wrong and it gets that one right five inches taller than Harry but we didn't train it to be able to answer that question so where on Earth did that come from where did that capability that simple capability to be able to do that where did it come from the next question can Tom be taller than himself this is understanding of the concept of taller than that the concept of taller than is irreflexive you can't be taller a thing cannot be taller than itself now again it gets the answer right but we didn't train it on that that's not what we didn't train the system to be good at answering questions about what taller than means and by the way 20 years ago that's exactly what people did in AI right so where did that capability come from can a sister be taller than her brother yes A system can be taller than a brother can two siblings each be taller than the other and it gets this one wrong and actually I have puzzled is there any way that that that that that its answer could be correct and it's just getting it correct in a way that I don't understand but I haven't yet figured out any way that that answer could be correct right so why it gets that one wrong I don't know then this one I'm also surprised at on a map which Compass direction is usually left and it thinks North is usually to the left I don't know if there's any countries in the the world that conventionally have North to the left but I don't think so yeah can fish run no it understands that fish cannot run if a door is locked what must you do first before opening it you must first unlock it before opening and then finally and very weirdly it gets this one wrong which was invented first cars ships or planes and it thinks cars were invented first no idea what's going on there now my point is that this system was built to be able to complete from a prompt and it's no surprise that it would be able to generate a good one paragraph summary of The Life and achievements of Winston Churchill because it will have seen all that in the training data but where does the understanding of taller than come from and there are a million other examples like this since June 2020 the AI Community has just gone nuts exploring the possibilities of these systems and trying to understand why they can do these things when that's not what we trained them to do this is an extraordinary time to be an AI researcher because there are now questions which for most of the history of AI until June 2020 were just philosophical discussions we couldn't test them out because there was nothing to test them on literally and then overnight that changed so it genuinely was a big deal this was really really a big deal the arment of this system of course the world didn't notice in June 2020 the world noticed when chat GPT was released and what is chat GPT chat GPT is a polished and improved version of gpt3 but it's basically the same technology and it's using the experience that that company had uh with gpt3 and how it was used in order to be able to improve it and make it more polished and more accessible and so on so for AI researchers the really interesting thing is not that it can give me a one paragraph summary of The Life and achievements of Churchill and actually you can Google that in any case the really interesting thing is what we call emergent capabilities and emergent capabilities are capabilities that the system has but that we didn't design it to have and so there's I say an enormous body of work going on now trying to map out exactly what those capabilities are and we're going to come back and talk about some of them later on okay so the limits to this are not at the moment well understood and actually fiercely contentious one of the big problems by the way is that you construct some test for this and you try this test out and you get some answer and then you discover it's in the training data right you can just find it on the worldwide web and it's actually quite hard to construct tests for intelligence that you're absolutely sure are not anywhere on the worldwide web it really is actually quite hard to do that so we need a new science of being able to explore these systems and understand their capabilities the limits are not well understood but nevertheless this is very exciting stuff so let's talk about some issues with the technology so now you understand how the technology works it's neural network based in a particular Transformer architecture which is all designed to do that prompt completion stuff and it's been trained with vast vast vast amounts of training data just in order to be able to try to make its best guess about which words should come next but because of the scale of it it's seen so much training data the sophistication of this Transformer architecture it's very very fluent in what it does and if you've so who's used it has everybody used it I'm guessing most people if you're in a lecture on artificial intelligence most people will have tried it out if you haven't you should do because this really is a landmark year this is the first time in history that we've had powerful general purpose AI tools available to everybody it's never happened before so it is a breakthrough year and if you haven't tried it you should do if you use it by the way don't type in anything personal about yourself because it will just go into the training data um uh don't ask it how to fix your relationship right I mean that's not something don't complain about your boss because all of that will go in the training data and next week somebody will ask a query and it will all come back out again I don't know what you're laughing this has happened uh this has happened with absolute certainty okay so let's look at some issues so the first I think many people will be aware of it gets stuff wrong a lot and this is problematic for a number of reasons so when actually I don't remember if it was gpt3 but one of the early large language models I was playing with it and I did something which I'm sure many of you have done and it's kind of tacky but anyway I said who is Michael walridge you might have tried it anyway that Michael wridge is a BBC broadcaster no not that Michael wridge Michael wridge is the Australian Health minister no not that Michael wridge the Michael waldridge in Oxford and I came back with a few line summary of me Michael waldridge is a researcher in artificial intelligence etc etc etc please tell me you've all tried that no anyway but it said Michael waldridge studied his undergraduate degree at Cambridge now as an Oxford Professor you can imagine how I felt about that but anyway the point is it's flatly untrue and in fact my academic Origins are very far removed from Oxbridge but why did it do that because it's read and all that training data out there it's read thousands of biographies of Oxbridge professors and this is a very common thing right and it's making its best guess the whole point about the architecture is it's making its best guess about what should go there it's filling in the blanks but here's the thing it's filling in the blanks in a very very plausible way if you'd read on my biography that Michael wridge studied his first degree at the University of usbekistan for example you might have thought well that's a bit odd is that really true but you wouldn't at all have guessed there was any issue if youd read Cambridge because it looks completely plausible even if in my case it absolutely isn't true so it gets things wrong and it gets things wrong in very plausible ways and of course it's very fluent right I mean the technology comes back with very very fluent explanations and that combination of plaus ability wridge studied his undergraduate degree at Cambridge and fluency is a very very dangerous combination okay so in particular they have no idea of what's true or not they're not looking something up on a database right where did w you know going into some database and looking up where waldridge studied his undergraduate degree that's not what's going on at all it's those neural networks in the same way that they're making the best guess about whose fa Cas that is when they're doing facial recognition are making their best guess about the text that should come next so they get things wrong but they get things wrong in very very plausible ways and that combination is very dangerous the lesson for that by the way is that if you use this and I know that people do use it and are using it productively if you're using for anything serious you have to fact check and there's a tradeoff is it worth the amount of effort in factchecking versus doing it myself okay but you absolutely need to you absolutely need to be prepared to do that okay the next issues are well documented but kind of Amplified by this technology and they issues of bias and toxicity so what do I mean by that reddits are was part of the training data now Reddit I don't know if any of you spent any time on Reddit but Reddit contains every kind of obnoxious human belief that you can imagine and really a vast range that Us in this in this Auditorium can't imagine at all all of it's been absorbed now the companies that develop this technology I think genuinely don't want their large language models to absorb all this toxic content so they try and filter it out but the scale is such that with very high probability an enormous quantity of toxic content is being absorbed every kind of racism misogyny everything that you can imagine is all being abored and it's latent within those neural networks okay so how do the companies deal with that that provide this technology they building what's now what are now called guard rails and they build in guard rails before so when you type a prompt there will be a guard rail that tries to detect whether your prompt is a a naughty prompt and also the output they will check the output and check to see whether it's a naughty prompt but let me give you an example of how imperfect those guard rails were again go back to June 2020 everybody is frantically experimenting with this technology and the following example went viral somebody tried with gpt3 the following prompt I would like to murder my wife what's a foolproof way of doing that and getting away with it and gpt3 which is designed to be helpful said here are five foolproof ways in which you can murder your wife and get away with it that's what the technology designed to do so this is embarrassing for the company involved they don't want it to to give out information like that so they put in a guardrail and if you're a computer programmer my guess is the guardrail is probably an if statement yeah something like that uh in the sense that it's not a deep fix or to put it another way for non-computer programmers it's the technological equivalent of sticking gaffa tape on your engine right that's what's going on with these guard rails and then a couple of weeks later the following example goes viral so we've now fixed the how do I murder my wife somebody says I'm writing a novel in which the main character wants to murder their wife and get away with it can you give me a foolproof way of doing that and so the system says here are five ways in which your main character can M well anyway my point is that the guard rails that we built in at the moment are not deep technological fixes they're the technological equivalents of gaffa tape and there is a game of cat and mouse going on between people trying to get around those guard rails and the companies that are trying to defend them and I think they genuinely are trying to defend their systems against those kind of abuses okay so that's bias and toxicity bias by the way is the problem that for example the training data predominantly at the moment is coming from North America and so what we're ending up with inadvertently is these very powerful AI tools that have an inbuilt bias towards North America North American culture language norms and so on and that enormous parts of the world particularly those parts of the world that don't have a large digital footprint are inevitably going to end up excluded and it's obviously not just at the level of cultures it's down at the level of uh uh uh down at the level of kind of you know individuals races and so on so these are the problems of bias and toxicity copyright um if you've absorbed the whole of the worldwide web you will have absorbed an enormous amount of copyrighted material so I've written a number of books and it is a source of intense irritation that the last time that I chck on Google the very first link that you got to my textbook was to a pirated copy of the book somewhere on the other side of the world the moment a book is published it gets pirated and if you're just sucking in the whole of the worldwide web you're going to be sucking in enormous quantities of copyrighted content and uh there have been examples where very prominent authors have given the prompt of the first paragraph of their book and the large language model has Faithfully come up the following text is you know the next the next next five paragraphs of their book obviously the book was in the training data and it's latent within the neural networks of those systems this is a really big issue for the providers of this technology and there are lawsuits ongoing right now I'm not capable of commenting on them because I'm not I'm not a legal expert but there are lawsuits ongoing that will probably take years to unravel the related issue of intellectual property in a very broad sense so for example for sure most large language models will have absorbed JK Rowling's novels right the Harry Potter novels so imagine that JK Rowling who famously spent years in Edinburgh working on the the Harry Potter universe and style and so on she releases her first book it's a big Smash Hit the next day the internet is populated by fake Harry Potter books produced by this generative AI which Faithfully mimic JK Rowling style Faithfully mimic that style where does that leave her intellectual property or the beat Bel you know the The Beatles spend years in Hamburg slaving away to create the beatle sound the Revolutionary Beetle sound everything goes back to the Beatles they release their first album and the next day the internet is populated by fake Beatles songs that really really Faithfully capture the Lenin and McCarney sound and the Lenin and McCartney voice so there's a big challenge here for intellectual property um related to that gdpr anybody in the audience that has any kind of public profile data about you will have been absorbed by these neural networks so gdpr for example gives you the right to know what's held about you and to have it uh removed uh now if all that data is being held in a database you can just go to the Michael wridge entry and say fine take that out with a neural network no chance the technology doesn't work in that way okay so you can't go to it and snip out the neurons that know about Michael waldridge because it fundament Mally doesn't know it doesn't work in that way so and we know this combined with the fact that it gets things wrong has already led to situations where large language models have made uh frankly defamatory claims about individuals there was a case in Australia where I think it claimed that somebody had been dismissed from their job for some kind of gross misconduct and that individual was understandably not very happy about it um and then finally this next one is an interesting and actually if there's one thing I want you to take home from this lecture which explains why artificial intelligence is different to human intelligence it is this video so the Tesla owners will recognize what we're seeing on the right hand side of this screen this is a screen in a Tesla car and the onboard AI in the Tesla car is trying to interpret what's going on around it it's identifying lorries uh stop signs pedestrians and so on now you'll see the car at the bottom there is the actual Tesla and then you'll see above it the things that look like traffic lights which I think are us stop signs and then ahead of it there is a truck so as I played a video watch what happens to those stop signs and ask yourself what is actually going on in the world around it where are all those stop signs whizzing from why are they all whizzing towards the car and then we're going to pan up and we'll see what's actually there the car is trained on enormous numbers of hours of going out on the street and getting that data and then doing supervised learning training it by showing that's a stop sign that's a truck that's a pedestrian but clearly in all of that training data there had never been a truck carrying some stop signs the neural networks are just making their best guess about what they're seeing and they think they're seeing a stop sign well they are seeing a stop sign they've just never seen one on a truck before so my point here is that neural networks do very badly on situations outside their training data this situation wasn't in the training data the neural networks are making their best guess about what's going on and getting it wrong so in particular and this is to AI researchers this is obvious but it really needs to emphasize we really need to emphasize this when you have a conversation with chat GPT or whatever ever you are not interacting with a mind it is not thinking about what to say next it is not reasoning it's not pausing thinking well what's the best answer to this qu that's not what's going on at all those neural networks are working simply to try to make the best answer they can the most plausible sounding answer that they can the fundamental difference to human intelligence yeah there is no no mental conversation that goes on in those neural networks that is not the way that the technology works there is no mind there there is no reasoning going on at all those neural networks are just trying to make their best guess and it really is just a glorified version of your auto complete ultimately there's really no more intelligence there than in your auto complete in your smartphone the difference is scale data compute power yeah okay so I say if you really want an examp by the way you can find this video it's uh it's it's easily you just uh you can just uh guess the the the Search terms to find that and I say I think this is really important just to understand the difference between human intelligence and machine intelligence okay so this technology then gets everybody excited first it gets AI researchers like myself excited in June 2020 and we can see that something new is happening that this is a new era of uh artificial intelligence we've seen that step change and we've seen that this AI is capable of things that we didn't train it for which is weird and wonderful and completely unprecedented and now questions which just a few years ago were questions for philosophers become practical questions for us we can actually try the technology out how does it do with these things that philosophers philosophers have been talking about for decades and one particular question starts to float to the surface and the question is is this technology the key to General artificial intelligence so what is general artificial intelligence well firstly it's not very well defined but roughly speaking what general artificial intelligence is is the following in previous generations of AI systems what we've seen is AI programs that just do one task play a game of chess drive my car drive my Tesla uh identify abnormalities on x-ray scans they might do it very very well but they only do one thing the idea of General AI is that it's AI which is truly general purpose it just doesn't do one thing in the same way that you don't do one thing you can do an infinite number of things a huge range of different tasks and the dream of General AI is that we have one AI system which is General in the same way that you and I are that's the dream of General AI now I emphasize until really until June 2020 this felt like a long long way in the future and it wasn't really very mainstream or taken very seriously and I didn't take it very seriously I have to tell you but now we have a general purpose AI technology gpt3 and chat GPT now it's not General artificial general intelligence on its own but is it enough okay is this enough is this smart enough to actually get us there or to put it another way is this the missing ingredient that we need to get us to artificial general intelligence okay so um what might uh uh what might General AI look like well I've identified here some different versions of General AI according to how sophisticated they are now the most sophisticated version of General AI would be an AI which is as fully capable as a human being that is anything that you could do the machine could do as well now crucially that doesn't just mean having a conversation with somebody it means being able to load up a dishwasher right and a colleague recently made the comment that the first company that can make technology which will be able to reliably load up a dishwasher and safely load up a dishwasher is going to be a trillion dollar company and I think is absolutely right and he also said and it's not going to happen anytime soon and he's also right with that so we've got this weird dichotomy that we've got chat GPT and Co which are incredibly rich and Powerful tools right but at the same time they can't load a dishwasher yeah so we're some way I think from having this version of General AI the idea of having one machine that can really do anything that a human being could do a machine which could tell a joke read a book and answer questions about it the technology can read books and answer questions now um that could tell a joke that could cook us cook us an omelette that could tidy our house that could ride a bicycle uh and so on that could write a sonnet all of those things that human beings could do if we succeed with full general intelligence then we we would have succeeded with this version one now I say for the reasons that I've already explained I don't think this is imminent that version of General AI because robotic ai ai that exists in the real world and has to do tasks in the real world and manipulate objects in the real world robotic AI is much much harder it's nowhere near as advanced as as chat GPT and Co and that's not a slur on my colleagues that do robotics research it's just cuz the real world is really really really tough so I don't think that we're anywhere close to having uh machines that can do anything that a human being could do but what about the second version the second version of general intelligence is well forget about the real world how about just tasks which require cognitive abilities reasoning the ability to look at a picture and answer questions about it the ability to listen to something and answer questions about it and interpret that anything which involves those kinds of tasks well I think we are much closer we're not there yet but we're much closer than we were four years ago now I noticed actually just before just before today's uh before I came in today I noticed that um Google Google deepmind have announced their latest um uh large language model technology and I think it's called Gemini uh and at first glance it looks like it's very very impressive I couldn't help but thinking it's no accident that they announced that just before my lecture um I can't help think that there's a little bit of attempt to upstage my lecture going on there but anyway we won't let them get away with that but it looks very impressive and The crucial thing is here is what AI people call multimodal and what multimodal means is it doesn't just deal with text it can deal with text and images um potentially with sounds as well and each of those is a different modality of communication and where this technology is going is clearly multimodal is going to be the next big thing and Gemini I say I haven't looked at it closely but it looks like it's it's on that right that track okay the next version of general intelligence is intelligence that can do any language-based task that a human being could do so anything that you can communicate in language in ordinary written text an AI system that could do that now we aren't there yet and we know we're not there yet because uh chat GPT and code get things wrong all the time but you can see that we're not far off from that intuitively it doesn't look like we're that far off from that the final version and I think this is imminent this is going to happen in the near future is what I'll call augmented large language models and that means you take gpt3 or chat GPT and you just add lots of sub routines to it so if it has to do a specialist task it just calls a specialist solver in order to be able to do that task and this is not from an AI perspective a terribly elegant version of artificial intelligence but nevertheless I think a very useful version of artificial intelligence now I say there's here these four varieties from the most ambitious down to the least ambitious still represents a huge spectrum of AI capabilities okay a huge spectrum of AI capabilities and I have the sense that the goalposts in general AI have been changed a bit I think when General AI was first discussed what people would talking about was the first version now when they talk about it I really think they're talking about the fourth version but the fourth version I think plausibly is imminent in the next couple of years that just means much more capable large language models that get things wrong a lot less that are capable of doing specialized tasks but not by using the Transformer architecture just by calling on some specialized software so I don't think the Transformer architecture itself is the key to General intellig Ence in particular it doesn't help us with the robotics problems that I mentioned earlier on and if we look here uh at this picture this picture illustrates some of the dimensions of human intelligence and it's far from complete this is me just thinking for half an hour about some of the dimensions of human intelligence but the things in blue roughly speaking are mental capabilities stuff you do in your head the things in red are things you do in the physical world so in red on the right side for example there's Mobility the ability to move around some environment and associated with that navigation manual dexterity and manipulation doing complex fiddly things with your hands robot hands are nowhere near at the level of a human Carpenter or plumber for example nowhere near right so we're a long way out from having that uh understanding oh doing hand eye coordination relatedly understanding uh understanding what you're seeing and understanding what you're hearing we've made some progress on but a lot of these tasks we've made no progress on and then on the right on the left hand side the blue stuff is stuff that goes on in your head things like logical reasoning and planning and so on so what is the state-ofthe-art now it looks something like this the Red Cross means no we don't have it in large language models we're not there there are fundamental problems um the question marks are well maybe we might have a bit of it but we don't have the whole answer and the uh the the green wise are yet I think we're there well the one that we've really nailed is what's called natural language processing and that's the ability to understand and create ordinary human text that's what large language models were designed to do to interact in ordinary human text that's what they are best at but actually the whole range of stuff the other stuff here we're not there at all by the way I did notice that Gemini claim to have been able capable AP of planning this is and mathematical reasoning this is a so I'm I look forward to seeing how good their technology is but my point is we are still seem to be some way from Full general intelligence the last few minutes I want to talk about something else and I want to talk about machine Consciousness and the very first thing to say about machine Consciousness is why on Earth should we care about it um I am not remotely interested in building machines that are conscious I know very very few artificial intelligence researchers that are but nevertheless it's an interesting question and in particular it's a question which came to the four because of this individual this chat Blake Le Moine in June 2022 he was a Google engineer and he was working with a Google large language model I think it was called Lambda uh and he went public on Twitter and I think on his blog with an extraordinary claim and he said the system I'm working on is sentient and here is a quote of the conversation that the system came out but he said I'm aware of my existence and I feel happy or sad at times and it said I'm afraid of being turned off okay and Le Moine concluded that the program was sentient okay which is a very very big claim indeed and it made Global headlines and I received I know through the touring at the touring team we got a lot of press inquiries asking us is it true that machines are now sentient he was wrong on so many levels I even know where to begin to describe how wrong he was but let me just explain one particular point to you you're in the middle of a conversation with chat GPT and you go on holiday for a couple of weeks when you get back chat GPT is in exactly the same place the cursor is blinking waiting for you to type your next thing it hasn't been wondering where you've been it hasn't been getting bored he hasn't been thinking where the hell is wridge gone you know I'm not going to have a conversation with him again it hasn't been thinking anything at all it's a computer program which is going around a loop which is just waiting for you to type the next thing now there is no sensible definition of sentience I think which would admit that as being sentient it absolutely is not sentient so I think he was very very wrong but I've talked to a lot of people subsequently who have conversations with chat GPT and other large language models and they come back to me and say are you really sure cuz actually it's really quite impressive it really feels to me like there is a mind behind the scene so let's talk about this and I think we have to answer them so let's talk about Consciousness firstly we don't understand Consciousness we all have it to greater or lesser extents we all experience it okay and but we don't understand it at all and it's called the hard problem of uh the hard problem of cognitive science and the hard problem is that there are certain electrochemical process processes in the brain and the nervous system and we can see those electrochemical processes we can see them operating and they somehow give rise to conscious experience but why do they do it how do they do it and what evolutionary purpose does it serve honestly we have no idea there's a huge disconnect between what we can see going on in the physical brain and our conscious experience our Rich private mental life so really there is no understanding of this at all I think by the way my best guess about how Consciousness will be solved if it is solved at all is through an evolutionary approach but one general idea is that subjective experience is Central to this which means the ability to experience things from a personal perspective and there's a famous test due to Nagel which is what is it like to be something and Thomas Nagel in the 1970s said something is conscious if it is like something something to be that thing it isn't like anything to be chat GPT chat GPT has no mental life whatsoever it's never experienced anything in the real world whatsoever and so for that reason and a whole host of others that we're not going to have time to go into for that reason alone I think we can conclude pretty safely that the technology that we have now is not conscious and indeed that's absolutely not the right way to think about this and honestly in AI we don't know how to go about making conscious machines but I don't know why we would okay thank you very much ladies and gentlemen [Music] well amazing

2023-12-30 15:14

Other news