Reality of Pakistan Crisis | Nitish Rajput | Hindi
There are many other countries which are more poor than Pakistan Still why pakistan get more foreign aid? See, the situation that Pakistan is facing at this particular time it has never been stuck in such a situation before. Orders have been given to close shopping complexes and malls before 08:30 the electricity system is at the stage of collapsed, there is a shortage of wheat, and in many cases, people have encountered trucks full of ants while following them on bikes. In just one year, Pakistan's currency has fallen by 40% and reached 267 Pakistani rupees. Blackouts have occurred throughout the country in 2015 and 2021 as well, but not to the extent of what is happening now. Due to the losses caused by power cuts alone, Pakistan's GDP has fallen by up to 4%.
The textile and manufacturing sectors of Pakistan have completely collapsed due to power cuts, and the forex exchange has fallen below $3 billion, equivalent to Sri Lanka. Now, you may have many questions about why all of this has suddenly started? Bangladesh was behind Pakistan but is now moving ahead, but what is Pakistan's problem? Despite receiving the most aid from around the world, it still lags behind. There are many poorer countries in the world that are worse off than Pakistan, but why does Pakistan receive more financial aid than them? Now, before I talk about the current situation, that why pakistan is not getting foreign aid Why IMF is not supporting What is the role of US Imran Khan and Army it is important to understand the root cause of this entire situation. When India and Pakistan were partitioned, Pakistan received 1/3rd of the military and only 17% of the overall resources These details, which I am sharing, have been confirmed by Pakistan's author Hussain Haqqani. Out of the total of 921 major industries, only 34 were given to Pakistan.
At that time, although the countries were separated, India had economic control. The Reserve Bank of India was the central bank of both India and Pakistan, but control was in India's hands. India's total cash balance was 400 crores, and it was decided that 75 crores would be given to Pakistan from this amount. Out of this 75 crores, 20 crores were given to Pakistan on August 15, 1947, and the remaining 55 crores were to be given later. Pakistan's biggest problem was settling the refugees which had arrived. However, at that time, there were many issues regarding Kashmir.
Nehru and Patel believed that this 55 crores should be stopped, otherwise, Pakistan would buy weapons with this money and use them against India, even though Mahatma Gandhi had convinced them to release the money. However, until the money was received, Pakistan's economic condition had deteriorated significantly. The economic condition was weak but the military was strong, as India agreed to split the army in 1/3. India's political leadership was stronger than Pakistan's.
In India Nehru Ji, Gandhi Ji, and Sardar Patel were multiple strong leaders, whereas in the Muslim League, there was no strong leader other than Jinnah. After Jinnah's death, neither any powerful leader emerged, nor the military did not allow any to rise to power. The temporary control that the military had enjoyed allowed it to take over completely and 29 prime ministers were appointed in Pakistan, but not a single one completed their full term. Some were assassinated, while others had their throne taken away from them.
There have been many such assassinations, and even today, no agency has been able to determine who killed them. Imran Khan was shoot in a rally and who shot the gun is still unkown it is not possible without the involvement of any big personality In some cases, the law was amended to let the power in Army hand. The military had complete control from the beginning and this became a problem later, which you will understand shortly. Any country needs money to grow. Pakistan also faced this problem that it had to grow, but direct economic development was difficult because it required political stability and patience, as well as production So Pakistan's leadership began to find new ways to tackle these challenges And in this effort, it found a need for the United States of America and its military needs.
Pakistan realized that the US had no friends in South Asia, and it needed someone to control the Soviet Union. It saw an opportunity and presented itself as a friend of the US, in exchange for which it received foreign aid. But the question is, why was this foreign aid given? nowadays there are many US call centers in India and US employers hire employees from India, because a US citizen's salary is quite high, and the employer is liable for insurance, pension, and other benefits.
If there is an accident, the employer is responsible and the office infrastructure must be maintained. But in India, employees are available at lower wages, and there is no liability on US employers. The same concept is used by the US in its military. The US usually fights wars in two ways.
If it believes the stakes are very high, it jumps directly into the war as it did in Vietnam or Iraq. But when it feels that jumping into the war directly is not beneficial, it fights a shadow war. In this, it makes enemies' enemies into friends. When the US sends its army to fulfill its interests, it puts its citizens in danger, and if anything happens to them, the US has to bear the entire cost. Moreover, it has to answer its citizens about why it sent its military, and if it sends its military directly against any country, it can lead to a war-like situation, and countries can face each other.
Therefore, instead of traditional wars, the US trains different militant groups provides them with weapons and funding, so that they can achieve their goals. Like in Afghanistan, it got the mujahideen to do all these things for it and many groups fight wars for money. Now, if you search the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, you will find that Russia has recruited Syrian fighters with money and calls them mercenaries who are fighting against Ukraine. And in this model, the risk is very low, as heavy salaries are not required, and only weapons and training need to be provided. Pakistan has become a training center for this entire game, and the Pakistani military has set up this training center. When India and Pakistan became independent, there were two superpowers at that time - the USA and the Soviet Union (now Russia).
The Soviet Union had a lot of influence in South Asia, and India was also inclined towards the Soviet Union. In this situation, the US saw Pakistan as an option. The US trained the mujahideen to fight against the Soviet Union in Afghanistan to gain control of the region, and Pakistan took responsibility for the training. So, when the war between the Soviet Union and Afghanistan broke out, instead of sending its military, the US trained the Mujahideen. Neither was the US responsible for the lives of the Mujahideen nor did they have to pay high salaries, and the risk was also low.
If the US had sent its military to Afghanistan to fight against Russia, the war could have turned into a war between Russia and the US. Therefore, the US gave weapons to the Mujahideen and had them trained in Pakistan Pakistan hepls Mujahideen in every way possible They trained them gave them route supply them with weapons, food etc This was also beneficial for Pakistan because they started receiving money from the US without producing anything or putting any effort. The US would send this money as aid or under the guise of human rights. Usually, foreign aid is given to countries that are either poor or going through a crisis, such as a war or a natural disaster.
However, Pakistan received aid due to its strategic location and usefulness. Furthermore, a budget was fixed every year in which Pakistan received billions of dollars from the US. But Pakistan started using this money, centers and Mujahideen for Kashmir By 1964, the foreign aid received by Pakistan amounted to 5% of its GDP. However, amidst all this, Pakistan picked fights that had nothing to do with them Despite this, the Pakistani people and government were not happy with the aid received from the US and their involvement in the Afghanistan war. The people felt that these Afghans were their Muslim brothers, and they were causing them harm, and the government was not happy because the aid money went directly to the army and did not reach the people due to corruption Additionally, Pakistan's production and exports were zero, so the government was heavily criticized.
But Pakistan's economic situation took a turn for the worse when when the Afghanistan war ended in 1989, and the Mujahideen, trained by the US and Pakistan, toppled the Afghan government, paving the way for the Taliban's rule Osama Bin Laden and others were also trained by the US at that time. The Soviet Union was out, and the US had completed its task. This statement was confirmed by Parvez Musharraf himself in an interview, which is still available on YouTube. The US no longer needed Pakistan, and this can be seen in the fact that in 1989, they gave Pakistan 452 million dollars in aid which decreased to 5.4 million dollars by 1998. While Bangladesh and India were advancing their economies through exports, Pakistan's army was happy with aid. After the end of the Afghanistan war, Pakistan's economy suffered a lot, and it was put on standby mode with the United States.
However, Pakistan's fate changed when the 9/11 attack happened. Al-Qaeda carried out this attack on the World Trade Center and the US was afraid that if this attack was not prevented from happening again Al-Qaeda would have to be completely eliminated. Al-Qaeda operated from the border of Afghanistan and Pakistan and once again, the US needed Pakistan. This time, the US created a Coalition Support Fund (CSF), which provided a significant amount of money to Pakistan. In 2009, the US passed the Kerry-Lugar bill, which proposed to provide Pakistan with an annual assistance of 1.5 billion dollars per year. Pakistan used the money it received for its economy rather than for the US's war on terror It strengthened its army, and it also sent mujahideen to Kashmir along with Afghanistan from the training centers it had.
This was the time when both of Pakistan's hands were in the dough. Corruption allegations were made against the Pakistani army in the aid it received from outside. The US also said that they had misspent the aid money. After several years of providing aid, it was discovered that Osama bin Laden was living in Pakistan, and the most wanted Mullah Omar died in a hospital in Pakistan.
After all this, Donald Trump completely stopped the aid, and Pakistan's economy, which was in a bubble, suffered a significant blow. As a result of all this, Pakistan's image was tarnished, and foreign investment was completely lost. Companies from outside do not set up their business in such an unstable place because they know they will suffer losses In addition, tourism has also come to an end. All of these factors have played a significant role in the collapse of Pakistan's economy. When the US took a step back, China entered Pakistan and began providing loans, causing the economy, which was already in a bubble, to be unable to undergo a proper test. Pakistan's economy is aid and loan-dependent.
it lends money at higher than market interest rates. It provides the loan for a 30-year term, but only for approximately 15 years. Chinese workers and companies are involved in every aspect of the loan's purpose. China makes money from the country by conducting business, and the loan remains on paper, while the interest on the loan rises.
The clauses stipulate that if the loan is not repaid, the land will belong to China. Sri Lanka's Hambantota port has already been transferred to China through this strategy, which is used to rule over strategic locations. Pakistan's leaders are aware of these tactics, but there is a saying that some things are a result of circumstances, and not everyone is unfaithful. It will become clear when discussing it with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that they also have constraints. In 2015, China began working with Pakistan to develop the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) under its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which is also developing a port in Gwadar.
Pakistan is delighted to receive as much money as it wants from China, as it is struggling to obtain loans from the IMF. So far, China has provided Pakistan with $30 billion, but none of it has been repaid, and China is aware that it will not be repaid, but the strategic location will be obtained. The same debt trap model is being used here, with all workers and companies from China. Imran Khan tried to raise awareness of this issue from the outset and even halted the work, but it has taken too long now. Pakistan is pleased with the significant infrastructure improvements made under CPEC, and the money has arrived, Pakistan is happy with all this Roads are being constructed it is getting develop but it is still an economy based solely on debt, relying entirely on aid and loans.
The IMF has repeatedly advised Pakistan to stay away from CPEC. Even if a new leader comes in and attempts to correct the situation it will be difficult because it has been in operation for a long time, and receiving aid is now a necessity, or the public will blame the Prime Minister. Consider this as though someone has multiple credit cards and is using one to pay the other with this one can save the EMI, but this will not solve the problem amount of loan remain same even interest is increasing This is the same concept that drives Pakistan's economy. They do not produce anything, but they take out loans to pay off the previous loan, this is the reason that word "Beggar" is not used for any other country but it is used in the case of Pakistan their PM has said on record that Beggars can't be choosers The current crisis in Pakistan has brought the focus back on the financial mismanagement that has been going on for decades, and the most significant player in this mismanagement is the Pakistani military.
And I am not saying this because I am Indian. If you read any news outlet in the world about Pakistan, you will learn about the role of the Pakistani Army. Pakistan spends more than necessary on its defense forces.
Pakistan's total budget last year was 9,502 billion rupees, of which 152.3 billion rupees were spent on defense, which is more than 15% of the total budget. After paying loan interest, most of Pakistan's economy's money goes to defense. The Pakistani Army has ruled Pakistan for more than half the time since 1947 and has a lot of power in security and foreign policy. They make the person they want to be PM, and no one can win an election in Pakistan without their support. That is why a famous saying is "The army never wins a war, and elections are never lost."
Look at all the medals they wear, but they have never won a war. There is an author in Pakistan named Ayesha Siddiqa who wrote a book called Military INC. If you get a chance, read how the Pakistani army is using the country's money and controlling the entire economy.
Have you ever heard of an army selling clothes, soap, and oil? This is the only army in the world that sells cement, clothes meat, insurance, and real estate. The Pakistani Army controls the real estate in Pakistan, and every general gets plot after plot after retirement. The net worth of the Pakistani Army is more than 1 lakh crore. If you estimate the top 100 officers' wealth, they own more than 35,000 crore. Their children study abroad, they have houses in the UK, while an ordinary Pakistani can only dream of such things. The Pakistani Army has created a network of foundations and trusts that own everything in Pakistan, such as Fauji Shaheen and Bahria foundations which are run by the Army, Air Force, and Navy.
Among them, the Fauji foundation is the largest. The military-controlled bakeries in Pakistan even make bread. The Pakistani Army also owns the banks, one-third of heavy industry, and 7% of total private assets.
First, they earn, and then they amend the law to benefit themselves The Army Welfare Trust and Fauji foundation are exempted from income tax, which their private companies cannot compete with. The army has both power and money. You will never see a poor country's army so rich. Every country has an army, but here, the army has a country. You may claim that I am speaking false. Check for yourself In 2016, Chief Javed Bajwa's wife's wealth was zero.
But when the general retired, his wife's wealth had become 220 crores. What business did his wife start that made her so wealthy in such a short time? The entire Bajwa family's wealth has become 1270 crores. What treasure are they digging up to become so rich? Add their salaries, and you will know they are doing something else. But no one asks them questions because the media and Supreme Court are under their control. Many observers believe that if Pakistan's economy is to grow, the Pakistani army's role in the economy must be eliminated.
But any effort in this direction fails. As a result, Pakistani businesses cannot become globally competitive. And all their profits go to army generals and retired generals.
The Pakistani Army is the country's largest real estate developer. They have more than 50 housing projects including 16,000 acres in Islamabad and 12,000 Acre in Karachi which they get from Pakistan Government for free of cost Army kicked out any higher authority if they don't follow them In Pakistan Prime Minister (PM) is appointed with the help of the army, and the PM is expected to operate according to the Army Chief's wishes. General Bajwa appointed Imran Khan as PM, and in exchange, Imran Khan extended General Bajwa's tenure. However, problems arose when General Bajwa's tenure was coming to an end and he wanted to appoint Syed Asim Munir as his successor Imran Khan did not want Munir to become the Army Chief because he knew that Munir would not support him in the next election. As a result, Imran Khan went against General Bajwa and wanted General Faiz to become the Army Chief.
Eventually, General Bajwa removed Imran Khan and appointed Shreef as PM, and Shreef appointed Munir as Army Chief. All these happen last year and because of this Pakistan's political instability increased, and floods in 2022 submerged one-third of the country, causing losses of around $30 billion. Pakistan is experiencing blackouts, which China is partly responsible for because it halted work on CPEC (China-Pakistan Economic Corridor) so china got dissappointed CPEC included power plants, but China stopped construction because of non-payment, China would never done that, if CPEC work countinued as shortage of power plant result, the remaining power plants are under strain, leading to power cuts.
Without electricity, nation cannot function, Now either they got loan or aid from foriegn and if this does not happen and if a new leader comes to power, CPEC will become a necessity. Day by day situation are getting out of control There is widespread unrest in Pakistan over subsidized wheat, with people lining up for hours and even chasing trucks to get wheat. This has resulted in Baghdad-like situations and deaths in some areas.
Due to the war between Russia and Ukraine, there is a food crisis worldwide. Russia and Ukraine controlled 30% of the world's wheat supply this crisis was so serious that cause India to ban wheat exports from its country. This is very challenging for Indian Government India had a buffer stock of wheat, which Pakistan did not have, leading to social unrest.
The condition of forex reserve is very bad it is below $3 Billion this is very low amount When you travel to another country, you have to convert Indian rupees into that country's currency because you need to buy things there. No country produces everything within its borders. For example, if you want to drive a car or use machinery, you need oil If the country doesn't produce oil, they will have to buy it from other countries And if they need to buy things from other countries, they need to have foreign currency." Just like how you keep the currency of a country before traveling to that country, Similarly Countries maintain forex reserves where they keep things that people in the international market buy, such as gold US dollars, bonds, and so on. Now, if you keep Pakistani rupees in your forex reserve, there is no benefit because if you go to the market and give Pakistani rupees to someone, they will ask you what they can do with it. No one outside of Pakistan will accept it, and what Pakistan exports, such as textiles and donkeys in bulk, is of no use to us.
Therefore, countries keep dollars and gold in their forex reserves, which are accepted all over the world, so that the country's needs can be met on a daily basis. You may have heard in the news that Pakistan's forex reserves have been saved for so many days, which means that this is a very big problem for Pakistan. The situation in Pakistan was already weak and now with the war between Russia and Ukraine, it has worsened. Pakistan's major share of forex is spent on purchasing oil and gas products.
However, since the start of this war, gas and oil prices have increased significantly, and Pakistan's foreign reserves have been depleted. India was able to survive because Russia provided it with discounted oil but Pakistan had to buy expensive oil from Gulf countries. Now Pakistan has two options: either they can ask for help from another country or turn to the IMF. However, these leaders have already taken 13 loans from the IMF and have not been able to repay any of them.
Giving a loan to a government is considered the safest thing in the world, but only Pakistan is a country where giving a loan is not without risk, as it is never returned The World Bank also provides loans, so why is the IMF different, and why does the IMF care about giving money to a country? Let's say we are 10 friends and we have decided that each one of us will contribute 5 percent of our salary to a fund that we will use if any one of us faces difficulty This way, all 10 of us are safe if any problem arises. This way, all 10 of us are safe if any problem arises. The IMF works in a similar way.
190 countries contribute money based on their economy, and the IMF provides support to countries facing difficulty. India is among the top 10 countries that contribute to the IMF. On the other hand, countries take loans from the World Bank for their growth.
Let's say I have a company, and I want to expand it by opening branches in other cities. If I need a loan for this, I can take it from the World Bank. But if I face any difficulty, the money that I receive for support will be from the IMF.
Many developed countries also take loans from the World Bank, including India, but these loans are for their growth. Just like how India had taken a loan of $245 million from the World Bank for the growth of railways now as India earns from railways, it will give that money back. This works like a business loan, while the International Monetary Fund (IMF) comes into play when a country is going through a rough time, and before giving a loan, IMF sets conditions that certain things need to be changed in their country IMF does not give loans all at once. For example, if the loan is Rs 100,000/- then IMF gives it slowly over 2-3 years while monitoring whether the rules they have set are being followed or not.
Like it was told in Pakistan Pakistan haven't followed this rule and IMF is not giving them loan this time However, the IMF team stayed in Islamabad for 10 days, but IMF has not given the loan yet. They are saying that Pakistan is not following the rules. The rules are very tough, asking Pakistan to increase the prices of gas, electricity, and petrol and Pakistan is instead providing subsidies. If Pakistan does this, inflation will rise and the country will suffer in both ways. The IMF has said that the income tax reports of the army are needed to know where the money being paid is going. A poor country, how is the army becoming so rich? The IMF has asked the Pakistan army to reduce its budget, so the Pakistan Army relies on aid and loans from countries instead of the IMF, Suddenly, you will hear that relief has been given in this country.
because they do secret deal with the country The Pakistan government wants to improve relations with India because only then can trade and political stability be achieved. But political analysts believe that the Pakistani army never wants good relations with India. If relations with India improve questions will be raised on the billions of rupees that are taken in the name of the army's budget. So, notice that whenever there is a treaty or talk between the two countries a terrorist attack happens.
In 2008, the Pakistani foreign minister came to Delhi for talks, and there was a terrorist attack in Mumbai In 2016, PM Modi went to meet Nawaz Sharif in Pakistan, and just a week later, there was a terrorist attack in Pathankot. Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari had said that we want to accept India's "no first use" policy, meaning we will not use nuclear weapons first if there is a war. But as soon as he said this, Jaish-e-Mohammed carried out a terrorist attack. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee signed the Lahore Declaration in 1999. However, without informing his Prime Minister, Army chief Nawaz Sharif launched an attack on Kargil, and later, he removed the Prime Minister after staging a coup. Pakistan's public has been robbed at an unprecedented level.
The Chief Justice collected money in the name of dam construction, and even Atif Alsam donated to the cause. However, the dam was not built, and the money was pocketed. A senior official from PIA (Pakistan International Airlines) sold an airplane in Europe. People of Pakistan are being robbed from every department Pakistan Current situation will not improve by aid or loan In long run Pakistan situation will improve only when when the control will be given to Politician from Army Finally, I would like to mention that the link to the audiobook "India vs Pak -1971" on KUKU FM is provided in the description.
I urge you to give it a listen as it provides a lot of detailed information. Thank you.