Toronto Transit Commission Special Board Meeting - December 21, 2020
- [Woman] Are you on the phone yet? - Yep. - [Woman] Did you do that last place? - No, I don't think you can. - [Woman] Morning everyone.
I believe we're ready to go, we've achieved quorum. So we'll get started and it is 10:00 AM, Past 10:00 AM, just about, so welcome everyone. I'd like to call the meeting officially to order and we'll just start with the land acknowledgement. - [Chris Anne] Sorry, just one moment, members, mic check.
Five, four, three, two, one. - [Mrs. Robinson] That's good. - [Chris Anne] Thank you. - [Mrs. Robinson] Chris Anne? - Yep, sorry. . - [3rd Woman] Okay.
Sorry, I'm just, we're just dealing with a little technical issue and then we'll move forward with the land acknowledgement. - [Mrs. Robinson] Okay, good. - Chair, perhaps we can move forward with declarations while I track down the land acknowledgement. Sorry, just one moment. - You can hear her? - Chair Robinson, I think you're muted. - You're on mute.
- I said very inspiring things and you guys missed it. (laughs) Okay, so do any of you wish to declare a conflict of interest? No? I see none. Okay, so that's good.
And I'm going to just move on then, Chris Anne. Just before we begin, I want to remind everybody that this is an open meeting and as we go through the agenda, you'll be required to email requests to speak and to ask questions by email. So it can be as simple as this, just shoot an email to Chris Anne. And it doesn't have to be detailed, just in the subject line, "speak," subject line, "questions," and then she'll keep you kind of in the queue.
So I just want to remind, remind everybody of that. And today what we're talking about is the 2021 TTC and Wheel Trans Operating Budget and the TTCs 15-Year Capital Investment Plan, and the Capital Budget Plan. So we have a staff presentation on the deputations on both sides items. So I'll be holding those in my name because of that.
This morning, we will hear first from staff and staff will deliver a presentation on both budgets, submissions, and then after the presentation, the board will hear from the deputants that are lined up for item one on the operating budget, followed by questions and speaking. And then we'll move to item two, two more deputations on the Capital Investment Plan and Capital Budget, followed by questions and speaking. So hopefully that's clear to everybody.
Again, if you want to submit a motion, please email your emotion your motion to Chris Anne, the Committee Clerk. Yeah, and if you have any trouble with technical, shoot us an email and let us know if there's a technical issue for you, so we can help you troubleshoot. So Chris Anne, back to you. - Thank you, members. We acknowledge the land we are meeting on is the traditional territory of many nations, including the Mississaugas of the Credit, the Anishinabeg, the Chippewa, the Haudenosaunee, and the Wyandotte peoples, and is now home to many diverse first nations inuit MAT peoples. We also acknowledged that Toronto is covered by treaty 13 with the Mississaugas of the Credit.
- Thank you, Chris Anne, well done. So before we move on to item one, I just want to say that there was some, a bit of frustration or feedback from the last meeting that the a Ombudsman had more deputation time. So I'm going to be very diligent about keeping everybody to their five minutes, whether you're on the commission or you're a deputant, I will try to give people a little warning at the one-minute mark or 30-second mark. But there was just some feedback from via Twitter that people were frustrated that they, a bunch of people got extra time and they didn't. So I want to honor the five, the, you know the Robert's Rules of Order and the five-minute mark.
And so I will be very diligent about that. Okay, so item one is 2021 TTC and Wheel Trends Operating Budget. And I understand we're going to start this item off with the deputant, with a presentation. Roxanne, did you want the deputations first or the presentations first? - [Chris Anne] Chair, we'll proceed with the presentation first. - Okay, perfect, that's what I thought. Thank you.
- Thank you, Chair Robinson. I'll start out and then I'll turn it over to Josie. So just want to say good morning to everyone. Welcome to our YouTube viewers and today's participants to the board's seventh virtual meeting, our special meeting dealing with the TTCs 2021 budgets. You know before I introduce our Interim Chief Financial Officer, Josie Lavita, to the commissioners with the TTCs proposed budgets, I'd like to take a few minutes and have some introductory remarks. You know, last year at this time, the board met to consider the TTCs proposed 2020 budgets.
We were talking about preserving all of the TTC services and improvements that we'd worked hard to gain in previous five years, such as the 10-Minutes or Better Network, the expansion of the Express and Blue Night Services, capacity improvements to our subway and surface and the systems. Our short term reductions, our two-hour transfers, and the list goes on. We were in a time of increased growth and increased demand from a growing population right up until this past March when we were carrying 1.1 million customers on a typical weekday.
That was the reality just nine months ago. Throughout this the pandemic, we've continued to carry hundreds of thousands of riders who rely on us on a daily basis. Despite the hardships the Coronavirus has caused on all of us, I can tell you that we're continuing to work hard at building a world-class transit system for the citizens of Toronto and not just for today or the next five years we will have a twenty-five year outlook. The budgets before you today are also about preserving and enhancing services, but in a pandemic world.
Our goal to this budget is to provide a safe, seamless, and reliable transit service, to be an inclusive and accessible service provider. We strive for financial sustainable and innovate for the future. Like other transit systems around the world that pandemic has had a devastating impact on our business, but despite COVID-19's unprecedented service and financial impact significant and tangible progress was made on key priorities in 2020. We addressed accessibility needs, our State of Good Repair, a new modern vehicles and work on infrastructure, as well as a diversity outreach. The budgets before you today protects services where they are needed most while preserving flexibility to adjust our services should demand increased during and post pandemic. This proposed budget also keeps the cost of transit affordable by freezing fares, which is the right thing to do given the economic impact on riders and residents across our great city.
In addition to being flexible, the demand-based service, the 2021 budget includes funding for the following: Vehicle maintenance programs to ensure repairs are completed proactively prior to failure, our diversity inclusion initiatives contained in the embraced Diversity Action Plan, our improvements to wait times for our Wheel Trans customers, provision for capacity for business continuity and emergency management operations, preparation for city council and city direct initiatives, endorsed initiatives, planning for line five, Eglinton, LRT operations as well as the other initiatives that we're working on. Our service integration with our regional partners and automated shuttle service, all ensuring the TTC is ready for and resilient to changes in the future. The TTC will also be seeking approval for the proposed 2021-2030 capital budget plan because of work undertaken during the budget process, amazing work I would say.
The TTC is able to fund an additional 1.11 billion in unfunded priorities and needs within the existing funding. So with that Chair, I would like to call on Josie Devita to make her presentations to board, Josie. - [Woman] Thank you. - Madam chair, Madam chair, Commissioner Carroll. Just before we start, I'm typing this fast typing as fast as I can to ask, could we have the presentation we're about to receive emailed to us so that we can keep track of what slide number we want to return to for questions? - Sure, I think that's possible.
- I was in the middle of emailing it to Chris Anne. - Mr. Leary finished before I could. - Yeah, Chris Anne, is that possible? - Yes, chair, we'll send that right now.
- Okay, excellent, thank you. And back over to Josie now. - Okay, good morning everyone, Chair, Commissioners, and the public. I'd like to take a moment to thank my colleagues here at the TTC for all their hard work and helping move this budget forward to today's board meeting, and I'm pleased to present it for your consideration. So I will start on slide one. I dunno if you want to wait until the members have it.
No, we're okay. All right. So as you heard from Rick, just now, this 2021 budget has a series of things in it, and clearly I think the most characteristic of it all are highlighted here. The demand responsive service, that continues, it preserves priority service, brings a bus service to about 101% of last year, and ensures more buses are on key routes. Again, you heard that it keeps the TTC affordable and there's no fare increase being recommended for 2021. The city's operating funding remains at the 2020 level, which represents a 0% increase, but it does include 796 million of the financial impact that we're projecting from COVID in 2021, which is partially offset by provincial federal Safe Restart Funding that we heard about last week in the letter that was sent to us.
And the amount that's being placed into this budget for 21 is about $612 million, and we'll talk about that more later. And finally, again, as Rick mentioned, through the process we were able to add over $1.1 billion in previously unfunded capital works, 95%, which is going to our State of Good Repair. And it supports of course, the Fleet Procurement Plan that the board approved, and allows us to purchase 300 buses, plan for the procurement of an additional 300, plus 181 wheel trans buses and 13 streetcars. Next slide please. So when we came to you last year, we identified that our key service objectives and outcomes were identified as the following.
And so we want to ensure of course, as a primary goal of the TTC that we provide safe, seamless, and reliable transit service, and particularly in the pandemic environment, that was really essential for us to do for all that needed it. Again, our key priority here is to ensure that we're transforming to solidify fiscal foundation and assure that we can have financial sustainability going forward, another key objective for us in 2021. And the work that we did through 2020 was to ensure that we were becoming and leading as a service provider that was inclusive, accessible, and equitable, and also that we could innovate for the future to ensure system resiliency.
So, next slide please. So when we think about some of these key accomplishments for 2020, we stayed very focused on those outcomes, and despite COVID and its unprecedented service and financial impact, we did make significant progress in 2020. I won't list them all. They're there for you to see, but clearly I believe that the TTC was able to accomplish quite a bit in 2020. And in addition to that, we also had of course, a very agile and I believe effective response to COVID-19. We deliver the demand responsive transit service throughout the pandemic for those that needed it the most in the areas that they needed it the most.
We partnered with the city of Toronto to help the most vulnerable. We implemented proactive safety measures. We had disinfection that began in January of 2020, and we made masks mandatory in July 1st of 2020 as well.
Through our cost containment, we're expected to achieve $151 million in savings to help mitigate the COVID-19 financial impact. And through other works on our capital side we were able to take advantage of the low ridership and actually accelerate capital work both in our subway and in our easier access stations. Next slide. So through the pandemic, what we saw was service being initially provided at 85% and then it increased as overcrowding became an issue. We ensured that the safety of our customers and employees and we focused on education and communication to the public.
Next slide. Keeping vehicles safe was a key priority for us with disinfection that was happening at least twice a day. And we continue to look at, look at all efforts for 2021, including new technologies that are being piloted across all transit authorities. Next slide.
In 2020, we also partnered very closely with the city to help the most vulnerable. We retrofitted TTC buses for Toronto Paramedic Services use throughout the community. We assist the homeless with our, with our colleagues with the Streets to Homes Program.
We distributed over a million masks with Poverty Reduction Office staff and outside organizations. And we move clients with our, with our partners in shelter support and housing to hotels for heat relief and we that continues and will continue into 2021. Next slide. So throughout the pandemic of course, we monitored our ridership and our revenue. We established a COVID dashboard and with daily monitoring to ensure that we could keep track of what was happening.
As you know, when we reported to you throughout the year, we saw low of about 12% of ridership in the beginning of and throughout April, and saw peak recovery through the August period. And what we were seeing today through the gray lockdown is the ridership averaging out to about 30%. This both informed our service and our financial strategies. Next slide. We also monitored rider's use of the system throughout the pandemic so we could better understand it.
In this slide you'll see that we focused on examining who was riding and based on the info today what we see here essentially is that the amongst our different ridership groups that our senior loss was essentially due to non essential travel, for youth, it was essentially driven by virtual learning for high school students, and adults, it was worked and work trip and events-related, and for post-secondary that too was for virtual learning. Overall, we saw the highest loss in adult riders by about 41%. Next slide. We also looked at the riders frequency of use, but this chart shows is a Presto usage by unique riders on a per week basis. To the left, you see a pre-COVID experience by the four groups with purple being the most frequent, using passes. Frequent riders of the green section of nine uses per week.
Occasional is the orange of five to eight, and infrequent is one to four uses per week. So that's the pre-COVID on the left. What this chart shows is that the steepest decline was amongst our frequent users, which is the green area with the infrequent users per part are predominantly and proportionally increasing, which is the blue. So definitely a different mix of usage. So with all this information, next slide, please.
We also had our cost containment and cost management response. And as you recall we really had four strategies that we brought before the board and implemented throughout the year. So we contained costs by realigning our workforce, looking at our in our expenditures and deferring non-essential hiring. As you know, we matched service capacity demand that started at 85% of normal service and adjusted accordingly.
We deferred some of our new service priorities that were implemented in 2020, and we revisited our capital program to see what the impact of COVID-19 had in most, in many cases we differed but in some cases we actually leveraged the opportunity and accelerated. Next slide. So I want to walk you through, I spend a few minutes talking to you about the financial impact for 2020. So as you know, as we re reported to you and what we're seeing based on our third quarter projections is a passenger revenue loss of about 704 million, added to that is ancillary revenue loss through our parking and advertising of about 24 million, and incremental costs of 31.5 million. In total, what we expect is about $760 million. When you look at that gross impact by time period what we're seeing is a, is a cost or an impact of about 51 million in March through the April to September period, $483 million, and through October to December another 226 million.
So how's this being funded for 2020? So those costs of 51 million will be covered from cost containment because they are not eligible for provincial restart funding, which begins April 1st. We also received funding for disinfection of $7.4 million for cleaning costs and the Safe Restart Funding for phase one that takes us from April 1st to September 30th of 437 million. Last week, the province announced a phase two transit allocation of 776 million.
And that takes us from October to March 31st. We were able to use our additional cost containment savings of another 99 million, and therefore we could then allocate another 164 million from that phase two. So for 2020, the 760 million is covered by cost-containment savings from our response and another 609 million thanks to our provincial and federal partners. And with that, we know that 2020 IMPACT will be fully addressed. Moving on to 2021 then.
What we're seeing and projecting at this point in time it's a passenger revenue loss of 725 million and auxiliary revenue loss of another $16 million, and incremental expenses that are now annualized and increased by another 55.5 million. In total, what we're expecting is about a $796.4 million financial impact. Based on a time period we're seeing in Q1, $230 million value. And over the quarter two to quarter four period another 566 million. When we look at the funding sources for 2021, we know that we have the 230 million of the additional allocation provided by the province.
We also know that we have an additional allocation available to us that's based on ridership that would equal another 381.7. We for, so for a total of 611.7 million, that is the residual amount of the 776 that's unused from the provincial announcement. We are working with our partners to ensure that we could try to use that beyond the March 31st period. So based on the residual that we're showing there's another a hundred and almost 185 million for which we do not have a funding source that is identified at this time, but we can continue to work with our city and other partners to determine that source.
I must say that when you look at all of the funding that's been provided by our provincial and federal partners, it's a total of 1.24 billion over 2020 and 2021. Clearly demonstrates a true partnership amongst the three levels of government, and clearly acknowledges the role that transit plays both in the economy as well as in our contribution to mobility across the city and the region. Next slide.
On the capital site, as I've mentioned, in 2020, we deferred a series of projects, reduced the capital budget by 257 million, and accelerated another 48 million that brought the overall capital budget down by 208 million to adjust COVID. For 2021... Next slide.
We again are accelerating some work to take advantage of the continued low ridership, particularly in our subway area. And we have $2.8 million to install bus barriers, that is actually eligible potentially eligible for resilience funding.
And that's being submitted on our behalf through the city and I believe was that city council in a report last week, as well as some other initiatives that we'll be doing on our own that looks at further disinfection opportunities. Next slide. So when we turn our minds to 2021, some of the key challenges and risks that we see on our operating side is our continued need to ensure that we can engender public confidence in transit, additional safety measures, more communication, and the ability to get riders back in.
The financial impact of COVID-19 and TTC for TTC and the city is significant risk and we continue to work with our partners. I think fundamentally the next question is what does recovery look like and by when? When will we know when economic recovery happens, particularly in the downtown core? What will telecommuting patterns look like? What will our transit models require us to adjust to? Our work to continue to advance workforce diversity inclusion amongst all the COVID responses will be something that'll be a focus for us, and we take that challenge up committedly. We're also preparing for collective bargaining marketing negotiations and we know that some of the work rules that we have to address will be things that will be discussed.
And finally, preparing for Eglinton Crosstown in Q1, 2022, with our ability to operate that is something that we're also preparing for. On the capital side, we continue to and identify the need for funding for critical capital projects, we will highlight some of those later on. The wonder is sometimes about the changes in inter-governmental funding.
So the continuation of provincial and federal gas tax, at current levels. We need to take into consideration the impact of the timing of provincial transit expansion projects. We heard about the timing for line two and what that does to our RT. We know that there is a need for a maintenance storage facility by 2030, for Yonge-North. And finally, we're working with Metrolinx to ensure that our capacity for planning and technical support of their projects is in place. Given TTC and city building objectives, we've determined that we need a longterm real estate investment plan that coincides with our capital investment plan, and you'll be seeing that in the first quarter of 2021.
And we also continue to work on our asset management legislative compliance, which has been delayed by COVID. And finally, in our need to that, we have evidence-based decision-making made to ensure that our legacy systems are replaced to help support us. Turning to 2021, again, our focus is continues to be on the four same objectives and outcomes.
So what you will see in these budgets and some of the work that we've identified are priority initiatives that are being funded in our base, that are new requests, or in our capital. And so I won't highlight all these are here for your review, but clearly our need to ensure that we move forward with our matching of service to demand where we need it the most continues. Our need for investments and vehicle maintenance is key. In our capital side, we have a series of initiatives to ensure the safe and reliable system for the TTC. When we move forward on our ability to ensure fiscal's sustainability, we continue to advance our business transformation, implementing service efficiencies and AIG recommendations that are before you and continuing to manage our overtime. We also have funding here to help us prepare for Bottard TO, which is looking at how we use office space in the most cost-effective way and ensure that that our assets are being used at this highest value.
But on the capital side, the continued need to ensure we have a capital investment plan, a real estate investment plan, and our IT projects moving forward are important to support these objectives. As an inclusive and accessible service provider, as you know, we've frozen TTC fares, we're establishing a target for gender recruitment which will hope to see a four out of every 10 operated recruiters being women. And we continue to apply equity lens to our service planning and our approach to our Wheel Transit Service. The implementation of all the strategies that you've just approved are also funded here, as well on our capital, we've ensured that easier access is now fully funded for Warden is Islington, and we've added funding to ensure that more bus and streetcar stops are accessible. And finally the work on an ensuring resiliency continues with our Five-Year Fare Policy and 10-Year Fare Collection Strategy, advancing service integration, opening McNichol Garage the startup of Eglington, ensuring that we have business continuity and emergency management responses. And on the capital side, we have additional investments to support an automated shuttle trial, continued rollout of EE buses, expanding our bike parking, and bike share.
So with that, I'd like to turn to the operating budget. So our Operating Budget Submission to you today is essentially one in which the base budget has a reduction of $13 million year over year. And that is being used to fund or to reinvest in new enhanced priorities. As I mentioned, the city funding that's being maintained is at a 0% increase or about 790 million.
And the only increase you're seeing here is the COVID impact of 796 million year over year. Next slide. You can see summarized here, the Base Budget Pressures but what they do in terms of the funding that's being recommended that does protect bus service, opens McNichol garage.
As Rick mentioned, addresses vehicle maintenance, investing in it now that we've made some improvements it accommodates the inflationary and unavoidable pressures, and then ensures that we are sustainable by reversing what we had were one-time reserve draws. That's made possible by efficiencies, reductions, and other balancing set actions that total almost $70 million, none of which have it impact on service. Next slide.
So overall, the TTC has made great strides in improving vehicle reliability. Now vehicle renewal has played a role in that, but now we need to maintain it. And as you can see from these charts for each of the three modes, what did identifies is the mean distance between failures? So how many climates does it take before we actually have to bring the vehicle back? The purple line represents our experience in 2019, and these green bars show our experience up until the end of October, 2020.
And you can see that in many cases, we actually have had improvements in our reliability where we have either needed or met or exceeded those targets, but we do need additional resources to ensure that we can maintain that. Next slide. On-time performance is showing that on the subway, we are, our targets are being met, and we continue to see improvements in bus, and in our streetcar. Albeit, in 2020, some of it was helped by some of the reduce traffic congestion early on, but we believe that the results in the outer part of the year demonstrates that this is that thing that we're seeing success here. We know that the opening of the new McNichol Bus Garage will also yield some additional improvements in 2021.
Next slide. So with that, the new garage is opening March 21st. We do have savings built into this, budget efficiency savings, because it will reduce some of the deadhead hours given the new location.
It increases bus storage, maintains up to 250 buses, is built on Toronto green standards, and will be operational 24/seven. So when we look at service demand by mode, we did look at our revenue rides in comparison to what we saw in 2020. So in 2020, we saw by mode that bus which is the blue line, was at about 46% of pre-COVID ridership. Whereas the other two were much lower at about 26 and 28, respectively. And so what we have done is taken that information, extrapolated that out based on are some key factors to determine where it ends, and what you see here is our projection for that demand for our revenue rides to the end of 2021.
Next slide. So for 2021, what we're showing you here, based on the experiences at the time that this report was written and the budgets were finalized that the experience that we've, that we are having in Q4 of 2020, which is roughly around 30 to 32% is being budgeted on an average for Q1 at the same amount, so that extends into the first quarter and we see incremental increases at 37% in Q2, 43% in Q3, and for 49% of 2020 budget by the end of the year. It is a slow and gradual recovery. It is dependent on vaccine availability as a prerequisite and economic recovery. Slide 26.
Then shows you by rides incrementally what we are anticipating. So much like what we had seen in stage two and the gray lockdown is what we seeing for Q1. We expect in Q2 that the increase will be more in the infrequent and occasional riders and something more along the lines of stage three. In Q3, we're expecting to see a partial return back to work and to school. And in Q4, a further increase of non-essential trips. That is our current estimate at the time that this was written.
And of course we will continue to be monitoring this. So in the, the end of the day, we expect that the forecast here is one that is potentially conservative and hope over the course of the year, we'll continue to provide that information. Next slide. So on that basis and on the service plan that was before you at the board last week, the service hours that are built into this budget are ones that continue to match service to demand, and you will see to your left or the service hour projections from 2020, versus the '21 plan. And the changes in the groups of the, to the right which accounts for the service efficiencies and calendar adjustments given last year was a leap year, the Demand Responsive Service Plan changes that were reported to you last week for the total number of change. So the key numbers here to identify then on the last column would be that we are going down 303,000 service hours, we have an adjustment to our supplemental bus service, and so in total there's 364,000 fewer service hours overall.
But the key point to note is that in fact, you can see from the demand responsive service change, that bus has actually going up due to the reallocation. Next slide. So when you look at that from a weekly service hours by mode, you can see here in these charts, that to the left if you take, but the top one, bus service hours, that bus is expected to return to pre-COVID service levels, but of course, with optimization to address the greatest amount of needs.
The '20 budget is the dotted line. The actuals that we've seen through 2020, is the green line, and the blue line actually lays out the path for 2021. For streetcars and, and our subway service hours, what you can see is a much flatter trend with a slight lift at the back, and that's in anticipation of a greater increase in the last quarter, and it gives the TTC, the agility to respond. Next slide. This chart outlines in summary form the efficiencies, reductions, and bouncing actions that we've taken to help offset the base budget. So there's 53, almost $54 million in savings that do not impact service.
They include looking at our base budget and taking various actions to reduce our base expenditures of a total of 40, almost $44 million. We continue to implement the recommendations of the auditor general in our procurement area for another net savings of $700,000. And then we have a series of efficiency measures that include, but have no impact on service, the four that are identified on this slide, as well as others looking at contract efficiencies, where we were able to actually save money from the way we procure looking at how we manage our clerical staff in our divisions and our continued management of our overtime bringing another nine and a half million dollars. The final action that's identified on this slide is the use of the anticipated proceeds from the settlement with Metrolinx that will be used to fully fund the actual closure and construction costs on the Eglington and Finch-West routes. Next slide. So when we lack, when we look at managing our overtime, which has been a key focus for us this year in an over above our cost containment strategy, we looked at some strategies to do that, including maximizing the use of regular time resources and leveraging as schedule adjustments.
As a result you've seen we saw approximately a 50% decline in operating overtime between February and September of 2020. And of course, additional reductions are coming forward in 2021 in this budget. Next slide. So the $13 million decrease that was identified in the base budget is being fused and recommended for these services priorities.
Some of which contribute directly to our service objectives and outcomes, and the bottom three, which support shared objectives with city council in particular. So I won't go through them all. I think they they're here for you, but just to say that the first two were before you at the last board meeting.
The next two, which are identified as necessary, are those to help maintain that performance, invest in vehicle maintenance and safety. And then finally the last three are those in which we are ensuring that we have the capacity to deliver those shared objectives. Next slide. When we look out to the following two years, what we're seeing on the expenditure side is a potential increase of about 153 million in 2022, and an additional 59 million in 2023. So some of the key drivers here is the opening of the Eglington and Finch-West LRTs over the two-year period reminding the commissioners that it's both the operating costs and the maintenance costs for which the city of Toronto is responsible as gradual restoration of our, of our 2020 service levels over the two years, and of course, the annual kind of escalation that we see in our unavoidable costs.
Finally, I want to remind all that this does not include any cost of living adjustment, as 2021 is a collective bargaining year. So as we look, next slide, as we look to our revenue forecast in particular, what we're seeing is a gradual increase over the two-year period. We're anticipating more of a return to pre pandemic routines in 2022, on the expectation that vaccination will happen by the end of 2021. And of course, some of the other key factors like employment, how people work, how people travel will also impact what we see over '22 and '23, with an average of about 70% over '22, and about an average of 90% of ridership returning by 2023. In any event, that will be dependent on the pace of economic recovery, and there will be a lingering ridership impact into 2023.
Next slide. So when you combine the impacts that I've just gone through what we're potentially seeing which are directional, if I may clarify and confirm that by 2022, it could be a combined impact of about 540 million, and for 2023, another, almost 195 million. We continue to monitor and we'll through 2021, modeling continues as we get better information, and we will continue to report out on where we see these trajectories flowing.
Now I'd like to turn your attention over to capital. So as you know, we have about now 19.4 billion in capital assets that are used to help support the delivery for services and our Capital Investment Plan, and our 10-Year Capital Plan are the vehicles, the mechanisms in which we ensure that we are meeting our needs. Next slide. So in 2019, we introduced our first Capital Investment Plan and we did that because we believe that it provides many benefits including awareness, education, better understanding of what our required capital needs are, and it does that over a 15-year period. It allows us to increase our focus on what those projects are, how much of it is State of Good Repair? Projects that improve capacity, support growth.
It clearly distinguishes between what is funded and unfunded and the value of investing and the risks of failing to invest. And finally, it provides us a multi-year planning tool which has helped us again, form the basis for 2021. So with the benefits we've seen the results already. As you may know, and to remind the board that in 2020, we saw through the new Toronto Ontario Transit Partnership Agreement, the recognition for the need for critical unfunded subway State of Good Repair needs. We had all three orders of government deemed the Bloor-Yonge Capacity Improvements Project as a priority project with tri-party funding commitment to equally share in that cost. City Council approved the tax levy increase to raise 4.7 billion.
The new (indistinct) additional city funding city building funds dedicated to TTCs capital needs. With that, we obtained board approval for fleet procurement strategy. We began the planning and early works for all these major projects and with the funding for critical State of Good Repair, we're able to accelerate a critical asbestos removal, as well as other subway track and easier access projects because of low ridership. Next slide.
So, just as a reminder of those pro the procurement strategy that was before you, and that this capital plan now aligns with to ensure that we can actually execute on it. Next slide. Some of the early works has resulted in the Bloor-Yonge Capacity Project, now having a solid plan because of that funding being in place, we are using the city share the 500 million to begin that work and looking at executing on that. Next slide. So for 2021, we took a three-step approach.
The first step was really to take our existing approved capital plan, update it, look at our spending capacity, how much had spent, what needed to be carried forward and ensuring that we were aligning our cash flows with our project timelines. Next. We then asked everyone to identify any critical unmet needs that should be funded, anything that required funding for anything in flight or anything that was emergent. And we created an investment panel of chief executives here at the TTC to review and confirm what priorities were possible.
And through that made recommendations of which some were added to the ten-year capital plan that's before you and others, that couldn't be were added to the capital investment plan, which updated that for you. So as a result of those actions, what we were able to do, recalibrate the ten-year capital plans, project estimates. We reviewed all the requirements based on stage gating, we revisited assumption, scope, and timing to confirm what were our capital priorities requirements, and that resulted actually in pushing some key projects out in timelines. And then we identified and confirmed any emerging capital priorities be funded. As a result of all that work, what we we created was essentially about $787 million of what I call funding room.
We had additional development charge funding of 324 million. And together that enabled us to fund 1.11 billion in unfunded priorities of which as I noted before 95%, which the State of Good Repair.
Next slide. So our updated Capital Investment Plan for 2021, is $37.8 billion. And you can see to the left by mode, how that can be attributed and then by category to the right by project type. With most of it, of course, being health state, sorry, State of Good Repair.
Next slide. So when we compare last year's plan, that was before you, you can see here on the chart, on the slide of what the profiling of the 20 of the 15-year program looked like. In total was about $36 billion. With the work that we did this year, what the new profile looks like is what you see before you. Much more, even based in the front and based on the timing of various projects, we moved them to where we felt that they were most required including any project, project dependencies.
As a result, what you would have seen in the first five years last year was about $7.6 billion. And what you're seeing in the first five years now is 2.8 billion that's unfunded. Next slide. So our 10-Year Capital Plan, what are the key highlights as a result of this work? Well, it increases the steady state funding for essential safety and State of Good Repair capital works. We began that work last year to make sure that we could have steady state for key areas, and we were able to increase that capacity with the 1.1 billion.
It ensures that we have funding to meet our legislative requirements and timelines, aligns with our Fleet Procurement Plan, continues business modernization, maintains funding so we can complete ATC line one and adds new funding to our 10th year for ATC line two. The timing of line one and line two capacity enhancement, Bloor-Yonge, have also been reflected in here, and as mentioned earlier, it adds some money for COVID-19 projects. Next slide.
So when you look at the profile of spending over the 10-year period, this is the line that you would have seen in 2020. In 2021, we now see that more of it is in the front much of it reflective of the Vehicle Procurement Strategy, where much of the funding that was sitting throughout the 10-year period that was closer to the back end has now been brought forward as a result of that plan. Next slide. So the first profile there is of the last year's infrastructure projects, much of the, at the backend and for 2021, with the revisiting of that, we now see it in the front end to line up with actual needs and timing. When it comes to our vehicle projects in 2020, the orange line would have shown you again, much more in the middle of the plan. And now for 2021, the red line shows that it's been accelerated.
Next slide. So the major programs are outlined here for you and it shows you how the almost $12 billion 10-year capital plan is allocated, with much of it going to our buildings and structures at 21% and to our Capacity Improvement Projects at 4 billion or 34%. Next slide. So how has this capital program funded? 67% of it comes from the City of Toronto through recoverable debt or the City Building Fund at 6.6 billion and another 544 million in regular debt. Development charge eligibility to 564 million and others, including our internal depreciation.
But 12% comes from provincial funding through our provincial gas tax and the provincial commitment of 500 million for our Bloor-Yonge, the residual funding for our 204 LRVs. And then on the federal side there's 21 or $2.4 billion, again, with federal gas tax making up most of it and the commitment to funding a 500 million for Bloor-Yonge. Next slide. When we look at the 10-year plan that's before you, what you will see from this slide is the funding, which is the dotted line of the State of Good Repair monies that make up this 10-year Capital Plan. When you then look at what is not funded, but you'll see it in the orange line is you accumulated backlog excluding our vehicles, procurements, and overhauls, which takes us essentially to about almost 18% by 2030.
When you then add our vehicles to that, the total backlog is now at about, rising at 32.6% by 2030. So in total, we could see that much of this, but half of it or just over half of it is attributable to our vehicle needs. Next slide. So when you look at what's being recommended today, the 10-Year Capital Plan is demonstrated here, over the 10-year period of 12 billion.
And over the 10-year period, the portion of the Capital Investment Plan that's not funded is 10.3 billion. When you then extend the funding that is available to us, that's known, that gives us an additional 2.6 billion and incrementally, we have additional funding requirements in the other five years. And overall it means that 23 billion over the 15 years is still remains unfunded. The next slide highlights for you what those, some of those key items are in the 10-year period.
We have about 182 million in residual health and safety projects that still need to be funded, but you as you can see from the next two segments, the peach section section, which is about 3.5 billion is attributable to those fleet purchases that we were still requiring funding for. Secondly, there's about 1.9 billion an overhaul programs to ensure beyond 2023, we have funding in place to continue a steady state life cycle replacement. Service planning requirements that have been identified for the future to help us become innovative, is another 386 million, and there are some key building structures for which we have dependencies.
Should we get the fleet procurements funding approved at any point above? We will also need to ensure that we have capacity at Hillcrest, at our Hillcrest facility. As mentioned earlier, there is a new facility that may be required in time for Yonge-North construction currently anticipated for 2030, and finally there's residual State of Good Repair service approved, and in growth projects that bring the total combined amount to 25 billion. So next steps. So here we are today, considering the 10-Year Capital Plan and the operating budget, we've been through a series of meetings after the board meetings today in your approval we'll be moving this budget forward to the city. There'll be a public launch scheduled for January 14th, Budget Committee Review Meetings where we will be presenting there somewhere between January 20th and 22nd, with a Special Executive Committee Meeting and Special Council Meeting for approval. With that, I conclude this presentation and thank you.
- Thank you, Jesse, I appreciate that. You know, it was an exceptional presentation, so thank you. I also want to say a special thank you to your entire finance team, thank you. You did an incredible job.
You know, their diligence and expertise is it's just amazing. I'd also like to take this opportunity to publicly thank the provincial and the federal partners as well for providing essential emergency relief funding necessary due to the pandemic. And also I think our transit minded mayor as well as council for their support during these unprecedented times as well as this board as well, whose guidance and leadership over the past year has really has been unparalleled. So thank you for that, with that, Chair, I'll turn it back to you, or over to Chris Anne for the that concludes our presentation and opening remarks. - [Mrs. Robinson] Hello?
Hello, can you hear me? - Yes, Chair, we can hear you. - Okay, sorry. Can you just tell me where we are at? - Chair, we're just calling the deputants now, we've just had a presentation.
- All right, great, thank you. - Members, I believe we have our first deputant in the call, Tom Reykjavik, go ahead. - Tom, you've got five minutes. Is Tom there? - It looks like we're going to move on to our next deputant, Alan Mule. Go ahead, Alan, you have five minutes.
- We're not hearing anybody. - [Alan] Hello, can you hear me now? - Yeah, now's perfect. Go ahead.
- [Alan] Madam Chair, I would like to thank the MPP for Humber Black River Creek persons for signing me up to speak today, if for no other reason, it gives the rest of us our full five minutes to speak on a subject for the first time in years. This is my 10th trip through the TTC budget process and my 11th deputation on this subject. This is not my first rodeo. Next slide, please. The budget has fair set for $3.25 in cash,
$3.20 for Presto Tap, and $156 for a monthly pass. This budget will pass, but it shouldn't. On January 10th, 2019, or sorry, next slide.
On January 10th, 2019, this board was told that the TTCs existing business model is increasingly unaffordable. Next slide please. On January of 2019, Mr. Leary told this board that there was an impending fiscal iceberg ahead. The politicians in the room and on this call basically said, thank you for your input, now go back to shoveling the coal.
This board and, next slide, this board includes three civilian board members. You, plus one more to be added next year are on the board. Use your business acumen to help bring the best business packages to the TTC. Next slide, please.
This budget has a fair structure that nets us less money for a cash fare and a Presto Tap. Almost 10 cents, less per cash fare than taking a fare and using a Presto for fees. Next slide please. Again, on January 10th, 2019 this board was told that the TTC existing budget model is increasingly unaffordable. This 2021 budget using the same base business model is the 2011 budget.
Next slide please. On November 28th, 2017, the board approved the current time time-based transfer policy. Next slide please. As a mere coincidence a month earlier, deputant was able to show the TTC board the business case for time-based transfers. Next slide, please. Time-based transfers are part of best business practices for practically all transit agencies in Canada.
Then, and now with the 2021 budget, it is part of the role of the civilian TTC board members to bring best business practices to the TTCs that is politically controlled. Next slide, please. When this budget is passed, the monthly pass will sell for an insanely high price of $156.
As you know, I am a West end boy. So from the West end perspective, I bring you the following scenario. Next slide, please.
If you live in Liberty Village and work on Bay Street, if you have only need for public transport to commute to and from work, it is $25 cheaper a month to take the Go Train to Bay Street than it is to take the King Streetcar to Bay Street. Next slide, please. This is how bad our 2021 budget is when it comes to its fare structure.
Both King, the King Streetcar and Lakeshore West Train, Go Train run seven days a week but it's $25 more to take the King Streetcar to Bay and King than to take the Go Train to Bay and Front. Next slide please. In my 11 deputations on this subject I have always argued for more equitable fare structure. I have tried to present a business case where a more equal fair structure would lead to more actual money being raised by the TTC and a decrease in the incident to the fare evasion. Next slide, please.
Unfortunately, that approach was wrong. Not because the facts were incorrect. Next slide please.
But that the politicians on this board don't seem to care about increasing the total funds raised by the TTC or decreasing the number of incidents of fare evasion on the TTC. Next slide, please. You have correspondence before you have a coast-to-coast listing of Canadian transit agencies and their fare structures. The average number of trips to break even excluding the TTC is 32 trips, versus the almost 49 on the TTC.
Next slide, please. Ottawa has the second largest transit agency in Ontario. It has 33 trips to break even versus our 49. Montreal, the second. - Mr. Mule? - [Alan] Almost, Ma'am.
Montreal has the second largest city in Canada, it has 28 trips versus a 49. Calgary is the third largest. I could go on, but you'll get the picture. Next slide, please. It is standard business practice for Canadian transit agencies to their monthly transit pass significantly lower than the 40 trips to get to work and back. Next slide please.
So Canada's Supreme Court has nine members on it and can occasionally produce to dissenting opinions. You are allowed to have dissenting opinions too. Next slide, please. Dissenting opinions are important because they put an alternative interpretation of the case on the record. This can encourage and inform future discussions in the process next time, hopefully with a budget committee that we may or may not have next year. Next slide, please.
I am asking the three civilian board members. I am talking to them and ask if you were added to bring your business active into running the TTC. You swore fiduciary responsibility to the TTC not to city hall, or to the other city councilors. You're the other to do the right thing for the overall fiscal health of the operations of the TTC. I'm asking you to vote against this budget even though we know this will pass.
Next slide, please. I am asking you to do this, to remind the city and its politicians that the board was told 23 months ago by the TTC own CEO that the existing business model is increasingly unaffordable. Thank you. - Thank you. Is there any questions for the deputant? Counselor Carroll? - Thanks Madam Chair. Alan, thanks for your presentation.
But once again, you've zeroed in on the problem of our monthly pass and it is a really difficult bit of math, but I raise once again, the issue that the other transit systems that you're mentioning get a significant operating infusion every year, not just a COVID year, but every year they get operating dollars to help debray those costs from their provinces, Alberta, Quebec, BC. I'm wondering do you ever feel as if the provincial government is giving you any opportunity to make this presentation to them? - [Alan] Through you, Madam Chair. No, the provincial government is not coming to the table and that is a problem, but Ontario doesn't give any more money to Ottawa to run its transit system. It's 33 trips versus 49.
We have to come somewhere in the middle and we have to get the province involved and we have to get the city more motivated too. - And they don't provide any, there's no regular opportunity for you to speak to them on their transportation budget, for instance, is there? - [Alan] Again through the chair. No, I'm sorry, there is no opportunity for us, for the public to do that. - Yeah, yeah. So perhaps a joint event has to be pressed for.
Okay, thanks. Thanks for your presentation, Alan. - [Alan] If I may add to that, you have to get people involved at the city level so that you and the city can go to the province and say what's up and put up some money. - Okay, thank you.
And so we'll to the clerk, we'll move onto our next deputant. - The next deputant is Tom Reychiavik, go ahead. - [Tom] Hello, can you hear me? - Yes, go ahead, you have five minutes. - [Tom] Excellent, good morning TTC board members and staff, My name is Tom Rikosyvec and I'm the Member of Provincial Parliament for Humber River Black Creek and a member of the official opposition. Thank you for the opportunity to speak with you this morning.
Having previously worked at city hall for several years, there are a number of you on the board that I remember well and it is nice to see you again. I'm here to briefly discuss the public health risks posed by packed buses during this pandemic. Before I do so, I want to acknowledge that overall diminished ridership has had a huge impact on your revenues. Your detailed presentation certainly attested to this. As well, provincial government assistance has been minimal and further assistance has come with strings attached.
I recognize your job is certainly not easy, you are mostly left on your own, and I know that you are working very hard with very little. I represent a Northwest Toronto community that has been one of the hardest hit by COVID-19 in the province. Many live in multi-generational households, in high-rise apartments. Many, if not, most are essential workers who cannot work from home. As such, during the rush hour many fearfully pack onto buses such as the 35 and 36 routes. Again, these routes drive through neighborhoods that have some of the highest COVID-19 transmission rates in the province.
There is some of what transit riders and my community are telling me. Samuel a PSW at a long-term care home said, "The discomfort of sharing a limited space with "so many people during a pandemic takes a mental toll on me. "Waiting and traveling in crowded conditions has "increased my anxiety, stress, and overall exhaustion." Nancy and other essential workers said, "I feel claustrophobic on the daily, the entire ride. "I'm eager to get off the crowded bus just so I "can take a breath with calm.
"I'm really scared I will get COVID "and pass it onto my family." Hannah, yet another essential worker said, "I feel like I have no choice. "I'm forced to take the crowded buses "because I have rent and bills to pay. "I just started this job and I cannot afford to lose it "if I am late because I'm waiting for a less crowded bus." Here's what a TTC bus driver told me, "Just this week during morning rush hour, "I had a bus full of people that boarded at the station. "The bus was packed all the way past the white line "that passengers must be standing behind."
This has been an ongoing issue since the beginning of lockdown and once again, with the surge in cases, the list goes on. Packed buses are a public health risk during this pandemic. I know that you know this as well because you have recently added buses to these lines despite your budget shortfall. On behalf of my community, I thank you for this, but more as needed. I've been pushing government to provide you additional funds to temporarily add buses to packed routes, but thus far, they seem intent on letting you handle this alone.
I'm a member of the province's Select Committee on Emergency Management Oversight, time and again, the Minister of Health does not seem to acknowledge the public health issues that arise from packed buses and has indicated that the command table has yet to discuss it. This is surprising and very disappointing. The province must help you in addressing this, and the provincial government has access to $12 billion of unspent pandemic funds. The City of Toronto is the capital of Ontario, I want you to know that your work and words do not go unnoticed by the province. When you pass motions that call on the province, we as MPPs all get them. For instance, I have your letter with me, dated November 27th, calling on the provincial government to reverse its changes to conservation authorities.
I strongly agree with your letter and appreciate you sending it to us. I hope you will join my call to ask the provincial government for additional funding to help the TTC add buses to packed routes, especially in communities with high levels of COVID-19 transmission. Your voice is a powerful one. Thank you again for your time today, and I wish you and your loved ones all the best during the holidays. - Thank you very much. Any questions? Commissioner Carroll.
- Thanks Madam Chair. Tom, hi, nice to hear from you. - [Tom] Nice to hear from you too. - Yeah, you mentioned that yeah, you mentioned the $12 billion surplus that was that was highlighted in the media recently.
Is it your understanding that a substantial amount of that is still there and not earmarked, that they could be acting on it? I asked because we know that the premier probably going to announce a lockdown such as we had back in March and April to start after Christmas. But if we cut service, we'll still have crowded buses. So I'm wondering, is it your understanding that some of that billion is still there and should be in play? - [Tom] Well, first off, I think you, I think many of you remember the premier welfare this time at city hall, this, the second part is I to my understanding, there is some money left.
I don't know the exact amount, but certainly this is something very worthy of funding. They have a health command table that should be looking at situations where COVID transmission is highly possible. Certainly packed buses are one of them.
And I think it's imperative that they help you deal with this. - Thank you. Thanks, Tom, for coming. - Other questions, seeing none.
Well, clerk, we'll move on to our next deputation. Thank you for your deputation. - [Tom] Thank you. - Our next deputant is Lou Israel. Go ahead, you have five minutes.
Lou Israel, please go ahead. - [Lou] Okay, can you hear me now? - Yes, go ahead, you have five minutes. - [Lou] Good morning, City Counselors and TTC Members. I'm speaking to you today as a low-income TTC rider, also happen to be a contract worker and cannot justify the cost of a monthly pass.
I hope I don't duplicate what previous deputies have said, but I think we need to agree on and address the question of fares being too high. And this has been the case for several years and fare hikes will only serve to negatively impact people like myself. When one cannot afford fares, one of four things will happen.
We will stop using the TTC, reducing revenues further, which also creates a downward spiral of ever diminishing services, forcing us to walk to our destinations regardless of distance, weather, or condition of our body. We will not use the TTC and not go to that appointment or job interview, or some other errand because they're simply too far and our bodies can not take us the whole way. We will pay the increased fare and be at risk of being unable to pay other bills, like rent or phone or internet or food, or a few of us may try to get by without paying. That none of these situations is a net positive for the working poor. And those would important appointments to get to or job interviews or low-income, and to whom it monthly pass simply doesn't make any sense. The problem I have is, well, one of the problems that I have is the TTC reaction to this to all this is to do arguably the worst thing that they could possibly do, install fare inspectors, who are not there for our safety, but simply to intimidate and harass disproportionately, the very people who need affordable public transportation the most.
I have witnessed as well has been a victim of this kind of treatment. For example, I have tapped my card quickly on the streetcar when I saw crew of fare inspectors in the subway making their rounds, I approached one. Very openly and honestly asking them to simply confirm that I had in fact, tapped my card, and I can go along my way only to have them turn around and decide that they declared I deliberately refused to pay my fare after an argument where they refused to consider my innocence a mistake or a faulty machine.
They gave me a ticket forcing me to fight it. After stirring about after worrying about this for weeks, I had my day in court and I should point out the courts are by their very nature, unsettling and intimidating, not to mention risking a day's salary to have my say to try to recall exactly the events of what was then several months previous. Before I went into the courtroom, the lawyers told me to plead guilty and pay a lesser fine. And even though I agreed to do so when I told the judge why she wouldn't accept my plee, because in her own words, "I mistakenly assumed "the machine worked and that everything was fine." Now, in my case, I happened to be a Caucasian male.
The stress I experienced and the trauma that still haunts me years afterwards is bad enough. However, I suspect if I were a different race or gender, I might be targeted more frequently and be harassed on a regular basis. I point out that even if fare inspectors were to cost the TTC nothing, their very presence is there to intimidate and cause anxiety, nothing less. We feel less safe with them around.
But I would say that the absolute worst use of millions of taxpayer dollars is to hire uniformed cops to accuse and threaten those least able to fight back instead of spending those funds to lower fares. If we're going to lower fares we need to stop spending on useless, unproductive, and and negative aspects of the TTC. Thank you. - Do I see any questions for the deputant? I don't think I do. Thank you very much for your deputation and to the clerk, we'll move on. - Our next deputant is Dan Bingham.
Please go ahead, you have five minutes. (indistinct chatter) Dan Bingham, please go ahead. - [Dan] Good morning.
You can all hear me now. - Yes, please go ahead, you have five minutes. - [Dan] Okay, wonderful. Thank you very much for this opportunity to speak to you people. First of all, I want to say thank you for all your hard work. I'm on a member of several different boards, so I know the work that you guys do put in and thank you very much.
Now that said, you know, we need that the federal government I would say the federal government, but also the provincial government need to put money into constant reliable funding for the TTC and for transit. I am peer support worker. I work at St. Stephens, I'm part of a group called Member Advocacy Committee, and we advocate on behalf of people that are less fortunate than other people. And eight years ago, I almost committed suicide. I mean, I did try to commit suicide, I wasn't successful.
You know, in my recovery, the first thing I got when I on the start of every month was my, a Metro pass. An