The next 10 years: #Digitization #Decarbonization Reformation Futurist Keynote Speaker Gerd Leonhard

greetings i'm garrett leonhardt futurist and ceo of the futures agency in zurich switzerland it's my great pleasure to contribute a keynote today to the inner fest in slovakia dear prime minister eduard hager diane kosturiak president of innovative dear members of the innovation network all the representatives of public and private sectors it's a great pleasure to have you here today i'm going to speak to you about the future the opportunities and the challenges and what i call the ddr i'll explain a second what that means it's not about east germany so as we're going into that future we are seeing right in front of us that in a way you could say science fiction is becoming science fact you know this famous scene from blade runner with the flying taxis in our reality i just spoke at the iaa in munich and and i was looking at uh examples of flying taxis right there so if we're looking around i mean it's everywhere we're seeing science fiction becoming kind of real like self-parking cars and virtual reality rooms this is the one that facebook just launched vr workspaces and of course the dancing robots and the possibilities of robots doing things that were unheard of just 10 years ago truly we're living in amazing times and slovakia is really well positioned to participate in this because like most small countries like switzerland where i live slovakia is in a position to move quicker and has a flatter curve of decision making and has lots of talent so this is an important angle on where slovakia will fit into that mind-bogglingly fast changing future we're going on this covert times in kind of a yeah rebound that would be a little bit optimistic to say right now it's still very tough but we're heading towards a place to where we're going to learn a few things from the corporate crisis where we're coming out in a way some people would even say a kind of strange golden era that may unfold in front of us after we're out of the covert rebound and i really think it's about three main things that are going to be our opportunity here and of course all opportunities are also challenges policy challenges private challenges so it's not going to be a just a a bed of roses but there's lots of opportunities first digitization everything is going to be digitized everything is going digital technology holds all the cards clearly second one decarbonization right basically moving to uh the sustainable economy circular as the new normal i'll explain in a second and of course reformation the change of how we do things the change of society the change of capitalism very big topic not an easy topic i'll leave it to the end to ponder about this and the future of europe clearly is at stake we have done well i believe in finding consensus for many things including the covert crisis the vaccines and artificial intelligence regulation and all of those things but our opportunity is going to be these three sectors right i'll call it the three bigs so big tech and big science and we are doing really well with that here in europe and we're not comparable to americans in the powerhouse of silicon valley but we have lots of great research especially especially your country to where a lot of innovation in mechanical engineering and so on have been taking place for quite some time big opportunity the next really bigger one actually is what i call big green change in the entire world around us to go towards sustainable economics to go towards the circular economy to do away with fossil fuel to solve climate change this is a challenge yes but it's hundreds of trillions of dollars of new business new way of doing things we have to change our economic logic to make that work and what goes with that of course is big policy some people would say big state i don't really like the word but i think big government is here government has to be involved in making all the principal decisions and helping us to go into that future the role of government has greatly increased and we have to really rely on government on good government and smart government on digital government to bring us forward into that future look at the great examples like new zealand iceland norway finland as opposed to other countries that didn't have wise governance this is going to be so crucial all politicians and all leaders have to have kind of a driver's license for the future an authority of being able to speak and to devise the future because we're moving in the future where it's no longer just about technology you know the cloud and the internet of things and all the things that we read about it's not just about that anymore it's not just about digital transformation the ticket to the future it is a social societal transformation and on top of that it is a human transformation right it's a transformation of what we do as people who we are as people imagine about uh genetic engineering artificial intelligence the change of the workplace automation we have to look at the whole thing together so i would applaud you to take a look at the holistic approach to this and think of a wider way of looking at the future not just as as as a source of revenues or jobs but to look at society and human transformation at large we in this world moving away from this concept of ego systems which has been widespread in industry for a long time if you think about microsoft 30 years ago and lately maybe even apple and other companies like this in the past but now we're moving into ecosystems and apple has realized this just in the recent court decision um where apple is discussing how to become a better ecosystem right we have to become an ecosystem of services experiences products and we have to collaborate the only way forward to solve our really large problems energy water food security disease we have to collaborate and this is where the united states of europe comes in my view we're going to unite much more than we are now this is coming slovakia can play a very big role here as a small country to set the tone of how this could happen take an example from ego to eco as i was just in munich two weeks ago at the iaea the car show the entire car industry is now moving away from cars being at the center but now it's all about mobility the show is actually called iaa mobility now so as an example the ego system of cars is about owning a car about going to gas stations regular gas stations and filling up the car about container ships and basically sort of owned properties and now we're moving in the future where it's about sharing where it's about access and not ownership where the whole thing is becoming an ecosystem right so it's all about digital technology being in the middle and then you rent your car your lisa car you subscribe to your car uh you share a car it's a whole different way of looking at that future does it mean less money for the industry it does not but there's a deep valley in between those two that has to be bridged by being faster and being more understanding about where that future goes in my view it's really all about this when we think about the ecosystem we have to really understand that business as usual as we know it the idea of continuing as we always have is kind of no longer an option business as usual is dead or dying and think about this for a second with the business that you support or supported in slovakia and now there's new opportunities for the example the entire car industry is now ready for new ways of thinking for example about chips and about the use of computers very very big job micro electronics and and the entire digitization of that process a huge opportunity to help the car industry reinvent and go into the future as we're going clearly here at a multi-layered future of many different options about mobility and transport all of them going to be sustainable and green the energy for that has to be generated talking about the most giant shift in any any industry is going from the gas-guzzling car to the shared electric and maybe even autonomous vehicle great articles about if you just look on the web of course you know automatics are gearing up for the all electric future this is a great opportunity for you guys so next generation mechanical engineering digitization infrastructure micro electronics hydrogen technologies that's all very big in slovakia i hear and i perceive that as a really big opportunity to invest and and to design the future i recently made a film on these three topics right big green big blue and of course big government which is i know a big big big black i don't know but it's called the good future and you can find it at thegoodfuturefilm.com or just google for the good future guard my name and you'll find it but it talks exactly about this very important topic we have to define what is good and what is a good future what is a good future for europe what is a good future for slovakia what is a good future for your people for your business for society and that's why i'm so happy we have this this innovato innofest event here so we can talk about it and i can answer your questions on this later in our live chat but really this is to me the recipe for the good future digitization technology decarbonization moving to a green economy and reforming what we want from society reforming our economic logic reforming what we think about what we want and how we're going to get there that's already in progress let's start with digitization uh basically it's warp drive into a digital future and the corona crisis has brought this forward everybody's going online everybody's going remote everybody's going virtual and you ain't seen nothing yet in a couple rooms uh years will be in virtual rooms augmented reality rooms wearing augmented glasses using holograms it will be like whatsapp right everybody is using holograms and that is also going to be quite scary it's not all just good but we're going into the future look at these numbers just in the corvette crisis and this is pen european i think numbers so basically e-commerce and remote working telemedicine remote learning online entertainment all of the booths i think the ceo of microsoft said the other day there's been more digital transformation in the past 12 months than the previous 10 years and i think the adoption rate is just mind-blowing so huge opportunity also big challenge because we want everybody to be uh partake in this revolution and this uh and this digital revolution and ultimately also the next one which is a sustainability revolution we want everybody to take part in this so we have to take care of the digital divide and we have to think larger alvin toefl one of my favorite futurist and one of the most important people in the future was business and then the future movement you could say who wrote a book called future shock he talks about how basically what's changing around us in technology is not just a tiny picture of like one thing that changes for example a different chip or a different way of doing thing is is a framework is all of it put together and this is what's happening right now this is the opportunity and of course the challenge big data cloud computing the internet of things quantum computing language understanding artificial intelligence the blockchain 3d printing virtuality and genetic engineering all coming together you can google more about this just look for gerd and game changes and you'll find lots of stuff but this is the picture that's changing and we have to be aware of the speed and how quickly that's all coming together and causing what i've i called in my last book the mega shifts and you can download this chapter for free at megashifts.digital in 10 languages uh unfortunately not slovak but many other options exist and that's the result of the game changers you know we're basically seeing our society moving towards personalization cognification smart systems virtualization digital twins robotization uh mobilization of course screen navigation i mean everything is the asians as they used to jokingly call it and that is the result so study this and think about how that's going to change your life because that's basically all happening at once now the really important thing about exponential changes not that it's that it's not linear that's leaping but it's all coming together right essentially sort of compound effects of all technologies coming together that is the ticket for the next 10 years that's where we're going and many people are worried about this of course because you know you can think about the future you can say okay data is a new oil that that could be amazing and this is already 15 years old i said that 15 years ago but it's also kind of a new plutonium which is not so good it does you know can be used as a weapon look at facebook and other social media using essentially our data as a weapon of selling advertising and breaching our privacy and so on very very big topic so we can think positively or negatively but i think we should keep a positive view and think about how we can solve these issues but artificial intelligence is now kind of the new electricity it's the power that flows to the network that makes it smart that's the ticket the cloud is a new office and in many ways also the living room we're going to keep working from home we're going to well it's a hybrid working society basically sort of a hybrid scenario a hybrid workplace and clearly virtual reality and augmented reality is the key to sort of seeing things differently our new senses and and that in many ways of course can be quite troublesome because how we're going to control this how we're going to get not addicted and all that cool stuff big topic about digital ethics which i'll mention in a second but in this future these four things that i've listed here they're coming and this is the key question how are we going to make it good right how we're going to make sure this technologies remain 99 good can't be 100 right but it definitely should not be 50 50. uh and that will take supervision by government by smart politicians by uh people who are of course ceos of companies of business is to make it responsible and accountable and transparent definition of ethics very important is knowing the difference between what you have the right or the power to do and what is the right thing to do that is one of the key requirements for the future that's why i'm happy happy we're having this you know a fest event so we can talk about what all that means and what is the right thing to do well that is a complicated question of course it's not a black or white question because the answer is always it depends like when we use artificial intelligence you know we need to make sure that we're keeping the human factor in there diversity privacy disclosure human autonomy we shouldn't machines over have machines overwrite what we want and how what decisions we make if they are crucial to us we should keep the human in the loop at all times i call that hitle right you keep the human in the loop and that is crucial we think about the future of ai so we can use all the benefits but we still can maintain sort of the security safety part because here's the reality we're kind of merging technology and humanity are coming closer and closer with the mobile devices with the cloud with the internet of things and of course ultimately with virtuality and ai but the bottom line is that the more that we connect with technology the more we must protect what makes us human because what makes us human is not technology this is things like storytelling and and foresight and innovation and creativity and mystery and privacy and changing your mind all the things that make us human they are very little to do with all the data science in terms of just running on data algorithms organisms are really two different things and organisms certainly in my view aren't algorithms and when we think about data as i said earlier we have to make sure that we are protected because at a certain level it's outside of our own sphere of our private sphere for example in social media this is all going to be about consumer protection and our rights and i see a great trend in that direction to make sure we can keep our data safe and secure also a great opportunity for slovakia for example secure private hosting and data hosting like switzerland luxembourg and austria have been looking at so i think we should think about something like a digital ethics council i proposed in many countries i think denmark has one now singapore has one now for slovakia how are we going to do the right thing with technology not if the right thing is going to make money that's not enough of a question it has to make money and be the good thing for us it has to be thinking about the good future in a larger context moving on topic number two decarbonization taking the carbon out stopping the burning of fossil fuel changing towards a green economy that is by far the biggest opportunity for all of us because we're thinking we're talking about changing the entire operating system of the globe which is based on fossil fuel it's quite clear now that we are this fork in the road right we are at the moment to where we may have 10 years to actually do this we don't have 30 years it may be irreversible by then the numbers are really totally clear this is a fork in the road moment we have to make dramatic decision and whoever doesn't come along will not be part of the economy because the only economy will have in 10 years is the circular economy look at some of the statistics here which are pretty hair-raising you certainly don't want to have that conversation in the dinner party and spoil the party but looking out the worst case emission scenarios 500 million climate refugees within roughly 30 years and of course the real factor is that developing countries are now gearing up to become the biggest polluters china in india and many others because they want to catch up they want to do what we did we'll probably have to pay them not to do that that's the idea of the carbon coin and the global carbon initiative but you know it's totally clear when we look at footage like this this is from google time lapse um and so what the last 20 years have done not only have it completely changed the world and created more biomass than the than the uh mass of the planet and we've also really stepped up in just 20 years the entire output has just quadrupled in terms of the ppms i mean mind-boggling yeah i wouldn't say progress mind-boggling development and we have to be aware of what uh mark varney a former governor of the bank of england said in 2015 this is a tragedy of the horizon we don't see the rise in that clearly it's not like covet it's 10 20 30 years away further away and we may have no incentives to fix it if we don't think about what future you want this is a question you must ask yourself what future do you want for your kids for your grandkids not just for yourself that is a key question when we think about this feature basically covert 19 was a test run is a test run for climate change all the change that we need to make all the involuntary things all the painful things all the rule breaking that is only the beginning i think about climate change being x100 and i tell you whoever is prepared for this this is the ticket for economic progress this is a ticket for the future as part of the ddr outline that i showed you earlier we're going into a future where dramatic things for example carbon tax are becoming the new normal so what used to be unthinkable carbon tax for flying carbon tax for eating meat i'm not a vegetarian but this is coming carbon tax of course for all kinds of industrial processes but that is going to be the ticket to raise the trillions hundreds of trillions that we'll need to fuel this economy unthinkable is becoming the new normal whoever understands that first has the ticket to the future not just to monetize but also to have a better future looking at the end of oil i mean it's hard to imagine right but this is just 10 years down the road oil gas coal is already on the way out divest your money go into new eras you know areas that are sustainable circular esg of course without wanting to be a fig leaf operation there that's a very big topic we're going into a world that is basically no longer about extracting natural resources which is something that many countries have banked on like brazil venezuela of course the us and russia now it's about creating new resource right the creation economy the digital economy the economy of ideas and this is where small countries like slovakia can really win the price because that is all about coming up with concepts that work everywhere think about all the big successes in the last decade of course digital companies like creation of ideas creation of new things that is where the money is going this is why we're here at inno fest talking about how we can create economy that is based on creation northern extraction very very key point as i was saying earlier about the fork in the road this is basically the biggest opportunity green is the new digital and you've gone big on digital and that's good and continued on that road but now it's time to go big on green green is the new digital and sustainable is the new profitable that leads me to my last topic reformation system change we must change our system to reward different behavior to go beyond gdp to go beyond jobs and profit because it has reached the ceiling and we're constantly jamming against the glass plate on the ceiling and nothing is moving anymore we are now in a different way of thinking about this world as we're approaching the three giant waves of change of course covet 19 giant wave of change of health care and medical thinking and all of the different global debates that we're having about the vaccine but the next big wave 100x really is climate change and beyond that a new economic logic of thinking larger if we don't think larger we don't think collectively we don't think collective benefit we're not going to solve even the covert crisis never mind the climate crisis so we're going to be in a place where we can't solve anything because in the end it's always going to cost money wrong money in the wrong places like carbon fossil fuel subsidies and so on so in this world clearly the opportunity is to think larger than milton friedman you've seen this since the 70s has been a dominant paradigm that basically it's a job of a corporation to make money to increase its profits and that worked well for a while but now we're in a different ball game because of reformation not in the sense of martin luther but an economic reformation of a reset it's the act of making improvement to change the structure of something and the structure of capitalism is changing i don't know what that means in practical terms in terms of finding a better word for it but i sometimes call it post-capitalism or sustainable capitalism al gore but we're inventing basically what the purpose is of what we do let's hear from mark benioff who's a brilliant analyst of the current scenario we do we need a new capitalism we need a capitalism that's more fair more equitable more sustainable capitalism capitalism that values not just all shareholders but also all stakeholders and if we can put those things together i think it can be a new would be very exciting for everybody yeah well he's he's very right on this and the new paradigm is not just going to be profit and growth and more money and better stock performance it's going to be what i call people planet purpose and prosperity what john elk and many others have called people planet profit i go one step further by injecting the word purpose you know what is it all about and what do we want to reach what kind of future do you want to have this could be a ticket especially again for small countries is to formulate a new purpose of what society does and where we are going and there are a lot of great examples again that fork in the road moment towards a good time or the bad time many examples that we're having in the vaccine debate if we're going to solve this problem we only be happy if everybody is happy we'll only be safe if everyone is safe we're going to end up giving the vaccine to everybody around the world no matter what the financial conditions are kind of a creative commons approach and has been uh set forth which that we should do away with the patterns of the pharma industry big discussion not a black-and-white solution but this is coming we also have finally a global corporation tax is going to come in effect next year 15 for no matter where you are what you do that's when 50 years in the making finally has been kind of signed off and it seems to be coming very quickly we have all companies now being redone by their shareholders to think about decarbonization this is all talking about a new destination in life people plan that purpose and of course the european green deal which you're very much proud of that is going to rewrite our society that is a huge opportunity it will be painful to change our behavior but we're not talking about de-growth here we're talking about a different kind of growth sustainable growth growth that we can actually afford think of this as a sort of ticket a recipe for the future could this be the country brand of slovakia around those four pieces and what does that mean and how would we install this and how would we propagate this and the question is would it help us will it help you to bring talent and people back to slovakia or inside them to stay because there's excitement there i mean why do people leave or come and go this is a very important question about attracting talent and and filling the momentum and helping people to fi feel that this is their home where they want to be because it's an exciting place to be i want to wrap up about basically saying okay what do we do with all that now and many people listen to futurists and they say okay that's been great but so what let's answer the question if we can now we need to change the way that we look at our work and what we do as humans we have to move up from that very simple way of working in the past which now machines can do to a large degree just logic internet intellectual knowledge data and information well machines are learning that and they're getting very good at it and ai is going to be able to answer most simple questions but the real part of what humans are doing is much higher on this pyramid think of it like martial or take two right so deeper knowledge tacit knowledge understanding wisdom purpose i mean that is real understanding is beyond computers right they logical understanding is different but zeros and ones don't make understanding it is about the context it's about what makes us human it's about imagination intuition it's about foresight all insights all the things that we have and it's going to take both of course but here's the key i think for any small country as far as education the future is concerned it's going to be about technology science technology engineering and math of course but underneath all of that is what i'll call haki humanity ethics creativity and image imagination in other word kind of art as steve jobs used to say art and technology right this is what we're creating in my view that is the underpinning of success in the future not just science and technology not just engineering the world isn't going to be solved just by technology by science we need decision makers we need people who have influence we need people with ethics we need people who can tell stories we need people have imagination people who are leaders are not going to be leaders just because of logic i mean of course that depends very much on where you're coming from and what your talents are but i would vote all for bringing the humanities back in school along of course with science and technology because this is the reality we are surrounded by technology and we have to understand that better but not everybody has to be a programmer you know that we also need people who are helping us to sort of reprogram what we are and help us rethink about the future i think we need to get ready for a new human renaissance bringing humanity back feelings emotions emotional intelligence foresight intuition imagination storytelling mystery serendipity privacy story goes on even if it's less efficient than a machine it will be crucial to invest the same in humanity as we invest in technology i know that is a challenge when we think about the ticket for the future because it's going to require more investment in general but the bottom line really is this in the end is going to be about the interplay between those two things about algorithms technology and about android rhythms the human things that things that make us work and we don't work better when we get more data yeah processes work better when we get more data but for you it's all going to be about these things and that's what our children have to learn that is the ticket to the future along with science and technology is to be a better human our ultimate job is to be human that's the only job we'll have in the future when technology can handle most of the other jobs so here's the ticket to the future awesome humans on top of amazing technology that's where the money should be going that's why we should think about a holistic strategy not just a focused strategy on one era that will take us in the future so as we're going down the road with the game changes and the mega shifts and speeding up like crazy like somebody hit the warp drive button this is the important thing about the future the future is no longer tomorrow the future is here and we just haven't really noticed that the future is a mindset you want to be successful in your country you want to be successful in your business and whatever segment you're in is going to be about having the future clearly in mind and looking at it and starting it at least one hour a day bill gates has a five hour rule of learning five hours a week roughly an hour a day about the future don't look in the rearview mirror to find the future we cannot project the future from the past or the present the past is history we look at it we learn from it we study it of course but the future is something that we can define the future doesn't just drop down on us so the future belongs to those that can hear it coming this is the future mindset get yourself some ears observe listen pay attention so you can define your future and most importantly apply the paradigm of the ddr digitize decarbonize and reform your society that's the ticket for the future i want to thank you very much for listening and now i'm ready for a conversation i'm going to jump and live and speak to you as much as i can as much time as you have and i really look forward to your tough questions thanks again for innovator for inviting me and for making all this possible and thanks for listening

2021-09-29 20:51

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