Tjena! Last summer I released a video called "Haven XHV - the next 1000x or Scam?" Now from the bottom it’s already up 100x so it’s only 10x left for a 1000x! Turns out 1000x was too conservative! Because if Haven truly makes it, it will go a lot more than 10x from here. So this video will be called: Haven - the next 10,000x or… NOT Let’s first watch the video from last year and see if I was right or wrong. Then I’ll give you my thoughts on what can happen from here. There will also a be a giveaway so make sure to watch through the end! Tjena! Haven XHV is now up 10 times since I wrote this 8 months ago. How far can it go? Can it go another 1,000x from here? Let's cut the noise, let's switch on our own brains and think for ourselves.
I'm CTO Larsson Let's find this out I'm hard to impress Even in Blockchain, a frontier of technology, there are few new, true innovations. We have 5,608 cryptocurrencies on CoinMarketCap and almost all are just copies of each other with some little tweak, and in most cases, not even that. When I first understood how Bitcoin solved the double-spend problem, it blew my mind.
Then when I understood how Ethereum could run code on the Blockchain, it blew my mind again. I was impressed by LINK in 2017, the way to connect the real world into the Blockchain world in a secure way. It was, to me, an actual new idea. The first time I understood Haven in 2018, it was one of those rare moments, where an actual new idea kind-of blew my mind a bit. I was excited and Tweeted about this one in 2018, in 2019, in the beginning of 2020.
First, I have NOT been paid for this video or received any benefits from Haven. I'm just trying to use my own brain and share my insights with you. I try to give you awareness, information, education. I encourage you to cut the social media noise and think for yourself. This is not financial advice. If you need that, seek a licensed financial advisor in your area, who can take your specific situation into account.
I'm not that. And I'm actually going further than that. Tech investment is a game of a small chance for a big gain. If you don't understand what that means, don't start by investing, start by educating yourself first. All right.
To understand XHV, we first need to recap the history of money in 10 steps. I promise it will be worthwhile and it has a key point in the end. First we lived in a gift or debt economy.
I help you now, then you help me later. However, then we need to know each other. Number 2: Then we figured out how to do exchange with strangers. I have a lot of flint and you have a lot of pots, we can exchange some and both of us win.
However then our wants need to coincide. If I want shoes, not pots, we also need to find a shoe maker at that exact moment of time, who also wants pots, so I can give my flints to you, you give your pots to the shoemaker, the shoemaker gives the shoes to me. This gets very complicated very quickly, and there is no evidence that barter has ever been the dominant way of exchange.
So then we figured out money, that we can all exchange to something of reliable re-use and utility, like livestock or grain. An improvement, but big quantities of grain can be difficult both to transport and to store. It moulds over the winter. Coins: Then we figured out that we can swap to something else valuable that's easier to carry and store, like a gold coin.
But even that is heavy if it's a lot. Gold notes: Then we figured out why not leave the gold coins at one central place, a gold bank, and we get a note instead, which is redeemable to that gold, and then we can just exchange those pieces of paper notes instead. Of course Asia was first to figure this out and of course, first in the West was Sweden in 1661, with mixes success can be added. Then we really cracked it. Why not skip the gold all-together? We just issue those pieces of paper, which has no value in itself, but has value because the different parties of the exchange all agree it has value, usually because a government says it has.
"…to suspend temporarily the convertibility of the dollar into gold or other reserve assets, except in amounts and conditions determined to be in the interest of monetary stability and in the best interest of the United States." That's the Fiat currency. US adopted that system in 1971. And of course we digitized the money.
Instead of carrying a briefcase of physical bank notes, like in the movies, if I want to send money to you, we just wire them digitally from my bank to your bank, without any actual notes moving. Now the Fiat is a very loose concept, since you can basically print as much as you like. And as Germany showed in 1940s and many other countries, this system can collapse. And now in 2020, US is creating more money. Here it starts getting complicated. Some feel that is irresponsible.
When Bitcoin was invented in 2008-2009 it was a response to that, the famous first Genesis block of the Bitcoin blockchain "The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks" Bitcoin made three promises. One that it wouldn't be possible to arbitrarily print more of them outside the given system. Number two, that it would remove the need for this irresponsible banking system entirely, and make money transactions peer-to-peer, directly from the sender to the receiver, Third, it becomes very efficient. The bank system needs a million offices with people in them, in every street corner of the world, while Bitcoin can do the same things with a few lines of code for the whole world. And so far, this has largely worked. However, a few new problem arose.
This became very volatile, so great for speculation, trading, which I like, but not so great for storing value, if the real world value can drop by 85% from when you store it until when you need to use it and take it out. And to solve that, enter stablecoins. Then we came up with the idea of stablecoins like USDT, using all the peer-to-peer and efficiency of Bitcoin, while being redeemable to those "make-believe", but still, USD fiat money. Now you guys see exactly where this is going in a circle. Just as we figured out why not skip the requirement to have those bank notes backed by actual gold, we humans are the same.
The we come up with the same idea, why not skip the requirement to have those USDT backed by actual USD Fiat? So then we get the audit problem. Now we are in exactly that situation, where at least I don't know if those 9.2 billion dollars of USDT is backed by 9.2 billion dollars of USD or not. And if it is not, if people start withdrawing, things can collapse overnight. So we have already believed in 9 different systems of money.
Why can't we believe in a 10th system? No reason. Enter algorithmic stablecoins. The Haven idea is actually the next logical step in this chain. That's how big it is. That's why I'm paying attention.
As all new big experiments, who knows what will happen. The first attempts for bank notes were not very successful, but then later everyone used them. Will XHV succeed? No idea. Is it possible? Yes I think it is, absolutely, is possible. The idea is super super simple.
First you buy XHV, just like Bitcoin on an exchange. The price can be volatile, just like Bitcoin but instead of buying XHV for say $1,000 and strong those XHV as a store-of-value, as you would with Bitcoin, you burn up those $1,000 worth of XHV that you bought, and instead create $1,000 worth of xUSD, based on whatever price XHV has at that time. Those xUSD will then maintain its USD value, cannot drop or go up, so it actually stores the USD value. Then when you need it, you mint back XHV based on whatever price XHV is at that time and get a potentially different number of XHV. Or you can exchange that xUSD with someone else, and they mint back XHV, and sell those XHV again on the exchange if they want to cash out.
That would then bring a lot of the benefits together. The global efficiency, the peer-to-peer aspect of Bitcoin. the non-manipulation nature of Bitcoin.
and the store of value stability of USDT, without basically inviting for someone to run off with the supposedly underlaying USD, because there is none, there is no USD, it's just an algorithm. Kind-of replacing the audit concept with code, just like Bitcoin replaced the manual handling in the banks. A beautifully simple idea.
Difficult to execute. Are there holes in the concept? Does this work? I don't know. No one knows, because it's never been tried to scale. Guess we'll find out.
Also Haven has built privacy into this. Is privacy good or bad? I watched the Apple keynote yesterday. They talked a lot about Privacy. I don't have enough overview of that to have an answer.
What I can say is that I think the privacy of Bitcoin or Ethereum became wrong. I don't think it's right for the accounts to be public. I don't want my business partners or my neighbors to be able to unwind my entire financial history, including every payment to my business. I don't think that is good. Bank accounts are not public like that. So I don't like that aspect of Bitcoin.
In Haven, that is not possible. But is it too private? I don't know. But the criminal justice and national security is a complex field and I'm not an expert there. Now, that was the hat of the technology man. Let's now put on the hat of the tech investor. If you haven't got it [the checklist], pause the video, go and download it now from ctolarsson.com
and then we continue. It's free. POSSIBILITY. The asset has a POSSIBILITY of going 10x, 100x or 1000x from here So what is the market cap of USDT. It is 9.2 billion dollars. [June 2020]
If XHV works, it is in my opinion, a better solution than USDT. So, MC of USDT 9.2 billion. MC of Haven is 15 million. [June 2020] That's 600 times from here. So yes, there is a possibility. CUSTOMERS.
The company has CUSTOMERS. They don't have a mainnet product yet* [in June 2020] but I have talked to people who have said they are going to use this as soon as it becomes available, as a stablecoin replacement, so I give them a tentative pass. [in June 2020] Not fully Ok because things can still fail before launch. Maybe the code doesn't work.
Maybe someone runs away. A thousand things can always go wrong in tech. PROPOSITION. The founder/CEO can articulate their PROPOSITION / USP. Yes they can. I've chatted with the team, I've read the website, their whitepaper.
It's very clear, one of the clearest and best articulated propositions in all of crypto. Gold star on this one. OTHERS. The founder/CEO is convincing - will win over many OTHERS. Yes, I think so. I think most people have not understood what this is, and I think they will get it, given a little bit of time.
Some of the objections are mitigated by releasing the code as open source. I've looked at it on GitHub and looks solid to me. You know the saying. Investment is about arriving at the conclusion of others - before they do. So, Yes, check on this one.
GOLD. The trend is up - Larsson Line indicator is GOLD, or an equivalent indicator. Yes the indicator is Gold, meaning trend is up. And if we look at the USD chart, definitely Gold too. So Check on that one. FLIP.
The trend recently turned up - Larsson Line FLIPPED gold recently Here, guys you are little bit late to the party. If you didn't follow me on Twitter, make sure you switch on those notifications for @ctoLarsson, because I did tweet this when we had a clear Inverse Head & Shoulders and Gold flip there. Now we're 3x since then. But you can't go back in time, just don't miss it next time. So what to do? I have detailed instructions in my process but in short, you split your capital so that you are a part if it continues, while you are able to add on a retrace to support levels should that happen, as long as the trend remains up, meaning indicator remains Gold.
LIQUID. The asset is LIQUID - meaning you can exit if the indicator later flips blue. Yes it is, it is a trading asset. When I tweeted this, it was a 7/7 score.
Now it's kind of a 6 since you are a little bit late to the party. Still, if I hadn't got any, and this was the first time I heard about this, I would have taken this bet. If this actually works and takes off, meaning people start using it, they need to buy XHV first on an exchange to then burn it up to create those xUSD, and since a lot of people need to compete for those current supply of I think 13 million XHV, max supply of 18 million, when all are mined, and each time someone converts to xUSD, they become fewer when burning them up.
So next time someone comes on, to buy on an exchange, it is now fewer there to buy. If that scenario happens, I think this can become an absolute rocket ship during the growth period. Also, after xUSD they plan to add more assets like gold.
Then you really see how the circle of types of money closes here right. What if XHV can tap into a piece of the gold market. That is in the trillions. A lot lot of what ifs and buts, but I trade in possibilities. I see this is as more than 10% chance that this one makes 100x and that is a 10x expected value in statistics...
Let’s stop there. I think the video is as relevant today as it was last year. That’s why I played it for you. But a few things have changed. Let’s head back to the studio!
First, the team launched the service. It’s live and it’s working. This is an actual vault that I will give away. Look how easy! You can convert from XHV to xUSD, in-protocol, without using an exchange, not even a DEX, and with 0 slippage. So this one is now a Yes! Something I did not realize last time, is that it becomes a next level ideal exchange.
0 slippage means price won’t move no matter how much you buy or sell. Normally if you buy a lot, you are going to buy higher and higher up into the order book and get a worse average price. Same if you are selling. Normally if you sell a lot, you sell down into the order book
and get a worse price. Here you won’t. There is zero slippage no matter the volume. That is revolutionary.
And they can add price trackers for any asset in the world. This is probably the biggest use case of all. 3. I’ve thought more about Privacy and now I have an opinion. 4. I’ve thought more about the tokenomics.
"Pampamentals" Privacy first. Since last summer two things have happened that changed my view on this topic. First we had the Ledger hack. Email, phone number and home address of hundreds of thousands of Bitcoin holders became freely downloadable on the Internet. A huge security concern.
What saved people is that the criminals can’t see how much Bitcoin you have on that Ledger wallet, or if none at all. But then, at the same time, we have regulators discussing that maybe they should add that, by tagging stable coin wallets with a name in a big database. If Ledger, some of the world’s best experts in IT security can’t keep that database secure, will 1000 government departments and subcontractors be able to? Of course not. That will leak also. Then those criminals would get a complete list of who to rob, and of how much, because no one thought about the privacy aspect. Here we see how privacy helps to avoid crimes, not facilitate it. Secondly we had the very sad military coup in Myanmar - Burma.
I worked there for 3 years, building out the mobile telecom networks, another CTO role. I met Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and I have many dear friends there. Do you think that those citizens should have the right to some privacy, or is the government always right and should be able to see every detail of every citizen? Now that is a military dictatorship instead of a democratic government.
We discussed this scenario when I worked there, and what systems to build and not build. Now it happened. Bitcoin and Ethereum basically put all your finances public on the Internet.
I think that is too public. I feel many have approached the question of privacy features on the blockchain from a very naive and local standpoint. Blockchain is a global technology, just like telecom. Then solutions need to work globally, not just in New York or Stockholm. Banning all privacy is a too simplistic solution, as those two examples of the Ledger Hack and Burma just showed.
That’s like banning https. Or pants. Let’s ban pants! Everything must be public for all to see at all times. No. We need modern solutions, modern technology to prevent new types of serious crimes like money laundry and terrorism.
In telecom we standardized the Lawful Intercept interface and it has made the world safer for decades. Something similar is needed in the new global financial system. That’s the solution, not banning privacy.
Now, before the give-away, comes what you’ve all been waiting for, the XHV tokenomics. Can it really go 10,000x? And what are the problems? Because there are some. Small size is never good. Big is good. A mined Proof of Work coin can’t be too small, because it can be 51% attacked.
But with XHV there is a possibly even bigger problem. That is inflation manipulation. If order books are small, or thin on exchanges, it’s cheap to manipulate price there and since there is no slippage on Haven protocol, you can do things like: First you convert 100,000 XHV to 1 million xUSD at XHV price $10. Then you dump the price to $5 on exchanges. That doesn’t cost much if order books are thin.
Then you convert back on the Haven protocol, and now you have 200,000 XHV. Then you drive the price back up to $10 again on exchanges, and you start the loop all over again. The team has some protection in place, but there is a much stronger defense. What is that then? Let’s park this question for a minute and look at another scenario. What if there is growth? Say you have an xAsset price tracker that is in high demand.
People want to hold it. And they want to hold it on Haven with the zero slippage exchange, the privacy features and all the other great parts. I will take xBTC as calculation example, but the example would work for any xAsset in high demand. Today there are 14 million XHV.
Say XHV price is $10 and BTC price is $50k for simplicity. The first guy comes in and wants 200 xBTC. Then he needs 1 million XHV. He goes on an exchange and buys them. Plenty of sellers thinking "phew finally I got out of this scam", so price only moves up by 10% to $11. He burns the XHV and gets his xBTC. Now there are only 13 million XHV total supply.
Now the 2nd guy comes in. He needs to buy his XHV from the 13 million pool. This time there are also fewer willing sellers, so price goes up 50% before he is done and there are now only 12 million XHV total supply. and so on, and so on. When the 10th guy comes in, there is maybe only 5 million XHV total supply and price is at $100. And when the 100th guy comes, there is only 1 million XHV total supply and price is at $1,000 each. That’s the 10,000x point from the title of this video.
Can that happen? Yes it can. As long as there is a net inflow from outside, through XHV into xAssets, this double effect of reducing total supply and increasing price, will be… explosive. This is also what will will protect Haven from the price supply manipulation that I talked about earlier. Why? Because of size. These inflows can be big. That will make the manipulation game unpredictable, risky, expensive and thereby far less attractive to play.
Now I assumed that Haven has xAssets that are in high demand. So what are those then? In a Bitcoin bull run, probably xBTC. If tech stocks continue after the dip, maybe Nasdaq Index. I don’t know. What do you want? xUSD is a great start, but it’s not an asset you invest in during this period with all the FED money printing going on, right. That actually goes for all fiat.
And as Vitalik wrote in his end of year letter, "Gold is lame", at least young people think so. This could change. If the economy dies, maybe gold performs well again. But I think the right approach here is to not overthink it. Just offer the assets that are in demand by investors.
O even simpler: Give customers what they want. Before the TA, Haven has been kind enough to provide a giveaway for you. I have not been paid for this video. So please do me the favor
and yourself the favor for a chance to win some XHV! On YouTube (do it now) Like the video. Subscribe. Ring the bell. On Twitter: Follow me and share the video. That’s it. Then I will select a random winner who receives a vault with *13 XHV today worth $100 and in the future maybe much more. Now looking at the TA First we had an Inverse Head & Shoulders breakout here at 50 cents last summer: Shoulder, head, shoulder. Then we had an ascending triangle breakout from $2.80.
Breakout, retest, continuation. Now we are very close to all time high from February. Trend is solid up, and there is no top pattern in the chart at this point. On the BTC chart, it’s a little less clear. We are in this giant range here.
Key support is 8 ksats. The breakout we want to see is first this trend line, and then 30ksats for full out price discovery also on the BTC chart. Remember, most tech fails. Tech invest is a game of placing many bets on a small chance for a big success.
Haven will go another 100x from here or to 0. There is nothing in-between, because in technology, you either have growth, massive growth, or someone else will and they will eat your usecase and your lunch. I’m not trying to give any advice, just educate, sharing my own thoughts and insights.
You need to do your own research. If you did not find this video entertaining or educational, try watching the next one. Thank you! Tack! CTO Larsson out. Hej då!
2021-03-07