Why is the tech market bad? The most realistic explanation.
the job market today is bad how would a student navigate it today and move forward so there are many people they drive Uber door Dash they stay home they work as a bartender they work as a waiter and they're looking into different opportunities to change our lives and the problem with those industry is I believe it's just like a hamster wheel what does that mean when I was a waiter when I was a package the driver all this odd jobs that I did literally I have to work 60 to8 8 hours just to pay my rent so you work 60 to 80 hours and you will never have opportunity to invest your time for improving your life so it's like time is investment too some people they invest their bus money to businesses so they make money out of money but when you don't have a lot of money you can invest your time to gain a skill set that will pay you more money so that was my situation I wanted to learn something new but the problem is when I have two kids when I have rent when I have car payments and uh when I have all other bills I have to work so hard that if I don't work for one day let's say I'm missing $100 income I will run out of my budget that months so I'm literally broke leaving paycheck to paycheck so in that situation it's very hard to break that cycle because like hamster will you're constantly running and you're getting nowhere because working in 60 hours pay your rent run out all the money and repeat the cycle that was difficult for me so I think many people in that situation the thing they want to do that I believe is everybody's okay I'm making like $20 an hour right now but if I make $50 an hour 50 time $ 2,000 is going to be $100,000 if I somehow gain the skill set that market wants to pay $50 an hour I'm doubling or tripling my salary where I will make three times more money by working less hours before I was working 60 hours per week and making $40,000 per year now with my new skill set whether it's cyber security whether you're being a consultant whether you're electricians it doesn't matter it could be plumber right it's a skill set you learn certain skill set and in that skill set that because your competency is higher because you're more technical the society or economy wants to pay you compensate you for higher salary which means that now you're working 40 hours less time that you're working versus before and then you're making more money which is three times more money possibly let's say $100,000 or $120,000 I think to break that hamster whale cycle to come here it requires lots of effort now it's been years that it Market was really really good and lots of boot camps open all around the world and boot camp became really good alternatives for college education because first people don't have four years time to spend anymore like they're thinking four years is too much to learn one skill set the rapid advancement of Technologies whatever you learn this year you don't know what AI will have impact on the skill set that you have learned for example a year ago I had to bag content writers to write amazing content for me now imagine all of the sudden chat GPT put multiple prompting it can write for example essays marketing contents opets so many things better than most content writer in the world now I don't have the B for them so now their skill set they were making so much money now today what are this content writers are doing they're suffering right now they're having hard time the rapid advancement of Technology will impact the skill set that you have learned so you don't want to learn something for four years at the end of the four years your skill set is irrelevant so now people don't want to spend four years time which is one problem second problem is people don't have money to spend for $100,000 the third problem is college education is super General so one of the thing is for example people studying computer science and when you look into dice indeed Career Builder zi recuiter for example these are the websites normally job portals people look for job and when you look for technical jobs there's no a single job position says we hire computer science degree the job positions open computer science degree it's not about that it's always database administrator machine learning engineer cyber security analyst security operations centers anal test automation developer for software developer even in software development you have front end developer backend developer Java developer net developers there are so many different field when you ask me Kad what do you do for living I was like I work for aviation industry what am I do I work for SpaceX am I astronaut am I both building Rockets am I Pilots am I flight attendant am I like baggage handler am I ticketing lady so what do I do so when you say tech industry it's extremely General there's no General job though so even though you study four years and little bit of everything for example coding software engineering you have to learn Hardware you have to learn networking you have to learn literature American history colleges want to charge you for more money you end up probably I believe this is like my rough analysis based on CH years experience dealing with maybe thousands of students most of them have college degree that probably if you're lucky enough you will hit 25% utilization of what you have learned in college 75% of the things that you've learned from college you cannot directly apply to your job now really if you're looking at return on investment do you really want to spend $100,000 to study four years and that where if you're lucky you can utilize 25% of what you've learned so now that's why I think boot camps became pretty successful and pretty good people see this is a legit option now until 2023 boot camps had the best time in the history people in the beginning few years ago for example seven eight years ago or 10 years ago companies really were looking for college education like computer science degree required and then companies realize first of all there's lots of Gap in terms of supply and demand why because American society we told our kids oh Follow Your Passion learn rhetoric my passion is rhetoric so I'm going to go to UC Berkeley and get a degree from rhetoric I'm going to get a degree from gender studies I'm going to get a degree from theology for example students learn to get a major from philosophy so now you are imagine that your Apple your Google I don't know your local startup tell me how much would you want to pay as a startup owner as a company owner as a CEO as a hiring manager how much do you want to pay somebody with a Philosophy degree or rhetoric degree or gender study degree how much do you want to pay zero you want to pay Zar that's the problem now what happens is over time lots of people were following their passion learning the things that economy doesn't want to compensate and very few people they learn computer science and what happened is everything everything became computer science everything become Tech startup there's no more Bank all of them are fintech there's even a travel industry became Airbnb or all the apps so when you see that even today cars have software in what makes Tesla Superior is not the battery what are you talking about battery is battery but what's going to make Tesla Superior it's going to be its machine learning technology autonomous technology so that's going to give a differentiation factor for Tesla to be Superior in the market other than this I'm not sure like if really Tesla battery is superior to Honda battery if I would say Honda may make better battery because of their years of experience in the business so that is why today when you see that even cars even showers even homes it's about you know it's empowered by technology therefore there's more demand for technology if there's more demand for Technologies and half of the population is learning gender studies and philosophies so what companies are doing okay we can't like current education system is not producing enough technical worker can do the job so we're going to ditch the college education requirement so they ditched Google Amazon Facebook Microsoft we don't really care about college education anymore we're looking for competency can you do the job good if you can do it we will hire you because of that reason we had a golden era of the past I would say seven eight years of boot camps and boot camp graduates which is good time now starting from 2023 Elon Musk bu his Twitter and he lays off 80% of the people and everybody's like Twitter is going to bankrupt they're going to collapse Elon is going to regret his decision and guess what I see I'm I'm Twitter user now they call it a whatever you call it doesn't matter for me but I think Twitter is getting better so now everybody followed Elon Musk and had like a big Mass Tech layoffs now it's been 2 years almost 2 years I would say downturn in the tech market and now come back to the beginning you are Uber driver you are door Dash driver you waiter or you're a stay home mom and you were thinking there was an opportunity for you to learn Tac in less than a year break into tag you're going to have good salary life is going to be good now you see people graduating from Market having hard time to look for a job too much competition what should you do first of all I want want to make sure that this video is going to be the most realistic video that is not going to say rainbow Sunshine that is not going to say oh take this blue pill you're going to start flying I'm going to be very realistic and I want to talk about what caused this disruption in the market especially in the tech Market when I came to United States in 2008 I came on top of the financial recession the real estate bubble popped everybody was losing their home bad credit and it was a really bad time and interesting thing is I was poor anyway so it didn't matter for me for poor people every day is recession like me so I didn't like really experience recession because I was in recession every single day and then in 2011 I break into Tech learning English and learning coding and started making good money from there my life took off started sideo in 2015 so on so forth which is good life I really had a good life in the United States difficult life better life fantastic life difficult economic circumstances right now just like everybody is suffering in the market now I believe my personal experience okay the good thing is this you're going to hear not a McKenzie analysis here you're going to hear somebody live through good time bad time better time great time and a difficult time and it's sharing his perspective I think which is better than sophisticated analysis 16 years in the US I believe this is the most difficult time that I've ever witnessed in the tech Market in the market as well now let's think about what happened until pandemic I kind of remember let's go before the pandemic I remember when Donald Trump became president okay and it was the morning honestly I voted for Hillary it was the first time I voted in my life because I thought Donald Trump is going to be bad for immigration that was my immigrants like me so that was my perception so I ordered for Hillary and I still regret for that I'm very casual about it and that day I remember my second son he came to my bed he was in elementary school he said Dad Donald Trump became president are we going to be kicked out from the US and because he was going to public school and as you can see I'm a Central Asian we're like more Asians we're not white or something a kid told him that when Donald Trump become president we're going to kick you out that's what in elementary school they told my son and my son was super worried like Daddy are we going to leave America son nobody can kick you out okay you're American citizen you were born here I remember I had this conversation and I thought Trump becoming a president was the worst thing for America but interestingly what happened is I saw the biggest growth in Tech Market in the business when Trump became president I don't want to talk about his ideology his personality white supremacy I don't want to get into that from Pure economic perspective I believe now I look at both Administration as American citizen I think Trump did fantastic job it was the best economic time Market was amazing and our business was growing 200% our students were finding job like crazy now what happened then pandemic hits right and whether there's lots of story about pandemic can't get into it whether it's lab or not it came from China Trump in the last year we fought pandemic and he was working on vaccination stuff like that then the election then Biden becomes a president and we were forced to take vaccines I took vaccine too by the way because I had to travel so I need the passport vaccine passport and by the way this is interesting story in our company I didn't mandate vaccine because I don't believe in forcing people to do some stuff because I came from communism I hate Authority forcing you to do something if you believe in vaccine do it if you don't believe it I don't care anyway we're working from home cares but the thing is I had to travel so I had to take vaccine there's one guy in my company he's a Java King everybody calls him Java King and that guy's like no I don't want to take vaccine I just don't like it I don't know why and interestingly he's the only one that didn't get Co and I probably after two shots I got six time Co so it's like it's like irony of the situation anyway so what happened let's come back to a Biden Administration lockdown first lockdown and uh you cannot open your restaurant you cannot do anything six feet distance mask mandate all this stuff so we locked down at home now if you lock down at home how the hell you going to survive so Federal Reserve printed trillions of dollars and according to some research I don't remember honestly where I read 40% of the entire dollar that printed in the history of America was printed during the pandemic 40% for the past 200 years it was 60% in the past three years was it was 40% isn't it crazy so then I had a guy who has storing mall he was operating he was selling selling some T-shirts and his employee calls him one day hey I'm not coming to work the boss is like what the hell why he's like oh I actually make more money if I'm unemployed you're paying me for example $8 government is sending me free check I don't work I watch Netflix I eat popcorn and I get paid a lot of money why the hell I work for you so literally the free check disincentivize people to work now everybody's staying home they cannot go outside and they get free check what you do now more online streaming whether it's Hulu Disney plus Netflix everybody is like either watching online streaming online playing game online getting education online Ted doctoring online everything we could do we did online even shopping instacart for example online shopping grocery whatever you could do online became online now first of all a lot of people are spending this trillions of dollars of artificial injection of money like a hormone I mean if you take too much hormone you're going to die so this injected hormone everybody starts spending like crazy from the tech Market perspective this is what happened because there was so much demand so much growth for Tech education Tech this Tech that Tech banking startups crazy like that so startups start getting lots of funding because interest rate was almost zero you've got to be crazy to not borrow money because Mone is free so now Venture capitalists are investing like maniac and startups they're hiding like maniacs and now big companies are competing with each other for Tech Talent so everybody was start hiding like a maniac and we had this artificial level of demand for the tech workers so now I believe it was a Jeff bezo it was Amazon they really I would say had the highest impact for the job market what they did is I woke up in the morning I was sometime in the pandemic Jeff B was like we're going to double the salary of all our software development team or our Tech workers and imagine as developer in Amazon let's say you're making $250,000 can you imagine you're making like $500,000 the next day that was crazy your Junior guy you're making 130 next day you're making $260 if you're making $500,000 Amazon is paying you a million do that was the pick then what happened so in this situation if you are Google if you are Microsoft if you are meta if you are Bank of America what do you do now you have to hold your employees because retention is important if you're getting paid for $120,000 in JP Morgan Chase and you know Amazon is paying you $250,000 double the money what you do now everybody in JP Morgan Chase applying for jobs in Amazon Amazon was sucking up all the talents so what do you do now it's price work now Google has to raise the salary of the employees and everybody's follows and it became so artificially inflated that it became super super unsustainable for the companies to keep paying people double salary in the co time people Tech workers they get double salary okay put that as a one puzzle okay inflation can destroy countries if you look at Venezuela if you look at Argentina countries can go down with inflation so how inflation will impact the economy let's talk about that part we have to understand that part too now imagine there's a village there's 100 family in the village and in the village we have certain production for example 100 chicken 100 sheep 100 cows you have limited amount of 100 100 100 100 family and then government comes to you Federal Reserve he like hey stay home okay I'm going to give everybody $100,000 okay no problem don't worry about it you're just going to see $100,000 extra money in your account so you wake up in the morning everybody in the village 100 families they have $100,000 extra money so in this case what do you do in the village everybody's buying TV everybody's buying extra stuff everybody's buying home everybody's buying chicken everybody's buying cow so now the problem is this your purchasing power overnight quadruple maybe increased but the production didn't increase you still have limited amount of houses for sale have limited amount of chickens for sale what's going to happen now everybody's trying to buy limited amount of resources that will dry up the price when the prices up that's called inflation that's the problem inflation can destroy the countries we had probably highest inflation in the past 40 years during the pandemic I remember I go to Costco for $120 I can fill the basket now I get like couple cherries couple watermelons one chicken now I pay $100 I do not believe the official inflation rate the government is saying oh inflation rate is like 5% 8% I can tell inflation could be 30% it could be 40% they will never give you the real number but I know life became so expensive rent became so expensive houses became so expensive gas became so expensive cars became so expensive everything became so expensive now that could destroy the economy and the country now Federal Reserve has to fight with inflation it's their job now how do you fight inflation now if you remember inflation was caused by lots of purchasing you just have too much purchasing power and everybody's buying stuff so how do you stop the inflation as you artificially increase the purchasing power you have to artificially shrink the purchasing power what do you do if you look at American society American economy runs on debts that'ss are fuel for American economic engine think about it everybody borrows money if you're a commercial business your commercial mortgage nobody pays like h100 million for a building in San Francisco or in New York every single business purchase whether it's big or small whether it's office or buildings or real estate you have to borrow money you have to fund a project you have to borrow money Venture capitals you still have to borrow money everything runs on that because that is fuel of our economic engine even your credit card we spend credit card now how do we get that we get money and we have to pay interest if the interest rate is low it's easier to get a debt and easier to pay back but when interest rate is higher it's going to become extremely difficult to pay back for example before pandemic if you make let's say $100,000 you can afford a home for example let's say $3,000 monthly payment now with $3,000 monthly payment you have to buy much much smaller home which is 50% of the value pre pandemic that means that literally you're buying nothing so that is kind of situation whether it's our personal credit line business credit line American economy is running on that and that is fuel of our economic engine so if you want to stop the economy to stop the artificial inflated purchasing power you have to cut the fuel how do you cut the fuel you make money expensive if I borrow $100,000 I have to pay way more interest than before and interest became so painful that people cannot afford anymore so what they do now when you have a heartbreak imagine a train going so fast and somebody just pulled the Heartbreak that's what happened was drastically increased interest rate which which means that the entire economy has to stop Federal Reserve is actually they call it soft lending I think it's they literally want to want people to lose their job if you don't lose your job if you don't get salary caught if companies don't B go bankrupt if the economy is still good people will keep buying stuff if you keep buying the interest rate will not go down the inflation will not go down that's why they increase the interest rate to stop the economy so people are losing their job people are losing their homes and then when you have no money or making less money making bare minimum that you can only cover your like basic expenses rent and the car payment and the food you don't have single extra Penny to spend that is the environment they want to create in order to do that you have to have lots of layoffs and who gets the highest salary in the US tech workers and they were the one that were losing their job there's two reason the tech Market is bad everybody thinks it's Ai No it's not AI I have never never seen a single person lose their job Tech job because of AI yeah content writer I got it if you're writing some poems and Cat GPT is writing it but Tech job nobody is losing their Tech job because of AI people are losing their job for the past two years one it's because of interest rate second is also my theory is remember that in the beginning I talked about during the tech bubble in the pandemic tax salaries got doubled or tripled and it became super unsustainable for everybody so that's how like pump and dump schemes everybody buys those big players everybody start buying Bitcoins and bitcoin's price will Skyrocket it and then all the big players they have collaboration between they one day once everybody start you see it's increase the prices of Bitcoins increasing right everybody's excited oh let's buy let's buy so they increase the price to the pick and then those big shots they dump it at the same time when you dump it in the when everybody starts selling the price of Bitcoin will go down whether it's home whether it's car whether it's any product when you have too much Supply the price go down now during the pandemic they were getting double triple salary it is not sustainable for Google it's not sustainable for Netflix it's not sustainable for any companies so I also believe the big tag players they have internal conversation I assume they're like you know what why don't we dump this people in the market because they become so cocky they don't want to come to office they want to work from home they're asking for massage they're asking for lunch they're asking for like travel expenses and they're so cocky that they're only working 2 3 hours if we all dump them at the same time to the market after few months after a year they're going to realize that fantastic time is gone Time Has Changed now their ego will come to the point that you know what I'm not looking for $250,000 anymore 120 I'm happy I used to be able to pay my rent at least I want to come back to that situation so now the tech workers it's okay if I don't get $300,000 pay me 100k I'll work for you so that that is what they're playing right now that's another situation why Tech Market is bad now today I believe the inflation is a little bit low because I think recently Federal Reserve they had a meeting and they're expecting to reduce the interest rate by September they're meeting every quarter I believe I don't know how long they meet but they meet multiple times a year and every time they meet either they make decision to drop the interest rate or increase their interest rate or keep it same so more than 80% of analyst they believe in September interest rate is going to drop now the thing is this if you make a financial macroeconomic decision to see the impact it's going to take long time imagine that we printed lots of money during the pandemic and then we see the impact of that crazy printing after 2 three years even that you drop the interest rate in September you're not going to see the result for the next six months and the next six months they can gradually drop the interest rate even more and more because now it came to the point that people are really unemployed Market is bad people are not buying all the stuff so it's good now literally they were effective fighting inflation but if you think about all other perspective for example let's say in September we'll have low interest rate is that going to help Market still we have the most controversial chaotic election in my lifetime there's political uncertainty do you want to invest when the market is uncertain do you want to spend money the market is uncertain you don't because you have to have safety precaution so people are watching what the hell is going to happen in this election now I believe whether is democratic Administration or republican Administration you're going to have a new Administration which is no matter who is going to be the president that person is going to be better than Biden because Biden it's not about left or right it's just like literally cognitive decline of a person don't have the competency to run 7-Eleven seriously it's not insult Biden because he got so old that he cannot run 7-Eleven in a healthy manner if you can't run 7-Eleven how can you run the entire country let's say in the next Administration it's going to have healthier person at least can make some healthy decision for the economy for the country okay after the inauguration number one you have more political stability number two that I believe that time time the interest rate will be low enough to stimulate the economy we're going to have a better economic situation as I mentioned debts are fuel for the economic engine you make that cheaper you will have more fuel to power the engine so after election inauguration maybe one or two months the new president will sign serious executive orders and the economy will get better number three I would say the economy is always up and down I believe we came to the lowest point and and it's going to bounce back so anyone wants to break into attch they need to consider all the circumstances that I explained so now how do you want to position yourself if you start to learn coding programming cyber security now you might able to catch the opportunity when the entire Market is getting better because it's common sense it's not exaggeration when I say in the future there will be more Tech opportunities tech jobs than the Uber jobs the waiter jobs in the long run because knowledge economy is going to be always paid better here's why if you in the labor economy labor means that I'm using my arms and legs in exchange my labor in exchange for the hourly weight how many people on planet Earth can use their arms and legs to make money 8 billion people but as soon as you switch to knowledge economy by solving Problem by selling your solution to those problems at work which is knowledge economy you will have less competition because I would say maybe 10% of people in the knowledge economy all of the sudden you're going to be 10% of the entire economy that is why in the long run whether you look at the tech Market perspective it's going to get better in the future whether you're going to look at from labor market versus knowledge Market you can still have Advantage so that time you will have time to prepare yourself to break into Tech and I want people to be realistic it's not going to be 6 months making $100,000 it could be 9 months it could be 12 months it is still better than the worst alternative What's worst alternative there are a few worst Alternatives one is you go to college you study four years spend $100,000 you end up with nothing second alternative is you're going to drive Uber deliver package clean table or being a Vader for the rest of your life or another alternative is you know what I want to gain the skill set the problem solving skills the communication skills the coding skills the Cyber skills to have such a competency that one day when Market gets better companies will be veiling to pay me three times more money that I'm making today so when you look at alternative as well when I was a kid when I was taking a Chinese version of sat there are some answers I don't know right it was multiple choice so what I did method of elimination I eliminate all the wrong answers I end up with the one right answer are you going to be Uber for the rest of your life are you going to be construction worker for the rest of your life are you going to be stay home for the rest of your life are you going to be waiter for the rest of your life are you going to go to four-year College spend $100,000 or is better to learn skill set that is really really on demand and the tech Market is growing anyway regardless of all circumstances and again a skill set so that is the only thing I want to share so now all you got to do is understand the tech Market is not good accept that is a situation understand in the future there will be more Tech opportunity understand that the knowledge economy is always better than the labor economy understand that working from home opportunities when you solving problems whether you're writing codes or doing cyber Securities that job will have more fulfillment in life because I think there's some jobs you can make $100,000 for example truck driving right you make $100,000 you make more sometimes but the thing is this in terms of how happy you are in life is also matters you can drive TR 10 years later your job can be automated self-driving is already there and AI technology is going to replace those jobs as well but the thing is this you might have made a lot of money pay off your house you look back the thing that you won't have is the memory that you spend with your family every night to be able to come home to eat dinner on the dining table talking to your kids tell me what happened in a school hugging your wife beautiful thank you so much for this and that conversation is going to be missing years from now what's going to make you happy it's not going to be your payoff home that you're living with your dog it's going to be your beautiful memory with your family so still I would say knowledge workers they have more time with their family there it's a little bit more flexible because you don't have to be on the road you don't have to be on the office if you waiter you can't work online if you cash you can work online even if you can work from home two three days a week is still great opportunity so now my analysis I want you to take it with grain of salt and make best decision for yourself and but what I did is as if this question came from my own brother I would explain in this way setting up right expectation is the the most important thing you're not going to make $150,000 in 6 months rainbow Sunshine the market is so good Market is challenging but still better than many Market okay thank you for your time
2024-08-12 20:57
