John Michael Godier And here we go Alberto cavaliero welcome back to the program. alberto Hello! Thank you very much for having me again here. It's a pleasure. John Michael Godier Now Alberto. You've written 2 recent papers and both of them very much piqued my interest and the first was on a candidate star for the wow signal a source now. The wow signal is vexing because and problematic because.
The big ear radio telescope had None feed horns and that meant that there are 2 strips of the sky that the signal could have originated from and you were able to find a star based on being sunlight. That might be a good seti target to search for a recurrence of the signal could you give us an overview of how you did that search and what data you used. alberto Yeah, sure. Well basically I used um, database called gadia archive which belongs to the european space agency. Basically it's a catalog of you know you know, containing none of stars. Um. And well your ah you can actually search the stars by the temperature and luminosity red use and mini parameters and you actually can see which ah which of those stars are like the sun which of them are red warves k type of stars. But there is a different by by a varietyity of that of of stars in
that database the data database actually only shows you 2000 stars in every single shirts and for example in the wo single region. There are more than 2000 stars I calculated around. Yeah so more than none so ah, about None in the in the true beams of the of the radio telescope there are two regiongans yeah of the wos in Al Rigan and in total more than None sorry None stars so ah yeah, I try to I try to focus on those stars mainly g and k type stars which could be more similar to the sun. Yes. John Michael Godier And now the candidate star is very sunlike right? So could you give us a comparison between it and the sun and you know how are they different or how are they same. alberto Well I would say that they are a pretty I mean well the data has some error error of in interable and so some inter of error we we don't know None sure whether of whether or not that the star is a sign like star. We need actually more data about For example, the metallicity of the star. Ah, which actually
gives a glimpse of how many planets or the star could have or any planets at all because he disbellived that the stars with low metal metallicity usually has usually have. A smaller number of planets or be not around them or even no planets at all. So the metallicity is quite an important parameter to know whether or not there are planets around that star and we don't know that we don't have that information so there are some limitations.
But yeah, it's quite It's like 1 radius of of I mean the radius of that the star is practically the same as the sand radius muluminosity temperature and I mean there is quite confusionc confusion ah in my paper with with media etc because they thought that I was only looking for sunlike stars and not really I was actually looking for any kind of g typepe star. Type of star which is a huge growth of a huge sample of data and I only found one g 2 b a star which is an exactly type as the sun. So it's like within the d type of stars. There are many so categories. And I only found one exactly and like the sun we can call it sortraun but there of course I am at the sample of data I and that and I took was huge. All j yeah
g type stars k type of stars I didn't ah I didn't look for red dwarves because you know mini redwarves emit. Ah. Flares which ah it is believed that these kind of flares would actually destroy and the atmosphere of the exoplanets or be in the habitable Sun. So and we don't really know which of which stars emit flares and which of them don't emit flares. So but yeah, once we have the data. Of course we can actually also include those red wars that don't emit flares. Yes. John Michael Godier We have to start somewhere because while the profile of Red Dwarfs um lately has been getting better for habitability. In other words, they
apparently flare at their nearer to their poles and that would mean that they they they don't bathe their. alberto Snow. John Michael Godier Exoplanets and radiation. But um, that's still that's just 1 paper so we still don't completely know yet, but the the flare stars are a problem for sure. Um, and then you know the other problem is is. It's extraordinarily hard to look for exoplanets.
alberto Him. John Michael Godier Particularly terrestrial ones around type K the orange dwarves because they're just that right in this zone where it's just hard to observe that you know and look for transits and things like that. So you have to start somewhere you have to start with the sunlight stars. The G type stars. alberto King. John Michael Godier And go from there and since this is really just a proposal to look at that star with a with a radio telescope and monitor it then it accomplishes that it's we at least have something finally from the wild signal to look at in a targeted city search right. alberto She. Yes, exactly and I believe that the most
fascinating thing about this is star. It's actually the distance at which it's located from the from our solar system because she dislocated a none away and for example, ah. As far as I'm concerned they are only research people trying to see yeah about trying to calculate the distance. Ah at which the closest civilization could be. It was written by Mcconney
which is how mathematical a well set researcher. He calculated that the closest civilization would likely be. Located None away and the start I found was is actually located one Thousand Eight hundred that's only a difference of none which might sound like a lot but when we are talking about galactic terms 100 like years is like you know around the corner really really close. So the thing that fascinated more more when I found this candidate is actually that and the distance of course the the mcconney studio does not mean that for certain for certain. We are sure that the closest civilization is likely to be at that distance but well, it's a it's more you know, staistic statistical data. That actually overlaps and seems to
be to coince. Well there seems to be a coincidence in in both articles which were done independently without I mean in the different years and yeah. John Michael Godier Yeah, the mcconi paper is interesting because it does put an interesting constraint I guess you would call it on the distances where what we could expect where we could expect the nearest alien civilization to be found and as I recall it was none and that actually rings true to me because I don't expect I don't expect us to find anything within a hundred light years because of just the statistical odds but yet that's where we look you know in general and I've always wondered you know is there a better way that we could. Search for their stars because the chances are greater but it's also you know the case that it's also harder to see them and you know you get things like the inverse square law on radio where you just you don't have much hope of of seeing them unless they're putting many many many. Terra watts or yada wattson to their signal and that just doesn't seem like anybody would do that? Um, do you think Alberto that might that might be the solution of the fermi paradox is that all civil alien civilizations are none away and very difficult to detect as a result. alberto Yes, ah, it could be None of the answers of course because ah the distances are quite huge. Our yeah well we have been a meeting
radio signals to space quite powerful by our military radio. Our military radar. But but again and it said if there is a civilization out there. They actually have to need. They actually need to have the technology to pick up those signals and we actually have this technology for the last ah eighty years less than None years. So it's quite recently the technology that we have when it comes to raiders and well radio telescopes etc. so um so yeah
the fact that we are not receiving anything and anything might be just because they are too far. But just because they don't have the technology and but they can be you know intelligent species like us. You know one hundred years ago. So yeah I think it's it's quite complicated to answer that question. But yeah I think the that the reason why I chose I tried to make that paper and and try to see if there was any interesting star. Is to actually to search for exoplanets around that star because which is as you said it's quite difficult because a g type star I mean ah, but most of the stars they don't orbit in front of us like we cannot use the transit method. This cor exoplanets around most of the stars so we have to rely on other methods like ah you know a red velocity and for ra vocity and when it comes to g type stars. The bubble of the star is actually quite quite
small. We need a really sensitive. Ah. alberto Instruments to detect exoplanets around gi type of stars. We now have a expression which is an instrument located in ah one of the biggest telescope's optical telescopes in the world and with that telescope we are more or less able to detect planets like earth. Um. Around gi type stars located for a away but we had we we started having this technology quite recently like I don't know a couple of years ago but so now there is some yeah some bull can save them. We can say hope that. We will find be able to to discover truly earthlike planet a white even nerbine who knows.
John Michael Godier And while we're getting close especially with a very successful deployment of JwBst so we can We can start trying to at least you know try to spot Them. You know, characterize atmospheres and things like that. So The capabilities are coming on. But it gets even better as time goes forward because if we ever build luuvoir then you know we would really have a capability of characterizing terrestrial exoplanets but our best shot right Now. Anyway, as far as seeing seeing a civilization is
the radio Telescope and um. This is something we can do right now we can you know say they're they're reading your paper at the Allen Telescope Array they're they're probably going to take a look wouldn't you think. alberto Yeah I think so I actually the other day I came across one Seti Institute a Twitter while talking about my paper and I was thinking that's good on and news because maybe they they realized that my paper my paper exists so they can now. But I personally think that probably they have been scanning that part of the sky for quite a long period. But we're talking about many stars. So obviously if you focus on specific stars. The chances of getting some signal from that particular star are going to be higher and also there are many frequencies. So ah. You know, maybe they
didn't scan that part of the sky exactly or that the star or the you know set of stars in all the frequencies. So so I think it's always interesting to actually make a a specific. Ah you know press on on some sort of specific stars. Not just one maybe but. A set of stars um to see if there is something there. Um and also a setting. The setting institute has been scanning the sky with laser laser detectors lately. And to see well if they could pick up any signal in this same spectrum because you know actually um if you have a laser and you have um, a telescope lens like a fresenel lens you can actually produce a much so powerful signal. Which are which is going to overcome the square embarras log because you are reducing actually a len personal lens to focus. You know the beam of light
at the specific point. Actually this was actually ah a worldway. Let's say it was say thought by enough author. Don't remember his name but but he was thinking about focusing a beam of laser or flight into a solar sail located you know a many light years away from earth to propel a spacecraft. So ah, yeah, an extra still civilization could do the same use a laser. And are lens to overcome the square inbars law and the good thing about the laser beams is that you know you don't have to check you, you don't have to find the frequency of their radio signal. You can see the scene the the you know the signal with your optical
telescope. Or so it's much easier to detect. Yes. John Michael Godier Um, sorry Alberta we're having a technical issue so I have to put in a click here. So the audio editor knows what to do? um. alberto Operate. Is is there any problem with my audio audio or. John Michael Godier Well, it's no, it's my audio if you look if you can see the waveforms. Do you see how much smaller mine are compared to your.
alberto Exactly I realized that I just thought that it was normal. But. John Michael Godier Now that that brings up a question alberto that you know we look especially for the wild signal because it it was near this frequency at Fourteen Twenty megahertz alberto Um. John Michael Godier And I sort of wonder about that everybody calls it the waterhole and that it would be an obvious place to search for alien signals. But that also means that if aliens are um, sending out signals. They may not do it at that frequency because they want to listen for other aliens and everybody everybody's listening to dead air because everybody leaves that frequency alone. Which amazingly we do,
um, we set that set aside you know in the 1970 s specifically for radio astronomy the 1420maker. it's hydrogen line and we did it globally nobody actually transmits on it except clandestinely perhaps. alberto To. John Michael Godier So do you think that that's viable that that we were looking at the wrong frequency and that as you said we should be looking at a very wide range of frequencies when we look at targeted study searches. alberto Yeah, yeah, well I think that that's true I mean most of the search has been a I mean the city searches have been focusing on the hydrogen line because the eighty s believed that we it will be the um. Frequency that
an extraterstrial sim civilization would use to contact us because you know it's the most common element in the universe which we still have to see with them I mean right now we think it's the most common ah common element but our understanding of the universe is not quite None they accurate or complete. Ah, but yeah, um, of course I mean as far as I'm concerned the city statute has been scanning the sky the sky showing and are in None and frequencies between specifically one and 10 gihertz but we are talking about the same. There are more frequencies after the None Gigahert Mark and also more frequencies below the one gigahertz so they are focusing in a wider a range of of weather range of frequencies because it is believed that between one and then and the really of they I mean them and they the environmentalal rhythm of frequency noise is quite low. So ah for us, it's easier to pick up a signal between one and 10 it removes removes quite of their noise from you know cosmic background noise and etc. So ah, but yeah, there are many more frequencies.
There are none of frequencies. So it's for me, it's like um, um. Search for ah you know a radio signal in that huge immense ocean of frequencies. It's like looking for a needle in a haystack. It's point if I mean the whole seti project and the seti community for me's fundamental. They do and really important. And you know work your job for me. It's fundamental
and but important but it's like really difficult to to find anything due to the none of you know frequencies. So that's why I think it's important to try and they are actually doing to try to see ah to try to detect a detect laser pul. And which could be much more similar and on earth we actually use a laser to communicate between you know, use communication between satellites so we are already using laser synance here in space. John Michael Godier Yes, and laser signals are going to get ever more important because if we start sending out as you mentioned light sales. that's the
way to do it you know that's the way to push them. Um the it pays here to sort of dig into just how we. Look you know in radio for alien signals and to expand on what you were saying when we when we look, we're looking for a narrow band signal because a neuroband signal tends to be technological nature emits very few narrowb band signals. But if you're. Actually transmitting something by doing it narrowband it saves you energy you know broadband is very wasteful. You know whereas narrowband is very technological so that's why we look but the problem is that those signals can get hidden among the None of frequencies.
Um, so you have to. Be able to pick it out and that was the thing with the lost signal is that it was extremely narrow band the way the big ear worked the equipment was that it it basically cut just the the frequency from Fourteen Twenty Megahertz and just slightly above it and it chopped it into 10 channels. And search those channels a lot of those None channels which were very tiny while only appears in None and in fact, if it had been one channel lower. It wouldn't have seen it because it was outside of the range now modern equipment
equipment can search millions of channels. But back then they could they only had those 10 and they were just searching around the hydrogen line which that telescope was built for it was built to study the hydrogen clouds in the in the milky way and map them and once that was done. It became a study instrument looking at. You know near the hydrogen line for alien signals and surprisingly unlike most Seti x experiments it found one. It saw one a very very powerful one now that's the other thing in regards to candidate given that it's distant that would mean the wow signal was was sent out at. Extremely high power and if it was through a for no lens though it may not be that high power right. alberto Ah, sure can you repeat this last question.
John Michael Godier So imagine it like this if if if you're at a distance of None or you know something like that and you're using a frenel lens to focus your signal into ah a laser. Basically then. alberto Fear. John Michael Godier You need a lot less energy to do that than you would if it was an omnidirectional beacon right? So in this case, you know instead of it's always been criticized that Wow was too powerful. You know this thing was a thirty
sigma detection and that would mean that. alberto Um, thank you? yeah. John Michael Godier These these aliens were were putting. You know, ah the entire power of their sun or something like that into this signal but not really if you're focusing it so you can get by with a lot less energy and still produce a powerful signal if you're pointing it straight at your Target. So it seems likely that that they if they were. If they were actually sending this signal that way they meant it for us
wouldn't you think that. alberto Yes, of course I mean and I think that we don't really know how much power how much energy an extrater steel simation would have maybe they have much more than us for them that amount of energy is quite normal. Something that maybe for us would be like a huge consumption of energy. Yeah, like actually we're trying
to send you know? Ah, there is ah the starshot project that intends to send nano crafts to proximaity using an an array of lasers. Using 100 giga watts of power and we still don't have you know we are not able to reach that amount of energy for for this I mean for this specific use. Um, but maybe you know for an extra extratertial simpl civilization 100 giga watts of power is a the consumption of a single family who always know. But but yeah of course I agree I'd say in that aspect also the other aspect and that makes ah the seem out to be boldly questionable is that it was not modulated. It was just a signal a beam of energy without know without any message in it. So ah. And we don't know I mean if there was actually an extrad message. It would probably modulate it because they would be
sending you know a message like the ones we have sent and like humanity have sent to another planet with a message on it and this one but also on the other side. It was not modulated but. We only we were only able to pick it up for for sorry 72 seconds so maybe those 72 seconds you know were not modulated by but the the rest of the message that we missed and we didn't pick up maybe the rest of the message was actually modulated so who knows now. But I think the most interesting thing about the washil is that that it never repeated because um, actually the the same thing that makes it that to be unlikely of extra christ or even in my opinion is it. Ah, it's an important point because we have never received sets of weird signal. it's not like it's not like for example fast radio bursts which which
are actually None fast ready bursts in the sky every single day and and we don't know what they are quite good, but but there are many but they will see no we haven't as first I'm concerned we have not received. Any signal like that at all so in my opinion that makes that signal a pretty weird and and yeah, yeah, it could. It could be said that the fact that the seina did not repeat means that it was a natural event but actually the seam loss we have sent to another to other potentially habitable planets.
alberto Our own signals did not repeat or last for a long period of time either. So but and and actually we have not sent any with the signal in the hydrogen line using the Hydrogen line line as far as I'm concerned. So ah, so yeah, it could actually be anything. John Michael Godier Yeah, well,, That's just it I mean for take the take the Arecebo Signal. You know the the the one very powerful Signal. We sent out art. Frequency that we we did that at was set by the intent of the radar that it actually was you know it was designed to radar asteroids and we sent out that signal at the frequency we did because that's what the equipment could do. We did not send it at the Hydrogen
Line. So. It was very ad hoc. So if you if you apply that to aliens then it's not surprising that that we wouldn't see them because they're very very transient just like we are but you do have some hope things like radar. Maybe you know very powerful signals. But interestingly. Those signals contain no message just like Wow there. There's nothing there. There's
no no modulation or at least not not modulation that you would use to communicate something so it's it's entirely possible that we're seeing signals. alberto Soon. John Michael Godier But we just don't have enough to go on to to recognize them I mean you know it it could be that we're we're seeing aliens every day you know near the hydrogen line but the communications are just so obscure that we don't know that That's what that is you know because transient signals do come in. Still. alberto This room. John Michael Godier You know, nothing quite like Wow but they they still come in but they get discarded. So do you think that there's a high probability that we might have actually detected aliens and just miss it. Missed it.
alberto Yeah I think that's perfectly perfectly possible because so we don't really know the language of fin traditional civilization. So Maybe those you know sinma were encoded in ah a language that we don't really understand so ah. Forever. We use a binary code ones and Zeros to send to send a message with None and that composition. But but you know and maybe they are using know they or their form to to communicate with us or to communicate you know to send interstellar messages. Maybe they don't use the binary code code. So Ah so yeah, maybe we don't understand and then
the you know the language that they are that they are using on. Yeah, basically that yeah. John Michael Godier We? Well we also don't know about time frames and repetition. So en alienling civilization that wanted to contact us might say well we're going to send them a message periodically and that period is goingnna be once every 400 years because that. That how long they they they they operate you know their their
timeframes and that's a total unknown because it's completely unpredictable. You don't know what what time intervals an alien would choose just to contact you so that you know us fast humans. You know that only live for 80 years or whatever. alberto Um, yeah. The um. John Michael Godier We We were just too impatient to look long enough to see the pattern you know So that's why people people don't realize just how hard seti searches are because and it it shouldn't be surprising that nothing's been seen yet and I wouldn't want to say based on the on the corpus of information that we've. alberto None you know. John Michael Godier Built over the last fifty years we got a lot more looking to do before we can say anything you know people like to say well there there are no aliens or else you'd have seen a radio signal by now boom that's not true. Ah come
back and talk to me in about 5 or 600 years then we might be able to say that. alberto Yeah, yes, of course I mean the timeframes of financial search is still subation could be totally different than our So yeah, the fact that again, maybe they might they might not be actually sending any message. John Michael Godier Do you agree. alberto For this same reason that we are not sending any messages because and we are kind of afraid of you know of the possibility that malicial civilization could pick up the signal. So actually we haven't been meeting quite a small number of messages and to outer space I mean to specific habitable planets. And you seen you know specific frequencies but on the other hand we have also some radar on the earth I think it's called egling the egling us space force radar which actually emits the radio symance with a power of thirty two Megawatts which is quite a huge amount of power if we compare it for example with the wo reply which was sent in 2012 by the ah a receible optionha battery and it used only 1 mema wat so we havet shown we have actually been a met red seen us much more powerful than they one say we use for intersandlar communication. And
um, and yeah and those s signals are written or they'd say ah encoded in our wrong language so which can be misunderstood by you know? Ah, ah, you know a natural event because so. As you said you know of course the ones we send for interssterra communication try to repeat in a temporal pattern but the the ones used for military communication. Not necessarily is so they just contain messages of both secret content content. so but so yeah it's it's
quite that huge and that's why yeah I think laser would be the solution. Yes. John Michael Godier And now that brings us to your None recent paper malicious aliens and the idea that we could maybe estimate based on our own history. The likelihood of coming across a malicious Alien civilization and if that likelihood is low. Then we can start looking into things like medi and sending out much much more comprehensive coherent messages to try to make contact with an Alien civilization. So The question. Everybody's
going to have is how would you come up with how likely is it that if we do. Run into an Alien civilization that it will be malicious and dangerous to. alberto Yes, well I my research? Well none of all I have to say two things. None of all, my research is quite as Speculla deep you say speak a lot of speculation because ah and bold that on the None hand and on the other hand well on the one hand that. I know I have to say that that when it comes to the drake equation I'm trying to determine how many civilizations there are in general and in in space is quite as speculative because there there can be between 0 and you know around None according to macconi so there can be. It could be any number between between those None numbers. So it's quite a speculation. Both of I mean the drug equation and and this
research they're trying to determine me how many maliciousation could how many malicious superizations could be out there on the None hand and that and on the other hand a. We are talking about a sample of just one soposition I'm trying to what I did in my research was to extra strapolate the data that we know and we only know about the life on one planet. So it's the sample you're using is just one so then it's a huge limitation. Also yeah, there is another limitation which is in that sense. We're thinking about ah the behavior of humanity which might not be the same than as this has the behavior of anctuary style sim civilization due to a different composition of the brain. But so yeah, what? what they
did was actually yes a well I came up with a really small a probability. But and that's learned largely based on the fact that there are many potentially habitable planets. We're talking about None potentially habitable planets and the probability of a. Existing complex life in any of them is quite low. So therefore the probability of any of those complex life
forms being malicious. It's also it has to be also low so in that regard. That's why it's quite low. John Michael Godier Yeah I could see if if the civilizations are biological and are like us. Um, not only is the probability low There's there's also the distance you know it's asking a lot to say. We're going to travel a thousand light years and attack that planet. Yeah, that's asking a lot and I think that that everybody's basically
going to conclude that there's plenty of real estate in the galaxy and you don't really need to engage in in warfare of that expense you know I mean it would be the most expensive thing a civilization could ever do. alberto Smith. John Michael Godier Would be to send a battle fleet somewhere to attack a planet. So I think the likelihood there is low. What worries me is the dividing line between biological and technological. So eventually if you have a civilization that's a machine civilization. alberto Um, yeah.
John Michael Godier And Seth Schstack has has actually made that bet that that when we do pick up a signal. It's more likely that what's on the other end is a machine that's where you could really get into an arch malicious civilization that just has no interest or respect for biology. alberto And. John Michael Godier And might come through your star system looking for raw materials and just not even acknowledge that you're there. It just takes you out. That's that's what worries the difference student biology and technology because it's a wild card but with biology I tend to agree with you that you know humans.
alberto Um, yeah. John Michael Godier Can do terrible things but most of the time we don't you know most of the time we're just you know going to work and and you know having lunch and things like that. So I tend to take ah some some measure of comfort from that that we're not all bad. You know most of the time. alberto Um, yeah. Um, fin. alberto Yes, of course I actually will a what I did was say to None None of all to calculate the probability of well how Manyas have been to have taken on place on earth in the last one hundred years John Michael Godier Um, do you agree with that. alberto And then I extrapolated that to ah type None civilization based on how you know humanity would behave in the in the future once we become a type one civilization and and of course right now actually the the numbers came with a conclusion that the us as humanity we are more dangerous. Than a humanity in
the future based you know on that kind of extrapolation of the data and I was thinking that of course right now on the earth there is more or less 5% of the population of the earth is psychopath or psychopath. They have psychopathological behaviors. And and you can say of course maybe you know an alienpc in the brain composition of of an of an extraterstial simplation is ah completely different and than ours and they have much less empathy much more many more psycho psychopathology behaviors. But if we take a look on those cases on earth on earth we have psychopaths and and these kind of people and we can realize that they are these people struggle to survive they they have many problems. So for me, it's really difficult to see how these kind of people would a evolve and develop to ah if um, I mean if all the population were like that like that 5% that we have on earth if for me, it's really difficult to see how they could develop. To ah to a much advanced civil civilization if now on earth they can barely you know, ah integrate with ah and not just integrate but you know cooper cooperation is fundamental in my opinion to the but development of a civilization and usually psychopaths are people. And that don't cooperate they want they are selfish people. They want everything for themselves. So I don't see you know in
terms of you know psychology I don't see how they would be able to develop because so we have that sample we can actually analyze and study. And they and psychopaths here on earth to understand how an intelligent this species species would be actually would actually behave if all of them were like that. No, but as you as you said some you know a extraordinary stillation could actually we. Robotic and they they might not be humanoids or they might be just machines. But maybe you in in that sense. Maybe you know I I believe that those machines but probably they would have those machines would have been built.
alberto By some sort of you know intelligence like us so here on earth on earth. For example, we are trying to you know, but not nerve right now is still but they they be able would be to you know to integrate it the None laws to machines so they would not cause any harm. So at some point I mean they they they the intelligent I mean humanity would actually have some sort of control over the machines.
But as you said it's ah at some point in history that control could have could be lost and you know the machines could actually overcome and but um. Overtake it though. The human control and start operating by themselves and you know forget that those should be lost or whatever loss and infrastructure still subation would place over their machines. So yeah, any scenario would be possibly in my opinion. Yes. John Michael Godier And it's just so very like it could go either way you could end up with a machine that was originally programmed with ethics that is actually has 0 psychopaths. In other words, the whole machine civilization. Every machine entity within it is perfectly sane and they don't attack. Anybody.
alberto For me. John Michael Godier Or they it could go the other way and it's 100% what we would define as psychopathic because being self-centered and all of those things that go with that is very good for survival in a universe that has finite resources so it's it's interesting. It's scary to speculate about. But. alberto Um, tell him. John Michael Godier But fun nonetheless. However, that you could actually put a number on it was interesting and I think it overall tells us that it's probably not that dangerous that we're visible. You know, um that anybody could you know within
sufficient distance of us could see us right now with what we're you know, producing. alberto See. John Michael Godier Which is you know that Probability is low. Actually it's not that bad because number one there's probably not an Alien civilization close by and number 2 they probably are not going to travel the great distances to do anything to us. So It's probably safe in this case to actually message. And actively try
to contact Alien Civilizations. Don't you think. alberto Yeah, actually came up with specific numbers I mean ah if we were talking for example about, but but I mean paper was actually focused on trying to see the likelihood of invasion or and the likelihood of finding a malicious civilization among. Those planets that we send a message to because otherwise it's quite difficult that you know even if considering that yeah we have military radar or powerful but but but but still the distances so are quite large and they might not have the technology to pick up the signals. But yeah I was marked. You know I was specifically trying to see ah okay yeah, we are actually em meeting quite powerful redance by our military raiders and we are having actually been meeting ra signalon sending reducing us to specific a potentially habitable planets. Okay, what is the likelihood that a the mess and I mean the specific planets. We send a message to a contain or host host a malicious civilization and it was quite low. It was actually about the probability. Well there are 2 numbers. Yeah, lately in
the media they have been talking about for what we've regard my paper about 4 civilizations. So there will be None malicious civilizations in the milky way but a that number comes from a de fact. For sort of from from the fact, no from the hypothesis that all all civilizations would be like us like humanity so which is something that we don't know whether we don't know whether both we don't know whether there are any civilizations at all. We don't know whether they are more advanced less advanced. So that's that's why it's a hypothetical case
if all of them were like us. There would be around 4 based on you know as I said yeah on all the invasions that have happened on earth in the last one hundred years um but the civilization like us would actually not have the technology. To trouble to ah our planet so they would not pose any threat theory because okay they there arerefore Malicias like us if all of them I mean were like us but they would not have the technology technology to come to come to earth so they don't really pose any threat and for the case of type one stars which is actually considered that. Ah, type None civilization would be able would be capable of nearbyest ah trouble. The probability is even lower goes down to 0 point. No no,
well no, no, even lower than that in in that case, there will be less than one malicious civilization and less than one. alberto Type one malicious civilization if all of them were type one but again there could be you know type None type 3 but that would be I mean the highestested you know estimation because you know a type 2 and a type 3 civilization would actually be less likely. To attack the earth so that's why I tried I tried to calculate the numbers for the type None which would be the the closest to our civilization in terms of and you know, ah technological advancement and also in the one which is capable of traveling here. Ah, because so otherwise how can you attack both There are possibilities but they again you build also need you would need energy to a launch an attack from another you know from None solar system to another one. You would actually need a huge amount of energy
and technology to launch. For example, a laser a pack. So but um, so that's why yeah I came up with less than one a type one civilization malics just take None civilization and in our galaxy. So yeah, the numbers are quite quite as small and actually I compared the probabilities with the probability of of the impact of an asteroid. Just to make the public
a and the general public to see well to try to compare the and those probabilities no and actually the probability well but the numbers I came up with and the probability of of an of an extratrastal invasion is actually smaller than the probability of the earth being hit by yeah, you know? ah. A huge story that could actually end up in with a large number of the population on earth. John Michael Godier So it's worth noting here before we go that if there were a malicious type 3 civilization in the milky way we wouldn't be here we would we would we would probably have never evolved they would have taken this world and and turned it into ah you know a borg home world or something like that.
alberto And. John Michael Godier And that the likelihoods again are just we see no evidence and anybody's ever been here. You know so it just seems it just seems low because the distances are too great now. Everybody should check out Alberto's Youtube channel the exoplanets channel. And Alberto. There'll also be links to the None papers in the description below and thanks again for joining us today Alberto and I hope you'll come and check in and with us again next time you release the next paper.
alberto Thank you, Thank you? Thank you very much for the invitation. It was a pleasure.
2022-06-01