friends, welcome to the ninja capital channel, let's look at the current situation what news, what events and what kind of movement are expected in the market today for the dollar of oil, gold for the ruble and other assets, let's start with the calendar, the data on german gdp came out, they are positive better than the forecast, but there is one nuance these the data on the quarterly catch which we considered yesterday it comes out for a month, so the data is of course good that for you on the tower they are positive, they are better than the previous ones and the forecast, however, with some varnish they show the picture that is happening in this regard, of course, that they are positive, perhaps this will help additional for the euro it will be for financial markets, but on the other hand, you need to understand that the data that came out yesterday to dad and in May is not more operational and they reflect the picture to a greater extent than today's GDP, so on 15-30 schnabel no one from jcb will perform well, and 5 hours of sale new housing, I think so only if the sale of new housing you are not very negative, we will see how faria is gradually returning to the market but it is necessary to reverse and everything will start to fall data nevertheless very significant they reflect in which real direction the American economy is now moving so friends let's go over the news the Chinese central bank is actively stimulating lending for in order to stabilize the financial money credit market, and in order to resume economic growth, but as if not so long ago there was news that they were reducing the reserve requirements of banks, but look here, in fact, the question is very difficult, very difficult if all measures were taken were solved in this way by weakening control by weakening reserves, then, accordingly, then it was possible to simply remove the central bank altogether and an endless and unrestrained world economic growth would begin, but the problem is that, in particular, the Chinese economy, it initially developed now, is developing according to the so-called extensive scenario that is when they focus on quantitative indicators, not on qualitative ones, as in the west, it is quantitative this feature of any planned economy that it is tied to the stick system, the so-called that is, you need to show the shelves and then everything will be fine than this approach has its advantages and disadvantages pluses it when you need quick and quick recovery and build-up of the so-called rough muscle mass, that is, it was an agrarian country, not something that is not rich, let's not directly look for it, it must be quickly put on its feet, respectively, in such situations, the so-called extensive methods are very often used in world practice, respectively that is, when you develop personal indicators, build factories, plants, start pumping everything up, and so on, there is such a risk that there is a very simple risk that what you create according to this scenario is not what is called from the ground, that is, you have created some structures that artificial and they need to stand nnom of regulations there this wagon there take this factory unload the products to another factory and so on, that is, it does not work organically, not in a living way and, in fact, all extensive systems are not viable, that is, they require constantly that they be controlled by indicating what to take where what to do and then this is the problem of the planned economy and regulation that it does not adjust itself, it requires constant manual control for manual control, it very often very, very often always but does not meet real needs, that is, it is necessary to send the car there was sent to that factory to another or the wrong kind of clay or the wrong kind of linen was sent there, so , accordingly, such an extensive development, it leads to snacks, the main thing is to restore and switch to intensive farms, that is, when there is not a planned but a market economy, I understand that after the nineties many people in russia have a market economy the economy causes somewhat such specific a reaction in fact that what was then from a non-market economy, these were some processes that, for the sake of abrasiveness, were called liberal by all sorts and the market economy, in fact, as such in full and in the full sense did not exist, and so what concerns the Chinese economy developed according to an extensive scenario, that is, accordingly, there are a lot of distortions, respectively, the Chinese central bank, the Chinese authorities for a long time created such a certain tension and hunger in lending, but this was not due to the fact that there is the Communist Party of China, as if we did not want to give money to anyone no it was due to the fact that this economy, which is built by the industry, the economy, it accordingly has extensive buildings and an excess of money, it will overwhelm it, it will cause inflation, possibly hyperinflation and lead to the fact that it will begin to be in a balanced state, so it is now clear that China is cooling for China, it is critical to maintain 6 percent annual growth cc n because if he goes beyond this mark, then all possible negative processes begin there that will not only slow down economic growth and the development of China in general, but they can cause processes that will lead to a violation of economic cycles, since he is all sharpened to ensure that something is constantly there it grew, respectively, they are now trying to take extreme measures to weaken the requirements for lending more to provide loans; loans are made which are then transformed into loans for Chinese enterprises, but here you need to clearly understand that the problem that lies at the heart of China is not directly related to financing, but there is a certain shortage of funding lending, but this is secondary, it is the very structure itself that is not stable, and this is what they will now begin to flood with money and loans, a very big question is how much such an action such a movement will be capable of, because it is possible in the medium term, universities have broken even more strongly This is how friends gave the nsirovka in the Chinese economy, as for the news, the British Prime Minister wants the Americans to stay in Afghanistan, but in fact, most likely this is just a political statement and it is unlikely that the Americans will stay there if they have already withdrawn everything from there, then I believe that the likelihood of their return comeback, it is very small, if not to say that 0 is so friends, but also with regard to the current situation in the United States of the financial usa, a problem arose in the financial market there, literally everything is drowning in money, which is fraught with, but this is fraught, in addition to the fact that inflation may develop unpredictable disruption of the financing process because that well, it is problematic for someone to provide money to the financial world at interest, just the topic lives on that the funds of bank companies must be placed and income from this is one thing when it comes to a person who places his pension savings or investments in stocks, or speculators are different business when it comes it is about trillions of dollars that you cannot drive and they need to be placed somewhere so that they bring some small income slightly different from zero if this is not observed then very difficult times are coming for the financial system because these flows themselves are disrupted but also the current situation She points out that even if the FRS begins to reduce the purchase of assets in relation to raising rates, well, in fact, according to rip, they have already begun to raise rates, that is, in view of those rates that are associated with direct financing, which are de facto now in America boolean, or there are little different from zero, then even a tightening of financial policy will not lead to the fact that this money supply will dissolve, that is, it will walk around and cause all sorts of unpredictable phenomena in the American financial system, well, here you see the American financial system, it is actually quite flexible and it can be large The volume of liquidity to absorb the Chinese financial system is not so and so e If the Chinese government, the Chinese financial authorities are now following the path of increasing this and not offering money, then the big question is where this money will actually go, will it not go directly to the growth of the cost of goods, services and raw materials, so well, returning to America, what is this article about and a statement about what is happening there, the fact is that even those measures that the effect can begin to take in terms of reducing or increasing liquidity of interest rates, they may not lead to the effect of curbing inflationary processes, because it is one thing to cut a trickle and another thing to create with water which life has flowed into the coinage what to do with it, in order to utilize it, it is necessary either to disperse the stock market, which was where to park this money, or to open some new markets, but with the opening of new market markets, just now all these perturbations will be green technologies, the process is not soon therefore, here either a very severe reduction will be required and a sudden increase in st Avok I think this will not go either for 1 year of space stock markets zero we will see galloping inflation, that is, at the level of already 2-digit and already official, but for all such a difficult fork it is likely that the American monetary authorities will take the path of least resistance, that is turn the market into a final huge bubble and therefore, from my point of view, if the end of September and the beginning of October of this year are passed without a collapse , then, despite 7, an enchanting Christmas rally may arise with horror, so friends, let's move on to the Chinese sl300 chart, well, as you see on the daily chart, he draws such a magical reversal krakazyabra in which the target of movement is in the area of 5300 the statement of the Chinese authorities that they will flood the economy with credit money to provide all kinds of financing and relaxation, but they had an effect, but as an urgent, yes, and the site is not urgent and in the long term it will most likely lead to negative consequences but still n pay attention to this one and the skip that is now being formed, it is going rather weakly, that's why all the same, 5300 here is too gold price here, God forbid, that here somewhere at 5100 it came so friends, but some kind of horror is going on with baltic dry every day it grows by one or two percent, but this, as it were, can lead to the fact that, taking into account violations in logistics, the cost of delivery can also be a very heavy burden on the world economy, so friends further snp 500 by sergey on futures snt well new highs are drawn daily timeframe well, what can I say here if today there are not very pessimistic sales data, there is no longer here on hyatt, we hang out so much and, as you can see, all these exhibitions that arose, they did not lead to the fact that the market started significantly for the team, that is, it goes practically, but with small periodic pullbacks, here you can even calculate with what range June 18 July 19 month July 19 18 watch straight here every month 18 19 hours the portal is weakly cast and the portal is redeemed, but this is just a regularity, respectively, if this week jackson hole does not give anything particularly strongly negative, that is, if there is a good promise that does not cause much fear, then we most likely follow the same scenario a month before the twenties there the numbers of September and we will go on the growth, but today, apparently, there will be movement in the sideways at the high ah, so friends, then I take brent oil for 4 hours, wick, let us still put the sentries like that, friends, but the oil is moving for today, the target is 69 and 7 here here if it comes about a trading person, then, accordingly, the next target will already be at 75 at the current moment, this rebound will be broken if a corrective pullback occurs and the level 68 breaks through sixty-seven and nine, it seems to me now such a scenario is less likely more likely to move upward attempt here to gain a foothold or consolidation here in this range so friends then put gold on the hourly timeframe but yesterday the gold went wonderfully it happened all the expectations the target is 1800 6807 worked out accordingly here today if there is a breakout of 1807 then our next target is the minimum movement of 1814 but in general, as if for this week, taking into account such a drive and a change in the position of the photo session, it is likely that this week we we will see testing 1854 so friends then I put silver for 4 hours wick despite the fact that there was a trial and there were failures in silver here a reversal occurred and, accordingly, at the moment there is a movement in silver, but locally now the goal will be twenty-four point 39 here, respectively this movement but today or this week there will be a criterion that it will not go like a ring and rollbacks breakdown 2336 2336 if we break through, then, accordingly , all this growth is withering for you and silver leaves to test 22 and 9 at the current moment all factors indicate that it is more likely movement up here, we again see the honeycomb, they are so direct, but the sweat does not always work Much that for silver, for example, the cells were negative, however, at least at the beginning of the week, silver shows growth, so friends gave the ruble the dollar and years of hilarity, but look here the situation is as follows, there is now a new level which is 73 and 873 9 range is the daily timeframe, respectively, if here today if it breaks through, then it is very likely that an impulse will go to the strengthening of the ruble, whose target of movement is 7360 773 5 here today Wednesday today placement about the phase I ask the petition running ahead all of them Tuesday 24 August tomorrow placement in the phase plus tomorrow large tax payments on, respectively, today if no color but That will not be the ruble either in the check range, here the pair is trading or it will be strengthened here in the area of 73 and 6, but it must be clearly understood that tomorrow evening everything can go differently as long as there is most likely movement in the sideways in terms of the daily timeframe, or some then the strengthening at 70 36, let's see the hourly timeframe for a clearer picture m so well, the hourly timeframe indicates that now it is very likely that there will be a movement in the consulting range to the upper border of 74 12, this is where the next moment takes place if this movement now gains strength and in case of a breakdown of 74 2, we can get this value short we will go to 74 4 I would not bet on this more likely either a movement in this range or an attempt to test 73 9 and leave here here to this value so friends gave it a ruble girl here the ruble strengthening cycle has gone and, accordingly, today we are let's praise the cycle of strengthening the ruble for today will continue if there is a breakdown of eighty-six and eight of this value, respectively, in this situation, from their movement there will be 8 6 7 here if a breakout occurs here , then after this traversal of the cycle of strengthening the ruble, the local ends and, accordingly, there will be a movement here the cross is not the border at 87 15 I draw your attention to the fact that tomorrow evening there may be a significant ro currencies against the ruble let's see how the placement will go about the phase, how will the dynamics in the market be in general, maybe this factor will not work associated with the end of tax payments and the size of the new phase, but practice shows that more often it works and the ruble is weakening and so friends most likely the euro is the ruble now from here there will be a rebound and movement in euros and rubles at 87 and one 8707 here, respectively, a breakdown of 86 85 will lead to a movement at 8 6 and 7, it is more likely that either consolidation or an attempt at a small rebound, so friends gave futures on the RTS index, let's put 4 hours here here look at us the key level 165 500 if it breaks through the volume and or begins to trade above it, then today or tomorrow from here it is very likely there will be a cycle of movement to 167 567 700 if now we are not breaking through here, if not if after two or three hours below the level there will be a breakdown and consolidation, then a rebound will arise from here and, accordingly, the purpose of the movement of this rebound is a return here to this range at 160 3500 to this value but for now there is enough movement here, now let's see the first two hours of trading after 10, it is quite possible that it will wake up and quickly drive it down, maybe even here, while there is no energy and everything points to the wallpaper, the movement is in this consulting range so friends, let's see the stocks Norilsk Nickel but here we have reversal information, but one occurred in the middle of the movement path, that is, it broke through a strong level and did not fall such constructions, they are usually not stable, they do not give sustainable growth, but nevertheless there are certain signs if it is fixed above 24 тысячи двадцать четыре тысячи сто вот в этом диапазоне и выше то весьма вероятно мы увидим на этой неделе в начале следующей попытку ухода на 25200 сюда к этому значение если в ближайшие дни не будет взят вот этот диапазон то он весьма вероятно продолжит свое сползание потому что вот надо ему на 22 а лучше даже на 21 150 сходить до при общем позитиве на рынке такое движени е она маловероятно и поэтому здесь его все-таки я думаю скорее всего подтянут наверх так друзья дали сбербанк девочка но смотрите на самом деле для него сейчас алогично с моей точки зрения находиться в боковике до его могут на 500 потом подтянуть уже в ближайшее время там в течение нескольких месяцев если обвала мировой фонды не будет то его подтянут на 500 но бумагу очень тяжелая идей нереализованных массой поэтому его логичного сейчас боковике здесь погонять так друзья дали русгидро но парус guitar четкий сигнал движение на 88 4,5 копейки после пробоя уход на 87 88 года сегодня может она немножко консолидироваться в диапазоне 82 1283 36 поторговаться но как только здесь будет импульсы возникает пробой 83 25 она прям сразу полетит сначала сюда потом после пробоя закрытие гэпа но по 4 часа вику тут всё указывает на то что сегодня скорее всего будет день консолидации набора 7 но уже на этой неделе высока вероятность того что будет движение на осень 445 вот сюда к этому значению так друз ья далее газпром давайте газу взгляни-ка так ну газ у нас все хорошо день ото дня он отбивается и растет все выше и выше так но поэтому по газпрому сегодня есть все основания для того чтобы по штурмовать 300 уровень вот 300 уровень как только будет пробит то соответственно здесь у него может возникнуть значительный импульс дежи не наверх пока я думаю вот сейчас на сегодня движение в диапазоне 295 300 и будет он тестировать наверно сегодня уже 300 но с другой стороны вот здесь все-таки коррекционный откат в район 295 и 5 я думаю он достаточно вероятен поэтому здесь наверное вот так вот движение наверх и потом откат опять же здесь я думаю ниже 290 отката не будет но если 290 будет пробит то он уходит уже искать точку опоры в район 279 такой сценарий мне видится маловероятным здесь либо консолидации вот в этом диапазоне либо тестирование на прочность уровней 300 так далее втб с втб картина очень хитрый ползает он в районе уровня 5,1 копейки но на сегодня мое видение следующая если не буде т за дерга вниз с пробоем 5 копеек 4 целых девяносто пять копеек это отсюда он либо сразу либо постепенно начнет движение у которого цель 5,3 копейки так друзья далее вопрос был по индексу смотрите у яндекса вот есть уровень 5080 соответственно если этот уровень в диапазон 3050 5080 не пробивается то у него начат вот здесь вот цикл движения который должен его привести на 5370 лучше доводка это назначили так друзья далее head hunter 4 часовой график ну смотрите бумагу очень интересно не очень ликвидный но очень интересной вот соответственно здесь с моей точки зрения надо дождаться когда вот вам сюда вернется в диапазон 3600 3500 и вот в этом диапазоне он очень хорош для покупок с целью ожидания дальнейшего движения на ты пищи 853 1900 на бумагу по 35 процентов день ходит что еще нужно так друзья дали татнефть тоже 4 часа вик ну смотрите здесь все как бы пошел восходящий тренд как только возникает пробитие 505 здесь сакральный уровень у нее сразу следующая цель движения будет сначала 520 потом 546 вот сюда вот критерий того что сейчас это движение не состоится коррекционный откат и пробиться 489 так друзья на общем то все основные идеи основные новости основные активы спасибо за внимание успешных торгов
2021-08-24