Upcoming Energy Technologies

as all world's energy demands soar the future depends on revolutionary ideas today we are exploring the gamechanging technologies that could power tomorrow and redefine what's possible Welcome to our first episode of the year and of the 11th season of Science and futurism with Isaac author bringing you a weekly glimpse of our crazy and awesome future since 2014 if you're new here I am your forementioned host Isaac Arthur I am a physicist by training and a third generation sci-fi geek and something we do a lot here is try to use science fiction Concepts and ideas to explain real world ideas and Technologies from the near future to time so distant even the Stars themselves are but a memory our Focus for today is upcoming Energy Technologies and that will be everything from tomorrow's Tech to those that might generate power at the end of the universe course you can see a list of those subtopics up on the screen and feel free to jump directly to the topics of interest to you but we cover a lot of topics from Aliens and mega structures to artificial intelligence and cybernetics and the civilizations that might arise around them or through them space is one of our biggest focuses and I have the honor of being the recipient of both the National Space society's Excellence award and Pioneer award an honor I share with Elon Musk Kip Thorn John Glenn Ray Bradberry Jared isaacman and many more folks who deserve the honor a lot more than I I am also the president of the NSS since 2022 which still humbles and shocks me at times I am not a big one for autobiography but it's important to mention your background occasionally when you're getting ready to tell people tons of information with an implied trust me I know what I'm talking about and I'm also grateful that many of our audience members have volunteered over the years to help edit and brainstorm scripts to help keep us accurate and Cutting Edge also my somewhat atypical accent and speech impediment is giving you some problems every episode of this show has transcripts on it in the subtitles what else is there I am 44 years old at the time of this writing a US Army veteran I am married to my wonderful wife Sarah and reside on our farm in Northeast Ohio with our three children Christopher Isabella and geometry ages 9 8 and 6 whom we also homeschool I credit coffee for my ability to juggle all that it's the fuel that keeps me going of course the fuel that keeps our civilization going in addition to caffeine anyway is mostly dead dinosaurs and has been for a century and Counting actually we think it's mostly dead algae and Plankton but either way we'd like to move Beyond those for many reasons and we are in the process of developing and deploying many awesome Technologies to help with that which we'll be looking at today and there are a lot of them since it is a big topic and for the sake of brevity we will be keeping discussion of each section short this is especially true of topics where we have a focused episode and in the hundreds of episodes of sfia we have done quite a few that deep dive this or that type of energy from the modern and mundane to the distant and theoretical When We Touch on one of those we will reference the appropriate episode for those wanting a deeper dive but we would be remiss if we didn't bring them up we will be covering briefly some of those very Advanced Energy ideas towards the end of the episode and those are Fusion antimatter matter to energy conversion perpetual motion machines vacuum energy black hole energy Dark Energy Zero Point Energy and tapping multiv forces but before we get to those more speculative areas we'll be covering more grounded stuff like energy from the ground itself and looking at Advanced Solar Technologies Next Generation nuclear hydrogen fuel and storage energy storage Innovations bio energy and synthetic fuels smart grids and Energy Efficiency geothermal and other alternative sources that's a lot to cover so a drink or a snack might be a good idea Advanced solo Technologies any discussion of emerging Energy Technologies needs to begin with solar as it's probably the most promising the these days and while I am a big fan of space based solar power that is something we've discussed in its own episode and will be deep diving more in the future so instead I like to focus on PA of Sky solo Sals transparent and flexible solo panels and CSP concentrated solar power traditional silicon based solar panels have already made significant inroads into the energy Market but several emerging Technologies could revolutionize how we harness sunlight here's a closer look at some of the more promising developments P of Sky solar sales are one of the most exciting advancements in solar technology the technology has been developing for some time and making improvements the problems they've had with service lifetime scaling up for manufacturing so hopefully should be moving into the regular Market this decade this will offer higher efficiency and lower manufacturing costs compared to traditional silicon cells hopefully the key component in these cells is a compound with a crystal structure similar to that of mineral aair of guide hence the name these materials are highly effective at absorbing light which allows for thinner and lighter solar cells to be manufactured at a fraction of the cost peros Sky cells have already achieved efficiencies of over 25% in laboratory settings and 29.8% for Tandem Paras Sky silicon devices additionally Paras Skyes can be tuned to absorb different wavelengths of Lights making them ideal for those tandem solar cells these are multi-layout structures that capture more of the solar spectrum and thus improve efficiency so one layer might be able to absorb red light and the layer below blue or green again the main challenges are improving their long-term durability and stability as they tend to degrade when exposed to moisture and heat however researchers are making significant progress in enhancing the lifespan of these cells bringing us closer to commercial viability Lifetime and durability are weaknesses of solo that have been improving rapidly and one of our other issues with gain solar into the wider Market is the desire for transparent and flexible solar panels unlike traditional panels these can be integrated into various surfaces including Windows green houses vehicle roofs and even clothing transparent solar panels are obviously not 100% transparent to light since light is what runs solar but this can either be done by absorbing wavelengths we can't see by like ultraviolet and infrared or by reducing light coming through like tinted windows do this may make them ideal for use in urban environments where space for conventional panels is limited and as an example a transparent window in an urban apartment in the summer could remove some of the light warming that room while generating power to run air conditioning flexible solar panels meanwhile open up possibilities for portable and wearable applications they are typically made using thin film technologies that can be Ved on to flexible substrates this could enable solar power on curved or irregular surfaces like the roof of a convertible car or someone's coat letting them recharge their portable devices we will discuss batteries later but if you imagine someone's clothing having a few small battery packs in it and wireless chargers in a pocket or two then a lot more portable devices become practical and more lightweight you would also open the door to options like a circulating system inside them quietly pumping a fluid around to help warm or cool someone speaking of heating fluids concentrated solar power CSP is a technology that uses mirrors or lenses to focus sunlight onto a smaller area typically to heat a fluid that drives a turbine to generate electricity unlike photovoltaic solar panels which convert sunlight directly into electricity CSP systems rely on heat energy making them more akin to traditional power plants CSP has the advantage of being able to store thermal energy which allows for electricity generation even when the sun isn't shining recent advancements in CSP include the use of mul and salt as a heat transfer and storage medium which can retain heat at high temperatures for extended periods this enables CSP to produce electricity on demand addressing one of the primary challenges of solar power intermittency CSP systems are particularly suited for Regions with high direct sunlight such as deserts where they can provide consist consistent and reliable power this also makes it potentially useful in cooler tundra locations while CSP currently represents a small fraction of global solar capacity it holds significant potential for large scale grid connected solar power Next Generation nuclear we can't discuss emerging technology without looking at fision or Fusion but we did an episode looking at developments in Fusion technology just a couple months back so we will bypass that today beond now noting that while Fusion is still ways off commercially huge amounts of progress have been made on the basic technology in the last decade and there's a lot of room for optimism on Fusion the two big ones folks discuss for nuclear fision on the other hand are thorium reactors and smrs small modular reactors and those also both have their own dedicated episodes and recently enough that there's no reason to update them yet thorium fision is very much still an emerging technology while smrs are actually getting built and it's hard to say how prolific construction of them will be in 10 years nuclear has improved vastly in recent decades and public fear of nuclear seems diminished but at the same time the improvements to solar during that same time span have been greater for my part I still think a mixed solar and vision economy would be our most optimal economic build with current technology for producing cheap and abundant energy without the scarcity or environmental concerns involved in fossil fuels but fion plants require large build times and Investments this is the main advantage of smrs they can be built in a TENS of megawatts range and built off site and brought in for quick assembly so may represent the future of nuclear power there's also still the reality that no matter how good solar gets it doesn't work if it's dark or cloudy thus you need to find a power supply that works at night or in a storm like nuclear or you need to store energy in an efficient and cheap fashion hydrogen fuel and storage batteries are both expensive and fairly inefficient even lithium batteries which are in order of magnitude better than prior batteries they lose 10 to 20% of the power pumped into them while charging as heat and while efficient in discharge still lose another 2 to 5% running your device you can also lose another 5 to 10% on converting the battery's DC current back to AC current so the moment you have to power from something like wind or solar rather than send it directly to people's homes or appliances you're losing somewhere between an eighth to a third of your energy unlike many other batteries lithium leaks power slowly 1 to 2% of their charge a month versus 3 to 5% for lead acid batteries so they are fine for storing power overnight or even for cloudy weeks more is always better but you have to build and maintain that supply and keep them charged the whole time or else they aren't ready even bad weather comes chemical fuels on the other hand like gasoline are a lot more shelf stable and since they already exist we don't have to pay a fee to make them just pump them and refine them which admittedly is also a non-trivial cost but we can instead take water which covers this planet and through electrolysis crack it free into hydrogen and oxygen this is amazing Fuel and our preferred one for Rockets except that hydrogen is very tiny and leaks easily and corrodes tanks graphing that Miracle substance for building space elevators and strengthening concrete also makes a good liner for fuel tanks full of hydrogen so hydrogen fuel storage is looking more attractive even though you typically only get about 60 to 80% of the energy you put into electrolysis in water out in terms of combustible hydrogen fuel then when burning fuel you only get 20 to 30% out of your typical combustion engine while hydrogen fuel cells do more like 40 to 60% but large tanks you can line and then basically fill with water you split into hydrogen using solar or nuclear or whatever and which you can leave sitting for long periods may still be cheaper than batteries it's also useful in Aerospace outside of rocketry because hydrogen is incredibly energy dense a rocket has to carry its own oxygen with it and 89% of the mass of that hydrogen and oxygen is that oxygen just 11% is hydrogen batteries are even heavier in terms of energy density a megga a kilogram or less compared to dozens of megga a kilogram for most chemical fuels we use we don't care about weight for stationary energy storage sites for our power grid and honestly it's not too big a deal even for automobiles but weight is a big deal in Aerospace and planes and jets don't need to carry their oxygen like a rocket does they can just breathe in the air so all they need to carry is hydrogen which has an energy density of 142 MGA a kilg as a combustible Fuel and 120 m per kg when used as a fuel cell both more than 100 times the density of even the best lithium battery incidentally if you're not clear on what hydrogen fuel cells do compared to hydrogen combustion both operate by combining hydrogen and oxygen into water but the fuel so does it by electrochemical reaction rather than by combustion within the fuel cell hydrogen atoms all split into protons and electrons the Rons flow through an external circuit to generate electrical power while the protons move through an electrolyte to rec combine with oxygen there may be one type of energy and energy storage that ends up totally dominating but the moment things seem to be developing toward a fairly wide mixture of options for both that would vary by location both are excellent fuel for vehicles easily beating out even gasoline for driving an engine assume you got an abundant and cheap hydrogen production and storage process achieve both and you have a renewable carbon free energy Supply that would increase vehicle mileage over what an equal weight of gas or batteries permit and efficiency always goes up if your fuel weighs less for the same energy since you have to push that fuel around till you use it burning up more fuel whether by fuel cell or combustion you could use nuclear and solar during sunny days to produce hydrogen for storage with your Surplus you can throttle a nuclear reactor though depending on design is fairly slow a few perent a minute being on the fast end and we usually run them at continuous levels as our base load power providers in a mixed solar and nuclear economy you might throttle your nuclear during sunny weeks or aim for doing your maintenance in those periods regardless when night or Storms Come your nuclear is still going at full capacity and generally power demand goes down people use l power at night and even in storms the demand for cooling drops you you cover your Gap with that hydrogen since it is relatively light compared to batteries you can have pipelines ships rail or tankle trucks moving hydrogen from spots with a surplus to those running a deficit and these might be temporary surpluses or deficits based on weather season or equipment failure or you might have regions that were advantaged on Solo or nuclear power production and regularly over produced to ship to places that ran temporary or even regular deficits this again is also likely running your vehicles at this point too fundamentally this technology is dependent on how good we can get at cheaply storing hydrogen gas and again graphing looks very promising here but also looks promising for Battery Technology for enhancing energy density battery Lifetime and charging and discharging rates needless to say improvements in recycling batteries or manufacturing them cheaper will help with battery storage cost but a graphy enhanced battery contrasted to a graphine line fuel tank is an example of how ironically improvements in one technology can make it profitable only to be undone because of an improvement in a rival technology that made it even better this happens a lot in Energy Technologies where they've all been making massive improvements and often revolutionary changes that people spent Decades of Brilliance and hard work on but come to not because other people's brilliant work improves some other Tech too all I can say on that is issue is if you're going to have a problem being blessed by too much clever innovation in too many areas is the kind of problem we want to have energy storage Innovations there are a lot of other Technologies besides hydrogen or lithium batteries we can use for storing energy molten salts solid state batteries flow batteries compressed air and liquid air are some of the most promising options molten salt storage molon salt energy storage is often used in conjunction with concentrated solar power plants where sunlight Heats salt to high temperatures allowing it to store thermal energy this stored heat can then be used to generate electricity even when the sun is not shining SS are cost effective and can retain heat efficiently over long periods making them well suited for large scale energy storage particularly for renewable energy sources that need to bridge gaps in power production the name tends to imply something volcanic but while they can be big you could have units no larger than a water heater and no more dangerous solid state batteries solid state batteries replace the liquid or gel electrolyte found in traditional batteries with a solid electrolyte which can improve safety and energy density these batteries are less prone to leakage fire and thermal runaway making them particularly appealing for electric vehicles solid state batteries can potentially offer faster charging times and longer lifespans than lithium ion batteries though they are still in the developmental phase and face challenges in terms of cost and scalability flow batteries flow batteries store energy in liquid electrolyte Solutions contained in external tanks allowing them to provide scalable energy storage the energy capacity of a flow battery is determined by the size of the tanks with which makes them ideal for large scale storage applications they are particularly well suited for grid storage because they can discharge for extended periods and have long cycle lives but their relatively low energy density means they are less suited for portable applications Compressed Air energy storage case case systems store energy by using electricity to compress air which is then stored in underground Caverns or large storage tanks when energy is needed the compressed air is released heated and used to drive a turbine to generate electricity the basic technology is similar to the air compressors many of us used for running tools case is advantageous for grid scale storage due to its potential for large storage capacity and relatively low cost though it requires specific geological conditions for underground storage and has relatively low round trip efficiency liquid a energy storage lace liquid a energy storage works by cooling air until it becomes a liquid which can then be stored in insulated tanks such as the liquid nitrogen tanks you may have used in a chemistry or physics class when energy is needed the liquid air is allowed to warm up and expand driving a turbine to generate electricity lace systems have a long storage duration and can be built at any location offering a promising option for large scale long duration energy storage however the offici efficiency is somewhat lower than other storage types and they require significant cooling infrastructure each of these Technologies offers unique benefits and tradeoffs making them suitable for different applications and storage needs as well as certain locations or industrial sectors particularly in the integration of renewable energy into the grid and improving energy [Music] resilience speaking of the importance of air in my next video of the fory Paradox series we dive in the role atmospheres play in shaping the emergence and survival of intelligent life and how they may answer why the stars remain silent could the key to solving the firmy Paradox be hiding in plain sight drifting in the air of distant WS while you at it I want to suggest checking out faithless a sojon story a featurelength Audio Drama follow castian vandro a former Inquisitor TN fugitive heretic as he uncovers the ancient truths in the sojourn Universe featuring an awesome cast of voice actors including Emma Gregory who some of you may remember as Inquisitor Amberly Veil from the excellent kyus Kane audio dramas sojourn faithless is an unprecedented audio cinematic experience all previous series and videos are exclusive to nebula for less than $3 a month all exclusive content that is now streaming on nebula where all sfia episodes air early and AD free alongside tons of exclusive content from myself and other creators sign up at go.net ne. tv/ ISAC arthor using my code Isaac arthor to get 40% off an annual membership that's less than $3 a month and you'll be directly supporting this show nebula also offers lifetime memberships and gift cards so you can share exclusive content like faithless and sfa's monthly specials with friends and family and now back to the future bio energy and synthetic fuels another way to store energy is to take sunlight and put it in a plant then turn that plant into Fuel and biofuels remain a good operation for generating portable fuel supplies as a rival to gasoline gains in this technology are mostly about finding or creating better biofuel crops better growing techniques or improving manufacturing costs fundamentally biofuels are not very efficient compared to solar panels or energy dense compared to hydrogen or fossil fuels and so I tend to think they can only work where we are taking advantage of growing or harvesting them where we wouldn't put solar panels or Farms we won't spend too much time on this topic but alj based biofuels remains a promising one in my opinion since we could F on the near dead stretches of deep ocean out from the coast we discussed Oceanic Farms more in our recent ocean habitats episode so see that episode for why and how we could do that so two waste-based energies like harvesting a landfill for power is an example of how you can take the expensive process of of getting rid of waste and instead produce energy off it SM grids and Energy Efficiency speaking of waste a lot of gains can be made by just limiting waste and improving efficiency and that's where smart grid and artificial intelligence can help us a lot smart grids and Energy Efficiency Technologies help optimize electricity generation distribution and consumption reducing waste and improving reliability by using sensors Advanced met Ing and realtime data analytics smart grids can monitor and adjust energy flows to better match demand artificial intelligence AI further enhances this by predicting demand patterns identifying inefficiencies and integrating renewable sources additionally AI support demands response programs where users reduce consumption during peak times helping to lower the need for extra power together smart grid and AI make energ is more adaptive sustainable and cost effective geothermal and alternative sources we discussed primary Technologies like solar and nuclear and various storage and usage improvements but there are many other possible power supplies we'll get to the really Hightech and even scientifically dubious ones in a moment but first let's talk briefly about geothermal title and wind power all of which we already have now Geo thoral can include passive geothermal and help control Heating and Cooling cars and this technology relies mostly on improvements to digging drilling or Excavating in tandem with Superior piping systems in terms of cost and lifetime all of these have seen and will continue to see big improvements so incorporating passive geothermal into homes in the future may grow much cheaper and easier but we also have advanced geothermal systems that represent a significant advancement in geothermal energy en access to heat stored deep Neath your surface in areas Beyond traditional geothermal hotspots unlike conventional Geo thoral which relies on naturally occurring hot water or steam EGS can generate electricity by injecting water into hot dry rock formations and then extracting the heated water this process effectively expands geothermal Energy's reach to a broader range of locations allowing for more widespread adoption recent advancements in drilling and fra technologies have improved the efficiency and feasibility of EGS making a promising option for scalable Basel load renewable energy that's Earth but how about water ocean-based tidle and wave energy harnesses the predictable movements of tides and the kinetic power of waves to generate electricity offering a consistent and renewable energy source recent developments in underwater turbines and wave energy converters have improved the efficiency and reliability of capturing this energy titled and wave energy systems can be particularly valuable for coastal regions as they provide a steady supply of power and are less variable than solar and wind while still in the early stages of commercialization advancements in these Technologies are making ocean energy a more viable contributor to the Renewable Energy Mix we also have air powerered Kites and high altitude wind energy systems that use tethered kites or airborne wind turbines to access stronger and more consistent winds found at higher altitudes these systems can generate more power than traditional groundbased wind turbines by reaching altitudes where winds are both faster and more constant Airborne turbines or kites equipped with small generators convert wind energy into electricity and transmit it down through their tethers needless to say the same technologies that might make space elevators possible for transport of cargo and Electric electricity would make these work much better you might also be able to then place them far above where birds fly this approach also requires less material and land than conventional wind farms which makes it a cost effective and versatile solution for expanding wind energy in areas where traditional wind turbines might be impractical that's are all major technologies that appear plausibly on the horizon for the next decade or maybe a generation or two for things like Fusion let's let's finish today by briefly exploring some Far further Horizon Technologies though of course we might only be one clever Einstein or Da Vinci away from any of these being constructed tomorrow black hole energy black hole Energy Technologies were topics of two episodes last year the first looking at using larger black holes where energy is harvested by dropping matter into them and generating up to 20 to 40% matter to energy conversion more than in order of Manu better than Fusion and two ERS better than fision and nearly a billion times better than chemical fuels and this is a fairly low Tech if Brute Force approach to power generation that mostly suffers from no black holes being near us no Advanced Tech is needed except if you're trying to make those black holes yourself the second was on the koug blitz black hole which is more like a battery and where you create very small black holes atom sized ones and as they Decay gather their hacking radi ation for power see those episodes for more details antimatter antimatter is a simple enough technology when AN anti- particle hits a regular particle they annihilate and typically produce a pair of photons of very high energy gamar rays which then hit other particles and heat them up so they either emit longer wavelengths a photovoltaic panel could absorb or heat water to turn a turbine using it is Child's Play storing and creating it is much harder see our antimatter factories and uses episode for a deep dive on that matter to energy conversion a nice thing about antimatter is that it converts both itself and equal Mass particle into energy so you actually get e = 2 mc^ 2 rather than just e = mc^ 2 but it's rather explosive and of course you don't get that double for free as a rocket propellant since you carry an equal mass of regular matter with you maybe outright using the antimatter storage tanks as that regular matter mass in any event one pound has 41 million billion Jews in it and 1 kgam 90 million billion making them almost a billion times more energy dense than normal chemical fuels it may be possible to convert regular matter into energy without an antimatter collision and that's the case then such a converter will match antimatter but presumably avoid its hazards you feed regular matter into it at a rate of energy you need and only when you need it with the typical us household using about 38 billion Jews of electrical energy a year one pound of matter would last just over a million years and 1 kilogram close to 2 and 1/2 million per household this would seem to make it the ultimate power supply if we could make it work outperforming black holes and matching anti matter but without the difficulties of creating and Stor it sadly unless you count Fe in micro black holes to harvest their hockey radiation we have no clear paths to this technology vacuum energy and Zero Point Energy I should note that the means by which a black hole evaporates and creates power is often better envisioned as that hyp Den object cracking space time and letting vacuum energy leak through which in the process lowers that mass but we believe there's more energy in the true vacuum underneath this universe than all the matter and energy in it and we discussed very ious means of tapping them in our episode vacuum energy and Zero Point Energy along with concerns that such technology might accidentally destroy a given region of the universe but since matter to energy conversion relies on matter in this universe and most of the energy in this universe isn't in regular matter but dark matter and dark energy is not as big a supply as it sounds like and will be dwarfed by the vastly greater energy of the vacuum which we think underlies everything making it a better power supply perpetual motion Machines of course an even better power supply would be one that produced energy endlessly with no fuel and if you can make such a machine generally what we call a perpetual motion machine or device this obviously becomes your very best power source Eternal energy from the wheel that keeps spinning even when moving through the drag of air or the friction of axle or Dynamo now as the great Robert heyland like to say ton staffle there ain't no such thing as a free lunch and as you might have heard the US patent office refuses to patent any design for one without a working model present I wouldn't advise folks to hold their breath on getting free energy out of nowhere nonetheless we should keep in mind that the energy this universe contains had to come from somewhere and occasional handwaves by theorists about everything maybe neeting out suffer from a total lack of evidence supporting that and also implying that a positive sum and a negative SU while adding up to zero is actually nothing this would seem no more true than saying that a business that generated Zer net income in a given year did nothing even though it's been producing and using stuff left and right it's a philosophically and metaphysically dubious claim we discussed more in our episode on the Foy Paradox and the fine-tune universe though admittedly it's got exactly as much evidence for it as any of our other origin ideas which is to say none for now we only know that our universe contains stuff and that if it presumably came from nowhere then maybe that process or more scaled down version could be replicated to produce free energy nor can we simply wave to the law of energy conservation which has been cracked if not broken since Einstein unveiled relativity and which further has to deal with not just the Big Bang but all the dark energy coming from nowhere or leaking in from somewhere Dark Energy Dark Energy seems to produce new bits of space time everywhere and at an accelerating rate we know little of this so it may be that fairly large chunks appear or that tiny little plank length bits do which are smaller to an atom than that atom is to the universe and may be boiling into existence constantly even inside you and I SpaceTime contains energy it's not simply an empty thing we put stuff in any more than a piece of paper r on is we may be able to artificially produce it or harvest existing SpaceTime for power and we discussed that ladder last month in gravitic spaceship proportion and ways we might be able to make Galaxy scale Mega structures for harvesting Dark Energy expansion of the universe in our Dark Energy episode tapping early universes or multiverses it may also be possible to do things like drop a wormhole into a star to suck energy out of it to fuel a power plant somewhere but hes travel through time not just space so you might be able to Loop one back to the even more energy dense early Universe in its first moments and indeed that might not violate causality in some models but even more interestingly not only are hypothetical wormholes able to travel space and time they probably work better traveling to entirely different universes nor are War holes the only potential means of reaching other realities or universes if they exist and can be reached then many might offer unlimited energy and as likely as not be entirely lifeless and while something like that might seem a far distant technology of future Star Trek eras if it is possible it may be something we figured out even this Century but whether or not that happens as we saw today we have a lot of upcoming Energy Technologies that are very promising even if only half of the ones currently on the near Horizon work only half as well as seems expected and as energy is the lifeblood of our civilization a future of energy abundance seems ever closer and so the future looks bright indeed [Music] for [Music]

2025-01-06 17:38

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