The Old Farts Gather - A Retrospective Journey through 2023 and Beyond
Leo Laporte: Hey everybody, a very special Christmas Eve Leo Laporte: twit just around the corner. Leo Laporte: Doc Searles, Jeff Jarvis, steve Gibson, rod Leo Laporte: Pyle and I will talk about the big stories Leo Laporte: of the year gone by and make our Leo Laporte: predictions for 2024. Leo Laporte: It's our Christmas Eve twit.
Leo Laporte: Next, podcasts you love. Rod Pyle: From people you trust. Rod Pyle: This is twit. Leo Laporte: This is twit this weekend tech episode 959 Leo Laporte: for Christmas Eve 2023. Leo Laporte: The old farts gather. Leo Laporte: This weekend.
Leo Laporte: Tech is brought to you by Stampscom. Leo Laporte: Get your business ready for the holiday Leo Laporte: rush. Leo Laporte: Sign up with a promo code TWIT for a Leo Laporte: special offer that includes a four week Leo Laporte: trial, free postage and a free digital Leo Laporte: scale.
Leo Laporte: Just go to Stampscom, click the microphone Leo Laporte: at the top of the page and enter the code Leo Laporte: TWIT. Leo Laporte: Well, a merry, merry Christmas Eve to Leo Laporte: everyone. Leo Laporte: Leo Laporte here, with not quite the last Leo Laporte: twit of the year I guess we'll have a best Leo Laporte: of for New Year's Eve, but the last live Leo Laporte: twit of the year and I, as we did last year, Leo Laporte: we've decided to do once again a reprise of Leo Laporte: the old farts holiday show, because there's Leo Laporte: nothing more festive than a fart. Leo Laporte: Hello, everybody, look at these festive Leo Laporte: people, the Jingle, jingle bells, the old Leo Laporte: folks who have been on twit for ever and Leo Laporte: ever. Leo Laporte: Like Jeff Jarvis over on my right there, Leo Laporte: he's falling asleep. Leo Laporte: Did you get a? Leo Laporte: He was in Vienna yesterday.
Leo Laporte: Did you get a good night's sleep? Jeff Jarvis: I actually did. Jeff Jarvis: I actually did, but it still doesn't. Jeff Jarvis: So I'm I'm tired. Jeff Jarvis: You're on the wall, we're all tired.
Leo Laporte: I think in order to be on this show, you Leo Laporte: had to be over 60,. Leo Laporte: I think was the the rule. Jeff Jarvis: I've seen that in the rear view mirror.
Leo Laporte: Next, to you, doc Searles, looking very Leo Laporte: festive in North Carolina. Leo Laporte: I think. Doc Searls: I'm older than all of you guys. Doc Searls: Oh well, 760 years old Are you really? Doc Searls: Yeah, 76, yeah 76,. Leo Laporte: Oh yeah. Rod Pyle: After 60, it just all runs together.
Rod Pyle: We just went to hell. Doc Searls: You know, I there was one time Scoble on a Doc Searls: different podcast told me that I didn't Doc Searls: understand Facebook cause I was too old Now Doc Searls: and I told him. Doc Searls: I told him dude, I've been young a lot Doc Searls: longer than you. Leo Laporte: Yeah Well, and I have to point out that Leo Laporte: it's only the old's who use Facebook.
Leo Laporte: Really, the truth is. Doc Searls: I know, I know this is like you know, a few Doc Searls: years ago, you say that to young people now. Leo Laporte: You're too young to understand Facebook. Leo Laporte: Yeah, that's probably true.
Leo Laporte: Doc's the host of a Floss Weekly, long time Leo Laporte: editor and chief of the Linux Journal and Leo Laporte: an open source Maven, and it's so great to Leo Laporte: have you on the show for the first time Leo Laporte: Next time. Leo's Laptop Audio: Yeah welcome. Leo Laporte: Steve Gibson was here last year with his Leo Laporte: Grinch hands.
Leo Laporte: He's back. Leo Laporte: Hello, he's a mean one, mr G. Steve Gibson: Hello everybody, great to be joining you Steve Gibson: from the green forest, whoa. Leo Laporte: In Southern California.
Leo Laporte: It's hard to get Christmasy in Southern Leo Laporte: California, Isn't it? Steve Gibson: Yeah, we're not even bothering. Steve Gibson: Yeah, we discussed it. Steve Gibson: It's like it's too much yeah there's no Steve Gibson: snow, it's.
Leo Laporte: The sun is shining there are people in Leo Laporte: bikinis. Steve Gibson: You have drag neighbors in to see the tree. Steve Gibson: It's like yeah. Leo Laporte: No, yeah, well. Leo Laporte: Well, doc has got quite a festive backdrop Leo Laporte: there because he's in Christmas, thanks to Leo Laporte: my sister, my sister this is her house. Leo Laporte: Very nice.
Doc Searls: And she has fiber. Doc Searls: I'm on Wi-Fi, but oh, I like it. Doc Searls: Yeah, you got 400 megabits both ways, Doc Searls: pretty good.
Leo Laporte: Yeah, nice, that must be Also with us. Leo Laporte: The Lakata's a pile. Leo Laporte: I don't. Leo Laporte: I really I can't quite understand what's Leo Laporte: going on. Leo Laporte: Rod Pyle is here, host of this week in Leo Laporte: space, the editor in chief of Ad Astra, the Leo Laporte: space magazine from the National Space Leo Laporte: Society. Leo Laporte: Is this your Hollywood Halloween costume Leo Laporte: left over? Leo Laporte: I'm not sure.
Rod Pyle: You know, no, I, it's just for you, leo, Rod Pyle: and this is how special I feel this is. Rod Pyle: So I'm just a disturbed person. Leo Laporte: I thought maybe you suffered some severe Leo Laporte: burns and we're just embarrassed.
Rod Pyle: No, all my damage is internal up here. Rod Pyle: No worries. Leo Laporte: Well, very nice to see you all. Leo Laporte: Thank you for spending your Christmas Eve Leo Laporte: with us and the Twitch family far and wide, Leo Laporte: and thanks to the Twitch family for being Leo Laporte: here on the night before Christmas. Leo Laporte: It's great to have you.
Leo Laporte: I think you know, normally what we do on Leo Laporte: these shows is kind of look back at the Leo Laporte: year gone by and I thought, well, that's. Leo Laporte: I guess we could, you know, go through Leo Laporte: stories one by one. Leo Laporte: But we've here, we've got a panel of four Leo Laporte: experts in their own right and finding Leo Laporte: those stories requires work and I didn't Leo Laporte: want to. Leo Laporte: I really didn't want to have to go through Leo Laporte: all of them.
Leo Laporte: So you, you've outed me, Jeff, which is, by Leo Laporte: the way, Jeff's chief role on this week in Leo Laporte: Google. Leo Laporte: We've gotten so far afield from this from Leo Laporte: Google on this week in Google that we've Leo Laporte: contemplated calling it this week in Leo Laporte: general. Leo Laporte: But that's kind of. Jeff Jarvis: Or our new and magnificent co-host, paris Jeff Jarvis: Martino, noted that that friends said are Jeff Jarvis: you on a podcast with your dads? Jeff Jarvis: So it's now this week, in this week in Jeff Jarvis: geriatrics Wow. Leo Laporte: Well, we are glad to have the host this Leo Laporte: week in space, this week in open source, Leo Laporte: this week in security and this week in Leo Laporte: general on our shows, actually let me start Leo Laporte: with you, steve, because, boy, you live Leo Laporte: this life Every week. Leo Laporte: You go through all of the security news.
Leo Laporte: Figure out what the hell's going on. Leo Laporte: Tell me about 2023. Leo Laporte: Was there a trend, a particular thing that Leo Laporte: happened this year? Leo Laporte: Last year was the year of ransomware.
Leo Laporte: I guess every year is going to be from now Leo Laporte: on. Steve Gibson: Yeah, and so as trends go, I think that's Steve Gibson: the big one. Steve Gibson: We've talked about it on the podcast before. Steve Gibson: The fact that it's possible for bad guys to Steve Gibson: use extortion against enterprises of all Steve Gibson: sizes and receive payment through Steve Gibson: cryptocurrency is, unfortunately, a game Steve Gibson: changer.
Leo Laporte: Yeah, you know, we thought you and I both Leo Laporte: you did a. Leo Laporte: I don't know how many years ago you did Leo Laporte: your show on Bitcoin and I think we weren't Leo Laporte: alone. Leo Laporte: A lot of people thought this was going to Leo Laporte: be revolutionary and, for people who are Leo Laporte: unbanked in developing nations, it was Leo Laporte: going to change our dependency on national Leo Laporte: currencies, nations currencies and end up Leo Laporte: just really being a facilitator for bad Leo Laporte: guys.
Leo Laporte: A money laundering scheme. Steve Gibson: I guess more than that, I would say it's an Steve Gibson: illuminator of human nature in general, Steve Gibson: because lots of good people have like lost Steve Gibson: lots of money because there's like, oh, I Steve Gibson: don't know what it is. Steve Gibson: Well, okay, stop right there. Steve Gibson: But you know they put their money in it Steve Gibson: anyway. Steve Gibson: But for the longest time you and I were Steve Gibson: talking on the podcast, you know, observing Steve Gibson: viruses and malware and kind of like well, Steve Gibson: why is anyone bothering? Steve Gibson: Why, like viruses were just there, they Steve Gibson: were kind of propagating, but they just Steve Gibson: sort of were like proofs of concept.
Steve Gibson: There was nothing, nothing to gain. Steve Gibson: There was nothing to gain Behind them. Steve Gibson: Yeah, yes, and it changed when it became Steve Gibson: clear that it was possible for extortion to Steve Gibson: receive money, because money drives this Steve Gibson: all. Steve Gibson: And so, essentially, we have several Steve Gibson: decades of computer technology and systems Steve Gibson: where, you know, we thought it would be Steve Gibson: good to have passwords, we thought it would Steve Gibson: be good to have a firewall, but nobody Steve Gibson: really worried about them that much.
Steve Gibson: And you know, if the firewall was leaking a Steve Gibson: little bit, oh well, we'll get around to Steve Gibson: that later. Steve Gibson: I mean, so security was mostly just sort of Steve Gibson: a thing. Steve Gibson: You said, oh yeah, we got that. Steve Gibson: Okay, you know what next? Steve Gibson: The problem now is that we've got hostile Steve Gibson: foreign governments who are protecting Steve Gibson: groups of very capable hackers, who, which Steve Gibson: is to say, you know they're not trying to Steve Gibson: chase them down and put them in prison. Steve Gibson: They're like, oh, you're going to go get Steve Gibson: the US, fine, have a nice day.
Steve Gibson: And we're seeing groups like there's one Steve Gibson: Ryuk that's made, we know it's. Steve Gibson: They've generated $250 million in extortion, Steve Gibson: and we were talking about a different one, Steve Gibson: related to one that got themselves in Steve Gibson: trouble when they went pro-Russia after the Steve Gibson: Ukraine invasion. Steve Gibson: They've renamed themselves and, in less Steve Gibson: than two years, have made 107 million.
Steve Gibson: So and we know this because now we're able Steve Gibson: to track the transactions across various Steve Gibson: cryptocurrencies as they move through Steve Gibson: exchanges so those guys made $107 million. Steve Gibson: Well, you know that'll get your attention. Steve Gibson: And the point is that we have we've always Steve Gibson: had, we've been playing lip service to Steve Gibson: security more than really having security, Steve Gibson: and now these chickens are coming home to Steve Gibson: roost because there's there are, there's Steve Gibson: motivation to breach the security that used Steve Gibson: to be good enough, even though it wasn't Steve Gibson: perfect. Leo Laporte: Oh so because there's, because there's real Leo Laporte: money to maybe but that.
Leo Laporte: But on that point, you know, I've talked to Leo Laporte: some of our. Leo Laporte: You know we have some people who are big Leo Laporte: fans of your shows, like. Leo Laporte: One of them is a Grayson in our discord Leo Laporte: who's really got good op sec, but he's just Leo Laporte: an individual and I and I actually said to Leo Laporte: him a couple of weeks ago Grayson, don't Leo Laporte: worry, nobody's attacking you. Leo Laporte: They're going after the people with deep Leo Laporte: pockets. Leo Laporte: Right? Leo Laporte: I mean, individuals aren't more at risk, Leo Laporte: are they? Steve Gibson: And yes.
Steve Gibson: So if so, that's a trend. Steve Gibson: And if you said to me what is the event, Steve Gibson: what is the thing in 2023 that stands out, Steve Gibson: I would say the the revelation that we are Steve Gibson: seeing selective decryption of last pass Steve Gibson: wallets. Leo Laporte: So, oh yeah, by the way, this is the one Leo Laporte: year anniversary of the of last pass really Leo Laporte: telling us the truth about what happened. Leo Laporte: They were breached in August of 2022, but Leo Laporte: it was in December December 22nd, exactly Leo Laporte: exactly a year ago, 2022 that they said oh Leo Laporte: yeah, you remember when we told you that in Leo Laporte: August we had a little problem? Leo Laporte: Well, it turns out it was maybe a little Leo Laporte: bit bigger problem. Leo Laporte: The threat I'm quoting, the threat actor Leo Laporte: was able to copy a backup of customer vault Leo Laporte: data.
Leo Laporte: Oh, but don't worry, they're secure, Leo Laporte: they're encrypted. Leo Laporte: And that's been a slow burn story all 2023. Leo Laporte: Correct, combinating a couple of months ago Leo Laporte: in the realization that, in fact, those Leo Laporte: vaults were slowly being decrypted and Leo Laporte: hacked, and it was tens of millions of Leo Laporte: dollars have been drained from from people Leo Laporte: who were using last pass at the time of Leo Laporte: that theft. Leo Laporte: So that's been a one year long story.
Leo Laporte: That started this time one year ago. Leo Laporte: What? Jeff Jarvis: was last passed. Jeff Jarvis: Now, who knows? Jeff Jarvis: I don't know. Steve Gibson: I believe they're owned by a hedge fund Steve Gibson: firm.
Steve Gibson: I think it's an equity capital company. Leo Laporte: Yeah, and that's probably where the you Leo Laporte: know I mean, there's no finance expert here, Leo Laporte: but I think that that is one of the big Leo Laporte: stories of the last couple of years is is Leo Laporte: the aqua, especially in media right, jeff, Leo Laporte: where these equity capital companies would Leo Laporte: have been buying up media properties like Leo Laporte: crazy red ventures on ZD net and CNET and a Leo Laporte: bunch of other blogs. Leo Laporte: And they are not. Leo Laporte: They don't come from publishing I mean Leo Laporte: Rupert Murdoch's more of a publisher than Leo Laporte: they are.
Leo Laporte: They come from money. Jeff Jarvis: And I worked with a guy named John Peyton Jeff Jarvis: who was the president of digital first Jeff Jarvis: media, alden, which is the notorious hedge Jeff Jarvis: fund that now controls most of the Jeff Jarvis: newspaper chains in America. Jeff Jarvis: John schooled me and the other advisors and Jeff Jarvis: he said all they're looking for is bad debt. Jeff Jarvis: They want cheap debt.
Jeff Jarvis: Yeah, they buy the cheap debt. Jeff Jarvis: They know that they're going to get an Jeff Jarvis: asset or at best, cash flow with it, and Jeff Jarvis: they'll milk Bessie until she heals over in Jeff Jarvis: the field and walk away and they'll be fine. Leo Laporte: Well, and the other problem with these guys Leo Laporte: is they often are heavily leveraged Leo Laporte: themselves. Leo Laporte: They usually borrow billions to do these Leo Laporte: acquisitions, which means they've got to Leo Laporte: turn, they've got to make some money, cash Leo Laporte: flow. Rod Pyle: They got cash because they've got interest Rod Pyle: payments.
Leo Laporte: So often what they do is they they're chop Leo Laporte: shops or digital chop shops. Leo Laporte: They buy these brands and and and piecemeal Leo Laporte: them out. Leo Laporte: You see it in media like crazy. Leo Laporte: Look at the but I don't even know who owns Leo Laporte: Time Warner Discovery these days. Jeff Jarvis: I can tell you, I can tell you, I mean time Jeff Jarvis: is is bending off. Jeff Jarvis: Sports Illustrated is the horrible Jeff Jarvis: marketing company that that put up the AI Jeff Jarvis: stuff with the fake authors.
Jeff Jarvis: Fortune is a Thai businessman and the rest Jeff Jarvis: went to Meredith and Meredith went to um, Jeff Jarvis: not dash Meredith, it's just amazing. Jeff Jarvis: They closed a lot of publications, Jeff Jarvis: including my old baby, I don't even weekly. Jeff Jarvis: They had rest in peace, so you were. Rod Pyle: you go ahead. Rod Pyle: Can I ask a question, jeff? Rod Pyle: When I was in grad school studying the Rod Pyle: stuff in the nineties, we were alarmed. Rod Pyle: I think it was Ben Begdickian's book we Rod Pyle: were all reading.
Rod Pyle: We were terrified that less than 12 Rod Pyle: companies owned the the American newspaper Rod Pyle: landscape. Rod Pyle: What's left of it? Rod Pyle: How many owned the media landscape? Jeff Jarvis: now it's a good question. Jeff Jarvis: It's few, but, but I think Ben Begdickian Jeff Jarvis: and that whole company of oh my God, Jeff Jarvis: consolidation was the was the wrong thing Jeff Jarvis: to panic about, which is what we usually do, Jeff Jarvis: is panic about the wrong things.
Jeff Jarvis: Right they were. Jeff Jarvis: They were dinosaurs huddling against the Jeff Jarvis: cold of the future. Jeff Jarvis: It didn't really matter that they Jeff Jarvis: consolidated, uh, because they were going Jeff Jarvis: to shrink and die anyway. Jeff Jarvis: Look what's happened in the last few weeks Jeff Jarvis: and popular science gone. Leo's Laptop Audio: That's sad.
Leo Laporte: How many, how many you rated. Leo Laporte: How many of you old farts read popular Leo Laporte: science when you were kids. Jeff Jarvis: Oh my God, got inspired by it. Jeff Jarvis: Right Old farts. Leo Laporte: Every and every hand in the studio went up. Doc Searls: Popular mechanics, and 73 and bite, of Doc Searls: course, bite.
Leo's Laptop Audio: Bite. Leo's Laptop Audio: How many of you still have copies of bite? Doc Searls: I guess I have copies of bite. Doc Searls: Absolutely, I have a side I have uh I. Leo Laporte: I broke into the business uh writing for Leo Laporte: bite in 1984 when they did their 1984 Leo Laporte: Macintosh cover, one of the first reviews Leo Laporte: of Macintosh uh software that was. Jeff Jarvis: I didn't know that.
Jeff Jarvis: What did you say? Jeff Jarvis: Did you like it? Jeff Jarvis: I said it was good. Leo Laporte: There were four programs you could run on Leo Laporte: your Mac. Leo Laporte: Of course it was good. Leo Laporte: It was something you could put on your Mac Leo Laporte: that fit on a floppy.
Leo Laporte: Was it popular mechanics or popular science Leo Laporte: that published the cover story on the MITS Leo Laporte: Altair that got Steve Ballmer Bill Gates? Steve Gibson: Popular electronics. Leo Laporte: Electronics. Leo Laporte: Okay, oh yeah, another long gone uh title, Leo Laporte: yep, yep, uh. Leo Laporte: You know, it's interesting to live in an Leo Laporte: era where print is pretty much gone. Leo Laporte: I mean, I, you know, 20 years ago I used to Leo Laporte: talk on the radio show about the death of Leo Laporte: physical media and people mocked me.
Leo Laporte: You know, people who love video said, oh no, Leo Laporte: dvds are never go away. Leo Laporte: Uh, some people still say that. Leo Laporte: Oh no, it's the best quality vinyl.
Leo Laporte: Yeah, I mean yeah, there's two record Leo Laporte: stores in town. Leo Laporte: People are still buying DVDs and vinyl. Leo Laporte: But really, come on, let's face it, uh, Leo Laporte: paper books, newspapers, magazines, vinyl, Leo Laporte: cd When's the last time we said I wrote a Leo Laporte: Motley Crude concert about old farts? Leo Laporte: Lisa and I went to a Motley Crude concert Leo Laporte: and, as chair, some charity was going Leo Laporte: around selling Motley Crude's new album on Leo Laporte: a CD and we bought one. Leo Laporte: But I realized after we bought it. Leo Laporte: I don't know where I'm going to play it.
Leo Laporte: Not nothing has. Leo Laporte: I have no CD players, Bandwidth and storage. Doc Searls: Yeah, you've got a USB a device in it that Doc Searls: will play it in a drawer somewhere Doc Searls: underneath piles of dead batteries and Doc Searls: other things next to the zip disc Exploding. Rod Pyle: Yeah. Doc Searls: So you mentioned go ahead. Doc Searls: I was going to say I do this thing where I Doc Searls: visit dying radio stations, and there's one Doc Searls: in Palm Springs I visited a couple of weeks Doc Searls: ago Are there? Jeff Jarvis: any that are.
Jeff Jarvis: That's so dark, that is so perfect dog. Doc Searls: Doing something else? Doc Searls: Yeah, but there's a whole story there, Doc Searls: including the engineer locked us out and Doc Searls: where, like the dog run out, there was a Doc Searls: stack of container boxes that were of the Doc Searls: kind you buy at home depot, with the doors Doc Searls: on top, and they were Fall. Doc Searls: I mean, they were rotted. Doc Searls: I mean the actual plastic was rotted. Doc Searls: They were full of CDs and Inside there were Doc Searls: walls and walls of of open real tapes, the Doc Searls: big reels. Doc Searls: The big reels because they Programs.
Doc Searls: They were a beautiful music station for a Doc Searls: while doing that. Leo Laporte: Sure, they would get those in the mail you Leo Laporte: get a real to reel of this week's music. Doc Searls: That's exactly get a big reel of this Doc Searls: week's music, the whole thing.
Doc Searls: You know it was all programmed to somewhere Doc Searls: else and I mean it's really sad. Doc Searls: I mean it's still on the air, but I Mean Doc Searls: radio. Doc Searls: I mean I love radio and but it's, it's Doc Searls: dying, it's on. Doc Searls: Radio had its century.
Jeff Jarvis: If you think about it's entry, it had a Jeff Jarvis: century. Jeff Jarvis: 1923 to 2023 was the century of radio gone. Leo Laporte: Yeah it breaks my heart really, because I Leo Laporte: love that's how I got in this medium and I Leo Laporte: love this medium and now actually even Leo Laporte: podcasting is kind of. Leo Laporte: It's kind of fading off into the distance. Doc Searls: I'm curious, you know.
Doc Searls: So Spotify is just sort of like admitted Doc Searls: that they've spent a billion dollars on Doc Searls: they blew it. Doc Searls: So how does that affect everybody else? Doc Searls: I mean, oh, we're dying. Doc Searls: We're dying out here, doc.
Doc Searls: Yeah, I know, I just said I don't know how. Doc Searls: How dying? Doc Searls: I hope not it's not good heart. Doc Searls: A heart is still beating, but it's, but Doc Searls: it's. Doc Searls: So is it that the advertisers just suddenly Doc Searls: say well, spotify screwed off, so to hell Doc Searls: with. Doc Searls: Everything is a lot of things.
Leo Laporte: I mean, spotify began a trend towards Leo Laporte: programmatic advertising where, instead of Leo Laporte: me reading it out, we, you know early. Leo Laporte: We started doing this in 2005 and I came Leo Laporte: from a radio background from Arthur Godfrey Leo Laporte: for crying out loud and, and so I was doing Leo Laporte: those you know, host endorsement reads that Leo Laporte: you know People had done for years on radio Leo Laporte: and I started doing it on podcasts and I Leo Laporte: think it. Leo Laporte: Honestly the sad thing to me is I think it Leo Laporte: really worked For our advertisers. Leo Laporte: That's all we ever heard. Leo Laporte: But that's been replaced because Spotify Leo Laporte: doesn't do that.
Leo Laporte: Spotify injects ads and I'll tell you Leo Laporte: what's really going on. Leo Laporte: Steve, you can comment on this. Leo Laporte: What's really going on is mass surveillance Leo Laporte: and Advertisers, whether it's good for them Leo Laporte: or not, whether they can prove its value or Leo Laporte: not, are reluctant to buy ads that don't. Leo Laporte: They don't have lots of demographic Leo Laporte: information About the, the person hearing Leo Laporte: it, about when they heard it, where they Leo Laporte: heard it, how long they listen, all that Leo Laporte: stuff. Leo Laporte: It's it's.
Leo Laporte: It's as wrong as it gets, and RSS can't do Leo Laporte: that. Leo Laporte: A traditional podcast we got you know Leo Laporte: nothing, I know your IP address, that's it. Leo Laporte: But Spotify, if you listen in the app, they Leo Laporte: know everything.
Leo Laporte: They got your credit card dude. Leo Laporte: So advertisers got used to this idea that Leo Laporte: we will buy, just as they do on Facebook, a Leo Laporte: select slice of the audience and in order Leo Laporte: to make that work, spotify has to inject it Leo Laporte: into the podcast, as you're listening to it, Leo Laporte: as you're downloading it, and you know, the Leo Laporte: truth is, I don't think those ads work as Leo Laporte: well. Leo Laporte: They also, because they don't work as well, Leo Laporte: they can't charge as much. Leo Laporte: So it's put pressure on the cost, on the Leo Laporte: price that we can charge people, people. Leo Laporte: We actually are doing programmatic on some Leo Laporte: of our ads because our some, some agencies Leo Laporte: demand it.
Leo Laporte: So there's this kind of this is a look, Leo Laporte: what is it? Leo Laporte: I know a rising tide raises all boats. Leo Laporte: What's it? Leo Laporte: What's it when it's going down? Doc Searls: Yeah, Does life life? Leo Laporte: yeah, Rogan's doing it live and Rogan, by Leo Laporte: the way, gets a million dollars a unit. Leo Laporte: I mean get.
Leo Laporte: So it's not all gone. Leo Laporte: I think what happened is that advertisers Leo Laporte: wanted demographic information we couldn't Leo Laporte: provide and, secondly, that they kind of Leo Laporte: Jeff, you can talk about this. Leo Laporte: There are there are trends in an ad buying, Leo Laporte: and the trend right now is buy an Leo Laporte: influencer. Leo Laporte: But and that's why YouTube's doing so well, Leo Laporte: billy, hundreds of billions of dollars and Leo Laporte: ads moved off TV to YouTube this year. Leo Laporte: That was a what about your son. Steve Gibson: He's doing great and he's an influencer.
Leo Laporte: Okay, just between you and me. Leo Laporte: On Friday a couple of weeks ago he did a Leo Laporte: stream on Amazon for Cheetos one hour for Leo Laporte: eighty nine thousand dollars. Leo's Laptop Audio: You could buy a year of advertising on Leo's Laptop Audio: Twitter.
Rod Pyle: For that you could buy the advance for Rod Pyle: every book I ever wrote. Rod Pyle: Yeah, so it's great for Henry as long as it Rod Pyle: lasts. Leo Laporte: It's great for Marques Brownlee, it's great Leo Laporte: for Linus tech tips, but even companies Leo Laporte: like LTT I just found out they have 200 Leo Laporte: employees.
Leo Laporte: They have a very successful channel on Leo Laporte: YouTube, but most of their money doesn't Leo Laporte: come from ads. Leo Laporte: They have 200 employees. Leo Laporte: Half of them are dedicated to merchandising. Leo Laporte: They make and sell products. Leo Laporte: So I think we're in a time of flux and Leo Laporte: while I'm so glad radio got a century, Leo Laporte: we're gonna get about a dime.
Leo Laporte: Podcasting. Leo Laporte: That's okay. Jeff Jarvis: It's been a lot of it's like the New York Jeff Jarvis: Times, made fun of blogs, thought blogs Jeff Jarvis: were just awful, and then they started Jeff Jarvis: blogging. Jeff Jarvis: And then they got bored with blogging and Jeff Jarvis: they'd ruin it.
Jeff Jarvis: This is what it was him that happened again. Jeff Jarvis: Big old media comes in and they, they Take Jeff Jarvis: over the medium. Jeff Jarvis: This is what Dave Weiner complained at the Jeff Jarvis: time. Jeff Jarvis: I remember that, oh no, don't let him into Jeff Jarvis: blogs, it's gonna be miserable. Jeff Jarvis: And he was right. Leo Laporte: That's, by the way, another old fart we Leo Laporte: should have on this show, because he's a Leo Laporte: classic whiner.
Leo Laporte: I don't want to make the show be a downer, Leo Laporte: by the way. Leo Laporte: I don't want. Leo Laporte: I mean, everybody thought a lot old people.
Leo Laporte: All they're gonna say is you know, on my Leo Laporte: day, thinks were better. Leo Laporte: There was radio Magazine. Leo Laporte: Yes, we had Paul Harvey. Leo Laporte: We good day Thank. Leo Laporte: So you were talking about Bitcoin, steve. Leo Laporte: I was just looking this time last year, Leo Laporte: bitcoin was at forty three thousand dollars.
Leo Laporte: Oh, so, of course, the peak was over Leo Laporte: $60,000 two years ago and now it's kind of Leo Laporte: coming back up. Leo Laporte: It's at forty three thousand at the time of Leo Laporte: recording. Leo Laporte: So, but Do you think cryptocurrency? Leo Laporte: It was a flash in the pan or is? Leo Laporte: Is there some staying power? Steve Gibson: That I've always believed that the Steve Gibson: technology is real, that is, the Steve Gibson: fundamental technology of engineered Steve Gibson: scarcity and this concept of an immutable Steve Gibson: log. Steve Gibson: Those are the things that Satoshi invented Steve Gibson: and on that Was built the idea of you know, Steve Gibson: let's make this worth something. Steve Gibson: Let's just decide that this, that you know, Steve Gibson: these numbers, are dollars, and see what Steve Gibson: happens, and so. Steve Gibson: So there's no problem with that.
Steve Gibson: The problem, as I said, is about human Steve Gibson: nature and about everything that then Steve Gibson: happened. Steve Gibson: When you know, this new type of tulip was Steve Gibson: invented, you know, and everyone went Steve Gibson: insane and it. Leo Laporte: Is that true at all? Leo Laporte: Technology though it's, it rises and falls Leo Laporte: by the people who use it. Leo Laporte: You know and yeah, we're gonna talk about Leo Laporte: AI later and you know, that's exactly the Leo Laporte: case with AI. Leo Laporte: It's not that, it's not the AI, it's not Leo Laporte: the Bitcoin, it's the people.
Steve Gibson: I will. Steve Gibson: I am on the topic of AI insecurity. Steve Gibson: I'll just say that Because technology and Steve Gibson: the internet and communications is the Steve Gibson: medium of AI, I worry that, before this Steve Gibson: podcast is over, leo we're we're gonna be Steve Gibson: looking and it's been extended past 999. Steve Gibson: So you know we have time and you have a Steve Gibson: lease for two and a half years.
Steve Gibson: So I'll bet you that we're gonna see AI Steve Gibson: being used for Penetration, that is, you Steve Gibson: know, yes, and AI Liciously trained on Steve Gibson: network vulnerabilities and this thing gets Steve Gibson: unleashed on the internet and told to go Steve Gibson: find and Penetrate networks and Steve Gibson: unfortunately, it will be very effective. Jeff Jarvis: What will make it effective, steve? Jeff Jarvis: What? Jeff Jarvis: Just because it's raw power of trying to Jeff Jarvis: get it again? Jeff Jarvis: Yeah, it. Steve Gibson: Yes, exactly, you're able to. Steve Gibson: You're able to brute force it.
Steve Gibson: My, my wife, laurie, is playing a game that Steve Gibson: she she found out about when we were in Steve Gibson: Colorado a couple months ago With with my Steve Gibson: sister. Steve Gibson: It's a New York Times game where there's a Steve Gibson: there's a grid of 16 Words and you have to Steve Gibson: group them into four sets. Leo Laporte: Oh, I love that. Leo Laporte: Connections yes. Steve Gibson: Nuts over it.
Steve Gibson: Yeah, and I looked at that and I just Steve Gibson: thought this will die on the throne of AI, Steve Gibson: because AI would have the ability to. Steve Gibson: I mean, jeff, in the same way that humans Steve Gibson: can no longer play chess. Steve Gibson: We had chess for a long time. Steve Gibson: We lost checkers a long time ago, but you Steve Gibson: know, now computers. Jeff Jarvis: I'm still doing tic-tac-toe, steve, Jeff Jarvis: actually. Leo Laporte: But I have to say I think yes, of course AI Leo Laporte: could solve connections probably today, Leo Laporte: because it's exactly what an, a large Leo Laporte: language model, does is make those Leo Laporte: connections.
Leo Laporte: Probably today. Leo Laporte: But just because a computer plays chess Leo Laporte: better than any human alive In fact, your Leo Laporte: phone can be play better chess than any Leo Laporte: human alive, including Magnus Carlson, Leo Laporte: who's the highest rated player of all time Leo Laporte: doesn't mean people have stopped playing. Leo Laporte: People just correct.
Steve Gibson: Like playing each other, right? Steve Gibson: Yeah, and it doesn't mean that AI will Steve Gibson: replace traditional hackers, but Steve Gibson: unfortunately it's probably gonna be able Steve Gibson: to just zip right past them. Steve Gibson: I mean, eventually hackers won't bother Steve Gibson: because they'll just have an AI and they Steve Gibson: can say you know, go find me a Steve Gibson: vulnerability, I want to extort somebody Steve Gibson: well, it's funny what happens when AI meets Steve Gibson: quantum computing. Rod Pyle: I. Leo Laporte: Think it did it's like.
Leo Laporte: So no things exact so this was the year the Leo Laporte: doc is not worried about AI, but I am well Leo Laporte: we'll talk, we're gonna get to see if it's Leo Laporte: your job to worry, you worry about Leo Laporte: everything, right. Rod Pyle: Well, you made his fortune on it, of course, Rod Pyle: of course you are You're worried calm? Leo Laporte: It was about a year ago that a Grandmaster Leo Laporte: of chess, hans Neiman, was accused of Leo Laporte: cheating. Leo Laporte: He beat the Magnus Carlson. Leo Laporte: The at the time the world champion is no Leo Laporte: longer the world champion because he didn't Leo Laporte: defend his title.
Leo Laporte: But they beat him and Carlson got up from Leo Laporte: the table and said if implied that he'd Leo Laporte: cheated. Leo Laporte: There was some question how he cheated. Leo Laporte: They now believes he had a lot. Leo Laporte: I'll just leave it to your imagination.
Leo Laporte: He had a device inserted and Was was Leo Laporte: getting vibrations, vibrations. Steve Gibson: But I I bring that's right uh well, that's Steve Gibson: sure or not? Steve Gibson: That's been. Leo Laporte: The problem is that, yeah, ai could be to Leo Laporte: human. Jeff Jarvis: Human to human chess is still very viable Jeff Jarvis: and fun, right uh, I found a 238% increase Jeff Jarvis: to 102 million users who signed up since Jeff Jarvis: January 2020. Leo Laporte: Yeah, that's the problem. Leo Laporte: Yeah, that's the problem.
Jeff Jarvis: It's not a problem. Leo Laporte: It's humans, and people are doing a cheat, Leo Laporte: and and if you could figure out a way to Leo Laporte: get the message From a computer, you can Leo Laporte: even beat the best player in the world. Leo Laporte: And, by the way, you don't have to get Leo Laporte: every move, it's just if you got five, a Leo Laporte: little nudge, a little little. Leo Laporte: Well, nudge is one more. Jeff Jarvis: It ain't a nudge, it's a new definition of Jeff Jarvis: Riz.
Leo Laporte: The word of the year according to the Leo Laporte: Oxford English dictionary, which apparently Leo Laporte: is much hipper than I am because I had Leo Laporte: never heard of it. Leo Laporte: All right, we are doing your Christmas Eve Leo Laporte: and I am glad you decided to spend a little Leo Laporte: Christmas Eve time with us. Leo Laporte: We've done in the past with the great shots Leo Laporte: of Jaeger Meister, I think, given our Leo Laporte: advanced age, and some tattoos oh, that was Leo Laporte: new. Leo Laporte: Oh, what are you drinking, john? Leo Laporte: I mean, jeff, I got a little red wine left Leo Laporte: over from there. Leo Laporte: That's good.
Leo Laporte: How about you, doc? Leo Laporte: You got anything? Doc Searls: My sister's brought me this ice water. Doc Searls: I swat her before there was actually tea. Doc Searls: That'll warm your veins.
Jeff Jarvis: To your tool for caffeine. Leo Laporte: Well, grab a beverage, the old farts. Leo Laporte: A holiday special for Christmas. Leo's Laptop Audio: Eve. Leo Laporte: Continues in just a little bit.
Leo Laporte: Hey, this week in tech is brought to you Leo Laporte: this week by rocket money. Leo Laporte: If I asked you oh and this is a painful Leo Laporte: question how many subscriptions You're Leo Laporte: paying for right now, would you be able to Leo Laporte: list them all and how much they cost and Leo Laporte: when they renew? Leo Laporte: If you had rocket money, you would know. Leo Laporte: If you'd asked me before I started using Leo Laporte: rocket money, I had no idea.
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Leo Laporte: We are talking the end of the year and, as Leo Laporte: always I like to do at the end of the year, Leo Laporte: I get together with some of my favorite Leo Laporte: people and we Chat about what we've Leo Laporte: observed. Leo Laporte: Here we have four of our best show hosts. Leo Laporte: Hosts Rod pile of this week in space Leo Laporte: Security. Leo Laporte: Now Steve Gibson.
Leo Laporte: Doc Searles from Floss Weekly. Leo Laporte: Jeff Jarvis From this week in Google Doc. Leo Laporte: Was this the year of desktop Linux? Doc Searls: Every year is now because you know your Doc Searls: your phone well, your you palm top Linux Doc Searls: With with Android is Linux.
Doc Searls: Yeah but on top of that, I mean bet on if Doc Searls: you but you're using BSD. Doc Searls: If you got a Mac, I'm pretty sure I'm emina Doc Searls: and I it's a you next, yeah, I think it's a Doc Searls: unit, it's. Doc Searls: He looks underneath all that, yeah, but I Doc Searls: mean it actually. Doc Searls: Chromebooks are doing pretty hot.
Doc Searls: Yeah, chromebooks are doing. Leo Laporte: That's a. Leo Laporte: That's Jeff Staley driver. Doc Searls: He's a Chromebook guy. Doc Searls: Oh, really, your Chromebook.
Doc Searls: Look at this, you got an aces Chromebook. Doc Searls: Very nice, that's. Doc Searls: Yeah, I don't, I'm talking to you Mac, but Doc Searls: there's BSD under all of that. Doc Searls: But I actually put it out to my, my core of Doc Searls: of co-hosts and got that.
Doc Searls: The big thing this year is red hat killing Doc Searls: sent OS. Doc Searls: Which is there. Doc Searls: That was a shocker. Doc Searls: Yeah, that was a shocker Sent OS was an Doc Searls: enterprise Linux. Leo Laporte: That was widely prized because it was very Leo Laporte: stable right and you could kind of put your Leo Laporte: servers on it and count on it. Leo Laporte: But but red hats and was bought by IBM.
Leo Laporte: That was what precipitated all of this. Leo Laporte: What is red had supposed offering now? Leo Laporte: I mean, did they replace it? Doc Searls: Well, they well. Doc Searls: I Don't fully understand it. Doc Searls: I think what you should do is go to hack a Doc Searls: day and see what John it's been it wrote Doc Searls: about it. Doc Searls: He's a co-host to share there.
Doc Searls: With love John, I was trying to bone up on Doc Searls: it. Doc Searls: He's great on this stuff and the big Doc Searls: question with it is is what then? Doc Searls: Whatever it is they're doing, does it Doc Searls: violate the GPL in some way? Doc Searls: And and and Actually another co-host, simon Doc Searls: Phipps, had a really good one liner, which Doc Searls: is that Licenses don't compile, meaning Doc Searls: licenses are fuzzier than that. Doc Searls: You know they're not. Doc Searls: You don't run them like code. Doc Searls: It's just basically governance that you try Doc Searls: to obey and you know, and they kind of hold Doc Searls: the society together and it's it's an open Doc Searls: thing. Doc Searls: I mean there's Alma, linux and some others Doc Searls: that have come along to sort of.
Doc Searls: Then there's issues going on with those as Doc Searls: well. Doc Searls: So so that's one thing. Doc Searls: Another is Steam Deck. Doc Searls: So that would for gaming.
Doc Searls: That's kind of hot. Doc Searls: Well, that's a good point, that was a that Doc Searls: yeah. Leo Laporte: Val held gaming device runs Linux, although Leo Laporte: there yeah, you know aces then put out one Leo Laporte: that ran on Windows. Leo Laporte: I don't think it's become quite as popular Leo Laporte: as the Steam Deck.
Doc Searls: I don't know. Doc Searls: The big thing for me personally is that and Doc Searls: just looking back across all the guests Doc Searls: that we've had on which are, you know, so Doc Searls: far, 50 of them I suppose this year there's Doc Searls: this sort of generalized concern that, as Doc Searls: as as open source becomes more and more Doc Searls: normalized inside companies, that and Doc Searls: everything's in containers and it's all Doc Searls: many levels above the silicon and above the Doc Searls: kernel and whatever else you're running Doc Searls: that the open source ethos is getting Doc Searls: pretty diluted. Doc Searls: It's the, the hardcore, the people who Doc Searls: still are with Foss weekly, every week, and Doc Searls: before that with Linux journal.
Doc Searls: There's about 10,000 of them and they're, Doc Searls: they're hardcore, they care about it and Doc Searls: and I'm sure there's a lot more than that, Doc Searls: but there's. Doc Searls: But there is a kind of a hardcore there, Doc Searls: but it's not, they're wizards and and Doc Searls: they're. Doc Searls: I think that if I were to summarize what I Doc Searls: think I see going on, is that there's a Doc Searls: Mugly aspect to a lot of the development Doc Searls: that's going on.
Doc Searls: An open source oh, what a muggy. Doc Searls: Like Muggles, as in there they're muggles, Doc Searls: they're. Doc Searls: They don't belong to Slytherin or Griffin Doc Searls: or or any of those. Leo Laporte: They're not wizards, they're just normal. Doc Searls: They could do wizardy things. Doc Searls: They could.
Doc Searls: They could wield the thing and make magic Doc Searls: happen. Doc Searls: It's not that they can't do magic, but the Doc Searls: but, the, the ethos are sharing of. Doc Searls: Of. Doc Searls: You know, this is great XKCD Cartoon that Doc Searls: shows a heap of of stones that are here. Doc Searls: Here's the edifice of the internet, and Doc Searls: there's one stone holding up all of the Doc Searls: others over here. Doc Searls: This is, yeah, that's the one.
Doc Searls: I had it pulled up already, doc, as soon as Doc Searls: you started talking this. Doc Searls: I know every it's one of the classics. Doc Searls: It's just and that's it. Leo Laporte: This is. Leo Laporte: It looks like, yeah, it's blocks or stones Leo Laporte: all standing one another and it's all Leo Laporte: modern digital infrastructure, and then it Leo Laporte: all depends on this little slim block. Leo Laporte: That's a project some random person in Leo Laporte: Nebraska has been Thanklessly maintaining Leo Laporte: since 2003, on a two-year.
Leo Laporte: We've talked about this, steve, on on your Leo Laporte: show on security now, yeah, this is a Leo Laporte: problem. Leo Laporte: I think that these, these maintainers are Leo Laporte: doing a thankless job. Leo Laporte: You've talked a little bit about how some Leo Laporte: of these repositories, like Pi Pi and Leo Laporte: others, have been a place where hackers a Leo Laporte: constant attack. Steve Gibson: Now, yeah, bad guys trying to put malicious Steve Gibson: packages in there, in in what we now have, Steve Gibson: the so-called supply chain attack, where Steve Gibson: you attack the software upstream that other Steve Gibson: programmers are downloading and binding Steve Gibson: into their projects, and Out it goes.
Steve Gibson: And of course, a big scare was the log for Steve Gibson: J vulnerability that we had and and that Steve Gibson: and that was it was a heavily used Java Steve Gibson: library that it turns out in very specific Steve Gibson: situation and conditions you were able to Steve Gibson: take advantage remotely of a slight design Steve Gibson: flaw and the problem was that this thing Steve Gibson: had been, it would have been embedded in so Steve Gibson: many other projects that the good news was Steve Gibson: it wasn't easily Exploitable and so we Steve Gibson: didn't see the end of the internet happen. Steve Gibson: But you know, here it was, it was free and Steve Gibson: the guy who wrote it, you know he didn't Steve Gibson: make a mistake on purpose, but neither is Steve Gibson: he paying, you know, bug bounties to have Steve Gibson: his code checked, because you know the Steve Gibson: ecosystem doesn't support that model. Leo Laporte: Well, this and to take it back to what you Leo Laporte: were saying, doc, I think it really does Leo Laporte: come back to the fact that these major Leo Laporte: corporations, these big money-making Leo Laporte: companies like IBM, are kind of taking Leo Laporte: advantage of open source. Leo Laporte: They're not putting the money back in, Leo Laporte: they're not supporting this guy in Nebraska, Leo Laporte: they're not making sure stuff secure, Leo Laporte: they're just using open source. Leo Laporte: Does that seem? Doc Searls: well, I don't think it's entirely fair. Doc Searls: I think IBM is.
Doc Searls: So here's a little, a little bit of history. Doc Searls: I was very mused by like and back when Doc Searls: Linux world existed, back in like that, 99, Doc Searls: 9899, the first time IBM showed up there. Doc Searls: It was actually just with guys in suits Doc Searls: with black shoes and and and and there was Doc Searls: a post one red shoes. Leo Laporte: White shirt skinny black ties, I know. Doc Searls: Protectors, and and they had a. Doc Searls: They had a.
Doc Searls: They had a single booth devoted to Doc Searls: something called web sphere, which is their Doc Searls: web server, not that anybody cared. Doc Searls: And and the next year they had beanbags and Doc Searls: ethernet tables all over the place and Doc Searls: geeks laying around it and they were like Doc Searls: they were. Doc Searls: They were spending money, saying we love Doc Searls: Linux, and what happened was explained to Doc Searls: me by the geeks there, by geeks there that, Doc Searls: oh Well, they found that they had several Doc Searls: million instances of sampler running on old Doc Searls: Doing file and print on old Windows Doc Searls: machines that weren't working anymore. Doc Searls: And so what? Doc Searls: And then they did a survey and they told me Doc Searls: this they did the the guys are no longer Doc Searls: wearing suits and we're, you know, pro Doc Searls: Linux that they surveyed one of their, Doc Searls: their divisions, which is why survey the Doc Searls: world.
Doc Searls: They have a big division, is kind of like Doc Searls: they look, as I just say how you doing in Doc Searls: there, you know so. Doc Searls: They said they tested for five levels of Doc Searls: Linux awareness and Bottom level was Doc Searls: conspelled in X and top level is hacks Doc Searls: kernel code and found that all 600 could Doc Searls: spell Linux and like a Fifth of them or Doc Searls: something where hacking not only hacking Doc Searls: kernel code were Maintainers wow, kernel, I Doc Searls: mean. Doc Searls: And so basically what happened is IBM got Doc Searls: Went into compliance with his own engineers Doc Searls: and later Microsoft did exactly the same Doc Searls: thing. Doc Searls: You know that Bing ran on on Linux. Doc Searls: You know what else is he are running on. Doc Searls: You know they're working on their own stuff, Doc Searls: so so what? Doc Searls: But I was told a number of times that Doc Searls: people at IBM that they they really really Doc Searls: really had kind of a species change Over Doc Searls: this thing.
Doc Searls: But this is in the aughts roughly, and I Doc Searls: think that there's we were talking about Doc Searls: being farts. Doc Searls: You know they would. Doc Searls: Corey doctor, who talks about something Doc Searls: called Injification. Leo Laporte: Oh my god, that was the term of the year, Leo Laporte: by the way Oxford.
Doc Searls: English and should have used that instead Doc Searls: of Riz, yeah and and I don't think, I don't Doc Searls: think every company inch buys, I think, Doc Searls: wordpress, for example. Doc Searls: I think that met Mullenweg is doing a Doc Searls: fabulous job. Doc Searls: He was on with us this year and he Doc Searls: celebrates. Leo Laporte: Yeah, he was on my show too.
Leo Laporte: It's all about a source. Doc Searls: Yeah, he's all about open source and you Doc Searls: know um I. Doc Searls: They support RSS. Doc Searls: They support a lot of good things.
Doc Searls: Dave Winder's been working closely with Doc Searls: them. Doc Searls: They saved my blog, which had been at Doc Searls: Harvard, and Harvard decided to close its Doc Searls: service. Leo's Laptop Audio: Yeah, that's a great story. Doc Searls: And worked really closely with the Harvard Doc Searls: people to make sure nothing got 404'd at Doc Searls: all. Doc Searls: Everything redirects to something Doc Searls: maintained at Pressable, which is a Doc Searls: WordPress site hosting service.
Doc Searls: I mean good guys, really good people, and I Doc Searls: think there are some of those at an IBM. Doc Searls: But I just think when you get big enough Doc Searls: and you get far enough away from whatever Doc Searls: it is that made you cool, I don't know, I Doc Searls: mean it's there's a different story, but Doc Searls: this is when the Craig Burton told me back Doc Searls: when he was alive, that was a time to do it, Doc Searls: a long time ago. Doc Searls: It was after he'd left Novell, and he said Doc Searls: at that time he said well, you know, Doc Searls: there's this myth of the in some religion, Doc Searls: of the giant snake that circles the world, Doc Searls: and the trick is to know for the tail, to Doc Searls: know when the head is dead, because it Doc Searls: takes a while. Doc Searls: And and he maintained at that time that Doc Searls: IBM's head was dead. Doc Searls: I don't think it was, but I think, the more Doc Searls: you're dealing only with the big Doc Searls: enterprises, and that's your entire, you Doc Searls: know, customer base you're too detached, Doc Searls: you know, and and I think that obviously, I Doc Searls: think the colonel is working fine, but the Doc Searls: colonel works in everything.
Doc Searls: I mean your clock, your watch, your, you Doc Searls: know, door ringer, all that kind of stuff Doc Searls: is running on Linux and so it has to run Doc Searls: everywhere and that's kind of an ethos is Doc Searls: built into Linux. Doc Searls: But I don't know, I mean there's a, there's Doc Searls: a species change that I think I mean. Doc Searls: When I first started out in Silicon Valley Doc Searls: with my little company, we realized that Doc Searls: there were three stages that companies grew Doc Searls: there was new, there was hot and there was Doc Searls: big, and there were completely different Doc Searls: stages and you had different people really Doc Searls: running it at different times.
Doc Searls: A few could stay through the whole thing, Doc Searls: but there's something that comes after big, Doc Searls: you know, and it's and ever, ever seen Doc Searls: Jeffrey West and why companies die, why, Doc Searls: why cities live in companies die, no, the Doc Searls: company, it's really good. Doc Searls: Look up Jeffrey GEO FFREY West. Doc Searls: He's a Santa Fe Institute and he wrote a Doc Searls: big book called scale. Doc Searls: That's about this that that companies are Doc Searls: inherently closed systems and we're closed Doc Searls: systems. Doc Searls: That's how we got old, you know, and how Doc Searls: we're all going to die, because we're Doc Searls: closed systems.
Doc Searls: And companies tend to be closed systems and Doc Searls: I think a few like WordPress, do their best. Doc Searls: They stay as open as they possibly can. Doc Searls: And you know one like IBM, even though they Doc Searls: bought red hat. Doc Searls: It's just not, you know, sooner or later Doc Searls: they're they're going to die.
Doc Searls: They're they're going to die like everyone Doc Searls: was going to die. Leo Laporte: Yeah, for a while I think we thought these Leo Laporte: companies that the business cycle was over, Leo Laporte: that companies like Google and Apple and Leo Laporte: Microsoft have gotten so big that they'd Leo Laporte: actually defeated the business cycle and Leo Laporte: that no one could succeed them. Doc Searls: But I think we know now that's not true, Doc Searls: right, I think I think it's not true. Doc Searls: I mean we have to. Doc Searls: I mean, in a long. Doc Searls: It's pretty hard to look at Apple right now Doc Searls: and say how can they fail? Doc Searls: You know, well, they can, right, I'm sure Doc Searls: they they sure they can.
Leo Laporte: Well, we thought Facebook would never fail, Leo Laporte: and I think you can make an argument that Leo Laporte: Facebook is no longer dominant. Leo Laporte: I think. Leo Laporte: That's too great, I think, as AI, and Leo Laporte: what's doing? Jeff Jarvis: great Jeff.
Doc Searls: It's a Facebook stock, Meta stock. Doc Searls: I know I know this Interesting. Leo Laporte: I don't know what it is. Leo Laporte: Yeah, I you know. Leo Laporte: I think AI could unseat Google.
Jeff Jarvis: Google's still dominant in search effect Jeff Jarvis: more than ever, but I think AI could they Jeff Jarvis: think Google stock was up 5% today and I'm Jeff Jarvis: guessing it's because of Genesis. Leo Laporte: Genesis. Leo Laporte: We played a demo on twig a couple of weeks Leo Laporte: ago.
Leo Laporte: Donishing, that was mind boggling. Leo Laporte: Now it's good. Leo Laporte: Yeah, jeff had to talk me down he said you Leo Laporte: know, this is an edited demo and it's Leo Laporte: they're showing, they're showing the best Leo Laporte: results. Leo Laporte: But it was kind of uncanny. Leo Laporte: I mean, I, if it's anything close to the Leo Laporte: way Gemini actually works, I think we're Leo Laporte: awfully close to AGI. Leo Laporte: Oh boy, there's a you know what let's take Leo Laporte: a break, and then AGI would be a good topic Leo Laporte: to get into.
Leo Laporte: And, by the way, rod, I'm going to talk Leo Laporte: about space, because this was the year of Leo Laporte: Elon Musk, that's for sure, and his success Leo Laporte: and space have only been matched by his Leo Laporte: failures in social. Leo Laporte: So we'll talk about both in just a little Leo Laporte: bit. Leo Laporte: You're watching a very, I think a very Leo Laporte: special Christmas Eve show. Leo Laporte: Doc reminds me you were o