Felix and we are going to look at th8ng analysis of the following stocks were actually look at the Vix we can look at qqq and also Chinese tech index and then we're gonna take into palantir Apple so 5DD nvda PayPal and Alibaba up with him not order this is actually heading or the indicator telling us generally and then going to get the specific stocks I truly appreciate that I can subscribe and always bear in mind that is not an advice that's just me and do your own due diligence now this is the chart I wanted to show you and let me remove one first so I'm going to buy my chief financial analyst this is the one you might hear making a bit of a racket so what if we got install the index is a hugely misunderstood index basically measures or predicts quality coming forward in the next 30 days so fixes as the 18.5 what does that mean it means that volatility in the next month will be about 1.5% the market going up or down 1.5% and how do you get there will you divide the VI number by 12 that's how many months we have it's based on basically short-term Futures and that's how we go to that number now there is one way of telling whether it is too high or too low and what that means and that's comparing it to the 10 day moving average so you just put an m8n lining here any indicator any chance of daylight do that and then you'll get that blue line here and the more she is approving the more you are above it if the more it means that at2 fearful and actually a really is coming in the morning you are below of the more it implies that people are complacent and actually the markets going to either go down or sideways so it's an interesting way of looking at this and I'm gonna pull up qqq so the spy for you because that's the creating index and as soon as a little bit here to see where that I've just told you make sense in the real world so the colourful line is the VI the volatility index and then the orange line is the S&P 500 and what can you see what you can see in the Mods crash of last year when we were really really high above the 10 day moving average we were actually at the bottom of the rally here so let me just just the force if I put a little dotted line in here you can see where we were really above the 10 day moving average and that was near the bottom of the market so the rally was cut it was actually would have been a fantastic time to buy it doesn't predict exactly the bottom of the market but then nothing does otherwise we all billionaires and then similarly here in November you can see that the red green lines in the background a rally tap and the market was kind of overdoing it and then recovered so what are we doing right now well we are we have thought about it and now we are kind of catching up with ourselves so the market is actually recovering and let me just move these ones a little bit closer together so I can zoom in a little for you and what do you can see well though I kind of squash the chat a little bit here but essentially we are we have gone up a little bit with the spy and the same time volatility indexes come down here so we are still only ever so slightly above and volatility line so what does that mean it means we are still a little bit too fearful but not that fearful that's basically what volatility is telling us that was a long way of telling you that goes let's have a quick look and a match for us to look at the kwetb this is a big and very popular China internet ETS if you if you didn't know it and it's kinda crashing down massively from like 100 down to just 40 here or 43 now is it going to go lower is the real question I think it will I think the big-ticket stocks are going to bleed a little bit more and you can see these loads we have here at sort of 83a putting in some lines and purple 38 rather and m36 so to me those I kind of the support levels that let me put some some flags and as you can see when I'm talking about it about 38 because quite baby quite a bit of support and then also down here to the 3604 me that's possibly where we might catch a break just a little bit further down and that also will take us basically back to where we are sort of trading around 2017 levels here on average at the moment so definitely the big tech stocks are looking cheap but at least the US sentiment for an appetite For Change and stocks isn't as marvellous as I should be there watch out and putting another video out where I'm going to go through some of the regulatory changes and some of this is going to come up it's brilliant I ever leave China is going to comply with the FCC requirements for the holding foreign companies accountable at and that's gonna take away a huge huge argument against Chinese stocks so let's Create get cracking with the qqq then because that's what most of you are invested in and how is that looking well actually it's doing that nicely I mean it's just continues to be on this marvelous beautiful long-term growth trajectory which I would sort of put in here something like this so we are near the bottom part of that particular path of drawing in here Mazuma little bit for you and so weird with kind of gone sideways really since about midday and that's fine there's nothing wrong with a bit of consolidation in the queue queue actually hasn't really underperformed we see very good volume by Encia at where we are right now 366 that's kind of the pka of the blue Bar adjust the volume by and we also had a substantial amount of people selling out and taking profits and worrying a little bit momentum is basically at 0 and that's not a bad place to be so it's coming up from negative towards the purple I'm here being 10 40 and that's ok you know we we basically means we're coming out of the woodwork hear the last time we did that was right here so that was on the 19th of July and at the beginning of a little bit of a Raleigh which got US into the sideways action here so I don't think there's anything particularly to worry about and Q's momentum here now let's dig into some stocks shall we and let's dig into palantir that's what's first on the list by the way I do put the timings on for each Dr Angelo so I should have said that the Beginning if there are things you are not interested or more interested in your free to jump around and back and forth and and and all that sort of thing so palantir what's going on the well I'm wrestling with my cat loses overthinking in research around here well we've had this lovely jump up after after an extremely moved up here and actually we've held it we traded a bit sideways a bit at the bit down but overall we've held our gains yes we've had two days of selves but we've had those two days off Sonos on falling off volume to eight volumes declining here while our stocks addict lining also at the top here and that really just means that the strength of that sell off is declining so I'm not particularly worried about we are holding the support levels of $24 and that's important let me throw up momentum as well for this and you can see that momentum is still very very positive it's that's the zero line of putting down here and we are substantially about that so I don't think there's anything to worry about it I think they had solid numbers they are improving things have a cold winter convinced Wall Street yet no they haven't had my take a few more quarters you saw some of that funny commentary on Wall Street here if there is also good again and another somehow a downside to growing a rich I say concert I have not appreciated previously now let's look at the Apple with the well again trading sideways they're like a little bit like the market so this is essentially the the Q movement that we saw here I could just kind of trading sideways last 2-days looking positive momentum also picking up quite nicely down here horizontal line in here to mention has turned positive again I do think that these texts talks are safe bets in this in the space of Apple Amazon PayPal PayPal Microsoft and so on because they are so profitable and they have so much cash flow excuse the meowing in the background as she's excited about out of stock so it's looking decent I don't think there's a problem here with it I don't think apple particularly sold off Brad and you can issue here so let's move on to the more exciting stocks and that would be nio and I mean exciting not because of the better stock just because there's a lot more happening over there like my cat is wrestling with me know what's going on here well we can see that momentum is the me find a 0 line here is definitely come down to the basement has recovered a little bit here so what is this all about well it's a bunch of nonsense in terms of news one is that there may or may not be a wealth tax in China somehow that would hit luxury goods which could well be true or just thought of it the cm and luxury goods now I think you know Louis Vuitton or Bentley or Rolls-Royce is a luxury car is a premium car I don't think it's a luxury cause I don't think that really false in that space there are plenty of people who just drive an Audi and I don't think anything offered and I think nio falls in that space and it's a Chinese brand people would much prefer to buy the Chinese brand then the foreign made brand even if it is made in China so I think there is much to love story we have also that data regulation out which is again nothing unusual in there just read it read it for yourself and the video on that yesterday I showed it to you also the link there really isn't anything in there that is is a scary but what's going to happen here are we are we finding a bottom of the problem is of course that there isn't no bottom between essentially $31 and where we are right now that doesn't mean we're going to have to drop that low but there is basically no trading history and recent times in that because in this whole time here here we were not in that price range and that's doesn't doesn't really help but we do have a bit of support here of the last few days that We Created and let me zoom in on this for you as a we do have some support levels now obviously the wave closed but really I take the low off the market usually as the support to 3658 and also or thereabouts 36250 support levels there are a couple of more over here the lower of that day which was 3687 space we do have quite a bit of a support so there is some good news on on the VAT structures being officially recognised by the Chinese government and now also on ordered papers I do think that will benefit them the tube prices might just drag the whole sector down a bit cos we have the next one but again I actually think if you listen to my near videos that's a benefit to me you're in the long run so in the short-term this might not be fireworks but I think the long-term this is a very solid stock from my perspective not know what you should do you have to do with your own checking always if you want to learn technical analysis and how to get cats out of your face and check out my master stocks Goes Down Below which is where I teach you all about checking the analysis and of course also fundamental value investing and long-term investing and how to take good stocks and avoid the bad ones and compound yourself too well to check it out here 29% off build welfare is it it's somewhere here that one expires at the end of the week which is Sunday New York Times at the end of Sandy York time expires so take advantage of it but it's still there for now so far is unfortunately a a bit of a falling knife still in I've been saying that for some time is that I like the business I like the concept I like a lot about it and I think the disruption is absolutely essential and necessary but look at what momentum is doing it's just going lower and not surprising because the stock is also it seems to be sort of catching itself around about $14 and $14 is of course a psychological the important point it's also pretty much the low we had here on the 13th of May let me just put a little line into that him that one there and horizontal line across so that was our kind of the nearest low we have a d sort of price levels in it's only a one time dip which isn't the strongest support in the world so I wouldn't get my shirt on it but it is better than nothing and we are kind of respecting that so the $14 level in in the last 4 days it's not a surprise that we close just about $14 now that does also mean that if we do for some reason because Jerome Powell open system out of the end of the week and said something unpleasant or said anything at all really you know if we do drop below that then we don't really have much support between 12 and $14 so there is a bit of a bit of a risk with that is why I would say that this is still a potentially a falling knife so that's 4 days moving sideways Gavin main a we have bottomed out let's look at DD strangely enough they have recovered 3.75% they have just releasing upgrade to the app in China which should have just
means that they are still alive and kicking people are picking them and they're still responding patients still alive a bit for me I don't invest in things that look like this because you know that line could in a month's time still be much lower they are still 7 government investigations going onto DVD and I think quite frankly didi has embarrassed the whole Chinese equity sector in I think therefore they are going to be treated with the the the ruthless side of the lord so I I wouldn't actually personally speaking I think there is opportunity for this 24 much much lower it's also not a profitable business despite 90% market share it which also brings the antitrust investigations under the doormat which have been there since June since pre-ipo so for me this is not in investable equity but you might well be in touch and you might be wondering what to do well if you have a lot of patience and level of time they will eventually survive and get out of this is so you know there is always patient now NVIDIA at a marvellous day yesterday 5% up previous day 4% up on really strong volume and that's lovely to see in that's also taken our momentum here absolutely wonderfully into positive territory so you see that that down here can I get an arrow indicator works of similarly but different it's good to always banner coupler indicators and again he got a buy signal from the RSI on basically than 19 so my line is a little bit towards the end to the right of way there's chats cross because I've really got the bike beginning of the Day 2 days ago on the 19th so that's it up with so things the mend my eyes looking very positive but nvda now PayPal which is my biggest holding a bit of a headache after earnings not because earnings were bad earnings to actually really good but because they gave sort of cautious forward guidance earnings for a 2.3% DEET and it's been punished for it it's making a very slow recovery so it's it's sort of saying well they trading sideways were a bit cautious here and we just crossed the 100 day moving average line which is a blue line down the background so that's really important because that acted as we sold off as a support line here and then we broke the lowered in Albir back above it cos really die stocks a bit like the qqq don't fall off and below the 100-day moving average line because they are great and so they just compounds the year they get bigger every year they make more money more free cash flows are reinvested and get good Returns on at that reinvestment and they become bigger and bigger and bigger and it's just like a snowball effect essentially momentum still negative so it needs to approach that purple line here at 0 and similarly for the address I have not heard by yet so if you are looking for the ideal opportunity to get in on this at the moment is still limping psyche positively sideways and baba baba best brand of a lot of the bad sinus torque setting sentiment because it's the one Chinese stop that most people can name and be because they are so such a diversified business with their fingers and absolutely every party there isn't the economy that if the finance sector has investigated the 850 e-visa data regulation get hurt because they provide the operating systems for car manufacturers they have their own the only EV joint venture if anything that happens basically Alibaba is involved in the industry and therefore all bad news Alibaba so parasite is showing us the most miserable lying down here it's basically since 4th of August is going in that direction momentum also is she going into the basement and continues to and the stocks doing exactly the same thing and surprisingly and it's doing it and this is this is what's much much more serious it's doing it on increasing volume so this is volume and this is the stock and that's the combination you don't wish to see on a stock that you hold to that I'm not happy about it but it is just what it is so this is basically bearing all of the Wrath of the US media and Chinese regulators at the same time it's at 157 could go below 150 yes it could is it worth more I personally think it is from the fundamentals look at back of earlier but no videos and lots of them maybe 100 of them and great business but there is some caution hear the regulation is gonna not just continue until the end of the year that I think most of it will be concluded by Chinese New Year which sort of February time ish if there will be more more regulation she's going forward the next year's it's part of the 5-year government plan to kind of the rain in excesses in the economy and you might be thinking well that sort of dramatic politics not really because they haven't had any regulations so it's been an incredibly free digital economy with 0 regulation and that's a really changing so there is a big caution here it's I think something really only for people with very very long time Horizons and then for them it's a great stock but just don't expect quick profits from this so I think that's about a rap from me but before I let you go you are going to have to take some of my free offering are you not to buy anything I just go to my website take the free £5 Mini still cause or download my step-by-step guide to boost your investment returns today or take the quiz find out what sort of invested you are and I will send you relevant information to you I've had to make your investment in your Financial Planning better and it's all completely free to take it out go to academy.org down below and if you are ready to make an investment in yourself consider my premium courses my mantra is always that my free courses in my free materials have to be 90% better than everybody else's and the premium materials have to be truly exceptional and of course you also get to join our lovely community with that then you can ask me questions about anything you like anything at all ideally investment related or cat or dog related but anything I will do so 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2021-08-24