Friends, I welcome you to the Ninja Capital channel, this is a morning review, let's look at the current situation, what news is expected and which based on this movement is most likely to happen today for the key asset of the oil dollar, the gold ruble, the euro, and so on, so let's start with the calendar and go to today. data on the consumer price index in china here inflation is starting to gain momentum a little, but from my point of view, inflation in china has a more complex effect than, for example, in the west, because in the west, if inflation occurs within reasonable limits, it is always economic growth in china, it seems, too it must be because there is the production of surplus value, but something I have a suspicion that this growth was due to the fact that there was an increase in commodities, that is, this is not so good good inflation that arises from the fact that demand is stimulated most likely from my subjective point of view it is t growth ascertaining the rise in prices for raw materials so friends gave today the data of the trade balance of germany, this information is of an intermediate nature, although it may in a certain way shake the euro against the dollar, but further 17:00 the number of open vacancies in the us labor market in June but here how if the situation is clear and that the us labor market is under the microscope, it is radiated from all sides, and the number of initial applications for unemployment is both total unemployment and the number of open vacancies, that is, it turns out this is not even a 3d 4d and 5d projection, so friends let's see how things are with k species so could the third wave, in fact, is gaining momentum while within the framework of the world scale there is no decline, there is an increase in new cases of the United States and recently it is under a very big question what is happening in Southeast Asia and China at the current moment in China due to the development of the delta strain revised GDP growth instead of 8.6 growth is expected to be 8.3 percent ordinary this is only based on your assumption of how the new, but not new, already familiar takes and the virus corona strain has spread and will continue to spread and the virus corona strain is also a plus to this whole situation , the situation of connection with the harvest is very unfavorable, it is noted that in Europe and in other regions there will be losses due to the fact that such fluctuations were in temperature and various misfortunes this year is somehow strangely especially strongly pursuing already French wine will be prepared by 30 percent less, unfortunately you are, but this is, plus perhaps the Russian wine producer will grow very well on this news, especially on New Year's Eve The point of confrontation between the United States and China is that, according to information that periodically seeps into the chair, China purposefully collected information about American citizens and now, in fact , every Americans in China has a dossier, but even here in the near future there will be a new one. tensions to free America Americans from all sorts of Chinese services, well, again, this is about what will happen to Chinese companies that are traded on American sites, I think here the degree of heat will most likely gradually increase so well, here's another thing that concerns in general, in principle, military spending military military the costs of what is connected with the houses the production of weapons the maintenance of the army hiring people this topic is quite complex, not just me here, as it were, the key point is that what is produced by the military-industrial complex any of you while in any country, as a rule, these goods they have, on the one hand, a narrow range of applications on the other hand, there are usually quite high costs because there is an orientation towards obtaining a certain quality of certain characteristics, we are not left, that is, of course, there are the same machines, they are produced in large quantities, but machines are one thing, another thing is products that require more painstaking use of technologies, the same drones R Different electronic radar systems, and so on, but of course, the United States is the largest in terms of the military budget, then there is such an interesting plate, in principle, the composition of the armed forces, that is, people connected to their display of the war, and so on, then here the leader for some reason turns out to be Russia only then the United States but even here there is such a moment that everything related to the war while it generally lies with the economy and development in most cases in all countries , the expectation that some kind of cataclysm of some armageddon will occur in the fall, well, there is still a certain ratio between the developing markets and developed markets america snp 500 and so on, but here I would like to draw your attention to the fact that there is such an opinion is not entirely correct and from my point of view that the Americans have printed so many dollars that they will soon cost nothing, the fact is that in general the current financial system it is built in such a way that due to the emission, including the dollar in the export of inflation, so if the dollar and nothing is empty, then the question is how much other currencies will cost and whether their purchasing power will be damaged in the first place, what can be bought with them, but here, based on the ratio, I would say the situation is still twofold if the operation on what was dash 97 in 2002, when one in this ratio was achieved, then here, as it were, we are on the verge of growth of the world economy imagine a model, but the truth is this growth arose after some 3 4 perhaps five years of being in something like that no well and as expected, there must be some events, a crisis, well, or something will break out, so let's see what else is there on the news with the audio frame, it is supposed to pay very large dividends of 75 billion, they are supposed to spend on this, they are already looking for where to get financing there are certain nuances that are connected due to the fact that at the moment the purchase of Saudi oil, including from Asia , has decreased , well, the situation is clear there is no demand melting due to the fact that there is an outbreak now, well, somewhere outbreak, somewhere they say expectations of an outbreak of this solo of the new delta headquarters to the type of epidemic and besides this, Saudi Arabia has raised prices for oil supplies to Asia and this has led to the fact that now Saudi oil buy less well, and in general, as if according to statistics, a situation often arises that big dividends are paid at the so-called exit when they expect either a drawdown or some kind of perturbation, but yes, this is something they raised the price for Asia, this is certainly a somewhat alarming call because you are already faced when starting this game the price increase is often either provokes some crisis or with children exists about that but does have some bias supply and demand today is about something that happens so but the fact that the prices for oil well, yes, there is a nuance here which lies in the fact that such sharp movements, they always arise when some kind of drawdown is being prepared, or at least a very strong rollback of the question os only in how temporary and or protracted it will be, but I still think that at the current moment this range, which is from 66 25 to 74, it will most likely be in the foreseeable future as, well, let's say the main weighted average price, but also this paradoxical the thing is that many American shale producers, they were held hostage to the wrong positions in hedging oil prices, they were hedging through their paws and bet on the fact that oil would be quite cheap on this basis, then not only by the current moment from this situation you were trying to this incurred losses, this was due to the fact that last year, when the collapse occurred, everyone expected that oil prices would be quite low, well, there, within $ 40 per barrel, and accordingly, everyone escaped from this as best he could, well, here's another opinion about the fact that in the oil markets, based on how oil is being produced in the United States, there are signs of weakness in demand but here there is such a significant moment hurricane season and hurricane season it can thus affect if strong hurricanes occur this year that oil production in the United States will be under significant pressure, but if you look technically at the picture of brent oil prices monthly timeframe, then we really have on the monthly timeframe, such a picture is already obtained when the growth of 2 here was very powerful and should have led to 94, it was actually cut off here the question is not about when this growth will continue, whether consolidation will continue here in this range or a corrective rollback will follow well before the start at 60 so, but passing for a week here we get a new local level that's 60 70 half which if it breaks through, then the next target of the movement to carry is very likely to be around 59 so but his girl today she did not open something very positively, that is, in fact there is all chances to bring down 60 70 half, but if you switch to hourly Ifframe here, the situation with a high degree of probability has stabilized if today we do not get further measles for a further rollback and, accordingly, break through the local level 68 82 here, then today in the first half of the day we can expect a corrective rebound from here.
we fix here, then the next impulse will move to the area here, here, 7235, so if we do not have a breakdown of this range in the first half of the day, then it is very likely that here the positions will be unloaded there will be a corrective rebound in oil again, this does not mean that the trend in oil turned around and it will start to grow until there are no such signals, we are only talking about corrective bounces, because as you yourself saw the picture and on a monthly basis, on a weekly timeframe, it just indicates that a downward movement has been initiated, which can end at 60 if key levels are now broken like this friends gave the dollar index but look now at the dollar index and the first target of the movement did not actually fall on the daily chart and here it relies either to bargain a little or a correctional pullback to ninety-two and a half levels is needed , which has already shown itself very well if the movement upward has not exhausted itself, there should be an impulse and the purpose of this impulse of movement to ninety-three point eight hundredths, respectively, if today tomorrow there is no collectible rollback with a breakdown of 92 65 for 4 hours wick there and this movement should continue a little upward in the near future if there is a breakdown, then a very fast movement of the target may occur which 92 and 3 so friends further cryptocurrency let's look ethereum here in general cover those strong movement has gone here is an attempt to reversal on the weekend it is true that an attempt to reversal will not happen if 2750 is not broken through this range than here and now, in general, due to the fact that interest in going with gold they compete a bit first pump up the crypt lately, then they take up gold when they pump up the crypt, gold is experiencing a decline, but moving to 4 hours of rigpa ethereum 2850 2860 level which, if today does not break through, we will continue to climb for the beginning of 3150 and then, accordingly, move today tomorrow at 3370 so friends further gold garden and nothing terrible was foreshadowed for gold, but here the moment is that when to start collecting stops, the process can very quickly acquire a quite volatile strong character to a weekly chart, that is, today it was already in gold it was in gold it was landing in 1680, but look at what moment it is here movement, but in fact Saparov, all the stops that were here and therefore, today, based on the daily timeframe, we will move away from a week here if we have a retention of the 1720 1740 range, then today the goal of the movement will be an attempt to descend and gain a foothold at 1764 to get out as such wonderful the movement is what the scope is, so switching to hours oh timeframe here is a classic you just put our feet together and put people down here reversal formation the purpose of this reversal formation is the same as on older timeframes to return to 1764 here the criteria for whether today during the day or before lunchtime even this will happen if there is no breakout 1720 1718 here the range is slightly different; nevertheless , certain values are clearly traced here , which, if they stand, develops an upward movement; a rebound; consolidation; further growth, so friends gave a weekly it was cloudless and it closed last week and now it has returned to the consulting range when the American market should stubbornly consolidate on x I, though in no way do not roll back, and today we see this SMP among the futures traded on the historical hayek takes new records and there is nothing bad here 0 and if we go from week to hour here we have a consulting range of 4420 4440 respectively 4420 if not all breaks through movement it will take place in this range and so friends but also china china today will rebound despite the negative news on the spread of the delta strain in asia quite well there is a movement and an attempt to return to the range above 5000 but here the situation I think will develop as follows if this is what what is connected with the delta corona virus, it will not receive much further development, then it is likely that it will gain a foothold somewhere here, or well, for a fairly long time it will be in the range of 5 thousand five thousand that bargaining if terrible news starts to come again now, the spread of the corona virus in Asia, then, accordingly, we can see return here at 4870 but well, it is that China is showing positive dynamics today, it is very likely that this will give vigor to the market, including the Russian one, so friends gave the ruble-dollar a weekly timeframe, well, look, the previous weeks closed in such a way that indicates a probable or not very large growth of the dollar against the ruble I am either in the consolidation, he told us a range of movement around the level of 73 6270 365 so based on oil we get 73 370 365 this range is now key at the moment, that is, there must be a steady break through 70 365 in order to say that everything is horrible -the horror of the dollar began to grow the ruble in the street, the dynamics is going towards the growth of the dollar, but it has not yet been said that it’s some kind of critical, so well, here’s the morning trading hours, they are of course so small, nevertheless , it predisposes the situation to the formation of a movement on seventy-three-four testing of this value and, accordingly, in the event of a breakdown, we come back here to strengthen in the area of 73 3, of course, there is reversal information on the growth of the dollar, it has formed and now there should be a portal with a bun consolidation, but in the medium-term within a week, of course, the trend goes to the growth of the dollar against the ruble the target of this week's movement is 74 74 2 rubles per dollar so friends moving on 15 minutes here there is an important point which is that if this breakdown does not take place in the next few hours and there is a movement that breaks through the level of 73 55, then in this situation we will immediately move from here and it is very likely that it will be fixed at the level of 73 6670 372 in this range this is as for the ruble-dollar, so friends, but in general, the main instruments basic news thanks for your attention successful trades
2021-08-09