RedPlanetLive -- Dr Robert Zubrin

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Welcome to Red Planet live I'm your host  Ashton Zeth I'm elated to be hosting the   Mars societies podcast and leading the  conversation about human exploration of   the universe and the future settlement of Mars  as a long time Space enthusiast I am passionate   about stem education and making Humanity an  interplanetary species thank you so much for   joining us today and supporting Red Planet live  today's episode is very special for a few reasons   first today's guest is an integral member of  the Mars Society crew and really essentially   the reason that we are all here today none other  than Mars Society president and founder Dr Zubrin   here we go oh there we go one second hi Dr Zubrin  thank you for being here today hello thanks for   inviting me good to meet you Ashton pleasure  I'm so excited to have you on the podcast today   uh this I've been looking forward to this  conversation for quite a while uh so I want   to get everybody else up to speed about really  who you are and why this is so important so in   addition to being the Mars society's fearless  leader Dr zubrin is also president of pioneer   astronautics formerly a staff engineer at Lockheed  Martin astronautics in Denver he holds a master's   degree in Aeronautics and astronautics and a PhD  in nuclear engineering from the University of   Washington Zubin has also authored several books  including a case for Mars and it's best known for   his advocacy of the manned exploration of Mars he  is the driving force behind Mars direct a proposal   intended to produce significant reductions in the  cost and complexity of such a mission disappointed   with the lack of interest from government in  Mars exploration zubrin established the Mars   Society in 1998 which works to educate the public  the media and the government on the benefits of   exploring Mars and creating a permanent human  presence on the red planet again thank you so   much for being here today I'm really excited about  this uh you're most welcome I do want to correct   one thing that he said yes which is that I founded  Pioneer astronautics and led it for 27 years but   in March of this year I sold it off and uh so  now I'm going to be free to devote more time to   the Mars society and especially to the initiative  that we're going to talk about here today I love   it that's that's amazing thank you for correcting  me I think that's integral to today's conversation   um but before we kick off the conversation station  just have a couple quick Mars Society reminders   again as we've already talked about before the  Mars Society convention is happening October   5th through 8th that's just a couple months  away at Arizona State University in Tempe now   don't fret for those that are unable to attend  in person there is a virtual option you just   need to become a mar Society member to access the  convention online regular membership is only 50   annually students interested in participating do  receive a discounted rate just need to use your   student email address to sign up and lastly  any ASU students will get free access to the   Mars Society convention there is a special link  for ASU students which can be found right there   all right so Dr Zubrin on Red Planet live  I do a segment called question of the day   it's really just meant to be an icebreaker no  right or wrong answers but I know that you're   knowledgeable on this topic so I'm very curious  to hear your answer so today's question of the   day is which Space movie do you think is most  realistic in terms of the scientific portrayal   well uh Apollo 13 uh is the most realistic uh  it is realistic uh now for talk but Apollo 13   is not science fiction if you it's history um but  uh if you want to talk about science fiction then   of things that haven't happened yet the future in  space and so forth I would say it's the Martian   um there are some technical errors in the Martian  for sure uh the the Windstorm is much too powerful   uh though even though you can have high winds on  Mars the air is very thin and you wouldn't be have   wind blowing everything down as they show um but  uh the spirit of it is is realism not fantasy uh   my my main objection to the Martian where where it  falls short uh is that while it is a can-do movie   just like Apollo 13 it shows that we can take on  the challenge of the unknown challenge of space   and that's very positive um the thing that's  missing is that the math game gaming character   is not interested in Mars he's not interested in  the question of whether there's Life on Mars uh   or the question of the human future on Mars he's  just somebody in a tough spot who needs to use his   wits and grit to figure out how to get home now  actually if people are interested I've written a   novel called First Landing it was actually written  in the late 90s published in 2001 you can get it   on Amazon but it's the crew of five that also  get into a jam and they have to use their wits to   figure out how to get out of it but the difference  is is that several people in the crew have some   understanding of the importance of Mars so I  think that could be the basis of the great Mars   movie so if you're into movies making movies out  there contact me we'll see what we can do I like   it I love it okay this is the next book that's  going on my Amazon you know cart uh I keep adding   you know books faster to my my carton starting  them before I can can finish them but I know the   next thing I'm going to put on that list so thank  you uh you know one of my favorite movies a space   movie specifically and I'd be curious to hear your  thoughts is contact uh from the 90s with Matthew   McConaughey Jody Foster do you think that that  is all even possible could we you know through   through the um the satellites get some sort of  communication from extraterrestrial life and then   interpret that data and build a ship and then be  traveling somewhere into the the far-off galaxies   um I kind of doubt it um because broadcasting  uh plans to your most advanced technology is   not adaptive Behavior Uh the um so I don't think  that aliens would be broadcasting plans on how   to build Starships um and uh I do have questions  whether they'd be broadcasting at all on the kind   of radio frequencies that we use now um the the  contact is based well the Jody Foster character   is based on Jill Tarter who's a close associate  of Frank Drake and she's still prominent at the   city Institute uh and Drake and um another fellow  came up with this idea in 1960 of using radio to   detect extraterrestrials but the frequency that  they specified uh what's known as L band which   was the state of the art for space communication  in 1960 is obsolescent now uh virtually obsolete   uh things like expanding Ka band that we use now  will probably be obsolescent in 20 years um or   I mean expanders already becoming obsolescent  and the the the the the so uh the looking for   extraterrestrials with this kind of signals is  almost in the same class as looking for them   by the uh lights of their gas lights that is uh  the the radio we use now is probably a transitory   technology uh so maybe laser communication so  well there are people already looking for that   um to look for light signals that are coherent  instead of what comes from Stars uh I personally   think that our best chance first of all I do  think we will detect extraterrestrial biospheres   um possibly within the next 10  years possibly with web or the   um I think wfirst is now called the Rubin  telescope by detecting oxygen Spectra in   extraterrestrial planets that will let you  know that there's a biosphere there because   Earth did not have free oxygen until we had plants  to put it there because you see oxygen wants to   react with hydrogen it wants to react with carbon  and once react silicon wants to react with iron   it wants to react with aluminum there's all sorts  of stuff out there that will take down free oxygen   and combine it and so you don't have free oxygen  in any quantity anywhere unless there's something   fighting against chemical equilibrium which is to  say life okay so if we detect a large amount of   free oxygen in an exoplanet we'll know there's  a biosphere there now the extraterrestrials   could have detected our biosphere using the same  technique for at least the past 500 million years   so they could have broadcasted to us in in the  Carboniferous or the Mesozoic or you know the   the the the eocene or anytime and nobody would  be answering back so they could get kind of   bored with that um now um while I think we will  detect extraterrestrial biospheres uh to detect   extraterrestrial technological civilizations I  think we'd be better off looking for high energy   activities like Interstellar travel or artificial  Suns or things of this kind that are really loud   that do not require conventions you know that is  to to decode a radio signal you have to understand   the language you have to understand the the  conventions of the transmission uh whereas to   detect um you know a Fusion Energy torch drive or  something like that um there are certain specific   things about it that would make it distinguishable  from a natural star and um or even an artificial   Singularity that is to say an artificial black  hole that would be generating energy by things   falling into it there are things like this that  we could look for that would give us a better   chance technological signatures sure okay exactly  the answer that I was looking for that that gave   me all the details that I was hoping uh in in that  exact uh question with with in regards to contact   um so earlier I mentioned that today's episode  is special for a few reasons obviously the first   being Dr Zubrin joining the second reason is that  Dr Zubrin has a very special announcement to share   with the world uh Dr Zubrin can you share the  incredible news yeah the Mars Society is uh right   now uh launching a Mars technology Institute whose  purpose will be to develop the Technologies needed   to settle Mars okay that is we have ongoing right  now uh entrepreneurial Space Race the leading   element to SpaceX but there are others that are  on their heels both here and in other countries   and as a result of this um you know the SpaceX has  already brought down the cost of space launch by a   factor of five by introducing partial reusability  if Starship is successful and I believe it will   ultimately be successful although there may be  several more failures before it's successful   um but um then it will be possible for people  to go to Mars and do exploration missions to   Mars but there are things that are needed to  settle Mars that are not being developed by   anyone and need to be if we're going to  make Humanity multi-planetary um and um   you know um in a number of places for example  the case for Mars or I have a new book coming   out next year called the new world on Mars  what can we create on the red planet and we   can talk a little bit more about that later  in the show I've made it clear what I think   the major export of Mars will be which is to  say inventions that is a Mars city-state will   be a group of technologically Adept people in  a frontier environment which challenges them   to innovate which forces them to innovate and  which they are free to innovate in radical ways   and um so that they will make lots of inventions  and those inventions will be necessary for the   success of their settlements but they can also be  licensed on Earth as IP and generate the income   that Mars will need to pay for imports okay so  that's the business model of a Mars colony export   IP okay well someone might say to me and they have  um well if you think that an inventor's Colony   uh could be a profitable Enterprise why not just  start one on earth right now uh now there's some   answers to that that is uh the Mars settlers will  be far more driven you know if someone uh they   can't just quit if they get a better offer from  Google and higher pay and sharing this or that uh   that they're going to be uh totally committed  uh by their circumstances and also frankly by   their selection if you're someone willing to  take on the risks and discomforts associated   with challenging Mars you're going to be somebody  who's serious who's not just looking for a nice   lifestyle you're looking to do something Grand  with your life okay so all that is true uh yeah   we can't do that now but we can do a Mars  inventors Colony on earth now and so that   while uh we won't have those advantages we will  have the advantages of much lower costs and   point in fact we can actually do it now so we're  doing it now um and that's what the Mars uh   technology Institute is going to be now um there's  a number of critical areas actually there's quite   a few but uh there's three that come right to  the top of the list if we talk about settling   Mars and these have to do uh with food energy and  the labor shortage that Mars will experience okay   the last one is something that Mars actually has  in common with uh early America where we had a   severe labor shortage which forced Americans to  become virtuosos in labor-saving uh uh technology   we keep gadgeters Nation to gadgeteers and that  multiplied the power of our labor and therefore   multiplied the average wage and that was one of  the major encouragements of people to come here   um and uh now if you update that to today's  technological Horizon labor-saving Machinery   continues to include labor-savering machinery  and automation but also Robotics and artificial   intelligence are all ways to to attempt to deal  with a labor shortage so the Martians are going   to be heavy Innovative in those areas another  is energy and no fossil fuels on Mars Other   than those that you can make using some other  energy source solar energy exists but it's   quite weak and unreliable wind is too thin  uh we need Advanced forms of nuclear energy   tree and while we can get by on Earth quite  nicely actually um from engineering point of   view with nuclear reactors like the pressurized  water reactors which are totally dominant in the   nuclear industry today which only use about  one percent of the energy in the uranium   um that's has discouraged the development of  breeder reactors also the extremely hostile   regulatory environment who wants to even dare  try to do something new when it's hard enough   getting a reactor license which is exactly the  same as things we've been building since 1954.   um okay but on Mars uh we're going to want to  get the full amount or 90 of the energy out of   the uranium or as well as thorium which is more  common than uranium and ultimately moves to Fusion   but then finally and this is actually The Upfront  show stopper for a Mars colony and that is food   um the now food is not a major consideration for  doing a Mars exploration Mission you can bring   your food you send four six eight people to Mars  you can bring the food and um it'll be about the   fourth biggest item on the mass list Mass manifest  or the mission that is it's not exactly in the   noise but it's really not something that that  determines the mission but you can't import the   food to support uh a hundred thousand person Mars  town let alone a million person Metropolis like   right okay I mean uh a hundred thousand people  use um a hundred thousand kilograms of food a day   um which is a hundred tons a day which is a  Starship landing on Mars every day to bring   in food so that's Unthinkable yeah I gotta grow  it well looking at growing food on Earth where   there's been tremendous progress in the 20th  century eradicated hunger from most of the world   um still take not an average farm and a developing  sector let's take Iowa cornfield which is   incredibly productive Iowa last year produced as  much corn as the whole United States did in 1947   and we were already in agricultural superpowers  then even so it's producing 12 tons of corn per   hectare per year hectare is 100 meters by  100 meter plot about two and a half acres   um the the okay that means per day uh 30 kilograms  so if you were feeding people on nothing but corn   you could feed 30 people with a hectare of of of  Iowa cornfield but of course you wouldn't want   people to eat nothing but corn you don't want to  introduce some variety of fruits vegetables meat   perhaps so maybe 20 people okay so now you add a  hundred thousand people that means 5 000 hectares   okay um 5 000 hectares uh which is uh huge uh and  uh and and that's assuming by the way that you   could grow food in natural sunlight on Mars even  though I mean you know you could grow it but that   it would be as productive as Iowa even though the  light level is half as much you could grow food I   mean normally they grow food and that's about  Martian light but it's not as productive okay   but let's just say you could 5 000 hectares but if  it goes with the light intensity it's more like 10   000 hectares and if you try to provide artificial  light at uh say even 200 watts per square meter   okay uh an average sunlight at noon in Iowa is  a thousand watts per square meter 200 watts per   square meter you're talking about uh uh at 10  gigawatts uh which is to say about a third of   the amount of power that Australia uses just to  support a town of uh a hundred thousand people   not a particularly large city uh so and and the  problem here is that while photosynthesis at the   cellular level is about four percent efficient at  the cornfield level that is if you calculate the   energy hitting a cornfield um and you so that's  the energy in and you look at the energy that the   corn itself represents coming out it's about 0.2  percent efficient okay so we're going to have to   create forms of food production that transcend  ordinary agriculture as it's currently practiced   on Earth and I believe that we can do this with  biotech I I I I believe that we can do the first   couple of steps in the food chain using uh the  first uh physical chemical means of an actual bio   tech mean to example turn say methanol which you  can make with physical chemical techniques into   protein and then you make those protein crackers  well you don't feed them to people you feed them   to tilapia or something in uh aquaponic situation  and I'm just giving you sort of an example   option yeah okay and now you've got something  that someone would actually want to eat um all   going to be developed at MTI the right so and in  fact our initial focus will be in the Biotech area   that's great I'm so excited by this and I know  that we're going to talk more about it um we're   going to get some specific questions about MTI  which leads us to our next point the third reason   today's episode is special because we have another  guest who's gonna be joining the conversation Alan   Boyle is an award-winning science writer space  reporter and contributing editor at GeekWire Allen   say that once more and a great guy and a great  guy absolutely uh Alan is The Mastermind behind   Cosmic log uh former science editor at MSNBC  and the author of the case for Pluto how a   little planet made a big difference uh here we go  welcome Alex thanks for the good word to both of   you and Ashton you forgot one little thing from  my resume that I grew up on a farm in Iowa so I'm   quite uh familiar with how the corn grows got to  be knee-high by the Fourth of July so thank you   for having me absolutely thank you so much for  being here now now I'm going to hand it over to   you Alan and I know that you have some questions  for Dr Zubrin so I'll let you take that over   okay Robert it's great to see you and and you're  a nice guy too so uh there you go we're we're the   perfect pair here uh you've talked about what  the Mars technology Institute would do I'm   interested in a few of the details of how it  would be structured I can imagine someone at   Nasa saying hey well research about Mars that's  something that that we do and investors saying   well why should as you mentioned why should I be  paying to set up this institute when there are a   lot of people working on this and and uh and uh  you know we'll we'll figure out how to do what   needs to be done by the time we get there okay um  all right those are excellent questions uh NASA is   not doing this okay uh NASA has some interest in  in situ uh uh resource utilization as they call it   um I prefer to call it local resource creation  because I don't believe there is any such thing   as a natural resource there's only natural  raw materials it's human creativity that   turns materials into resources and I could expand  on that but in any case they have some that but   it's all oriented towards the first exploration  missions so for instance one area where NASA is   interested is making for pellet on Mars for the  return trip and when I was at Pioneer we did a   lot of work for NASA and demonstrating systems  that could make for instance methane and oxygen   out of Martian CO2 and water and this has now been  demonstrated and um this of course is the basis   of both my Mars direct plan and Elon musk's plan  for sending Starships to Mars the Starship uses   methane oxygen because we can make the return  propellant on Mars but as I mentioned earlier   uh food is not really an issue for NASA in terms  of it's not as easy as planting a Potato Patch no   it's first of all okay the you can just bring the  food uh with you on a human Mission to Mars I mean   if you've got a crew of five and they're using  a kilogram of food a day and it's a thousand day   Mission that's five tons of of material that  you're bringing and and you can do better if   you bring dehydrated food and take water which  you can recycle you can cut that down by you   know a factor of four or so so now it's one ton  or somewhere between one and five depending and   that's a lot less mass than say the structure of  the spacecraft it doesn't dominate the mission   um so sure you you can bring MREs or TV  dinners or spaghetti and and the and cook okay   now the NASA does have some interest in creating  bio regenerative life support which produces a   small amount of food which would be good for  the morale of a mission to have some fresh   lettuce instead of just all preserved foods and  so forth but if we're looking at producing food   at scale uh for a settlement we need something  entirely different uh entirely different from   conventional field agriculture entirely different  from conventional Greenhouse agriculture   um and you see the the the the now if you look  at the Biotech Industry okay so they're okay   they are into biotech of course uh but they're  looking for things first and foremost with uh High   cash value such as Pharmaceuticals okay that's  very good glad Biotech Industry is making novel   Pharmaceuticals uh they are looking at boosting  the uh vitamin content of various conventional   crops things like golden rice that have vitamin  A in it but it still needs the rice padding   um the the idea of of doing this uh of really  solving the problem of producing food in bulk   with very limited acreage with two orders  of magnitude less acreage than is readily   available to a terrestrial farmer um this is it's  a different kind of Biotech and once again we're   interested in creating conventional foods and once  again on Earth even if if you're doing something   like aquaponics the base of the food chain is  photosynthesis and you can do that because you   have uh huge amounts of land or Pond or whatever  it is you've got uh relative to what the Martians   will have so in Earth they don't have the same  driving constraints okay I get it I get it and I   suppose the same is for uh Robotics and uh and  uh also for Power Nuclear Power I know you've   talked a lot about nuclear power in the past  as being the Key Energy Source on Mars uh so   NASA is doing some things around the edges and all  those things but you are optimizing this for Mars and why is it that private investors would want  to sign on for this all right now here's the thing   okay we believe that dealing with these  Technologies these are not flight Technologies   these are settlement Technologies we will be  developing Technologies in large part that   have major potential terrestrial application so  first it's cheap food all right uh and the the   um and so what we're going to do is uh license  these Technologies either by licensing the   patents or creating spin-off companies around  the various patents that are generated in the   Mars technology Institute will have some equity  in those companies return for licensing the   um intellectual property so we aim to create  essentially an Empire of spinoff companies   using our inventions and collecting revenue  from them and by so doing see we're not just   going to develop the technology we're going to  do two other things one is we're going to make   money so that the Mars technology Institute isn't  just going to be an engine of invention it's also   going to become an engine of Finance for not only  financing further research but ultimately if we're   fully successful financing the settlement of Mars  okay that's the next thing we're going to do uh   that is becoming engine of finance and then the  third thing we're going to do is in the process   of doing this we're essentially demonstrating the  business model of an action actual Mars colony   okay that is rather than go to investors and say  fundamars colony and we'll set up an inventors uh   Colony there and that will generate IP and you'll  get your money we're going to say first funded   inventors Colony on Earth and we'll show that an  inventor's Colony focusing on the issues that Mars   brings to the fore can make money and then um we  will both have money to finance the settlement of   Mars and will have proven the viability of such  a model to investors to also get involved in that   and in fact uh I I see that people are already  loving the reference to an Empire of spin-off   companies and in fact as I understand it  the structure of the Institute uh allows   for non-profit uh activities as well as for-profit  activities maybe you could talk a little bit about   the Mars technology lab right okay so the Mars  technology Institute which we uh have founded   and which is the 501c3 tax deductible you can  donate to it it's tax deductible um it funds   research okay now we're also in the process of  setting up a C Corp called the Mars technology   lab whose initial Equity will be entirely owned  by the Mars technology Institute okay however   that is an entity that is open to investment so  the idea is that if people uh and this is only   for qualified investors okay and this is a high  risk investment and it's a long-term investment   we're not interested in investors that are looking  at uh you know what's the easiest way to make the   next Buck we're interested in investors who want  to use their money to change the world and I mean   look this was musk's attitude with SpaceX and uh  Tesla okay he could have made more money easily by   setting up some more.coms and stuff like that okay  or a Facebook game that's what he once told me is  

I could have made more money by doing a Farmville  game all right we so we're not but we are looking   at people you know who who want to do that and  who um once they put the money to work in that   and understand that it's a long-term investment  but that it could potentially pay off very large   um both for Mars for Humanity and to them  uh that they can do well by doing good   um and so we're going to set up such a vehicle  there's a number of uh formal steps that need   to be taken in order to set that up but that  um is in the cards as well and then we will   set up additional C Corps around specific  technologies that are spun out I understand   that there's a QR code up on the screen right  now if if people are interested in donating uh   that QR code facilitates your donation and you  can also go to the marsociety.org website I I   suppose there will be information there as well  about donating but how much uh is going to be   required to get this thing off the ground well we  can start uh uh relatively small with a couple of   million dollars uh to begin a research program I  prefer more um the the and the idea here is that   um we're going to do research that generates IP  that may uh that generates income uh also there's   actually going to be uh about six ways that the  Mars technology Institute will assemble funds   the first is donations okay second is through  investment in the Mars technology lab the third is   through licensing income and then also dividends  from spin-off companies that we have equity in   uh and then um both the Mars technology lab and  the Mars technology Institute the first is a   for-profit corporation the other is a non-profit  Corporation there are various opportunities that   NASA and other government agencies the National  Science Foundation offers to bid on contracts   that are devoted to one or the other of these  kinds of entities um you know my own company   pioneer astronautics my former company uh we  funded for um 27 years winning over 70 NASA   contracts uh we we never needed investors we  never needed loans uh we had income from that   we generated some IP which helped in the ultimate  sale of the company uh and the uh so uh the Mars   technology lab and Mars technology Institute  will be able to engage in that game as well   um the um so in other words contract income um  from NASA and also uh from private corporations   um so there's quite a few uh uh different routes  for uh assembling the cash that is needed to uh do   the job do you have a time frame in mind like  when do you want to see the Mars technology   Institute open its doors I'd like to do it by uh  the first of the year um the um you know we are   um you know going out with this right now  telling people about it uh you should know uh   we've gotten a pretty good response so far uh  although we've only just put our our little   toe in the water uh you may know that I was  recently in Ukraine and um on the way back   I stopped off in Poland to crack out and I  gave a talk at the University there and the   and it was a talk about you know the  entrepreneurial Space Race stuff like   this basically my book the Case for space and uh  in the question period someone in the audience   asked me a question uh he said so what's next  for the Mars society and I mentioned a few   things that we're starting a marsh technology  Institute well at the end of the talk somebody   this is in Poland walks right up to the podium  and slams down 500 American dollars and says I   want to donate this to the Marshall technology  Institute and then just a couple of weeks ago   someone else who had heard about it through the  rumor mill sent us two thousand dollars um and I   I think you know because I think there's going  to be a lot of enthusiasm for this because you   know it's one thing to support the Mars Society  help us send um spread the word help us defend   you know the Mars rover mission we helped save the  Curiosity Mission which was going to be canceled   um you know things like that or and the stations  in the desert where we're researching how to   explore on Mars but none of these things in  themselves represent a path to actually putting   humans on Mars and what we're doing here the plan  here is to create not only the technology but the   finances that will enable the settlement of Mars  we don't want to have to I mean if you rely on   NASA we will never settle Mars um it's possible  that musk might launch a Mars settlement but uh   I don't have to count on that um and have you  talked with Elon Musk about this already uh   I've run the idea by him uh he he's not getting  involved at this point uh but that's fine because   um you know uh Frederick Douglass uh once said uh  he who would be free must himself Strike the Blood   okay uh and another place he said you know he was  a a black abolitionist you know uh emancipation   would not be worth half as much if it was done  by the efforts of white people alone okay uh and   uh I think that the people who want to see  Marsh settled who want to who have uh ideas   on how to create a more humanistic Society  on Mars and I think the most successful Mars   Society will be the ones that offer people  um greater chances to exercise their human   potential because those are going to be  the ones that actually attract immigrants   um the the we need to be able  to do this ourselves and not uh   be um dominated by uh massive corporations  or government a lot of potential models for   an Institute it could be a virtual Institute  here at the University of Washington there's   a virtual Institute for astrobiology but there's  also a physical Institute uh the Allen Institute   that started out just being for brain science but  now they've taken in cell science and Immunology   how do you see the Institute being structured is  there going to be a physical campus eventually yes   um that's that's our goal uh now um we may  start out um with only a a rather small lab   of our own and Outsource a lot of research  to existing uh uh the biotech companies uh   in ours we would pay them to do certain parts  of the research and they would get the work   and they could get some equity in the patent  but we would have majority equity in the pen   um the um we're also going to do something that  is extremely on but but the idea is to grow this   thing both grow the the central company itself um  and also grow its income potential through its IP   um and through Investments which  will come in as we develop IP   um the the the to the point where we eventually  have a central campus although we might continue   to do some distributed products and projects and  these could occur uh internationally by the way   not just in the United States uh but in addition  to that we're going to do something which is uh   truly unique and it builds on the heritage of the  Mars Society you know the Mars Society okay we've   built the Arctic station and the desert station  and we have the university Rover Challenge and   also the European Rover challenge which by  the way is coming up uh next week in Poland   I'm actually going to be there um um the uh and  the amazing thing about these projects is that   um we've had tens of millions of dollars worth  of work done for us without paying for it that   as we've paid for the materials okay we paid for  the materials uh to build you know for instance   the desert station but we didn't pay anybody to  build it we built it uh and there's Crews that   go out to the desert station and do refits and  there are Crews that go to the desert station   and the Arctic station to do the research that  we do there and we don't pay them they pay us   um and uh and the the Rover challenge you you  have a amazing amount of work done creating   Advanced Rovers by uh the the the university teams  themselves who nobody is paying and but also the   people that uh Kevin Sloan and and his staff who  actually operate the Rover challenge in the desert   nobody's paying them and these are um very high  quality people who if you paid them you'd have   to pay them a lot so so this is our volunteer on  you and what we're going to do um uh once again   the volume of this will depend upon our funding uh  but we are going to ask for proposals for certain   kind of work for example initially in biotech  where people say look I've got a lab or here   I'm a high school teacher and I've got a bunch  of students and we're willing to do this here's   our our experimental program we're willing to do  this we just need you to pay for the materials   and if it's a meritorious proposal and the team  is credible uh we'll fund it and uh so that we   will create an enormous volume of research work at  the cost down at least a factor of 10 below what   it costs because like you run an r d company  like 90 of the cost is salaries and benefits   um and um materials rent stuff like that is  small so and in this case we don't even have   to pay rent so um the the um so we're gonna fund  this so that this will amplify our r d effort we   will pay for the materials we will own the IP  that they generate but if you think about for   example say high school students knowing that they  are researching a biotech technology that could   enable the human settlement to Mars how exciting  that is to them and that they're doing something   real that they're part of something Grand this  is an enormously powerful stem initiative on   its own terms okay I imagine some students are  already asking where do I sign up because the   school term is going to be is is pretty much  started already is that something you plan to   roll out sooner rather than later it depends on  funding but at the latest it will be rolled out   next school year and uh where is it going to be  uh if if you didn't does that determine is that   determined by who is going to be at the funder  for example if Jeff Bezos were to say okay I'll   give you a couple of million dollars and and  let's put the institute in Kent Washington   uh how do you determine where you would have a  physical campus well that would certainly be a talk um but the but actually the Pacific Northwest  is one of our favorite areas to put this another   is is perhaps here in Colorado uh those are are  the two top of the list Pacific Northwest would   be excellent at very high quality of life  and while costs are very large in Seattle   and Bellevue if you go a little bit further  out uh to you know Everett or Kent or places   like that the cost can become reasonable and  not too different from uh American norms and   um and you've got a tremendously  intellectual population you've got   the University of Washington which is a tremendous  University uh that's actually where I got my PhD   um and um very strong in well biotech in Aerospace  and in artificial intelligence yes and there's   um of course in the Seattle area there's a lot  of money generated by people who either graduated   from UW or who simply migrated to the area uh  there's been Aerospace there for a long time   including um uh uh well initially Boeing of course  but more recently blue and and whenever you have   large companies like Boeing and blue you always  get large numbers of people who work there for   a few years and then Branch off and start their  own small businesses that's for instance I'm an   example of that Pioneer and many other people who  once worked at Lockheed Martin started a small   aerospace companies here so there's a lot of that  in Seattle there of course is software money and   internet money and this kind of thing of course  the most famous being Microsoft but many others   um software and internet related information  technology companies which are now branching   into artificial intelligence and virtual reality  and all these sorts of things and then yes there's   a lot of Biotech there so Pacific Northwest uh  is is one of our uh uh uh um is perhaps the top   of the list and um Colorado is an alternative  costs here are lower um and um there's a you   know we have some very strong universities here  as well um but those two uh lead the selection um there are other space institutes I I think  one of the one of our people in the audience   has mentioned the Space Studies Institute uh  there's the Lunar and Planetary Institute uh   is there a possibility of partnering  with these or is this something that   you really want to have as your own  thing well there's certainly possible Aerospace people team with each other all the time  uh and if it makes sense to team if uh if there's   a certain part of the process that requires  elaborate facilities and someone already has them   um and furthermore if they're um the kind  of people that we want to work with then   sure we team up with them and uh so uh teaming  arrangements are possible for both self-funded   research projects and and Equity could  be divided in various ways depending upon   who's bringing what to the table uh also  teaming on proposals to NASA for example   um the uh that well that's done all the time as  you know if you look at uh various uh teams that   bid on things like the human Landing system  or other stuff right um it's always teams now   uh you mentioned NASA have you talked with anyone  at Nasa about this or are they hearing about this   for the first time along with everybody else and  also uh I assume that you have some advisors like   a board of scientific advisors maybe you could  talk about the sorts of people who have signed   on to this perhaps that other folks would  recognize as people in the space community   okay well uh we have uh some people who um  just recently retired from NASA from uh uh   um two from NASA Ames one is Bill Clancy is  very strong in uh artificial intelligence uh   very strong and uh also uh Larry Lemke who's  a very original thinker from NASA Ames and uh   Tony Muscatello uh I was a chemical engineer uh  and nuclear engineer from Kennedy Space Center   um so there's some of them we've got people  that are very strong in the biotech area   um Steve Benner who is actually the first person  to synthesize that Janine is on our Board of   advisors uh Shannon Nangle who's a brilliant  uh young woman who's founded a biotech company   of her own called Circe she's advising us um we  have um other people who are into aquaponics um   because that could be in other words that process  might involve physical chemical step uh something   that is clearly biotech as it's currently defined  and then things that are sort of unconventional   agriculture uh you know you might combine all  three of those to create an end-to-end process   um we have nuclear people um uh Tom please  who goes way back to the first breeder reactor   efforts in the United States in Idaho and he was  now involved in the thorium uh reactor company   uh David Poston who uh created the killer  power initiative is on our Board of advisors   um the um we also have people with a very strong  business backgrounds um Eric Bethke who uh created   this game Millions on Mars and Starfleet games  and many other internet games that he's he's   also a person with well a knows a lot about  programming and B knows a lot about business   um and uh other people that are very sharp  in the business world so we have people who   have uh strengths in in those areas you've  mentioned some of the other things that this   Mars Society has done over the years including  the challenges and the research stations in Utah   and Canadian Arctic how important is this  to you is this kind of the big bet for your   organization is the Mars Society going to rise  or fall depending on how this campaign goes   well the Mars Society uh has existed without this  for a quarter century and could continue to exist   at its current level and doing a lot of good uh  you know I mean we we've been spreading the word   I mean SpaceX would not exist if there wasn't a  Mars Society because uh we helped it wasn't just   us that's for sure but we helped recruit him to  making uh space his calling making humans to Mars   his calling and many other people um not only at  SpaceX but throughout the entrepreneurial space   industry and and uh old-fashioned space industry  uh have been rallied to want to make this their   life's work by by our Outreach um you know uh the  we as I mentioned we've defended a number of key   missions that would have been canceled if not for  us and those include Mars Express in Europe uh it   include uh curiosity uh here um and um which the  NASA science administrator at the time wanted to   cancel because it was overrunning its budget um  and we came out very strongly that Hubble actually   um the uh we took a stand for Hubble uh and it  was very useful because the only other people that   were defending Hubble were the Hubble scientists  and people said well that's them seeking their   self-interest we you know um you know  O'Keefe wanted to kill Hubble and said   what are you worried about Hubble we're going  to the Moon in Mars and I said if if you're   afraid to send a rescue mission to Hubble  nobody's going to the Moon Mars okay and   um so we came out strong and don't desert Hubble  and I'm proud to say we helped run O'Keefe out of   his job and got someone in there Mike Griffin who  um was prepared to save Hubble and did uh the the   um and then there's the stations so we could do  all this kind of stuff but uh and and regardless   of the fate of this initiative we are going to  continue to do all these sorts of activities that   we have become known for but I want to up the gain  here I want to get people to Mars and um the you   know I I have to say um look I was born in 1952.  okay and my father and all my uncles served in the   war and um you know they came back and they had  set the world right okay we not only had won the   war we had won the peace we give them the Germans  the Japanese better governments than they had   ever created for themselves we created a better  world and then and and the US government did that   and um the the American people together with the  government did that and then they did other things   they did the interstate highway system they did  Atoms for Peace they did Apollo and this is what   I saw growing up and that was the government that  I knew and so when I wrote the case for Mars I   figured look what we have here is an aberration  we've had you know this happened with Nixon and   this happened with Carter and this with this one  and that when that one but it we can get this   thing straightened out and we can have humans  to Mars because look here's the plan if we had   the kind of determination that we had in Apollo  could have humans on Mars in 10 years okay and   but it it didn't come together we we've had a  governmental senility and now we have governmental   chaos and the um I mean it's incredible what is  going on right now with the government and and and   the toxic nature of the political discourse that  would make any great project extremely difficult   for the government uh to uh manage so okay we've  had okay something else let's come in which has   been very productive say well in view of the  fact that the government hasn't been it's no   longer credible as as the people that could open  up Mars we've had this entrepreneurial uh thing   going on but you know uh and and what musk has  done is uh extremely impressive he's shown that   it's possible for a well-led entrepreneurial  team to do things that previously thought that   only the government's a superpowers could do  and not only that do it in one third at the   time at one tenth the cost and even do things  that they had deemed impossible altogether   but he's also showing that it's possible for  such entrepreneurs to become diverted in their   priorities and uh so I don't have to count on  uh the the space entrepreneurs to do with for   him I I am willing to actually count upon the  space entrepreneurs to create ever cheaper space   flight Technologies because The Virtuous cycle  has been Unleashed by spacex's accomplishments   cheaper space launch means more launches means  launches get even cheaper and the components   of spacecraft become cheaper and the designers of  spacecraft uh can become less conservative because   the launch is cheaper all this is good stuff so  we're going to have a lot more space activity but   to actually get humans on Mars takes a vision that  is sustained and that goes beyond how do we make   the most profit doing you know an orbital research  lab I think has gone to the orbital research   Labs things like this um are going to become a  credible business plans in the very near future   um in fact we're seeing several private  space stations uh right right okay but the   but humans to Mars takes a leap beyond that  and so basically if this is going to happen   we have to create an institution that is dedicated  to this purpose and which can acquire the means to   execute this purpose uh and that's the purpose  of the Mars technology Institute so so I have   to turn things back over to Ashton but I had  one last question uh I know you've been to   Ukraine you've been to Poland I follow you on  social media and so you're very aware of what   the political situation is and and the climate  Challenge and and you've spoken up quite a bit   uh for using nuclear power as part of that mix  it's got to be part of the solution there are a   lot of challenges facing this world so why would  someone spend you know a significant amount of   money on Mars research rather than fixing the  problems that we see here on Earth okay that's   an excellent question it's because of this that  the while I do believe that global warming is real   I do not believe it's the greatest threat facing  Humanity today not by a long shot uh uh I do not   believe that resource depletion is real there  are people that believe that there are people   that believe overpopulation is realize I do  not agree with that um resources are a function   of technology and the more people the more  inventors and that's why we actually have much   more resources per person than we did a hundred  years ago let alone a thousand years ago uh and   but there is something that threatens  Humanity um severely and that is bad ideas   and in particular one bad idea uh it's the same  bad idea that caused the catastrophes of the 20th   centuries and it's threatening us now and this  idea came in a variety of forms but it boils   down to is there isn't enough for everyone and  so we need to fight it out with them in order to   get what there is or at least to protect what we  have from them who they're coming for it okay and   and of course this idea that there that we aren't  a zero-sum world is promoted by tyrants because   the ultimate justification for tyranny is  the putative necessity for war that there   has to be Central directive leadership this is the  justification of the Putin crowd um the the it was   the justification for Hitler in his day as well  and the various militarists in Japan and and what   have you um and now as I said um I don't believe  that the resources of Earth are limited but they   seem to be okay to try to prove to someone  that the resources of the Earth are Unlimited   it's like trying to prove to a mathematically  illiterate person that uh a one-inch line segment   can have an infinite number of points in it it  seems counter-intuitive no it's one inch long   it doesn't have an infinite number of points  in it okay on the other hand if you can show   a line that extends infinitely in both directions  anyone could perceive that that has uh infinite   number of points in it okay and so similarly if  we can show that it's this vision of the future   that people have if people can understand that  by working together we cannot open the planets   there's no point killing each other over provinces  okay and so if if you want to save Humanity this   is the thing to do to make it clear that we have  available to us this unlimited future and it's   this unlimited future that undermines all those  whose rule depends upon the putative necessity   for war okay you know Hitler he said this idea of  Perpetual Prosperity through scientific invention   he said as a Jewish plot to undermine people's  belief in the necessity for war now it's not   a Jewish plot but it does undermine people's  belief in the necessity for war and I believe   that we have to undermine people's belief in the  necessity for War and the the greatest way we can   do it is by showing that there's an infinite  future that is available to us wow purple excellent well I think this was a very informative  thank you Alan so much for hopping in and helping   with this conversation today we got some great  information about MTI I'm really excited for that   so we're going to let Alan go and we're gonna  shift gears and start to take some audience   questions there we go yeah oh spur baby good  to see you Robert all right good seeing you   Alan [Music] all right so I know we've got a ton  of questions from audience members so let's kick   it off uh the first question that I have for you  Dr zubrin is you've been interested in science   and space exploration since you were a young  student at what point did the idea of humans to   Mars become one of your primary goals um I would  say in the 60s uh I was five when Sputnik flew   uh and it's actually the first major world event  that I can remember in terms of my own personal   experience I can remember Sputnik I remember  you could look up you could see it uh and the   now while the adults may have been uh  alarmed twice but Nick I was delighted   um and because I was an early reader and  I was already reading science fiction and   what's it said to me it was these stories about  space travel were going to be true and I wanted   to be part of it now it took a little longer  for me to have a broader understanding of what   is real in space and what isn't but by the early  60s I had read enough um of young adult science   books I mean real science books but for people  my age uh to know Mars was the interesting place   that Mars was the place that was most likely  to have life and it was the place that was the   most promising to sin so it was from that point  on I'd say about the time I was 10 or so uh and   you know in the 60s we're going to be on the Moon  by 1970 and Mars by 1980 or to be more exact 1981.   um and and you know Saturn by 1990 in Alpha  Centauri by the year 2000 I wanted to be part   of that and that's why I learned all the science  I could um now of course the only part of that   program that was actually realized was we did  make it to the Moon by 1970 right but then   Nixon aborted the thing uh Nixon aborted NASA's  plans to have humans on Mars by 1981. if they   hadn't okay then the first children born on Mar  probably would be graduating high school on Mars   right about now but um but you know here's the  thing even though what Nixon did was an amazingly   stupid decision is kind of like Ferdinand and  Isabella telling Columbus after he discovered   the new world uh get lost we're not interested  um the the okay if he hadn't made that mistake   it would have been made by Carter or the one  after that or the one after that in other words   uh Apollo could have gone further it could have  gone all the way to Mars okay had it not been   aborted but the idea the settlement of space being  supported by this kind of determination uh sooner   or later that was going to fail and um and I have  to think that while this entrepreneurial space   revolution has been uh created in significant  part by people inspired by the vision of Mars   I don't think by itself it can be counted  on to get us to Mars it can be counted on   to create a lot of useful technology to goes to  Marshall I think ultimately it's the idea itself   that you know Victor Hugo said nothing could  stop an idea whose time has come and that is   provided that the idea has Messengers that can  recruit to its banners that people prepared to   make it prevail and um and that's what we're doing  I mean this is the idea that is moving me uh it's   the idea that moves the Mars society and I think  that if we create this Mars technology Institute   um the word can be made flesh absolutely yeah  it moves me and all of our listeners and all   the marsh Society members and everybody that's  that's tuning in today uh great answer here uh   another question is with recent findings we  can sustain life on the Moon making oxygen   does the same prove true for Mars well  uh you can make oxygen on the moon uh   in many places on the moon out of uh breaking up  iron oxide the the technology to do that exists   it's a somewhat difficult process but it's it's  doable for sure and then of course at the South   Pole there may be water which is easier to get  oxygen out of on Mars it's still easier because   there's plenty of water on Mars uh there are  glaciers on Mars as far south as 38 North which   is the latitude of San Francisco on Earth glaciers  that are pure water ice and they have as much   water in them as the great lakes and then there's  a carbon dioxide atmosphere and either carbon   dioxide or water or both can you can get oxygen  out of either by physical chemical means or of   course biotechnology that's how plants make oxygen  um the so that can be done so and you know my Mars   mission plans are based on the idea of doing  such things in particular to make the returned   repellent which has enormous leverage for enabling  the Mars mission but if we're going to settle Mars   we need to go beyond making propellant uh we're  gonna have to make all the different kinds of   things that people need or a large number of them  and um and the top of the list is food and and and   here's one other thing by the way I didn't mention  this with Alan by taking on the challenge of cheap   mass-produced food okay we're going to completely  refute the Canard that space people don't care   about the needs of the poor on Earth okay we're  gonna flush that down the toilet bowl to history   we're going to prove that we can do more good  for Earth than all these other people who are   always criticizing us sure sure uh speaking of  maybe some criticisms here uh do you believe   Artemis will be able to send the first man to the  Moon by 2025 is that realistic or wishful thinking I think it could be done but it's not going  to be done uh I don't think that Artemis is   being approached with the kind of seriousness and  resolution required to do that uh you know I mean   look Trump started Artemis in 2017. now here we  are six years later you know six years uh after  

Kennedy launched Apollo's 1967 the Saturn V had  flown and every all the vehicles were very far in   development you know I have friends in Houston and  uh they go by Johnson Space Center frequentl

2023-09-15

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