Palantir in September $60 Price Targetor 94% Burry Crash? [PLTR Stock Deep Dive]

staring the fact from the statistics and what is actually true we're going to look at Palace Theatre technical analysis we look at the chat see what they tell us and we will also look at some real evaluation metrics for the market barrels for palliative specifically and then we are going to look at our discounted cash flow model for palantirand if you haven't downloaded already I have prepared just for you a free pallet discounted cash flow model with a full explanation video is so download this is completely free on feed expensive palantir that will ask you to sign up just this name email you hit the download button to get it straight away so I'll check that would be interesting now let's get straight into it as always this is not everything then you know this one is it will crash and I have proof or you know the Black Swan crash headlines in many ways shopping market crash The Big Short facts on a knife-edge I mean just reading that makes me makes me feel slightly itchy it said a nonsense and and noticed YouTubers is it's not just you know the likes of me that are guilty of this but it's also mainstream Media CNBC says according to see if ra the S&P 500 has been positive just 45% of the time and September going back to World War II and the average .569 than months is the worst of all months so on average it's gone down 0.6% and that's the great big crash apparently it's this time for stocks not exactly 94% down is a and the fact that it's only been positive 45% means almost half right it's just shy of half which would be whatever the other month is so this it is thinks I don't lie it's a load of chiba and I looked at this job for example the SMP monthly Returns adjust for the last couple of years and I did a quick search for September to September 2020 yes we were down 3.9% September

2019 we were up 1.7% in September 2018 we were up 0.4% September 2017 we were up 1.93% so it's a load of nonsense basically but what does it mean for palantirand panacea stock specifically what do the numbers tell us that had a quick look at the actual palantir chat here and I'm looking at this on a weekly basis and if you follow me usually and watch me usually normal You See Me on de chats because the day chart essentially predicts and it is all based on statistical models is not reading he leaves it predict what happens in the next couple of days so if you look at the week Chad and can you predict would happen to the next couple of weeks so nice to take back a step look at the sort of macro picture here I like to whip Mark Wright been economist peace I can't check there is worth it just means bigger micro smaller macro bigger it's a silly word now this is basically what's been going on here and this little corridor that I put in here is the start of the day chat this basically shows how we have left and if I can put another courier him and have it on the previous recovery down here and give us a different colour so the green corridor was pretty the pre earnings curried basically we sort of tumbling around the 21 22 23 earnings shortest app two 2425 plus and now we are very nicely and come to be sitting at of twenty-five $26 26/20 and recording and I do think we are going to stay in that range I think 25 is our new basepoint now there is something that I see that isn't quite as wonderful so this appears to trajectory up and then this time here is volume now what happens when your when you're really goes this Direction it is positive and your volume keeps declining this week on week well normally I would say the rally is fizzling out we are picking at what I would say we are picking now there is a bit of a caveat to this one because we are August August weeks and what happens in August the Worlds on holiday and if you have worked in finance you know they're basically no deals and in August everyone is in our instant repair or the Bahamas or or somewhere and and enjoying themselves and had nothing really happens and that's why the home Market volume is really low in every show you back this is qqq volume in the last 3-weeks down here so this is a very similar storage what was Simon palantirso one thing I always like to do is compare what's happening to a stock to this of wider index Kiki being the most appropriate here and you can see it's not actually talented doing this is just the market overall so I'm not that worried about what I would normally be worried about so if there is one worry eliminated so what have we got well actually we are looking at a very healthy trajectory here we can look at a couple of indicators it's Lucas that with momentum and momentum what I always do is put a line in here at the sort of is 09 I actually got a great bang on zero and always never happens if you drive yourself on tradingview very hard to get them in 10 so I deserve a medal for at least a like that I would appreciate it and what you can see is momentum going just a little bit self but very very moderately and we've seen that here in in two weeks ago as well but we're not moving fine we're not moving fast and that's fine we just refining our feature so that doesn't concern me all that much are not a rapid move then let's look at an RSI and RSI works similarly to most of momentum indicators and that is you wouldn't two lines essentially you putting again at line and the halfway Mark of this corridor and 50 that's the halfway Mark and then you look at where our online courses my eyebrows horizontal line of the bicycle from Below to above the loudest basically on the 2nd of August and that was very good call and that's the week of the 2nd of August because I was just turning the nextsense it's the end of that period so when we got the earnings numbers everything went ballistic and we've all been happier ever since so I'm actually looking very good I would put in one strong resistance point which is 2760 or thereabouts why that's the high from our last rally in the end of June so that one is going to be a bit harder to break through it so we'll see whether that caps as in in cm September shall we move onto the next step here so we look at the TA by the way if you want to understand technical analysis pl incredibly useful for trading for finding entry positions and just also for sleeping better and being camera but what's going to happen check out my master stocks course to teach you lots of technical analysis in addition to fundamental analysis had to reach financial statement of how you can tell you stop so you can make your discounted cash flow model and much much more and that coupon Wells expires on Sunday the 5th so take advantage of it and check it out it is a completely risk-free purchase of course now let's go a little bit lower but there's one health morning actually I wanted to show you guys on my comments you see these rather cleverly written welsummer more clever than others sort of replies that look like they are from me this sort of him Felix and friends thanks for the comments don't forget to hit the subscribe up that sort of thing I might say that I would say that comment but then it got a phone number or it's got a WhatsApp number if these are scam but so don't engage with them they do it quite nicely they use my my fan mail that often use my my name if you want to know whether it's a fake or not click on the username and then you have to take you to an account with 0 followers so that is a me now I'm going to look at to you we can look at where we are in terms of valuations time to panic is it time to dig that hole stock up on you know sardines or you know vegan sardines in my case and an ammunition and Barry the gold in the backyard I don't think so think so are you why I don't think so and you can make your own conclusions so this lovely charter is the PE ratio search the price over / earning so take the the share price of the NASDAQ 100 and divided over the earnings of all the 100 stocks in the and this is a 5-year chart for no particular reason and you can see where at the moment at 29365 you go back a little bit of Prix 2018 crash here we were in the 50s were actually at 118 or so at the top of the market here in 2017 so from that point of view that loves not in bubble territory right and it's not even particularly expensive it's actually cheaper than it was in 2019 when we were at side of I would say that metric about 33 or so in in 2019 so that makes you just think well that's nice and how good that happened what is a cheaper another stock markets done really well the last year just turning turning I've been really really good American companies that they just said companies are making a lot of money now here is another way of looking at it in this is basically what is Harry dent the end of the world is coming every week to a stock market near you would show you and that's the price to free cash flow chat and there you can see there is a definite very very substantial increase in price Andover free cash flow know what is free cash flow is essentially the free cash that a company generates that then can then use to pay the Debt pay dividends or reinvest or do something with the best companies in the world have great big free cash flow in if you follow me for a bit you know that I'm a big fan of free cash flow and most of what I understand has prefix Catholic what doesn't have great big free cash flow very young growth companies it has not done a position to do that who does have free cash flow just had last week palantirdo that just getting into that so I would put a bit of a warning here is that you know I did I would say the majority of a portfolio excuse my horrible writing should have positive free cash flow that doesn't mean every single stock because then you would never invest in any kind of innovation or anything relatively new but I would just have a portfolio that is entirely free cash flow negative I wouldn't advise that I would put at least half my money probably a little bit more than that into stocks I do have three cats now talented just got there so that's that's a positive for palantirlet's take them beyond the market and look a little bit and actual palantirnumber so this is now all these are plenty of shots this is inside ownership percentage is always lamenting Alex carbs cell cells or inside the cells but what we are seeing is is a nice trajectory actually we've gone from virtually zero Insider ownership to know about 1.2% but it is heading in the right direction why is that happening when Insider selling so much because they're selling its entry 2:30 shares that are getting older share options that are converging they're keeping the other house so he's going to creep up short interest is that something to worry about no not really that is also moving down and a nice Direction so that's a nice indicator weather the market especially institutions thing at the end is near and you should start digging so short interest doesn't have you didn't quite yet top fan holder someone to throw that out as you can see the big institutions that are that are in here and the the biggest ones this is in order of weight of fund so it's a bit of a strange order the really want to look at the big once a year and that is ARK Arcade add wiw p&w are they are really the the ones with serious money in here and that's good that's good that's hopefully when I'm going to keep going up over time now how about some fundamental numbers here from palantir should we be worried well again let's look at the balance sheet numbers and and you like my numbers because that's what the best things about the headlines if I've numbers and what have we got well we have total acids the purple number here are improving social assets are going up total liabilities which is the Orange number here this one are going down and therefore inevitably shareholder equity is going up so that's a good thing that is precisely what you want to see over the last couple of quarters so positive right again that would warrant a higher stock valuation Revenue and get this lovely quarterly chart I mean you know couldn't get any better than that it is just heading into positivity in a we should be getting 400 million per quarter in the next one and then heading towards 5 and a million revenue per quarter which is very good at the same time margins are improving and then look at this cash and short-term Investments they have no debt palantir has no debt so it isn't that high risk investment and I don't people make it out to be because the downside is protected by the fact that they're sitting on a nice big cash or in near cash pile hear some gold at about 2.4 billion or so healthy number especially given that this is not a capital intensive business I mean what do they have to buy a bunch of laptops basically like they don't really have to buy any machinery your factories offices or anything like that so what do I conclude from all of us from all of these lovely numbers that we've gone through I don't see a massive market overvaluation I think the market isn't cheap but it also is an asset valued we have a very very cautious said you are still pretty eating money the employment numbers out just were bad and that just pushes catering back a little bit more and even when it comes tapering more common increments I don't think they're going to trust touch interest rates until the earliest the 20-22 because the real economy isn't doing all that well and that's really obvious from the employment numbers you might say that's because there is a shortage of Labour but that would still hamper or an unwilling is of Labour perhaps that would still hamper economic growth in the real world and there is this great big gap in employment and other people are not working and the first one to do something about that so let's then jump over to the discounted cash flow model in the one I'm looking at here is on my patreon you can get there then you click on talentia you see all the posts and apparently related lots of things or something and there's lots of course also gives you access to a beautiful discord channels to take it out the way to get in there is the link below the patreon link it does cost you 50 sensor data does and why do that amount not because I need the 50 Cent's but I want to make sure everybody is on there is invested and his reading and sharing and discussing and that's exactly the lovely community that we have so we want to keep it nice and meeting and it is a marvelous community to check it out you can just check it out the one month it's literally like I'm a very expensive cup of coffee and this is the discounted cash flow model that I work on the one I actually give you here in the sign up link friends Felix friends or talk / p-lcr is a little bit simple and it's a little bit more visual because I want to ease you into some spreadsheet I want to scare you off what I've done here is very simple really there's two rows that really matter here the one is gross revenue growth and then the second is essentially a bit gross so that's a profitability measure earnings before interest tax depreciation and amortization and I've got in here for this year and the next two years 45% growth in revenue and that is more than others think is Anna starstruck with 40% number that Alex Cobb keeps throwing out cos he's basically said in December last year will grow at least by 30% year-on-year in the next couple of years and people have forgotten the at least Factor and all the financial models that I see from from investment banks always you 30% forever and I think that's massively massively understating we are seeing very nice 40% plus growth and I do think we're going to get there and I actually think the Grove get easier because just look at the government contract so we just got the extensions you know they are increasing them year on here by the 40% already so that's without acquiring a single new customer the gross is just comes from from the internal customers so that's basically these are the numbers and again this is of course sure if you want the patreon you can you can metal that is to say if you change that 45 to say 50 and it would give you an extra $2 a there's a direct link between these numbers and the calculation and I do then fizzle out the growth towards 20/32 about 18% at the end of the period why it becomes harder to grow when you get to sort of 19 billion revenue it just becomes harder to generate in the UK with 18% you still going to have to generate almost 2 billion and extra revenue year and it just becomes harder and harder to do that it's not impossible but you'll find it for example at 45% growth rate and that is pretty impossible if you're going to have to generate so like eight or nine billion in extra revenue additional revenue it's pretty hard to do that's why these numbers come down over time but it has me still at actually feel that are euro 71 that you could take this down a little bit if you were more bearish on this is because I've previously done so my sort of giving the current market sentiment I am aiming more 460 and then then 71 but either is fine the revenue multiple by the way I use Siri is Microsoft's so this is not some crazy pie in the Sky growth stock multiple that I'm applying here and apply Microsoft 11 times revenue multiple which I think is there is a reasonable one but you know you might will disagree with me on that if you do let me know that are below in the comments so that's my my my parents on this is I think palantir as a good chance to double in value is it going to do that in a week no it's not going to do it in September no definitely not I put money on that bed it is going to happen in my view I think it could happen in 12 months maybe 15 to 18 months what we have to achieve is that every quarter that we're getting is about 45% hiya and revenue year-on-year and with that automatically manages will improve and if we keep doing that because you've done in the last quarter but you know Morgan Stanley Reddit and listen to it and then they wrote a snotty research know basically saying yeah once but will they be able to do it again we doubt it so you have to prove the Wall Street bears wrong and the so-called smart Money wrong and by the only way to do that is to give them data after data after data so another three Four Quarters could substantially get us in that direction so that's my Outlook basically I am British and palantirif you are not let me know and and I get ready guys remember to check out of the Costa and if you really want understand out of value stocks out of Ali the market I don't understand which economic numbers matter which do not to be able to look through all the fun and all the noise that the media put out every single day to get eyeballs on the articles and their news channels it's a great place to be and that's why I wake up every morning with a smile I don't care whether the market up or down because I know that the stocks I'm invested in at doing their thing and then they will go towards the target that I have for them and it makes me very calm and very comfortable very happy as an investor so if you are feeling a little he sometimes so that your investments and you're frustrated if that what you're investing in you want to learn more about how you can pick good stocks and not just the one stop the market is there for a reason it has access to a great number of marvellous companies but actually it's a very small percentage of the whole save the whole scp-500 they probably when great companies and maybe 30 years stretch and the rest is a load of averageness we just we don't want to put out money and so check out the master stocks post below there is a 29% coupon expires by the 5th that Sunday this week labour day or something in the USSR think it might be based on guys a little bit about me if you haven't watched me before I used to be a cup of lawyer I apologise for thank you for the River I started economics and low and I for the last 1015 years I've been investing and entrepreneur if that is a verb so check it out and I would love to see you on the inside of the programmes

2021-09-04 16:16

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