Layoffs SURVIVAL GUIDE - 10 million coders LOSE JOBS.

Layoffs SURVIVAL GUIDE - 10 million coders LOSE JOBS.

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And so my point is that programming has changed  in the way that is probably less valuable. On   the other hand, I will tell you this. Because  of artificial intelligence, we have closed the   technology divide of humanity. Today, about  10 million people are gainfully employed  

because they know how to program computers. Which  leaves the other 8 billion behind. That s not   true in the future. We all can program  computers. Does that make sense? Yes,   I m afraid, it does. For those few who are not  yet familiar with this face, this is Jensen Huang,   the founder and CEO of NVIDIA, the company has  invented the revolutionary chips, that currently   drives more or less all modern AI models on the  surface of this planet. His company, NVIDIA, has   grown from a tiny startup to more than 2 trillion  dollars in market capitalisation. I have never  

seen anything like it. And this is why you see  NVIDIA s market cap being so gigantic. Because   they currently have the best neural chips. I  mean Did NVIDIA s market cap exceed Canadian GDP,   or something It s quite high Yes, you heard it  right. Worth more than Canada. Jensen Huang is   one of the deepest AI visionaries of our time. And  as we all have just heard, according to him, more   than 10 million coders soon will have to find not  just a new job, but a new profession. But It's  

not just Jensen Huang. Listen to what AWS's  VP of Technology has to say. The programming   language of the next decade is not going to  be traditional way we ve been writing code. It   just going to be a natural language. It just going  to be describe what you want the system to do, and   it will interpret it automatically. And that is  incredibly democratising And exciting opportunity   to reinvent every product and the process. In the  meantime, BigTech keep laying off people. Well,   they try not to say that openly, in public. We can  understand them who wants to be called a public  

enemy responsible for mass layoffs. Nobody wants  to be grilled by the politicians on the Hill.    So, they have to encrypt their messages.   In particularly with this moment in AI,   the opportunities we have ahead of us are immense.  But it need a real focus on our mission. There   have been multiple rounds of layoffs. Why take  this approach? Why not cut once and cut deep? We  

are reallocating people to our highest priorities.  This is where you are simplifying teams. Removing   focus on new areas. Removing layers, so you can  improve velocity.That s why we are taking the   time to do it correctly. You know, we coders, are  not best people-readers. This is definitely not   our strength. But you don t have to be a people  reader to see facial expressions, the emotions  

on these faces. You don t even have to listen  to what the Google CEO says. But if you want to   know what is my translation of this politically  correct mambo-jumbo jargon into plain English?   That would be a simple message: More layoffs are  coming. At first, BigTech explained layoffs by   changes in tax regulations. Then - by overhiring  during the COVID pandemic. Then - they said that  

only sales and hr were affected. Then - that just  junior coders were let go. For more than a year,   they kept us in the dark, keeping laying off  people while inventing new excuses. Now, they   don t bother explaining layoffs anymore. They just  do them. Here are just some most notable mass  

layoff in tech that were publicly announced.   All this time, since the layoffs started in 2023,   they acted as if they knew something. Something  big. Something that we didn't know. What was   that? What was that big thing they knew but we  didn't? What is going on? I am going to say   something that is going to sound completely  opposite of what people feel. You probably   recall over the course of the last ten, fifteen  years, almost everybody who sit on the stage like   this tell you: This is vital your children learn  computer science. Everybody should learn how to   program. Give me a break. Anybody who can through  coal into a furnace can learn how to program, for  

God s sake. And in fact, it is almost exactly  the opposite. It is our job to create computer   technology, such that nobody has to program. And  now the programming language is human. Everybody   in the world is now a programmer. And so we  imagined that this is a completely new way of   writing software. The short answer is back then,  in 2023, they have learned that very soon they won  

t need human coders to write software anymore.   In our previous video we have shown how this works   in practice on a hypothetical example of a snake  game that is generated not by a programmable code,   but by AI directly, as a video stream. That video  got more than 1500 comments. And one of the most   common comments was: What are we supposed to do  now? This survival guide is a result of work   of half a dozen volunteers with expertise ranging  from webdev, AI/ML and to database management and   distributed programming. We ve been working on it  almost two months, and I would like to thank the  

experts, who contributed time and knowledge to  help our common cause. For those of you who   are first time here, on the Scripter channel.  I will spend a minute explaining who I am.    My personal path to AI was non-linear. With a  background in mathematics and economics, I started   as a behavioural economist, running research  on how our brains, our organic neural networks,   make decisions. That was research on how to  predict and influence human behaviour. Especially   in groups. After graduating from Columbia  university in New York, I went to China as a   Forbes columnist where I authored 25+ articles  for Forbes and also ran research on behavioural   patterns of ultra-concentrated groups. There,  in China, I met Jack Ma, the founder of Alibaba  

and another leading tech visionary, who told me  one simple thing - AI is future. This is how then,   9 years ago, I got a head start and  started creating AI systems that predict,   influence people behaviour. And since then I  ve designed and developed those AI behavioural   systems for some of the largest and best known  companies in the world. I also led an AI   research team and launched a startup that invented  a computer vision technology that monitored and   managed nurses in hospitals. That technology  has received an Australian National Award for   solving the problem of pressure ulcers, one of  the biggest problems in healthcare.    When we were building this survival guide,  our objective was to navigate the huge   uncertainty we re all facing today. To find a  path through the AI jihad to survival, safety,  

and, hopefully, success. While working on  the guide, we used a few key principles. First,   we wanted to identify and diagnose the problem.  It is like getting a diagnosis before starting a   treatment. This is why the first half of the  guide is about how we got to where we are.    Here s out little map. First, we will talk about  how the value, the pizza, is distributed between  

providers of labour and capital. And this is  important, because we, coders and tech people, we   are labour providers. We will dive into the  beginnings of Internet web development and the web   gold rush. This should give us an understanding  of why we are being paid so much. Then,   we will take a look at what triggered  the AI jihad and the great consolidation,   and how that led to the invention of transformers  that very AI architecture that is behind ChatGPT   and that exactly what Jensen Huang is referring  to when he says that coding is no longer a human   profession. Then we will talk about a few  things we want to do if we want to vanish   in the AI jihad. Like being in the  about-to-go-extinct industries, like finance,  

for example. Or violating the 10% rule. Then  we will take a look at the business of selling   shovels a well-tested, bullet proof strategy of  surving in any gold-rush type of environments.   Like AI jihad. Then, we will explore the new  frontiers. We will see if these challenging and   demanding areas can offer us a path to AI  greatness. And, as a desert, we will get   a glimpse of three general survival principles,  more like mindsets, that remain relevant in the   times of AI jihad. This is our survival map.   And this is where the second principle comes into   play. We tried to avoid the temptation of  giving instructions, like quit front-end and  

instead learn CUDA. Each one of us, of coders,  is different. We have different backgrounds,   different skills, and personalities. What works  for one, doesn t necessarily work for another.   This is why instead of instructions, we tried to  share with you our current understanding of the   situation, of which way it is evolving. We give  not instructions, but knowledge so each one of   us can make an informed decision. And finally,  third, it took us two months to make this guide,  

and we understand that this is a lot of  information to process. So, we split the guide in   five parts. They will be released one by one, each  Friday starting from May 24 And right   before we start a spoiler - we have bad news and  good news. Bad news - NVIDIA's Jensen Huang, it   seems like he is right - 90% of us, of coders and  tech people will have to go, soon. The good news,   though - the remaining 10% will survive. And even  thrive. But the good news is that the remaining  

10% will survive and thrive. Our objective is to  be in those 10%. All right, let s start.    As always, we start in unusual place. As  you can see, this is an ancient gold mine.   And these gentlemen, they are gold miners. They  dig dirt searching for nuggets. For centuries,  

our civilisation was organised in a very simple,  even primitive, way. If you wanted to do more,   to work more, to have more gold, you needed more  people. More labour providers. More people meant   more work is done. And that was going on like  this for centuries. The way people worked in   the first civilisations in Mesopotamia was not  fundamentally different from how people worked   just a few hundred years ago. Same tools, same  organisation. And the same fundamental principle  

if you needed to do more work, you needed more  people. Life of our ancestors was simple. They   produced just enough to survive. What you produce  - that's what you eat. That's it. The same story   for thousands of years. Until some bright mind,  decided that instead of spending everything,   decided to pay some portion of that little product  they made to create some mechanism, some tool,   some machine Here came the machine. At first,  just a shovel. Then, gradually it evolved into  

an excavator And it turned out that now, with  the use of the machine, there was no need for so   many people anymore. Hundred people could do same  amount of work as thousand people before. And   that's all because somebody invested capital to  make a machine. That s how capitalism was born.    Of course, that capital was not free. The owner  of the machine, the provider of that capital,   received a small fee for his machine. This is  actually quite an interesting question. How   small was that fee? Let s take a look. The  easiest way of thinking about it is imagining   a pizza. The whole pizza is what was produced by  the operator and the machine together. Here, we  

have providers of labour. The workers. And here,  the fellows that some time ago were smart enough   to save, and now they have become providers of  capital. And now, after the pizza was produced,   baked, that tasty pizza had to be shared. There  are a few ways to see in what proportion this   pizza is being split. For example, here.   Let s assume that we are in 1984, forty years  

ago. And let s assume that back then, the workers  and capitalists were sharing pizza 50/50. Now,   here is how much average labour income changed  since then. Since 1984. You see? Roughly by 30%   higher than in 1984. This is inflation adjusted  number. And now, let s take a look at the  

providers of capital. This is S&P500 for the same  period. For 40 years. We can think of S&P500 as a   rough equivalent of that fee that the capital  providers received for their machine. So,   in 1984, we assumed they were equal. Pizza was  split equal. And here s what happened then    If in 1984 half of the pizza went to workers,  now this is less than 1/3. Another way to  

look at the pizza split is house affordability.  How long did it take a median worker to buy a   median house. 40 years ago you needed just above  3 annual salaries to buy a house. Now, you need   almost 6. The reality is that our society is  designed to benefit capital providers, not labour   providers. It is done in many ways. For example,  by inflation - here, we have a video about it (you   will find a link in the description). Inflation is  effectively a stealth tax on labour. Another way   to extract value from labour providers and get  a larger slice of pizza is by directly taxing   it. Here is the current tax rate on capital gains  -and capital gains is the main source of income  

for the capital providers. So, the tax rate for  them in the US is 20%. If we look at the tax rate   for labour, the tax rate for labour providers -  it is 37% And you know what the funny part is?   Capital providers they often don t even have  to pay that 20%... Because the hire armies   of lawyers and accountants. Who are looking  for eway to minimise tax. To optimise it.   

The message here is simple - the whole system  is designed to transfer wealth from providers   of labour to the providers of capital. It is not a  bug, it s a feature. This is a part of the system   design. Let's remember that fact later - This is  our lesson 1 - in our little gold mine game labour   providers are paid less than capital providers.   And now, let s take a look at how much coders are  

being paid We almost got to the end of Part 1.  The part 2 will be here next Friday. We will talk   about Internet. About web development boom Because  we can t understand AI jihad without understanding   the nature and essence of wed development boom  and bust. This is what we will be talking about   in the Part two. You will see it on your screen  automatically, if you are subscribed. If you are   not subscribed, go there, find that button. Click  it. One favour I want to ask. You can actually  

help us. Because Scripter channel is young, and  the Youtube algorithm hasn t figure out yet, who   is the right audience. This is why the algorithm  is recommending it to very strange people. My   favourite one Because I can see it from the  inside My favorite one is Mexian soap opera   lovers club. Obviously not our target audience.   So, we need to find our people, our crowd, our   herd. And this is where you can help us. Just go  to those forums, chats, IT, tech, coder-related,  

gaming-related chat that you are frequent at Just  post a link to this video. So our crowd, our herd   finds us sooner. Alright, that s it, and now   the most important part happy birthday, mom!

2024-05-31 11:13

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