in an era of rising Global tensions coupled with the increasing digitization of economies and societies to what extent will new technologies like artificial intelligence play in the geopolitical quest for power let's ask in Syracuse Italy George Tash senior fellow at the Bill Graham Center for contemporary history at the UFT and the author of Cold War 2.0 artificial intelligence in the new battle between China Russia and America in Washington DC Rachel Zamba adjunct senior fellow at the center for a new American Security and lecturer at New York University's Center for Global Affairs and here in studio Bess momani professor of political science at the University of waterl senior fellow at CG the center for international governance Innovation and somebody who just drove two hours to get here you are brave to Brave our traffic so well done thank you for being here bessma once again George and Rachel great to have you on our program tonight George I want to start with you because the title of your book Cold War 2.0 suggests obviously we're in the middle of a second Cold War why do you think well in terms of geopolitics a couple of the leading autocracies in the world specifically China and Russia and their junior Partners Iran and North Korea have dragged us into this cold war because those autocracies are no longer willing to comply with the rules-based international order and what that has produced the tsunami of cyber attacks ransomware attacks including against hospitals in Ontario public libraries in Ontario and then waves of disinformation into social media in Ontario and Canada we're seeing economic coercion by these autocracies against the democracies hostage diplomacy we saw that with the to Michaels and then finally in terms of the Cold War China is launching all sorts of Gray Zone military punishment drills around Taiwan which is a critical democracy and then like in the first Cold War you had Regional hot Wars and we've got a big one currently in Ukraine by by Vladimir Putin and we've got Iran sewing and F military uh war in the Middle East so people are wondering why we're covering this story here the answer is because it hits home it definitely hits home for us Rachel I wonder if you could pick up on that answer and you know maybe add to the list of when we talk about the technological changes that are sweeping across the globe and affecting us in this way what other types of Technology do we need to know about sure so in addition to all these risks that George has laid out um very well we're also seeing countries including Canada really looking to leverage uh new technologies and develop uh you know sort of Drive growth um oil producing countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE who might sometimes be seen as as Junior partners of either the us or China um are really putting a lot of money into sort of AI and Tech development we are seeing uh increasing technology in Automotive Supply chains and all of the sort of in in really any supply chain we're looking at even um Metals mining oil and gas industries that are so important to Canada is is increasingly um ones where uh geological data and a variety of things are being used and the risk is as you have these different actors that some of these critical Supply chains could be could be tampered with not only by hackers um but a variety of so I think this is something that is affecting both for the from a risk side but also an opportunity side um us here in Canada and around the world basma this collision between Tech and geopolitics uh we've heard some examples from George you want to um I don't know anything else on your list you think we ought to know about that we need to add to it I definitely add chips semiconductors uh this is really where I think uh things really hit home you know we talked a little bit about Supply chains and you heard that and this really started when frankly Co hit and we started to become really aware of the word Supply chains it became common dinner conversation frankly and it really raised Awareness on the vulnerability of what we used to think was just in time delivery really this idea that globalization being unfettered worked for us and then all of a sudden not only are are we scrambling for masks which we did uh we're scrambling certainly for uh you know all things PPE you know and and and not to forget uh the fact that chips were a big component of that and that they were really just uh not available uh and we have a system today where a lot of our consumer products are smart I mean once you say smart it's you know the internet of things they're connected online they need chips and so washing machines have chips now in it so it's become ubiquitous in all of our consumer goods and so what this did what Co did was really opened our eyes to this vulnerability and this nationalism of making sure that our supply chains are secure and safe and just in time delivery no longer sufficed uh not for the aage average person and certainly not for policy makers and it became suddenly a national security interest and so geopolitics and National Security really came to light I think because of covid not to say that it hadn't preceded that with with Trump's trade Wars which he started with China initially back in 2018 but it just hit home and lastly I'm going to put in there is populism let's not forget because at the end of the day this idea of relying on external sources this idea of relying on unfettered globalization just no longer no longer was something that I think the average public was going to put up with and populist leaders today are more likely to blame external foes the external actors and so we're doing a lot of China bashing and in common you know and common parls of of of a lot of policy makers and that's really I think what has highlighted so I'd focus on chips it's really the ubiquitous thing and in all of our consumer goods and it's going to mean we are currently in a Chip War very much as George pointed out a reason for part of the Cold War 2.0 I was going to get to this later George but since bessma pointed out the the realities of uh last week's election in the United States how do you see this thing changing or not uh as a result of the election of Donald Trump and does it does it kind of go on steroids now or what happens well just to you know bring together everything that we've already mentioned um Ground Zero for GE politics and technology and specifically chips as as as bessma pointed out is Taiwan 92% of the advanced semiconductor chips in the world today are made on this small island called Taiwan it's no bigger than Vancouver Island tsmc the leading chip manufacturer is heavily into Taiwan 14 plants I was there about a year ago and it's really an astounding place and and Donald Trump is ambivalent as to whether he's going to come to the defense of Taiwan because China 160 kilometers that's all away from Taiwan across the Taiwan straight China says that Taiwan belongs to China and Taiwan has has other thoughts so this will be a huge litmus test for the new Administration in Washington is Will Donald Trump and his new secretary of state secretary of defense will they say and do the right things to make sure that deterrence is being affected Visa V Taiwan and its chip manufacturing capability Rachel you're at the center of it all right now Washington DC do you have a a view or a feeling about how Donald Trump will handle that when that crucial moment comes for him to make a decision about this you know he loves he loves his relationship with with President shei so how how do you see this rolling out well he does but they didn't part on good terms at the end of the the Trump Administration right um you know the start of 2020 Not only was the beginning of covid um and and that that scramble bessma was just talking about but it was also when they signed what with the phrase one trade deal where China agreed they were going to buy all sorts of us products in exchange for lifting tariffs and by the end of it all they ended on very poor terms so I do think you know one of the things Trump has pledged on on day one is tariffs on China maybe won't be day one but it'll be pretty soon um and I think that question mark not only of what's the signal sent over Taiwan but also other hotspots um in Asia and you know the Biden if anything I think we're already on on steroids in terms of focusing on using economic Warfare and tools to support these Supply chains one of the big questions going forward is going to be the balance between protecting existing Keynotes uh in semiconductors and technology and the US Focus to try to bring more of that production home right the Biden Administration supported by Congress allocated a lot of money to convince tsmc and other producers to produce in the United States Secretary of of the house Johnson recently said may maybe we'll cancel that we'll use the money for something else so I think this is going to be a key question mark and it's going to be a key area for allies of the US like um like Canada to think about where do they fit into some of these these Supply chains so there's geopolitics and National Security risk but Economic Security economic growth reshoring these these economic imperatives are also part of the picture now and it's I think a little and I think that the Donald Trump Trump's pension for deal making for negotiating for threatening tariffs for threatening restrictions makes him a harder one to predict perhaps but we're already seeing a US Administration that is very fixated and focused on these Supply chains and I don't think that's going to change bessma Canada came up in that answer so let me follow up with you on that federal government made a decision to get rid of Tik Tok last week right they're going to send him home um big deal little deal what do you think it's interesting uh certainly I mean look I think what what we've seen in the past few years and thinking about technology as a risk is the big question there are absolutely National Security issues uh without a doubt and I think you know there is some reason for us to have a lot of concerns about what were illegal technology transfer to a lot of these countries and and stealing I mean that's what it was it was not it was not sort of sign on the dotted line it was really stolen from us and we continue to see that as a as a real threat so it's understandable but the challenge here is that we've heard too often and I think the Americans have put this kind of aply this idea of having a small yard high fence and the idea was we're not trying to stop all globalization because that's just not doable we know that's not the case but what we're trying to do is really focus on really specific things and ironically chips is just one of the the many great things we're seeing that in solar we're seeing that in EV a number of other Technologies but the problem is you come to Someone Like Donald Trump coming to power you know does not know what that concept entails he really sees not just a big big yard tall fences and lots of bravado and so anything can happen and the Chinese have been working vehemently uh to try to really increase their capacity particularly in the semiconductor space space because that's not only those consumer goods that I talked about but it's really the core of artificial intelligence if they're going to succeed in the next wave of all things from just not just military but also civilian use they really need to be ahead of the game in C in all things Ai and so that really is a big part of it and I think what we're going to see with Trump coming to power is that bull and the china shop approach again and so the Chinese are going to be even more worried now about what's next right what next are the Americans going to bring in to put those tariff Wars in so again Tik Tok it's just tip of the iceberg and and too often I think we are looking at some of these applications with with a lot of Suspicion I don't know how much Tik Tok really is a great National security value certainly Gio I'm not no I don't have it I don't have it person we're banned from having it here too well look I mean one of the things on that is the location services right it tells you where you are and there's something really worrisome about the algorithm of Tik Tok it does not it's not clear you know some of the other uh social media um you know platforms are more clear about the kind of algorithm that's given to you that's not the case with Tik Tok and just one last thing really interesting in China bite dance the equivalent there it's all about bettering yourself the entire ire content and algorithm that's being pushed for the average young person a Tik Tok user bite dance in China is about how to be a better person how to be smarter how to work harder that's not the case that what we're having here in Canada and the West so there's something really fundamentally odd about that and back to disinformation using cyber cognitive Warfare you can't help but wonder what is the you know the Chinese real strategy here and pushing this kind of nonsense content that we see in Tik Tok today Georgia nonsense yeah yeah yeah no I hear you uh this one for you George is it fair to say that these technological rivalries are broadly divided by I guess the country's promoting liberal human rights Centric governance models versus those deploying technology to support authoritarianism can we sort of break it down in that way yeah and that's precisely the frame that I use in the book I think there's actually real value for people to understand what's going on by thinking about the democracies and the kinds of rules that we have the commitment to Human Rights commitment to the rule of law W which do not exist in China currently they do not exist in Russia so just actually to to to meld your latest question with the Tik Tock one uh I'm not on Tik Tock I go on it periodically for research purposes and if you put in your your request for information on Democracy you know you'll get 15 short videos 12 of which are absolute pure Beijing propaganda and what I say in my book is going to happen and I see it happening every day is a decoupling of the technological infrastructure of the world into to use your earlier phrase a second ago a democracy oriented Tech ecosystem and an autocracy Tech ecosystem system and just as you cannot get a whole raft of democracy type internet Platforms in China we should not be having Tick Tock in Canada in the United States in Europe and I totally agree with bma's point about geolocation the other danger in Tik Tock beyond the propaganda in the geolocation is there is a constant stream of data going back to China potentially they say they've got it offshore somewhere in Singapore but potentially to China and it's the same with EV cars from China to pick up on on best's earlier phrase anything that's smart creates a data trail consumers in the democracies should not have their data exposed to access by oppressive autocratic governments so yes there will be this decoupling just at the technological level you'll still be able to get all sorts of goods merchandise and you know Canadian Tire and Walmart and so on but when it comes to technology and smart devices unfortunately we we have to separate the world now I wonder Rachel whether you think we have the right either regulations or protocols or whatever in place to I guess enjoy and accelerate the benefits of what we're talking about here and mitigate against the risks that some of these new technology present what do you think I think we we need to get the balance right and in some ways the this the Tik Tok band of last week that we've been talking about is an example of where it's really tough to do it I think bessman and George both highlighted the risks but what's notable from the the new rule as I understand it um is that the marketing operations in Canada that added jobs in Canada has been what's banned and Canadians can still download Tik Tok they can still use it so the data security the Data Tracking elements are still present right now I mean and that's a government Balancing Act I anticipate around not wanting to take something away from Canadians that people are deriving value and comfort from right um but I think it's but it is an example of how how difficult that is what you know George's point about data and the data trail is really important and this is something where I think even democracies differ in what they think the right rules are Canada and European countries are among those that have pushed more for data localization um than than in the United States the US now is protecting bulk sales of its data to adversarial States like China Russia and Iran but in a sense the very large economic imperative of US tech companies meant that it probably wasn't the same you know the same concern um you know in a sense there was a push back so I I think we need to um you know there there more tools that we need and I do think liberal democracies and others need to think about collectively working on some of these tools um so that there's not more vulnerabilities and and fragmentation in these um no country even one as large as the US is is large enough to sort of put up a digital wall nor do nor does is that something that one would want and a smaller country like Canada I think really needs to think about those those tradeoffs so the the good thing is I think there is a greater understanding of some of the risks and the opportunities here the challenge is how to you know how to continue to grow these industries while also not opening up to uh critical infrastructure damage and other vulnerabilities now with the federal government asking Tick Tock to leave that is going to result in some some job loss I think there's a few hundred people in Vancouver who are going to lose their jobs as a result of this but I guess the suggestion is we are in an era when politics you'll forgive the use of this word trumps economics every time is that right I agree as a political scientists we've seen that uh from the beginning of time we do think it's an important part of it absolutely and it's not just I think the the jobs that in Vancouver as you noted but also the content creators that and the businesses that increasingly lean on having Tik Tok there I mean there's been real outcry from I think much of the content creator Community or influencers of how valuable Tik Tok is not alone let alone the tween that I know that are going to be really upset about this being pulled it is an issue it certainly is an issue but I think there are some National Security concerns that need to be discussed in more debated uh conversations about how much do we rely on these really important platforms what they do I think in terms of thinking about shaping public opinions it can't be really left in the hands of of of of countries that we don't see Shar Shing our values I I I play hockey with a guy who was talking to me in the dressing room about this this morning and he said 350 people in Vancouver going to lose their jobs this is a dumb decision by the government of Canada does he simply have to appreciate that he's in the middle of a global chess game right now and tough luck I think we're going to see a lot more of this happening uh frankly and and I think it's going to be a wakeup call uh because again Canadians have been generally a bit naive on this you know we don't think someone's trying to why would they want to attack us why why would they want to know this information about us we're so nice right we're so nice who would want to to do that but I think I think this is really going to open our eyes because everything in terms of our connection our connectivity online has now become a potential weapon you know it is the the baby steps toward cognitive Warfare It's really scary and it sounds almost sci-fi but that era is here nowadays having said all that though bessma I mean we we're not going to completely decouple our relationships from China over Tik Tok or for that matter over anything else are we I that's not of the cards is it you know we can't I mean I think that there's this mythology that somehow we can have um you know a world without um without this integration and I think it's just too far gone I mean there are certain things that we can do better at I think we need to improve our digital literacy we can improve our you know understanding of privacy which at the core of this we spend too much time just saying I agree I agree I agree to all of those conditions that are before us we download an app we just say I agree but we don't look at the fine print and the fine print if you read it is pretty terrible in terms of what you're giving away in terms of your privacy it's your data and that's why you know the Europeans have put in such really strict rules on this with the gdpr really helpful but we Canadians I think are too naive in that we just think oh what's this you know face tune is a great example of that you know this app that you know was looking at our face to tell us what we looked like when we were in 20 30 years from now well that was absolutely a Russian uh you know way of collecting data about our face and this is really dangerous you know for all of the facial recognition technology that is out there for the programming for all of the AI systems that they have I mean you can just see where it can be weaponized in a way that we have been as consumers quite honestly too naive about George I wonder whether you think Canadian businesses traditionally think deeply at all about geopolitics well right now they all need to be thinking very very seriously about what's euphemistically called a Taiwan straight contingency you what happens if China does move militarily against Taiwan so if you have any supply chain emanating from or coming through Taiwan and you know beyond semiconductor chips Taiwan makes a lot of other products the flat panel displays the Kindle reader the Cobo reader like a lot of those products come out of Taiwan so you've got to think through well do I have a second Source do I move some production to Mia or Mexico but then you also need frankly a China strategy because if China moves on Taiwan and if Trump does move to defend Taiwan and I think Japan will be there as well you know the the best war games uh tell us that a lot of soldiers are going to die very very quickly unfortunately and when body bags start going back to the States that's when you'll get the full decoupling of trade between China and the democracies and if you're a Canadian importer of whatever product even a very low tech product and your sole source of Supply is China at that point you know you're going to be hurting and and bma's reference to covid teaching us some of these lessons you know those lessons really need to be learned hard now because frankly I think the next two years could be critical for some activity in Asia that impacts adversely those supply chain so you've got to think it through now George you didn't see this but in the midst of that answer bessma started shaking her head and that always catches my attention so what what was the headshake about I don't think Trump is defending Taiwan Absol absolutely not he's not going to no and I think actually we've accelerated the possibility that China will actually do something in Taiwan because you know we Taiwan was called you know at one point because of its preeminence role as as George pointed out in the semiconductor industry that it had a silicon Shield by virtue of what it does but ironically what we've seen under the Biden Administration with the chips Act is really make China force it to accelerate its production and its knowledge of how to fabricate them themselves so what we have today in fact is less reason I mean the Silicon Shield wasn't just about the world worrying about Taiwan even China was dependent on Taiwan for those chips it's no longer the case it's broken through already and is able to do that on its own and so I think the probability of China attacking is higher than it was before the chips act and I think Trump as an actor is not going to run to defend Taiwan I really don't think he's interested certainly especially if the Middle East gets hot and Ukraine gets hot this is the furthest thing I think from his mind in which case Rachel as Canadian businesses try to consider their Futures and how events a half a world away can have an impact on them uh how incumbent is it upon them to start thinking more geopolitically about this world and how they run their Affairs I think it's essential um both in the Taiwan contingency we've been talking about but I think Canadian businesses have already had to think about um you know could products they're producing now end up in Russia right could they end up in Military and you know drones in Iran so I do think there's been this wakeup call um you know over the last several years um that that around the world Canadian businesses other businesses they have to pay attention to their supplier supplier and their buyer buyer Canada has brought in uh Force labor restrictions um the enforcement is a lot weaker perhaps s and and and and other challenges than the sort of similar measures in the United States and in Europe but I do think that businesses are being forced to really understand their supply chains and to make sure they're not running a foul of some of these these rules and you know I think George highlighted very well the risks of the US you know sort of the the US the the US China you know competition in that context I think even before you start talking about body bags that we could see economic restrictions we could see um unilateral sanctions we could see other measures that might impair Canadian businesses getting access to their materials and if you're a business that thinks oh I don't import anything directly from China I'm in the clear or I don't import from Taiwan I'm in the clear that's not the case right that's where you know maybe item something you're buying from Vietnam has components has chips that are coming from these other countries and a net result of both tariffs and these other supply chain issues we've been talking about has been a redirection of trade a sort of maybe increasing complexity of trade that we've seen uh throughout um throughout Asia and through other intermediary countries and so it's something businesses themselves need to use and collect a lot more data about their supply chains and make make sure that they're not just buying goods from two different factories that happen to be part of the same supply chain um and so that's something where investing in that data is going to be more important 10 years ago maybe if you were in the defense industry you paid attention to things like export controls that is not a luxury um that that that people have anymore well BMA give some advice to us here because if you're dealing if you're let's say you're a corporate executive or you're on a board somewhere and geopolitics is nothing that has ever been on your radar screen or under your consideration as you do your job how do you even begin to realize we're living in a new world now well I'll make a plug plug away which is uh University of watero is hosting a fantastic event with these good folks on on the screen you see here uh on November 26 called Tech Horizons and it really is an opportunity for the business Community to come here uh about how geopolitics matters and all things technology for the business community so first things that one thing um I think really it's a matter of uh finding geopolitical specialists in your midst I mean you know I think again you know we we've brought in ESG uh folks to help us manage that from before but now we need to think about geopolitics as part of the the sea Suite if you will that needs to be a part of the expertise we bring into uh corporations and I think that really we need to have that uh geopolitics is not going anywhere because it's much more turbulent both from the bottom you know from the bottom up and from the top down internationally so I would really advise uh leaders to think about hiring some geopolitical experts in their mths George I'll give you the last word on this Andor how well you think the Canadian government is doing and also taking all of this into account well just first a Shameless plug for my own book I've now given two talks to Canadian Pension funds uh centered around the book and the concepts in the book and so to bma's point um if you feel like you're a little bit thin either at the corporate board level the senior management sea Suite level uh you you've simply got to get up that curve because with respect I disagree as you heard a minute ago with bzma on Trump and Taiwan but that's the sort of discussion that that board absolutely has to have and and Rachel's point is that you know some of these Supply chains are actually really difficult to get to the bottom of because things show up from places that you know are a big surprise the Canadian government um I don't want to get into a whole big topic about the unseriousness of Ottawa today on for instance defense spending Visa V Trump we are going to learn just how unserious we've been when Minister Blair says that oh we'll get to the 2% NATO threshold you you know you've got to spend 2% of your GDP on defense we'll get there by 2032 something tells me that the new Administration in Washington is is not going to be satisfied with that answer so unfortunately uh Canada is going to get I think a very rude awakening on this I want to thank the three of you for coming on to TVO tonight and helping us with this and a reminder November 26th is your conference at University of waterl nope it's here in Toronto it's here in Toronto where's it Happ abely CIBC building at the CIBC downtown terrific okay thanks so much to George Tash senior fellow at the Bill Graham Center for contemporary history at the UV that book once again Cold War 2.0
artificial intelligence and the new battle between China Russia and America Rachel Zamba adjunct senior fellow Center for a new American Security lecturer NYU Center for Global Affairs and of course besto mman Professor Political Science University of waterl senior fellow at CG thanks so much everyone
2024-11-18