Snow covers the landscape, the night air is quiet except for the sniffles of freezing men. All of a sudden flares shoot up and trumpets start sounding. Men are rushing forward. The defenders awake from their frozen slumber to the sound of machine gun fire with curses and screams filling the silence in between each shot. The horde of Chinese
soldiers gets closer. Now matter how many are gunned down, the wave of bodies keeps moving forward. Out of ammunition, the soldiers start readying their knives, brass knuckles, and grenades for a hand-to-hand fight. Before they know it, Chinese troops start jumping
into foxholes and the organized defense becomes an every man for himself melee. This isn’t a scene taken from the Korean war, it’s actually what Indian troops experienced a decade after it. And China and India could very well go to war again. But who would win? Despite India being one of the main proponents of UN peace keeping missions and China not fighting a war since 1979, these two nations fighting one another is a real possibility. The two superpowers have a long-standing border dispute that started in the 1950s. After India
gained its independence from Great Britain, the country fought a series of full scale wars with its new neighbor Pakistan. But India was not done fighting border wars with its new found neighbors. During the 1950s, the Chinese government attempted to broker one-sided deals with India regarding its claims to Indian territory. Having demonstrated their willingness to defend their sovereignty against Pakistan, the Indian government refused offers from Mao Zedong to establish a Line of Actual Contact or LAC. The LAC was the name given to the border between the two countries, with the proposed LAC in 1962 extending past current Chinese positions. This infuriated Indian leaders, who then rejected the proposals. As a result, Chinese forces overran several isolated
Indian positions within the frontier area and Northeast India in what became the 1962 Sino-Indian War. The fighting only stopped when China advanced to the Line of Actual Contact, with some units moving past it. After the two nations brokered a ceasefire, the Chinese said they would move their actual border 20 kilometers behind the LAC and India agreed to this. But in the sixty years since that conflict, Chinese forces have moved past the
decided border into the LAC, hence why the area is still heavily militarized and hotly disputed. Before we dive into who would win a war between India and China, we must first look at the possible options for what a war would look like. For the purposes of this video, we will analyze two scenarios. The most likely course of action and the most dangerous course of action. For a conflict between these two, the most likely course of action would take place along their disputed land borders from the Northeast Frontier down to the Siliguri Corridor also known as the Chicken's Neck. These borders have been a political and military hot potato for over sixty years now, resulting in one major war, several large flare-ups, and thousands of territorial violations over the years. This highly contentious border would probably be the arena for a war to break out between the two countries. For the most dangerous scenario,
this would mean a full-on peer-to-peer conflict between the two countries. This would most likely result if India bested China in their border war and China needed to save face. Conversely, there is a large majority of war hawks within the Indian population that would want to see a full-scale escalation with China if they ever attempted a repeat of the 1962 Sino-Indian war.
Either way, a full-scale war between India and China is not outside the realm of possibility. Going back to the most likely course of action, China and India have been violating each other’s borders since the conclusion of the 1962 war. But despite the numerous violations, these border clashes rarely make international news. This is because historically, only about 1-2% of border incidents here get reported. The world is largely unaware of these skirmishes for a few reasons. First is the remote nature of the area. Situated in the Himalayan mountains and part of the Tibetan plateau, the Northeast Frontier and Northeastern India are very isolated, harsh places to live, much less fight a military campaign. Secondly is because both nations want to
minimize the impact of each other’s territorial violations to maintain political stability. Though there are a large number of Chinese and Indian forces in the region, the area currently has some peculiar rules in place to dissuade full out conflict from breaking out. For example, both sides have agreed that military patrols should not carry firearms. Surprisingly, this has been largely adhered to and is evidenced by the worst case of border violence since the 1962 war. On June 15, 2020, several hundred Chinese and Indian soldiers fought a six-hour medieval style battle in the Galwan valley. During the battle, both sides used knives, bayonets, clubs with barbed wire, and bats to pummel each other. Over the course of six hours, 20 Indian and
an estimated 45 Chinese soldiers were killed with 76 wounded on the Indian side alone. It’s exactly this type of escalation that would most likely kick off another war between the two powers. (Previously unreported border clash that took place September 2021 northeast India) So in the event that another such skirmish like this started another border war, let’s take a look at what each side would bring to the table. Starting with their armies, India and China have the first and second largest armies in the world in terms of personnel. In the blue corner,
India boasts a force of just under 1.25 million active-duty personnel. In the red corner, China comes in with around 300,000 less troops in their counterpart, the People’s Liberation Army-Ground Force. But the difference in numbers is deceiving. Over the past decade, China has started to shy away from its brute strength in numbers to focus on more precision weapons. On the other hand, India has opted to recruit heavily to bolster its army to make up for some critical gaps in technology. These critical technology gaps become more apparent when looking at the Indian army’s heavy equipment. Due to India toeing the line between Washington and Moscow during the Cold War, their military, and especially their army, is equipped with a mix of Soviet, Russian, and Western equipment- and none of it is the best either side has or had to offer. As for the army, the vast majority of their
equipment is of Russian or Soviet origin. Take their main battle tanks for example. The primary main battle tank of the Indian army is evenly split between the Russian T-90 and Soviet T-72. Fielding about 2000 and 2400 tanks respectively, these vehicles make up the bulk of India’s armored force. As for the T-72, though being a battle-hardened platform seeing action across the globe, the US invasion of Iraq and the current war in Ukraine have shown that these legacy Soviet systems have little place on a modern battlefield. With known vulnerabilities to anti-tank systems like the British NLAW or American Javelin, these Soviet tanks are vulnerable to modern top-down attack weapons. Due to the Chinese military’s infamous campaign of stealing information and reverse engineering critical technology, they have developed their own domestic copy of the American Javelin. Known as the HJ-12,
if you put them side by side, you would be hard pressed to find many differences between the two. Purported to have a range just under the American Javelin at 2 kilometers, the Chinese HJ-12 has been in active service for several years. On the other hand, the Indian military is still in the process of creating a similar type of weapon system. Though the they have carried out several successful tests over the past two years, it’s unknown when this system will finally be rolled out into active service. Until then, Indian forces will not have the capability to launch man-portable top-down attacks on armored vehicles like Chinese troops could. Instead, they would have to rely on helicopters or improvised missile carriers like the Nag missile carrier that fires the Nag anti-tank missile. Though potent, this weapon system has also proven to have issues firing in
environments with heavy smoke, fog, or dust. This is a big problem for Indian who heavily relies on the Russian built T-90s as the backbone of their armored force. The T-90 was Russia’s solution to eventually replace the failed T-80 and aging T-72 and T-64 series of tanks. Envisioned to have state-of-the-art sensors, fire control computers, and armor, the tank was supposed to be the best tank in Russian service, and arguably it is- even if Russia’s plans for sophisticated electronics never really panned out the way it hoped. The cornerstone of the T-90 is its Arena active protection system. The only problem was Russia
did not include that system in its foreign sale agreements. Active self protection systems are considered the gold standard for modern tanks. This is because tank armor can only get so thick and heavy before it starts to encumber the vehicle's movement. Active self-protection is a concept taken from naval warfare and put onto a tank. Here, a series of radars scan for incoming missiles or projectiles. The tank can detect these threats and can either fire off flares or chaff for a soft kill, or fire its own interceptors at it for a hard kill. Some tanks
can even perform soft kills by jamming the radio waves that the missile's onboard radar is using. With that in mind, the Indian military doesn’t have access to this critical technology because as is common with export weapons, the host country selling it does not want to give away all the technology that goes along with it. Because Russia has kept the arguably pretty good Arena active protection system a state secret, India has been trying to outsource its procurement of more advanced protection systems to other countries, to no avail so far. Despite not being able to find a good supplier for active protection systems, India has produced its own completely indigenous tank, the Arjun. The Arjun is the first and only tank entirely designed and produced in India. While India did produce most
of its T-72s and T-90s under a Russian license, Indian engineers relied on no outside help and, after almost thirty years developed a heavily armored and modern tank of their own. The Arjun is by far the best tank that India can field. With a weight-to-power ratio of 24, the tank is adequately powered to be maneuverable on both road and off-road conditions. With its 120mm main gun, it can fire a wide range of rounds and its heavy armor brings it to a weight of just under 60 tons fully combat loaded, with the newest variant weighing in at 67 tons, which is comparable to an American Abrams tank. This tank also has an active protection system, the only tank in India’s arsenal to have this feature. Designed around detecting incoming
electromagnetic signals from anti-tank guided missiles, the Arjun can then use jamming and smoke shells to defend against these threats. While certainly a leap in Indian armored technology, this capability would still outclassed by more modern protection systems seen in Western countries or even Russia. Squaring off against India’s tanks would be a wide variety of Chinese tanks. Outnumbering Indian tanks by about a thousand, the Chinese advantage in numbers doesn’t give it much of an edge over Indian due to Chinese tanks having weaker engines, a lack of adequate protection systems, and no combat experience. The two mainstays of the Chinese armored force are the Type 96 and Type 99. Numbering 2500 and
1200 respectively, these tanks make up the bulk of the armored force that would stream across the Indian frontier in the event of another Chinese invasion. As for the Type 96, the tank was born from a knee-jerk reaction by the Chinese military leadership. The Type 88 tank was largely based on legacy Soviet models like the T-54/55 tanks. These tanks made up the bulk of Saddam's
tank force during the Gulf War, and Chinese officials watched in horror as modern Western main battle tanks completely annihilated them. Because of this, the Type 96 was rushed through its development process. This resulted in the creation of an adequate enough tank that wasn’t much better then its predecessor, the Type 88. Though it was slightly heavier and had better armor, it was severely underpowered. With just a measly 730 hp, later upgraded to 865 hp, only
the latest models have an engine that is not underpowered. With a power-to-weight ratio of about 18 for older models, the early Type 96 was much less maneuverable than its heavier western counterparts. Additionally, the Chinese also implemented a similar active protection system to the one used on the Arjun but stopped equipping their tanks with it when modern anti-tank missiles could defeat it. Because of this, a replacement for the Type 96 was needed almost as soon as it entered service. The next step was the Type 99. The Type 99 was a massive improvement over the Type 96. The Chinese army installed a 1500 hp twin-turbo diesel engine to solve its chronic issues of being underpowered. Now with
a power factor of about 27, the tank was on par with western tanks in terms of maneuverability. The tank also got thicker armor that pushed its weight into the 50-ton range. However, its crown jewel was its active protection system. The Type 99 received an upgraded version of the
Type 96's protection system with improvements in both its jamming and radar technology. But its most unique feature is the system’s laser weapon. China claims that their APS systems use lasers to destroy incoming missiles. This claim, like most other Chinese military claims,
has never been verified by independent observers. It’s more likely that the Chinese use lasers to disrupt or confuse seekers on inbound missiles versus creating some death ray that explodes missiles on impact. But while little is known about these systems, western analysts have argued that the laser's effectiveness in low-visibility situations such as whwn operating in heavy smoke, fog, dust, and snow would be greatly limited. Because of this, the tank crew's best weapon would be the all-around radar that could detect incoming threats and alert the crew of a missile seeker.
As far as comparing the two countries' tank forces, they are pretty evenly matched. As everyone is aware, the Russian use of T-72s in Ukraine has yet to work out well for them. This is because tanks like the T-72 are not much better than target practice on a modern battlefield without modern upgrades to sights, fire control computers, and active protection systems. It’s unknown whether or not India has been upgrading their fleet of existing T-72s, and due to budget constraints, it’s unlikely they have been outfitted with the most modern upgrades. Even so, we do known that they have made many upgrades to their T-90s by incorporating advanced gun sights, computers, and communications equipment from countries like Israel and France. These upgrades have made the Indian T-90 arguably better than the ones in Russian inventories.When
comparing the two countries, the T-72 and Type 88, as well as the Type 99 and T-90 are evenly matched. India would have a slight edge with its newest Arjun tanks, but there are only two in service, and it would need many more to make a difference on the battlefield. Additionally, because Chinese soldiers have better anti-tank weapons in the HJ-12, Indian armor would be in more danger than Chinese tanks. As far as comparing Air Forces, the scales tip much more in favor of China. The core of Indian’s Air Force comes in the form of
its 173 MiG-21 and MiG-29 aircraft. Comprising the heart of its multi-role aircraft are the 272 Russian Su-30MKI aircraft. Opposing these Indian planes are just over 2,000 Chinese fighters and multi-role aircraft. The mainstay of the Chinese air arm would be the J-10 and J-11 aircraft, each with around 500 in service. The MiG-21 and MiG-29s that India fields are quite old. Having been built in the 1960s and 70s, these planes are better suited for museums than modern
air spaces. This is evidenced by a notable amount of crashes the Indian air force has suffered over the past several years, including one last year where two pilots died. The causes of the accidents have been kept a state secret, but it’s likely because India's airframes are old and spare parts are hard to come by. In fact, by 2025, India will ground all its remaining MiG-21 aircraft, just over a hundred, and the MiG-29s will likely be soon to follow. This means that these airframes are likely in such a bad shape that they cannot continue flying routine training missions, much less continuous combat sorties. With the two hundred or so MiG fighters
out of the question, India will have to rely heavily on its Su-30 aircraft in case of a war. While India has several newer aircraft models like the Dassault Mirage and Rafale, these number less than a hundred total units. More than likely, the Indian air force would send its Su-30 aircraft to retake the skies over the northern frontier if tensions escalated to full-out war. Comparing the Su-30 to the J-10 and J-11 aircraft, we see that the Su-30 is much heavier, about twice as heavy, but it’s able to achieve slightly better speeds. The J-10 and J-11 were both leaps in
Chinese aviation technology. While the J-11 is a domestically produced Su-27 built under license, the J-10 was domestically designed and produced. Both of these aircraft can achieve faster speeds, higher service ceilings, and more maneuverability than any other Chinese aircraft produced before. However, in a dog fight, they would be at a slight disadvantage depending on where they were. Under
normal conditions below 20,000 feet, the Su-30 would easily outgun them since their radars and missiles can hit them further than their own organic sensors could track the Su-30. However, in altitudes above 20,000 feet, the Su-30 loses some of its maneuverability due to how heavy it is. In the case of the northern frontier, where altitudes are routinely 16,000 to 23,000 feet, all aircraft there would be flying near the ceiling of their operational endurance. Additionally, this does not take into account numerous other aircraft the Chinese have in their inventories, such as the J-16 and XH-7. The J-16 is one of the most modern aircraft the Chinese possess. With about 200 hundred in service, the Chinese have a fourth-generation
fighter that is stealthier, faster, and with more advanced avionics than the J-16. The aircraft is also equipped with electronic warfare packages that can suppress or destroy enemy air defenses, something that India only added to its inventory for the first time in 2020. Because of all this, the Indian air force would be at a severe disadvantage in any scenario against the Chinese air force. The Indian air force is both outgunned and outnumbered in almost every area. With them losing several hundred aging MiG fighters over the next several years, India would be hard-pressed to come up with a strategy to employ its fighter aircraft smartly. Perhaps in a scenario against China, the India could take a page out of the Ukrainian playbook and move their aircraft around. They could have mobile air bases and store them in forested areas
to prevent being seen taking off from highways. Because of the huge difference in capability and numbers, the best the Indian air force could do is to keep the skies contested. India simply does not have the means to gain strategic air superiority over the Chinese. While they could
gain local air superiority in remote places like the northern frontier along the LAC, as an overall strategy, India would be focused on harassing and denying Chinese aircraft freedom of movement as much as possible. Due to the northern frontier and Line of Actual Control being landlocked, the navy would not play a part in these operations. With that in mind, let's first evaluate the most likely course of action before diving into the most dangerous course of action. Because of the extreme altitudes, any sort of mechanized warfare is basically out of the question. Sure some light tanks and vehicles could get
through, but their mobility would be limited. Additionally, resupplying in the mountains is notoriously tough. If not enough supplies were prepositioned, getting enough fuel up there would be a struggle during wartime. As far as air superiority, though China has many more aircraft, the extreme altitudes would mean that all aircraft have to carry less fuel and ordnance than they normally would. The freezing temperatures and poor weather most of the year would undoubtedly affect
flight time. Because of this, even if the Chinese gained air superiority, foul weather would likely negate most of this advantage, leaving their infantry formations exposed to Indian fire. Since the high mountains limit armored warfare and foul weather would limit aircraft sorties, the fight in the northern frontier would likely boil down to a light infantry and artillery duel. Because China has about twice the amount of artillery India possesses, it could, in theory, outgun Indian artillery. But again, the mountains come into play. Fighting in these extreme conditions would limit most types of radars. Modern artillery systems use radar to detect incoming rounds, this information is then used to direct fire missions to the location of enemy batteries. Because of the high elevations of these mountains,
artillery crews would be very limited on when and where they could fire. Thus an artillery fight in these conditions would probably involve a lot of direct line-of-sight shooting. That kind of fighting would come down to the individual crew's ability to load, sight, and fire their guns faster and better than the other side can. This would definitely level the playing field. Another factor that would level the playing field would be the Indian army's actual combat experience. China has not fought in a conflict since its disastrous 1979 invasion of Vietnam. On the other hand, the Indian military is quite battle-hardened. From border skirmishes with Pakistani soldiers and Islamic militants in the northwest frontier to fighting seven different guerilla groups in northeastern India, the military has been engaged in fighting low-level insurgencies combined with flare-ups with Pakistan from time to time. Additionally,
India has historically been one of the largest contributors of peacekeepers to UN missions. At any given year, on average several thousand Indian soldiers are deployed to combat zones abroad. With that number in mind, there are likely tens of thousands of soldiers who have combat experience abroad still serving in the Indian army. Combined with the tens if not hundreds of thousands of troops who have experience serving in conflict zones internally, India has the upper hand in terms of combat experience. Because the Chinese troops lack this experuence
and the extreme environment negating many advantages in Chinese technology, Indian forces would likely have the edge as long as their command and control employed their infantry effectively. During the 1962 war, the Indians suffered heavy casualties because their generals did not want to give up any ground. This caused units to become isolated and surrounded as they were not allowed to retreat, and Chinese formations simply overwhelmed and wiped out these outposts. Modern Indian strategists suggest that in
the event of another border war with China, Indian troops should have mountainsides and roads rigged with explosives. Doing this would slow down Chinese troop movements and could force them into prepared positions where Indian troops would have the advantage. However, this strategy hinges on the fact that Indian territory would have to be given up to bottleneck Chinese troops into these traps. Voluntarily allowing Indian territory to be surrendered is something that Delhi is
not too keen on doing since any land occupied by China during the conflict is unlikely to be given up, as evidenced by the 1962 peace accords. In the case that the border war leads to a larger conflict, the conflict would likely be fought with naval, space, cyber, and missile assets, at least for the first stage. Theoretically speaking, the war aim of China would be to land an invasion force in India to take over major population centers; the Chinese navy would be the star of the show for the first half of that fight. When comparing the two countries' navies,
the Chinese navy appears to have the advantage at first glance. Over the past twenty years, China has been on an aggressive campaign to modernize and strengthen its navy from a regional power that could only operate in the South China Sea to a navy that could operate in any waters around the planet. Part of this modernization has been the development of surface combatants and submarines. As far as surface combatants, the Chinese outnumber the Indian navy with 67 modern surface combatants against roughly 41 modern Indian combatants. The term modern typically means large surface combatants equipped with Vertical Launch Systems, a combat systems suite capable of launching modern missiles. When considering these numbers, China has about 26 Luyangs Destroyers and 30 Jiangkai Frigates. On the other hand,
India can field just 24 destroyers and frigates of various types that have the same capability. The Luyang destroyers and Jiangkai frigates represent the best in Chinese naval advancements. These two ships can fire some of the most advanced missiles China has in its arsenal, including the much-feared YJ-62. These ships are, for all intents and purposes, China's attempt to copy the American Aegis combat system and the destroyers and cruisers that house them. Complementing the Chinese ships are their ability to operate with their own tactical data links like the American Link 16. Tactical data links are huge in naval warfare since if tracks
and information cannot be shared securely between ships, it defeats the purpose of the extended range these combat suites provide. While these two ships represent the best in the Chinese surface fleet, it’s what is beneath the waves that should India’s leadership. The Chinese navy fields the world's second most capable submarine force behind the United States. While the Chinese field a variety of nuclear-powered submarines, their most fearsome is the Type 39A Yuan class submarines. What makes these so special is the engineering plant inside of them. For decades, what has made nuclear-powered submarines better than traditional diesel-electric boats has been the fact that nuclear-powered submarines never had to surface. Unlike their
nuclear counterparts, diesel-electric submarines have to surface to recharge their batteries, making the vessel vulnerable to attack from surface ships and aircraft. For decades, countries have been trying to create a reliable engineering plant where diesel submarines would not have to surface. Known as Air Independent Propulsion or AIP, about ten countries have figured out how to create this type of engineering plant as of today. However, there is much variation in the effectiveness of these plants, with China claiming that they made the best AIP engineering configuration to date. There is still a huge debate in the naval community on whether diesel or nuclear submarines are harder to detect. Each one has its own pros and cons. However, the fact that China has developed arguably the quietest
diesel submarines on the planet is not good news for India. But despite all of this, India is not totally defenseless against the Chinese navy. Standing against the Chinese navy are several dozen modern frigates and destroyers. The combat capabilities are pretty similar to their Chinese counterparts with one major exception: Indian naval vessels are armed with the fastest cruise missile in any nation’s inventory. The missile is called the BrahMos and was made in conjunction with Russian engineers throughout the early to mid-2000s. The end result has been truly extraordinary. The missile can be outfitted to ships, aircraft,
and submarines. It cruises around Mach 1, then transitions to an eye-popping Mach 3 for its terminal phase of flight. The missile also has the sea-skimming capability of staying about ten feet off the surface of the ocean. India classifies the missile's flight paths, but it’s likely it has a wide range of flight paths, including a high diving path to defeat most modern combat systems suites. The missile also has an extreme range of about 500 kilometers or 270 nautical miles. This is important because this is just beyond the max effective range of the Chinese
YJ-62 of 400 kilometers or 250 nautical miles. But despite this advantage, in overall terms of ballistic and cruise missiles, China is the clear winner. China is, bar none, the most prolific producer of cruise and ballistic missiles in the world. With thousands of missiles of dozens of
types, the Chinese have made missile technology a mainstay in their arsenal. The primary reason for this has been to keep the American Navy away from the South China Sea by blanketing the area with extended-range munitions since its surface forces could not go toe-to-toe in a fight with the US. China could leverage these long-range weapons in a war with India by using them to pummel strategic sites well out of reach from Indian threats. According to maps released by the Office of Naval Intelligence, China can send thousands of missiles against targets across the Indo-Pacific region. In the 1000-kilometer to 5000-kilometer range that encompasses most of
India, China could send hundreds of missiles into Indian territory with little fear of counterfire. Another way they could attack Indian targets is through their extensive cyber warfare arm. According to a study released in 2021, China is number two in the world in terms of cyber warfare capability, with India coming in at number 12. But how could this be when India produces the most college graduates in the field of information technology and cyber in the world? The main reason has been priorities. Before about 2015, India was content with just being a regional power. However, their fear of China has made the country's politicians
envision India being a peer with China. Part of being a peer is having a strong military, so they do not get bullied by Chinese tactics they have used on smaller nations. Because of this, India began an aggressive Made in India campaign to produce all types of weapon systems domestically. This is why so many of the newest Indian defense technologies have rolled
out over the past several years or are still in development. Cyber warfare was one of those areas. India's cyber economy is amongst the strongest in the world. However, for years the private sector has been under attack from a virtual onslaught of ransomware and cyber attacks both from criminal groups and nation-state actors like North Korea. Because of this, Indian society has now hardened its networks to be among the strongest in the world. All citizens
virtually require two-factor authentication for every website and app imaginable. This same mentality has spread to its military as well. However, India’s cyber warfare arm is still in development. Because the superpower has never needed this capability before, they have been working with the US and other western countries to help them develop their capabilities. China,
on the other hand, has the world's largest, albeit low-tech offensive cyber arm. Estimates vary, but a ballpark range of 100,000 cyber warriors spread among military and criminal groups that the Chinese government directly controls is a generally accepted number. It’s a fact that China is the most prolific cyber attacker in the world, however, their methods tend to not be very sophisticated. For example, the vast majority of thwarted cyber attacks are
actually traced to Chinese government sources. Though China has carried off some exceptionally successful cyber operations in recent years, these can all be attributed to the sheer volume of attacks conducted and getting lucky. The best way to describe China's cyber warfare capabilities is through the saying “throw it against the wall and see what sticks.” Countries like the US would exploit one glaring vulnerability without ever being detected, while China would try every way of infiltrating while hoping one works. China would certainly beat
India regarding offensive cyber operations. Still, because India has been hardening its networks, it’s unclear how much damage the Chinese military could really inflict. Further compounding China’s problems is the fact that it still lacks a significant amphibious capability. Currently, China’s amphibious assault fleet is inadequate for an attack on Taiwan- an island just off China’s coast- and just to attempt it, China would have to conscript hundreds of civilian vessels. An attack into the Indian ocean would be suicide for China.
While China couldn’t realistically threaten India with its naval forces, India meanwhile sits on China’s trade jugular. With much of China’s oil imports passing through the Indian ocean, India’s navy could with ease cut China off from this badly needed supply. This would leave China with only fuel imports from Russia, which would barely be enough to run its military. Its civilian sector would suffer from dramatic fuel shortages and its economy would tank as a result. But if, for some reason, China could land an invasion force in India successfully, the fight would still not be finished. China hasn’t had the experience of fighting a war on foreign soil in a
long time. Keeping their military supplied would be a challenge unless Chinese troops completely overrun the northern frontier areas. So in order for India to win a peer-to-peer war with China, they would need to hold their northern and eastern frontiers against China while also inflicting significant losses on the Chinese navy. Suppose the Chinese navy remains relatively intact and Chinese forces conduct a successful two-pronged invasion from the north and from the sea. In that case, India would likely be outgunned and outproduced
in the long run since China remains the world's number one manufacturer and number two economy. Now watch “Why China is About to Collapse.” Or check out this video instead.
2023-05-02