Elon Musk Talks AI (Artificial Intelligence)

You know in terms of things that I think are most. Likely to affect the the future of humanity I think. AI. Is probably. The single biggest item in the near term that's likely to affect, humanity. So it's. Very important that we have the. Advent of AI in. A, good. Way that, that's is, something that. If. You if you could look into Cristobal and and see the future you would like you would like that outcome. Because. It is something, that could go, could. Go wrong and as. We've talked about many times and. So we really need to make sure it goes right. That's. That's I think AI working. On a I'm and making sure it's a great. Future that's that's the most important thing I think right, now, the, most pressing item, speaking. Of really. Important problems AI. So you've been outspoken about AI could. You talk about what. You think the positive future for a it looks like and how we get there okay, I. Mean I do want to emphasize that. This. Is not really. Something. That I advocate, or or this is not, prescriptive. This is simply pretty. Hopefully. Predictive. As. We look some say oh well like. This is something that I want to occur instead, of so this something I think that probably. Is the best of, the. Available, alternatives. The. Best of the available, alternatives, that. I can come up with and maybe somebody else can come up with a better approach. Or. A better outcome is that. We. Achieve democratization, of AI technology meaning that no. One company, or. Small. Set of individuals has control, over advanced, AI technology I think that that's. Very dangerous. It. Could also get stolen by somebody bad you, know like some evil dictator or the country could send their intelligence. Agency to go steal it and gain control it. Just becomes a very unstable situation, I think if you've got any. Any. Incredibly, powerful, AI. You. Just don't know who's who's, gonna control that so it's. Not as I think that the risk is that the AI would develop a will of its own right off the bat I think it's, more the. Consumers, that some, someone. May. Use it in a way that is bad or. And, even if they weren't gonna use in a way that's bad but somebody could take it from them and use it in a way that's bad that that. I think is quite a big danger so, I think we must have democratization, of AI technology, and make it widely available. And. That's. You know the reason that obviously. You. Me and the rest the team you, know created open AI, was. To help. With. The democracy help, help spread out AI. Technology, so, it. Doesn't get concentrated, in the hands of a few and. But then of course that needs to be. Combined. With. Solving. The high bandwidth interface to, the. Cortex. Humans. Are so slow humans, are so slow yes. Exactly. But. You know we already have a situation, in our brain where we've got the cortex, and limbic system, and the. Limbic system is, kind, of over. That's that's the primitive. Brain it's kind of like the your your instincts, and. Whatnot. And, then. The cortex is a thinking upper, part of the brain those, two seem. To work together quite well. Occasionally. Your cortex and limbic system, may disagree but. They attending, it works pretty well generally works pretty well and it's, like rare to find someone who I've. Not found someone who wishes to either, get rid of the cortex or get rid of the Olympic system. Very. True yeah it's that's unusual so so. I think if we can effectively. Merge. With AI. By. Improving. That the. Neural. Link between. Your, cortex and the. Your. Digital extension yourself which already likes that already exists, just has a bandwidth, issue and. Then. Then effectively. You. Become an, AI. Human symbiote and. And, if, that then is widespread with. Anyone. Who wants it have it then. We solved the control problem as well we. Don't have to worry about, some. Sort, of evil dictator AI because. Kind of we are the AI collectively. That. Seems like the best outcome, I can think of so. You've, seen other, companies in the early days that start small and get really successful, hope. I don't work at asking this on camera but how do you think open AI is going as a six. Month old company. That's. Used to go pretty well I think we've got a really talented group at opening I and yeah. Really really talented team. And they're working hard. Open. Area structured, as see. A, 501c3, nonprofit, but. You know many nonprofits. Do. Not have a sense of urgency it's. Fine they don't have to have a sense of urgency. But. Opening ideas. Is. I think people really believe in the mission I think it's important and. It's, it's about minimizing. The. Risk of existential. Harm in. The future and. So. I think it's going well I'm pretty impressed, with what people, are, doing in the talent, level but, I think if it reaches, the threshold where, it's this s. Modest the smartest most inventive human, then. I, mean. It really could be I.

Mean. A matter of days before it's, smarter, than some of humanity. We're. Headed towards either super, intelligence, or, civilization. Ending and another, point that I think is really important to appreciate is that. We. Are all, of us already are cyborgs. So. You have a machine extension, of yourself, in the form of your your, phone and your computer and, all, your applications you. Are already, superhuman. But. By far you have more, powerful, capability, then, press. In the United States had you, know 30 years ago. If. You have an internet link you. Have an article of wisdom you can communicate. To millions. Of people can communicate to the rest of Earth instantly. And. These are magical powers. That. Didn't exist not that long ago, so, everyone, is already, superhuman. It, is the biggest risk, we face as a civilization, is artificial. Intelligence it's sold to. A group of leaders what. Would you advise that we should how, should we be addressing something that's it's so such a large landscape, and yet obviously so important, I. Think. That the you. Know one of the rules of government is to ensure the public good and. To. That. Dangerous. To, the. Public, are addressed. So. That hence. The regulatory thing, I think the, first order of business would be to try to learn as much as possible you. Know to understand, the, nature of the issues to. Look. Closely at the progress that is being made and, the remarkable. Achievements. Of artificial intelligence. Last. Year I. Go. Which is a quite. A difficult game, to beat that. People thought would never be beaten with. My. Computer. That the curricula, computer would we either never beat the best human player or that it was twenty years away, and, last year. Alphago, which was done by deep mind which is a kind, of a Google subsidiary. Absolutely. Crushed the, world's best player. And. Now, now. That now I can crush it can play at the top fifty simultaneously. Impossible. So. Just. Like that, pace of progress is. Remarkable. And. And. There's. You can see more and more coming out and robotics, you can see robots that can, learn to walk from. From nothing. You. Know within hours like. Way faster, than any biological, being. But. The thing, that's. Most. Dangerous, is. And. It's the hottest that kind of rap. Kind. Of get, your arms around because it's not a physical thing is, kind. Of a deep intelligence in the network. And. Said well what home could have deep intelligence in the network do so well I could start a war. Fight. Create, by doing fake news and spoofing email accounts and fake. Press releases and. Just. By you. Know manipulating, information the. Pen is mightier than the sword. So. I. Mean. As an example I want to be emphasized, I do not think this actually, occurred, this is purely a hypothetical that, I'd. Digging. My grave here. But, you know that like that though there was that second, Malaysian airliner that was shot down on the. Ukrainian. Russian water. And. That. That really amplified, tensions, between Russia. And the EU. In. A massive way well. Like. Let's, say if you had a an, AI that was. Where. The ai's goal was to maximize the value of portfolio, of stocks, one. Of the ways to maximize value would be to. Go. Long. On defense, short, on consumer, start, a war. And. Then. How. Could it do that well you know hacking into the Malaysian Airlines. Rat. Aircraft. Routing server a routed, over a war zone. Then. Sent an anonymous tip that an. Enemy aircraft. Is, flying overhead, right now. Let's. Go to Governor, Ducey and then. We'll. Have after, governor Ducey will finish our gubernatorial. Questions, and then two questions and we quick questions, or one audience, question, and we'll be dad we're running short on time governor, Ducey thanks Elon I really enjoyed your comments today and as someone, who has spent a lot of time in his administration trying. To reduce and eliminate regulations. I was. Surprised by your suggestion. To bring. Regulations. Before we know exactly what we're dealing with with, AI. You. Know I've heard the example used if. I were to come up with a colorless. Odorless. Tasteless. Gas. That. Was explosive, people, would say well, you have to ban that and then. We'd have no natural gas so. You've, given some of these examples, of how a a, I can, be an existential, threat but, I still, don't understand as policymakers, what. Type of regulations.

Beyond Slowdown, which typically. Policymakers. Don't get. In front, of entrepreneurs. Or innovators. Well. I think the first order of business would, be to gain insight, right. Now the governor does not even have an insight. And. I. And. The, right order of business would be to stand up regulatory, agency initial. Goal gain, insight into the, status of AI. Activity. Make. Sure it the situation is understood. Once. It is then put regulations in place to ensure Public Safety that's, it. And, for. Sure the, company is doing AI will most, of them not, mine. Will squawk and say hey, this. Is really gonna stifle innovation blah, blah it's gonna move to China it won't, and. It. Won't because like it's, like it has like it has Boeing moved to China nope they, were pulling aircraft here. Same. With on cars and. So. It's. There's. The notion that if you say establish regulatory, regime that companies, will simply move to. Countries. With with lower regulatory, comments is false. On the face of it because none of them do. And. Unless it's really, overbearing but. That's not. What I'm talking about here I'm, just talking about you, know make. Sure that there is awareness at the government level I. Think. Once. There is awareness. People. Will be extremely, afraid, as. They, should be. Well. First why I think, on. The artificial intelligence front, you. Know I I have exposure. To the very, most cutting-edge AI. And. I, think, people should be really concerned about it. I keep. So much sounding the alarm bell but you, know until, people. See like robots going down the street killing people. Like they don't know how to react you know because it seems so ethereal, and. I. Think. We should be really concerned about AI, and, I think we should, yeah. This is AI is a rare case where I think we need to be proactive in, regulation, instead of reactive. Because. I think by the time we. Are reactive, in AI, regulation. It's too late. And. Normally. The way regulations, are set up is that a whole bunch of bad things happen there's. Public outcry, the. The, and then after, many years a regulatory, agency is set up to regulate. That industry. There's. A bunch of opposition. From companies, who. Don't like being. Told what to do by regulators. And. It takes forever. That. They. That in, the past has. Been bad. But not. Something. Which represented. A. You. Know a fundamental. Risk to the existence, of civilization. AI. Is a fundamental. Risk to the existence of human civilization. In. A way that car. Accidents. Airplane. Crashes. Faulty. Drugs. Or. Bad food we're not they were not they were harmful, tin to. A. Set, of individuals within society, of course but they were not harmful, to society as. A whole. AI is a. Fundamental. Existential, risk, for human civilization, and. I don't think you hopefully, appreciate, that. You. Know it's not it's not fun being regulated it's, not you know. You're. Pretty or 'some but, I. You. Know in the car business you know we get, regulated by. Department of Transport by EPA and a bunch of others, and. This. Regs. For agencies in every every. Country, you know, in the in space. We. Get regulated by FA. And. But. But you know if you ask the average person hey you want to do, you want to get rid of the FAA and. Just, like, take. It take a chance on manufacturers, not cutting corners on the aircraft because, you, know profits were down that quarter I was. Like hell, no. That's. Sounds durable. So. You. Know I think. Even, people who are pretty extremely. Like the libertarian, free-market they, were like yeah we should pull have some me keeping. An eye on the aircraft companies making sure they build, a good aircraft and. Good cars and that kind of thing so. Yeah. I think there's there's a role for regulators. That's. Very important, and. I'm against over-regulation, for sure but, man. We I think we better get. On that with AI. Fronto. And. So. They'll certainly view a lot of job disruption. Because. What's gonna happen is robust will be able to do everything. Better than us I mean. I'm, quitting I mean, all of us you know. Yeah. What's. Real exactly, what to do about this. It's. Like the it's the like, it was really like the scariest problem to me I'll, tell you and. Yeah. So I, really. Think we need to go a regulation, here just uh because, this is you, know ensuring the public good is served because. You're good companies that are racing that they kind of have to race to build AI or they're gonna be.

Made. Uncompetitive. You, know like that essentially, if your competitor, is Racing's evolved AI and you don't they will crush you, so. Then you're like ah we don't request, so. You. Know I guess, we need to bullet to. That's. Where you need the regulator's come in and say hey guys, you. All need to really. You. Know just. Pause. And make sure, this is safe and like when when it's cool and working a bit and regulators are convinced that it's safe to proceed then you can go but, otherwise slow. Down, and. Bit, slung them but you need, the regulator's to do that for, all the teams in the game you. Know. Otherwise. The shareholders will be saying like hey why you developing. AI, faster. Because. Your competitor is like, okay, we've. Got to do that. Anyway. So it's, like. Hey. There's like something like 12% of jobs or transport. Transport. Will be one of the first things to go fully autonomous. But. When I say everything like, the robots will be able to do everything. Barn. Or nothing. Well. I think. It is, difficult to appreciate just how far. Artificial. Intelligence has advanced, and how far it is, advancing. Because. We have a double, exponential. At work we. Have an exponential increase in, hardware. Capability, and. We have an exponential increase in. Software. Talent that is going into AI. So. Whenever. You have a double exponential it's very difficult to predict. Prediction. Is almost always going to be too conservative in terms thinking, it'll be further out than it is. You. Know you start to see things like if. You seem like the video is where you. Can sort. Of really quite accurately, video. Simulate, someone. And. Put, words in their mouth that they never spoke. He. Was Google is it's really pretty amazing. And, then. They they had this they called a, generative. Adversarial. Network it had had two of them. Compete. With one another to, make the most convincing video, no, one. Would generate the video and then the other one would identify, where, it, it, looked fake and and then that that, would the other one would fix that and. Then they'd, go back and forth to, the point where can. Tell which one was the real real, video which was the paperboy. And. You. Know sleep have been some very, public things, like the defeat of alphago. Or. To be of go by alphago, the, world's best go champion people thought defeating, go was either, never or 20 years away that. Was world's, best go, player was defeated, and. Now that. Same alphago, system, can defeat the top 50 players simultaneously with. Zero percent of chance of them winning, and. That's one year later. So. The, degrees of freedom to which artificial, intelligence is able to apply itself or really. Increasing, I. Think. By ten, orders of magnitude a year, that's. Really crazy. So. I think and, we're talking yeah and this is on hardware, that is really not as well suited for neural. Nets. You. Know like. A GPU, is, maybe and we're back to be better than CPU but. Something but a chip. That is designed optimally, for neural nets is an order of magnitude better. Than a GPU. And. That. Is there, are a whole bunch of. Neural. Net optimized chips coming out. Either. Late this year or else your. So. I think. We. Should I. Think the, other father. All the government is to make. Sure the public is. Safe. Like to take care of public. Safety issues and, I think so I think the right move is to Salish some. Government.

Regulatory Agency, which at first is just, there to gain, insight, so. It's. Not about like shooting from the hip and just putting in rules before anyone knows I think but. You gotta stuff agency, it's, got a gain. Insight, once. That inside is, gained then, start, applying, rules. And regulations. We. Have that full of the you know for aircraft they got, that for cars, good that for, you. Know drugs for food. And. I, don't think anyone wants, the FAA to go away or FTA to go away or you. Know any. Of those regulatory agencies, then, I. Think. We just need to make sure people do not cut corners on, AI safety. It's. Maybe it's gonna be a real big deal, and. It's gonna come on like a like, a tidal wave.

2018-07-07 07:24

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