China vs United States - Who Will Win WW3? || Military Army Comparison

China vs United States - Who Will Win WW3? || Military Army Comparison

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With Russia's invasion of Ukraine most of  the world's attention is on eastern Europe,   and a potential confrontation between Russia  and America. However, for those in the know,   the real cause for concern is China's reaction to  Russia's invasion. Rather than joining the world   in condemning Russia, China has joined India  in sidelining the seriousness of the invasion.   Even worse, China now supports and  helps spread Kremlin propaganda,   suppressing the atrocities committed  by Russia on Ukrainian civilians.

Why is China so interested in helping Russia  weather the global storm it unleashed?   Because China has plans to  launch its own invasion,   and that puts it on a collision course  with the United States of America. Not long ago China's President Xi Jinping stated  that China must reunite the breakaway island of   Taiwan with the mainland. After World War  II, Chinese nationalists continued their   war against rebel Communist forces, inevitably  losing and being forced to flee the mainland   for the island of Taiwan. In the years since,  Taiwan has flourished into a vibrant democracy   and a major global economy- but  China refuses to acknowledge its   independence and threatens military action and  economic punishment against anyone who does. The problem with what would be an otherwise  internal security matter for the Chinese   is that the US has vowed to defend the  fellow democracy against Chinese aggression. But why does China want Taiwan so bad? The reasons are numerous, but chief  amongst them is because Taiwan represents   a critical strategic vulnerability for China.  Currently, China is hemmed in by what's known  

as the 'first island chain'. This includes  Taiwan, the northern Philippines, Borneo,   Japan, and the Ryukyu Islands. Originally, the  United States used the first island chain as a   strategy to hem in the Soviet Union and  its allies during the Cold War and deny   them access to the Pacific in case of war. To  that end, it established strong relationships   with all first island chain nations with  partnerships that continue to this day. Now the Cold War is over, but a new cold war has  dawned- and China is America's new rival. With  

pro-US forces all along the first island chain,  China will never be able to be a true global   power, as its navy is too vulnerable to attack.  Taking Taiwan will break the island chain in two,   and give China an island fortress from which  to project power deep into the Pacific. But Taiwan is itself a critical threat to China's  continued existence- or at least its continued   existence under the dictatorship of the Chinese  Communist Party. As a democratic state, Taiwan is   an example to all of China of a different, better  way of life, and many young Chinese people who are   being increasingly exposed to foreign culture are  growing tired of the oppressive rule of the CCP.   For them, Taiwan is a beacon of hope for what  China could look like, rather than the nation   of strict censorship, government intimidation,  and very limited freedom that exists today.

Despite erecting the Great Firewall in  order to try and limit China's access to   uncensored information, influence from outside  of China still reaches the country’s citizens.   This is a dire threat to the CCP, and thus  neutralizing Taiwan and bringing it into the fold   is but one step into ensuring its own survival.  Next, it must topple the United States as the   head of the global order so it can export its  brand of authoritarianism around the globe.  

If it can control global culture, it doesn't  need to fear rebellion within its own borders.   Taking Taiwan is a strategic necessity if China  is going to challenge the influence of the US.  If China is going to rise as the dominant  superpower, or even just one that can compete   with the United States, it must also  be able to control the south Pacific.   Currently, the United States navy  operates with impunity across the Pacific,   and this puts critical Chinese trade routes  in serious risk in case of war against the   US. China imports the majority of its oil  and relies on exports for much of its trade-   if the US were to cut this lifeline off,  China's economy would shrink significantly. Taking Taiwan and throwing the US out of the  South Pacific thus ensures the safety and security   of its trade, and removes the dagger the US  currently holds to China's throat in case of war.

But how exactly is China going to take  on the world's most powerful military,   is it truly capable of challenging  the US, and what do the numbers say? China's strategy to dethrone the United States  is to dominate what has come to be called the   'fourth industrial revolution'. The first  industrial revolution was the use of steam   power to mechanize production, allowing for never  before seen productivity and efficiency. Not long   after came the second industrial revolution,  heralded by cheap and abundant electricity which   allowed mass production on an epic scale.  The third industrial revolution introduced  

advanced electronics and information technology  to automate production, and now we are building on   this revolution for what has become known as the  fourth industrial revolution. This new revolution   will be a digital revolution, with billions of  people connected electronically and breakthroughs   in artificial intelligence, robotics, 3-d  printing, quantum computing, and other fields. Much like the first factory to install  a steam engine couldn't picture what   the world would look like just ten years  from then, it's hard for us to predict   what life will look like in the wake  of the fourth industrial revolution,   though it is going to be the most revolutionary  change in the affairs of human history. However, China is picturing the fourth industrial  revolution as the key to global hegemony,   and it is investing billions into ensuring that  it is the dominant power in the new world to come. China's strategy to dominate the world in the  coming decades is a fusion of civilian and   military application of technology. First, it is  striving to be a leader in technology development,  

ensuring that it is the first to  create revolutionary technologies,   thus enriching itself financially and creating  dependency from the world on Chinese goods   and services. Secondly, China is seeking to  quickly turn new technological breakthroughs   into usable military technologies that will allow  it to surpass and dominate the United States. China envisions future technologies as increasing  the speed of future warfare, with future military   success reliant on having forces that are  “mechanized, informatized, and intelligentized”,   according to the 2021 DoD's China Military  Power Report. What this means is that China   understands that victory is only possible with  fully mechanized forces capable of being quickly   moved into conflict zones and supported with heavy  firepower. However, those forces must also have   access to a wealth of information via disseminated  sensor systems, with this information shepherded   through artificial intelligence that can give  battlefield commanders exactly the information   they need at the moment, while temporarily  ignoring what they don't. Warfighters don't just  

need information, they need help sorting through  it and quickly utilizing what is presently useful. If this sounds familiar to any of our  viewers, it's because this is exactly   the requirements the US military was  investigating just a few years ago. China's Academy of Military Science  has now established a mandate “that   the People's Liberation Army's  warfighting theory and doctrine   fully capitalize on disruptive technologies like  AI and autonomous systems.” Much like the US did  

in the first Cold War, China's focus is on  building a modern, state-of-the-art force-   but today's force must be capable of  accessing vast amounts of information   and supported by AI that can execute automated  tasks and assist with decision making. China wants to teach machines how to wage war, so  they can advise commanders in the thick of battle. Currently, the Chinese military is not very  well networked- but those capabilities are   increasing every year. It was only a few years  ago that China first established a combined arms   operations capability by establishing joint  chains of command between its services in the   same style as the United States. Now it seeks to  match the US's networked capabilities by 2027,   and exceed them shortly after. But  why is networking so important?  

Well, for one it is what makes the US  military so immediately lethal to opponents.   Having the ability to network together  ground, sea, air, and space assets   allows for the swift exchange of information, and  gives a fighting force incredible adaptability and   initiative on the battlefield. For an example of  what happens when a modern force is not networked,   all one has to do is look at the terrible losses  being suffered by the Russians against a nation   a fraction their size and capability. In the  21st century, the Russian military is still  

fighting battles like it was World War 2, and  the Ukrainians are making them suffer for it. In order to become a global  leader in defense technology,   China is taking a page straight out of the US's  book by pursuing a strategy of civil-military   fusion. What made the United States the  superior power during the first Cold War   was the close partnership between its military and  civilian industry, which thrived in an environment   of innovation. Such a partnership allowed for  the swift adaptation of civilian technological  

breakthroughs into military assets, and vice  versa- with US military technology breakthroughs   quickly adapted into civilian technologies, making  US companies the most competitive in the world. Artificial intelligence, robotics, quantum  computing, and biotechnology will shape not just   the future of warfare, but human society itself.  Achieving technological superiority and leadership   in one or more of these areas will make China a  true competitor to the United States. Achieving   hegemony over all of these critical areas will  make China an insurmountable superpower. In order  

to achieve this goal, China is investing heavily  in domestic innovation, but also in foreign   investment to acquire technology, the recruitment  of global talent, academic collaboration for   research and development, and finally China's  strong point: military and industrial espionage. So how is the United States preparing  for this looming confrontation? First, as scary as China's ascension may seem  it's important to remember that it is still   running uphill against America. Since the end  of the first cold war, the United States has   influenced a new global order based on growing  liberal democratic values. As we have seen in   the global backlash against Russia, the new world  order frowns on the autocracies and abuses of the   old world- Vladimir Putin is a relic of the  old world with no place in modern society,   and with a unified voice the West has shouted  him and his nation down, even going so far as   to severely hurt themselves financially in  order to punish Russian military aggression. This should be of grave concern to China's  Xi Jinping and his Chinese Communist Party,   as they too are relics of the old world. The  uprisings in Hong Kong that lasted for months  

are but a taste of the simmering tension  just under the surface of Chinese society,   and proof to the CCP of the corrupting  influence of liberal western values.   Should China follow in Russia's footsteps  and engage the world with hostility,   it too will quickly find itself a pariah and  outcast nation, effectively crippling any bid   to become a global leader. This is why it's so  important for China to undermine western values. The United States remains the world leader  in technological innovation, despite mounting   pressure from China and beyond. But the US is  far ahead in one important area of technology-  

its ability to rapidly commercialize new  and emerging technology on global markets.   While Chinese technology grows  in influence around the world,   American companies are already globally  established brands. China's modern problem   is in convincing the world to buy more  than just cheap manufactured goods from it.

US commercial success is also due to its  global cultural domination. American brands   are present in every country on earth, but so  is its culture. With one of the most rapidly   evolving cultures in the world, US culture can be  hard to define or nail down- but cultural export   instruments such as Hollywood and Silicon  Valley remain unassailable by their Chinese   counterparts. For instance, while China may  have developed the massively popular Tiktok app,   it wasn't until China pushed the  app on the American marketplace   and established relationships with American  influencers that the app exploded in popularity. This is important, because military and  economic might only count for so much,   and the US has used culture to bridge ideological  gaps with partner nations around the world.  

Shared culture is the bedrock of strong strategic  partnerships, and China has absolutely nothing of   the like- except for its partnership with North  Korea. Shared culture and shared values are   the reason the US remains the leader of the free  world, not because its military is the strongest. Culture is another problem for China in its  ongoing confrontation against the US and the   rest of the west, because one of China's  biggest problems is in creating immigrant   Chinese citizens. While over a million  Chinese-Americans reside in America,   only a few thousand American-Chinese have made  their home in China. If China seeks to dominate   future technologies by recruiting promising talent  from around the world, it must be able to entice   them not just financially, but also with a desire  to make China their new home. This is a massive   problem for China versus the US, which remains  one of the most attractive destinations for the   world's most talented due to not just economic  opportunity, but its liberal democratic values.

Finally, China must not just triumph over the  United States in future competition, but against   the world- because outdoing the United States  in one or more areas of technological innovation   means little due to wide-reaching US alliances  and partnerships. For America, a win by one of   its allies is still a win for the US- while China  must stand against the world completely alone. But how do the numbers stand today,   what if conflict broke out tomorrow  between the two military heavyweights? Currently the United States is ranked as the  world's number one military power, with China in   the number three spot. However, this is debatable,  as given Russia's extremely poor performance in   Ukraine we expect that China will climb to the  number two spot by next year, dethroning Russia   whom it seems, derives most of its power from  its ability to threaten with nuclear weapons. However, poor Russian performance should  deeply concern China, because just like Russia,   the Chinese military is also completely  untested against modern, capable foes.  

While Russian forces were more than adequate  to crush uprisings in Aleppo and Chechnya,   Russian superiority in numbers and equipment  meant very little when it went up against   Ukraine's western-trained military. With China's  last war being against Vietnam in the 70s-   a conflict it ended up losing- China  should be extremely concerned about   facing the United States in battle, whom unlike  China, is thoroughly tested in modern combat. Much like Russia, China has lacked a robust  training regimen for its military, with exercises   typically being highly scripted and mostly for the  benefit of visiting dignitaries. This culture has   begun to change within China, but the nation is  yet to match the robust training schedule of the   US military. Realistic training though isn't  enough for the Chinese military, as it- also   like Russia- must also contend with a legacy of  corruption that has plagued its ranks for decades.  

President Xi Jinping's massive anti-corruption  effort has produced great results, but the service   must still contend with many officers who hold  rank due to the time-honored Chinese tradition   of gifting, wherein a junior official gifts  a senior official in exchange for promotion. Currently, the Chinese military numbers at 2  million strong, dwarfing the US military and   its 1.39 million strong force. This gives China  a numbers advantage, but the US retains a great   deal of force multipliers that don't just even the  playing field, but tip it decisively in its favor.   Chief amongst these is a well-trained  and well-equipped modern fighting force,   while Chinese units vary widely in modernity.  A hefty investment in precision weaponry,   integrated forces, and superior  sensor and tracking technologies   make the US a lethal adversary even  against a numerically superior foe.

Reserves will play a critical role  in any Sino-American conflict,   and both sides are nearly evenly matched  with China having 510,000 ready reservists   versus the US's 442,000. American reservists  receive continual training of one weekend a month   and two weeks out of the year, while training for  Chinese reservists is improving, but still spotty.   This provides the United States with a smaller  reservist pool, but one that is more quickly   capable of being introduced into the fight,  while Chinese reservists will require longer   training periods or risk being thrown  into combat completely unprepared. The American defense budget dwarf's China's at 770  billion versus China's 250 billion. But that's not  

telling the whole story. First, the US budget  includes many costs for operations that would   have nothing to do in case of war with China, such  as funding for its 11 unified combatant commands   spread out across the world. These combatant  commands are responsible for general peacekeeping,   and their presence is a globally stabilizing  force- without them, local conflicts would   quickly sprout and spiral out of control.  For example, without US Central Command,   Iran would quickly seek to neutralize  regional adversaries such as Saudi Arabia,   causing massive global disruption of oil and  other trade that passes through the region.

Also, China does not count all of its military  investments within its published budget report,   cleverly hiding them within other non-military  budgets. A large part of its nuclear modernization   initiative for example is coming from funds  outside of its official military budget. Lastly,   because Chinese military equipment is sourced  locally, it pays less for goods than the US does   for its own equipment. That's because the standard  of living is lower in China, with lower wages   and less benefits which means cheaper production  costs. When compared by purchasing power parity,   China's budget is significantly closer to the US's  than a first glance would lead one to believe.

Any war between the US and China will be waged  at sea and in the air, making comparisons of   the two side's air forces and navies of utmost  importance. The US operates an air fleet of 13,247   aircraft, easily dwarfing the Chinese air fleet  of 3,285. When it comes to fighter aircraft,   the two sides are closer together though, with  the US having 1,957 fighters versus China's 1,200.   American air mobility absolutely  dwarfs Chinese mobility though,   with a transport fleet of 982  aircraft versus China's 286-   understandable given that the US faces conflicts  far from its own shores and China has little need   to move its own forces significant distances.  However, the massive advantage in airlift   capability makes the US military much more  flexible and agile than the Chinese military. Perhaps the most important distinction  between the two air forces though is the   number of special-mission aircraft, with  the US operating 774 versus China's 114.  

The US has placed a premium on equipping  aircraft for everything from early warning   to electronic and signals intelligence and  anti-submarine warfare. The US dwarfs China   in special-mission capabilities, and it's part of  what makes the US Air Force and Navy so lethal. Unless a confrontation between the  US and China takes place on Taiwan,   attack helicopters won't figure into  the equation. However, if they do,   the US outnumbers China with 910  attack helicopters versus China's 281. Numbers only tell part of the story though,  because the weapon systems used by both sides   only further skew the advantage to the US. For air superiority, the United States fields the  F-15 Eagle and F-18 Super Hornet. A fleet of 187  

operational F-22s are unmatched by China, who is  yet to field its own 5th generation fighter in any   significant numbers. Adding to China's problems is  the US's Rapid Raptor program, which aims to bring   a sizable contingent of F-22s to any battle space  in the world within 24 hours. China's competitor   versus the Raptor is the J-20, which is equipped  with inferior engines versus American planes,   requiring the use of canards on the body of  the plane. These canards and other obvious   engineering flaws have led defense analysts  to conclude that the J-20 has at best only   a slightly smaller radar cross signature than  a traditional 4th generation fighter. In fact,   India claims that it has frequently observed  and tracked Chinese J-20s with long-range radar. The rest of the Chinese air force varies widely  in modernity, with a significant part of its air   force still flying Cold War Russian made or  Chinese licensed relics. While China would  

initially put its most modern fighters, such  as its J-16s, J-11s, and Su-30s into the fight   first, once those have been downed it will be  increasingly reliant on older and older planes.   Meanwhile the United States doesn't just have  a completely modern air fleet, but is adding   dozens of 5th generation F-35s every year to its  arsenal. The US Air Force now has over 280 F-35s   it can bring to the fight, with an additional 157  being added a year across the various services. In a war where air power would be decisive,   the US not only has the numbers advantage,  but also the technological advantage. At sea, the US Navy is outnumbered by the Chinese  Navy, with 484 vessels versus China's 777.  

However, here numbers are once again only telling  part of the story. The US operates 11 aircraft   carriers versus China's 2, and American aircraft  carriers can bring over 800 aircraft into the   fight versus China's grand total of 70. China's  inflated naval numbers take into account things   like missile boats, of which it has 84, while the  US only operates 10. In terms of tonnage, the US   Navy has over twice the hardware of the Chinese  navy- 4.6 million tons versus 2 million tons. A better way to compare the capabilities of the  two fleets is to use a modern metric: battle force   missiles. This is a count of the total number  of missiles that a fleet has for use in combat  

before requiring resupply. This includes  anti-ship missiles, land-attack missiles,   surface-to-air missiles, and torpedoes.  Excluded from the count are short-range   self-defense missiles like the US's SeaRam. In  2019, the US Navy had 11,834 battle force missiles   versus China's 5,250. The gap is narrowing, but  not significantly, with China adding fifteen more   Type 055 cruisers with 112 missile cells and  six torpedo tubes each throughout the 2020s.  

That will increase total battle force missiles  by 1,770- just over half of what the US fields. Under the surface, China has the advantage with  71 submarines versus the US's 68. However, Chinese   submarines are mostly conventionally powered,  while US subs are all nuclear powered. This makes   US submarines much more robust and able to operate  for longer, but also decreases their vulnerability   while operating. Chinese submarines are also an  order of magnitude louder than US submarines,   with their Jin Class ballistic missile submarines  having an acoustic signature of around 120   decibels, while American Virginia-class submarines  have an acoustic signature of 95 decibels- which   is just 5 decibels over background ocean noise  at an average of 90 decibels. Submarine warfare   has always been a weakness of China, and looks set  to continue being so for the foreseeable future.

While the US clearly has the naval advantage, it's  important to remember that China can concentrate   most of its fleet into a Pacific war against  America, while the US has naval commitments   around the world. Even if it were to recall the  bulk of its fleet for action in the Pacific,   such an act would take from days to weeks to  mature into a sizable transit of combat power   into the theater. Realistically speaking,  the US Navy maintains an edge over China   but the two sides are very close  to parity in terms of capabilities. Where the US advantage comes is in its  ability to quickly replenish combat losses   with well-trained crews and modern ships, while  Chinese combat losses are not so easily replaced.   Further honing America's advantage over  China is its partnership with regional   powers such as Japan and Australia, who would  either allow the US to use their territory as   bases of operation for war against China, or  very likely join the conflict itself. A new  

trilateral defense pact between the United  Kingdom, the United States, and Australia   is even seeing the US building nuclear attack  submarines for Australia on the condition that   in case of war, it will join the effort against  the People's Liberation Army Navy and air force. America's advantage in equipment and technology  is sizable and looks set to remain so, but it's   the US's global partnerships and championing of  liberal values that present the greatest, likely   insurmountable challenge for China. Until the  Chinese Communist Party changes its core values,   if it wishes to fight against America, it's  picking a fight against most of the free world. Now go check out Could Taiwan Hold Off A Chinese  Invasion, or click this other video instead!

2022-07-27 06:08

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